Trade conditions depressed

Wed, 18 Jun 2008

Current trade conditions are poor and the outlook for the next six months is "markedly depressed", said the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) on Tuesday.

The chamber's trade activity index, which measured the latest monthly trade conditions, fell to 43 in May, implying depressed trade conditions, said SACCI economist Richard Downing.

In December 2007 it stood at 44.

The trade expectations index, which looked forward to the next six months, fell to 46, its lowest level since SACCI started the survey in August 2001.

"The low TEI is a continuation of a downward trend that started in February 2007, and declined from a high of 70 in January 2007 to the current 46 – a markedly depressed outlook for the next six months."

The prospects for an improvement in trade conditions appeared uncertain and tighter financial conditions and cost pressures could further worsen the outlook.

There was no turning point in sight over the short term, said Downing.

The TEI's sub-index on sales expectations fell to 51 in April, the lowest point since August 2001. It improved marginally to 52 in May.

Employment prospects in the trade environment dug deeper into negative territory in May as the sub-index declined further from 47 to 46.