<p>LAGOS Dec 14 (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria&#8217;s President Muhammadu Buhari on Wednesday presented a record 7.298 trillion naira ($24 billion) budget for 2017 to lawmakers which is aimed at pulling Africa&#8217;s biggest economy out of its first recession in 25 years.</p>
<p>The budget, which Buhari said marked an increase of 20.4 percent on last year&#8217;s spending plan, seeks to boost spending to revive the economy. The recession was largely caused by low global oil prices, as crude sales account for two-thirds of the government&#8217;s revenue.</p>
<p><strong>READ:</strong> <a href="/news/western-africa/2016/12/14/nigerians-vent-frustration/">Nigerians vent frustration as President Buhari prepares to submit record budget﻿</a></p>
<p>Buhari said the budget was based on an exchange rate of 305 naira to the dollar and a projected oil output of 2.2 million barrels per day at an assumed price of $42.5 dollars per barrel.</p>
<p>The president also said he wants to restore oil output to 2.2 million barrels per day following a series of attacks since January on energy facilities in the southern Niger Delta that deepened the recession by hitting the economic mainstay.</p>
<p>The attacks cut oil production in the OPEC member, which stood at around 2.1 million barrels per day at the start of 2016, by more than a third earlier this year. &#8220;We must all come together&#8221; to achieve peace in the Niger Delta, Buhari said.</p>
<p>The budget must be agreed by parliament before being sent back to the president to be passed into law, which could take months. The 2016 budget became law in May after being delayed by several months by wrangling between the government and the upper house of parliament. (Additional reporting by Oludare Mayowa; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram; Editing by Chijioke Uhocha and Hugh Lawson)</p>
<div class="linebreak"></div>
<div class="pageNavigation"></div>
<p id="copyrightNotice" class="copyright">© Thomson Reuters 2016 All rights reserved﻿</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>


Nigeria's President Buhari delivers $24 billion budget for 2017

<p>Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza was hardly a household name. That was before he turned his country into a hellhole following his unconstitutional <a style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 400;" href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33590991">decision</a> in 2015 to run for a third term.</p>
<p>Burundi <a href="http://www.swarthmore.edu/SocSci/soconne1/documents/Nkurunziza.pdf">is</a> an overpopulated and immensely corrupt state. It shares much the same ethnic map as Rwanda. But it hardly attracted a fraction of the attention claimed by its neighbour to the north during and after the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/preventgenocide/rwanda/education/rwandagenocide.shtml">1994 genocide</a>. If anything, its principal claim to fame was that it successfully managed its <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2012/burundi">transition</a> to multi-party democracy after a vicious 10-year civil war.</p>
<p>The key to this remarkable achievement was a power-sharing arrangement. The arrangement gave a share of executive and legislative power to the two principal, and once bitterly antagonistic, ethnic communities, the Hutu and Tutsi. The Tutsi account for approximately 30% – this is a guesstimate as no reliable recent census figures are available – of a population of some ten million.</p>
<p>At first, the experiment seemed highly promising. It was formalised in the <a href="http://africacenter.org/spotlight/burundi-why-the-arusha-accords-are-central/">Arusha accords</a> of 2000, and later enshrined in the <a href="http://aoma.ukzn.ac.za/Libraries/Newsletters_2011/Constitution_of_Burundi_English.sflb.ashx">2005</a> constitution. It offered a striking counter-example to Rwanda’s tragic destinies. It all went well until the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32724083">failed coup</a> of May 13 2015. The coup was a desperate attempt by a group of dissident officers to seize power by force. The light was shone on the regime’s savagery. The precipitating factor was Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term, in violation of the constitution.</p>
<h2>The Burundi enigma</h2>
<p>Burundi today seems dangerously close to a Rwanda-like scenario. The Tutsi minority was targeted once again as a potential victim of genocidal violence. On closer inspection, the events of 2016 reveal a more ambivalent state of affairs. A <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/burundi-hears-echoes-anti-tutsi-hate-speech-that-sparked-rwanda-genocide-1527836">significant number</a> of Tutsi elites, civil servants, army men, journalists and human rights activists have been killed by pro-regime elements. Scores of Tutsi <a href="http://time.com/4179101/rape-burundi/">women have been raped</a>.</p>
<p>But the same could be said of the hundreds of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/29/world/africa/burundi-crackdown-puts-hutus-and-tutsis-and-the-west-on-edge.html?_r=0">Hutu victims</a>. One can’t ignore the large number of extra-judicial killings <a href="http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/burundi_report_english-2.pdf">committed</a> by anti-Nkurunziza rebels. These are opponents of Nkurunziza and both Hutu or Tutsi are targets.</p>
<p>Since 2015, <a href="http://eng.imirasire.com/news/all-around/out-of-rwanda/article/burundians-living-in-terror-after">at least</a> 1,000 people have been killed. Thousands of others have been arbitrarily arrested and tortured. An estimated 330,000 have fled their homeland to <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/burundi">neighbouring states</a>.</p>
<p>But we have to be cautious in speaking of a straight Hutu-Tutsi confrontation. The conflict is not strictly speaking ethnic. It’s political. It revolves around the pro- and anti-Nkurunziza’s third term option.</p>
<p>At the heart of the Burundi enigma lies a paradox. This is the power-sharing formula devised in the Arusha accords – the critical element behind the transition to democracy – and it still holds. Nonetheless, everything points to a diffuse yet distinctly anti-Tutsi political climate.</p>
<h2>Hutu takeover</h2>
<p>Today 60% of government positions and parliamentary seats are <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/africa/burundi1105/2.htm">controlled</a> by Hutu and 40% by Tutsi. The army, as prescribed by the constitution, is evenly split between Hutu and Tutsi, each accounting for 50% of the officer corps and troops. Left out of the accounting, however, is:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>The growing number of Hutu hard-liners in positions of authority</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The presence of parallel security organisations under tight Hutu control</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The systematic clamping down on civil society organisations, and</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The climate of pervasive fear created by the omnipresent Hutu-dominated youth militia known as <em>imbonerakure</em>.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Burundi is seen by many as alarmingly close to the edge of the abyss. Given the salience of such informal control mechanisms this is hardly surprising. Such is the consensus of most Burundi experts. Their views are corroborated by the International Federation of Human Rights Leagues <a href="https://www.fidh.org/en/region/Africa/burundi/repression-and-genocidal-dynamics-in-burundi">report</a>, the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/UNIIB/Pages/UNIIB.aspx">2016 report</a> of the UN High Commission for Human Rights, many Human Rights Watch <a href="https://www.hrw.org/africa/burundi">reports</a> and the <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/burundi-will-soon-be-one-africas-biggest-refugee-crises-says-msf-1591871">international media</a>.</p>
<h2>A bleak future</h2>
<p>But what adds to the sense of pessimism is such actions as the appointment of notorious hard-liners to key positions.</p>
<p>For example, General Evariste Ndayishimiye’s <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/burundian-opposition-concerned-by-appointment-army-general-ndayishimiye-head-cndd-fdd-1577368">appointment</a> as the secretary general of the Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie-Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie – the current ruling party in Burundi. This leaves few doubts about the intransigence of the regime. He is known to be a tough-minded general and viscerally anti-Tutsi.</p>
<p>Ethnicity is becoming more noticeable as a policy issue. A growing number of Tutsi elements have been excluded from key government positions. In February of 2016 some 700 Tutsi troops <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21697289-political-ethnic-and-economic-crises-stalk-rwandas-neighbour-sliding-towards">were forced</a> into early retirement. The police force and the ruling party’s youth wing, now <a href="http://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2016/06/07/briefing-%E2%80%93-who%E2%80%99s-who-burundi%E2%80%99s-armed-opposition">undergoing</a> regular military training, have become virtually mono-ethnic, and so too the security units operating alongside the normal channels.</p>
<p>Perhaps even more ominous is the <a href="https://africanvoicess.wordpress.com/2015/11/07/discours-du-president-du-senat-du-burundi-reverien-ndikuriyo-on-va-travailler-invitation-au-genocide/">outrageous language</a> used by the president of the Senate, Reverien Ndikuriyo. Some of his utterances have been reminiscent of the coded euphemisms employed during the Rwanda genocide as synonyms for killing Tutsi. He even made <a href="https://africanvoicess.wordpress.com/2015/11/07/discours-du-president-du-senat-du-burundi-reverien-ndikuriyo-on-va-travailler-invitation-au-genocide/">reference</a> to “going to work”, a metaphor for killing.</p>
<p>It is easy to see why the thinly veiled anti-Tutsi posturings of the Nkurunziza regime should be seen by many as payback for the <a href="http://migs.concordia.ca/documents/The-Burundi-Killings-of-1972Lemarchand.pdf">1972 tragedy</a>. Some 200,000 Hutu were killed at the hands of a predominantly Tutsi army. Hundreds if not thousands of Tutsi civilians were killed by Hutu insurgents.</p>
<p>The prospects for reconciliation are bleak. Formal gestures by the government to nudge the legitimate opposition parties to join an intra-Burundi dialogue have consistently <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Burundi-peace-talks-fail-to-take-off-in-Tanzania-/2558-3027236-fa0un7/index.html">failed</a>. As for the weak and fragmented rebel forces in exile, nothing short of a miracle would enable them to capture power in the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>There have been repeated attempts by organisations like the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/burundi/african-union-and-burundi-crisis-ambition-versus-reality">African Union</a> to impose sanctions aimed at stopping atrocities and prepare the ground for the presence of an international protection force. These efforts have not been successful. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-13/u-s-russian-tensions-threaten-to-paralyze-un-security-council">Internal rifts</a> in the UN Security Council between supporters of Nkurunziza, like China and Russia, and their opponents ensured the failure of a concerted diplomatic initiative.</p>
<p>Burundi’s <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-burundi-politics-idUSKCN12622V">planned withdrawal</a> from the international criminal court in response to pressure to investigate the country’s human rights situation stands as another ill omen for the future.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69122/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" height="1" alt="The Conversation"/></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rene-lemarchand-316549">Rene Lemarchand</a>, Emeritus professor of Political Science, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-florida-1392">University of Florida</a></em></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/burundi-edges-closer-to-the-abyss-in-2016-69122">original article</a>.</p>


Burundi edges closer to the abyss

<p>Starting now, South Africa’s pupils will be able to obtain as <a style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 400;" href="http://www.education.gov.za/Portals/0/Documents/Publications/Circular%20A3%20of%202016.pdf?ver=2016-12-07-154005-723">little as 20%</a>in mathematics in Grades 7, 8 and 9 and still progress to the next year of learning. This has been touted by many as evidence of an alleged inexorable decline in educational standards.</p>
<p>The country is already known for its <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2016/11/29/revealed-world-pupil-rankings-science-maths-timss-results/">poor performance</a> in international standardised assessments in mathematics. This latest move may be misconstrued as condoning such poor achievement.</p>
<p>But the truth is a little more complex.</p>
<p>For Grades 7 and 8 – when pupils should be between 14 and 15 years of age – this strategy of “pushing through” to avoid repeated student retention is not new. It has been part of standard policy. This means that by the time pupils reach Grade 9, there’s a bottleneck in the system. It was inevitable that this pressure would need to be relieved.</p>
<p>To understand why, one must consider the confluence of a number of factors, including: the over-inflated importance of mathematics; a curriculum packed too full to allow for any slip-ups or slower learning rates, and the country’s struggling maths teachers. <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2016-12-09-00-home-is-where-the-learning-is">Maths performance correlates directly with poverty factors</a>, meaning these challenges affect more than 75% of South Africa’s schools.</p>
<h2>Inflated value of maths</h2>
<p>In the past 20 years there’s been a major shift internationally towards thinking of education in purely economic terms (as opposed to critical citizenry, creativity or self-actualization). This reduction of education to purely economic ends, coupled with the conflation between mathematical prowess and problem-solving skills for the “knowledge economy”, has resulted in mathematics being isolated as “essential knowledge”. Its proponents insist that maths is required for an education of value.</p>
<p>To fully appreciate this shift in thinking, South Africans need to suspend their collective amnesia: passing mathematics was not a requirement to move into Grade 10 a generation ago. And yet adults from this era are often economically productive, creative and academically accomplished. Many would publicly acknowledge their own struggles with numbers.</p>
<p>The vast majority of jobs of many flavours and incomes do not require the type of maths taught even in Grade 9. This is forgotten when mathematics is positioned as supremely important for the job market, or for students’ personal development.</p>
<h2>Moving targets</h2>
<p>Against the backdrop of this increased emphasis on mathematics, it’s useful to consider key features of the <a href="http://www.education.gov.za/Portals/0/Documents/Policies/PolicyProgPromReqNCS.pdf?ver=2015-02-03-154857-397">National Policy Pertaining to the Promotion Requirements of the National Curriculum Statement</a>.</p>
<p>An excessive emphasis on mathematics permeates this policy. Passing mathematics with “moderate” performance (that is, 40% or more) is now a criterion for passing in every grade. It’s a criterion many students <a href="http://www.education.gov.za/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/REPORT%20ON%20THE%20ANA%20OF%202014.pdf?ver=2014-12-04-104938-000">do not meet</a>.</p>
<p>The second issue is the “maximum four years in phase” policy. According to this, a pupil may not repeat more than one year in each three year phase of compulsory schooling. If a pupil has already repeated a year in a phase, they are “progressed” through into the next grade – whether they meet the promotion/pass criteria or not.</p>
<p>This “maximum four years in phase” policy bites at the end of Grade 9. Pushing pupils through without passing maths was a viable option in lower grades, as there was a “next grade” to progress to. But leaving Grade 9 without passing means leaving school without the <a href="http://www.saqa.org.za/docs/pol/2003/getc.pdf">General Education and Training</a> certificate required for admission to a technical college.</p>
<p>In the past, officials and schools have often suspended the “max four years” criterion to give pupils another opportunity to try and attain a recognisable school leaving qualification, requiring a maths score of higher than 40%. For pupils who have been failing maths for years, this is almost <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/dismal-10-average-for-grade-9-maths-1791182">impossible</a>.</p>
<p>The pressure to move learners through the system is immense. Each year, principals and senior teachers suffer validation meetings, an event where schools justify their decisions to the provincial education department about whether students who failed should repeat or progress.</p>
<p>As a former mathematics Head of Department who has attended such meetings, I came to appreciate the lottery involved about who was “progressed” and who was not, as officials clandestinely tweak results until the number of students moved through was politically acceptable. Often those with 20% or more would have their marks “adjusted” to 30% for what is referred to as a “condoned pass”. As teachers, we are told to “find marks” in assessments to justify passing or condoning borderline students.</p>
<p>But sometimes there are just not enough marks to find.</p>
<h2>Huge learning backlogs</h2>
<p>The second policy that adds to the conundrum is the Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement (CAPS). This demands strict adherence to pacing and content. Mathematics in CAPS moves at breakneck speed: ten jam-packed weeks of content per term, even though there are often only eight weeks of actual lessons.</p>
<p>Curriculum advisers regularly correct teachers who deviate from the stated content and pacing of curriculum documents. That means a teacher who has the confidence and ability to address learning backlogs by professionally interpreting the curriculum to meet a pupil’s needs is often criticised for doing so. Teachers without this confidence or skill will not even attempt the task.</p>
<p>Such rigidity is in stark contradiction to the National Policy Pertaining to the Promotion Requirements, which is peppered with phrases regarding tailoring learning to address backlogs and learning barriers.</p>
<p>Primary schools pragmatically push over-age (16 years old) Grade 7 pupils through to Grade 8 in senior schools. Senior schools then receive under-prepared pupils who are too old to refer to schools of skills or special needs schools – the maximum referral age is 14. There is nothing to be done but to try and teach struggling learners, knowing they will be pushed up into Grade 9 where they will get stuck or <a href="https://africacheck.org/spot_check/south-africas-matric-pass-rate-obscures-dropout-rate/">drop out</a>. After Grade 9, the pupil enrolment dwindles rapidly as students lose the protection of being pushed through by the conveyor belt.</p>
<p>Together, these policies effectively put pupils on a one way track into Grade 9 irrespective of their performance in mathematics at lower grades. Then it has kept them in Grade 9 by insisting they meet the pass criteria… until now.</p>
<h2>Struggling mathematics teachers</h2>
<p>Two urgent issues, most concentrated in schools that serve the country’s poorest learners, further exacerbate what is already an obviously disastrous situation.</p>
<p>Firstly, the mathematics abilities of primary school teachers is a problem experienced in many countries, including the <a href="http://washingtonmonthly.com/2016/06/15/elementary-school-teachers-struggle-with-common-core-math-standards/">US</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/feb/14/primary-teachers-fail-maths-tests">UK</a>, but particularly in <a href="http://www.cde.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/MATHEMATICS%20OUTCOMES%20IN%20SOUTH%20AFRICAN%20SCHOOLS.pdf">South Africa</a>. Mathematics specialists are appointed in high schools. Primary school teachers are trained as generalists. Yet it is in primary school where the learning backlog begins.</p>
<p>Secondly, teachers’ working conditions in poorer schools are abysmal. Those teachers who can leave often do, and mathematics teachers in particular often possess transferable skills. They <a href="http://www.education.gov.za/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/Teachers%20for%20the%20future%2016%20NOV%202005.pdf?ver=2008-03-05-111025-000">relocate</a> to other schools or other industries for better working conditions.</p>
<p>Primary schools thus struggle to provide the crucial foundations for maths, and secondary schools struggle to retain the specialists who might be able to address the problem later.</p>
<h2>Relieving the self-applied pressure</h2>
<p>It’s no wonder then that <a href="http://www.education.gov.za/Portals/0/Documents/Publications/Education%20Statistic%202013.pdf?ver=2015-03-30-144732-767">Grade 9 is the largest cohort in South Africa’s senior schools</a>. Nor should it come as a surprise that large percentages of these classes are extremely weak at mathematics. Many pupils have barriers to learning that have been unaddressed for so long that there is little to be done at this late stage.</p>
<p>The Department of Basic Education has snookered itself by applying tight Grade 9 promotion criteria based on mathematics, without providing the means to meet them. This latest move is simply a welcome, realistic – and long overdue – acknowledgement that the ability to factorise quadratic functions is not a prerequisite for an educated child.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/70289/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" height="1" alt="The Conversation"/></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sara-muller-301742">Sara Muller</a>, Researcher: Teacher Development and Sociology of Education, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-cape-town-691">University of Cape Town</a></em></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pressured-south-african-schools-had-no-choice-but-to-relax-maths-pass-mark-70289">original article</a>.</p>


The truth behind S.A's decision to allow 20% as a maths pass mark

<p>Almost 40 years after its independence, land reform remains at the heart of Zimbabwe’s political and economic challenges. But perhaps more than any other issue in Zimbabwe, it has historically been met with inertia from government and the international community.</p>
<p>Governments throughout the world have found difficulty devising economically successful land tenure models that <a href="https://www.rienner.com/title/Class_Dynamics_of_Agrarian_Change">incorporate landless populations</a> meaningfully into food and cash crop production. Zimbabwe is no exception.</p>
<p>In Southern Rhodesia, the development of the settler agricultural economy was based on the widespread expropriation of land and the forced removal of native populations to reserves. Settler populations maintained access to the best land in the colony, where land holdings were based on colour and ethnicity.</p>
<p>Southern Rhodesia’s Land Apportionment <a href="http://afraf.oxfordjournals.org/content/XXXIV/CXXXVI/296.full.pdf">Act</a> of 1930 reserved 50% of the land in the country for white settlers, 30% for Africans, and 20% for commercial companies and the colonial government. This set the stage for future President Robert Mugabe’s childhood and the <a href="http://www.worldhistory.biz/sundries/39661-zimbabwe-second-chimurenga-1966-1979.html">second Chimurenga</a>.</p>
<p>The end of settler colonialism and the coming of majority rule in Zimbabwe did not change skewed land ownership patterns. This was despite the fact that Mugabe came to power largely on the promise of <a href="https://penguin.com.au/books/dinner-with-mugabe-9781742286235">redistributing land to the rural poor</a></p>
<h2>Independence and commercial agriculture</h2>
<p>Under the <a href="http://sas-space.sas.ac.uk/5847/5/1979_Lancaster_House_Agreement.pdf">Lancaster House Agreement</a>, Mugabe’s government could only acquire land on a “willing seller, willing buyer, fair market” basis for the first ten years of independence. This undoubtedly stalled land reform. Only about 50,000 households were settled in the first decade of independence.</p>
<p>Mugabe blamed the slow pace of reform on Britain, which cancelled its promised funding of the program in the face of corruption allegations. Critics accused Mugabe of awarding tracts of land to government ministers and party loyalists.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Land-Reform-Zimbabwe-Thomson-ebook/dp/B004MPRV56/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1481121113&amp;sr=8-5&amp;keywords=land+reform+zimbabwe">slow pace of land reform</a> continued after the end of the Lancaster House Agreement. This was in part due to subsequent land acts that protected commercial agricultural production. These continued Lancaster House’s willing seller, willing buyer, and fair market compensation principles, thereby protecting settler commercial agricultural production.</p>
<p>But the government was also constrained by the need to maintain the commercial agricultural sector, its ties to the local economy, and its important export earnings. To a government consolidating power in the country, it became more important to maintain the status quo and keep export earnings rather than to challenge largely white commercial farming interests. In the first decade after independence, <a href="http://www.academicjournals.org/article/article1380553915_Maiyaki.pdf">agriculture provided 45% of the country’s exports, 60% of the raw materials used by Zimbabwean industry, and 70% of employment for the population</a>.</p>
<p>It was also important to maintain good relations and attract foreign investment, notably from the UK, which maintained strong ties with the settler agricultural sector.</p>
<h2>The difficulty of reforming the commercial sector</h2>
<p>When Mugabe came to power in 1980, his government inherited an agricultural sector that was dependent on subsidies and government support. Through continued government intervention from 1980-1985, <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4632e/y4632e0y.htm#TopOfPage">the smallholder sector developed rapidly</a>, providing maize and cotton largely for local use.</p>
<p>In 1986, the government decided to create incentives for export production, including foreign exchange and marketing subsidies, making commercial production more profitable. As a result, many large-scale and smallholder farmers moved to the commercial production of cash crops such as tobacco and maize for export. But by 1990, the government could no longer sustain subsidies. Instead it embarked on a <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4632e/y4632e0y.htm#TopOfPage">program of deregulation</a>.</p>
<p>Declines in the value of the Zimbabwe dollar, coupled with increases in the prices of fertilizer, feed, and transport, rendered commercial farming an expensive endeavor. As a consequence, large-scale commercial farming of more profitable crops such as tobacco increased. <a href="http://www.fctobacco.com/index.php/about/history-of-tobacco">Tobacco became the country’s single largest foreign exchange earner</a>.</p>
<p>But small-scale farmers generally did not benefit from increases in tobacco production. They did not enjoy economies of scale. They also lacked access to capital, markets, technology, and extension services. Small-scale farmers therefore focused on other less profitable crops including maize, cotton, and groundnuts. Still, in the first two decades after independence, small-scale and resettlement farmers were <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/y4997e/y4997e0k.htm">not able to compete</a> with large-scale farmers without continued subsidies and increased market access.</p>
<p>There were other constraints. Investor confidence is largely based on the maintenance of the status quo of the agricultural sector in countries such as Zimbabwe. Prior to the end of the 1990s the Zimbabwe government did not want to send mixed signals to the investment community and jeopardise its investment profile or potential. As such tthe government was loath on embarking on large-scale subsidy and asset nationalisation schemes to develop small-scale commercial agriculture.</p>
<p>In the absence of donor funding to develop training, extension services, credit facilities, and market access, the Zimbabwe government had few economic options available to incorporate smallholders into the agricultural sector without scaring away much needed capital.</p>
<h2>Fast track to land reform</h2>
<p>As internal discontent increased, and external funding for land reform dried up, Mugabe threatened to expropriate white-owned farmland without compensation. In 1997 the government published a list of <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/030570700108351">1,471 farms that were to be expropriated and resettled</a>. It demanded that the UK provide funding for the endeavour. The UK did not heed the call. Corruption, coupled with the gazetting of white-owned farms, threatened remaining donor funding. In 1999 the International Monetary Fund <a href="http://news.trust.org//item/20130607220313-9eqtm/">suspended its funding</a> to Zimbabwe.</p>
<p>As the 1990s drew to a close, persistent drought, a failed structural adjustment program, rampant inflation, and lack of foreign exchange created a challenging environment for the Zimbabwean government and population. Hungry for land, Zimbabwe African National Union-People’s Front (ZANU-PF) supporters, some of whom were war veterans, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/667621.stm">invaded white-owned farms</a> with the government’s approval in early 2000. This took place before parliament passed a bill that changed the constitution to legalise the expropriation of white-owned farms without compensation. Once the change was voted in, “fast tracking” land reform for resettlement became policy.</p>
<p>As opposition movements grew, ZANU-PF became increasingly willing to adopt programs aimed at fast tracking land reform to landless, discontented, yet voting, populations.</p>
<p>Violence and continued government threats left the majority of white farmers with little choice but to abandon their land or discontinue cultivation. By 2004 the government-controlled newspaper indicated that farmers only used <a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200412230052.html">a quarter of the arable land</a> in the country that season. Agricultural production plummeted and the country went from a net food exporter to a net importer.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe continues to face extreme food shortages which have only been exacerbated by drought. Today, about 5 million of the country’s population of 14 million are estimated to be in need of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/zimbabwe-drought-million-face-food-shortage-160516142445157.html">food assistance</a>.</p>
<h2>Four decades later it’s still about land</h2>
<p>It undoubtedly remains challenging to integrate local populations meaningfully into the agricultural sector as producers of food and cash crops. This is partly a result of harsh economic realities, including economies of scale and market access. But, as can be seen throughout Zimbabwe, <a href="https://boydellandbrewer.com/zimbabwe-s-land-reform-pb.html">newly settled populations thrive</a> when they are given training and investment that supports the production of food and cash crops.</p>
<p>This is the policy that needs Zimbabwean and international support post-Mugabe to address the country’s rural hunger, and perhaps employment, challenges. This is at the heart of the second Chimurenga, and Mugabe’s almost 40 year old promise to the population of Zimbabwe.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69524/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" height="1" alt="The Conversation"/></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/beverly-l-peters-313972">Beverly L. Peters</a>, Director and Assistant Professor Measurement &amp; Evaluation School of Professional and Extended Studies, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/american-university-1187">American University</a></em></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-zimbabwe-has-failed-to-sate-the-yearning-for-land-and-to-fix-rural-hunger-69524">original article</a>.</p>


Zimbabwe has failed to sate the yearning for land and to fix rural hunger, this is why

<div class="group-container ">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p><a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NOKIA-FI" target="_blank" class="inline_quotes" data-gdsid="26737" data-inline-quote-symbol="NOKIA-FI">Nokia</a>-branded handsets are returning to the market with the first announced device being a $26 dumb phone complete with the classic &#8220;Snake&#8221; mobile game.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, a company called HMD Global , which is formed of ex-Nokia executives, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/18/nokia-phones-are-back-after-microsoft-sells-mobile-assets-for-350-million-to-foxconn-hmd.html" target="_blank">acquired the rights</a> and intellectual property licenses from the Finnish firm. This gives HMD exclusive global brand licensing rights for the next 10 years.</p>
<p>Under the agreement, Nokia will receive royalty payments from HMD for sales of every Nokia branded mobile phone or tablet.</p>
<div></div>
<p>The first result of this deal is the Nokia 150 and Nokia 150 Dual SIM – two feature phones announced by HMD on Tuesday which will cost $26. They are so-called &#8220;dumb phones&#8221; – without internet connectivity.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container last">
<div class="embed-container image" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="attribution">HMD Global&#8217;s Nokia-branded device is expected to go on sale in the first quarter of 2017.</div>
</div>
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Here are some of the features of the devices:</p>
<ul>
<li>FM radio and MP3 player</li>
<li>2.4 inch screen</li>
<li>Physical keypad</li>
<li>Battery life – 22 hours of talk time and 31 days on standby</li>
</ul>
<p>In a nod back to the classic durability of Nokia phones, HMD said the devices are &#8220;built to last&#8221;. The company has also pre-loaded &#8220;Snake Xenzia&#8221; onto the phones, which should excite Nokia fans.</p>
<p>Both handsets will come in black or white, cost $26, and will be rolling out in Asia-Pacific, India, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe in the first quarter of 2017.</p>
<p>HMD recently announced that it would be releasing two Android phones early next year.</p>
<p>There are still many emerging markets where the Nokia 150 might find appeal, helped by the $26 price tag as well as the strong Nokia brand.</p>
<p>Nokia exited the phone business when it completed the sale of the division to <a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MSFT" target="_blank" class="inline_quotes" data-gdsid="25619" data-inline-quote-symbol="MSFT">Microsoft</a> in 2014. The U.S. technology giant failed to make the acquisition work and has since wrote off its entire purchase of Nokia and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/08/microsoft-to-restructure-phone-hardware-business-cut-up-to-7800-jobs.html" target="_blank">announced 7,800 layoffs</a>, mostly in the phone division.</p>
<p>Since that sale, Nokia has been focusing on its crucial Networks division and new areas of technology such as 5G internet, virtual reality and health care. For Nokia, this will help them earn revenue without having to manufacture phones.﻿</p>
</div>
</div>
<p> </p>


Nokia phones are back

<div class="group-container ">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>After 35 years working for the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission, 58-year-old Michael Stuban <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2016/12/12/he-was-minutes-from-retirement-but-first-he-blasted-his-bosses-in-a-company-wide-email/?utm_term=.71e176f3b4e0&amp;wpisrc=nl_most&amp;wpmm=1" target="_blank" title="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2016/12/12/he-was-minutes-from-retirement-but-first-he-blasted-his-bosses-in-a-company-wide-email/?utm_term=.71e176f3b4e0&amp;wpisrc=nl_most&amp;wpmm=1" class="inline_asset">ended his career with a bang</a>.</p>
<p>He emailed a &#8220;brutally honest&#8221; <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/333325257/Michael-Stuban-s-exit-questionnaire#from_embed" target="_blank" title="https://www.scribd.com/document/333325257/Michael-Stuban-s-exit-questionnaire#from_embed" class="inline_asset">exit questionnaire</a>, in which he rips on his colleagues and bosses, to not only the HR department but also to the 2,000-plus other employees at the Turnpike Commission.</p>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-ui-components-label">&#8220;When they asked for an honest exit interview, I gave them one,&#8221; <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20161202_Philly_Clout__Turnpike_manager_s_email_rips_his_bosses_minutes_before_retirement.html" target="_blank" title="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20161202_Philly_Clout__Turnpike_manager_s_email_rips_his_bosses_minutes_before_retirement.html" class="inline_asset">says Stuban</a>, who retired on Thanksgiving Day and now plans to travel and volunteer at his church.</div>
</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<p>While it might be tempting, and seemingly hilarious, to go out in a blaze of glory like Stuban or Joanna in &#8220;Office Space,&#8221; you&#8217;re better off holding your tongue.</p>
<p>Here are a few tips to help you master the art of quitting.</p>
<div class="dart_wrapper dart_ads_noniframe_responsiverectangle  badge-ad">
<div class="mps-slot" data-mps-slot="responsiverectangle" data-mps-loadset="0" data-google-query-id="CP7k-pml89ACFUyPGwodA5QHRA">
<div><iframe title="3rd party ad content" width="700" height="1" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" frameborder="0"></iframe></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container ">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Zip it.</p>
<p>As much as you may want to tell co-workers that you&#8217;re looking for another job, don&#8217;t do it.</p>
<p>&#8220;Your manager may view your desire to depart as a betrayal, so it&#8217;s best to keep quiet,&#8221; says Marie McIntyre, a career coach and author of <a href="http://www.yourofficecoach.com/" target="_blank" class="inline_asset">&#8220;Secrets to Winning at Office Politics.&#8221;</a></p>
<p>&#8220;As soon as your boss knows you&#8217;re looking, you will be viewed as a short-timer and may lose out on valuable opportunities, like promotions, raises, assignments, or training.&#8221;</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container ">
<div class="inline-player">
<div class="pro-video-chapters fall dyperf dyMonitor" trkid="3000574639" data-adid="535383||1959|||"></div>
<div class="asset  cnbcvideo imgasset desc_size600_400 featuredPromo" playertype="makeit" data-brand="1" data-dockable="1">
<div class="headline">How to deal with difficult coworkers without losing your mind  </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Do your homework.</p>
<p>Before you start preparing your &#8220;Take this job and shove it&#8221; speech, or you even breathe a word of your resignation to a co-worker, do your homework on potential next jobs.</p>
<p>You might find out that to go to a competitor, you have to take a pay cut. You might want to figure out a way to stay or consider a career change to maintain your current pay — and lifestyle.</p>
<p>Check sites like <a href="http://www.getraised.com/" target="_blank" class="inline_asset">GetRaised.com</a> or <a href="http://www.salary.com/" target="_blank" class="inline_asset">Salary.com</a> so you won&#8217;t end up a victim of fuzzy math.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container ">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Interview on your own time.</p>
<p>Schedule interviews before or after work, or during lunch. If that&#8217;s not possible, use vacation time, McIntyre suggests. You wouldn&#8217;t want the reference from your old employer to say, &#8220;Well, he kind of lost interest there at the end ….&#8221;</p>
<p>Plus, McIntyre points out, the interviewer will likely appreciate the respect you&#8217;re showing to your current employer. </p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container ">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Finish strong.</p>
<p>In fact, the best way to quit is to rally at the end. Do even more at your current job and do it better. That will impress the interviewer and make for a solid reference from your current employer for years to come.</p>
<p>Imagine your old bosses saying, &#8220;Yeah, we really took a hit when that guy left …,&#8221; instead of, &#8220;Good riddance. He didn&#8217;t do much here anyway!&#8221;</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container ">
<div class="inline-player">
<div class="pro-video-chapters fall dyperf dyMonitor" trkid="3000565973" data-adid="535383||3192|||"></div>
<div class="asset  cnbcvideo imgasset desc_size600_400 featuredPromo" playertype="makeit" data-brand="1">
<div class="headline">Former Google career coach shares tips on what to do if you hate your job  </div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Don&#8217;t aim to go out in a blaze of glory.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/career-mistakes-rory-makes-in-the-gilmore-girls-reboot.html" target="_blank">If you burn a bridge these days</a>, you will very often regret it.</p>
<p>Consider this: You land a job at a competitor and tell your bosses exactly what you think of them. Next thing you know, the two companies merge and you&#8217;re now eye to eye with the guy you just insulted. Whose name do you think will be at the top of the list for the next round of layoffs?</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="group-container last">
<div class="group" itemprop="articleBody">
<p>Don&#8217;t talk trash on an interview or at your new job.</p>
<p>As with dating, it&#8217;s tempting to be dismissive of the person you just left. Bite your tongue. You don&#8217;t know these people yet and you never know when someone knows or is married to someone at your old company. Plus, you don&#8217;t want your new coworkers to think you&#8217;re indiscreet or a generally negative type.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s been said that you can judge the true character of a person by the way they leave a job. Even if you are deliriously happy to get out of there, leave your work in good shape for the next person and bid everyone farewell in a pleasant, friendly manner,&#8221; McIntyre says.</p>
<p>Quick recap: Zip it. Do your homework. And as much fun as it is to rant, keep any stories you tell about your old office positive.﻿</p>
</div>
</div>
<p> </p>


Looking for new opportunities? How not to quit a job

<p>Gambian President Yahya Jammeh&#8217;s ruling party challenged his defeat in a Dec. 1 election at the Supreme Court on Tuesday as West African leaders failed to reach a deal that would see him accept the result and end a deepening political crisis.</p>
<p>Soldiers also seized the headquarters of the national elections commission and sealed it off just hours before the mediation delegation representing regional bloc ECOWAS touched down in the tiny riverside nation.</p>
<p>Jammeh, who has ruled Gambia since taking power in a 1994 coup and is accused of widespread rights abuses, initially conceded defeat to his main challenger, Adama Barrow. But in a dramatic about-face that drew international condemnation he then rejected the poll results last Friday.</p>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads1"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads0"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The legal petition filed by the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction now raises the prospect that Barrow&#8217;s narrow victory, which was poised to end years of Jammeh&#8217;s autocratic rule, may be overturned.</p>
<p>&#8220;The petition prays that it be determined that the said Adama Barrow was not duly elected or returned as president and that the said election was void,&#8221; read the text of the document submitted to the court and seen by Reuters.</p>
<p>Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a Nobel peace laureate, led the ECOWAS delegation that also included Nigeria&#8217;s Muhammadu Buhari, Sierra Leone&#8217;s Ernest Bai Koroma and Ghana&#8217;s John Mahama, who lost an election last week and conceded defeat.</p>
<p>&#8220;It is not time for a deal. It is not something that can happen in one day. It is something that we have to work on,&#8221; Johnson Sirleaf said as the presidents prepared to leave Gambia.</p>
<p>Regional leaders will discuss the crisis at an ECOWAS summit in Nigeria on Saturday, she said, adding Jammeh had given her assurances that peace and stability would be preserved.</p>
<p>But in an apparent sign that Jammeh was further entrenching his position, security forces seized control of the Independent Electoral Commission headquarters, which holds the original poll records.</p>
<p>&#8220;The military came to my office and said I am not to touch anything and told me to leave,&#8221; said commission chairman Alieu Momarr Njai. &#8220;I am worried for my safety.&#8221;</p>
<p> </p>
<p>&#8220;STANDOFF&#8221;</p>
<p>Barrow, who received the unified backing of Gambia&#8217;s opposition in the election, has vowed to reverse Jammeh&#8217;s most capricious decisions, including a recently announced withdrawal from the International Criminal Court.</p>
<p>&#8220;I think everyone knows the issue here. There is a standoff between the government and our side,&#8221; Barrow said after meeting the regional heads of state.</p>
<p>If negotiations fail, diplomats say, Gambia&#8217;s neighbours might consider removing him by force. Marcel de Souza, head of the ECOWAS commission, told Radio France International on Monday that sending troops was &#8220;a conceivable solution&#8221;.</p>
<p>Gambia&#8217;s president officially has 60 days to hand over power, but his move to challenge the result at the Supreme Court &#8211; the legal channel for resolving poll disputes &#8211; could put the international community in a difficult position.</p>
<p>Rights groups say Jammeh exerts strong influence over the court, which has not held a session for a year and a half. Legal experts believe that at least four new judges would need to be hired to hear his petition.</p>
<p>With Gambian judges no longer willing to serve on the Supreme Court, foreign judges have increasingly been brought in to hear cases. The current chief justice is from Nigeria.</p>
<p>The role of Gambia&#8217;s army will now be critical and the United States said on Monday some military officers had sided with Jammeh.</p>
<p>Army chief General Ousman Badjie had previously called Barrow to pledge his allegiance, the latter&#8217;s spokeswoman said. But Badjie&#8217;s support for the president-elect appeared far less certain on Tuesday.</p>
<p>&#8220;I support the commander in chief, whoever it may be. I support the commander in chief Jammeh,&#8221; Badjie told Reuters.</p>
<p>Barrow, who has no official state security detail, said in an interview on Monday he was concerned for his own safety.﻿</p>


Regional leaders fail to reach deal with Gambia's Jammeh

<p>LAGOS, Dec 13 (Reuters) &#8211; With Christmas just weeks away, Dolapo Beckley was among a throng of shoppers haggling at a market in Nigeria&#8217;s commercial capital Lagos, where the prices of some goods have doubled in the last year.</p>
<p>Beckley voted for President Muhammadu Buhari in the election that swept him to power last year on promises to fix endemic mismanagement and corruption.</p>
<p>But 19 months into his term, public support is crumbling as people like the 34-year-old baker blame Buhari for Nigeria&#8217;s first recession in 25 years and a rise in inflation to an 11-year high of 18.3 percent.</p>
<p>&#8220;I do regret voting for Buhari. We wanted a better economy and things are turning upside down, even worse than the way it was before,&#8221; said Beckley, who was at the Lagos Island market to buy gifts for her children.</p>
<p>Buhari&#8217;s aides say the woes of Africa&#8217;s biggest economy stem from the previous government&#8217;s failure to set money aside in the years when Nigeria&#8217;s crude oil fetched over $100 a barrel, before the price plunged in late 2014. It now stands around $56.</p>
<p>The OPEC member relies on oil sales for two-thirds of state revenue, and Buhari has said his government is working to diversify the economy by boosting manufacturing and farming. On Wednesday he will submit a record budget worth 7.2 trillion naira ($23.6 billion) to lawmakers, drawing partly on foreign borrowing to pay for a boost in capital spending.</p>
<p>But in a country where the U.N. estimates that 70 percent of the 180 million inhabitants live on a dollar a day, anger at the state of the economy is tangible.</p>
<p>&#8220;We are no longer asking President Buhari to develop Nigeria,&#8221; states a message shared widely on social media. &#8220;At this point, we are only asking him to return Nigeria to the state it was before he became president.&#8221;</p>
<p>Despite a 40 percent devaluation of the naira currency in June, a shortage of dollars persists, and they fetch a premium of up to 40 percent on the black market. In Nigeria&#8217;s import-driven economy, this has pushed up the cost of everything from rice to spare machine parts.</p>
<p>&#8220;Everything has skyrocketed. It&#8217;s just too expensive for the masses,&#8221; said Victor Adinye, a civil servant at the Lagos market.</p>
<p>Surrounded by makeshift stalls, some adorned with tinsel, Beckley said she could only afford one piece of clothing to give each of her two children for Christmas. Last year they got four items each.</p>
<p>Even the Buhari government&#8217;s successes against the Islamist militants of Boko Haram have come at a cost. Its advances have revealed mass hunger in liberated areas, which the U.N. said could see 75,000 children starve to death in the coming months.</p>
<p>And a wave of arrests of former officials, part of a promised anti-corruption drive, has yet to yield any convictions.</p>
<p>&#8220;This is not the change we bargained for,&#8221; said Beckley.</p>
<p>Fellow shopper Ayo Omope, a 27-year-old make-up artist, said she was contemplating joining the thousands of Africans who leave each year to seek a better life in the United States or Europe because &#8220;there is no hope any more&#8221; in Nigeria.</p>
<p>(Editing by Ulf Laessing and Mark Trevelyan)﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Nigerians vent frustration as President Buhari prepares to submit record budget

Could this be the African Union's next Chairperson?

<p>It is almost time to say goodbye and perhaps even good riddance to 2016. Aside from the political drama here and abroad (including Brexit, Trump, State capture and SARS wars), investment returns have been disappointing. The JSE All Share Index had a positive week, but the year-to-date return for local equities is only 3%, including dividends. (This number hides a wide divergence, with resources up 33%, industrials down 7% and financials struggling with a 4.7% return.) Listed property returned 6% over this period, while cash achieved around 7%. Bonds have been the best performing local asset class with a 15% year-to-date return. The looming threat of downgrades – thankfully postponed for now – probably dissuaded a lot of managers from investing in bonds.</p>
<p>Some global markets have performed better this year, with the S&amp;P 500 at record levels and a 12% year-to-date return. The FTSE 100 benefited from a weak pound and returned 15% in 2016, but Eurozone markets are flat in euros. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 13% in US dollars. The problem for South African investors, though, is that the rand has gained 11% against the greenback, 13% against the euro and 24% against sterling. Therefore, translating global returns into rands results in negative returns. The stronger rand this year is also a factor behind the disappointing returns of local equities, given that the majority of earnings of JSE-listed companies are earned abroad.</p>
<p><strong>Disappointing returns</strong></p>
<p>According to Morningstar, the average retail balanced fund returned only 0.7% year-to-date to end November. The range of returns over this period is very wide, with the top fund returning 20% and the worst fund -8%. This is a fitting testament to the difficult environment, particularly the sharp reversal in January of the trends that persisted in the previous three years (a weakening rand, falling commodity prices, negative emerging market sentiment). However, the longer-term picture looks better, with the average balanced fund achieving an annualised 6.6% return over three years and 10.5% per annum over five years.</p>
<p><strong>Third quarter growth disappoints</strong></p>
<p>South Africa’s economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the third quarter &#8211; by a seasonally-adjusted and annualised 0.2% &#8211; after 3.5% growth in the second quarter. The economy contracted in the first quarter, leading to real growth of only 0.4% for the first nine months of 2016. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2015.</p>
<p>Clearly this snails-pace rate of growth means the country is getting poorer in real per capita terms, but what matters now is to watch out for signs of improvement. Turning points are, however, difficult to spot as data is usually mixed while sentiment remains negative.</p>
<p>The biggest contributor to the disappointing quarterly growth rate was a 26% quarter-on-quarter drop in exports, followed by a 1% decline in real fixed investment spending (gross fixed capital formation).</p>
<p>The sharp decline in exports was due to a drop in both volume and export prices during the quarter. However, Transnet reported strong growth in export cargo volumes at its ports in November. Meanwhile, global trade conditions appear to be improving. The composite Global Purchasing Managers’ Index hit an 11-month high in November, pointing to the strongest global growth in a year. China’s latest import numbers surprised to the upside, showing positive growth after two years of declines.</p>
<p><strong>Higher inflation</strong></p>
<p>A big part of depressed real growth locally is higher inflation. The GDP deflator, a broad measure of inflation at all levels of the economy, increased 6.6% year-on-year in the third quarter. To gauge the earnings ability of companies operating in the local economy, one needs to look at nominal growth. The economy grew by 7.5% in the year to the end of the third quarter, a rebound from nominal growth of only 4 &#8211; 5% at the end of last year. Private sector gross operating surplus, a rough proxy for the profits of listed and unlisted companies, grew by 6.6% year-on-year in the third quarter while there was virtually no growth at the end of 2015.</p>
<p><strong>Real income growth still positive</strong></p>
<p>Employee compensation (the wage bill) is still growing at 8% per year, despite high unemployment. With inflation expected to decline next year, helped along by a firmer rand, it implies positive overall real income growth for households in total, supporting their spending ability. While debt constrains this ability, it has been easing. The cost of servicing debt fell slightly to 9.6% of disposable income in the third quarter. Consumer confidence has already improved. The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index has rebounded from a recession-like 11 index points to -3 index points in the third quarter. On balance, consumers are still pessimistic, but much less so than during the low levels earlier in the year. Household debt levels remain high, but have steadily declined over the past seven years, standing at 74% of disposable income in the third quarter.</p>
<p>Household consumption spending grew by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, but would have been 3.2% if the decline in transport spending (mainly vehicle purchases) hadn’t happened. However, new car sales have already increased by 6% compared to the third quarter.</p>
<p>Although fixed investment spending contracted in the third quarter (for the fourth consecutive quarter), the pace of contraction slowed to only 1%, compared to -10% in the second quarter. The investment recession might be close to an end.</p>
<p><strong>Is there light at the end of the tunnel?</strong></p>
<p>Economic conditions on the ground appear to be improving globally and locally (at the very least they are not deteriorating). Market valuations are generally good signs of the prospects of future investment returns. The valuation signals on local equities are mixed: forward price to earnings ratio on the local market of 14 is above the long-term average, but the dividend yield and price-to-book ratios are in line. There is also a large divergence on a sector level, creating opportunities for active management to outperform. Local property fundamentals remain challenging, but the sector is offering more value after its 10% decline. Assuming distribution grows in line with inflation and a starting yield of 6%, listed property can deliver low single-digit returns. An improved domestic interest rate outlook should benefit property too, but also shows that there is little upside to money market investments. Moving up the yield curve improves the attractiveness of fixed income assets, with the 10-year bond still yielding 8.8% despite the good run this year.</p>
<p>Despite the rout on global bond markets in November, developed market bond yields are not attractive. Global equity valuations are slightly above long-term averages, with US equities more expensive than European equities. These valuations suggest global equity returns could be broadly in line with long-term averages. Emerging markets are cheap compared to developed markets and offer attractive long-term returns. Returns from global assets will clearly depend on where the rand goes. With our large current account deficit (4.1% of GDP in the third quarter), the rand is vulnerable to shifts in global risk appetite and capital outflows, which in turn are likely to be influenced by the expected path of US interest rates. Nonetheless, the big drivers of the rand – the US dollar, commodity prices and sentiment towards emerging markets – are already close to historically extreme levels. From this angle, substantial declines in the rand are unlikely. However, global diversification is prudent, irrespective of what the short-term outlook for the exchange rate is.</p>
<p><strong>Return prospects muted but not dismal</strong></p>
<p>Investors have become accustomed to excellent returns over the past decade. For instance, domestic equity returns averaged 10% per year in real terms between 2000 and 2015. Compared to this, current return expectations are therefore muted. But they are not dismal and an appropriately diversified portfolio should still be able to beat inflation over the longer term. The key for investors is to remain focused on their long-term financial plans. 2016 was full of surprises and 2017 will probably also be. Don’t get side-tracked by the headlines, surprises and unexpected developments that are bound to happen. You will experience potholes, speed-bumps and delays on any long journey. The key is to stick to your goals and focus on your long-term plan.  ﻿</p>
<p>Chart 1: Rolling real ten-year local equity returns. 2000 to 2015﻿</p>
<p> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="/media/19280489/old_mutual_chart_1_13_dec.gif" width="571" height="317" alt="Old Mutual Chart 1 13 Dec"/>﻿</p>
<p>Source: Datastream</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Chart 2: South African gross domestic product growth﻿</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="/media/19280496/old_mutual_chart_2_13_dec.gif.png" width="569" height="376" alt="Old Mutual Chart 2 13 Dec .gif"/>﻿</p>
<p>Source: Datastream</p>
<p> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><em>Authors: Dave Mohr (Chief Investment Strategist) &amp; Izak Odendaal (Investment Strategist), Old Mutual Multi-Managers﻿</em></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>


Op-Ed: Difficult year almost over

<p>South African power utility Eskom will this week issue a request for proposals to add 9,600 megawatts of nuclear power to the national grid, acting chief executive Matshela Koko said on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Koko was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a court case in Cape Town where environmentalists and clean energy activists are challenging government&#8217;s decision to add nuclear to its energy mix.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


S.Africa's Eskom to invite bidders for nuclear power fleet this week

<p>As 2016 nears an end many begin to re-evaluate the year that was, both personally and professionally. As a result this is typically the time of the year new life and professional goals are developed. This is also characteristically a time when hopeful entrepreneurs consider whether the approaching year is the correct time to pursue their business idea.</p>
<p>This is according to Gugu Mjadu, spokesperson for the 2016 Entrepreneur of the Year® competition sponsored by Sanlam and BUSINESS/PARTNERS, who says that many aspiring entrepreneurs spend the festive season break considering possible business ventures, and questioning whether the risk of leaving their steady nine-to-five job to start an entrepreneurial business will be worth it.</p>
<p>Mjadu says that this is a valid contemplation given the current economic and market landscape, which may create more hesitation than inspiration where entrepreneurship is concerned. “In an economy awash with threats of investment ratings downgrades and political instability, small businesses have struggled this year.”</p>
<p>She also points to the recently released Statistics SA unemployment rate for South Africa, which has now risen to 27.1% of the labour force – the highest rate in 13 years. She says that this sharp decline is a clear indication that big businesses are struggling to survive, and are therefore shedding jobs to stay afloat in a tough market. “If big businesses are struggling to expand and create jobs, the conditions are that much more strenuous for smaller businesses,” says Mjadu.</p>
<p>In addition, various local business confidence surveys highlight that business owners are influenced by economic conditions. Mjadu points to the results of the third quarter 2016 Business Partners SME Index, which revealed that 75% of respondents believe that the current landscape is impacting their business’ profit margins. “The reality is that entrepreneurship is no easy ride, and the economic environment in which a business has to operate directly impacts the success of a business,” says Mjadu.</p>
<p>She adds however that a bumpy economic setting isn’t reason to put off a business venture, as these challenging conditions may actually bring about business opportunities. However, Mjadu stresses that there should always be a balance between risk evaluation and opportunities when making the decision to start a business. “While starting a business might always be considered a leap of faith in your own ability, most times the difference between a successful venture and a failed one is having a thorough knowledge of the industry in which you want to operate and being passionate about the business opportunity you have identified.</p>
<p>Mjadu adds: “Also important is for entrepreneurs to be extra vigilant in their due diligence processes, seek the guidance of a business expert to assist with the process as this will inform their decision on the level of risk that can safely be taken for their business.”</p>
<p>While there will never be a ‘perfect time’ to start a business, Mjadu says that 2017 is likely to paint a slightly better economic picture. “The recent decision by Standard &amp; Poor’s to not drop South Africa’s investment rating to junk status is a positive indication of imminent change. The country is working hard to put measures in place to recover economic growth and meet growth objectives in the New Year, and these are positive signs for aspirant entrepreneurs.”</p>
<p>Regardless of macro-conditions, Mjadu reiterates that risk will always be involved when making the decision to start a business, and should remain top of mind. “Entrepreneurs should expect the business environment to constantly fluctuate in terms of the risk it presents to small businesses. However, if entrepreneurs focus on strategically analysing this risk and ideas to mitigate the risk involved, paying extra attention to their business plan and cash flow forecast, there is no better time than the present to take the leap into entrepreneurship,” concludes Mjadu.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Is it riskier than ever to start a business in S.A?

<p><strong><em>Content presented by <a href="http://www.ggda.co.za/">Gauteng Growth and Development Agency﻿</a></em></strong></p>
<p>Gauteng is the economic and industrial hub of South Africa and the African continent. As in most places in the world, the province is not invulnerable to the opposing effects of the slowing global economy. It is however, counteracting this by making clear to investors it is open for business with initiatives such as the Gauteng Investment Centre (GIC), which brings key services to those wanting to start businesses in Africa’s richest province.</p>
<p>CNBC Africa&#8217;s Nozipho Mbanjwa recently sat down with a panel comprised of government and business to examine cost of doing business, incentives for doing business and the province&#8217;s commitment to cut red tape with different role players, who gave insight into what can be done to encourage business growth in Gauteng, and overall the country.</p>
<p>“South Africa’s geographic location and the billion potential customers that are in the continent are a great opportunity. The infrastructure that South Africa has gives it an advantage over some of the other countries even within the continent.</p>
<p>“I also see a vibrant economy, our workers [at Ford] are highly productive, we can meet the market better from here with our South African staff then in any other area,” says Jeff Nemeth, President and CEO of Ford Motor Company South Africa in response to what opportunities are currently available in the province today.</p>
<p>Nemeth adds that globally, there is still a lot of white water, giving examples of Brexit, The Referendum in Italy and the future of the United States following the recent election.</p>
<p>“There is a lot in the horizon that is unknown. What we do see in South Africa is a very stable economy, the growth isn’t spectacular but it is stable and the rand is stabilised,” he says.</p>
<p>The Executive Director for the South African Portugal Chamber of Commerce, Rui Marto added that legislation and policies, crime and corruption remain a big challenge in doing business.</p>
<p>However globally, there is a huge interest from Europeans wanting to do business in South Africa.</p>
<p>“For this to happen effectively, is a question of trying to work out a better climate. Business globally is about cutting the red tape and facilitating business as much as possible,” he says.</p>
<p>The government also plays a significant role in the growth of the economy. Spokesperson for the Gauteng Office of the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA) and Human Settlements, Keith Khoza affirms that government is a big economic player, which spends R1 trillion ($73.6 billion) in excess every year in the economy.</p>
<p>“However what concerns us [government] the most is the cost of doing business and the time it takes to facilitate business. That is why in Gauteng, the issue of cutting red tape is so important. To facilitate quick turn-around… we attach value to time and the more we can reduce the cost of waiting, it [will] all work well for the economy,” explains Khoza.</p>
<p>The CEO of the Gauteng Growth and Development Agency Saki Zamxaka was also part of the panel and said that the agency has set up the Gauteng Investment Centre (GIC), which is meant to bring in key services to those wanting to start a business.</p>
<p>“The motor industry is one of the best examples of what South Africa &#8211; not just in Gauteng &#8211; has done. In supporting the motor industry, we have Ford doing the Ranger in South Africa and part of it was doing the collaboration with government and it now runs into billions of rands.</p>
<p>“We’ve done outside missions to the rest of the continent and the rest of the world where we took businesses that want to export certain commodities from South Africa. Financial services” are interested in investing in infrastructure on the continent, Zamxaka says.</p>
<p>Marto adds the work done by the GIC is fantastic, but unfortunately not enough is done outside the centre.</p>
<p>“I think the biggest issue is implementation. I think the person that sits on the other side of the counter, assisting the business, the message does not get to them.</p>
<p>“There is an indifference regarding investors coming in. There seems to be more focus on South Africa, and not enough importance given to their [investors] task and how it fits into the bigger picture, business stops coming in because of a permit,” he says.</p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WZdHJlKLWPU" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></p>
<p>The panel also discussed public–private partnerships as a way of doing business in Gauteng, with reluctance coming from private sector and the main issue being the bottom-line</p>
<p>“One of the biggest wins in the province is labour. One of the things South Africa can still tap into, given its location is logistics. We export 60-65% of what we make mostly to Europe and about 30% of raw material and parts come from countries that are far away. Government needs to help find a space between state-owned enterprises and private business, that recognize the needs of both,” explains Nemeth.</p>
<p>The hour long discussion also spanned over topics around basic business needs, how to unlock risk capital and the growing conversation around township economies.</p>
<p>Marto says township economies have their strengths. “We need to show investors where there is a market within the townships and beyond,” he says.﻿</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>


Africa’s richest province Gauteng is working hard to attract businesses

<p>Consumers want faster data at lower prices, yesterday. This is the sentiment behind the #DataMustFall movement, which is agitating for lower mobile and fixed-line data prices. But is this complaint valid and even if it were, would more government regulation be an appropriate response? No, on both counts, argues renowned writer and commentator Ivo Vegter in a recent talk given at the Free Market Foundation (FMF) in Johannesburg. It appears that the vested interest data must fall lobby has grossly misrepresented the facts.</p>
<p>According to Vegter, government interference, failed policy, bad regulation and poor implementation have created a market in which apparently a few mobile network operators hold dominant positions and charge frustrated consumers high prices for data. The speed and intensity with which the data must fall campaign spread headline comparisons widely across social media showing South Africa to have exorbitant data charges, left many in the industry reeling and consumers outraged.</p>
<p>The FMF is concerned that the misinformed push towards lower data prices appears to have been an influential factor in the recent Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Policy White Paper, which intends a radical shake up of the ICT industry and has far-reaching implications for mobile network operators. Has it played a disproportionate and inappropriate part in formulating policy? Has the DTPS been too quick to accept the whims of a social media campaign and is it using negative public sentiment to drive through more bad policy?</p>
<p>Vegter raised the question of whether data is really so much more expensive than elsewhere in the world and concludes it is a complex and difficult question. Voice and data products are difficult to compare across different operators and countries. The widely circulated gang of four meme that took social and mainstream media by storm is blatant misinformation. It used the lower cost of 1 GB – R11 &#8211; in India offered as a limited special by a small operator and compared it with a standard out of bundle price in South Africa – R149. Bizarrely, the Parliamentary Communications Committee states that special pricing used by operators cannot be included in the calculations of the cost to communicate in South Africa yet this is a standard marketing tool used all over the world and has a significant impact on the average price of data.</p>
<p>On a pure price basis, South Africa compares fairly well with other countries, Vegter maintains. “At the high end of the mobile market, South Africans pay about R30 per gigabyte from Telkom, and R50 per gigabyte from mobile operators. That’s less than Australians and Americans pay, according to research conducted by MyBroadband. New Zealanders pay about two and a half times as much as we do. India comes in slightly cheaper at R26.30, while the UK is much cheaper at only R8.38 per gigabyte.”</p>
<p>“At the lower end of the market, India remains a little cheaper, but Australians, Britons, and Americans all pay about twice as much as South Africans do, with New Zealanders paying almost four times as much.”</p>
<p>Again, contrary to prevailing misinformation, adjusting for income levels, South Africans spend on average about 2.3% of their income on ICT, according to the latest figures from 2014 compiled by the International Telecommunications Union in its 2015 Measuring the Information Society Report.</p>
<p>Out of 170 countries, South Africa ranks about mid-way at 80<sup>th</sup>, in terms of communication cost as a share of income, behind Brazil and China, on a par with Chile, Hungary, and Mexico, and well ahead of India.</p>
<p>Vegter said that a pure price comparison is complicated by many factors including the rand/dollar rate in which almost all telecommunications equipment, including handsets, is priced and the long distances between South Africa and the rest of the world, where most of the internet is located. “We are dependent on a handful of undersea cables that span long distances, mostly to the northern hemisphere. Other factors are the size and geographical spread of South Africa and population density, which makes Internet infrastructure relatively more expensive, per capita”.</p>
<p>That South Africa’s prices are extraordinarily high, is far from clear.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Did data must fall lobby misrepresent the facts?

<p>Nigeria rushed plastic surgeons and other specialists on Monday to a city in the south to treat more than one hundred people injured when a church collapsed in one of the worst recent building accidents in the West African country.</p>
<p>&#8220;We &#8230; raised a team of experts to come to Uyo and render a helping hand and bring succor to the weak, the sick and those who are in dire need of complicated surgery,&#8221; Suleiman Giwa, head of the surgeons, told reporters at Uyo&#8217;s biggest hospital.</p>
<p>Two residents have told Reuters that at least 100 people were killed in the collapse in Uyo during a service on Saturday. Officials have said the death toll is around 32. Some 115 people were injured, according to emergency agency NEMA.</p>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads6"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads5"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads4"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads3"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads2"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads1"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads0"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p>Buildings collapses occur frequently in Nigeria and are often blamed on lack of construction permits and the use of cheap materials. Critics have said that authorities tend to understate the death toll at such accidents.</p>
<p>&#8220;It was by His grace that I am alive today,&#8221; said Grace Okonita, a mother of four who survived the collapse. &#8220;I lost one leg and my hand is broken.&#8221;﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Nigeria rushes surgeons to treat injured people in church collapse

<p>Thomson Reuters Foundation</p>
<p>﻿Africa will be able to grow enough cereals to feed its growing population by 2050, but only if it breaks a culture of complacency and starts now to invest more in agriculture, scientists said on Monday.</p>
<p>Sub-Saharan Africa currently imports about 20 percent of its cereal needs, and this could rise to at least 50 percent by 2050, researchers said in a report published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.</p>
<p>One way to meet growing demand is to expand the land area to grow crops, but this would mean cutting down forests or encroaching on protected nature reserves, leading to loss of biodiversity and increased greenhouse gas emissions, they said.</p>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads1"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads0"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p>However, it is possible for the continent to feed a population expected to grow 2.5 times by 2050 by producing more food on the land already being planted, the report said.</p>
<p>This would need investment to boost crop yields, an increase the number of crops grown on the same plot of land, and an expansion of irrigation, they said.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s achievable, but we have to break the complacency that we can continue with business as usual &#8230; (and) still feed ourselves,&#8221; said Kindie Tesfaye, co-author of the report and a scientist with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Addis Ababa.</p>
<p>&#8220;In many countries agriculture gets the lowest financial support in terms of GDP,&#8221; he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation by phone.</p>
<p>Complacency among donors is also a problem, he said. After international food prices soared in 2008, both donors and African governments invested more in agriculture, but investments fell once the prices levelled off, he said.</p>
<p>&#8220;African countries need to look at what is coming in the next 50 or 60 years, in terms of feeding their population. That has to be planned ahead of time,&#8221; Tesfaye said.</p>
<p>The researchers looked at ten countries which together represent 54 percent of the total population of sub-Saharan Africa and 58 percent of its arable land.</p>
<p>They found that cereal yields in most countries surveyed are growing slower than population and demand, while the area planted has increased 14 percent in the last 10 years.</p>
<p>They also found that closing the gap between current yields per crop and potential yields &#8211; which in Africa is very wide &#8211; is not enough alone to feed Africa&#8217;s growing population.</p>
<p>&#8220;We were surprised, because the assumption is that &#8230; if Africa could close that gap, then it could feed itself and even be a bread basket for the rest of the world,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is projected to occur in Africa, according to U.N. data.</p>
<p>&#8220;If intensification is not successful and massive cropland expansion is to be avoided, sub-Saharan Africa will become ever more dependent on imports of cereals than it is today,&#8221; Tesfaye said.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Scientists say Africa must act now to feed itself in 2050

<p>Zimbabwe held its first ever public interviews for the vacant post of Chief Justice on Monday, reflecting President Robert Mugabe&#8217;s reduced authority under a constitution adopted three years ago in the southern African country.</p>
<p>In the past, Mugabe had sole authority to appoint the head of the judiciary, but the 2013 charter requires candidates to be interviewed by the Judicial Services Commission (JSC), a panel of mostly senior judges and lawyers.</p>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads3"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads2"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads1"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="teads-inread">
<div>
<div class="teads-player" id="teads0"></div>
</div>
</div>
<p>Mugabe then chooses from three names submitted by the JSC.</p>
<p>A University of Zimbabwe law student last week asked the High Court to stop the interviews, arguing the process was not transparent since the candidates were colleagues of, and known to, the interviewing panel.</p>
<p>The High Court on Sunday ruled in favour of the student, who also wanted Mugabe alone to appoint the Chief Justice. The government says it plans to change the constitution to give Mugabe that sole responsibility.</p>
<p>But the JSC, which employs all judges and magistrates, appealed the decision at the Supreme Court, automatically setting aside the High Court ruling.</p>
<p>The JSC decided early on Monday to hold the interviews, which were broadcast live on state television.</p>
<p>Three candidates were interviewed: deputy chief justice Luke Malaba, Paddington Garwe, a Supreme Court and Constitutional Court judge, and Rita Makarau, chairwoman of the Electoral Commission and secretary of the JSC.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


News