How slowing cocoa demand will impact Côte d’Ivoire’s economy

Côte d’Ivoire, a West African nation, has been grappling with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its economy, particularly on its main cash crop cocoa. With the World Bank estimating a 5.5 per cent growth and the IMF projecting a growth rate of 6.2 per cent for the country this year, the second wave of the pandemic has disrupted its key export market. Nonyane Gaimin, an independent economist, shared insights on the challenges and opportunities ahead for Côte d’Ivoire. The country has shown resilience in the face of the pandemic, being one of the few in sub-Saharan Africa to achieve growth when others were contracting. However, with the resurgence of cases in Côte d’Ivoire and its major export market, the EU, which accounts for 40% of its trade, there are concerns about the impact on the economy. Lockdowns and restrictions in key markets are expected to dampen the recovery prospects for Côte d’Ivoire. Political stability is also essential for economic growth in the country. The post-election period has been marked by unrest, with legislative elections on the horizon. Addressing these political challenges is crucial to promoting Côte d’Ivoire's economic agenda and sustaining its growth momentum. Looking to the future, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement presents significant opportunities for Côte d’Ivoire. The agreement can boost the country's manufacturing sector, facilitate exports, and provide tariff-free access to other markets. While there are challenges in terms of determining rules of origin and replacing customs revenue, Côte d’Ivoire is well-positioned with its infrastructure and institutions to benefit from the agreement by meeting the demand for goods from other countries. As the country navigates through the complexities of a global pandemic and political transitions, strategic economic policies and partnerships will be crucial in mitigating the impact of slowing cocoa demand on Côte d’Ivoire's economy and fostering sustainable growth.