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<p>The unrest in South Africa under the guise of former President Jacob Zuma’s incarceration has included the burning of trucks and blockages of main transport routes. The South African Chamber is Commerce &#038; Industry has noted however that the violence has been happening intermittently, even before Zuma’s jailing. So what really is going on? Gavin Kelly, CEO of The Road Freight Association joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Road Freight Association CEO on how the unrest impacts SA’s economy

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<p>Peter Armitage, CEO of Anchor Capital joins CNBC Africa to unpack the company’s strategy and asset allocation for the third quarter of 2021.</p>


SA equities: Where to find value

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<p>Violence gripped South Africa’s main economic hubs for a fifth day after the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma. At least 30 people have been killed with damage estimated at more than 2 billion rand so far. While stocks gained, the rand dropped for a second day. Joining CNBC Africa to assess the cost of the disruptions is Business Unity South Africa’s Cas Coovadia and Adrian Saville, Investment Specialist at General Capital.</p>


Counting the cost of South Africa’s political unrest

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<p>With unrest in parts of the country persisting today, questions remain on whether the damage caused during the looting will be covered by insurance. Cedric Masondo, Managing Director of Sasria joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Unrest in SA : Government insurer Sasria estimates $3bn in claims

Unrest in SA: Government insurer Sasria estimates $3bn in claims

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<p>The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry has weighed in on the protests. SACCI has condemned the looting of businesses but it says the violent protests have been happening intermittently now for many months and precedes the recent constitutional court ruling against the former President. So is this all about Zuma? Joining CNBC Africa for more is Alan Mukoki, CEO of SACCI.</p>


SA violence precedes Zuma ruling

SA violence precedes Zuma ruling,  says SACCI CEO Alan Mukoki

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<p>The South African National Defence Force has deployed the army to help quell  violent protests and incidents of looting that have engulfed parts of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. NatJOINTS spokesperson Colonel Brenda Muridili joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


SANDF deploys soldiers to Gauteng

SANDF deploys soldiers to Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal amid violent protests

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<p>It is of course the big story of the day. President Jacob Zuma spent his first night behind bars for being in contempt of court. Joining CNBC Africa to talk through the political and economic implications of this is Lord Peter Hain, former Anti- Apartheid activist and Daniel Silke, Political Economy Analyst.</p>


Analysis: Why Zuma’s incarceration is a vote of confidence for SA’s future

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<p>It&#8217;s been and eventful weekend for the ANC and its formerly president Jacob Zuma has been sentenced to 15 months behind bars for being in contempt of court. Last week Zuma brought a rescission application which the Constitutional Court has agreed to hear. But what are the economic impact of this? Joining CNBC Africa for more is Deon Gouws, Chief Investments Officer at Credo Wealth.</p>


Credo Wealth’s Deon Gouws explains why investors are closely watching the Zuma sentencing saga

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<p>Joining CNBC Africa for a conversation on what has been moving the markets today, including the Constitutional Court ruling against Jacob Zuma is Makwe Masilela, Chief Investment Officer at Makwe Fund Managers &#038; Johann Els, Chief Economist at Old Mutual Investment Group.</p>


Here’s how markets are reacting to the ConCourt judgement against Zuma

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<p>The South African Constitutional Court has found former President Jacob Zuma guilty of contempt of court and sentenced him to 15 months behind bars. This is for failing to appear before the State Capture Commission of Inquiry. Zuma was given five days to hand himself over to the authorities. Joining CNBC Africa for analysis of this ruling is Political Analyst, Ongama Mtimka.</p>


Zuma judgement reaffirms confidence in judicial system

Zuma judgement reaffirms confidence in judicial system, says Political Analyst Ongama Mtimka

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<p>All eyes in South Africa are on the ANC, as the governing party scrambles to reign in corruption. President Cyril Ramaphosa committed to rooting out corruption from the beginning of his term. The theft of COVID-19 relief funds has put pressure for him to fulfil his promise and to hold perpetrators accountable. Joining CNBC Africa to provide insights into Ramaphosa’s attempts to clean up the ANC is Daniel Silke, Director at Political Futures Consultancy.</p>


Why this analyst believes Ramaphosa emerged stronger from the ANC NEC meeting


<p>JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s former president Jacob Zuma, facing trial for graft, lashed out at his successor Cyril Ramaphosa on Friday, accusing him of betraying the ruling African National Congress (ANC) with his stance against corruption.</p>



<p>In an unprecedented attack, Zuma, whose decade in power was marked by multiple corruption scandals that are still being investigated, accused Ramaphosa of bringing the party into disrepute &#8211; a sign of growing divisions within the ANC ahead of its national executive committee conference this weekend.</p>



<p>Zuma himself faces multiple investigations for corruption, including a trial relating to a $2 billion arms deal before he took office in 2009, but he retains considerable support from a powerful faction within the ANC. He denies all charges.</p>



<p>Ramaphosa has ordered investigations into reports of corruption in the government’s COVID-19 response, including the diversion of funds meant for protective equipment for COVID-19 medics, as well as food handouts.</p>



<p>Many scandals have involved junior ANC members conspiring with family-owned businesses to defraud COVID-19 funds.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gettyimages-1006175054-594x594-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-374814" width="692" height="1034" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gettyimages-1006175054-594x594-1.jpg 397w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/gettyimages-1006175054-594x594-1-201x300.jpg 201w" sizes="(max-width: 692px) 100vw, 692px" /><figcaption>South African President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses a media conference at the end of the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg on  July 27, 2018, as the heads of the BRICS group &#8212; Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa &#8212; met in Johannesburg for an annual summit dominated by the risk of a US-led trade war. &#8211; Five of the biggest emerging economies on July 26, stood by the multilateral system and vowed to strengthen economic cooperation in the face of US tariff threats and unilateralism. (Photo by Themba Hadebe / POOL / AFP)        (Photo credit should read THEMBA HADEBE/AFP via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



<p>This week Ramaphosa wrote a letter to ANC members saying its “leaders stand accused of corruption” and that the ANC “does stand as accused number one.”</p>



<p>Zuma, who has so far desisted from making explicit public attacks on his successor, said in response:</p>



<p>“You are the first president of the ANC to stand in public and accuse the ANC of criminality &#8230;. This is a devastating statement &#8230; I view your letter as a diversion by which you accuse the entire ANC in order to save your own skin.”</p>



<p>Divisions within the ANC could make it harder for Ramaphosa &#8211; whose presidency has been dogged by opposition from factions in the party since he took office 2-1/2 years ago &#8211; to push through economic reforms needed to revive South Africa’s struggling economy.</p>



<p>Since taking power after winning its struggle against white minority rule in 1994, the ANC has been a broad coalition of groups whose disagreements often make it impossible to push through policies.</p>


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South Africa’s ex-leader Zuma, accused of graft, hits out at successor

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<p>This morning seven people were expected to appear in the Palm Ridge magistrates court in Kathlehong Johannesburg for their alleged involvement in stealing billions of rand from small time savers withe VBS Mutual Bank. It is highly likely that the investigation will widen &#8211; say insiders. CNBC Africa’s Chris Bishop filed this report.</p>


VBS Bank Heist: Hawks

VBS Bank Heist: Hawks, NPA make first arrests


<p>South Africa&#8217;s Moody&#8217;s reprieve is over. The rating agency, the last to rate the country investment grade, has cut South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to junk <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/2020/03/27/moodys-to-cut-south-africas-sovereign-credit-rating-to-junk-economists/">in line with economists&#8217; forecast</a>. This comes as the country&#8217;s recession deepened by the impact of COVID-19 frustrates its economic reform efforts and stifles its plans to reduce government debt.</p>



<p>The action will result in South Africa&#8217;s expulsion from the World Government Bond Index (WGBI), as a consequence those funds tracking this index as a benchmark will become forced sellers.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/insights/sa-downgrade/2017/11/24/sa-downgrade-2/">Analysts have warned </a>that the magnitude of this forced selling could be as high as $8 billion (R141 billion at R17.64 exchange rate).&nbsp; </p>



<p><em>Moody&#8217;s issued the following statement explaining its reasons:</em> </p>



<p>Moody&#8217;s Investors Service, (&#8220;Moody&#8217;s&#8221;) has today downgraded the Government of South Africa&#8217;s long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings to Ba1 from Baa3. The outlook remains negative.<br><br>A Ba1 rating is judged to have speculative elements and a significant credit risk. </p>



<p><strong>READ:</strong> <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/financial/2020/03/28/governments-response-to-moodys-downgrade-of-sa-to-junk-status/">SA government&#8217;s response to Moody&#8217;s downgrade </a></p>



<p>The key driver behind the rating downgrade to Ba1 is the continuing deterioration in fiscal strength and structurally very weak growth, which Moody&#8217;s does not expect current policy settings to address effectively.</p>



<p>Both outcomes speak to weaker economic and fiscal policy effectiveness than Moody&#8217;s previously assumed.</p>



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<p>The negative outlook reflects the risk that economic growth will prove even weaker and the debt burden will rise even faster and further than currently expected, weakening debt affordability and potentially, access to funding.</p>



<p>Moody&#8217;s also downgraded South Africa&#8217;s long-term foreign-currency and local-currency senior unsecured debt ratings to Ba1 from Baa3, its  foreign-currency senior unsecured MTN and senior unsecured Shelf ratings to (P)Ba1 from (P)Baa3, as well as its foreign-currency other short-term rating to (P)NP from (P)P-3.</p>



<p>In a related action, Moody&#8217;s downgraded ZAR Sovereign Capital Fund Propriety Limited&#8217;s foreign currency, backed senior unsecured debt rating to Ba1 from Baa3 and maintained its negative outlook. ZAR Sovereign </p>



<p>Capital Fund Propriety Limited is a special purpose vehicle whose debt issuance is ultimately the obligation of the South African government.</p>



<p>All South Africa&#8217;s long-term country risk ceilings were revised down by one notch. Its long-term local-currency bond and bank deposits ceilings were revised down to A3 from A2, and the long-term foreign-currency bond ceilings to Baa1 from A3. The short-term bond foreign-currency ceiling remained unchanged at Prime-2. Moody&#8217;s also lowered the long-term foreign-currency bank deposits ceilings to Ba1 from Baa3 and the short-term foreign-currency bank deposits ceiling to Not Prime(NP) from Prime-3.</p>



<p><strong>RATINGS RATIONALE</strong></p>



<p><strong>RATIONALE FOR THE RATING DOWNGRADE TO Ba1</strong></p>



<p><strong>STRUCTURALLY VERY WEAK GROWTH AND CONSTRAINED CAPACITY TO STIMULATE THE</strong></p>



<p><strong>ECONOMY</strong></p>



<p>Unreliable electricity supply, persistent weak business confidence and investment as well as long-standing structural labour market rigidities continue to constrain South Africa&#8217;s economic growth. As a result, South Africa is entering a period of much lower global growth in an economically vulnerable position. The government&#8217;s own capacity to limit the economic deterioration, in the current shock and more durably is constrained. Fiscal space is very limited and looser monetary policy will not address underlying structural problems. The unprecedented deterioration in the global economic outlook caused by the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak will exacerbate the South Africa&#8217;s economic and fiscal challenges and will complicate the emergence of effective policy responses.</p>



<p>Progress on structural economic reforms has been very limited. Some initiatives to improve competition and encourage job creation have progressed, but none that constitute a step-change for the economy. </p>



<p>Structural issues such as labour market rigidities and uncertainty over property rights generated by the planned land reform remain unaddressed. </p>



<p>Moreover, a strategy to stabilize electricity production has been slow to emerge and has yet to prove its effectiveness. Moody&#8217;s assumes that while power supply will become more reliable, the restoration of full capacity will take some years to complete. As a result, after the immediate sharp downturn, growth will remain very low in the following years.</p>



<p><strong>INEXORABLE RISE IN GOVERNMENT DEBT OVER THE MEDIUM TERM</strong></p>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s debt burden will rise over the next five years under any plausible economic and fiscal scenario.</p>



<p>Debt-to-GDP increased by 10 percentage points (ppts) over 2014-18 and will rise by a further 22 ppts over 2019-23 under Moody&#8217;s baseline projections. Over that timeframe, Moody&#8217;s expects primary deficits to persist. The fiscal deficit will widen in fiscal 2020 to around 8.5% of </p>



<p>GDP, as revenue declines this year, only narrowing very gradually thereafter. Fiscal strains from interest payments and support to state-owned enterprises will continue.</p>



<p>In this context, and consistent with the recently announced budget, any fiscal consolidation will rest primarily on containing the large and growing public sector wage bill. The government aims to achieve ZAR160 billion (3% of GDP) in savings over the next three fiscal years by keeping wage growth below inflation. That would mark a material departure from current agreements and past outcomes, and as such is likely to prove challenging to implement. Moody&#8217;s expects expenditure on wages to exceed budget at least in 2020.</p>



<p>Interest rates are likely to rise above the levels assumed in the budget and nominal growth will be weaker. Moody&#8217;s estimates that the debt burden will reach 91% of GDP by fiscal 2023, inclusive of the guarantees to state-owned enterprises from 69% at end of fiscal 2019. Even if the government&#8217;s plans to restrain wage growth were fully implemented, debt-to-GDP would still continue to rise significantly. Similarly, even under a scenario of more effective improvement in tax compliance and falling interest rates from fiscal 2021, government debt would still rise to around 87% by 2023.</p>



<p><strong>RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK</strong></p>



<p>The negative outlook reflects downside risks around economic growth and fiscal metrics, that could lead to an even more rapid and sizeable increase in the debt burden, further lowering debt affordability and potentially weakening South Africa&#8217;s access to funding.</p>



<p>Downside risks to growth are both immediate and longer term, relating to heightened uncertainty about the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic and to the possibility that negative economic sentiment becomes further entrenched as policymakers and stakeholders continue to struggle to reach consensus on the structural reforms that would sustainably stimulate growth and employment. With unemployment at already very high levels (29%), even weaker growth would have significantly negative social implications.</p>



<p>Should these downside risks materialise, South Africa&#8217;s government debt would stabilise later and at a higher level than currently expected by Moody&#8217;s. A steeper increase in debt would weaken debt affordability, potentially challenging the government&#8217;s currently strong access to funding at manageable costs, particularly during periods of acute risk aversion by global investors such as at present. Although South Africa&#8217;s exposure to global financing conditions is mitigated by its reliance on local currency debt, its weak economic and fiscal fundamentals could exacerbate adverse capital flows.</p>



<p>ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS</p>



<p>Environmental risk influences Moody&#8217;s assessment of South Africa&#8217;s economic resilience. Due to its geographical location, South Africa is subject to frequent climate change-related shocks such as droughts which undermine the agricultural sector&#8217;s performance and weigh on growth. Set against that, the country&#8217;s economic diversification and sophisticated agricultural techniques mitigate the impact of environmental considerations on South Africa&#8217;s credit profile.</p>



<p>Social considerations are material for South Africa&#8217;s credit profile and their implications for the economy and public finances are a driver of the rating downgrade. Deep socio-economic inequalities complicate the implementation of reforms that would otherwise unlock the economy&#8217;s significant potential. They also contribute to tensions and resistance from key stakeholders that ultimately fuel political risk.</p>



<p>Governance considerations are material to South Africa&#8217;s credit profile. South Africa&#8217;s ranking under the Worldwide Governance Indicators is stronger than Ba1-rated sovereigns, and the strength of key institutions, </p>



<p>in particular the South African Reserve Bank and the Treasury, support the rating. However, the broader erosion in institutional strength induced by the wide-spread corruption of the Zuma administration is an important factor behind the erosion in South Africa&#8217;s credit profile in recent years. Moreover, the legacy that era has bequeathed of poor governance of state-owned enterprisess remains a key drain on fiscal resources.</p>



<p><strong>WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP</strong></p>



<p>Given the negative outlook a rating upgrade is unlikely
in the near future.</p>



<p>Moody&#8217;s would likely change the rating outlook to stable if the government&#8217;s medium-term fiscal consolidation were to proceed broadly in line with the rating agency&#8217;s central expectations, with prospects of a slow but durable pick-up in growth and financing risks remaining low. In this scenario, Moody&#8217;s would likely see a gradual reduction in South Africa&#8217;s primary deficit in the next few years, with increasing assurance that government debt will stabilize comfortably below 90% of GDP.</p>



<p><strong>WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN</strong></p>



<p>South Africa&#8217;s ratings would likely be downgraded if Moody&#8217;s were to conclude that any combination of very weak growth, failure to reduce the primary deficit, and rising financing costs was likely to cause the debt burden to rise to even higher levels than currently projected with even greater uncertainty regarding its eventual stabilisation, in turn threatening South Africa&#8217;s access to funding at manageable costs. Such an outcome would speak to weaker institutional policymaking capacity and, over time, a diminution of economic and fiscal strength consistent with lower rating levels.</p>



<p>Important indicators in this regard include the government&#8217;s ability over the next year or so to contain the impact of global recession on the South African economy and to promote recovery thereafter; to agree and begin to implement the structural reforms that would strengthen the economy. The implementation of the framework for a reliable supply of power to the economy and fiscal reforms to contain expenditure and enhance revenues are important milestones.</p>


Moody’s downgrades SA to junk


<p>JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) has rejected former president Jacob Zuma’s application to appeal a lower court’s decision that he should stand trial for corruption, a registrar of the court said on Friday.  </p>



<p>According to the local news agency Eye Witness News, the SCA ruled that Zuma’s appeal against an October decision by the Pietermaritzburg High Court had “no reasonable prospects of success”. </p>



<p>Zuma, in office from 2009-2018, had applied for the stay of prosecution for alleged fraud, racketeering and money laundering relating to a deal to buy European military equipment for South Africa’s armed forces in the 1990s. </p>



<p>The French defence firm Thales, accused of agreeing to pay Zuma around $34,000 annually for protection from an investigation into the $2 billion arms deal, and set to stand trial this year along with the former leader, had also appealed the decision.  </p>



<p>Both Zuma and Thales had their appeals rejected, the court said. </p>



<p>(Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana and Alexander Winning; Editing by Kevin Liffey)</p>



<p>This article was first published on Reuters Africa <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN2101R4-OZATP">https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN2101R4-OZATP</a> and is republished with its permission.</p>


Former president Zuma’s bid to stop corruption trial is rejected

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<p>Former president Jacob Zuma’s court bid to avoid his corruption charges going to trial has been dismissed in the Pietermaritzburg high court. The former president will face the court next week to face the charges against him. Joining CNBC Africa for more is Advocate Mfesane Ka-Siboto.</p>


Jacob Zuma loses bid to have corruption case dismissed

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<p>The United States Treasury has added Atul, Ajay and Tony Gupta to its sanctions list as “members of a significant corruption network in South Africa” that looted state coffers. The family has been accused of state capture as a consequence of their close relationship with former President Jacob Zuma. CNBC Africa&#8217;s Karabo Letlhatlha spoke to the Acting Ambassador to South Africa, David Young.</p>


Jacob Zuma

Road Freight Association CEO on how the unrest impacts SA’s economy

SA equities: Where to find value

Counting the cost of South Africa’s political unrest

Unrest in SA: Government insurer Sasria estimates $3bn in claims

SA violence precedes Zuma ruling, says SACCI CEO Alan Mukoki

SANDF deploys soldiers to Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal amid violent protests

Analysis: Why Zuma’s incarceration is a vote of confidence for SA’s future

Credo Wealth’s Deon Gouws explains why investors are closely watching the Zuma sentencing saga

Here’s how markets are reacting to the ConCourt judgement against Zuma

Zuma judgement reaffirms confidence in judicial system, says Political Analyst Ongama Mtimka

Why this analyst believes Ramaphosa emerged stronger from the ANC NEC meeting

South Africa’s ex-leader Zuma, accused of graft, hits out at successor

VBS Bank Heist: Hawks, NPA make first arrests

Moody’s downgrades SA to junk

Former president Zuma’s bid to stop corruption trial is rejected

Jacob Zuma loses bid to have corruption case dismissed

U.S places Gupta brothers on sanction list

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Jacob Zuma

Road Freight Association CEO on how the unrest impacts SA’s economy

SA equities: Where to find value

Counting the cost of South Africa’s political unrest

Unrest in SA: Government insurer Sasria estimates $3bn in claims

SA violence precedes Zuma ruling, says SACCI CEO Alan Mukoki

SANDF deploys soldiers to Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal amid violent protests

Analysis: Why Zuma’s incarceration is a vote of confidence for SA’s future

Credo Wealth’s Deon Gouws explains why investors are closely watching the Zuma sentencing saga

Here’s how markets are reacting to the ConCourt judgement against Zuma

Zuma judgement reaffirms confidence in judicial system, says Political Analyst Ongama Mtimka

Why this analyst believes Ramaphosa emerged stronger from the ANC NEC meeting

South Africa’s ex-leader Zuma, accused of graft, hits out at successor

VBS Bank Heist: Hawks, NPA make first arrests

Moody’s downgrades SA to junk

Former president Zuma’s bid to stop corruption trial is rejected

Jacob Zuma loses bid to have corruption case dismissed

U.S places Gupta brothers on sanction list

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