Counting the cost of endless "trade wars" in the East African region

The East African region has been plagued by trade wars that are putting the common market protocol and customs union at risk. These trade disputes have stemmed from competing interests within the region, with some advocating for cheaper goods while others seek to protect local livelihoods. Chief Economist at Mentoria Economics, Ken Gisinger, shed light on the root causes and economic impacts of these trade wars in a recent interview with CNBC Africa. Gisinger emphasized that the uncertainty and unpredictability generated by these disputes have hindered investments and disrupted trade flows in the region. With the COVID-19 pandemic adding another layer of complexity, varying border regulations and testing requirements have further complicated intra-regional trade. Gisinger highlighted the potential for economic growth in the East African Community (EAC) if an open trade regime is adopted. He noted that the EAC's historical ties, cultural similarities, and vast resources offer a solid foundation for regional cooperation and development. However, he stressed the importance of policymakers and economists working collaboratively to address key issues and promote sustainable trade practices. The impending inclusion of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as the seventh member of the EAC raised questions about the bloc's capacity to effectively integrate new members while strengthening existing relationships. Gisinger acknowledged the commercial opportunities presented by the DRC but cautioned that consolidating gains with immediate neighbors must take precedence before expanding further. As the EAC navigates trade challenges within its borders, the prospect of joining the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) looms large. Gisinger underscored the need for harmonious communication and understanding among diverse linguistic and cultural groups to maximize the benefits of regional trade agreements. The role of the East African Court of Justice in resolving trade disputes was also discussed, with Gisinger emphasizing the importance of building a common understanding among member states to facilitate legal and regulatory cooperation. Looking ahead to 2022, Gisinger predicted that trade wars in the EAC could intensify, driven by political considerations and local election dynamics. The protection of local industries, such as agriculture, may feature prominently in political agendas, leading to further tensions in the region's trade landscape. Despite these challenges, Gisinger expressed optimism about the region's economic potential and the opportunity for sustainable growth through enhanced collaboration and informed decision-making.