The cost of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region

Ethiopia, known as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, is now facing a crisis that threatens to derail its economic progress. The recent two-week conflict between Ethiopian government forces and rebel forces from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has resulted in hundreds of casualties and a flood of refugees into Sudan. To gain a deeper understanding of the situation, CNBC Africa spoke with Political Analyst Samuel Getachew. The conflict has roots that date back to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rise to power two years ago. The tensions between Abiy and the TPLF leadership in Tigray escalated when the TPLF decided to hold elections against the federal government's orders and launched a military attack on a national military base. The TPLF, who had held federal power for 27 years prior to Abiy's tenure, found it challenging to accept their diminished influence after Abiy took office. They chose to abstain from joining Abiy's pan-African political party and instead retreated to Tigray, leading to the ongoing conflict. While Tigray only represents 6% of Ethiopia's population, it played a significant role in the country's governance due to its historical dominance. However, the TPLF's rule was marred by allegations of human rights abuses and lack of democracy. Abiy aimed to introduce reforms upon assuming office, which were initially met with acceptance. However, the TPLF's refusal to embrace these reforms stemmed from feeling neglected and sidelined by the new government. The economic ramifications of the conflict are dire, with potential long-lasting effects on Ethiopia's growth trajectory. The escalation of the conflict could further deter foreign investment and impact the country's image. Ethiopia had been making strides in attracting investments and privatizing state-owned industries, but the current situation threatens to reverse these gains. The humanitarian crisis unfolding in Tigray, with tens of thousands seeking refuge in Sudan, highlights the toll of the conflict on innocent civilians, particularly the elderly and children left behind. As the conflict unfolds, the accountability for the crisis remains a pressing question. Prime Minister Abiy has expressed his determination to conclude the mission swiftly, with the Ethiopian army closing in on the capital of Tigray. The government aims to restore stability to a region plagued by longstanding conflicts and suffering. However, the UN estimates that the number of Ethiopians seeking shelter in Sudan could rise significantly, placing a strain on limited resources and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. In the end, it is Ethiopia as a whole that will bear the brunt of the conflict's impact. The country faces the risk of losing the economic progress it had made in recent years, as investors rethink their commitments in light of the instability. While the government's response post-conflict will be crucial in determining the country's future trajectory, the immediate priority lies in addressing the humanitarian needs of those affected by the violence. In conclusion, the conflict in Tigray poses a significant threat to Ethiopia's economic prospects and stability. The repercussions of the crisis extend beyond political unrest, affecting the lives of countless individuals and the country's economic outlook. As the international community watches closely, the hope remains for a swift resolution to the conflict and a path towards healing and progress for Ethiopia.