Nigerian economic outlook

Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics recently released the country's fourth quarter 2016 employment figures and first quarter trade data, painting a mixed picture of the nation's economic landscape. While the data revealed an improvement in Nigeria's trade balance, there was also a concerning rise in the unemployment rate. Dr. Bongo Adi, a Senior Lecturer at the Lagos Business School, shed light on the current economic outlook during a recent interview on CNBC Africa. One of the key themes of the discussion was the trade balance, which has historically been in deficit for Nigeria. Dr. Adi noted that there has been a positive development in the trade balance for the first time in several years, primarily driven by non-oil manufacturing. However, the trade sector is not without its challenges, with companies facing difficulties due to the recession and shedding jobs as a result. Dr. Adi highlighted the importance of infrastructure improvement in supporting the manufacturing sector and potentially boosting recruitment. The interview also delved into the agricultural sector, which remains a significant employer in Nigeria. Despite agriculture being the primary employer, growth in this space has been relatively low. Dr. Adi emphasized the interconnectedness of agriculture with other sectors, particularly manufacturing and transportation, noting that infrastructure challenges impact the overall productivity of the agricultural sector. He expressed cautious optimism about potential growth in agriculture in the second quarter, underscoring the need for broader infrastructure development to drive positive outcomes. Another focal point of the discussion was the impact of currency devaluation on trade and export growth. While the devaluation of the currency has contributed to an improvement in the trade balance, Dr. Adi discussed the importance of the terms of trade in enhancing productivity and driving sustainable economic growth. He highlighted the need for productivity improvements to sustain positive trade outcomes and emphasized the significance of value addition in export strategies, particularly in the agricultural sector. Dr. Adi also touched upon the potential for increasing non-oil exports, emphasizing the need for value addition and formalizing trade relationships with neighboring countries. He highlighted the vast opportunities for processing and value addition in the agricultural sector, pointing to the neglected potential in trading with neighboring countries in the region. Dr. Adi called for a coherent economic policy that prioritizes regional trade partnerships and fosters value creation within the African market. In conclusion, the interview with Dr. Bongo Adi provided valuable insights into Nigeria's economic challenges and opportunities. While the nation grapples with rising unemployment rates and infrastructure deficiencies, there are also avenues for growth and development through strategic policy interventions and a focus on value addition and regional trade partnerships. As Nigeria navigates its economic landscape, addressing these key issues will be crucial in fostering sustainable growth and addressing the pressing challenges facing the country's economy.