WASHINGTON (Reuters) &#8211; World Bank President David Malpass on Wednesday suggested that Russia’s war in Ukraine and its impact on food and energy prices, as well as the availability of fertilizer, could trigger a global&nbsp;recession.



Malpass told an event hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that Germany‘s economy, the world’s fourth-largest, has already slowed substantially&nbsp;due to higher energy prices, and said&nbsp;reduced production of&nbsp;fertilizer could worsen conditions elsewhere. 



“As we look at the global GDP … it’s hard right now to see how we avoid a&nbsp;recession,” Malpass said.&nbsp;He gave no specific forecast.



He said the economies of Ukraine and Russia were both expected to see a significant contraction, while Europe, China and the United States were seeing slower growth.



Developing countries were being hit even harder given shortfalls of fertilizer and food stocks and energy supplies, he said.



“The idea of energy prices doubling is enough to trigger a&nbsp;recession&nbsp;by itself,” he said.



In China, he said the relatively sharp slowdown in growth was based on the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation and the pre-existing real estate crisis the country had been facing.



The World Bank last month had already cut its global growth forecast for 2022 by nearly a full percentage point, to 3.2% from 4.1%, due to the impacts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



Malpass gave no details on when a global&nbsp;recession&nbsp;could begin.

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World Bank’s Malpass says war in Ukraine may trigger global recession￼

DAKAR, May 25 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Senegal&#8217;s president and African Union chairman Macky Sall said on Wednesday that when he visits Russia and Ukraine in the coming weeks he will push them to unblock exports of grains and fertilizer to avoid widespread famine.



Africa is suffering from disruptions in food supply and soaring prices of basic goods and risks &#8220;disastrous consequences&#8221; if the situation endures, Sall said during a conversation with philanthropist Mo Ibrahim at the Ibrahim Governance Forum.



Nearly half of Africa&#8217;s 54 countries rely on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Russia is also a major supplier of fertilizer to at least 11 countries.<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AL5N2WV5UH&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read full story</a>



&#8220;We have pleaded for a ceasefire, for an end to the war and for the release of all food products &#8230; so that the world doesn&#8217;t know a famine after two years of COVID and almost three months of war,&#8221; said Sall. Russia invaded Ukraine in late February.



&#8220;There are multiple initiatives to call on countries that have (grain) stocks to liberate them &#8230; and to ensure that Russia can authorize the export of cereals from Ukraine and can also export itself. This is the African position,&#8221; he said.



Parts of Africa are already facing record hunger levels, driven by insecurity, climate shocks and the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.L5N2W23Z3



If food supply blockages were to continue and there was a famine, Sall said: &#8220;The world would not be able to contain the consequences because it would be massive on immigration. It would be dramatic for African countries.&#8221;



Sall said on Sunday he would visit Moscow and Kyiv in his capacity as chairman of the African Union, which wants peace in Ukraine through dialogue between the two sides.<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AL5N2XE0BP&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read full story</a>



(Reporting by Bate Felix; Writing by Nellie Peyton; editing by Grant McCool)

grains

African Union head to push Russia, Ukraine to unblock grain exports￼

Price rises sparked by war worsening food crisis in Africa



Ukraine, Russia are major suppliers of wheat, fertilizers



Aid agencies hit by rising costs and drop in donor funding



By Nelson Banya



HARARE, May 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Zimbabwean security guard Edwin Dapi was already struggling to provide for his wife and four children before a conflict 11,000 km (6,800 miles) away in Ukraine sent global prices for grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer soaring.



Now his monthly pay of 18,000 Zimbabwe dollars, worth roughly $55 at the black market rate used at many informal markets, is stretched to breaking point.



At a supermarket in Mabvuku, one of the poorest neighbourhoods of the capital Harare, the 46-year-old was fretting over his family&#8217;s next meal.



He reached for a 2-litre (0.5 gallon) bottle of vegetable oil, but at 990 Zimbabwean dollars it was more than he could afford. So was a 2 kg (4.4 lb) bag of flour for 390 Zimbabwean dollars.



&#8220;I keep hearing it&#8217;s because of Ukraine, but I don&#8217;t know what that has to do with us,&#8221; he said, scratching oil and flour from his grocery list.



United Nations agencies are warning that price hikes sparked by Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine will worsen a food crisis in Africa, where tens of millions of people have already been plunged into extreme poverty by the COVID-19 pandemic, armed conflicts, climate shocks and economic turmoil.



Last year, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for nearly two-thirds of the 193 million people considered to be acutely food insecure worldwide, a report by the Global Network Against Food Crises, set up by the United Nations and the European Union, said this month.



Once-prosperous Zimbabwe has struggled to feed itself since the seizure of thousands of white-owned farms to resettle black families, a policy championed by Zimbabwe&#8217;s late president Robert Mugabe during the 2000s.



More recently, its economy has been throttled by drought and cyclones, rolling electricity cuts, foreign currency shortages and runaway inflation.



The U.N. World Food Program (WFP) estimates that some 5.3 million Zimbabweans – around a third of the population &#8211; are food insecure.



To make ends meet, Dapi said he was making plans to move his family to his home village of Mutoko, some 140 km (87 miles) northeast of Harare. &#8220;I must reduce my rent and school fees because everything is going up, except my salary,&#8221; he said.



Across Africa, food insecurity is on the rise. More than 2 million children are at risk of starving to death in the Horn of Africa, where parts of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are facing their driest conditions in more than 40 years, U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths told donors in Geneva on April 26.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AL2N2WO1H3&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read full story</a>



In Ethiopia, a civil war has pushed hundreds of thousands of people into famine conditions. Millions more are at risk in South Sudan, where a war that ended in 2020 caused widespread destruction, compounded by some of the worst flooding in generations.&nbsp;L3N2NW2JD



West Africa is facing its worst food crisis on record, driven by Islamist insurgencies that have forced millions of people off their land in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. The region has also seen worsening floods and droughts linked to global warming.&nbsp;L5N2W23Z3



The conflict in Ukraine is making a dire situation even worse.



The war has disrupted shipping in the Black Sea, a major artery for grains and other commodities, throttling exports from Russia and Ukraine to markets including Africa. Ukraine has said the area sown with grains could fall by around a fifth this year because of the war.



Abebe Haile-Gabriel, assistant director-general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and its representative for Africa, said nearly half of the continent&#8217;s 54 countries rely on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports. Russia is also a major supplier of fertilizer to at least 11 countries.



&#8220;This Ukraine war&#8217;s impact is overlapping with a crisis that has already been unfolding in some African countries,&#8221; Abebe told Reuters. &#8220;We have a very grim outlook going forward.&#8221;



&#8216;DOUBLE JEOPARDY&#8217;



Even before the conflict in Ukraine, food inflation was pushing many African families to the brink. Global food commodity prices climbed over 23% last year, the fastest pace in more than a decade, according to the FAO.



Many of the most vulnerable depend on handouts from the WFP, which buys half the wheat it distributes around the world from Ukraine. Rising food and fuel prices have increased its monthly operating costs by $71 million – a 50% rise &#8211; since 2019, said Tomson Phiri, a global spokesman.



&#8220;WFP faces a double jeopardy: our costs are going up as the numbers of hungry rise,&#8221; he told Reuters.



Prior to the Ukraine war, the WFP faced a funding shortfall that forced it to cut rations in 17 African countries &#8211; including Zimbabwe, Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia – and the gap has widened as donors turn their attention to the conflict in Europe, Phiri said.



Experts say the impact of grains shortages could be particularly harsh in North Africa, where countries like Egypt import up to 80% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine.



But even African countries that import little from them are being hurt by higher world prices for key commodities.



Kenya, East Africa&#8217;s biggest economy, was shielded from early impacts because millers there had turned to other suppliers after Russia increased taxes on its wheat exports last year, said Kennedy Nyaga, chairman of the United Grain Millers Association.



Kenya has sufficient wheat reserves to last until September but has already run out of reserves of maize &#8211; its staple &#8211; due to the drought, Nyaga said.



The association is pressing the government to allow millers to import 360,000 tons of maize duty free, saying prices leapt from around 2,800 shillings ($24.17) per 90 kg bag to 4,500 shillings since December.



Kenya&#8217;s Ministry of Agriculture did not respond to requests for comment. Finance minister Ukur Yatani said on May 5 he was yet to receive a request from the millers for duty free imports.



STRUGGLING FOR BASICS



In Zimbabwe, households are already feeling the pain. About half its 15 million people survive on less than $1.90 per day, according to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency.



Households’ struggles to afford food were compounded when the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe hiked prices for wheat flour and the staple maize meal by about 15% in March, citing surging global prices linked to the Ukraine war.



The FAO says that Zimbabwe imports the bulk of its wheat from the Black Sea and Baltic regions, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for nearly one-fifth of imports last year.



Information Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said in March the government had purchased sufficient maize and wheat stocks from local farmers in the 2021-21 agricultural year to cushion the poor against any food shortages this year.



But the millers association imposed even bigger price increases in April of 31% for wheat flour and 52% for maize meal.



The group says it is seeking alternative suppliers for at least 155,000 tonnes of imports needed until the next harvest in October.



As fuel prices rose and the currency rapidly devalued, Zimbabwe&#8217;s annual inflation jumped to 96% in April, up from 61% in January.



And with fertilizer prices soaring due to the disruption of exports from Russia, many farmers in Zimbabwe are struggling to afford it just as dry weather is affecting crop yields in parts of the country.



Fertilizer prices are up 30% over the past year, according to the Zimbabwe Farmers Union.



&#8220;If fertilizer prices remain at their record high levels, it will also dim crop yield prospects for the 2022/23 agricultural year,&#8221; WFP&#8217;s Zimbabwe spokeswoman Maria Gallar Sanchez said.



Officials at Zimbabwe&#8217;s information, agriculture and trade ministries did not respond to requests for comment.



Fertilizer firm Omnia Holdings&nbsp;OMNJ.J, which operates in many African countries, said prices of potash, ammonia, urea and other key soil nutrients have gone up by 200%-400% since January 2021.



Small-scale farmers, who account for more than 70% of fertilizer consumption in the region, have been hardest hit, Omnia Chief Executive Seelan Gobalsamy told Reuters.



Boniface Mutize, who grows maize and soybeans just outside Harare, said he has started making his own fertilizer by mixing cow dung or chicken waste with zinc. But he said he needs ammonium nitrate, which is not produced in large quantities in Zimbabwe.



&#8220;Many smallholder farmers will not be able to come back next season to grow their own food,&#8221; he said.



($1 = 115.8500 Kenyan shillings)



(Additional reporting by Duncan Miriri and Ayenat Mersie in Nairobi; Editing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo and Daniel Flynn)

Ukraine

World Bank’s Malpass says war in Ukraine may trigger global recession

African Union head to push Russia, Ukraine to unblock grain exports

Ukraine war fuels food crisis in distant Africa

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