SSA’s economic outlook: What to expect in 2022’s second half

Sub-Saharan Africa faces a mixed economic outlook in the second half of 2022, with winners and losers emerging amid global uncertainties. The region grapples with the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war, which have led to significant downside risks, particularly in terms of inflation. Rising global commodity prices, including cereals, food, wheat, and sunflower oil, are impacting African economies, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket carries a heavier weightage of food than in other regions. The war in Ukraine has also led to a shift in commodity demand, as advanced economies seek alternatives to Russia and Ukraine. While some countries like Nigeria are struggling due to low oil production volumes, others like Angola have benefited from rigorous reforms and debt relief. South Africa, on the other hand, has managed to maintain a positive outlook due to supportive commodity prices and prudent fiscal policies. However, the region faces challenges from global economic trends, including high inflation and recession fears, which could hit big food and oil importers the hardest. Countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Egypt are particularly vulnerable as they heavily rely on fuel and food imports, leading to concerns about rising inflation and economic stability.