By Susan Mathew
June 10 (Reuters) – Emerging market shares rose for the first time in seven sessions on Thursday with heavyweight China shares rallying on high-level Sino-U.S. talks, while currencies rose ahead of U.S. inflation data and the European Central Bank’s policy decision.
Mainland China shares rose around half a percent after talks between respective commerce officials when they agreed to promote healthy trade and cooperate over differences that have roiled markets and dented global economic growth.
Most other Asian peers joined the rally, taking MSCI’s index of EM shares 0.4% higher. It had lost more than 1% over the previous six sessions. South Africa and Turkey added 0.3% each.
Later in the day, the ECB is expected to keep its money taps wide open as the region recovers from and economic dent left by the pandemic, while U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT will be watched to judge what the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stand might be next week.
Any change to easy monetary policy by major central banks could see a flight from high-yielding assets of emerging markets.
Turkey’s lira extended gains to a fifth straight against both the euro and the dollar, while South Africa’s rand broke a three-day losing streak when it lost 2.5%. Losses deepened late on Wednesday when struggling power utility Eskom said it would extend power cuts.
Russia’s rouble rose 0.4% despite falling oil prices. Focus on Friday will be on a possible 50 basis point hike in interest rates.
“The strength of the Russian current account in May removes some of our recent concerns, allowing to expect USDRUB stabilisation close to the middle of the 70-75 range in June,” ING said in a client note.
“The risks of volatility going forward still remain…given the dividend season, persistent uncertainties regarding foreign policy, acceleration of imports, and continued private capital outflow.”
Interest rates in Peru later in the global day is also on the radar amid uncertainty in presidential election sending the sol currency plumbing new lows.
As inflation picks up in emerging markets, many domestcic central banks have had to raise interest rates. Higher rates will make it harder for EMs to pay record amounts of debt, the Institute of International Finance warned on Wednesday.
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX
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For RUSSIAN market report, see (Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
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