New ANC leader Ramaphosa makes South Africans richer in 1 month than Zuma managed in 8 years


Charlie Robertson | Renaissance Capital

The exchange rate move has been incredible. If you divided the annual average per capita GDP estimate of the IMF for 2017 by the spot exchange rate a month ago ..vs 3 minutes ago .. the (expected) Ramaphosa victory is worth $855 to every South African.  (Yes this is graph crime .. because we economists use the average exchange rate to calculate the per capita GDP .. but to be fair to this graph .. the average ZAR rate could have been 14.5 if NDZ won and 12.5 with CR winning – so it kind of works).

Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

To put that into context – since 2009 when Zuma formally became president of SA, and using the IMF’s average $ exchange rate forecast for SA in 2017, each South African has got just $163 better off in the past 8 years – which is roughly $20 annually

So Ramaphosa (assuming he’s won) has made South Africans richer in one month than Zuma managed in 8 years.

Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital.

But hard to justify the ZAR moving stronger than 12.5/$ without further political change.