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As the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa gather in Johannesburg for their annual meeting, the issue of trade protectionism is set to dominate talks amid Trump&#8217;s proposed tariffs on the European Union and Beijing. CNBC Africa&#8217;s Lubabalo Mashiqana spoke to Onkar Kanwar, Head of Brics Business Council, India.

Brics Business Council’s Onkar Kanwar optimistic about summit

This week a handful of the most powerful people on the planet will tread the pavement in Africa’s richest square mile to plot the way forward for the emerging economies of the southern hemisphere.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, India’s Narendra Modi, Brazil’s Michel Temer and China’s Xi Jinping lead a group of presidents to the BRICS conference at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg on July 25,26 and 27. These are the strident leaders of the emerging economies armed with aggressive, long term, foreign economic policy, rich in resources and determined to see a shift of world power south from the northern hemisphere.
South Africa, which joined the south-to-south political and economic cooperation group in 2011, is chairing the group this year and has high hopes for it.
South Africa is very much the junior partner in the BRICS group that did R462 billion ($34 billion) in trade among themselves, in 2017, and garnered more than R554 trillion in foreign direct investments. In 2015, India gathered 38.9% of world foreign direct investment, Russia 26.1% while South Africa managed a mere 0.8%.
Yet South Africa will be hoping to use the gravitas of the organisation to help funnel investment in from Russia to Saudi Arabia and Qatar in search of fulfilling President Cyril Ramaphosa’s pledge of $100 billion in foreign investment.
South Africa plans to lead the way in talks over manufacturing, minerals process, science and technology. Tourism is also likely to be a topic for South African government officials with the country hosting around 200,000 tourists a year from BRICS countries, as will the fourth industrial revolution and peacekeeping.
“I think we may see a few infrastructure deals and trade agreements, especially with Russia, as South Africa tries to achieve Cyril Ramaphosa’s $100 billion foreign investment pledge,” says George Glynos, of ETM analysts.
“There will be a good deal of sharing of ideas and technology transfer, but I don’t think we will see too much concrete emerging from this conference,” says Azar Jammine, of Econometrix.
On the political front the big expected meeting will be between Putin and Xi Jinping to discuss the fall out of US President Donald Trump’s trade war.
President Modi plans to make a dash across the African continent to arrive in time for proceedings on Wednesday. At 9 am CAT the Indian premier will address the Parliament of Uganda, in Kampala, an address that will be carried live across the continent by CNBC Africa.

BRICS in Africa, what you need to know

The <a href="http://www.brics2018.org.za/">10th BRICS summit</a> to be hosted by South Africa is going to be closely watched. It comes at a time when extraordinary global political and economic challenges are facing the world.
The BRICS bloc is made up of 5 of the leading countries in the global South — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
The challenges facing the world range from country specific problems relating to domestic poverty, inequality and unemployment to climate change and a global economic system that is biased in favour of corporate interests, particularly in finance and technology.
One of the most immediate political challenges relate to the changing dynamics in global economic governance. The current global powerhouse, the US, appears intent on starting trade wars with both China and the European Union. Africa can’t avoid being adversely affected by a trade war between these three economic powers, which are its three largest trading partners.
The US is also pulling back from multilateral governance arrangements that it created. For example, it withdrew from the upcoming United Nations (UN) <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/03/donald-trump-pulls-us-out-of-un-global-compact-on-migration">conference on migration</a> and from the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/06/withdraws-human-rights-council-180619173311272.html">UN Human Rights Council</a>. And Washington is effectively paralysing the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by refusing to agree to the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/trade-wars-us-blocking-appointment-of-members-of-wtos-appellate-body/articleshow/63177200.cms">appointment</a> of new judges at the WTO Appellate Body.
These developments are creating a volatile and unpredictable situation for all countries. Small players on the global stage, like South Africa and other countries on the continent, face the prospect of becoming collateral damage in the destruction of the current global governance arrangements.
Given all these complex challenges, how should we judge the success of the BRICS Summit?
We can use three tests: is BRICS being strengthened? What benefits will accrue to Africa? And how is the bloc planning to influence global economic governance reform?
<h2>BRICS strengthening</h2>
One goal of the upcoming summit should be to strengthen the relationship between the BRICS partners.
A concrete way of measuring this will be to look at the number and quality of agreements to emerge out of the summit. A successful summit will result in a range of substantial agreements being reached. The world will be able to scrutinise the outcome in the communique released at the end of the meeting.
It is important to note that the summit is the apex event in a year-long process. During the year various groups of BRICS government officials, civil society groups and technical experts meet to discuss issues of common interest. They have included technical groups such as the BRICS water forum and a committee looking at customs cooperation. Others have involved political matters, such as meetings of foreign affairs ministers and government officials who help guide their leaders to the summit (known as Sherpas).
The participants in these meetings try to reach agreements on issues of mutual interest – such as establishing a BRICS vaccine research centre – or finding ways to collaborate in sectors like tourism. Their job is also to try and resolve differences.
These efforts feed into the work of the summit as the Sherpas prepare the statement of what has been agreed. Details of the agreements that have been struck will be released in a statement at the end of the summit.
<h2>BRICS in Africa</h2>
Given that the theme for this year’s summit is: “BRICS in Africa: Collaboration for Inclusive Growth and Shared Prosperity in the 4th Industrial Revolution”, it’s reasonable to expect the BRICS summit to produce benefits for Africa.
One area that would be beneficial for the continent would be a signal from the leaders that the BRICS members are willing to commit to funding infrastructure projects on the continent. This is important because Africa is in the process of putting in place an ambitious new <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/continents-free-trade-deal-a-game-changer-for-africa-15795779">Continental Free Trade Agreement</a>. Successful implementation will require constructing infrastructure that can link the continent both internally and with other parts of the world.
BRICS could position itself for a critical role in the funding of these infrastructure projects.
Two obvious vehicles for such funds are the BRICS’s New Development Bank and the funds that China has created to support its <a href="https://qz.com/983460/obor-an-extremely-simple-guide-to-understanding-chinas-one-belt-one-road-forum-for-its-new-silk-road/">One Belt One Road Initiative</a>.
Thus a test for summit success will be whether it generates new financing for sustainable infrastructure in Africa, and the nature of the financing.
<h2>Global governance reform</h2>
One goal shared by all the BRICS states is reforming global economic governance structures like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). The bloc hasn’t been particularly successful in this mission. But this year may be an opportune time to promote reform.
Actions by the US have undermined its leadership position in the world and may have made other countries more open to governance reforms in key international economic organisations. This is particularly relevant for the IMF which is reviewing its quota allocations. A shift would lead to the world body being more responsive to the concerns of its poorer member countries.
There is a longstanding call for the inclusion of a third African chair on the IMF board. It is unconscionable that the 46 sub-Saharan African countries have the lowest level of representation of any region on the IMF board. South Africa should push BRICS to stand behind this call.
The BRICS should also support making the IMF more <a href="https://theconversation.com/top-job-for-south-african-gives-african-countries-sway-at-the-imf-90700">accountable</a> to countries affected by its operations. This could be done by demanding that the IMF create an independent accountability mechanism. It is currently the only multilateral financial institution without one.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99526/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />A key benefit of the BRICS is its potential to lead efforts to meaningfully reform the global economic system. It therefore behoves the citizens of BRICS countries to hold their governments accountable for fulfilling this potential.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danny-bradlow-168878">Danny Bradlow</a>, SARCHI Professor of International Development Law and African Economic Relations, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-judge-the-success-of-the-brics-summit-three-questions-will-do-the-trick-99526">original article</a>

The questions to ask when measuring the success of the BRICS summit

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Scouted in Russia, fashion model Kristina Romanova started her career at 16 years old. Seven years later, after noting, and experiencing cases of abuse and assault in the industry, her and co-founder Antoniette Costa of their company Humans of Fashion Foundation, are now providing pro-bono lawyers, counselors and resources to fight it globally. She joins CNBC Africa for more.
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Top models team up to fight sexual harassment

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One of the biggest names in world football and most accomplished African footballers is giving street players a chance to go kick a ball in Russia. Samuel Eto&#8217;o of Barcelona and Chelsea fame was in Johannesburg.

Football star Samuel Eto’o’s gift for African street players

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendon-j-cannon-422778">Brendon J. Cannon</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/khalifa-university-1103">Khalifa University</a>
Kenya wants to go nuclear. Since 2012, Nairobi has been talking the talk and walking the walk. It has engaged the International Atomic Energy Agency and signed multilateral letters of intent in pursuit of nuclear power.
To date, Kenya reportedly has memoranda of understanding with <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Four-countries-sign-on-Kenya-s-nuclear-energy-plans/539546-3850138-jhb47lz/index.html">Russia, China, South Korea and Slovakia</a> which involve the building of four nuclear power plants with a total output of 4,000 MW. France is apparently also eyeing the potentially lucrative deals which would <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000229172/demand-setback-now-puts-kenya-s-mega-power-plan-on-the-back-burner">nearly double</a> Kenya’s current electricity capacity.
Kenya’s Nuclear Electricity Board <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/news/iaea-approves-kenya-nuclear-power-application/">secured the global atomic energy agency’s approval</a> in 2016. It hopes to have the first plant online anywhere from <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Four-countries-sign-on-Kenya-s-nuclear-energy-plans/539546-3850138-jhb47lz/index.html">2022</a> to 2027, leading a new African push for nuclear power. The only country currently generating nuclear is South Africa.
Other African countries have signed agreements with foreign firms. These include Nigeria’s <a href="http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/energy/going-nuclear-africas-energy-future/">plans</a> to build plants with Rosatom, the Russian firm. South Africa is <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-presidents-last-ditch-effort-to-ram-through-a-nuclear-power-deal-87018">also pursuing a deal</a> for new nuclear power plants with the company as is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/663f5dd6-af72-36b7-a002-c27ab5b13a66">Egypt</a>.
In January, the international nuclear agency <a href="http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/energy/going-nuclear-africas-energy-future/">concluded</a> that Ghana had made “considerable progress in the development of its nuclear power infrastructure.” Uganda is also <a href="http://ugbusiness.com/4217/russia-likely-to-win-bid-for-ugandas-nuclear-energy-plans">reportedly</a> pursuing nuclear energy.
The cost of the Kenya plant is estimated at <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Four-countries-sign-on-Kenya-s-nuclear-energy-plans/539546-3850138-jhb47lz/index.html">Sh500 billion</a>. This is costly and, given the current energy consumption patterns in Kenya, would be a massive waste of money.
Kenya’s industrial and consumer demand, economic growth, relative poverty as well as the current grid and distribution network simply do not support this magnitude of power generation at such exorbitant costs.
<h2>Myths about Kenya’s power situation</h2>
According to the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/powering-africa">popular narrative</a>, Kenya suffers from the twin evils of electricity that is overly expensive and in short supply. Yet there is <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000229172/demand-setback-now-puts-kenya-s-mega-power-plan-on-the-back-burner">strong evidence</a> that Kenya’s power is relatively cheap and that successive governments have exaggerated both it’s economic growth trajectory and its need for a massive increase in power generation.
For example, Kenya has an installed capacity of just over <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000229172/demand-setback-now-puts-kenya-s-mega-power-plan-on-the-back-burner">2,400MW, against a peak demand of just over 1,600MW</a>. This is 800MW above peak hours demand.
While economies are required to have surplus power capacity, excess capacity can lead to higher power bills as consumers are often charged for idle power plants.
Thus the government, while promising ever cheaper power to consumers may actually be undercutting this promise in its pursuit of nuclear power plants and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312529345_Pipelines_Diplomacy_and_Power_An_Analysis_of_East_Africa%27s_Oil">other costly projects</a> that fail to reflect both industrial and private consumer demand.
<h2>Note of caution</h2>
A recent <a href="http://www.lahmeyer.de/en/item/article/masterplan-for-power-generation-and-transmission-in-kenya-lahmeyer-advises-the-government.html">study</a> by a German engineering consultancy further confirmed how exaggerated government figures about demand have been. It noted that Kenya’s maximum power demand would
<blockquote>grow 72% to 2,259MW by 2020 from the current 1,620MW, when projects such as the standard gauge railway start operating fully.</blockquote>
Government <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">estimates</a>, on the other hand, project peak demand will jump threefold to 4,755 megawatts in the three-year period. This is twice as much as the consultant’s estimates.
On top of this, Kenya’s problem isn’t that it needs more energy. Rather it needs to address distribution issues.
Any project involving the generation of more power needs to pay equal attention to Kenya’s grid and distribution system which currently can’t <a href="https://qz.com/702604/it-wasnt-just-a-monkey-that-brought-down-kenyas-entire-electricity-grid/">handle additional power</a>. This includes corresponding efforts at regular, systematic maintenance work. Without these, any extra power generated from renewable and other energy sources will remain costly and wasted.
Yet another note of caution is in order. Demand from Kenya’s domestic consumers remains low even though a <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">total of 5.8 million customers</a> now have connections to power – a <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">five-fold increase</a> in the past seven years.
Why is this the case?
Neither a lack of connectivity nor an unreliable supply is to blame for the low consumption of electricity by the vast majority of Kenyan consumers. Nor is it because of reportedly <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">relatively high electricity tariffs</a>.
Rather, it is simply because the majority of Kenyans still have low income levels. Many Kenyans simply <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235272851530035X">cannot afford</a> the luxury of modern appliances for cooking, heating or refrigerating.
This simple fact has neither been figured into government prognostications nor donor-driven last-mile connectivity scenarios.
<h2>Grappling with reality</h2>
Over two years ago, after Kenya signed an MOU with China to explore building a nuclear power plant, <a href="http://www.kenyaengineer.co.ke/2016-05-27-10-44-22/political-engineering/item/2093-why-kenya-should-avoid-the-nuclear-option">I argued</a> that sober analysis was required prior to walking further down that path. The situation remains the same today.
This is not a question of whether or not Kenya would be a responsible nuclear power producer. Indeed, all indications are that national nuclear electricity board (KNEB) and other relevant government agencies have acted scrupulously and responsibly.
Nevertheless, both the board as well as the international nuclear agency, the IAEA, should honestly conclude – and then publicly announce – that Kenya does not have a need for nuclear power.
Adding extremely expensive nuclear power to Kenya’s energy mix along with power from <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-the-new-government-should-do-to-help-kenya-meet-its-energy-needs-85436">other inadvisable projects</a> such as the Lamu coal power plant is arguably inexcusable as well as profligate. Lamu is expected to produce 5,000MW of power within a period of three years.
As such, Kenya needs to work overtime to set a power generation agenda that identifies real versus perceived needs. The country’s electricity agenda must not be driven by estimated consumption figures that fail to correspond to the true energy needs. <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Kenya-in-the-dark-over-perfect-power-mix/996-3830352-v7gyra/index.html">In the words of</a> a former Kenyan energy official,
<blockquote><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89313/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />It does not take much effort to notice the gap between what is on paper and the economic reality.</blockquote>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendon-j-cannon-422778">Brendon J. Cannon</a>, Assistant Professor of International Security, Department of Humanities and Social Science, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/khalifa-university-1103">Khalifa University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-kenyas-push-for-nuclear-power-rests-on-false-or-fanciful-premises-89313">original article</a>.
http://cnbc.africa/news/southern-africa/2015/08/14/s-africas-nuclear-power-secrecy/
http://cnbc.africa/news/east-africa/2015/09/02/kenya-nuclear-energy-power-shortages/

SA is not alone in its nuclear ambitions, Kenya has them too

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Nigeria&#8217;s Minister of state for Petroleum Resources Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu says OPEC and Russia are fairly aligned on extending a deal among 24 nations to curb oil output. CNBC caught up with him ahead of today&#8217;s OPEC meeting.

Russia

Russia, OPEC aligned on extending output cuts – Nigeria oil minister

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Nigeria&#8217;s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu says OPEC and Russia are fairly aligned on extending a deal among 24 nations to curb oil output. CNBC caught up with him ahead of today&#8217;s OPEC meeting.

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Kenya’s recent elections were manipulated by the malicious use of big data. There are also allegations that Russia meddled in the appointment of Donald Trump as US president. And who is responsible?

The dark side of big data

Danny Bradlow | University of Pretoria
The formation of the BRICS – the bloc made of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – was supposed to be the harbinger for a new approach to global economic governance. The leading emerging markets and developing countries were becoming major players in the global economy. And they expected to play a commensurate governance role.
BRICS leaders have now been meeting annually for nine years. They recently met for the ninth BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China. They have positioned themselves as a force for transforming global economic governance so that it’s more responsive to the concerns of developing economies. They are seeking a more just and equitable global economy.
The question is: how effective have they been in reforming global economic governance and the fairness of the global economy?
The honest answer is that as a group, BRICS hasn’t been an effective force at all. This is for a number of reasons.
<h2>What’s not happened</h2>
The following examples illustrate the point.
At least formally the G20, which consists of 20 major economies including the five in BRICs, has supplanted the G7, made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US, as the premier forum for global economic governance. But the agenda in these meetings is still largely set by the most powerful countries which now include China but not the other BRICS.
The IMF and World Bank have both changed their voting arrangements to give a louder voice to developing economies and emerging economies. This has particularly benefited China, India and Brazil. But BRICS hasn’t supported South Africa’s call for a third African seat on the board of the IMF. This has left Africa as the most underrepresented region on the board.
BRICS countries, together with other G20 developing countries, have become more active participants in organisations responsible for developing international financial regulatory standards. This means that they now can participate in the writing of standards that guide the international financial system. But the system continues to be more responsive to the interests of the rich and powerful than those of the developing world.
New international financial institutions have been created, including the BRICS’ New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, which provides financial support for BRICS countries experiencing balance of payments problems. Unfortunately, the New Development Bank operates in a less transparent and less accountable way than other multilateral development banks. For example, it’s harder for outsiders to access information on the operational policies and practices of the bank than those of the World Bank or the African Development Bank. Unlike those other banks, there isn’t yet a mechanism to hold the New Development Bank accountable if it causes harm.
The New Development Bank also risks repeating the tragic mistakes of these other institutions, which for many years concentrated only on economic issues in their operational decision making. Following a number of scandals they began to pay more attention to the social, human rights and environmental impact of their operations.
Members of the New Development Bank seem to share this concern. The BRICS leaders have reiterated their commitment to achieving
<blockquote>sustainable development in its three dimensions &#8211; economic, social and environmental- in a balanced and integrated manner.</blockquote>
But it’s hard to see how they expect the bank to meet this commitment if it continues to place more emphasis on speed in project implementation than on identifying and managing the adverse environmental, human rights and social effects of its projects. To fulfil their commitment to promote a more just and equitable global economy the BRICS will need to up their game.
<h2>How to fix the problem</h2>
Achieving a just and equitable international economic order requires governments to take seriously their commitment to protect and promote human rights as set out in the UN Charter and other human rights treaties.
The starting point is a commitment to respect and promote the rights of each individual affected by each project, programme or policy that governments undertake or support. This requires developing a good system to forecast the impact of a project on the environment, society as well as human rights. And to have a plan to manage them.
Another element is accountability. Any person adversely affected by a project should have access to a mechanism that can provide them with an effective remedy.
Finally, the relevant decision makers must be able to show how their proposed activity is using the maximum available human and financial resources to fulfil the human rights of all the people affected by their decisions. This suggests that the relevant decision makers bear the burden of explaining why the proposed allocations are the most feasible. This includes governments, international organisations as well as private parties.
There are reasons to think the BRICS leaders could be persuaded to adopt a human rights based approach to making global economic governance more democratic and responsive to the needs of developing countries and for a more just, equitable and sustainable global economy. They, and their colleagues in other developing countries, are governing societies with continuing, and some cases worsening poverty, inequality, unemployment and environmental degradation levels. And they don’t seem to have an effective strategy for meeting this challenge.
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This article was first published in The Conversation.

BRICS needs a new approach if it’s going to foster a more equitable global order

Patrick Bond |University of the Witwatersrand
At the BRICS summit in Russia two years ago, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping invoked physics when asking fellow leaders “to boost the centripetal (unifying) force of BRICS nations through cooperation in innovation and production capacity to boost competitiveness.”
That was the theory, but the economic reality of the once-feted Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa alliance is contradictory.
Instead of centripetal strengthening, the world is witnessing much more powerful centrifugal dividing forces, including overproduction, over-indebtedness and deglobalisation of capital. These elements have been spinning out of control even before the chaotic era of US President Donald Trump began.
Over production is mostly found in the coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, cement and chemicals industries. It’s largely driven from China where over-capacity is more than 30%, according to a new International Monetary Fund report that also raised worries about the country’s vast debt.
Over borrowing by companies, states and households represents a global crisis in the making. The Institute of International Finance has just reported that world debt is now USD$217 trillion (327% of world GDP), up from USD$149 billion (276%) in 2007.
Deglobalisation is simply the reversal &#8211; mostly since 2008 &#8211; of prior rapid growth in cross-border trade, investment and finance. Should that be viewed as a bad thing? Rather than fear globalisation’s unravelling, leading scholar-activists including Samir Amin in Africa, the late Ruy Mauro Marini in Latin America, Walden Bello in Asia and the 20th century’s most important economist, John Maynard Keynes, have all advocated national economic sovereignty. If pursued cleverly, deglobalisation could be the basis for restoring links between once vibrant sectors subsequently destroyed by imports.
Could BRICS leaders evolve in this direction? Their summit next week will be distracted by geopolitical tensions. Although a welcome deal on Monday prevents the feared Sino-Indian border war, a much more durable geo-economic battle is unfolding in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which in May left Prime Minister Narendra Modi boycotting China’s Belt and Road mega-conference three months ago.
Beijing’s BRICS logo designers, perhaps being unconsciously subversive, have illustrated how the once overlapping, interlocking BRICS are now being wedged apart as paper thin subjects of centrifugal forces. For Africa, fewer illusions in these economies would be welcome, given how exploitative the BRICS and their firms have become against societies, democratic movements and environments.
<h2>A counter-summit challenges the BRICS</h2>
This argument is made by the Hong Kong People’s Forum, initiated by the city’s progressive labour, intellectual and faith leaders to question the BRICS. Their meeting this weekend follows in the counter summit traditions of the 2013 brics-from-below in Durban, the 2014 Dialogue on Development in Fortaleza, and the 2016 Goa People’s Forum on BRICS.
According to the Hong Kong People’s Forum:
<blockquote>Instead of offering an alternative, the BRICS actually offer a continuation of neo-liberalism. On top of BRICS there is also China’s new mega project, the Belt and Road initiative whose main purpose is to export China’s surplus capital.</blockquote>
These surpluses are vast, as witnessed in China’s foreign reserves which recently topped USD$4 trillion, though then fell 20% due to bouts of capital flight and two stock market crashes in 2015-16.
<h2>Deglobalisation</h2>
Global trade, finance and investment were meant to be the motors for the advancement of BRICS. But according to the World Bank, global trade peaked at 61% of world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 but retreated to 58% in 2015.
During the 1990s each BRICS country raised its trade to GDP ratio by at least 10 points. But trade has receded in importance in each of the BRICS. Russia peaked first at a 69% trade/GDP ratio in 1999, and then fell steadily to 45% today. Brazil rose to 30% in 2004 and fell to 25%. China soared to 66% in 2006 and has since plummeted to 36%. South Africa’s 2008 ratio was 73% but is now back to 60% and India peaked last, in 2012 with 56%, and is now at 40%.
On top of this, the ratio of world financial assets that are held overseas compared to GDP fell from 58% in 2008 to 38% in 2016, even as overall financial assets increased in line with soaring debt.
Finally, another deglobalisation symptom is the halving of relative global foreign direct investment: from 3.7% of world GDP in 2008 to 1.7% in 2016.
Leading financiers now talk of an imminent world recession, given over priced stock markets and corporate debt. This is not just due to wild New York share speculation, as also occurred before the crashes of 1987, 2000 and 2008. Three BRICS stock markets are also bubbling: South Africa’s stock market is 90% higher than in 2010, India’s market is up 70% and Russia has risen by 50%.
<h2>Centrifugal realities crowd out centripetal fantasies</h2>
These dangerous centrifugal forces cannot be easily regulated or reversed. The only recent relief came from the Chinese state’s massive urban construction investments (albeit leaving scores of near-empty cities) and the Indian service sector boom. But since 2015 the other three BRICS have suffered recessions as the crash in commodity prices hit home.
As the Hong Kong People’s Forum statement explained:
<blockquote>China has now evolved into a global engine promoting a neo-liberal agenda from free trade agreements to corporate led integration across borders.</blockquote>
The BRICS had promised to challenge an unfair global economic system. But in December 2015 their main multilateral reform strategies failed:
<ul>
<li>the Paris Climate Accord was non-binding, unambitious and outlaws climate-debt lawsuits by victims of Western and BRICS emissions;</li>
<li>the World Trade Organisation phased out any semblance of food sovereignty; and</li>
<li>IMF voting shares were shifted to favour BRICS at the expense of poorer countries.</li>
</ul>
Adds the Hong Kong People’s Forum: “The 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos was one site where Xi clearly took the lead in promoting world corporate power, as Trump leads the US-UK retreat into crony-capitalist protectionism.”
South African President Jacob Zuma pronounced last month at his party’s policy congress, “The ANC is part of the global anti-imperialist movement. We are historically connected with the countries of the South and therefore South-South cooperation such as BRICS is primary for our movement.”
If centrifugal economic forces now pressuring the bloc overwhelm Xi’s desired centripetal capitalism, then we can expect yet more talk-left walk-right politics, as the BRICS sub-imperialists desperately try to pretend they’re anti-imperialists.
&nbsp;
This article was first published in The Conversation.

BRICS is being battered by global crises: why this might not be a bad thing

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One of the news flows from today&#8217;s OPEC meeting in Russia is that Nigeria has voluntarily committed to limit its oil output at 1.8 million barrels per day.

Nigeria confirms ready to cut oil output

Libya and Nigeria may attend a joint meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC this month, Russia&#8217;s energy minister said on Monday, as oil producers look for ways to cap rising production to help support oil prices.
Both nations have boosted production since they were exempted from an OPEC-led deal to cut output, weighing on global prices LCOc1. This has prompted more talk among producers about including them in the pact.
&#8220;We have spoken to (OPEC Secretary General Mohammad) Barkindo and in the next two weeks there will be conversations with them (Libya and Nigeria) and possibly we will invite them to the technical summit,&#8221; Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Istanbul.
Six ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC nations including Kuwait, Venezuela, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Oman will meet on July 24 in St Petersburg, Russia, to discuss the current situation in the oil market.
This group, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, could recommend expanding the pact to the wider group, which holds its next meeting in November.
The ministerial talks will be preceded by a meeting of a technical committee involving all OPEC and non-OPEC members currently participating in the oil output-cutting deal.
Both Nigeria and Libya were given exemptions to the supply cut, under which OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers are reducing their output by about 1.8 million barrels per day because their output has been curbed by conflict.
OPEC delegates have said bringing Nigeria or Libya into the production pact would likely focus on capping their output, rather than asking them to cut their supply so soon after it had recovered from involuntary curbs.
Nigeria&#8217;s oil minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu has said that Nigeria was not opposed in principle to joining OPEC&#8217;s production cap, but would have to wait and see if production returned to acceptable levels.
The minister is not planning to attend the Russian talks because he already has another ministerial-level meeting scheduled at home in Abuja, a source familiar with his schedule said.
OPEC has not been in touch with Libya on the issue of capping the country&#8217;s output, an OPEC delegate said. The Libyan government has not received an invitation to attend the ministerial meeting in Russia, he added.
In comments to Reuters on Monday, the head of Libya&#8217;s National Oil Corporation did not indicate any willingness to cap output yet, saying Libya&#8217;s humanitarian problems must be considered in any talks on the subject.
NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla added Libya could assist with efforts to stabilize the market by informing OPEC about its plans to restore production.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; editing by Jason Neely and Louise Heavens)

Libya, Nigeria may attend OPEC, non-OPEC July meeting: Russia

BEIJING (Reuters) &#8211; Foreign ministers from BRICS nations called for the use of &#8220;preventative diplomacy&#8221; to tackle the situation on the Korean Peninsula, according to a communique on Monday.
The ministers from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa met in Beijing for a two-day conference that ended on Monday. BRICS leaders will meet in the southern Chinese city of Xiamen in September.
&#8220;The foreign ministers support the use of political and diplomatic means to resolve disputes in Libya and on the Korean Peninsula, and the promotion of preventative diplomacy built on common consensus,&#8221; the communique said, according to a version posted on the Chinese foreign ministry website.
The document also condemned unilateral military interventions and economic sanctions that violate international law or internationally accepted norms.
Addressing the ministers after the meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that BRICS cooperation was entering a &#8220;golden decade&#8221;.
&#8220;At present the international situation has complexities and also factors of instability and it is right for the BRICS to speak their voice,&#8221; he said.
Tensions on the Korean peninsula have escalated over North Korea&#8217;s nuclear and missile tests and its vow to develop a nuclear-tipped weapon capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. The United States has called for greater action from China to pressure Pyongyang into abandoning its weapons programmes.
China has said repeatedly that it adheres to United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea but does not support unilateral sanctions, instead calling for restraint and diplomacy.
China&#8217;s top diplomat Yang Jiechi is due to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Washington on Wednesday in talks that the United States says will focus on curbing North Korea&#8217;s nuclear and missile programmes.
Last week, Tillerson said Washington was considering imposing &#8220;secondary sanctions&#8221; on foreign firms doing business with North Korea and had been in discussions with Beijing about the activities of entities inside China.
Libya fell into turmoil following the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and now an array of armed groups and competing governments are vying for control.
(Reporting by Christian Shepherd: Editing by Neil Fullick)

BRICS foreign ministers call for diplomacy to tackle Korean tensions

Theories about Donald Trump’s colluding with the Russians in the 2016 election are as plentiful as the 128,824,224 people that voted in it. We’ll find out who’s right and wrong soon enough, though.
But guilty or innocent, there’s a big, bad, murderous herd out there that wants to stomp him straight into the ground. The herd is sprawling and on the move, kicking up dust everywhere. And it’s comprised of all kinds of beasts.
Democrats livid at losing the White House and Republicans resentful of losing their party to an outsider. The media. Progressive lawyers and judges. Academia, Hollywood and anyone else who is still raging over a Trump presidency. And they’re all snorting and grunting furiously as they dig their hooves deep into the dirt, readying themselves for an all-out, frenzied impeachment stampede. This will be a spectacle for the ages.
Because trampling Donald Trump is how Chuck Schumer and the rest of the herd plan to retake the White House. You know the old saying; if you can’t beat him, stomp him.
<h3>High stakes Russian roulette</h3>
Incredibly, just five short months into his term, Trump is already facing off in a high-stakes game of Russian roulette with the newly appointed special prosecutor, Robert Mueller. Special prosecutors are wired to find something bad. That’s their job description. And they have few constraints and unlimited resources which make them even deadlier.
Now, as Mueller and Trump sit down at the table, the world anxiously sits on the edge of their seat waiting to see if there’s a bullet in the chamber. But still, Trump needs to have actually broken the law and Mueller needs to prove it. And as Mueller readies his troops, Trump is preparing to do what he’s done for a lifetime in New York. Slug it out. He’s all lawyered up and working the back channels of Washington for whatever support he can muster.
I have to assume, though, that Las Vegas is giving him pretty long odds to win the fight. He has thousands of enemies and few allies. And there are a lot of very angry and powerful bulls in the herd, intent on getting back what they believe is rightfully theirs. And now, they’re outraged as hell and thundering en masse towards the White House.
But whether Trump is impeached or not, just being dragged through an excruciating special investigation in front of the entire world will likely be enough to assure Trump a single-term presidency. Even if he is exonerated, it’s hard to imagine being accused of something as shocking as colluding with the Russians, and then winning reelection in 2020. Today, thanks to social media, if you’re accused of something it’s nearly as good as being guilty of it.
Because the accusation is the headline that people always remember. And unlike the Watergate scandal during Nixon’s presidency, which only appeared on the 6PM evening news and in the morning newspapers, Russia-gate will be in your face, and on your iPhone, around the clock.
<h3>Outrage delivers eyeballs</h3>
So, whether Trump is actually guilty of a crime or not almost doesn’t matter. The herd doesn’t care. They want him gone at any cost and are going to make a lot of noise. Because, here, in the post-truth era, a good outrage story in the news means people are watching and reading. And the media loves that because outrage delivers eyeballs. Watching Chuck Schumer or Tom Perez throw a hissy-fit on CNN or MSNBC over a Trump tweet insulting Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama makes for a great news cycle. Real, fake, or otherwise.
Trump vs. Mueller vs. Russia vs. Comey vs. Flynn vs. the Democrats is the best pure political outrage story since Richard Nixon walked off the cliff in 1974. For the Republicans, if Trump is ultimately impeached, it will be the political equivalent of a nuclear reactor meltdown that makes the surrounding area uninhabitable for decades to come, or even longer. It will render the GOP toxic and unelectable in the 2018 midterms and beyond. And the herd knows it.
<h3>The E.U. is outraged too</h3>
In the middle of all this, and just to keep things interesting, Trump is wreaking havoc on the other side of the Atlantic too. He just flipped the bird to our NATO allies and told them the U.S. is no longer the bank and to pay up what they owe. He’s not actually wrong there, but the delivery could’ve been a little softer. The European Union, in general, is outraged too. After a meeting with Trump the other day, Germany’s Angela Merkel lamented, “The times when we could fully rely on others are finished.” Then she added that the Europeans “needed to take our fate into our own hands.”
Closer to home, Mexico and Canada are watching anxiously as NAFTA hangs in the balance. Right about now, Justin Trudeau and Enrique Peña Nieto probably see Trump like the scary new neighbor who just moved in next door who they suspect might be a serial killer.
So, all is not well for Donald Trump. I don’t see how he can possibly win this fight. Guilty or not, he’s going to be publically gutted in the process and will be damaged goods not only in the U.S., but on the world stage as well. Unfortunately, history will remember him as the proverbial bad guy &#8211; the villain dressed in all black with the handle-bar moustache and the six-shooter. That story is already being written. Right or wrong, true or false.
So, the herd is growing and on the march. And irrespective of the outcome, just by virtue of going through an investigation, or worse, a possible impeachment process, the U.S. is headed down a jagged and slippery slope that, in the end, will only serve to further cleave the country in two.
Author: David S. Levin, Managing Partner, Nexus Capital Markets, LLC
&nbsp;

Op-Ed: Stomping Trump out of the White House

Ken Dilanian, Peter Alexander and Courtney Kube
<div class="embed-container image">
<div class="caption">White House senior advisor Jared Kushner (C) sits alongside U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (2nd L) as they prepare to meet with Saudi Arabia&#8217;s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and the Saudi delegation at the Royal Court in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia May 20, 2017.</div>
</div>
<div class="group">
<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/jared-kushner/" target="_self">Jared Kushner</a>, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/donald-trump/" target="_self">the president</a>&#8216;s son-in-law and one of his senior advisers, has come under FBI scrutiny in the Russia investigation, multiple U.S. officials told NBC News.
Investigators believe Kushner has significant information relevant to their inquiry, officials said. That does not mean they suspect him of a crime or intend to charge him.
The FBI&#8217;s scrutiny of Kushner places the bureau&#8217;s sprawling counterintelligence and criminal investigation not only on the doorstep of the White House, but on the cusp of the Trump family circle. The Washington Post first reported last week that <a class="inline_asset" title="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/19/a-white-house-official-close-to-trump-is-a-significant-person-of-interest-in-russia-probe-wapo.html" href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/19/a-white-house-official-close-to-trump-is-a-significant-person-of-interest-in-russia-probe-wapo.html" target="_self">a senior White House official close to Trump was a &#8220;person of interest,&#8221;</a> but did not name the person. The term &#8220;person of interest&#8221; has no legal meaning.
<a class="inline_asset" title="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jared-kushner-now-under-fbi-scrutiny-russia-probe-say-officials-n764826" href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jared-kushner-now-under-fbi-scrutiny-russia-probe-say-officials-n764826" target="_self">Read the full NBC News report here.</a>
</div>

Jared Kushner Now Under FBI Scrutiny in Russia Probe, Say Officials: NBC

The New Development Bank recently held its <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=160274">second annual meeting</a> in the Indian capital of New Delhi to discuss the sustainability of financing development projects in its member states.
The multilateral bank was established by the BRICS states of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. With headquarters in Shanghai, China, it was created to support emerging economies and provide an <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-brics-countries-just-launched-a-rival-to-the-imf-and-world-bank-2015-7">alternative to the domination</a> of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
But the new bank is already proving to be a replication of the Bretton Woods institutions. This can be seen through the <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/european-development-bank-strikes-pact-with-new-development-bank-117040300784_1.html">partnerships</a> the new bank is forming as well as its operating posture.
It’s also showing bias towards the development of Asian countries. This is evident from its funding patterns and the recent proposed <a href="https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703221051849196-brics-enlargement-plan/">enlargement of the BRICS bloc</a>. The list of proposed additions includes Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Nigeria, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. All except three are Asian.
The proposed expansion of the BRICS countries has been justified as a move to <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/brics-plus-can-be-new-model-of-integration-8700388">strengthen the bloc</a> and fill the void created by rising protectionism in the US. But it has been met with mixed reactions even among member countries. India, for example has expressed its disapproval that BRICS “plus” is China’s ploy to <a href="https://timesofislamabad.com/china-to-include-pakistan-in-brics-plus-ignoring-indian-concerns/2017/03/13/">cut New Delhi’s influence</a> in the group by roping in more pro-China countries.
The New Development Bank’s business as usual and its bias towards Asia suggests that it will not become an alternative source of finance. It will not address the key areas of needs for emerging economies like human capital development, poverty alleviation and basic healthcare.
<h2>More of the same</h2>
The New Development Bank was set up as an <a href="http://www.paragkhanna.com/home/new-brics-bank-building-block-alternative-world-order">alternative</a> to the World Bank and IMF which are viewed to be <a href="http://thoughtleader.co.za/sentletsediakanyo/2008/07/09/can-we-trust-the-west-imf-world-bank-etc/">pushing western agendas</a>. It was to provide a development model that would be sensitive and beneficial to emerging economies. But it’s quickly abandoning this mandate and falling into the trap of operating like the institutions it was created to replace.
In September 2016 the New Development Bank <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/2016-09-09-world-bank-and-new-development-bank-sign-mou-to-boost-partnership/">signed partnership deals</a> with the World Bank to co-finance projects. The agreement also aims to facilitate knowledge and staff exchanges. This puts the bank in bed with the institutions it was established to counter.
The bank has also signed memorandums of understanding with the <a href="http://www.ebrd.com/news/2017/new-development-bank-ebrd-affirm-mutual-goals-agree-cooperation.html">European Investment Bank</a>, <a href="http://www.ndb.int/borrowings/memorandum-understanding-new-development-bank-european-bank-reconstruction-development/">European Bank for Reconstruction and Development</a>, <a href="https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/news/2017/20170401_001.html">the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a> and <a href="http://www.ndb.int/press_release/new-development-bank-international-investment-bank-sign-memorandum-understanding-develop-cooperation/">the Eurasian Development Bank and the International Investment Bank (IIB)</a>. The agreements cover co-financing of infrastructure projects, the bulk of which are in Asia.
Perhaps the foundations of the bank were faulty from the start. Its <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-03-31-00-brics-joins-the-reigning-world-order">original designers</a> were two former World Bank chief economists, Joe Stiglitz and Nick Stern. Given this history, it’s possibly never going to challenge the world financial order.
Today, the New Development Bank is pushing the <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/brics-bank-should-focus-on-small-scale-investments-117033001495_1.html">corporate-led development model</a> just like the World Bank, the IMF and other Bretton Woods institutions. Their investments are profit-oriented which tends to undermine social justice. Thus similar to the World Bank and IMF, the New Development Bank seems more focused on protecting its investments at the expense of saving the interests of the BRICS citizens.
Over the past decade, the corporate led model has impoverished many people in emerging economies, particularly in Asia. It has led to <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-seeds-of-suicide-how-monsanto-destroys-farming/5329947">farmer suicides</a>, <a href="http://www.herinst.org/BusinessManagedDemocracy/government/privatisation/banks.html">large-scale privatization</a>, <a href="https://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/the-three-sisters-and-other-institutions/the-world-bank/49476-dodging-world-bank-schizophrenia-the-looting-on-africa-continues.html">natural resource looting</a> and <a href="http://projects.huffingtonpost.com/worldbank-evicted-abandoned/how-worldbank-finances-environmental-destruction-peru">environmental degradation</a>.
<h2>Funding so far</h2>
The New Development Bank has so far made loans of <a href="http://www.ndb.int/projects/list-of-all-projects/">$811 million to entities</a> in four BRICS countries towards energy infrastructure. Of this $300 million went to Brazil, $81 million to China, $250 million to India, and <a href="http://thebricspost.com/brics-bank-announces-first-set-of-loans/#.WQN5ePmGPIU">$180 million to South Africa</a>.
For South Africa, the bank has so far not provided any meaningful opportunity to obtain additional finance. The loan of $180 million (R2.6 billion) was given to South Africa’s power utility Eskom to develop 670 MW of power generation and 500 MW worth of renewable energy projects involving <a href="http://www.sabc.co.za/news/a/a239fb804c72c32d96d9df3b0fa74342/EskomundefinedgetsundefinedR2.6blnundefinedNDBundefinedloanundefinedforundefinedrenewableundefinedenergy-20161804">independent power producers</a>. This <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/energy/2017-01-16-eskom-distorts-facts-about-renewable-energy-group-claims/">unnecessary loan</a> to an inefficient state owned entity has only contributed to BRICS’s power over South Africa by adding onto the current contingents <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2017-03-31-the-brics-bank-green-energy-gordhan-and-the-guptas/">liabilities</a> dollar-based loans that the government has guaranteed for the next 12 to 20 years.
<h2>Weaknesses</h2>
There are weaknesses in the way in which the New Development Bank works that also raises questions about its intent.
First, the bank’s activities are often shrouded in secrecy. There are no clear official records available to the public about the bank’s activities, decisions and operational guidelines. Analysts have to rely on secondary and tertiary information sources.
Second, the bank is yet to present any socio-economic redress and environmental operational guidelines for communities. This would ensure that its funding does not lead to displacement, evictions, ecological destruction, loss of livelihoods and threats to the basic right to life. These issues have recurred for decades due to <a href="http://projects.huffingtonpost.com/worldbank-evicted-abandoned/how-worldbank-finances-environmental-destruction-peru">projects funded</a> by other multilateral development banks.
Lastly, as a co-financier with development institutions like the World Bank, the bank’s seriousness about promoting transparency, accountability and probity remains questionable.
To strengthen its relevance to emerging economies, the New Development Bank must review the much criticised, inequitable representation of developing countries, especially from Africa. It must also focus more on small-scale investments rather than large-scale infrastructure projects. These often lead to exclusion of people and communities, and aggravate existing vulnerabilities rather than bringing about development.

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Russia

Brics Business Council’s Onkar Kanwar optimistic about summit

BRICS in Africa, what you need to know

The questions to ask when measuring the success of the BRICS summit

Top models team up to fight sexual harassment

Football star Samuel Eto’o’s gift for African street players

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Russia, OPEC aligned on extending output cuts – Nigeria oil minister

Russia, OPEC aligned on extending output cuts – Nigeria oil minister

The dark side of big data

BRICS needs a new approach if it’s going to foster a more equitable global order

BRICS is being battered by global crises: why this might not be a bad thing

Nigeria confirms ready to cut oil output

Libya, Nigeria may attend OPEC, non-OPEC July meeting: Russia

BRICS foreign ministers call for diplomacy to tackle Korean tensions

Op-Ed: Stomping Trump out of the White House

Jared Kushner Now Under FBI Scrutiny in Russia Probe, Say Officials: NBC

BRICS bank is offering more of the same rather than breaking the mould

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