Grading Buhari’s economic performance over the past 5 years

President Muhammadu Buhari marked his five-year anniversary in leadership in Nigeria on May 29th. As the country reflects on the past five years of his administration, Vincent Nwani, a Business and Investment Consultant, provides an economic scorecard of President Buhari's tenure. Nwani highlighted several key economic indicators that paint a picture of the administration's performance. Despite certain achievements, there are clear challenges that need to be addressed to steer Nigeria towards sustainable economic growth and development. Let's delve into the analysis of Buhari's economic performance over the past five years and explore the recommendations for the way forward. One of the key themes that emerged from Nwani's assessment is the discrepancy between the government's targets and the actual economic performance. The administration aimed for a GDP growth rate of 7%, but the current figure stands at 1.87%, signaling a significant gap. Additionally, inflation remains in double digits at around 12%, up from 8% five years ago. Exchange rates have also deteriorated, with the official rate now at $380-$390 compared to $197-$195 five years ago. Total debt has surged to approximately 27 trillion, a marked increase from 12 trillion five years back. While improvements have been made in the ease of doing business ranking, with Nigeria climbing to 131st position from 170th, other economic metrics underscore the need for substantial reforms. Another crucial point raised by Nwani is the imperative to diversify Nigeria's economy. While the government has outlined diversification as a priority, tangible actions are needed to drive this agenda forward. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has plummeted, falling below one billion dollars, in stark contrast to over five billion dollars five years ago. Nwani emphasized the necessity of implementing structural reforms to attract FDI, enhance business competitiveness, and reduce reliance on oil revenues. Without meaningful reforms and a concerted effort to diversify the economy, Nigeria's economic resilience and growth prospects remain uncertain. Furthermore, Nwani acknowledged certain accomplishments of the administration, such as the reduction in rice imports and the Anchors Borrowers Program, which has supported local rice production. However, challenges persist, including prevailing food insecurity and rising commodity prices. Unemployment rates have also spiked, with projections indicating an increase to around 30% due to the compounded impact of COVID-19 and preexisting economic vulnerabilities. As Nigeria teeters on the brink of a potential recession, urgent measures are required to stimulate economic recovery and job creation. In light of the economic realities facing Nigeria, Nwani stressed the critical role of reforms across various sectors to catalyze growth and attract investments. He underscored the need for reforms in the power, infrastructure, transportation, and oil and gas sectors to unlock economic potential and foster private sector participation. Nwani emphasized that a robust reform agenda, akin to the transformations witnessed in the telecom and banking sectors, is vital to position Nigeria as a competitive player in the global economy. As Nigeria navigates the economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis, the imperative for bold and decisive actions to revitalize the economy has never been more pressing. The road ahead for President Buhari's administration hinges on its ability to implement strategic reforms, foster a conducive business environment, and prioritize sustainable economic policies that propel Nigeria towards inclusive growth and prosperity.