LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; Orange, France’s number one telecoms operator, sees the planned liberalisation of Ethiopia’s telecoms market taking shape in 2020, Chief Financial Officer Ramon Fernandez said on Friday. 



Ethiopia is one of the last countries whose telecoms industry remains in the hands of the government. Orange is one of the leading contenders seeking to benefit from the end of state-controlled Ethio Telecom’s monopoly, pushed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.



Sources told Reuters earlier this month that the government aimed to award telecom licenses by the end of 2019, with the new operators expected to launch services next year. However some industry executives have expressed scepticism over the timetable. [nL8N23J39U]



“The most likely scenario as of today seems to be the opening of the incumbent’s capital to a minority shareholder who could play a significant role within the company,” Fernandez told Reuters in an interview in London.



“And, in parallel, the opening of the market through the sale of at least one license to an operator,” Fernandez added.



The Orange executive also said a split of Ethio Telecom between an infrastructure provider and telecom services provider was unlikely, contradicting earlier reports. [nL8N23O56V]



“I’m not certain this is the main scenario as of today. It’s up to the Ethiopian authorities to decide, but we’re convinced that a split between telecoms operators and infrastructure operators is not the best option,” Fernandez said.



Africa and the Middle East is Orange’s fastest-growing region for the telecoms group, which controls 17 operators on the continent.



The group, which competes with other major players such as Vodafone-controlled Vodacom, Airtel Africa and South Africa’s MTN in the region, generated 5.2 billion euros ($5.9 billion) in the area last year, up 5% from a year earlier.



“This a pace we can keep on the long run, with a profitability performance at the same level, or even above,” Fernandez said.



The group is betting that its financial services provider Orange Money, which offers money transfers and payment services, will help it in the race to get into Ethiopia’s market, he added.



($1 = 0.8835 euros)



Reporting by Mathieu Rosemain; Additional reporting by Joe Bavier; Editing by Sudip Kar-Gupta and David Holmes

Here’s why Orange sees Ethiopia’s telco liberalisation taking shape in 2020

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia will split its state telecoms provider into two businesses before it is privatised, state-affiliated media reported on Monday, a key part of government’s plan to open up one of the world’s last major closed telecoms markets.



The government will split Ethio Telecom into two business units along infrastructure and service sector lines, state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting quoted Minister of Finance Ahmed Shide as saying.



State Minister of Finance Eyob Tekalign Tolina confirmed the report.



Ethiopia could require as much as $2.2 billion to modernise its creaking, overburdened telecoms sector, Eyob told Reuters last week.



Privatisation is one of the key reforms promised by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. He wants to encourage competition and foreign investment after decades of state-driven economic growth.



Ethiopia passed a bill on Thursday outlining the scope of a regulator for the telecoms sector, a key milestone towards attracting outside investment in the nation of 100 million people.



Additional reporting by George Obulutsa; writing by Katharine Houreld, editing by Deepa Babington

Ethiopia plans to split state telecoms provider into two before privatisation, here’s why

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia’s prime minister met members of 81 opposition parties on Tuesday to discuss ways of reforming the electoral system, his office said, as he pressed on with promises to open up a political arena dominated by his coalition.
Abiy Ahmed has turned national politics on its head since coming to power in April by welcoming back exiled opposition and separatist groups, releasing prisoners and appointing a formerly jailed dissident as head of the election board.
The meeting focused “on highlighting the reforms required to ensure the upcoming election is free &amp; fair, and the shared responsibilities of all,” his office said on Twitter. There was no immediate comment from any of the opposition groups.
Abiy’s ruling EPRDF coalition has been in power in Ethiopia &#8211; a major Western ally in an unstable region &#8211; since 1991. The grouping and its affiliated parties currently hold all the seats in parliament.
Last week he appointed Birtukan Mideksa as head of the board preparing for the next national elections, scheduled for 2020.
Birtukan was one of dozens of opposition figures arrested in the violent aftermath of a 2005 vote &#8211; when an opposition coalition stood against the government across the country, then challenged the EPRDF’s victory.
Security forces opened fire on crowds who took to the streets accusing the government and the election board of rigging the 2005 vote. Dozens died.
Abiy &#8211; the first member of Ethiopia’s majority Oromo group to lead a coalition long dominated by ethnic Tigrayans &#8211; has promised to rein in the powerful security services and started consultations to rework an anti-terrorism law that critics said had criminalised dissent.
Writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Andrew Heavens

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed held a meeting with opposition parties, here’s what was discussed

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; A powerful party in Ethiopia’s government accused authorities of arresting members of its ethnic group in a politically-driven crackdown &#8211; an unprecedented public charge exposing deep rifts at the heart of the ruling elite.
The accusation marked growing tensions between elements in the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) &#8211; a movement that has dominated Ethiopia for decades &#8211; and new reformist prime minister Abiy Ahmed who has upended politics with a string of radical reforms.
At least 79 security officers, officials, businessmen and women, many of them Tigrayan, have been arrested since last week &#8211; under what the government said was a clamp-down on corruption and mistreatment of prisoners.
Amenty International and other rights grops have welcomed the arrests. But TPLF chair Debretsion Gebremichael said on Monday the arrests ordered under “the pretext of corruption and human rights are being used to attack Tigrayans”.
The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Debretsion’s remarks.
Abiy’s rise &#8211; as Ethiopia’s first leader from the majority Oromo group &#8211; had transformed decades-old hierarchies in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition that was founded by the TPLF and came to power in 1991.
Soon after Abiy was inaugurated in April, he made peace with long-time foe Eritrea and started pushing reforms he said were meant to rein in the military and security services and limit their involvement in the economy &#8211; changes that have been largely welcomed by Western powers.
The TPLF’s Debretsion did not spell out who he thought was behind the arrests, that were announced by the government’s attorney general. “There is a foreign involvement in the process. Thus, it is unacceptable,” he said, without giving further details.
Debretsion picked out last week’s arrest of Kinfe Dagnew, a Tigrayan major general in the army and former chief executive of the METEC military-led conglomerate.
“While Kinfe was arrested peacefully, they tied him handcuffs. This is a political attack,” Debretsion told a news conference.
“While they should have gone after an individual, they went after an ethnic group and a party,” he said in comments aired by Dimtsi Woyane TV.
Kinfe and others appeared in court but have not been charged or entered any pleas. There have been no statements from them or lawyers representing them.
Writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Andrew Heavens

Ethiopia’s government is being accused by powerful party of ethnic crackdown, what you need to know…

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki says Eritrea and Ethiopia have built trust since signing a peace deal in July, but need to iron out further elements of their ties to make their cooperation sustainable.
The neighbours had been bitter enemies ever since a two-year border war, in which some 80,000 people were killed, broke out in 1998 following disagreements over trade.
Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, extended an olive branch in April, shortly after his appointment, as part of a package of reforms that have reshaped the political landscape in the Horn of Africa.
Since then, the countries have reopened crossing points and embassies and resumed flights between their capitals.
Isaias told state-run television that the peace deal had heralded a “transitional stage that will lead to a new era” between the neighbours.
“The priority now is to create an environment for this new reality to flourish,” he told Eri-TV late on Saturday.
“We need to consolidate. One by one, we have to clearly state our issues and solidify them on a concrete basis. The reality is new, but it has to be sustainable,” Isaias added, without going into specifics.
“The agenda of pitting Eritrea against Ethiopia as antagonists, an agenda that also sought to isolate Eritrea globally, has concluded. It never succeeded.”
Editing by George Obulutsa and Kevin Liffey

How Ethiopia and Eritrea can strengthen trust since signing peace deal

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; The World Bank has approved $1.2 billion in grants and loans to Ethiopia.
The bank said in a statement posted on its website late on Tuesday that the funds — a $600 million grant and a $600 million loan — would go towards supporting reforms in the financial sector including improving the investment climate.
In response to the reform pledges made by the government since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in April, the bank is providing new financial and technical support, it said in the statement.
The support will promote public-private partnerships “to improve efficiency in key sectors” including telecom, power, and trade logistics, the bank said.
In these sectors, the bank said its support would also help the government “reduce inefficiencies and operating costs and improve financial performance” to help Ethiopia attract more foreign direct investment and raise export revenues.
Until Abiy took office and began announcing sweeping political and economic reforms, the country of 105 million had an economy tightly controlled by the state. Investors hope the economic reforms announced in June could significantly loosen the state’s grip on the economy.
Reporting by George Obulutsa; Writing by Maggie Fick; Editing by Alison Williams

The World Bank has approved $1.2 bn in grants and loans to this East African country

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yohannes-gedamu-432503">Yohannes Gedamu</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/georgia-gwinnett-college-2416">Georgia Gwinnett College</a>
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition has <a href="https://ethsat.com/2018/10/ethiopia-re-elected-as-chairman-of-ruling-party-abiy-ahmed-garners-vote-of-confidence-to-continue-reforms/">re-elected Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as its chairman</a>. This means that Ahmed will continue as prime minister until the next party congress. It is with this certainty that he has taken the opportunity to <a href="https://www.apnews.com/93bc411f2c68438db25b31b3d68943ef">reassemble his cabinet</a> for the second time this year.
The latest reshuffle has downsized cabinet departments from 28 to 20. Ten of the new ministerial appointments are women, meaning that Ahmed has <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/10/16/female-appointees-form-half-of-ethiopia-s-new-cabinet-reports//">achieved a 50% gender balance</a> in his new team.
This is a significant milestone. But perhaps of more importance is the creation of a ministry of peace. Ahmed has made it clear that peace is central to his reforms agenda. The new peace ministry is therefore an effort to ensure that this agenda remains on course. The question is: how effective can it be in the long run?
<h2>National security</h2>
The <a href="https://twitter.com/fitsumaregaa/status/1052477095518064640">new peace ministry will oversee</a> intelligence and security related agencies, federal affairs, immigration and others. It has been created with the hope that it will improve ethnic relations in the country, and work towards reconciliation among communities <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ethnic-violence-is-destabilising-ethiopias-reform-gains-103928">ravaged by unprecedented levels of ethnic violence</a> over the last two decades.
This is a broad mandate, which one single ministry might not be able to achieve. Ahmed’s intent, nonetheless, is to show his administration’s desire to pursue a peace agenda with the view to building a stable and more tolerant nation state.
But his ‘peace ministry’ approach might prove problematic.
Firstly, it will need to recognise the root causes of ethnic tension in Ethiopia. So far, Ahmed’s administration has continued to prioritise ethnic politics and the furthering of the rights of groups over the rights of individual citizens. This approach has historically pitted ethnic groups against each other, often resulting in inter-ethnic violence.
Secondly, the power structure in Ethiopia has not changed. The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front remains the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-survival-ruling-eprdf-180528082306152.html">most powerful political force</a> in the country. If Ahmed wants to transform Ethiopia, he must also take strides to create democratic change within the coalition. The front must embrace internal, ideological reforms for peace and security to be achieved in Ethiopia at large.
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17531055.2011.642522">Revolutionary democracy</a>, or the idea that the enlightened élites should lead the unconscious masses to the revolution, has been the ruling coalition’s main political and economic ideology. In Ethiopia, it has prioritised the party agenda over the sanctity of the country’s constitution, which is also problematic. If the coalition refuses to expand its democratic space, Ethiopia’s history of exclusion and oppression may continue uninterrupted.
<h2>Peace priorities</h2>
The creation of a ministry to work exclusively on peace and security matters is admirable. However, Ahmed’s administration must also attempt to reform the country’s ethnic federal system of government, which is built around regional administrations.
Disparities between these administrative regions pose serious challenges to Ethiopian unity. Some regions like Oromia, Amhara, Tigray and the south are considered developed. While others, like Gambella, Benishangul Gumuz, Somali and far flung regions, are still developing. This economic inequity has precipitated ethnic competition, a race for resources and evictions of people from certain areas.
The ruling coalition must also look beyond the demands of survivalist politics. Ahmed and his peers in leadership therefore need to focus on legacy, rather than short-term gains.
An important legacy would be the peaceful co-existence of ethnic groups, and the re-imagining of Ethiopian nationalism. This can be achieved by encouraging citizens to participate in politics, not by constraining their rights to associate freely. Thus, if Ahmed’s administration maintains a clear focus on the rights of every Ethiopian, it could end up being one of the most consequential political administrations in Ethiopia’s modern political era.
All eyes are now trained on the new peace ministry, <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/10/17/muferiat-kamil-ethiopia-s-historic-speaker-now-first-peace-minister//">headed by Muferiyat Kamil</a>. The former speaker of the house has a hefty job on her hands, given the high expectations that have been placed on her ministry. She is privileged, however, to have a self-professed reformist as an ally at the helm of government.
The creation of the ministry <a href="https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ethiopias-ambitious-leader-reaches-stars?utm_source=Twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=article">has been lauded</a> but it has also been criticised for concentrating political power in Kamil’s hands. She is one of Ahmed’s most loyal allies in the ruling coalition.
<h2>A time for reform</h2>
Since Ahmed <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/abiye-ahmed-sworn-ethiopia-prime-minister-180402082621161.html">became prime minister</a> he has taken great strides to transform Ethiopia’s politics.
The <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/07/17/how-ethiopia-and-eritrea-made-peace">historic peace agreement</a> signed with Eritrea has also had a transformational effect on the greater East Africa region. Regional peace discussions are slowly being replaced with <a href="https://qz.com/africa/1398502/ethiopia-eritrea-somalia-djibouti-peace-deals-bring-hope-to-horn-of-africa/">talks of economic integration</a>.
Unfortunately, Ahmed’s reform agenda has been threatened by <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-12-15/hundreds-thousands-displaced-ethiopians-are-caught-between-ethnic-violence-and">flurries of ethnic conflict</a> in his own backyard. Hundreds of thousands of poeple have been evicted from their homes <a href="https://theconversation.com/persecution-of-ethnic-amharas-will-harm-ethiopias-reform-agenda-98201">because of their ethnicity</a>. Going forward, this could challenge the stability of the Ethiopian state.
Moreover, questions are beginning to arise about Ahmed’s sincerity and commitment to genuine political change. When <a href="https://ethsat.com/2018/09/ethiopia-at-least-25-killed-in-burayu-in-ethnic-attacks-police-killed-5-in-addis-ababa/">25 people were killed</a> in Addis Ababa a few weeks ago, the city’s youth staged demonstrations to call for better security. The government responded with undue force; <a href="http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/ea/Scores-killed-and-others-arrested-after-Addis-clashes/4552908-4775844-9jd60az/index.html">scores were killed</a> and thousands stayed in unlawful detention for over a month.
<a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/10/18/ethiopia-to-free-over-1000-youth-detained-over-sept-violence/">After their release</a> some of those who spoke up for them were arrested by the security forces. Among those arrested was <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/10/18/ethiopia-activists-knock-police-over-arrest-of-top-rights-lawyer/">Henok Aklilu</a>, a young lawyer and human rights defender. International organisations like Amnesty International <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/10/ethiopia-release-immediately-and-unconditionally-human-rights-defender-arrested-for-exercising-freedom-of-expression/">demanded and successfully secured his release</a> but others remain in detention. Amnesty released a statement saying that his arrest
<blockquote>… highlights the difficulties human rights defenders continue to face despite the Ethiopian government’s stated commitment to open up space for dissenting voices.</blockquote>
It’s safe to say that Ahmed’s push for political change is now under scrutiny. He must regroup with haste and address the injustices that have been meted out by the state infrastructure for decades.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105231/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yohannes-gedamu-432503">Yohannes Gedamu</a>, Lecturer of Political Science, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/georgia-gwinnett-college-2416">Georgia Gwinnett College</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ethiopias-new-cabinet-fits-into-ahmeds-reform-agenda-105231">original article</a>.

Here’s how Ethiopia’s new cabinet aligns with Prime Minister’s reform plans

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yohannes-gedamu-432503">Yohannes Gedamu</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/georgia-gwinnett-college-2416">Georgia Gwinnett College</a>
There’s no doubt that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s first five months in office have brought <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-releases-high-profile-political-prisoners/a-42590273">enormous change</a> to the country. He’s also been hailed for shepherding Ethiopia to a <a href="https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1396331/saudi-king-hosts-ethiopia-eritrea-peace-summit-jeddah">historic peace agreement</a> with neighbour Eritrea.
Thanks to Abiy’s astounding short-term gains, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/08/abiy-ahmed-meets-the-ethiopian-diaspora/566591/">Ethiopians both at home and abroad</a> are feeling hopeful.
But all is not well in Ethiopia. <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-talk-of-peace-fails-to-quell-ethnic-clashes/a-45620873">Ethnic tensions and violence</a> are on the rise. Ethnic conflicts <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/ethiopia-the-anuaks-forgo_b_795330.html">are not new</a>, but the levels of violence being witnessed today are very disturbing.
Ethiopia has more than <a href="https://msu.edu/%7Ehudson/HECcensus.pdf">80 ethnic groups</a>. Despite recent improvements, it also has <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/publication/ethiopia-poverty-assessment">a weak economy</a> and an overwhelmingly poor citizenry. If Abiy wants to make a genuine attempt at real democracy he must do away with tribal politics and make stronger strides towards national unity.
<h2>Ethnic tension</h2>
The renewed ethnic tension is unfolding on several fronts.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/persecution-of-ethnic-amharas-will-harm-ethiopias-reform-agenda-98201">Ethnic Amharas</a> who were evicted and displaced from the Benshangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions are yet to receive government assistance. Most of the ethnic Oromos who were <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-12-15/hundreds-thousands-displaced-ethiopians-are-caught-between-ethnic-violence-and">evicted in their hundreds of thousands</a> from Ethiopia’s Somali region in 2017 remain displaced.
The ethnic Somalis who <a href="https://www.opride.com/2018/07/31/oromo-militias-killed-50-somalis-displaced-hundreds-as-tit-for-tat-violence-spiraled-out-of-control-in-moyale/">were evicted from Oromia</a> in retaliation are also still displaced. <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/iom-ethiopia-gedeo-guji-return-analysis-report-i-august-2018">Ethnic Gedeos</a> who were evicted from Oromia’s Guji areas are now living in <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/07/14/ethiopia-un-releases-15m-aid-package-towards-escalating-humanitarian-crisis//">appalling conditions</a> in schools, closed factories and temporary camps.
Hundreds of innocent Ethiopians have died in the southern cities of Awassa and Sodo because of <a href="https://ethsat.com/2018/06/ethiopia-over-200-killed-in-ethnic-violence-southern-ethiopia/">ethic violence</a>.
And in the past two weeks alone, dozens of Ethiopians from the Gamo, Ghuraghe, and Dorze groups around the capital city, Addis Ababa, were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-violence/at-least-23-die-in-weekend-of-ethiopia-ethnic-violence-idUSKCN1LX0VK?il=0">targeted and killed</a> by unidentified assailants.
A rally that was organised in Addis Ababa to protest the killings was violently dispersed by police. The media reported that some residents were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-violence/ethiopian-protesters-killed-for-singing-anti-government-songs-u-n-idUSKBN1FC2GC">killed by government security forces</a>.
To understand the latest events, it’s necessary to look to Ethiopia’s history. Ethnic tensions have simmered – and often boiled over – for decades. Some of the earliest signs can be traced back to 1991, when former president Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam’s regime was removed from power.
<h2>Causes of the violence</h2>
When his military regime was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/05/28/world/ethiopian-rebels-storm-the-capital-and-seize-control.html">overthrown in 1991</a>, a hastily organised coalition seized power in the capital.
The coalition, known as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, was made up of four ethnic parties: the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organisation, Amhara National Democratic Movement, Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement, and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front.
Soon after the coalition came together, it introduced an ethnic federal system of governance to try and address historic ethnic grievances by giving Ethiopia’s different regions the chance to administer themselves. This federal system allowed regions to organise along tribal lines. It also led to the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/managing-ethiopia-political-crisis-180205113035729.html">rise of ethno-nationalist movements</a>, which eventually weakened Ethiopia’s national unity.
Ethnic intolerance grew and gained momentum, and ethnic violence became a permanent fixture of Ethiopian politics.
Ethnic groups have, over the past few decades of coalition rule, staked claims to territories administered by other tribes. Ethnic Amharas, for instance, have <a href="https://www.opride.com/2018/02/23/amhara-protest-stalwarts-released-government-remains-mum-welkait-issue/">claimed ownership</a> of the Wolqait and Raya territories in northwestern Ethiopia, leading to tensions with the Tigray region, which currently administers these areas. Violence has often erupted over the claim.
Ethiopia’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41278618">Somali and Oromo</a> communities have also seen their fair share of violence over ownership of ancestral and pastoral land.
So, the issues of federal governance, negative ethnicity, and debates over land ownership have been a longstanding thorn in the Ethiopian leadership’s flesh. What remains to be seen is how Abiy’s administration will deal with it. Can the new premier resolve these issues and keep his reforms agenda on course?
<h2>Ahmed’s options</h2>
Despite Ethiopians’ optimism, the simple answer is no. And the reason is this: the ruling coalition is still a conglomeration of four ethno-nationalist parties. Despite Ahmed’s newly adopted reforms, which lean towards the rights of the individual and citizenship politics, the ruling coalition remains fixated on the group-rights agenda. This agenda has always privileged division over unity.
The Oromo Democratic Party, for instance, <a href="https://www.opride.com/2017/07/01/oromia-special-interest-law-owns-addis-ababa/">still advocates a controversial idea</a> known as Oromia’s Special Interest in Addis Ababa.
The organisation is the most powerful party in the ruling coalition today. Its members have made a political and constitutional claim to Addis Ababa because it is an enclave located in the State of Oromia. The city now doubles as the capital of Oromia despite the fact that less than 20% of its residents are ethnic Oromos.
This has led to tensions between ethnic Oromos, who are the minority in Addis, and other ethnic groups like the Amhara, who are the <a href="http://populationof2017.com/population-of-addis-ababa-2017.html">overwhelming majority</a> in the city.
Such <a href="https://www.acleddata.com/2018/04/12/10-hidden-conflicts-in-africa/">ethnic rivalries and conflicts</a> are common in Africa. However, Ethiopia can be singled out for the manner in which these rivalries have played out. The ethnic federal arrangement has given ethnic parties and their politics the legal foundation to flourish.
Unfortunately, when ethnic interests and ethnic politics become the modus operandi of the ruling coalition and opposition elites, the challenges to a country can quickly become insurmountable.
Prime Minister Abiy must now take measures to reduce such conflicts and address ethnic tensions. Creating a framework whereby cultural, religious, and social organisations could utilise the rich social capital at their disposal would be crucial. Moreover, Abiy should not shy away from the possibility of constitutional change. This would allow for the articles that have entrenched ethnic divisions to be amended. Finally, Abiy’s administration’s should focus on building much-needed democratic institutions because a functioning democracy will solve most of Ethiopia’s problems.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103928/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yohannes-gedamu-432503">Yohannes Gedamu</a>, Lecturer of Political Science, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/georgia-gwinnett-college-2416">Georgia Gwinnett College</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ethnic-violence-is-destabilising-ethiopias-reform-gains-103928">original article</a>.

Are ethnic tensions and violence in Ethiopia weakening reform gains?

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; The leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea re-opened crossing points on their shared border for the first time in 20 years on Tuesday, cementing a stunning reconciliation and giving Addis Ababa a direct route to its former foe’s Red Sea ports.
Ethiopian and Eritrean forces stationed along the border will be moved back to camps to ease tensions further, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said.
“We heralded the new year by demolishing the trenches along our border,” Abiy told reporters, referring to the fact that Ethiopian New Year was celebrated on Tuesday.
“As of today, Ethiopia’s defence forces (along the border with Eritrea) will be gathered to camps and ease tension that was often extreme. The same will be done from the Eritrean side.”
The war that broke out in 1998 over the border and other issues killed an estimated 80,000 people before fighting ended in 2000 in a contested peace deal.
Tensions burned on over the position of the frontier &#8211; until Abiy offered to end the military standoff this year as part of a package of reforms that have reshaped the political landscape in the Horn of Africa and beyond.
Thousands of people from both countries watched one border opening ceremony in Zalambessa, an Ethiopian border town that was reduced to rubble soon after hostilities between the neighbours started in 1998.
Soldiers and civilians waving Ethiopian and Eritrean flags lined the road as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki opened the frontier in a ceremony broadcast live on Ethiopian state TV.
“This is the happiest day of my life,” Ruta Haddis, an Eritrean from the town of Senafe just across the frontier, told reporters. “I never thought this would take place in my lifetime.”
The two leaders opened another frontier crossing at Bure, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Meskel said in a tweet.
The Debay Sima &#8211; Bure crossing leads to the port of Assab in Eritrea’s east, while its Massawa port is directly north of the Serha &#8211; Zalambessa connection.
Ethiopia, a rising economic power with 100 million people, had been almost entirely dependent on tiny neighbour Djibouti for access to the Red Sea since 1998.
&nbsp;
ETHIOPIAN NEW YEAR
Pictures posted online by Abiy’s chief of staff showed the leaders talking and walking side by side in Bure &#8211; Abiy in camouflaged military fatigues and Isaias wearing sandals and a safari suit.
Some of the fiercest fighting during the 1998-2000 war took place in the Bure region.
The Eritrean and Ethiopian leaders have moved swiftly to end two decades of hostility since signing a breakthrough agreement in Asmara on July 9 to restore ties.
Eritrea reopened its embassy in Ethiopia in July, Ethiopia reciprocated last week and the two countries have resumed flights.
The two leaders also celebrated Ethiopian New Year together at the border with their troops on Tuesday, Abiy’s Chief of Staff, Fitsum Arega, said.
Ethiopia follows a calendar similar to the ancient Julian one &#8211; which started disappearing from the West in the 16th century &#8211; meaning the country entered its year 2011 on Tuesday.
Reporting by George Obulutsa in Nairobi and Aaron Maasho in Addis Ababa,; Writing by Ingrid Melander, Editing by Andrew Heavens and Ed Osmond

Former rivals Eritrea and Ethiopia reopen border crossing for the first time in 20 years

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yirga-gelaw-woldeyes-408052" rel="author">Yirga Gelaw Woldeyes,</a> Lecturer of Human Rights, Curtin University.
&nbsp;
Abiy Ahmed has made a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/08/abiy-ahmed-upending-ethiopian-politics">raft of radical steps</a> since taking over as Ethiopia’s prime minister in April 2018. He has redressed some of the wrongs committed by his own party, brokered peace with Eritrea and released political prisoners. Abiy has also invited opposition political groups back into the country and <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/ethiopias-torn-orthodox-church-reunites-after-27-years-20180727">overseen the reunification</a> of a splintered Orthodox church.
Abiy’s approach is summed up by his philosophy of <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2018/04/18/ethiopia-a-nation-in-need-of-a-new-story-abiy-ahmed-ethiopiawinet/">medemer</a>, or inclusivity and unity. His reforms have led millions to believe that positive revolutionary change is on its way. But there’s one significant group he has yet to address: the rural majority.
More than 80% of Ethiopians <a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/about.html">live in rural villages</a> beyond the reach of mass media. So far, they have not been included in the ongoing national conversation. Yet, they contribute significantly to the economy by providing <a href="http://www.fao.org/ethiopia/fao-in-ethiopia/ethiopia-at-a-glance/en/">85% of all employment and 95% of agriculture outputs</a>.
Past governments exacted revenue from rural people but <a href="http://ethiopianbusinessreview.net/index.php/commentary/item/164-the-peasant-the-state-a-comprehensive-rural-policy-analysis">ignored their voices</a> in policy making. During Haile Sellasie’s rule, rural people had to pay a share of their produce to their chiefs in order to keep their land. Mengistu Haile Mariam’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2017/12/07/why-ethiopians-are-nostalgic-for-a-murderous-marxist-regime">marxist regime </a> introduced land reform based on its communist ideology but required rural people to fund and fight its wars.
The current government came to power with the promise of ensuring food security but it <a href="https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com.au/&amp;httpsredir=1&amp;article=1043&amp;context=africancenter_icad_archive">politicised ethnic identity</a> and is currently focusing on rapid economic growth through the commercialisation of agriculture.
Consistently, Ethiopian governments created their own policies without listening to rural people first. But there can never truly be any hope for the country’s future if the forgotten majority continue to be ignored.
<h2>The reality for rural people</h2>
Since the 2000s, Ethiopia has been praised for <a href="http://cnbc.africa/news/east-africa/2015/09/15/ethiopia-fastest-growing-country/">fast economic growth</a>. The government celebrates small holding farmers as the <a href="https://news.ilri.org/2015/10/30/whats-driving-ethiopias-fast-development-millions-of-smallholder-farmers-of-course/">drivers of its success</a>. But, so far, economic growth has not translated into a better life for the rural poor.
In 2015, some 18 million (20% of the total population) were affected by drought, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/23/ethiopia-struggles-with-worst-drought-for-50-years-leaving-18-mi/">the worst in 50 years</a>. This year alone, 7.4 million, <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/humanitarian-action-children-2018-ethiopia">mostly children and women, are in need of help</a>.
In addition to natural disasters, rural people are victims of an ill-conceived land policy. Land is controlled by the government. Farmers don’t own their land. They’re simply granted the right to use it. Land scarcity is a major problem. More than 60% of rural households survive on <a href="https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/content/experts-claim-rural-landlessness-exacerbating-poverty-food-insecurity">less than one hectare of land</a>. A lack of access has led to young people being <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14001727">uprooted from rural areas</a>.
Yet, the government leases large tracts of land to private investors to spur economic growth. From late 1990s to 2008, almost 3.5 million hectares of land was rented to investors at <a href="https://theredddesk.org/sites/default/files/resources/pdf/Ethiopia_Rahmato_FSS_2011.pdf">very low prices for a period of up to 99 years</a>. The government <a href="http://images.mofcom.gov.cn/et/201509/20150922215452876.pdf">advertises</a> that 11.5 million hectares of land is currently prepared for private investment. Investors mainly focus on producing flowers, biofuel, and other export products. These in turn <a href="https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1029&amp;context=wh2ojournal">cause water shortages and environmental problems</a>.
In a country of 103 million, where the survival of 80% of the people depend on <a href="http://media.accademiaxl.it/memorie/S5-VXXXIX-P2-2015/GedamuGebre273-289.pdf">subsistence agriculture</a>, the priority given to private investors raises significant concerns.
Urban Ethiopians view foreign investors as a sign of progress. They see this land-grabbing as a sign of development. Yet the commercialisation of agriculture is being used to <a href="https://ig.ft.com/sites/land-rush-investment/ethiopia/">concentrate wealth</a> in the hands of a small ruling class. It has increased <a href="https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/292412/rr-life-time-food-price-volatility-ethiopia-year-1-140414-en.pdf?sequence=25&amp;isAllowed=y">food prices</a> for the poor.
In Gambella, 70,000 people have been <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2012/01/16/ethiopia-forced-relocations-bring-hunger-hardship">moved to new areas</a>. Many more are believed to have been moved off their ancestral lands to make way for the country’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/14/ethiopia-villagisation-violence-land-grab">vision of becoming the world’s leading sugar producer</a>.
Abiy has yet to address any of these issues. So far, he has shown no signs that he intends to change the government’s land policy.
<h2>Colonial mindset</h2>
One of the major hurdles facing the forgotten rural majority is the colonial mindset of many urbanites and people in power. The exclusion of rural people from the affairs of the state is not new. But it has intensified since 1974.
Traditionally, rural Ethiopians had institutions that influenced the power of their leaders. Leaders needed to fulfil and be accountable to tradition. They were respected more than feared.
But since the beginning of 20th Century, Ethiopian leaders sought to gain global legitimacy by bringing western institutions and knowledge to the country, excluding traditional knowledge and Ethiopian languages from higher education. Students learnt western history, culture and philosophy in English, and started to internalise the western gaze that <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0014/001473/147348E.pdf">saw Ethiopian traditional knowledge and institutions as primitive</a>.
This colonial mindset, that has internalised western knowledge as progressive and Ethiopian knowledge as backward, is one of the major factors excluding rural people from reform and political debate. Rural people are seen as antithetical to progress, or simply ignorant of how things can be done better. For example, ten years ago the World Bank blamed Ethiopia’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-food-ethiopia/world-bank-urges-ethiopia-to-update-farming-systems-idUSL1868602920080618">“backward farming system”</a> for acute food shortages.
Across the country, rural people understand land not as a natural resource that can be converted into cash, but as a source of life, spirituality, culture, and identity. Any cursory study of land-grabbing in Ethiopia shows that government policy has resulted in ongoing violence against the livelihood and culture of rural people. Rural people still feed the majority of the population; protecting them protects the rest.
Everything Ethiopians are proud of today, from their ancient culture to their independence from colonialism, came from the culture of rural life. It is this rich cultural knowledge that should be drawn upon, rather than continually looking out to the west.
Despite all of Abiy’s inspirational reforms, there can be no true progress for Ethiopia without listening to the rural majority.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102204/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yirga-gelaw-woldeyes-408052">Yirga Gelaw Woldeyes</a>, Lecturer of Human Rights, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873">Curtin University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-abiy-wont-succeed-unless-he-listens-to-ethiopias-majority-its-rural-people-102204">original article</a>.

Why Ethiopia’s prime minister needs to listen to people living in rural areas

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia’s prime minister said on Saturday an election due for 2020 would be free and should not be delayed by his sweeping reforms to the African nation’s politics, economy and diplomacy.
Abiy Ahmed, who took office in April, has pledged to open up the state-dominated economy and has taken steps to end decades of hostility with neighbouring Eritrea — moves that could reshape the country and the broader Horn of Africa region.
He said on Saturday at his first news conference that the World Bank would provide $1 billion in budget support in the next few months, explaining that “this is due to the reforms taking place in the country.”
Since winning office, Abiy has loosened the grip of a state that had ruled with an iron fist. He has ordered the release of political prisoners and decried abuses by security forces as state terrorism.
“My dream and ambition is for democratic elections to be held,” the 42-year-old prime minister said.
“Otherwise, what legitimacy can any official have without the mandate earned through elections?”
Abiy said elections, due in 2020, should not be delayed until the reforms he has announced are completed.
He said the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition’s focus next year would be on “preparations for free elections to be held.”
Abiy has promised to give more room to opponents in a nation of 100 million where no opposition lawmakers sit in parliament.
He has lifted a state of emergency put in place after his predecessor resigned in February following three years of protests in which hundreds were killed by security forces.
The World Bank and other donors suspended budgetary help following a vote in 2005 that was disputed by the opposition and accompanied by violence that killed 200 people.
The ruling coalition, in power since ousting dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991, has long been accused by the opposition of crushing dissent, a charge it had denied, though Abiy has spoken frankly since taking office about past abuses.
Some political dissidents have voiced scepticism about change as long as Abiy’s EPRDF remains in power.
Protests that led to the resignation of his predecessor were partly driven by Ethiopia’s disillusioned youth, suffering high levels of unemployment. Although it has been one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, Ethiopia’s export sector &#8211; mainly garment manufacturing and farming &#8211; has struggled, meaning the economy is not generating enough dollars to pay for imports.
The dollar shortages have been exacerbated by the government’s massive investment in infrastructure over the last decade.
The government last month called on Ethiopians to bring their hard currency into banks to ease the shortage, a move which closed the once yawning gap between the official and black market exchange rates for the birr currency. [L8N1UG5JH]
On Saturday, Abiy said “economic sabotage” had taken place and adding that “large groups” were still hoarding foreign exchange, without giving details.
Though the government has pledged to partially privatise several key state-owned companies, including the telecoms monopoly, the form liberalisation will take and the speed with which it will be carried out have not been announced.
Reporting by Aaron Maasho; Writing by Maggie Fick; Editing by Edmund Blair and Ros Russell

Ethiopia’s prime minister says 2020 vote will be free, what you need to know…

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; Authorities have shut off Internet access in eastern Ethiopia amid an outbreak of violence there, residents said on Wednesday, a sign of the challenges facing reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in containing ethnic tensions in parts of the country.
The residents, one speaking from Oromia region and the other from the city of Harar, said the connection had been down for three days — the first time access has been cut off since parliament lifted a state of emergency in June.
Ethiopian government spokesman Ahmed Shide did not immediately respond to a phone call and a text message seeking comment on the shutdown, which was reported on Tuesday by digital rights group Access Now.
Violence broke out on Saturday in Jijiga, the capital of Ethiopia’s Somali region, with mobs looting properties owned by ethnic minorities. Security officials shot dead four people, a witness told Reuters.
The government said unrest had been stoked by regional officials.
The residents in Oromia and Harar said they were concerned the violence could spread from the Somali region into other parts of eastern Ethiopia, in part because tit-for-tat ethnic reprisals were one part of the unrest that roiled the country for three years until the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in February.
The government had imposed emergency rule in February, a day after Hailemariam’s resignation after three years of street protests and violent unrest.
Since replacing Desalegn in April, Abiy has turned politics and the economy on its head in the country of 100 million people but continuing ethnic violence poses a challenge to his reform drive.
Nearly 1 million Ethiopians are currently displaced from their homes due to ethnic violence in the Somali and Oromia regions and elsewhere, according to the United Nations.
The government’s move to shut down the Internet amid the latest violence over the weekend suggests a continuation of a knee-jerk reaction to unrest in recent years.
Abiy, a 41-year-old former army officer, has pledged greater freedoms. In the four months since he took office, the government has released political prisoners and lifted a ban on opposition groups.
During the protests before Abiy took office, the government frequently switched off the Internet, sometimes for several months at a time, in Oromia, a large region that surrounds the capital Addis Ababa and extends east all the way to the Somali region.
Halting the ability of young people to organise demonstrations or strikes online or on social media, using smartphones, was a strategy used to contain protests.
Ethiopia, a country of 100 million people, is one of the few countries in the world that still has a state telecoms monopoly, which makes shutting off the internet more simple than if there were multiple telecoms providers.
Reporting by Maggie Fick; Additional reporting by Omar Mohammed; Editing by George Obulutsa, Mark Trevelyan, Richard Balmforth

Why authorities in eastern Ethiopia have shut off access to the internet

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia must pursue multiparty democracy, the prime minister’s chief of staff said on Sunday in what could be the latest in a series of momentous changes sweeping the country.
The country allows competing parties but all parliamentary seats are held by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, which has maintained tight control in the country of 100 million people since it fought its way to power in 1991.
The ruling coalition has also presided over an economy that has grown faster than any other in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade.
Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April and since then the government has instituted reforms including releasing political prisoners, diluting state control of the economy and making peace with northern neighbour Eritrea.
The government this month lifted a ban on opposition groups that were considered terrorist groups. Any further steps to strengthen the country’s democracy would likely make elections due in 2020 more competitive. [L8N1UG1ZZ].
Abiy was meeting national and regional parties on Sunday and his chief of staff, Fitsum Arega, said in a tweet:
“PM Abiy concluded: Given our current politics, there is no option except pursuing a multiparty democracy supported by strong institutions that respect human rights and rule of law.”
He said the parties appreciated Abiy’s political reforms and also wanted changes to electoral laws.
The coalition swept the 2015 vote but the opposition was weakened by restrictive laws and what human rights group described as repression. Security forces killed hundreds of people in three years of unrest since then.
The opposition said it was cheated of victory in an election in 2005, after which 193 protesters and seven policeman were killed in riots.
Writing by Omar Mohammed; Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg

Why Ethiopia’s prime minister is suggesting a multiparty democracy

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) &#8211; Eritrea’s president will make a historic visit to Ethiopia this weekend, cementing a stunning rapprochement with his giant neighbour after a generation of mutual hate and mistrust.
Isaias Afwerki will arrive in Ethiopia on Saturday, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Meskel said on Friday, after the neighbours declared on Monday that their “state of war” was over.
The rapid changes come after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a peace initiative last month. He visited Eritrea’s capital last weekend and signed a pact with Isaias on resuming ties, a move that ended a near 20-year military standoff after a border war.
“President Isaias Afwerki will lead a delegation and pay an official visit to Ethiopia tomorrow, 14th July,” Yemane tweeted.
“The visit will cement further/add momentum to the joint march for peace and cooperation set in motion by both leaders.”
The Horn of Africa neighbours have agreed to open embassies, develop ports and resume flights, in concrete signs of rapprochement after two decades of hostility since war erupted over their disputed border in 1998.
Abiy’s chief of staff tweeted the visit will last three days.
The reconciliation could transform politics and security in the volatile Horn region, which hundreds of thousands of young people have fled in search of safety and opportunities in Europe.
Under the new reformist prime minister, Ethiopia is opening up to the outside world after decades of security-obsessed relative isolation.
Since he took office in April, Abiy has announced plans to partially open up the economy, including attracting foreign capital into the state-run telecoms company and national airline. The country, with a population of 100 million people, has seen rapid economic growth over the past decade.
Reporting by Aaaron Maasho; Writing by Maggie Fick; Editing by Janet Lawrence

What you need to know about the president of Eritrea’s upcoming historic visit to Ethiopia

NAIROBI (Reuters) &#8211; Ethiopia needs $7.5 billion to finish infrastructure projects such as a massive dam and roads that the government hopes will drive industrialisation, the new prime minister said on Friday.
Speaking to parliament before its vote on the 2018/19 budget, Abiy Ahmed said the government needed to be more efficient and prudent in its spending of public funds. He said many state-owned enterprises were heavily indebted and export earnings were a third of the $10 billion annual target.
Abiy took office in April and has pledged sweeping political and economic reforms.
Writing by Maggie Fick; Editing by Duncan Miriri and Alison Williams

In order to complete infrastructure projects, Ethiopia needs $7.5 billion

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mohammed-girma-480174">Mohammed Girma</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
At least two people died and 156 were wounded in a <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/06/police-officials-arrested-ethiopia-grenade-attack-180624133728775.html">grenade attack</a> at a political rally in Addis Ababa addressed by reformist Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Abiy was a surprise guest on the day and, moments after sitting down once he’d made his speech, there was an explosion metres away. He was not hurt, but the rally’s organisers have claimed he was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/world/africa/ethiopia-explosion-abiy.html">the main target</a>.
The Conversation Africa spoke to Ethiopian scholar Mohammed Girma to analyse the impact of the attack.
Was this an unprecedented moment in Ethiopia’s history?
The attempted assassination on a national leader isn’t entirely new to Ethiopia. There was, at least, one such attempt in 1976 targeting <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=vCHtAAAAMAAJ&amp;q=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&amp;dq=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwjDsK2ewu7bAhVLZlAKHTOkA_wQ6AEIKzAA">Mengistu Hailemariam</a>, a former leader who now lives in Zimbabwe as a fugitive. He survived with slight injuries.
That attack was interpreted by many as the incident that triggered horrendous political violence known as <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5jcsAQAAMAAJ&amp;q=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&amp;dq=Assassination+attempt+on+Megistu+Hailemariam&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwjDsK2ewu7bAhVLZlAKHTOkA_wQ6AEIOzAD">“Red Terror”</a>, which <a href="https://study.com/academy/lesson/red-terror-in-ethiopia.html">left thousands</a> of young people dead.
But the scale and the audacity of this attack is unprecedented. It appears that those who planned it couldn’t deliver on the scale they might have wanted. Had they succeeded, the human cost and its political implications would have been immense.
What is the current political context?
The ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front which has been in power <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-strong-opposition-is-the-only-solution-to-dislodging-ethiopias-ruling-coalition-89698">for nearly 30 years</a>, is decaying. It lacks the political will to introduce fundamental <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/11/ethiopia-is-falling-apart/">reforms</a> which would address issues like endemic corruption, the incarceration of journalists and political opponents and widespread economic marginalisation.
These concerns precipitated protests from various segments of society and forced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/15/ethiopia-prime-minister-hailemariam-desalegn-resigns-after-mass-protests">former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign</a>.
Abiy emerged from within the ruling <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-survival-ruling-eprdf-180528082306152.html">party</a> amid this disarray. His message was markedly different. He spoke the language of the people and tapped into society’s aspirations and fears. While it was expected that he’d be a safe pair of hands for ordinary people as well as the ruling elites, nobody expected him to be as direct and decisive as he has turned out to be in his reform efforts.
These have met with resistance, particularly from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which is the dominant wing of the ruling coalition. It’s started to act as an <a href="https://www.africaintelligence.com/ion/corridors-of-power/2018/06/15/the-tplf-gives-abiy-ahmed-ali-a-rocky-political-ride,108313827-bre">opposition from within</a> to Abiy’s work.
The rally at which the attack occurred was called to disentangle Abiy from the establishment and give him a unambiguous mandate to run the country.
People are enchanted with his message of “medemer”, or togetherness, as opposed to ethnic compartmentalisation. They support his systematic and nonviolent removal of corrupt leaders who thrived on spreading fear and using violence to cling to power.
The Prime Minister immediately laid blame on anti-peace forces. Who is he referring to and what is their agenda?
It’s not entirely clear who he had in mind. There are all sorts of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c10e0ae8-752e-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601">theories swirling around</a>. It’s not only unfruitful, but also dangerous, to point fingers at this or that entity. It would be wise to wait until justice runs its course.
However, one can say with some level of justification that whoever made this attempt must have felt threatened by Abiy’s popularity, message and reform efforts. Ethiopians are accustomed to fearing their leaders. But Abiy is loved.
Instead of deploying the usual tactics of violence, he has used a message of love and togetherness. As a result, he has garnered support across ethnic, religious and ideological boundaries. Even in the aftermath of the explosions, the message coming out of his office was one of <a href="https://twitter.com/fitsumaregaa/status/1010400524460613633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.opride.com%2F2018%2F06%2F23%2Flive-blog-mass-rally-in-support-of-ethiopias-new-pm-abiy-ahmed-reforms%2F">love, healing and solidarity</a>, not revenge.
Regardless of who the “anti-peace forces” might be, their agenda seems to be to subvert the new rhetoric and render Ethiopia ungovernable.
What does this attack say about Abiy’s authority and the country’s stability?
The implications can be looked at in two different ways. On the one hand, overwhelming support for what he’s doing lessens the chances of the “anti-peace” forces using the people to instigate a major conflict. On the other, the attack shows that such anti-peace elements still carry enough venom to disrupt Abiy’s narrative and hamper the progress of his reform.
What happens next?
Under Abiy’s leadership Ethiopia has taken a few steps forward. He has started the right conversation, injected hope and managed to change the national mood. He has made some <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2018/05/27/ethiopia-pm-hints-of-visa-free-entry-for-all-africans/">clever diplomatic moves</a>, and he is not afraid to make bold and even edgy decisions.
But the country isn’t out of woods yet. Social cohesion and economy are his biggest challenges.
The ramifications of the latest violence are still unknown. The investigation might open a can of worms and, if poorly handled, might deepen suspicion between dissenting groups. The support and the understanding of the masses are of critical importance for Abiy to steer the country out of turbulence.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98839/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />There is also good reason to question whether or not he is producing supporters who would see him as a cult hero rather than someone who can be criticised, questioned and held to account when he crosses the line.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mohammed-girma-480174">Mohammed Girma</a>, Visiting Lecturer at London School of Theology and Research associate, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explosion-at-rally-proves-that-ethiopia-isnt-out-of-the-woods-yet-98839">original article</a>.

This is what the explosion at a political rally in Addis Ababa tells us about Ethiopia

Both Zimbabwe&#8217;s President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are safe after explosions rocked rallies where they were present in their respective countries.
Mnangagwa escaped unhurt after an explosion rocked a stadium where he was addressing a political rally on Saturday, a month before the country is due to hold its presidential elections.
However, vice presidents Constantino Chiwenga and Kembo Mohadi and a minister sustained minor injuries following the blast at the White City Stadium in the second city of Bulawayo.
Ahmed escaped a grenade attack on Saturday at a rally in the capital that killed one person and left scores wounded, officials and witnesses said.
The attack was launched by an unidentified assailant moments after 41-year-old prime minister, a former soldier who took office in April, finished his speech to tens of thousands of people gathered in the centre of Addis Ababa.
A witness saw Abiy whisked away by guards. Another witness told Reuters the assailant with the grenade had been wrestled to the ground by police before it exploded.
Health Minister Amir Aman said one person was killed and 154 were wounded, with 10 of them in critical condition.
Zimbabwe 
“There has been an incident at Bulawayo where the president was addressing a rally. This is now a police issue but the president is safe at Bulawayo State House,” spokesman George Charamba told Reuters.
“We are still to get information on what exactly happened as we understand that some people could have been injured as this happened in the VIP tent.”
National Police spokeswoman Charity Charamba said she did not have details on the incident.
Several security personnel were also injured, the state-owned Herald newspaper said.
Footage from Zimbabwe state television showed the explosion took place near Mnangagwa as he waved to supporters. He was later seen in pictures circulating on social media visiting Chiwenga’s wife in hospital.
Mnangagwa was speaking at his first rally in Bulawayo, an opposition stronghold where the ruling ZANU-PF has not won in national elections since 2000.
Zimbabwe holds its presidential election on July 30, with 75-year-old Mnangagwa and 40-year-old Nelson Chamisa, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, the main contenders.
The vote next month is the first since Robert Mugabe’s downfall after a de facto military coup last November.
Unlike previous elections which were marred by violence, mostly against opposition members by ZANU-PF supporters, the run up to this year’s vote has been relatively peaceful.
Mnangagwa has promised a free and fair vote and if it is endorsed by international observers who are in the country for the first time since 2000, it could help Zimbabwe secure funding from international institutions for the first time in two decades.
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<div class="container_2dHIN dp-slot-inline_eUPBt">Mnangagwa said last August, then the vice president, that he had been poisoned at a rally outside Bulawayo and spent weeks receiving medical treatment in neighbouring South Africa.</div>
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Zimbabwe last had blasts at rallies in the 1980s, which had targeted Mugabe.
Ethiopia 

Addressing the nation on television shortly after the blast and still wearing a green t-shirt he was handed at the rally, Abiy said the attack was an “attempt by forces who do not want to see Ethiopia united.”
Abiy had promised the crowd in his speech in Addis Ababa’s Meskel Square that he would bring more transparency to government and reconciliation to a nation of 100 million people that has been torn by protests since 2015.
Eritrea, which has long been at loggerheads with Ethiopia over a border row that Abiy has sought to resolve, condemned the incident, as did the European Union and the United States.
Abiy took office after his predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, resigned in February following protests in which hundreds of people were killed between 2015 and 2017.
Emergency law was temporarily imposed to quell the unrest and was lifted this month.
Despite boasting one of Africa’s fastest growing economies, opponents say the benefits have not been shared fairly between ethnic groups and regions in the country, which has been run by the same ruling coalition for more than quarter of a century.
Abiy has travelled around the nation, promising to address grievances and address political and civil rights.
After Saturday’s blast, the prime minister’s chief of staff wrote on Twitter: “Some whose heart is filled with hate attempted a grenade attack.”
“All the casualties are martyrs of love &amp; peace. HE PM sends his condolences to the victims. The perpetrators will be brought to justice,” Fitsum Arega wrote.
The U.S. embassy in Addis Ababa said: “Violence has no place as Ethiopia pursues meaningful political and economic reforms.”
<h3>PEACE INITIATIVE</h3>
Rally organiser Seyoum Teshome told Reuters he saw five people injured in the blast. “It was a grenade. Someone tried to hurl it to the stage where the prime minister was,” Seyoum said.
As well as promising economic reforms, Abiy stunned Ethiopians this month by saying he was ready to fully implement a peace deal with Eritrea that was signed in 2000 after a two-year war. For years, Ethiopia refused to implement the deal, saying it wanted more talks.
The stalemate led to a military build up and sporadic clashes on the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which seceded from Ethiopia in 1991 after a long war of independence.
Under the 2000 peace deal, Ethiopia is required to cede the border town of Badme to Eritrea. But war veterans in Badme and ethnic Tigrayans along the border oppose the peace initiative, with some town residents saying they will not leave the town.
Eritrea’s ambassador to Japan, Estifanos Afeworki, wrote on Twitter that his nation “strongly condemns the attempt to incite violence” in Addis Ababa, calling the rally a “demonstration for peace”.
Ethiopia’s ruling EPRDF is made up of parties representing the country’s four major ethnic groups. Abiy hails from the Oromo ethnic group, making up roughly a third of the population.
Oromos, along with the Amhara ethnic group, led street demonstrations against the government since 2015 that began as protests against a development plan around the capital and which opponents said the state was using to grab land. Protests broadened to cover other political and economic demands.
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In another of Abiy’s major policy shifts, the prime minister has said Ethiopia would open its state-run telecoms monopoly and state-owned Ethiopian Airlines to private domestic and foreign investment, both moves would loosen the state’s grip.

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