By Moody&#8217;s 



Summary » The global spread of the coronavirus is resulting in simultaneous supply and demand shocks. We expect these shocks to materially slow economic activity, particularly in the first half of this year. We have therefore revised our 2020 baseline growth forecasts for all G-20 economies. We expect these countries, as a group, to grow by 2.1% in 2020, 0.3 percentage point lower than our previous forecast. We have lowered our 2020 forecast for China&#8217;s growth to 4.8% from our previous estimate of 5.2%. For the US, we now expect real GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2020, down from our previous estimate of 1.7%. » The full extent of the economic costs will be unclear for some time. Fear of contagion will dampen consumer and business activity. The longer it takes for households and businesses to resume normal activity, the greater the economic impact. » Global recession risks have risen. The longer the outbreak affects economic activity, the demand shock will dominate and lead to recessionary dynamics. In particular, a sustained pullback in consumption, coupled with extended closures of businesses, would hurt earnings, drive layoffs and weigh on sentiment. Such conditions could ultimately feed self-sustaining recessionary dynamics. Heightened asset price volatility would magnify the shock. » Fiscal and monetary policy measures will likely help limit the damage in individual economies. Policy announcements from fiscal authorities, central banks and international organizations so far suggest that policy response is likely to be strong in affected countries. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points and the announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan assuring policy support will limit global financial market volatility and partly counter the tightening of financial conditions.



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Moody’s cuts SA’s growth forecast on the back of Coronavirus

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With continued tensions between the U.S and Iran, oil shoots up a further 2 per cent today, pushing Brent above $70 a barrel. How will this surge of oil prices affect South Africa and its economic position for 2020? Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist at Investec joins CNBC Africa for more.

Will tensions between Iran and the U.S affect SA – if so

Will tensions between Iran and the U.S affect SA – if so, how?

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Africa is a marketplace of over a billion people to whom China has since year 2000 lent $125 billion, according to the Washington John Hopkins University.

SA, China in dialogue over transport economies

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Announced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the Belt road initiative is a double trade corridor set to reopen channels between China and its neighbours in the West, Asia, the Middle East and Europe alongside Africa with over $800 billion committed in financing. CNBC Africa&#8217;s Arnold Segawa who spoke to Lin Songtian, China Ambassador to South Africa.

SA, China partnership growing African economies

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Africa Regional Data Cube hopes to leverage emerging potential of satellite technology to be used by Africans to innovatively fight illegal mining, understand crop distribution, changing seasons, and use of agricultural land in rural areas.

Satellite technology: Can it be the answer to Africa’s challenges

Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Sujata Rao
A row over central bank independence could worsen South Africa&#8217;s bond sell-off after foreign investors last week dumped the biggest amount of the country&#8217;s securities in nearly five months over new ownership rules for mining companies.
Any erosion of central bank independence is likely to spook investors even more.
Foreigners were net sellers of local bonds last week, dumping 2.2 billion rand ($169 million) worth of debt, the biggest weekly sell-off since early February, Johannesburg Stock Exchange data showed.
Offshore investors then sold 1.1 billion rand in bonds on Monday, after the idea of changing the central bank&#8217;s mandate was floated, buying back 1.5 billion rand worth on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank said it would fight the proposal in court.
South African pension funds have already cut their holdings in local government bonds to the lowest level in nearly 4-1/2 years because of political turbulence in the country.
But yield-hungry foreign investors &#8212; who are the largest holders of South African government bonds &#8212; have been more resilient so far.
<div class="teads-inread"> This is partly because South Africa is in the Citi WGBI index, followed by many funds, and local debt is rated investment grade by two major agencies. If it lost that rating over central bank independence, up to $10 billion could flow out, analysts have estimated .</div>
S&amp;P Global Ratings has already warned South Africa that its rating could be cut deeper if the government meddles with the central bank.
The dispute &#8212; triggered by Public Protector Busi Mkhwebane recommending that the Reserve Bank&#8217;s mandate of maintaining currency and price stability be changed so that it can focus on economic growth &#8212; could hardly have come at a worse time.
South Africa has just sunk into recession, had its credit rating downgraded, and is echoing to calls for President Jacob Zuma to resign, which he shows no sign of doing so.
John Peta, Old Mutual Global Investors head of emerging market debt, said his firm bought South African debt after a March cabinet shake-up that sent yields higher. But it had now cut back on the ongoing political noise and as yields fall.
&#8220;No previous government in South Africa has even hinted at (changing the central bank mandate) and Zuma&#8217;s people now doing it is pretty disconcerting,&#8221; Peta said. &#8220;So if they do make more noise in that direction certainly the market will take notice
TOO OPTIMISTIC
Morgan Stanley analysts said they believe investors are too optimistic about a resolution on the uncertainty.
&#8220;We are bearish on South Africa,&#8221; the analysts wrote in a note, adding: &#8220;We believe that the main factors supporting the currency and bonds – attractive real bond yields and a gradually improving terms of trade – will start to lose importance gradually as evidence grows that recent political changes continue to have negative macroeconomic consequences.&#8221;
Investors were already shaken in late March when Zuma dismissed respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan, triggering credit ratings downgrades to &#8220;junk&#8221; status.
The yield on the benchmark government bond due in 2026 rose to a 4-month high of 9.2 percent in the aftermath of Gordhan&#8217;s axing, but has since recovered to 8.55 percent.
In another blow to investor confidence Moody&#8217;s and Fitch have warned that new rules, which raised the minimum threshold for black ownership of mining companies to 30 percent from 26 percent, could deter investment. The rules are meant to redress the exclusion black people experienced during apartheid, which ended in 1994.
The Chamber of Mines, which represents mining firms, plans to challenge the new rules in court.
&#8220;There is no light in the tunnel for growth,&#8221; Richard Segal, an emerging debt strategist at Manulife Asset Management. If inflation comes down, you could see some interest rate cuts which could help a bit, but the overall picture for the South African markets is still uninspiring.&#8221;
($1 = 13.0258 rand)
(Additional reporting by Karin Strohecker and Claire Milhench in London; Editing by James Macharia/Jeremy Gaunt)

South Africa’s credibility on the line with foreign bond investors

PRETORIA (Reuters) &#8211; Barclays Africa Group unduly benefited from apartheid-era bailouts and must repay 1.1 billion rand ($86 million), South Africa&#8217;s anti-graft watchdog said on Monday.
Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane in January reopened a probe of Barclays South Africa following a wider report published last November by her predecessor.
She said on Monday that the probe had found that the apartheid government breached the constitution by supplying Bankorp, which was acquired by Barclays Africa unit Absa in 1992, with a series of bailouts from 1986 to 1995.
Barclays Africa would have to pay 1.1 billion rand ($86 million), Mkhwebane said, adding that her office had referred the matter to the Special Investigating Unit to help recover the money.
&nbsp;
<h2>Barclays Africa response to Public Protector’s Press Conference</h2>
Absa has noted the Public Protector’s statement today regarding her investigation into the SA Reserve Bank’s assistance to Bankorp between 1985 and 1995. Absa acquired Bankorp in April 1992. We have not yet received a copy of the report and we are urgently requesting the Public Protector’s Office to send it to us. Once we have read it we will consider our legal options including seeking a High Court review.
Absa met all its obligations in respect of the loan provided by the SA Reserve Bank by October 1995. It is our firm position that there is no obligation to pay anything to the SA government.
(Reporting by Dinky Mkhize; writing by Ed Stoddard and Tiisetso Motsoeneng; editing by James Macharia and Jason Neely)

Barclays Africa says “no obligation” to pay SA govt

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa could see a spike in bad loans as the first recession since 2009 hits millions of chronically indebted consumers struggling to pay back credit totalling 1.7 trillion rand ($133.19 billion), the National Credit Regulator (NCR) said on Wednesday.
Africa&#8217;s most developed economy slipped into recession in the first quarter, compounding a slew of negative economic indicators including sovereign rating downgrades and stubbornly high unemployment.
<blockquote>&#8220;Already we&#8217;ve got a lot of accounts, more than a third, that are impaired and the percentages might go up. So we are worried,&#8221; Nomsa Motshegare, the NCR chief executive told Reuters.</blockquote>
&#8220;There must be responsible borrowing but also responsible lending,&#8221; she said after briefing parliament where changes to the National Credit Act were being considered to help relieve over-indebted consumers.
Motshegare said at the end of December, there were around 24 million active credit consumers, with 40 percent, or just under 10 million people, having some form of &#8220;impaired record&#8221; of payment.
Unbridled lending fuelled a consumer frenzy that lifted growth to an average 5 percent annually in the period before the 2009 recession, before the government introduced legislation clamping down on irresponsible lending.
The National Treasury, which has previously introduced a debt amnesty to assist poor and indebted consumers, said they were considering a number of options, including &#8220;extinguishing&#8221; some or all debt to help people get a fresh start.
<blockquote>&#8220;If a person can pay, he or she should pay,&#8221; said Katherine Gibson, senior adviser for market conduct and inclusion at the treasury.</blockquote>
Gibson told parliament&#8217;s trade and industry committee that further research was needed to determine the impact of possible debt relief packages, which was expected to heavily impact retailers and microlenders.
&#8220;It is expected to heavily impact access to credit and is likely to push desperate people to illegal operators,&#8221; she said.
($1 = 12.7642 rand)
(Reporting by Wendell Roelf, editing by Louise Heavens)
&nbsp;

South African credit regulator sees rise in impairments amid recession

Ratings agency Moody&#8217;s Investors Service downgraded South Africa&#8217;s state-owned utility Eskom on Tuesday following the lowering of the country&#8217;s credit rating last week and said the outlook for the power company was negative.
Moody&#8217;s downgraded the long-term corporate family rating of Eskom and its zero coupon euro bonds to Ba2 from Ba1, leaving it two notches below investment grade. Eskom&#8217;s probability of default rating was also downgraded to Ba2-PD from Ba1-PD.
Moody&#8217;s downgraded South Africa&#8217;s credit rating on Friday but kept it at investment grade with a negative outlook, citing a recent cabinet reshuffle and reduced growth prospects for an economy mired in recession. [nL8N1J65Y7]
&#8220;Given Eskom&#8217;s strong linkage with the South African government and its high sensitivity to changes in the sovereign credit profile, the rating downgrades primarily reflect the one-notch downgrade of South Africa&#8217;s ratings to Baa3 negative,&#8221; Moody&#8217;s said in a statement.
&#8220;The negative outlook reflects the negative outlook on the government of South Africa,&#8221; it said.
(Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; editing by David Clarke)
&nbsp;

Moody’s downgrades South Africa’s power utility Eskom

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s central bank is wary of cutting interest rates to support economic growth until it is convinced an improved inflation outlook can be sustained, monetary policy committee member Brian Kahn said on Thursday.
&#8220;We would not want to reduce rates and then be forced into a premature reversal of policy,&#8221; Kahn said in a speech at an investor conference.
&#8220;We see price stability as the main contribution we can make to long term growth. The current stance of monetary policy is not tight and is not a constrain to growth.&#8221;
Kahn said the central bank would likely cut its economic growth forecasts in July after data showed this week that South Africa had slipped into technical recession.
(Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Writing by Joe Brock; Editing by TJ Strydom)
&nbsp;

South Africa’s central bank wary of cutting rates: Kahn

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s cabinet has confirmed Dondo Mogajane as permanent director general at national treasury, it said on Thursday.
Lungisa Fuzile resigned as the department&#8217;s highest official shortly after his political head, Pravin Gordhan, was removed as finance minister.
Mogajane has worked for the department since 1999 and was most recently the deputy director-general responsible for public finance.
(Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Writing by Joe Brock; Editing by Ed Stoddard)
&nbsp;

South Africa’s Dondo Mogajane confirmed as treasury’s director general

Mfuneko Toyana | JOHANNESBURG
South African bonds priced in a higher likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the central bank sooner than anticipated after the economy unexpectedly slipped into recession and raised the risk of further credit downgrades.
Forward rate markets on Wednesday were pricing in a nearly 30 percent chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the next policy meeting in July, up from a 9 percent probability seen before the May policy meeting.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has treaded a cautious policy path in the last 18 months, keeping benchmark rates on hold at 7 percent while signalling it had reached the end of a tightening cycle that began in early 2014.
The bank may however be pushed to act to save the economy by cutting lending rates sooner than planned to make money cheaper in a bid to boost consumer spending, analysts said.
Data on Tuesday showed the economy contracted by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017 after shrinking 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
At its policy meeting in May, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago played down the prospects of cheaper borrowing costs, citing risks to inflation posed by currency volatility in light of domestic political uncertainty and credit ratings downgrades.
Economists also said risks to inflation and the currency, posed by large capital and trade deficits, had faded.
<blockquote>&#8220;For a whole host of reasons the prospect of a rate cut has definitely increased. The bank could very well prioritise growth, putting it higher than has been case where inflation has been front and centre,&#8221; said director ETM Analytics George Glynos.</blockquote>
&#8220;These traditional drags on the rand are no longer there and as a result they will probably feel a lot more comfortable in reducing interest rates.&#8221;
The country&#8217;s trade balance swung to a 11.4 billion rand surplus in March and has remained in the black since then, while the current account narrowed to a six-year low in the first quarter.
&#8220;Cutting next year would be too late and that will have driven the economy into a permanent recession,&#8221; said senior economist at Old Mutual Johann Els.
&#8220;Cutting rates now would potentially boost confidence and the growth outlook and that would be positive for rating expectations because the agencies have said they&#8217;re looking for growth possibilities that will aid fiscal sustainability.&#8221;
(Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; editing by Mark Heinrich)
&nbsp;

Markets see South Africa cutting rates to boost growth

Nqobile Dludla | JOHANNESBURG
South African cement maker PPC reported a 93 percent decline in full-year earnings on Wednesday due to a liquidity crisis precipitated by the cut in its credit rating to junk status.
PPC, which is still negotiating a possible merger with rival Afrisam, said headline earnings per share fell to 7 cents from 107 cents in the comparable period last year.
S&amp;P Global Ratings (S&amp;P) downgraded the company&#8217;s long- and short-term South African national scale corporate credit ratings to zaBB- and zaB respectively in May 2016.
(Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Sunil Nair)
&nbsp;

South Africa’s PPC’s FY profit slumps on S&P downgrade

PRETORIA
South Africa slipped into technical recession for the first time since 2009 after the economy contracted in the first quarter, led by weak manufacturing and trade sectors, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday.
Africa&#8217;s most developed economy contracted by 0.7 percent in the first quarter after shrinking by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, the statistics agency said.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a quarter-on-quarter GDP expansion of 0.9 percent.
Gross domestic product rose 1.0 percent on an unadjusted year-on-year basis in the first quarter, compared with 0.7 percent contraction in the previous three months, the agency said.

South Africa slips into recession as economy shrinks in Q1

Ed Stoddard | JOHANNESBURG
Around 2.8 billion rand ($215 million) in pension funds, some of it going back to the 1970s, has been uncollected by ex-miners and their families who are entitled to the money, South Africa&#8217;s Chamber of Mines said on Wednesday.
The mining industry in South Africa is under pressure from the government to deal with &#8220;legacy issues&#8221; from the apartheid era, when it relied heavily on cheap, migrant labour from rural areas and neighbouring countries.
Unpaid pensions for rural families in such areas, where many households rely on subsistence farming, could be the difference between abject poverty and a more secure lifestyle.
<blockquote>&#8220;One of the legacy issues is related to pension funds and the pension fund amounts that are due to ex-mine workers and their families,&#8221; chamber Chief Executive Roger Baxter told journalists after the organisation&#8217;s annual general meeting.</blockquote>
&#8220;This is where a mine worker left the industry, did not collect his or her pension, and went to the rural areas or neighbouring countries. They have not collected on it and don&#8217;t know they are entitled to it, or their family if that person has passed on,&#8221; he said,
Neighbouring countries that have provided labour historically to South Africa&#8217;s mines include Lesotho, Swaziland, Mozambique and until the 1970s, Malawi.
Baxter said there was about 4.5 billion rand in uncollected pensions going back but 1.7 billion had now been paid to former miners or their families who had been tracked down and identified.
&#8220;We don&#8217;t control the pension funds, but we have trustees who sit on those pension funds and what we are trying to do as the chamber is to help them in the search for people,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;Workers often worked in multiple operations so you didn&#8217;t have just one unique reference number to an employee. They would get different reference numbers so there is a bit of complexity to this issue,&#8221; he said.
($1 = 12.9200 rand)
(Editing by Susan Thomas)

S.Africa mining chamber says $215 mln in pensions uncollected by ex-miners

Ed Stoddard  JOHANNESBURG
South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, seen as a top contender to lead the ruling ANC into 2019 general elections, said on Sunday that the country must not become a &#8220;mafia state&#8221; as he admitted his party had become associated with corruption.
Ramaphosa&#8217;s comments were among the strongest he has made on governance as the race heats up to replace President Jacob Zuma, whose administration has been hit by scandals and missteps, prompting street protests and calls for him to resign or be removed.
In televised remarks at an event in the platinum mining town of Rustenburg organised by the South African Communist Party (SACP), Ramaphosa responded to a warning this week from the influential South African Council of Churches that graft is turning South Africa into a mafia state.
<blockquote>&#8220;If we as the ANC are to counter this grave threat, if the ANC is to recover its leadership role in society, then it is absolutely imperative that we act with urgency and purpose and make sure that we never become a mafia state,&#8221; Ramaphosa said.
&#8220;Because once we become a mafia state all the wheels have come off,&#8221; said Ramaphosa, whose delivery was at times passionate, a marked contrast to his normally reserved manner.</blockquote>
The SACP setting was a pointed one as the party is a key political ally of the ANC and has called for Zuma to resign.
Relations between Zuma and Ramaphosa, 64, a former trade union organiser who led negotiations to end white rule in 1994, have become increasingly strained, according to local media reports.
Zuma has consistently denied allegations of corruption leveled against him, his government and some associates, and branded protesters calling for his resignation &#8220;racist&#8221;.
Clad in a leather jacket bearing the ANC&#8217;s black, green and gold colours, Ramaphosa said the party was saddled with an image problem when it came to corruption.
&#8220;In the public mind, the ANC and its government are increasingly associated, fairly or unfairly, with wrong things that the public continues to see us doing. Like corruption, like pursuing narrow personal enrichment,&#8221; he said.
Ramaphosa also said that he had met with ratings agency Moody&#8217;s on Friday and their view was that the ANC was on the verge of a split. He said he assured them that would not happen.
Both S&amp;P Global Ratings and Fitch downgraded South Africa&#8217;s credit rating to below investment grade in April after Zuma fired respected former Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, a move Ramaphosa opposed and triggered nationwide unrest.
Zuma is to step down as head of the ANC in December but can remain head of state until the 2019 elections. He has signaled his preference that his ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a former cabinet minister and head of the African Union, replace him.
(Editing by Richard Lough)
&nbsp;

Deputy President Ramaphosa says South Africa must avoid “mafia state” fate

Wendell Roelf | CAPE TOWN
South Africa needs to provide policy clarity to boost investor confidence, after a cabinet reshuffle and a pledge to introduce &#8220;radical economic transformation&#8221;, Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba said on Tuesday.
Gigaba&#8217;s comments echo those of President Jacob Zuma about redistributing wealth, which remains largely in the hands of the white minority more than two decades after apartheid ended, raising uncertainty about South Africa&#8217;s policy direction.
&#8220;We know that we need to continue acting conscientiously to do what we have to do, including providing policy clarity on a number of areas &#8230; to boost business and investor confidence,&#8221; Gigaba told parliament&#8217;s finance committee.
Both S&amp;P Global Ratings and Fitch downgraded South Africa&#8217;s credit rating to below investment grade last month, citing likely changes in economic policy after Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was fired, shaking investor confidence.
Lower ratings typically make it more expensive to borrow, particularly when they fall below investment grade, and risk deterring the foreign investors on whom South Africa relies to finance its big budget and balance of payments deficits.
&#8220;The debates around radical economic transformation are ongoing,&#8221; Gigaba told the finance committee. &#8220;How do you get the majority of South Africans &#8230; to participate in the economy, to own some assets, to become self-sustaining?&#8221;
He said the ruling African National Congress, which steers government policy, had not yet defined what the transformation entailed.
(Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by James Macharia, Larry King)
&nbsp;

SA

Moody’s cuts SA’s growth forecast on the back of Coronavirus

Will tensions between Iran and the U.S affect SA – if so, how?

SA, China in dialogue over transport economies

SA, China partnership growing African economies

Satellite technology: Can it be the answer to Africa’s challenges

South Africa’s credibility on the line with foreign bond investors

Barclays Africa says “no obligation” to pay SA govt

South African credit regulator sees rise in impairments amid recession

Moody’s downgrades South Africa’s power utility Eskom

South Africa’s central bank wary of cutting rates: Kahn

South Africa’s Dondo Mogajane confirmed as treasury’s director general

Markets see South Africa cutting rates to boost growth

South Africa’s PPC’s FY profit slumps on S&P downgrade

South Africa slips into recession as economy shrinks in Q1

S.Africa mining chamber says $215 mln in pensions uncollected by ex-miners

Deputy President Ramaphosa says South Africa must avoid “mafia state” fate

South Africa needs to clarify policy to boost confidence, Gigaba says

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Moody’s cuts SA’s growth forecast on the back of Coronavirus

Will tensions between Iran and the U.S affect SA – if so, how?

SA, China in dialogue over transport economies

SA, China partnership growing African economies

Satellite technology: Can it be the answer to Africa’s challenges

South Africa’s credibility on the line with foreign bond investors

Barclays Africa says “no obligation” to pay SA govt

South African credit regulator sees rise in impairments amid recession

Moody’s downgrades South Africa’s power utility Eskom

South Africa’s central bank wary of cutting rates: Kahn

South Africa’s Dondo Mogajane confirmed as treasury’s director general

Markets see South Africa cutting rates to boost growth

South Africa’s PPC’s FY profit slumps on S&P downgrade

South Africa slips into recession as economy shrinks in Q1

S.Africa mining chamber says $215 mln in pensions uncollected by ex-miners

Deputy President Ramaphosa says South Africa must avoid “mafia state” fate

South Africa needs to clarify policy to boost confidence, Gigaba says

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