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<p>Many African countries, while facing fiscal challenges, were forced to increase government expenditure to support their economies amid COVID-19. With rising debt and decreased revenue, many sank into recession. Joining CNBC Africa to provide an outlook on the trends for these economies in 2021 is Daniel Kavishe, Economist for Sub-Saharan Africa at Rand Merchant Bank.</p>


RMB on Africa’s economic outlook for 2021

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<p>Various African artists, community activists, academics, business leaders and African youth uniting under the African Union have come together and formed a coalition to end violence and conflicts to promote peace across Africa. CNBC Africa spoke with Emmanuel Jal, Spokesperson, #MyPledgeforPeace for more.</p>


Emmanuel Jal on the economic impact of silencing guns in Africa

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<p>With a sovereign debt crisis looming in many African countries, including South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa has pleaded for a global response to prevent a debt crisis in the continent. The President, who is also the Chair of the African Union, has urged private creditors to provide much needed debt relief, so that growth is not stifled in these economies. Joining CNBC Africa for more is Charles Robertson, Global Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital and Roy Mutooni, Analyst at ABSA Asset Management.</p>


How to prevent a looming debt crisis in Africa

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<p>African Union sanctions for unpaid dues, desert locusts wreaking havoc on agriculture and a promising new deal on State allocation meant to enhance local trade; these are the stories making news in South Sudan. CNBC Africa spoke to analyst, Akol Dok for more.</p>


South Sudan leaders reach key deal on control of states

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<p>Members of the African Union had set July 1 as the day to operationalize the African Free Trade Area Agreement but with COVID-19 pandemic affecting all member countries, this has been pushed back to a yet to be named date though some experts believe the AfCFTA implementation should go ahead. So could this be an opportunity for improved Intra Africa trade? Hippolyte Fofack, Chief Economist Afreximbank joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Afreximbank on COVID-19 opportunities & challenges for intra-Africa trade

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<p>This time last year Africa was celebrating the milestone that free trade on the continent would soon be a reality. Prior to Covid-19, the free trade Africa deal was due to be implemented on the 1st of July. Africa Day this year is, however, less joyful as the continent grapples with the prospect of deep recession and in some parts, depression with the coronavirus health crisis fast muted into an economic and financial one. Joining CNBC Africa to discuss Africa’s prospects in 2020 is Alexander Forbes Chief Economist, Isaah Mhlanga and Head of Strategic Slients, Lesiba Mothata.</p>


How Covid-19 is shaping Africa’s prospects

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<p>The fight against COVID-19 must include a climate change strategy that rebuilds stronger, inclusive economies geared for low carbon growth. That’s according to Former Nigerian Finance Minister and MD of the World Bank Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala who was recently appointed to the WHO’s Covid19 special envoy. This follows her appointment to the African Union’s COVID-19 envoy earlier this month. Dr Okonjo Iweala joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on why climate change should be part of Africa’s COVID-19 strategy

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<p>South Africa&#8217;s President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as AU chair, recently chaired a virtual summit of the continental block in light of developments around COVID-19.</p>


How the AU plans to cushion Africa from COVID-19 crisis

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<p>Two weeks ago the African Union appointed a special envoy tasked with attracting social and economic support for Africa’s fight against the coronavirus. One of those appointees was former Rwanda Finance Minister and President of the African Development Bank, Donald Kaberuka, who joins CNBC Africa for an update of what the envoy has been able to achieve.</p>


Donald Kaberuka: AU is looking for $100bn to fight COVID-19 on the continent

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<p>The Africa Risk Capacity is a specialised Agency of the African Union and they are currently undertaking an urgent exercise to model the potential impact of the coronavirus on Africa to inform and guide member states. This modelling according to the ARC will look into the likely short-term and medium-term effects of the pandemic on the continent as well as how to mitigate these shocks. Mohamed Beavogui, Director General and United Nations Assistant Secretary General, African Risk Capacity joins CNBC Africa for more insight into this.</p>


COVID-19: How African countries can insure against outbreaks

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In 2013, the African Union (AU) embarked on a 50-year blueprint for transforming the continent called Agenda 2063. The fact that the average age of the continent is just 19 years explains the need for the youth to be aware and partake in in the implementation of this ambitious program if it is to succeed. Ndeu Naukushu, CEO of Africa Productivity Specialists and champion of the Agenda 2063 joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


The role of Africa’s youth in realising Agenda 2063

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The Commissioner for Trade and Industry at the African Union, Albert Muchanga, says the union is ready for the commencement of trade under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement on the first of July this year. While speaking to CNBC Africa’s Godfrey Mutizwa, Muchanga added that the union is almost done with its work on the rules of origin. They discussed this and more on the sidelines of the 33rd African Union Summit.</p>


AU Summit 2020: AFCFTA: How prepared is Africa for July 1st?


<p>  By Godfrey Mutizwa, CNBC Africa anchor </p>



<p>Africa, home to the world’s largest
deposits of precious and industrial metals, needs new mining models to
equitably share its mineral wealth while industrialising.</p>



<p>Paul Jourdan of Mining Equipment
Manufacturers of South Africa and a policy analyst, said current models left
Africa with little to show for its resources, citing the example of the
Democratic Republic of the Congo which he said realised about three percent of
the value generated by its mineral exports.</p>



<p>&#8220;The focus should be on the minerals
that Africa requires for its development and not what the global economy
needs,’’ Jourdan told the African Union (AU)’s inaugural African Forum Mining
in Accra, Ghana. &#8220;The state’s obligation is to get the optimal value of the
assets on behalf of the people.’’</p>



<p>The forum is part of the AU’s strategy
to help African countries get more out of their mineral wealth through
beneficiation, strengthening the capacity of governments to negotiate with
multi-national companies and ensuring communities benefit from those resources
as outlined its decade-old African Mining Vision (AMV).</p>



<p>Working with the United Nations and pan
African institutions such as the African Development Bank, the AU has focused
on creating key mineral value chains and supporting governments in mining
policy reforms that will enable economic integration and industrialization as
part of its Agenda 2063 and enabling the recently launched African Continental
Free Trade Area (AFCTA).`</p>



<p>&#8220;The AMV seeks to encourage African countries to recognise the massive benefits to be garnered by mining countries if they look beyond the rents they now get from mining companies, and by setting in motion the huge linkages which exist at every level of extraction, to allow for maximisation of benefits,’’ Paul Msoma, Economic Affairs Officer, at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, said at the opening ceremony.</p>



<p>&#8220;It is a call to move beyond mere revenues collected as taxes, which are meager anyway, and move to a situation where whole industries are spawned to service the mining sector, creating jobs for more people all along the value chains, at the same time as issues of environmental protection, gender and youth inclusive development, community equity and artisanal and small-scale mining are taken care of.’’</p>



<p>The AU also seeks to better involve the private sector in its economic development plans like the AFCTA after realising mistakes of the past, said Antonio Pedro, UNECA Central Africa Regional Director. &#8220;It used to be a taboo for the AU to engage the private sector,’’ he said, suggesting earlier collaboration would have helped revolutionise skills development.</p>


Africa needs new models to better share mining benefits

By <span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/emma-elfversson-800607">Emma Elfversson</a>, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/uppsala-university-1826">Uppsala University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/paul-d-williams-439129">Paul D. Williams</a>, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/george-washington-university-1262">George Washington University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sara-lindberg-bromley-880383">Sara Lindberg Bromley</a>, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/uppsala-university-1826">Uppsala University</a></em></span>

<p>In an ever more urbanising world, peacekeepers will <a href="https://cpr.unu.edu/peacekeeping-in-cities-is-the-un-prepared.html">increasingly operate in cities</a>. In a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23802014.2019.1678399">recent article</a>, we analysed how attacks against the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) affected the peacekeepers’ ability to operate in Mogadishu.</p>

<p>Cities host key logistical and political assets and institutions. They are frequently the object of fierce contestation among warring parties. Cities may also <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783030280901">remain divided and insecure</a> long after formal peace agreements are signed, posing significant challenges to peaceful transitions.</p>

<p>Securing strategically important cities and protecting key institutions are thus <a href="https://cic.nyu.edu/publications/UN-Peacekeeping-in-Urban-Environments-The-Legacy-of-UNMIL">crucial tasks</a> for peace operations. However, operating in densely populated urban areas brings significant challenges.</p>

<p>For one, the density of cities makes it more difficult for peacekeepers to distinguish armed fighters from the civilian population. Militants with intimate knowledge of the city’s infrastructure may also counteract <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-review-of-the-red-cross/article/future-war-in-cities-urbanizations-challenge-to-strategic-studies-in-the-21st-century/D1999E08103B58ECB46D25B9F42C049A">peacekeepers’ technological advantage</a>. The city’s symbolic and political importance often makes it a prime target for large-scale attacks which can be difficult for peacekeepers to anticipate and prevent.</p>

<h2>Attacks on urban peacekeepers</h2>

<p>Some peace operations deployed in cities have come under attack by forces opposed to their presence. Such attacks, in turn, affect peacekeepers’ ability to operate and sometimes have led to their withdrawal. In Kigali, Rwanda, the killing of ten Belgian peacekeepers posted to the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/rwanda/Geno15-8-01.htm">UN mission there</a> on 7 April 1994 led the country to withdraw its contingent. </p>

<p>The <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/mission/past/unsom1backgr1.html">United Nations Operation in Somalia</a> was also forced to leave after the United States pulled out its troops. This was after the infamous <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/legacy-black-hawk-down-180971000/">“Black Hawk Down”</a> battle in Mogadishu in October 1993. </p>

<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13533312.2018.1512858">Recent research</a> has shown such responses may be the exception rather than the rule. But attacks on peacekeepers may have other important effects for operational effectiveness.</p>

<p>In our article, we focus on the African mission in Somalia between 2007 and 2009, the mission’s first three years of operations. The <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fighting-for-peace-in-somalia-9780198724544?cc=se&amp;lang=en&amp;">mission</a> was deployed where there was little “peace to keep”. It quickly came under attack from al-Shabaab, the main armed group opposing Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG).</p>

<p>Using data from the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317735882">Peacemakers at Risk (PAR) dataset</a> we analysed patterns of violence involving the peacekeepers. An estimated 50 peacekeepers were killed in direct acts of violence in Mogadishu between 2007 and 2009. This affected AMISOM’s operations in several ways.</p>

<p>First, the insecure conditions in Mogadishu forced it to concentrate on its core military tasks – protecting the TFG and its own troops. Patrolling and civilian engagement were limited, which also reduced the mission’s access to intelligence.</p>

<p>Second, attacks on AMISOM significantly hampered its ability to deploy throughout the city. After securing a few key locations, the mission had to focus on protecting these sites. It was not able to spread out across the city for several years. The concentration to a few key locations was partly the result of delays in the deployment of troops and mission support. However, the fact that many states were <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17531055.2018.1418159">unwilling to contribute</a> was partly due to the violence targeting the mission.</p>

<p>Third, attacks on peacekeepers at times led to heavy-handed responses. This  prolonged fighting where civilians were caught in the crossfire. In turn, such cases increased popular criticism of the mission and led to pressure on the mission to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13523260.2017.1291564">reduce the levels of civilian harm</a>. </p>

<p>Such instances also exemplify the challenges of peacekeeping in cities, as al-Shabaab often attacked from positions in civilian neighbourhoods.</p>

<h2>Lessons from AMISOM’s experiences</h2>

<p>These experiences illustrate the particular challenges that can result when peacekeepers face armed groups that know the urban terrain and rely on asymmetric tactics. These challenges appear to have hampered the implementation of some mandated tasks. These tasks included the wider stabilisation of the city of Mogadishu, promotion of dialogue, and the facilitation of humanitarian assistance. </p>

<p>Instead, the mission had to act defensively, focusing on protecting the contested transitional government and the mission’s supply lines.</p>

<p>These problems were amplified by another factor. For the first three years of its operation, the African mission was under-resourced. Later, it gained more troops and additional external support. It was eventually able to drive al-Shabaab’s main forces <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14430283">out of Mogadishu</a> in 2011.</p>

<p>In summary, our analysis indicates that al-Shabaab was able to exploit its knowledge of Mogadishu and the city’s density to attack mission positions. This restricted the mission’s ability to operate effectively. However, despite these challenges, troop contributing countries did not withdraw. Instead, these countries <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/fighting-for-peace-in-somalia-9780198724544?cc=se&amp;lang=en&amp;am">added more troops</a> to the mission. This enabled AMISOM to prevent the overthrow of the Somali TFG, its core mission.</p>

<p>AMISOM’s experiences suggest that urban peace operations must be given sufficient resources from the outset – that is, personnel, equipment and relevant training. They must also invest in gaining detailed knowledge of the urban environment by engaging local populations. And they must prepare for spoilers to hide among the city’s civilians.</p>

<p>Many of the peacekeeping objectives associated with effective operations – such as extensive patrolling and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022343316682063">civilian engagement</a> – seem difficult to accomplish in urban contexts where peacekeepers themselves become the target of attacks. As peacekeeping continues to become more urban, these issues warrant further attention.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126524/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /></p>

<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/emma-elfversson-800607">Emma Elfversson</a>, Post-doctoral Researcher, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/uppsala-university-1826">Uppsala University</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/paul-d-williams-439129">Paul D. Williams</a>, Professor of International Affairs, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/george-washington-university-1262">George Washington University</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sara-lindberg-bromley-880383">Sara Lindberg Bromley</a>, Post-doctoral researcher, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/uppsala-university-1826">Uppsala University</a></em></span></p>

<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-peacekeeping-what-weve-learnt-from-aus-mission-in-somalia-126524">original article</a>.</p>

What have we learnt from AU’s mission in Somalia on urban peacekeeping?

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<p>On the side lines of the Africa Food Security Leadership Dialogue (AFSLD), CNBC Africa&#8217;s Zwena Bachoo caught up with Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture for the African Union Commission, Josefa Sacko to talk about the organization&#8217;s mandate of supporting and implementing major food security programs in the continent to eliminate hunger and malnutrition.</p>


How the Africa Food Security Leadership Dialogue plans to end hunger across the continent

By <span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danny-bradlow-168878">Danny Bradlow</a>, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/william-n-kring-771072">William N Kring</a>, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/boston-university-898">Boston University</a></em></span>

<p>African Union (AU) leaders will gather in Niger on 7 July for an Extraordinary Summit to discuss the <a href="https://au.int/en/cfta">African Continental Free Trade Area</a>. They will be meeting at a <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/taking-the-pulse-of-africas-economy">critical moment</a> for the continent. Many African countries are experiencing uneven growth and rising debt. All face an uncertain global environment and need the boost that closer and more dynamic continental trade relations could deliver.</p>

<p>In our view the AU leaders should also use their meeting to reinvigorate their efforts to create an <a href="https://au.int/en/treaties/protocol-establishment-african-monetary-fund">African Monetary Fund</a>. This would be used to encourage African states to engage more actively in regional trade by offering them financial support for managing the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/09/sub-saharan-africa-regional-integration-arizala.htm">risks</a> associated with closer regional integration and expanded intra-regional trade.</p>

<p>Over the past 10 years, most regions have developed <a href="https://www.bis.org/review/r120203d.pdf">regional arrangements</a> that can supplement the help that the IMF provides to countries facing balance of payments problems. Ten years ago, US$100 billion was available through these regional funds. Today more than <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dech.12464">US$900 billion</a> is available through these arrangements. Africa is currently the most prominent gap in the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2692622">evolving global financial safety net</a>. </p>

<p>The African leaders signed a treaty to establish this fund in 2014. Unfortunately, progress to set it up has stalled. So far the treaty has been signed, but not ratified, by eleven AU member countries. Fifteen must sign and ratify the statutes for the fund to become operational. Once operational, it will have a capital subscription of up to US $22.64 billion and the ability to provide member countries with loans equivalent to two times their contributions to the Fund’s capital.</p>

<h2>Managing the ripple effects</h2>

<p>The free trade area offers states new growth and employment opportunities. But by increasing economic linkages between African states, it could also increase the risk that economic problems in one country can spill over and have a strongly negative effect on growth, trade, investment and employment in others. For example, both positive and negative developments in the US economy will have a powerful impact on Canada and Mexico.</p>

<hr>
<p>
  <em>
    <strong>
      Read more:
      <a href="http://theconversation.com/more-work-lies-ahead-to-make-africas-new-free-trade-area-succeed-118135">More work lies ahead to make Africa&#8217;s new free trade area succeed</a>
    </strong>
  </em>
</p>
<hr>


<p>To help mitigate these effects, participants in other regional trade arrangements have established regional financial arrangements. These provide financial support to their members to manage balance of payments crises. </p>

<p>The <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2128437">evidence</a> suggests that when states have access to this type of financial support they are less likely to take actions that impede intra-regional trade flows. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2128437">For example</a>, the Latin American Reserve Fund, which provides its members with financial support during balance of payments crises, has helped the recipient countries to maintain their intra-regional trade arrangements. This, in turn, has reduced the risk that the recipient’s problems would cause a crisis in its neighbours.</p>

<p>The failure of an adequate number of states to sign and ratify the African Monetary Fund treaty is an embarrassing challenge to the credibility of the AU’s efforts to promote a more integrated, dynamic, sustainable and equitable African economy.  These efforts have been going on for more than 40 years. Steps along the way have included the former Organisation of African Unity’s Lagos Plan of Action for Economic Development of Africa <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/745620?seq=3#metadata_info_tab_contents">signed in 1980</a> and the Abuja Treaty <a href="http://repository.uneca.org/bitstream/handle/10855/3000/Bib-24781.pdf?sequence=3">signed in 1991</a>.</p>

<p>In a <a href="http://www.bu.edu/gdp/2019/07/03/july-2019-summit-of-the-african-union-jump-starting-the-african-monetary-fund/">policy brief</a> published by the Centre for Human Rights at the University of Pretoria and the Global Development Policy Center at Boston University, we propose three concrete steps to jumpstart the push for the fund. </p>

<h2>Action plan</h2>

<p>First, the creation of the fund must be explicitly linked to the success of the free trade area. The AU leaders can do this by making the case that, just as has happened in other regions, the presence of a regional financial arrangement will support the efforts to boost intra-regional trade in Africa. It will help participating countries mitigate the balance of payments challenges that greater regional integration may cause. </p>

<p>Moreover, the fund, by quickly providing its members with financial support, can offer them more time to negotiate a larger support package with richer institutions, such as the IMF. In this regard, it should be noted that eight of the AU member countries (Cape Verde, Comores, Djibouti, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, and Somalia) will be able to borrow more resources from the AMF than the IMF. </p>

<p>Second, one AU member state should become the champion for the fund. This country would become the first country to sign and ratify the fund treaty. It would lobby other AU member countries to ratify the African Monetary Fund. It would advocate for the AU to reconstitute the steering committee created in the treaty and provide it with adequate resources. Since Cameroon is the designated host country for the AMF’s headquarters, it has an incentive to be a champion for the institution.</p>

<p>Finally, the steering committee should develop a plan for overcoming the substantial resource constraints in the region. This will require balancing the fund’s need for sufficient resources to be credible with the limited ability of some states to contribute. This could be addressed by negotiating an arrangement in which richer regional countries and institutions contribute a disproportionate share of their capital contributions up-front. </p>

<p>These additional contributions will be reimbursed as poorer countries make their capital contributions. It’s important to note that the AMF Board of Governors has the authority to extend the period for a country to make its contribution for up to eight years. To further incentivise small to medium sized member countries to contribute capital, they should be allowed to treat their capital contributions as part of their international reserves. Such an arrangement is not unprecedented and was used effectively in South America. These measures would make an implementation plan more feasible.</p>

<p>Africa has tried valiantly for decades to overcome the substantial challenges hindering the development of robust intra-regional trade. The free trade area agreement is the most recent of these efforts. The credibility of the continent’s leaders and institutions will be influenced by its success or failure. The establishment of the African Monetary Fund would demonstrate the  continent’s determination to promote intra-regional trade and development.</p>

<p><em>Hadiza Gagara Dagah is a co-author of the policy brief, <a href="http://www.bu.edu/gdp/2019/07/03/july-2019-summit-of-the-african-union-jump-starting-the-african-monetary-fund/">Jump-starting the African Monetary Fund  </a>, on which this article is based.</em><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119827/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" /></p>

<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danny-bradlow-168878">Danny Bradlow</a>, SARCHI Professor of International Development Law and African Economic Relations, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/william-n-kring-771072">William N Kring</a>, Assistant Director, Global Development Policy Center, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/boston-university-898">Boston University</a></em></span></p>

<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-african-monetary-fund-is-a-good-idea-and-what-can-be-done-to-get-it-going-119827">original article</a>.</p>

What can be done to get the African Monetary Fund going ?

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<p>Trading on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is scheduled to commence on the first of July 2020 even as the operational phase of the treaty was launched on the sidelines of the African Union (AU) summit in Niamey. Winston Osuchukwu, Co-founder of Trans-Sahara Incorporated joins CNBC Africa for more.</p>


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