JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Moody’s said on Friday that a weaker fiscal outlook in South Africa’s medium-term budget policy statement issued this week was a credit negative, sending the rand weaker.
“The government’s revised budget policy statement projects larger fiscal deficits and higher government debt, amid slower growth, a weaker rand and higher interest rates than expected in February, a credit negative,” Moody’s said in a research note.
Moody’s is the last of the top three agencies to still rate the country investment grade.
Reporting by James Macharia; Editing by Robin Pomeroy

Moody’s says weaker fiscal outlook highlighted in SA’s mini budget a credit negative

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; The South African rand was little changed early on Wednesday, as investor caution reigned ahead of a closely watched budget speech by the country’s finance minister.
At 0550 GMT, the rand traded at 14.2700 versus the dollar, a shade weaker from its close of 14.2625 on Tuesday.
Recently appointed Finance Minister Tito Mboweni is expected to announce revised budget deficit targets and growth forecasts, as well as measures to boost the economy and shore up struggling state-owned companies.
The tone of his medium-term budget speech will influence whether Moody’s strips South Africa of its last investment grade credit rating at a review expected after the speech.
“South Africa’s new finance minister will probably announce further fiscal tightening,” John Ashbourne at Capital Economics said in a note.
“This will likely placate ratings agencies, but supports our view that economic growth will remain weak.”
Government bonds were slightly stronger in early deals, with the yield on the benchmark instrument due in 2026 down 4 basis points to 9.125 percent.
Reporting by Alexander Winning; Editing by Sunil Nair

How is the South African rand performing ahead of finmin Mboweni’s mini budget speech?

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; The South African rand firmed against the globally hobbled dollar early on Friday ahead of the country’s credit review announcement by ratings agency Moody’s later in the day.
The rand was 0.85 percent stronger at 14.5100 per dollar at 0650 GMT, having closed in New York at 14.6350.
The rand is expected to trade between 14.3500 and 14.7000 to the dollar on Friday, NKC African Economics wrote in a note.
Moody’s is the last of the top rating agencies to have Pretoria’s long-term foreign-currency debt in investment grade.
South Africa’s stable outlook on its credit rating means there is little chance of a downgrade, Moody’s said on Sept. 13, but a commitment to fiscal consolidation at the October budget would be key to maintaining the positive rating.
The rand was supported by the slightly-better-than-expected South African manufacturing production data for August.
Globally, the U.S. dollar traded at its lowest level this month against its major peers on Friday as declining U.S. treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street soured sentiment. [FRX/]
In fixed income, the yield on the benchmark government bond due in 2026 fell 1 basis points to 9.255 percent.
Stocks are due open firmer at 0700 GMT, with the JSE securities exchange’s Top-40 futures index up 1.10 percent.
Reporting by Nomvelo Chalumbira; Editing by Ed Stoddard

South African rand firms against US dollar ahead of country’s credit review

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The rand is losing strength due to media reports of a possible resignation of South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene. Bond markets aren&#8217;t painting a pretty picture either; yields on treasuries have reached a seven year high. Jan Sluis-Cremer, Foreign Exchange and Money Market Sales Desk at RMB, joins CNBC Africa for more.

Rand weaker on #NhlanhlaNene resignation fears

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The rand is losing strength due to media reports of a possible resignation of South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene. Political Analyst Ralph Mathekga joins CNBC Africa for more.

Why Nene cannot be trusted as finance minister – Ralph Mathekga

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South African investors are increasingly seeking shelter via offshore exposure. But, according to David Nathanson, Global Equity Specialist at Bellwood Capital, it is important for investors to consider the implications of counting on locally listed rand-hedged stocks as a substitute for a truly global portfolio.

Why JSE rand hedges are a poor substitute for a global portfolio

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday there would be no mass layoffs of public sector workers as his government considers various ways to pull the economy out of a recession that has rattled the rand and investor confidence.
The economy slipped into recession in the second quarter for the first time since 2009, data showed in August, a stinging blow to Ramaphosa’s pledge to revive the economy and reduce record-high unemployment after a decade of stagnation.
In June, the National Treasury said it was considering layoffs and early retirement packages for staff in the public sector to avoid breaking its pledge to cut spending after unions clinched above-inflation wage increases.
“The mass retrenchment of public sector workers is not under consideration,” Ramaphosa said at trade union federation Cosatu’s electoral conference in Johannesburg.
“The context of slow economic growth and weak revenue collection means that expenditure on other critical things will suffer &#8230; but we need to address this in a way that does not put the livelihoods of public sector workers at risk.”
The contraction in the economy sent the rand tumbling and triggered warnings from ratings agency Moody’s that the country would struggle to increase revenue and deliver on a promise to cut spending and public debt.
South Africa needs faster economic growth to reduce its 27 percent unemployment rate and alleviate poverty and inequality, both of which stoke instability.
The ruling African National Congress has made repeated pledges to improve the economy. Unemployment is a key concern for voters ahead of elections next year.
Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by James Macharia

Is South Africa planning mass layoffs in the public sector to deal with recession? Here’s what president Ramaphosa has to say…

<ul>
<li>Biggest fall on Indonesia&#8217;s stock market in five years</li>
<li>Rand tumbles to more than two-year low, bonds hit hard</li>
<li>All eyes on Argentina after latest peso drubbing</li>
<li>Turkish lira sags again but not the worst of the moves</li>
</ul>
By Marc Jones
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) &#8211; Emerging markets storms raged fiercely on Wednesday, with South Africa&#8217;s rand at the centre of fresh currency tumult and losses since January for the world&#8217;s biggest EM stock index nearing $1 trillion again.
It was another torrid session in both Asia and fragile EMEA markets. Indonesia&#8217;s stock market had suffered its worst day in over five years as its currency pains worsened while Chinese equities fell almost 2 percent in Shanghai. <a href="reuters://REALTIME/verb=Headlines/ric=.SS">.SS</a>
The rand then slumped to a more than 2-year low in a fresh 1.5 percent drop as traders also dumped its bonds and the most globally traded EM currency, the Mexican peso, too.
The latest peg for the spreading angst had been another 3 percent overnight drop for Argentina&#8217;s peso after news that it was trying to engineer a rapid injection of support from the International Monetary Fund. (<a href="reuters://REALTIME/verb=NewsStory/ric=nL2N1VQ0KP">Full Story</a>)
Trade war and general economic health worries were raw too, with investors wary of the threat of fresh U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that could take effect after a public comment period ends on Thursday. (<a href="reuters://REALTIME/verb=NewsStory/ric=nL2N1VL1AL">Full Story</a>)
&#8220;Given the magnitude of the move in Argentina, I think the focus is still on that and on possible contagion,&#8221; said North Asset Management EM portfolio manager Peter Kisler.
There was no evidence of wide-spread contagion yet he added, though what global stock markets do next could be crucial.
The day&#8217;s falls across markets left MSCI&#8217;s 24-country EM stocks index down for a sixth straight day and down almost 20 percent from late January, a move that has wiped over $950 billion off its combined worth at the time.
The biggest individual move saw Indonesian stocks <a href="reuters://REALTIME/Verb=FullQuote/ric=.JKSE">.JKSE</a> slump almost 5 percent at one point in the biggest fall since 2013 as the rupiah currency wobbled around its lowest levels since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
The central bank said it had &#8220;decisively intervened&#8221; in FX and bond markets in morning trade. (<a href="reuters://REALTIME/verb=NewsStory/ric=nL3N1VR24N">Full Story</a>)
&#8220;EM equities have really been underperforming developed markets. This will end sooner or later, but my feeling is that development markets will catch up to EM rather than that EM will bounce significantly.&#8221;
Financial flow numbers released by the Institute of International Finance on Tuesday had also underlined the nerves among EM investors.
Foreign money inflows to emerging markets shrank to just $2.2 billion in August from almost $14 billion in July, they showed, with net outflows from emerging debt of almost $5 billion during the month.
South Africa had said Tuesday its economy returned to recession in the second-quarter of this year with the second straight quarter of contraction, even before the worst of the emerging currency shock hit over the summer.
Elsewhere in Asia, India’s rupee had skidded further overnight to new record lows and Malaysia’s ringitt fell to its lowest in 9 months.

Rand tumbles to more than two-year low, bonds hit hard, emerging market currency storms rage on, stocks wipeout nears $1 trillion

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CNBC Africa went on to the street of Johannesburg to find out what people on the ground think of the technical recession that descended over South Africa.

South Africans speak out about recession

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The rand plunged against the dollar as South Africa entered a recession and the greenback strengthened. GDP in the second quarter of 2018 fell by 0.7 per cent .Citadel’s Chief Economist &#038; Advisory Partner, Maarten Ackerman joins CNBC Africa for more.

Rand plunges as SA enters recession

<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-126652 size-large" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/shutterstock_254320597_ZAR_scatter-1024x553.jpg" alt="" width="696" height="376" />
By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst
South Africa has gone into a technical recession following the release of the country&#8217;s GDP figures. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released data showing that the country&#8217;s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate declined by 0,7% in the second quarter of 2018.
Stats SA data further showed a revised 2,6% contraction in the first quarter. Amid the news, the South African rand fell over 2% to R15,22 against the US dollar.
Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst in an emailed statement says the print was significantly worse than we had anticipated, but can largely be ascribed to historical revisions that stretched all the way back to 1Q17. While these revisions had no impact on the 2017 economic growth rate, 1Q18 growth was lowered to -2.6% q/q from -2.2% initially.
Growth was dragged lower by five of the ten sectors of the economy, underscoring just how broad-based the weakness is.
Agricultural output fell -29.2% q/q, subtracting -0.8 percentage points (pps) from growth, while transport sector growth fell -4.9% (-0.4 pps). The manufacturing, trade and government sectors contracted by -0.3% q/q, -1.9% and -0.5% respectively, shaving a combined -0.4 pps from the headline number.
&#8220;The only sectors to make any meaningful positive contribution were mining, construction and finance, real-estate and business services, all of which came off a very weak base. We don’t expect their positive contribution to last. In short, there were very few, if any, positives to take away from the figures.&#8221;
Furthermore, government does not have the fiscal headroom to add any impetus to growth, particularly as current spending continues to crowd out infrastructure investment. This was borne out by government fixed investment contracting by -2.1% q/q, and SOE investment falling -10.1%, while compensation of employees for the government sector increased by 7.5% y/y – the average for all sectors was 6.6%.
There is also no support coming from the household sector, as household consumption dropped -1.3% q/q, with clothing, transport and recreation spend bearing the brunt of consumers tightening their belts.
Data at hand thus far, including the August PMI and August vehicle sales, suggest that growth for the rest of the year will continue along these lines, and we believe that growth forecasts will inevitably miss on the low side this year, jeopardising tax revenue and fiscal consolidation targets, and in turn, drawing the unwanted attention of rating agencies.
<ul>
<li>with additional reporting from CNBC Africa</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;

Rand plummets after South Africa enters technical recession

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Yesterday, United States President Donald Trump tweeted that the US state secretary would look into South Africa&#8217;s proposed land reforms with urgency. South African Afrikaans lobby group, AfriForum, welcomed these comments as a sign of support from the international community. The group’s Chief Executive, Kallie Kriel spoke to CNBC Africa&#8217;s Karabo Letlhatlha about their stance on land.

Here’s why AfriForum defends Trump’s tweet on land

By Lubabalo Mashiqana
South Africa&#8217;s land expropriation without compensation intentions have caught the attention of United States President Donald Trump.
Trump tweeted on Thursday morning
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
I have asked Secretary of State <a href="https://twitter.com/SecPompeo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SecPompeo</a> to closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures and expropriations and the large scale killing of farmers. “South African Government is now seizing land from white farmers.” <a href="https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TuckerCarlson</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FoxNews</a>
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1032454567152246785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
This follows after SA’s President <a href="http://cnbc.africa/insights/ramaphosa/2018/07/31/land-expropriation/">Cyril Ramaphosa had a Q&amp;A on land expropriation</a> in Parliament on Wednesday, and just over a month after land hearings began around the country. Apparently Trump&#8217;s tweet was motivated by the below Fox News insert.
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EThwj4NtnvU" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
Trump&#8217;s comments sent the rand 1.87% lower to the dollar to 14.42 as fears spooked investors that sanctions could be imposed on South Africa.
&nbsp;

US President attacks SA’s land expropriation intentions, rand slides

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s rand firmed more than one percent in early trade on Tuesday, matching gains by its emerging market peers as criticism of Federal Reserve rate hikes by U.S. President Donald Trump hurt the dollar and revived demand for some risk assets.
At 0630 GMT the rand was 1.1 percent firmer at 14.3700 per dollar, its firmest since Thursday, in what traders said was the beginning of a consolidation pattern with momentum indicators showing the unit was oversold.
The rand’s 3-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), used to identify oversold or overbought signals by comparing the current price to previous periods, dipped below the 70-mark overnight indicating a reversal of the recent bear trend.
The rand crashed to a two-year low last week as the financial crisis in Turkey rattled sentiment towards emerging markets broadly, adding to concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China trade spat on global economic growth.
But with Turkish markets closed for a religious holiday and anticipated talks between the United States and China seen lowering the temperature of the dispute, Trump’s central bank comments were the main catalyst.
In an interview with Reuters Trump said he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates, causing the greenback to slide to its lowest level since Aug. 9.
Bonds also firmed, with the yield on the benchmark 2026 paper down 3.5 basis points to 9 percent.
Stocks were set to open a touch lower at 0700 GMT, with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s Top-40 futures index down 0.1 percent.
Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by Ed Stoddard

South African rand firmer as Trump comments hurt dollar, what you need to know…

London, 15 August 2018 &#8212; The pace of South Africa&#8217;s fiscal consolidation will be slower than government forecasts as weaker than expected economic growth and a rising public sector wage bill act as fiscal headwinds, Moody&#8217;s Investors Service said a report today. Despite the slower pace of fiscal consolidation, medium-term deficit targets remain within reach and, if met, will support a stabilization of debt levels and reinforce Moody&#8217;s assessment of the sovereign&#8217;s fiscal and institutional strengths.
The report, &#8220;Government of South Africa: Fiscal slippages likely this year, but medium-term targets remain within reach&#8221;, is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody&#8217;s subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The research is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
&#8220;We expect a slower pace fiscal consolidation than the Government of South Africa is forecasting,&#8221; said Lucie Villa, a Moody&#8217;s Vice President &#8212; Senior Credit Officer and co-author of the report. &#8220;Growth this year is expected to be lower than the government&#8217;s own estimates, weighing on tax revenues, while the public sector wage agreement in June also brings extra, unbudgeted costs.&#8221;
Moody&#8217;s expects a fiscal deficit of around 4.0% of GDP in 2018-19, implying a 0.4 percentage point of GDP shortfall from government targets. However, Moody&#8217;s expects the government to hit its 3.5% fiscal deficit target by 2020-21, with debt likely to stabilize at around 56% of GDP.
Moody&#8217;s expects that near-term fiscal adjustments will be made on the spending side based on the government&#8217;s record of operating within spending ceilings and undershooting revenue targets.
Improved tax collection led by the South African Revenue Service will allow revenue to take more prominence in the longer term fiscal consolidation path.
Rising interest costs in the context of investors taking a more risk averse stance towards emerging markets are a main risk to Moody&#8217;s fiscal forecasts, together with potential support to state-owned-enterprises.

South African rand dives as Moody’s warns on fiscal deficit, what you need to know…

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s economic growth this year will be “much lower” than initial expectations, the central bank said in a presentation to parliament on Wednesday, calling any recovery “weak and choppy”.
The South African Reserve Bank added that fixed investment was not expected to pick up meaningfully this year, while inflation risks remained on the upside.
Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Writing by Alexander Winning; Editing by Joe Brock

Central bank expects South Africa’s 2018 growth to be “much lower” than initial forecasts, here’s why

By Kyle Hulett, Sygnia’s Head of Asset Allocation
Over the past few days, the rand has weakened by 10%, the Russian rouble by 9% and the Turkish lira by a massive 26% relative to the US dollar. On a year to date basis the rand is down almost 11%. This broad emerging market contagion has affected equities as well, with the MSCI Emerging Market Index down 17% from its January peak. China’s Shanghai Composite Index entered a bear market in July, having fallen more than 20% from the January peak, a technical definition of a bear market, while Turkey has been in a bear market territory since May.
In US dollar terms equity markets in Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Nigeria markets followed the others on Friday. The rand has also broken through the psychologically important R14/US$ level.
The three main catalysts for the sudden acceleration of the sell-off in emerging markets have been US President Donald Trump’s tweet attacks on both Turkey and Russia, higher than expected US inflation numbers, as well as additional trade tariffs on China.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1027899286586109955?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> 
The lira fell as Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish imports of aluminium to 20% and steel to 50%.
The breakdown occurred after Turkey refused to release a detained US pastor, Andrew Brunson, who is on trial in Turkey on terrorism charges. Another explanation has to do with the fact that a prior fall in the lira has offset some of the effects of initial sanction levels. Turkish President Recep Erdogan further unnerved investors by claiming that a shadowy “interest rate lobby” and Western credit ratings agencies are attempting to bring down Turkey’s economy.
European banks’ exposure to Turkey’s foreign debt and local operations are raising concerns of contagion risk.
The rouble tumbled to two-year lows after the US State Department indicated that it would impose new sanctions on Russia after determining that Moscow had used a nerve agent against a former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter, Yulia, in Britain. The sanctions come into effect in three months if Moscow fails to allow on-site inspections and will include downgrading of diplomatic relations, suspending the state airline’s approval to fly to the US and cutting off nearly all exports and imports. Separate draft US legislation introduced last week proposes curbs on the operations of several state-owned Russian banks in the US and restrictions on their use of the US dollar. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that these steps would be considered a declaration of economic war.
At the same time US core inflation rose at the fastest pace in 10 years in July, which means that the US Federal Reserve is likely to increase interest rates at a more rapid pace.
However, the negative economic impact of a sell-off of South African assets cannot be underestimated. A weaker rand makes imports more expensive, which means higher prices, including petrol prices, and higher inflation, always a negative for consumer spending. If inflation rises too high it is likely that we will see the return of higher interest rates as well.

rand

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South Africans speak out about recession

Rand plunges as SA enters recession

Rand plummets after South Africa enters technical recession

Here’s why AfriForum defends Trump’s tweet on land

US President attacks SA’s land expropriation intentions, rand slides

South African rand firmer as Trump comments hurt dollar, what you need to know…

South African rand dives as Moody’s warns on fiscal deficit, what you need to know…

Central bank expects South Africa’s 2018 growth to be “much lower” than initial forecasts, here’s why

This is what you need to know about the sell-off of emerging market currencies

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rand

Moody’s says weaker fiscal outlook highlighted in SA’s mini budget a credit negative

How is the South African rand performing ahead of finmin Mboweni’s mini budget speech?

South African rand firms against US dollar ahead of country’s credit review

Rand weaker on #NhlanhlaNene resignation fears

Why Nene cannot be trusted as finance minister – Ralph Mathekga

Why JSE rand hedges are a poor substitute for a global portfolio

Is South Africa planning mass layoffs in the public sector to deal with recession? Here’s what president Ramaphosa has to say…

Rand tumbles to more than two-year low, bonds hit hard, emerging market currency storms rage on, stocks wipeout nears $1 trillion

South Africans speak out about recession

Rand plunges as SA enters recession

Rand plummets after South Africa enters technical recession

Here’s why AfriForum defends Trump’s tweet on land

US President attacks SA’s land expropriation intentions, rand slides

South African rand firmer as Trump comments hurt dollar, what you need to know…

South African rand dives as Moody’s warns on fiscal deficit, what you need to know…

Central bank expects South Africa’s 2018 growth to be “much lower” than initial forecasts, here’s why

This is what you need to know about the sell-off of emerging market currencies

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