How COVID-19 could condemn millions of Africans into extreme poverty

The African Development Bank (AFDB) has issued a stark warning that an additional 49 million Africans could be pushed into extreme poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. The latest forecasts from the Africa Economic Outlook highlight that Central Africa and West Africa are expected to be the hardest-hit regions in this crisis. In a recent interview on CNBC Africa, Kayode Akindele, Partner at TIA Capital, discussed the implications of these forecasts and the measures that African governments and development partners need to take in order to mitigate the effects of this looming poverty crisis. Akindele commended African governments for their efforts in managing the COVID-19 infection rates, considering the limited resources available. He compared Africa's response favorably to that of more developed countries like the US, citing the continent's experience in dealing with previous health crises such as Ebola as a factor that has helped in tackling the current pandemic. The AFDB's revised forecast projects a potential 2% to 3% rebound in Africa's growth post-COVID-19 in 2021. Akindele acknowledged the ambitious nature of this prediction, noting that it relies heavily on factors such as a V-shaped recovery and stability in commodity markets for resource-rich countries like Nigeria and Angola. He emphasized the need for debt relief and effective management of the economic challenges facing these nations in order to achieve the projected growth. Furthermore, Akindele addressed the call for collaboration between the public and private sectors, echoing the World Bank's emphasis on the importance of coordinated efforts. He stressed the need for policy interventions to support the private sector, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), during this period of economic uncertainty. Akindele highlighted the role of the private sector in funding healthcare initiatives and adapting work practices to promote social distancing measures. One of the key recommendations from the AFDB is the adoption of a phased and incremental approach that balances economic and health needs. Akindele reflected on the challenges faced by African countries in implementing reopening strategies, noting the delicate balance between economic survival and public health concerns. He pointed out the dilemma of countries that lack the fiscal reserves to support prolonged lockdowns and highlighted the urgent need for individuals to earn a living, especially in the absence of government assistance. The interview underscored the complex challenges faced by African nations in navigating the economic repercussions of the pandemic while safeguarding public health. As the AFDB's projections signal a potentially dire increase in extreme poverty, it is clear that concerted and strategic actions must be taken at both the national and international levels to prevent millions of Africans from falling into destitution.