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Chapel Hill Denham CEO Bolaji Balogun says peaceful and successful elections are critical to attracting investments into Nigeria. CNBC Africa&#8217;s Kenneth Igbomor spoke to him about this and his thoughts on deepening the country&#8217;s capital markets.

Expert weighs in on what Nigeria’s 2019 election really means for investors

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As the countdown to Nigeria&#8217;s 2019 begins, CNBC Africa&#8217;s Dara Rhodes spoke to Yakubu Gowon, former Head of state of Nigeria about national unity and security concerns.

Why we are not worried about security threats – Yakubu Gowon

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A security alert from the U.S Embassy and consulate in Nigeria has noted that the Islamic State West Africa and Boko Haram have stated plans to disrupt Nigeria&#8217;s upcoming elections by attacking infrastructure and places of gathering such as markets, hotels, and malls. Dennis Amachree, Security Consultant joins CNBC Africa to discuss Nigeria’s security preparations for the 2019 elections.

Nigeria’s election security preparedness ahead of 2019 elections

By Francois Conradie, Head of Research at NKC African Economics



On
Monday, January 14, the Constitutional Council published the final list of
candidates for the presidential election to be held on February 24. 



Only
five contenders are on it, all men: President Macky Sall, running on the
platform of his coalition Benno Bokk Yaakar (BBY); Issa Sall of the Party of
Unity and Coming Together (PUIR); Ousmane Sonko of the Patriots of Senegal for
Work, Ethics and Brotherhood (Pastef); Madické Niang of the Senegalese
Democratic Party (PDS); and Idrissa Seck of Rewmi. 



Notably
absent are Khalifa Sall of the Socialist Party (PS), a former mayor of Dakar
who is serving a jail sentence for illicit enrichment, and Karim Wade, son of
former President Abdoulaye Wade and the official candidate of the PDS. 



Khalifa
Sall (no relation to the president) is ineligible because of his conviction,
and Mr Wade of the same reason, over a conviction for illicit enrichment in
2015. President Sall subsequently pardoned him and he is currently living in
Qatar; he is liable to pay a huge fine should he return to Senegal.



Issa
Sall and Mr Sonko are somewhat marginal figures, although the latter’s campaign
is interesting for its use of social media and suspicions that he is close to
Islamist currents in Senegal. 



Mr
Niang, a former minister, will pull votes from some PDS supporters, but many
others will follow the party leadership’s injunction to boycott. 



Thus
the strongest challenger to the president is Mr Seck. 



The
two men have much in common: they were born two years apart (Mr Seck is the
elder), both joined former President Wade’s PDS, and both served as his prime
minister. 



Mr
Seck split from the PDS in 2006, two years after being sacked as prime
minister. Both ran against the elder Mr Wade when he insisted in the face of
strong popular opposition to run for a third term in 2012. In the first round
of that election Macky Sall got 26.6% of the vote and Mr Seck 7.9%, so Mr Seck
then backed his rival in the second round, when he won.



The
exclusion of Khalifa Sall and Mr Wade had been expected since a change to the
electoral law, which was clearly made in order to keep them specifically out of
the race. 



The
former Dakar mayor at one point looked like a serious challenger to the
president, and we think his trial and conviction had a political angle to them.




With
the list of candidates being what it is, and the BBY coalition having a strong
presence across the country, we see very little chance of President Sall losing
the race.

Why Macky Sall’s strongest challengers won’t run for Senegal’s presidential elections

By Francois Conradie, Head of Research, NKC African Economics﻿



On Sunday, December 23, Congolese vote in a set of elections that have been delayed for two years and have been one of the most important drivers of political risk in the country for the last three. 



Three elections will be held on the same day: legislative, in which voters will elect the lower chamber of Parliament (National Assembly); provincial to pick the governments of the DRC’s 25 provinces (provincial governments elect the upper house of Parliament, the Senate); and presidential. The presidential election is by far the most important.



There are three main contenders in the presidential election: Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary of the Common Front for the Congo (FCC), Martin Fayulu of the Lamuka coalition, and Etienne Tshisekedi of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS). 



The FCC is a new umbrella party created by President Joseph Kabila which includes his People’s Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) and the wider Presidential Majority (MP) of which the PPRD is part. It is a formidable machine, and we see Mr Shadary as the very firm favourite to win. 



Mr Fayulu has the backing of two other serious opposition heavyweights who have been prevented from running for the presidency, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, but no longer has the mandate to represent the wider opposition because of the actions of Mr Tshisekedi, the third man in the race, who reneged on a deal made in Geneva in November to back a single opposition candidate. 



Mr Tshisekedi then made a deal with Vital Kamerhe, who also broke his commitment to the Geneva deal, to run as a team. In the pact Mr Kamerhe and his Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) will call on their supporters to vote for Mr Tshisekedi in the election and in return, should he win, Mr Tshisekedi will name Mr Kamerhe as his prime minister and has pledged to back a candidate from the UNC in the 2023 presidential election.



The split in the opposition, along with the advantages he enjoys as Mr Kabila’s chosen successor, means that we consider Mr Shadary virtually certain to win.But the government has not left the opposition to campaign in peace for all that. 



Opposition sources say at least seven people have lost their lives in violence since the start of the campaign but counting together all the individual claimed numbers gives a higher total. 



Most recently, on Wednesday, December 19, Mr Shadary cancelled a meeting in Tshikapa, in Kasai province, after people protested against his coming; one person was killed when soldiers, who came to support the police, opened fire on protesters. On Sunday, December 16, also in Tshikapa, there was a massive brawl between supporters of Mr Shadary and supporters of Mr Tshisekedi, who is popular in Kasai. One person died there, too, and as many as 80 were injured.The previous weekend, supporters of Mr Fayulu say they came under live fire from police in Lubumbashi; six people died. We expect more trouble at the weekend, and when results are announced.



Amessy polling process will tend to sharpen dissident energies, and there is every reason to expect a spectacular mess. With the best will in the world the election would have been a difficult operation to organise. 



The logistical challenges are considerable given the vast distances and the lack of functioning infrastructure in the DRC. There will be 80,000 polling stations and 20,000 collation centres, in a country twice the size of South Africa but which has only 3,500km of paved roads. And Congolese authorities do not have the best will in the world. 



The Independent National Electoral Centre (Ceni) is widely considered by the opposition and civil society (including the influential Catholic clergy) to be beholden to Mr Kabila, and so to be actively engineering a win for Mr Shadary. 



In the night of Wednesday, December 12, a fire destroyed almost 8,000 voting machines in a Ceni warehouse in Kinshasa. There has been speculation that the incident would result in a delay to the election, but the Ceni’s controversial chairman, Corneille Nangaa, has expressed his commitment to holding the election on time. 



FCC sources have accused Mr Fayulu of being behind the fire; he is opposed to the use of the Korean voting machines, such as those destroyed in the fire, as he(and many others) say they could be used to rig the vote.



Mr Shadary will win the election amid serious doubts about its legitimacy. Supporters of Mr Fayulu and Mr Tshisekedi will protest. Some of those protesting will be killed. Some images of the violence will make international news, but the result of the election will end up being accepted in the DRC, if not in Europe (where Mr Shadary is still under sanctions). 



The system that Mr Kabila has set up will remain in place, with some slight shifts as room is made for new players. Mr Kabila himself will remain a force in Congolese politics, probably as a senator, and may even become president again in 2023: there has been speculation that he plans to work around term limits in the same way as Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, by making room for a one-term puppet successor before coming back to power. 



However,overall risk is lower than it was a year ago, mainly because Mr Kabila is not running again, and we see the risk of war as lower than it was. 



But the authority vacuum resulting from Mr Kabila’s efforts to repress the opposition has resulted in an increase in militia violence in peripheral areas,and this kind of violence should be expected to continue.

DRC’s election outlook: Who has the edge?

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Damola Akindolire, Executive Director, Real Estate &#038; Infrastructure at Alpha Mead Groups joins CNBC Africa to discuss the likely impact of the 2019 elections on property prices in the country.

Nigeria 2019 elections: Impact on property prices

KINSHASA (Reuters) &#8211; Congo’s President Joseph Kabila will not stand in the election scheduled for December, a spokesman said, finally agreeing to obey a two-term limit but picking a hard-core loyalist under European Union sanctions to stand instead.
The announcement on Wednesday by spokesman Lambert Mende that former interior minister Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary would represent Kabila’s ruling coalition in the Dec. 23 vote came just hours before the deadline to register candidates.
“We are all going to align behind (him),” Mende said.
Kabila was due to step down in 2016 at the end of his constitutional mandate, but the election to replace him was repeatedly delayed. That sparked protests in which the security forces killed dozens of people, and stoked militia violence in Democratic Republic of Congo’s volatile east.
Kabila had come under strong pressure from regional allies such as Angola as well as the United States and EU to stand down.
The selection of Ramazani, 57, is, however, a defiant move. He is under EU sanctions for alleged human rights abuses, including deadly crackdowns by security forces on protesters.
Kabila’s choice of a die-hard loyalist suggests that the president, who came to power after his father’s assassination in 2001, intends to remain closely involved in national politics. 
A Ramazani victory could lead to a continuation of Kabila’s policies, including a tough line on the mining sector, where foreign investors hope the government will walk back steep tax hikes approved earlier this year.
Congo is Africa’s top producer of copper and the world’s leading miner of cobalt, which is prized for its use in batteries for electric cars and other electronics.
KABILA PULLS THE STRINGS? 
Kabila will remain at the head of his People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) and has installed loyalists across the federal bureaucracy, including in the courts and in the military.
But the announcement that he will not run again will ease fears in the region and beyond that a Kabila candidacy would drag the country back into the civil wars of the turn of the century in which millions died, mostly from hunger and disease.
“What matters for the moment is that the constitution, whether willingly or not, has been respected,” said Senator Jacques Ndjoli of the opposition MLC party of former vice president and presidential candidate Jean-Pierre Bemba.
“Despite the multiple attempts to circumvent the constitution, President Kabila finally understood that the supreme law applies to everyone.”
The election should now herald Congo’s first democratic transition of power following decades marked by authoritarian rule, coups and deadly conflict.
Ramazani, a former governor of the eastern province of Maniema, served as interior minister from late 2016 until this February, when he was named permanent secretary of the PPRD.
He is a combative defender of Kabila and oversaw repeated crackdowns on protesters and pro-democracy groups as interior minister, especially in the aftermath of Kabila’s refusal to quit power when his mandate expired in December 2016.
In May last year, the EU slapped a travel ban and asset freeze on him for his involvement in “planning, directing or committing acts that constitute serious human rights violations”.
Several opposition candidates, including Bemba and the president of Congo’s largest opposition party, Felix Tshisekedi, have also registered to run.
They fear the goodwill Kabila could earn from not seeking a new term could make it easier for his coalition to cheat and are concerned about voter rolls they say are faulty and electronic voting machines due to be used for the first time.
His supporters dismiss these concerns.
“Today, Kabila has shown that he is the father of democracy in Congo,” Patrick Nkanga, a PPRD official, told Reuters by telephone.
A nationwide opinion poll last month showed opposition candidates collecting a significant majority of the vote with potential candidates from the ruling coalition trailing far behind.
Ramazani did not receive enough votes to be included in the poll’s results.
Reporting by Amedee Mwarabu; Writing by Aaron Ross; Editing by Tim Cocks and Alison Williams
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

DRC’s Kabila will not run in December elections, here’s what you need to know

HARARE (Reuters) &#8211; Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his main opponent, Nelson Chamisa, both said on Tuesday they were confident of victory in an election the previous day which observers deemed too early to call.
Mnangagwa said he was receiving “extremely positive” information on the vote. Chamisa said earlier the opposition Movement for Democratic Change had done “exceedingly well” in the vote.
The 75-year-old Mnangagwa and Chamisa, 40, were the main contenders in Monday’s election, the first since Robert Mugabe was removed in a bloodless coup in November.
Western diplomats and local observer groups said the race, which saw a turnout of 75 percent, was too close to call.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission will announce official results within five days of the election although the outcome should be known well before then.
The winner faces the task of putting Zimbabwe back on track after 37 years under Mugabe which were tainted by corruption, mismanagement and diplomatic isolation that caused a crisis in a country that once had one of Africa’s most promising economies.
“The information from our reprentatives on the ground is extremely positive!” Mnangagwa said on his official Twitter feed.
Chamisa had earlier said he was poised for victory, writing on Twitter: “Awaiting ZEC to perform their constitutional duty to officially announce the people’s election results and we are ready to form the next government.”
A Chamisa victory is unlikely to sit well with military generals who plotted Mugabe’s ouster last November, and there could be a pushback.
Some of the generals who orchestrated the coup are now in government, including Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.
Many Zimbabweans worry that should Mnangagwa lose some in the ruling party may not accept the result, given the huge risk they took in removing Mugabe.
Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF have said they will accept the result.
“THIS IS AFRICA”
“If this guy loses there is no way they will handover power,” said Gift Machekera, pointing at a huge banner of Mnangagwa hanging on a building in Harare.
“Those who have the guns have the power. This is Africa.”
Mnangagwa was viewed as the frontrunner, although the latest opinion polls showed a tight race. There will be a runoff on Sept. 8 if no candidate wins more than half the votes.
Several civil society groups are collating results from 10,985 polling posts in parallel with ZEC but are not allowed to release results before the ZEC. A source at one group said it was too early to call a winner but it was looking “very close”.
In the capital Harare, an MDC stronghold, results posted outside some polling stations seen by Reuters showed Chamisa winning by wide margins, but Mnangagwa was expected to claw back ground in the ruling ZANU-PF’s rural heartland.
Urban results tend to emerge quicker than those from rural outposts, where communication is poor.
In some rural constituencies in the east and south of the country, counting of votes was still ongoing but was expected to end early on Tuesday, some parliamentary candidates said.
A credible vote is essential if Zimbabwe is to exit painful sanctions and secure the donor funding and investment needed to stem chronic cash shortages.
The run-up to Monday’s vote was largely peaceful compared to past elections under Mugabe, where the ruling party and war veterans were accused of violence against opponents.
Dozens of people were killed ahead of a runoff in 2008 between Mugabe and MDC-founder Morgan Tsvangirai, who died of cancer in February.
Mugabe emerged on the eve of the election to announce he would vote for the opposition, surprising Mnangagwa who accused him of striking a deal with Chamisa.
Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe and Joe Brock; Editing by Nick Macfie and Raissa Kasolowsky

Mnangagwa and Chamisa both confident of a victory in Zimbabwe elections, here’s why

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CNBC Africa is joined by Wilf Mbanga, Editor of The Zimbabwean to speak about Zimbabwe’s 2018 elections, the first withought the ousted long-time leader Robert Mugabe.

Zimbabwean voters ready for a possible change

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/13/saudi-arabia-to-invest-billions-in-south-africa-energy.html">Saudi Arabia to power up South Africa&#8217;s energy sector with multi-billion dollar investment</a>
<ul>
<li>Saudi Arabia is to invest $10 billion in South Africa.</li>
<li>The funds will be concentrated on reviving South Africa&#8217;s ailing energy sector.</li>
<li>South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa is on a mission to raise $100 billion in foreign direct investment as he attempts to revive the national economy after years of corruption and ahead of an election next year.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/14080218/105328486-1531487430691gettyimages-997059192.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Bandar Algaloud | Saudi Kingdom Council | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"/>
Saudi Arabia is to pump $10 billion-worth of investment into South Africa, to be focused on its troubled energy sector, according to a South African government spokesperson.
The pledge was made during South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state visit to Saudi Arabia this week, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The majority of the cash will be siphoned into South Africa’s energy sector, “including building refineries, petrochemicals and renewable energy,” said government spokesperson Khusela Diko on Thursday, as reported by Reuters.
Saudi Arabia’s pledge forms a sizeable chunk of Ramaphosa’s mission to generate $100 billion of foreign direct investment. While South Africa is the African continent’s most industrialized country, its once-promising economy has suffered years of sluggish growth thanks to a fall in the price of commodities and endemic governmental corruption.
Ramaphosa needs to stay popular with the South African electorate and continue to buoy “Ramaphoria,” the positive momentum that sent the Johannesburg stock market soaring after he took power following the departure of scandal-ridden former President Jacob Zuma in February of this year.
South Africa’s economic fundamentals have not looked so promising in recent months. The country&#8217;s gross domestic product shrunk by 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of this year, according to Statistics South Africa.
TWEET
Power cuts are rife in the country thanks to its ailing state-owned utility Eksom, which is hungry for investment. According to Ben Payton, head of Africa research at consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, 12 of the country’s 15 coal plants are due to decommissioned in the next 20 years. Eskom “is in no position to finance new facilities,” he told CNBC via e-mail.
But, investment and reform could be a long way off. “Projects in the energy sector are almost invariably delayed due to opposition from NGOs (non-governmental organizations) or trade unions,” said Payton. “South African government agencies are often unreliable partners,” he added, citing the regular failure of municipal governments, who purchase from Eskom, to meet their payments.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, who has made diversifying the kingdom’s economic reliance on oil a cornerstone of his leadership, could view the South Africa pledge strategically.
Crown Prince Mohammed’s vision for Saudi Arabia “relies on a much more assertive foreign policy and more active presence on the world stage” than previously, Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC via e-mail.
“Riyadh will welcome the opportunity to increase its share in Africa’s most sophisticated economy,” said Soltvedt.

Saudi Arabia to power up South Africa’s energy sector with multi-billion dollar investment

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/12/zimbabwe-launches-space-agency-to-modernize-economy.html">Zimbabwe launches a space agency to modernize and revive its economy</a>
<ul>
<li>Zimbabwe has launched a space agency as part of its effort to industrialize and modernize.</li>
<li>The Zimbabwe National Geospatial and Space Agency will contribute to areas including agriculture, disease surveillance and infrastructure management, among others.</li>
<li>The southern African country is preparing for its first election in nearly four decades without former President Robert Mugabe on the ticket.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/14080223/105173405-GettyImages-948122764.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Jekesai Njikizana | AFP | Getty Images"/>
Zimbabwe has launched a space agency as part of a trifecta of new schemes announced this week, aimed at helping the southern African country industrialize and modernize itself.
The Zimbabwe National Geospatial and Space Agency is intended to contribute to the country’s capabilities in agriculture, disease surveillance, infrastructure management, mineral exploration and wildlife conservation, according to state-run newspaper The Herald.
Alongside the space agency, Zimbabwe also inaugurated a National Critical Skills Audit, aimed at identifying skills deficits and surpluses in different sections of the economy, as well as a National Qualifications Framework, which will regulate educational qualifications in the country.
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa said Monday that the initiatives would “serve as a catalyst for our country’s international competitiveness and growth.” He added that the government would set aside 1 percent of its gross domestic product to support research and development.
Mnangagwa’s administration aims to transform Zimbabwe, whose economy has been left in tatters after decades of mismanagement, into a middle-income country by 2030.
The latest plans are intended to “leapfrog our economy in line with local, regional and global trends,” he said.
The country is preparing for an 
historic vote on July 30 
 as it holds its first general election in nearly four decades without former President Robert Mugabe on the ticket.
Mnangagwa 
took power in November 2017 
 after Mugabe was ousted in a coup, and has trumpeted the mantra that Zimbabwe is open for business as he attempts to resurrect the country’s basket case economy.

Zimbabwe launches a space agency to modernize and revive its economy

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/zimbabwe-mugabe-misses-diamond-loss-parliament-hearing.html">Mugabe misses Zimbabwean parliamentary hearing on $15 billion diamond loss</a>
<ul>
<li>Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe did not attend a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday investigating a claim that he made in 2016 that the country had lost $15 billion in diamond revenue.</li>
<li>At the time, Mugabe blamed corruption and foreign involvement for the missing billions, but has since dismissed the figure as &#8220;urban legend.&#8221;</li>
<li>The lawmaker leading the inquiry tweeted that Mugabe has now been summoned to appear on May 28.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/24220230/105228529-GettyImages-141692761.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Jekesai Njikizana | AFP | Getty Images"/>
Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe failed to attend a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday that is investigating his claim that $15 billion of the country&#8217;s diamond wealth is missing.
Temba Mliswa, the Zimbabwean lawmaker leading the inquiry, tweeted later on Wednesday that, &#8220;We&#8217;ve considered that 9 a.m. may be rather early for Mr. Mugabe to appear,&#8221; adding that the investigatory body had written to the former leader asking him to appear on May 28 at 2 p.m. instead.
Mugabe&#8217;s appearance in front of lawmakers has been postponed multiple times, and would mark his first public appearance since losing power in a coup in November last year. His then-deputy Emmerson Mnangagwa has since become president of Zimbabwe. Mugabe, 94, is understood to be in frail health.
&#8220;This isn&#8217;t a witch hunt or to seek to cause embarrassment,&#8221; Mlisawa wrote. He described the summons as a &#8220;quest for answers,&#8221; adding that &#8220;We remain respectful whilst we exhaust all options.&#8221;
The inquiry reflects a claim made by Mugabe in 2016 that Zimbabwe has lost $15 billion in diamond revenue. Mugabe blamed corruption and foreign involvement for this. But, he has since dismissed the figure as &#8220;urban legend.&#8221;
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/24220235/105228564-GettyImages-954653724.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Jekesai Njikizana | AFP | Getty Images"/>
In March 2016, Mugabe announced that the Zimbabwean state would take control of all diamond operations in the country. &#8220;Companies that have been mining diamonds have robbed us of our wealth. That is why we have now said the state must have a monopoly,&#8221; Mugabe said at the time, as reported by Reuters.
<h4>Mnangagwa&#8217;s &#8216;no-brainer populist strategy&#8217;</h4>
The investigation is part of Mnangagwa&#8217;s broader political strategy, Charles Laurie, director and head of politics at consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC via email.
&#8220;Mnangagwa&#8217;s efforts to reign in off-the-books practices are another strong signal to Western governments that he is serious about engendering a credible and plausible investment environment,&#8221; Laurie said. &#8220;The move is also a risk-free political objective supported by all Zimbabweans and international observers, a no-brainer populist strategy in the run-up to the election.&#8221;
Laurie also noted that Mnangagwa stood to gain should Mugabe&#8217;s authority be further discredited. This important for the current president, &#8220;who wants to snuff out lingering claims by Mugabe that he was removed from power improperly.&#8221;
Zimbabwe&#8217;s Marange diamond fields, located in the east of the country, are thought to be among the biggest reserves in the world. But their discovery has served as a poisoned chalice for the nation.
In 2006, upwards of 20,000 illegal diamond diggers descended on the Marange fields. Reports have since surfaced of atrocities committed by the army and police in their crackdown on the smuggling.
Ahead of elections expected in July or August of this year, Mugabe has backed a splinter group of his original ZANU PF party. The New Patriotic Front was formed in March, and represents lawmakers and voters &#8220;outraged by the unconstitutional and humiliating manner in which President Mugabe was criminally ousted from leadership.&#8221;
Mnangagwa&#8217;s tenure so far has been characterized by his promotion of a pro-business agenda in an attempt to resurrect Zimbabwe&#8217;s basket case economy.
Following months of speculation, it was announced earlier this week that Zimbabwe had applied to rejoin the Commonwealth, a 53-nation bloc comprising of the U.K. and its former colonies. Mugabe withdrew Zimbabwe from the group in 2003 in a row over sanctions.
At the ZANU PF manifesto launch on May 4, Mnangagwa said that Zimbabwe had secured $11 billion in investment commitments. &#8220;We need FDI (foreign direct investment) to catapult our economy. We will continue to create a conducive environment for investors in our country,&#8221; he said.

Mugabe misses Zimbabwean parliamentary hearing on $15 billion diamond loss

By Francois Conradie, Head of Research, NKC African Economics
Tunisia held municipal elections on Sunday, May 6. The fact of the elections’ occurrence is notable in itself, because these were the first municipal elections since 2010, and so the first since the Arab Spring upheavals that started in Tunisia in December 2010.
The municipal authorities that result from the vote complete Tunisia’s transition to a fully mature constitutional democracy, entrenching its reputation as the Arab country to have emerged from the Arab Spring in the best shape. (More pessimistic commentators describe it as the only Arab country to have improved its situation since then.)
It is true that the elections are a milestone in Tunisia’s consolidation of its democratic governance, but they are also a barometer with which to evaluate the state of party politics, and politics more generally, just over seven years after the autocratic President Zine Al-Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee his country on a private jet after his people and his apparatus of authoritarianism had turned on him, and three years since the secularists of Nidaa Tounes and the Islamists of Ennahdha struck a grand bargain to put an end to serious social strife.
The elections were delayed several times before they finally took place on Sunday – the original date for them had been October 2016. The main questions about the election beforehand were how big turnout would end up being, and, of course, which parties would do best.
The Higher Independent Instance for Elections (Isie) published its provisional results from every constituency on Tuesday, May 8, and although the results are not final, we do not expect them to change much by the time the final ones are announced on Wednesday, May 9, so we are comfortable commenting on them.
On turnout, firstly, the result was poor: at the national level turnout was only 33.7% of 5.4 million registered voters. In Tunis the figure was only 26%. No prominent parties or civil societies called for a boycott but there was a widespread perception in Tunisia before the vote that the exercise was a useless one – many Tunisians who spoke to journalists on voting day spoke to a theme of betrayal by the corrupt political class.
Prime Minister Youssef Chahed called the high abstention rate a “negative sign, a strong message to political leaders,” although he himself has been less than enormously forceful in cracking down on the kind of corruption people are fed up with.
Also, his policies have contributed to the very worrying price inflation levels currently eating away at Tunisians’ living standards. Consumer price index inflation hit 7.7% y-o-y in April, the highest level since 1991, and we expect consumer price inflation to increase further as Mr Chahed’s government looks to boost revenues by raising taxes as well as reducing energy subsidies, instead of trimming the massive public sector wage bill, which would make the biggest difference but which would trigger a showdown with the powerful labour unions.
Nor have people seen enough action on tax-dodging importers with links to the political class.
The broader theme of betrayal also results from the grand bargain between Nidaa and Ennahdha, which did improve stability in Tunisia, but also resulted in a crisis of political legitimacy. The political class lost much of its credibility in the deal, and Nidaa lost the most: many who voted for the party in 2014 did so to push back against political Islam and subsequently felt betrayed by President Beji Caid Essebsi’s chumminess with the bearded Muslim Brothers of Ennahdha.
The grubby and self-serving factionalism in the party, where Mr Caid Essebsi was seen as backing his son Hafedh for the party leadership, prompting a split, would not have helped.
The table below summarises the preliminary results the Isie was publishing on Tuesday evening:
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Given the factors outline above, Nidaa’s relatively poor performance makes sense. So does Ennahdha’s strong showing: the Islamists have the most disciplined and organised (and, we suspect, best funded) political machine in the country, and its religious reference has a strong appeal for many. Of the 100 municipalities it won, many are in the south, where piety is more important.
We were slightly surprised by the strong showing by independent lists, which won 91 municipalities, and a greater share of the vote than either of the ruling parties – another sign of general mistrust of the political class. The hard-left Popular Front (FP), which has been implementing the electoral strategy of painting itself as the champion of workers against the neoliberal Nidaa-Ennahdha coalition, did dismally, winning only 70,000 votes, and smaller parties did worse still. Ennahdha won most of the municipalities in the Greater Tunis area, apart from the well-heeled Sidi Bou Saïd (Nidaa) and a few constituencies that went independent. In Sfax, Ennahdha did best, and on preliminary results the parties have the same number of seats in Sousse.
The municipal councils are supposed to elect mayors by the middle of June.
We had always considered the danger of extremists disrupting the vote a small threat, and the only incident was in Mdhilla, near Gafsa in the restive phosphate mining country, where voting was postponed at 24 polling stations because of a mix-up with ballot papers.
The existence of a municipal level of government should lead (as it was intended to) to a greater degree of decentralisation of power, which will be risk-positive, but it remains to be seen how much freedom Nidaa and Ennahdha, two parties with strongly conservative instincts, will give mayors.
The good showing by independents will be positive by creating space for potential new leaders, but the disgust with politicians that prompted it, and also led to the low turnout, is risk-negative. It makes us expect a more feverish social environment, especially if, as we expect, prices keep going up and unemployment remains high.

Why Tunisia’s municipal elections are significant

By Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/zimbabwe-opposition-leader-wants-to-give-china-investors-the-boot.html?__source=Facebook">Zimbabwe opposition leader reportedly wants to give Chinese investors the boot</a>
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Chinese investors are &#8220;busy asset-stripping&#8221; Zimbabwe&#8217;s resources, the country&#8217;s main opposition leader said in a speech this week, according to reports.
&#8220;I have seen the deals that (Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa) has entered into with China and others, they are busy asset-stripping the resources of the country,&#8221; Nelson Chamisa said at a May Day rally on Tuesday, as reported by the <a class="inline_asset" title="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43973908" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43973908">BBC</a> and <a class="inline_asset" title="https://www.herald.co.zw/ill-boot-out-chinese-chamisa/" href="https://www.herald.co.zw/ill-boot-out-chinese-chamisa/">local press</a>.
Chamisa is leader of Zimbabwe&#8217;s main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
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&#8220;I have said (that) beginning September when I assume office I will call the Chinese and tell them the deals they signed are unacceptable and they should return to their country,&#8221; he added.
CNBC was not able to independently translate Chamisa&#8217;s speech.
On Wednesday, the MDC published a <a class="inline_asset" title="http://www.mdc.co.zw/index.php/meda/news/373-correction-of-the-herald-story" href="http://www.mdc.co.zw/index.php/meda/news/373-correction-of-the-herald-story">statement</a> on its website addressed to Zimbabwean state-owned newspaper The Herald. The statement accused the newspaper of publishing &#8220;malicious falsehoods&#8221; about Chamisa, although it did not specify what these were.
The &#8220;gist and essence&#8221; of Chamisa&#8217;s May Day speech was that his party &#8220;will not allow the mortgaging of this country for political expedience,&#8221; it said, attributed to Luke Tamborinyoka, presidential spokesperson and director of communications.
An MDC government &#8220;will audit all business deals and those that fail the national interest will be reviewed,&#8221; it said.
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<a class="enlargeThisImage" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/zimbabwe-opposition-leader-wants-to-give-china-investors-the-boot.html?__source=Facebook#"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/03/105105656-GettyImages-941323932.530x298.jpg?v=1522762992" alt="Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on April 3, 2018." width="530" height="298" data-enlarged-image="https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/03/105105656-GettyImages-941323932.1910x1000.jpg?v=1522762992" /></a>
<div class="caption">Zimbabwe&#8217;s President Emmerson Mnangagwa (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on April 3, 2018.</div>
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&#8220;Chamisa&#8217;s comments will play well with the MDC&#8217;s political base, who see Chinese loans as being fundamental for helping keep the former Mugabe regime afloat,&#8221; William Attwell, practice leader for Sub-Saharan Africa at emerging markets advisory firm Frontier Strategy Group, told CNBC on Thursday. &#8220;His comments seek to tap into growing frustration in Zimbabwe that Chinese investment has brought very little in terms of material benefits for locals.&#8221;
Mnangagwa&#8217;s nascent presidency has been characterized by his intention to revive the country&#8217;s economic fortunes through building bridges with both the East and the West. He initially came to power after former leader <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/id/105070327">Robert Mugabe</a>, under whom Mnangagwa served as vice president, was ousted in a military coup in November.
Mnangagwa&#8217;s first visit outside the African continent was to China last month, with attracting foreign investment high on the agenda. China has described itself as an &#8220;<a class="inline_asset" title="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/18/c_136217738.htm" href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/18/c_136217738.htm">all-weather friend</a>&#8221; of Zimbabwe.
Zanu-PF, the party of Mnangagwa and Mugabe, is to release its election manifesto on Friday.
Mnangagwa has pledged &#8220;free and fair&#8221; elections to be held in July of this year, and has said that he will invite international observers.
Attwell said that it was unlikely that Chamisa would be able to deliver on his pledge, should he win the upcoming vote.
&#8220;The raw fact is the Zimbabwe needs Chinese investment,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Whoever wins the July election is going to need as much funding as possible — from China and the West — to rebuild the country&#8217;s decaying infrastructure.&#8221;
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Why Zimbabwe’s opposition leader reportedly wants to give Chinese investors the boot

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/zimbabwe-opposition-leader-wants-to-give-china-investors-the-boot.html">Zimbabwe opposition leader reportedly wants to give Chinese investors the boot</a>
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<li>Nelson Chamisa, Zimbabwe&#8217;s main opposition leader, has reportedly vowed to tell Chinese investors in Zimbabwe that their deals are &#8220;unacceptable,&#8221; should he win the country&#8217;s July election.</li>
<li>Chamisa&#8217;s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said in a statement on Wednesday that it &#8220;will audit all business deals and those that fail the national interest will be reviewed.&#8221;</li>
<li>Anti-China sentiment speaks to the MDC&#8217;s political base, an expert said.</li>
<li>Zimbabwe&#8217;s President Emmerson Mnangagwa has pledged &#8220;free and fair&#8221; elections this summer, the first in decades without ousted former leader Robert Mugabe on the ticket.</li>
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<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/05/03/105180673-GettyImages-953359776.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Jekesai Njikizana | AFP | Getty Images"/>
Chinese investors are &#8220;busy asset-stripping&#8221; Zimbabwe&#8217;s resources, the country&#8217;s main opposition leader said in a speech this week, according to reports.
&#8220;I have seen the deals that (Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa) has entered into with China and others, they are busy asset-stripping the resources of the country,&#8221; Nelson Chamisa said at a May Day rally on Tuesday, as reported by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43973908">BBC</a> and <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/ill-boot-out-chinese-chamisa/">local press</a>.
Chamisa is leader of Zimbabwe&#8217;s main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
&#8220;I have said (that) beginning September when I assume office I will call the Chinese and tell them the deals they signed are unacceptable and they should return to their country,&#8221; he added.
CNBC was not able to independently translate Chamisa&#8217;s speech.
On Wednesday, the MDC published a <a href="http://www.mdc.co.zw/index.php/meda/news/373-correction-of-the-herald-story">statement</a> on its website addressed to Zimbabwean state-owned newspaper The Herald. The statement accused the newspaper of publishing &#8220;malicious falsehoods&#8221; about Chamisa, although it did not specify what these were.
The &#8220;gist and essence&#8221; of Chamisa&#8217;s May Day speech was that his party &#8220;will not allow the mortgaging of this country for political expedience,&#8221; it said, attributed to Luke Tamborinyoka, presidential spokesperson and director of communications.
An MDC government &#8220;will audit all business deals and those that fail the national interest will be reviewed,&#8221; it said.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/03/105105656-GettyImages-941323932.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name=""/>
&#8220;Chamisa&#8217;s comments will play well with the MDC&#8217;s political base, who see Chinese loans as being fundamental for helping keep the former Mugabe regime afloat,&#8221; William Attwell, practice leader for Sub-Saharan Africa at emerging markets advisory firm Frontier Strategy Group, told CNBC on Thursday. &#8220;His comments seek to tap into growing frustration in Zimbabwe that Chinese investment has brought very little in terms of material benefits for locals.&#8221;
Mnangagwa&#8217;s nascent presidency has been characterized by his intention to revive the country&#8217;s economic fortunes through building bridges with both the East and the West. He initially came to power after former leader Robert Mugabe, under whom Mnangagwa served as vice president, was ousted in a military coup in November.
Mnangagwa&#8217;s first visit outside the African continent was to China last month, with attracting foreign investment high on the agenda. China has described itself as an &#8220;<a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/18/c_136217738.htm">all-weather friend</a>&#8221; of Zimbabwe.
Zanu-PF, the party of Mnangagwa and Mugabe, is to release its election manifesto on Friday.
Mnangagwa has pledged &#8220;free and fair&#8221; elections to be held in July of this year, and has said that he will invite international observers.
Attwell said that it was unlikely that Chamisa would be able to deliver on his pledge, should he win the upcoming vote.
&#8220;The raw fact is the Zimbabwe needs Chinese investment,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Whoever wins the July election is going to need as much funding as possible — from China and the West — to rebuild the country&#8217;s decaying infrastructure.&#8221;

Zimbabwe opposition leader reportedly wants to give Chinese investors the boot

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According to a new report from NOI polls, 32 per cent of Nigerians are not aware of the ongoing nationwide voter’s registration for the 2019 elections and 81 per cent of Nigerians say there are challenges faced at registration centres.

32% of Nigerians unaware of ongoing 2019 voter’s registration – NOI polls

By MacDonald Dzirutwe
HARARE, Jan 9 (Reuters) &#8211; If Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai were to stand down &#8211; as he has hinted &#8211; the party he founded would face immediate instability and could even split, handing a gift to new President Emmerson Mnangagwa in an election this year.
The most visible opposition figure in the southern African nation since independence from Britain in 1980, Tsvangirai said on Monday it was time for the older generation to make way for younger leaders in the party.
Mnangagwa, 75, rose to power last November after Robert Mugabe stood down following a de facto coup, ending a 37-year reign marked by economic mismanagement, corruption and vote rigging allegations.
Investors and Western governments who cheered the end of Mugabe’s rule will be closely watching the election for evidence Mnangagwa can run a free and fair vote and turn a new page in Zimbabwe’s history.
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<div id="dpslot_native_3389361926020673_AFL8N1P42D2" data-google-query-id="CImrkuuhy9gCFYLGUQod4AQEmQ">
<div id="google_ads_iframe_/4735792/africa.reuters.com_2__container__">It was expected that Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) would pose a robust challenge to Mnangagwa’s ruling ZANU-PF.</div>
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But that prospect may now be in jeopardy.
Tsvangirai, who has been battling cancer for several years and looked frail at a meeting with Mnangagwa last week, did not explicitly say he would stand down and his spokesman said he could not comment further.
Tsvangirai, 65, has three deputies, one who was elected and two others he handpicked in 2016 to help him run the party, a move that still irks some MDC members.
The MDC has known division twice before, in 2005 and in 2014 following a heavy election defeat to the ZANU-PF. And, though analysts said it was good in the long term for Tsvangirai to relinquish the MDC leadership after nearly 20 years in charge, the succession had to be handled carefully.
“Behind the scenes, the three party vice presidents are gladiating to take over from Tsvangirai,” said Eldred Masunungure, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe.
“It should be a democratic process and not an autocratic change of power. If Tsvangirai takes that route it will tear the party asunder. It will be a sad day if Tsvangirai’s departure means the death of the MDC.”
“CRITICAL MOMENT”
The MDC has weakened progressively since 2008, when Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe in the first round of voting.
After opting out of the run-off alleging violence by the army against its supporters, the MDC formed a unity government with ZANU-PF that helped stabilise the economy until Tsvangirai was defeated in a 2013 presidential election by Mugabe.
A senior MDC official said Tsvangirai was still considering whether to call for a special leadership congress or have the party appoint a new presidential candidate who he could help campaign ahead of elections.
“The MDC is at a very critical moment and the issue of transitioning to a new leader has been weighing heavily on president Tsvangirai,” the MDC executive told Reuters, asking for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Tsvangirai, 65, the self-taught son of a bricklayer who worked in a rural mine to support his family, cut his political teeth in the labour movement as a mine foreman, later becoming a top trade unionist.
In 1999 he was elected founding MDC president and built his political career as a one of the only people willing to stand up to Mugabe, making him difficult to replace.
He will have to juggle regional, tribal and gender considerations in looking for a successor.
“Those are salient issues that the MDC cannot run away from,” said Masunungure. (Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Joe Brock and Richard Balmforth)

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