JOHANNESBURG, July 27 (Reuters) – Recent unrest in South Africa is likely to shave about 0.7% off headline GDP growth in 2021 but strong commodity prices will continue to support the economy, S&P Global ratings said.

Protests in support of former president Jacob Zuma broke out this month when he handed himself over to authorities to start a 15-month jail term for contempt of court, and escalated into riots that killed more than 300 people and caused extensive damage to businesses and infrastructure.

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“It is estimated that the unrest will likely shave about 0.7% off headline GDP growth in 2021, hit private consumption, and slow the pace of economic recovery,” S&P said in a report dated July 26.

“If the unrest were to recur and last for a long time, this would further pressure the economy and potentially stifle the rebound.”

S&P forecast that South Africa’s economy will expand by 4.2% in 2021, which is more than the Treasury’s February estimate of 3.3% growth.

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The ratings agency said it did not expect an immediate rating action, but if the unrest was repeated or prolonged, it could pose risks to ratings.

In May, S&P affirmed South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency rating of BB-, or three notches below the investment grade. It kept the country’s local currency debt at BB, both with a stable outlook.

(Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Alison Williams and Giles Elgood)