ANC factional battles: How strong is Ramaphosa’s hand?

In a dramatic turn of events, the African National Congress (ANC) has been embroiled in factional battles and suspensions, shaking the core of the ruling party. The recent suspension of the ANC's Secretary-General, Ace Magashule, followed by his retaliatory suspension of President Cyril Ramaphosa, has left the political landscape in turmoil. To gain insights into the unfolding situation, CNBC Africa hosted political analyst Ralph Mathekga and Peter Attard Montalto, Head of Capital Markets Research at Intellidex. The discussion shed light on the magnitude of the recent events and the implications for the ANC's future. While the suspensions have created uncertainty within the party, the question remains: How strong is Ramaphosa's hand in leading the ANC? Ralph Mathekga described the suspensions as expected but highlighted the unprecedented move by Magashule to suspend the President. He emphasized the need for urgent clarity within the ANC to reassure the nation about the party's governance. Mathekga expressed skepticism about the Secretary-General's future, noting the complexities and potential resistance within the party. He cautioned that the ANC must reset and clarify its position to navigate the ongoing crisis. Peter Attard Montalto echoed Mathekga's sentiments, emphasizing the deep-rooted fractures within the ANC and the challenges Ramaphosa faces in consolidating power. Montalto emphasized that the recent developments did not signify a significant shift in party dynamics and that broader reforms would take time to materialize. While acknowledging Ramaphosa's control over certain aspects of the party, Montalto underscored the long road ahead towards uniting the ANC. The discussion also touched on the potential market implications of the ANC suspensions. Montalto downplayed the immediate impact on market sentiment, citing other economic factors driving investor behavior. He suggested that the ANC's internal struggles were not the primary driver of market dynamics at present. Mathekga concurred that while the suspensions may have political ramifications, they were unlikely to drastically alter market dynamics in the short term. At the core of the debate was the question of whether Ramaphosa's leadership could drive meaningful economic reforms. Montalto emphasized the distinction between political maneuvers and policy implementation, highlighting the need for decisive action on key policy issues. He pointed to energy reform as a critical area where tangible progress was essential for economic growth. Montalto's analysis underscored the importance of capacity building and regulatory reforms in unlocking economic potential. He cautioned against conflating political intrigue with substantive policy changes, emphasizing the need for sustained reform efforts. The discussion concluded with a nuanced assessment of the ANC's prospects in upcoming elections and the broader societal impact of the party's internal dynamics. In the aftermath of the ANC suspensions, the spotlight remains on Ramaphosa's ability to navigate the party's challenges and drive meaningful change. As South Africa grapples with economic uncertainties and political turbulence, the future of the ANC hangs in the balance. The coming months will test Ramaphosa's leadership and the resilience of the ANC as it seeks to regain stability and public trust amid ongoing factional battles.