In the wake of the global COVID-19 crisis, the <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/04/07/how-the-imf-is-responding-to-africa-amid-the-covid-19-crisis/">International Monetary Fund (IMF)</a> Executive Board has approved immediate debt service relief to 25 poor and vulnerable countries.



Nineteen African countries will receive immediate debt service relief, including Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, D.R., The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone and Togo.



The following statement provides more details:



April 13, 2020



Washington, DC – Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the following statement:



“Today, I am pleased to say that our Executive Board approved immediate debt service relief to 25 of the IMF’s member countries under the IMF’s revamped Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) as part of the Fund’s response to help address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.



“This provides grants to our poorest and most vulnerable members to cover their IMF debt obligations for an initial phase over the next six months and will help them channel more of their scarce financial resources towards vital emergency medical and other relief efforts.



“The CCRT can currently provide about US$500 million in grant-based debt service relief, including the recent US$185 million pledge by the U.K. and US$100 million provided by Japan as immediately available resources. Others, including China and the Netherlands, are also stepping forward with important contributions. I urge other donors to help us replenish the Trust’s resources and boost further our ability to provide additional debt service relief for a full two years to our poorest member countries.”



The countries that will receive debt service relief today are: Afghanistan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, D.R., The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Togo, and Yemen.



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

IMF approves immediate debt relief for 25 countries amid COVID-19 crisis

IMF approves immediate debt relief for 25 countries amid COVID-19 crisis. shutterstock_94083223

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The International Monetary Fund has approved the payment of funds to a number of African countries such as Ghana, Senegal and Mozambique, under the Rapid Credit Facility which is set to help countries deal with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ridle Markus, Africa Strategist at ABSA Corporate and Investment Banking joins CNBC Africa for more.

IMF approves funds to Ghana

IMF approves funds to Ghana, Senegal & Mozambique to fight COVID-19

By Louw Nel – Political Analyst



Islamist extremist militants have carried out a spate of attacks targeting villages in the northern Cabo Delgado province on April 6 and 7.



According to reports, armed groups attacked the villages of Bilibiza, Meangalewa, Miengueleua, Muatide, Mueda, Muidumbe, and Ntchinga over two days, burning churches and buildings and abducting people in different locations. No one is believed to have been killed in the attacks.



This follows two incidents on March 23 and 25, in which militants launched brazen attacks and briefly occupied the towns of Mocímboa da Praia and Quissanga.



The first of those attacks was claimed by the Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) militant group, but groups active in the province since 2017 have also been referred to as Al-Shabab and Ansar al-Sunna, among others.



There are no conclusive links between the Mozambican jihadists and foreign-based Islamist extremist groups, and their motives and leadership structure remain unclear.



Mozambican authorities, alarmed by the attacks on Mocímboa da Praia and Quissanga and the threat they represented to the development of offshore natural gas finds, responded by saying that reinforcements were being deployed to Cabo Delgado.



This has clearly not succeeded in containing the threat posed by militants; however, the most recent attacks are more consistent with the groups’ modus operandi. Indeed, the attacks in March represented a significant escalation due to the size of the towns attacked and the fact that security forces had been stationed in both locations.



The more recent attacks targeted more familiar undefended, civilian locations, although Bilibiza is only 34km from Quissanga.



The escalation in Islamist militant activity in Cabo Delgado, along with depressed natural gas prices and concerns over the global coronavirus pandemic, will threaten proposed LNG projects.



Should the deteriorating security environment in the region result in the postponement or even reversal of investment decisions, Mozambique’s medium-term growth prospects will be seriously undermined.

Mozambique records first COVID-19 death

Op-Ed: Mozambique – Islamist militants continue attacks in Cabo Delgado

NKC African Economics expects the coronavirus-related knock to economic
growth in Africa’s three largest economies alone to shave off 1 ppt from the
continent’s GDP growth this year, from 3.8% to 2.8%. 



Preliminary estimates point towards the weakest continental growth
since the early 1990s.



The continent’s three largest economies, South Africa, Nigeria and
Egypt – together accounting for just under 60% of African GDP – will see a
significant weakening in economic growth this year. 



This slowdown in economic activity will permeate through the
continent as these countries are salient drivers behind economic growth in
their respective regions.&nbsp; 



In addition to the indirect effects stemming from weakness in the
largest economies, other African nations will also have to deal with a much
more volatile external economic environment. 



The collapse in tourism will weigh on economic growth in many
countries (particularly the island nations, Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia), while
a reduction in both export demand and commodity prices will weaken fundamentals
in Africa’s more export-oriented economies (most notably the oil producing
nations).&nbsp; 



The escalation in the Covid-19 outbreak in Africa implies there is
a lot more at stake than foregone economic production. 



Most African countries will not be able to effectively implement
the severe restrictions on movement that we have seen globally. The
impracticality of implementing widespread self-quarantine in shantytowns or
informal settlements means that this will not be an option. Mismanagement of
the situation could lead to human costs far exceeding economic losses.



Tourism is a key forex generator and employment creator across the
continent. Severe travel restrictions, border closures and lockdowns in key
source markets will result in a collapse in tourism during the first half of
the year, at least. 



Domestic and intra-Africa tourism have been key drivers behind
growth in overall tourism in recent years, but as more Covid-19 cases are
confirmed on the continent we will see an increase in domestic travel
restrictions and regional border closures. 



The island nations will be hardest hit, but the mainland will feel
the effects in the North (particularly in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt), South
(Namibia, Botswana), East (Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya) and West (Côte d’Ivoire,
The Gambia, Cameroon). 



Low barriers to entry have led to tourism becoming a key source of
employment. The island nations in particular are dependent on tourism to
generate employment, most notably the Seychelles (where tourism accounts for
around 44% of formal employment), Cape Verde (39%) and Mauritius (19%). 



Tourism has also become a salient job creator on the African
mainland, and a slump in the sector could result in rapid job losses given the prevalence
of micro- and small-sized enterprises operating in the sector.&nbsp; 



The slowdown in global economic activity will translate into a
reduction in demand, while lower commodity prices will compound this negative
effect on exports. 



Africa’s energy exporters will struggle to come to terms with a
much more hostile external environment. Countries such as Nigeria, Angola and
Gabon are highly dependent on oil exports not only to generate forex but also
to fund government spending. 



Countries including Namibia, Zambia, Botswana and Mozambique are
dependent on mineral exports for the same reasons. 



Generally speaking, countries that have a GDP structure orientated
towards exports will feel the pain of a weaker external environment.



Lower international energy prices will have a detrimental impact
on the continent’s oil exporters, but many other countries stand to benefit. 



A reduction in the oil imports bill will have a favourable impact
on external balances while also containing consumer price inflation. Lower
inflation will support consumer spending at a time when a weak external
environment increases the importance of domestic consumption in driving overall
economic growth.&nbsp; 



The South African economy had already entered 2020 on a very
fragile footing before the dramatic external developments related to the
Covid-19 pandemic. NKC forecasts a 5% real GDP contraction this year. Domestic
policy uncertainty and supply-side constraints have now been accompanied by a
deterioration in global business sentiment and a drop in demand for South
African goods, all weighing on the country’s economic recovery prospects. 



In addition, the three-week long nationwide lockdown, which
commenced on March 27, will result in a collapse in consumer spending. The
outlook could deteriorate further if the lockdown is extended.&nbsp; 



The coronavirus has not as yet, as far as we know, taken
significant hold in Nigeria. However, the weaker external environment and more
specifically, the recent collapse in international oil prices, will have a
marked impact on the economy’s performance this year.



Lower oil prices will result in tighter FX liquidity, rising
inflation, falling investment, lower fiscal expenditure and easing consumption
growth. 



As a result, NKC has revised its growth projection sharply lower
to 1.2% this year, with risks still firmly stacked to the downside. 



A more severe domestic outbreak of Covid-19 would cause
significant disruption to daily economic activity, particularly when
considering the population density in the country’s biggest cities. 



Despite the Egyptian government’s efforts, the number of confirmed
Covid-19 cases continues to rise considerably. 



The president has urged all citizens to stay at home for a two-week
period and a night-time curfew has been declared, while the possibility of a
formal lockdown in some regions is also circulating in local media. 



The fiscal deficit is set to widen significantly over fiscal year
(FY) 2019/20 and FY 2020/21 following the announcement of a stimulus and
bail-out package to the value of approximately E£100bn. 



Government revenues already came in far below budget during the
first half of FY 2019/20 and will take a massive knock during the second half
of the fiscal year, which ends in June. 



Lower economic growth reflects weaker consumption, investment, and
exports. 



The recently announced fiscal stimulus measures, however, should
prevent a collapse in domestic demand. 



The economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic will be
considerable, but the human costs will be higher yet. 



As of end March South Africa remains the hardest-hit African
country from a confirmed-case perspective and the expected economic hardship
reflects this. 



However, South Africa is also arguably the best-placed country on
the continent to deal with the pandemic. While it does have a large
immuno-compromised population due to its struggles with HIV, the country might
be able to leverage its sophisticated private healthcare sector to supplement
inadequate public services. 



Most other African nations will not have this benefit. 



Confirmed Covid-19 cases will undoubtedly increase across the
continent in coming weeks, and timely and effective government responses will
be required to ensure that this does not become another African tragedy.



Jacques Nel – Head of Africa Macro



For more coverage on COVID-19 visit: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/">https://www.cnbcafrica.com/covid-19/</a>

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

Op-Ed: African giants to stumble due to Covid-19 pandemic

MAPUTO (Reuters) &#8211; Militant group Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an attack in northern Mozambique just south of the site of gas projects worth $60 billion being developed by the likes of Exxon Mobil and Total. 



Insurgents attacked the town of Mocimboa da Praia on Monday, briefly occupying some areas and its army barracks before being pushed out on Tuesday, Mozambique authorities and security analysts said. 



Islamic State claimed the attack through its Amaq news agency, which said dozens of soldiers and police officers had been killed or injured. The government has not provided a figure of dead or injured. 



“Military sources told Amaq that Islamic State fighters attacked five army and police barracks in the town,” the agency said in Tuesday’s report, adding that weapons, ammunition and other equipment had also been seized. 



Government spokesman Filimao Suaze said the retreating attackers had left a “trail of destruction and dead bodies”, and that security had been beefed up in the area. 



While Islamic State has claimed a spate of recent attacks in the northernmost province of Cabo Delgado, home to the gas developments following one of the biggest gas finds in a decade off its coast, Tuesday’s claim of responsibility is the first matched by rare official confirmation of an attack. 



The government does not acknowledge such claims, however. 



Mocimboa da Praia, 60 kilometres (37 miles) south of the gas projects, previously served as the main airport for international workers flying into the developments and its port is used for cargo deliveries. 



Exxon and Total did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment sent outside usual business hours. 



NGOs say the government must do more to protect the mostly poor civilians in the area and step up transparency. 



“This violent escalation in Mocimboa da Praia is the culmination of a tragic failure by the Mozambican government to protect the people in this volatile area,” said Muleya Mwananyanda, rights group Amnesty’s deputy director for east and southern Africa.



“For almost three years, armed groups have been attacking villagers around Cabo Delgado, causing untold human suffering without being held accountable.” 



The organisation said about 350 people have been killed since 2017, but many estimate a much higher figure. More than 900 people have been reported killed, says a non-government body, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. 



(Reporting by Manuel Mucari in Maputo and Emma Rumney in Johannesburg; Additional reporting by Nayera Abdallah in Cairo; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)



This article was first published on Reuters Africa <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN21C0TY-OZATP">https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN21C0TY-OZATP</a> and is republished with its permission.

Islamic State claims Mozambique attack close to gas projects

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The Export Credit Insurance Corporation of South Africa plays a key role in facilitating trade across the continent and recognising opportunities for their clients. Senior Economist, Sindiso Ndlovu, spoke to CNBC Africa about ECIC&#8217;s involvement in big projects across borders.

ECIC’s Sindiso Ndlovu on why Mozambique is attractive to SA investors

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The Export Credit Insurance Corporation of South Africa plays a key role in facilitating trade across the continent. By providing export insurance to South African companies, they are able to unlock opportunities for their clients that would otherwise be difficult to achieve. CEO, Kutoane Kutoane spoke to CNBC Africa about the South African export industry and the vital role the company plays in growing.

ECIC CEO: Why Mozambique’s LNG project is a big deal for SA companies

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 16 (Reuters) &#8211; The United Nations World Food Programme said on Thursday that a record 45 million people in the 16-nation Southern African Development Community faced growing hunger following repeated drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray.



Southern Africa is in the grips of a severe drought, as climate change wreaks havoc in impoverished countries already struggling to cope with extreme natural disasters, such as Cyclone Idai which devastated Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in 2019.



Zimbabwe, once the breadbasket of southern Africa, is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a decade, marked by soaring inflation and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and electricity.



&#8220;This hunger crisis is on a scale we&#8217;ve not seen before and the evidence shows it&#8217;s going to get worse,&#8221; the WFP&#8217;s Regional Director for Southern Africa, Lola Castro, said in a statement.



&#8220;The annual cyclone season has begun and we simply cannot afford a repeat of the devastation caused by last year&#8217;s unprecedented storms.&#8221;



The agency plans to provide &#8220;lean season&#8221; assistance to 8.3 million people grappling with &#8220;crisis&#8221; or &#8220;emergency&#8221; levels of hunger in eight of the hardest-hit countries, which include Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini and Malawi.



To date, WFP has secured just $205 million of the $489 million required for this assistance and has been forced to resort heavily to internal borrowing to ensure food reaches those in need, it said.



In December, the United Nations said it was procuring food assistance for 4.1 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the population of a country where shortages are being exacerbated by runaway inflation and climate-induced drought.



&#8220;Zimbabwe is in the throes of its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with 7.7 million people – half the population – seriously food insecure,&#8221; the agency said.



In Zambia and drought-stricken Lesotho, 20% of the population faces a food crisis, as do 10% of Namibians.



Castro said that if the agency does not receive the necessary funding, it will have no choice but to assist fewer of those most in need and with less.



(Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Jon Boyle and Giles Elgood)

UN food agency says record 45 million people across Southern Africa face hunger

By Emma Rumney



JOHANNESBURG, Jan 7 (Reuters) &#8211; Russian bank VTB is suing a Mozambique state-owned company over $535 million it extended as part a series of loans now at the centre of a $2 billion debt scandal.



An online court filing dated Dec. 23 shows VTB has lodged a lawsuit in Britain&#8217;s High court against the Mozambique state and Mozambique Asset Management, which borrowed the money from VTB as part of a costly project that U.S. authorities say was an elaborate front for a bribery and kickback scheme.



VTB had been in talks with the southeast African country over restructuring the loan, which the deputy head of VTB Capital&#8217;s legal department said in October represented a &#8220;significant exposure&#8221; for the bank.



&#8220;An agreed restructuring remains our preferred outcome but after 3 years of discussions with no tangible progress VTB must now consider all options available to it for a resolution,&#8221; VTB said in an emailed statement.



Mozambique&#8217;s Attorney General&#8217;s Office said it was waiting for formal notification of the lawsuit.



The court filing said the case relates to &#8220;general commercial contracts and arrangements&#8221; but no further information was available, other than that VTB Capital, the investment banking arm of VTB, is being represented by law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer.



The debt scandal has already sparked a series of court cases spanning London, New York and South Africa, ensnaring global investment bank Credit Suisse, three of its former bankers, Mozambique&#8217;s former finance minister and a past president&#8217;s son.



However this is the first time any of the cases have involved VTB, which is more than 60% owned by the state. It comes despite an increasingly close relationship between Russia and Mozambique, with President Filipe Nyusi visiting Russia twice last year and a series of agreements between Maputo and Moscow.



Credit Suisse and VTB provided or arranged a total of around $2 billion for the project, encompassing tuna fishing, maritime security and shipyard development. Hundreds of millions of dollars went missing, while the benefits never materialised.



Mozambique did not disclose some of the loans, which were guaranteed by the state. The International Monetary Fund and other donors cut off support when they came to light in 2016, triggering a currency collapse and sovereign debt default.



It remains on the hook for the money, the largest chunk of which now sits in a restructured eurobond. The country is trying to challenge the guarantee related to a $622 million loan from Credit Suisse, also in a London court.



The Jubilee Debt Campaign, which calls for the cancellation of unjust or unpayable debts of the poorest countries, said Mozambique should not have to pay a cent towards the loans, which were guaranteed without the approval of Mozambique&#8217;s parliament.



&#8220;The loan guarantee was in clear breach of Mozambican law, and the lenders, companies and politicians involved should all be held to account for their role in the deal,&#8221; Sarah-Jane Clifton, the campaign&#8217;s director, said.



(Additional reporting by Tatiana Voronova in Moscow; Editing by Lisa Shumaker, Kirsten Donovan)

This African country is being sued by Russia’s VTB over loan in $2 billion debt scandal

MAPUTO, Oct 29 (Reuters) &#8211; Mozambique&#8217;s main opposition party Renamo on Tuesday appealed the result of the Oct. 15 general election, calling on the country&#8217;s top court to annul incumbent President Filipe Nyusi&#8217;s victory.



Nyusi and his ruling Frelimo party won big in the election, which was hoped would calm tensions in Mozambique, soon to become a top global gas exporter. Instead, the contested result has stoked divisions as opposition parties have cried foul.



&#8220;We want the election results to be annulled because they were not elections. They were a caricature, a circus show,&#8221; Venâncio Mondlane, a Renamo representative, told Reuters by phone.



&#8220;Today we filed the appeal to the Constitutional Council (CC) against the deliberation of the National Election Commission, which we do not agree with. We demand that the CC annul the election results,&#8221; Mondlane said.



It was hoped the election could set the seal on a fragile peace pact, designed to put a definitive end to four decades of violence between Frelimo and Renamo.



The two fought a 16-year civil war that ended in a truce in 1992 but have clashed sporadically since.



Renamo had wanted to win control of a number of provinces in Mozambique&#8217;s centre and north but came away empty handed. 



(Reporting by Manuel Mucari; editing by Grant McCool)

Mozambique’s main opposition party plans to appeal election result

By: Mateus Magala, Vice-President of Corporate Services and Human Resources at the African Development Bank



Economic reforms, a burgeoning middle class and regional diversity against the background of the new African Continental Free Trade Area &#8211; are making Africa’s Portuguese-speaking countries a hotspot for investor interest. Additionally, new tools – such as the Development Finance Compact for Lusophone Africa – give investors and lenders more comfort to enter into these markets.



The six African countries called “PALOPs”, their
Portuguese acronym – Angola, Cabo Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea,
Mozambique and São Tomé e Principe – are very diverse. They range from
Equatorial Guinea, Africa’s richest country per capita, to lower income economies;
from Angola’s and Mozambique’s populations of over 30 million to Cabo Verde’s
and São Tomé’s, of less than one million; and from southeastern Africa to the
northwest of the continent.



These states also share important traits. They have a
common heritage and language. As independent states, they have fostered trade ties
with Portugal and Brazil, among others.&nbsp;
And, most importantly for our current consideration they have all
recognized that they must do more to unleash the potential of the private
sector in their countries.&nbsp; The private
sector here faces constraints, ranging from lack of affordable financing to
difficulties in project preparation. The good news is that the PALOP governments
are determined to tackle these issues – with the help of their partners, such
as the African Development Bank. 



In November 2017, Bank President Akinwumi Adesina
visited Lisbon for discussions on how Portugal and the Bank could work in a more
integrated manner. Out of this meeting emerged a vision for a new partnership,
one that is open to other partners: the Development Finance Compact for
Lusophone Africa.&nbsp; Signed at the November
2018 Africa Investment Forum, its goal is very simple: to accelerate the
diversified, sustainable and inclusive growth of the private sector in the six
PALOPs. And it is completely focused on transactions to deliver practical
results on the ground. 



How does the Lusophone Compact propose to do this? Put simply, it is
results-based and focused on two types of interventions: financing and risk
mitigation from the partners for specific private sector and public-private
sector partnership (PPP) investments in the PALOPs; and technical assistance
projects that enable the private sector or specific investments, such as project
preparation and access to finance. It is operationalized through
country-specific Compacts, with concrete targets, that have been signed for
each PALOP. 



For its part, Portugal
has made available €400 million in guarantees in 2019 to back Bank financing
for private sector and PPP projects in the PALOPs.&nbsp; And the Bank is contributing its own
financing as well as resources for the administration of the Lusophone
Compact.&nbsp; Additionally, it is important
to stress that the PALOPs themselves are equal partners in this initiative:
they have a responsibility to work on enabling the private sector investments
in their countries, and the Compact also seeks to leverage intra-PALOP
investments and sharing of best practices.&nbsp;
Finally, we are encouraged that other states and development finance
providers want to join or partner with the Lusophone Compact.



This brings me back to
the initial point: now is the time to invest in Lusophone Africa. 



Angola and Equatorial
Guinea have both embarked on ambitious programs to diversify their economies
away from natural resources. Mozambique, which is beginning to receive massive
investments related to the natural gas sector, also recognizes the need to grow
sectors like agribusiness and industry, to increase employment.&nbsp; Cabo Verde, already a middle-income country,
is seeking to diversify its economy too – attracting new types of tourists
while also growing its fishing and agribusiness sectors. São Tomé e Principe
and Guinea-Bissau, members of the Alliance of Small Island States, seek
sustainable investments that both promote growth and deal with their exposure
to climate change, including through the so-called “blue economy”.&nbsp; &nbsp;



All of these countries
are determined to increase trade, both among themselves and within their
regions, which include Africa’s largest economies. 



That is why the PALOP’s
are eyeing the 2019 Africa Investment Forum – the unique investment marketplace
for regional investments, pioneered by the African Development Bank last year.



A specific panel on Investing
in Lusophone Africa at this year’s Forum will shine the spotlight on these
opportunities. And, just as last year, numerous Board Room sessions will
involve projects in the PALOPs – including at least four that are eligible
under the Lusophone Compact. 



The African Development Bank is proud to be part of
this new dawn for the continent’s Portuguese-speaking economies. And we invite
you to join us.

Op-Ed: It’s time to invest in Portuguese-speaking African countries, here’s why

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Mozambicans will gather at the voting polls today as the hotly contested elections kicked off this morning .The ruling Frelimo Party is expected to take the lead and extend its decades-long rule over the country.

Mozambique decides: Here are the issues Mozambicans had in mind when voting

By Gary van Staden, Head of Research, NKC African Economics. 



Mozambique goes to the polls next Tuesday, October 15, against a backdrop of new investment plans that would significantly improve the country’s economic growth outlook, but also some concern over the possibility of conflict in what is guaranteed to be a disputed outcome.



Presidential,
regional, and national elections are likely to see incumbent President Filipe
Nyusi returned to office, while his ruling Mozambique Liberation Front
(Frelimo) is expected to gain a majority in the national assembly. Some
regional governors, however, may well fall to the opposition Mozambique
National Resistance (Renamo). 



The
presidential race requires an absolute majority, or a second round of voting
will be needed. As things stand, Mr Nyusi may narrowly avoid a run-off given
that Frelimo managed close to 52% of the vote in last year’s local authority
elections, although comparisons between presidential preferences and local
polls would be a stretch.



The
only guaranteed outcome is that Renamo will dispute the results as they have
done for every election since 1994 – usually without any substantive evidence
of misconduct. The problem is that the continuous allegations of rigging and
fraud increase the political temperature, and violence is always a potential
consequence. 



The
other issue is that Renamo has a social media network that works to generate
expectations of misconduct even before the elections are held. 



Make
no mistake, elections in Mozambique are far from perfect. While flawed and
often disorganised, the outcome of elections tends to reflect the will of the
people and usually qualifies for the ‘substantially free and fair’ verdict from
observers. That does not always quell the anger of the losers.



A
more significant problem for Renamo is the potential for infighting to cost it
at the polls. The internal squabbles over leadership and other issues preceded
the death of long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama but have escalated dramatically
since his demise, even resulting in a breakaway by some Renamo fighters who
rejected the leadership of Ossufo Momade and the recently signed peace deal
with the Frelimo government. 



While
the renegade bandits are not regarded as a serious threat, they remain capable
of disruption. A more serious threat comes from a larger body of discontent in
Renamo over the same leadership and policy issues as well as electoral
disagreements. All this plays into Frelimo’s hands.



Recent
announcements by Exxon Mobil highlighting plans to invest more than $500m in
the initial construction phase of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) project has
provided a welcome boost for Mr Nyusi and Frelimo, with the project expected to
pump much-needed cash into the economy. 



Media
reports this week stated that the US oil company’s $30bn Rovuma LNG project,
jointly operated with Italy’s Eni, has a capacity of more than 15 million
tonnes a year (mtpa). The Exxon project, along with Total’s $20bn 13 mtpa
facility and Eni’s $8bn 3.4 mtpa floating plant, means Mozambique will have the
ability to export 31 mtpa of natural gas – about 10% of today’s global market,
Reuters reports. 



The
massive investments into northern Mozambique will fundamentally alter the
socio-economic and political environment of the often-troubled northern
provinces, but at the same time provide an incentive to grapple for a slice of
the pie. Violence by Islamic extremists in the northern province of Cabo
Delgado has resulted in some 200 deaths over the past two years, prompting
Maputo to enlist the assistance of Russian para-military to help quell the
problem.



These
issues – along with the renegade Renamo bandits, the alarming killing of an
electoral official (allegedly by members of a police unit in the
Frelimo-stronghold Gaza province), and the spread of allegations of voter
numbers being inflated – are creating tensions and concern over conflict before
and after the polls. We expect at least some measure of conflict over the next
few days and weeks, mainly because the environment is once again being primed
for such conflict from several quarters – including media. 



Once
again, Mozambique goes to the polls next week amid the same concerns,
allegations, expectations, and predictions that have accompanied the polls for
the past two decades. We expect nothing different this time. Frelimo and Mr
Nyusi are expected to retain power, with a worst-case scenario for the
president of a run-off. If the run-off is avoided, then whatever sporadic and
limited conflict that may get sparked should die down. 



Frelimo
has not always covered itself in glory, but the massive investment and
opportunity for growth and development now afforded in the north must not be
squandered, and this election could be a new beginning.

Op-Ed: While Mozambique’s Frelimo is the favourite it will be no cakewalk

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On the 15th of October Mozambique will be holding their general elections. However, the run up to the elections has been chaotic with dozens of attacks and killings on political campaigners, leaving analyst with the fear of elections not being free and fair. Joining CNBC Africa for more is Nathan Hayes, Mozambique Analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

This is what’s at stake as Mozambicans head to the polls

MAPUTO (Reuters) &#8211; U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil will finalise its investment in Mozambique&#8217;s lucrative liquefied natural gas fields in a signing ceremony on Tuesday, the African country&#8217;s government said via state television. 



Exxon&#8217;s Rovuma LNG project, jointly operated with Italian firm Eni, will produce, liquefy and sell natural gas from three reservoirs located in the Area 4 block offshore Mozambique&#8217;s northern coast. 



Exxon estimates the fields, which are due to come on line in 2024, will cost $30 billion to develop. 



State television news channel TVM on Sunday said the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy would host a signing ceremony with Exxon and other firms in the capital Maputo on Tuesday. 



Exxon has said it expects 17,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per year during the production phase, with the signing of an initial investment decision paving the way for the massive infrastructure project to begin. 



The gas fields are located off the coast of the northern Cabo Delgado province, which for the last two years has seen intensifying attacks on surrounding communities and government buildings by an extreme Islamist militant group.



In February Texas-based petroleum firm Anadarko said one worker was killed and several others injured in two related attacks in the Cabo Delgado area where it is building a 17,000-acre liquefaction complex. 



(Reporting by Manuel Mucari; writing by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

US gas giant Exxon to finalise LNG investment in Mozambique next week, what you need to know

PARIS (Reuters) &#8211; French oil major Total has completed the acquisition of Anadarko’s 26.5% stake in Mozambique’s liquefied natural gas project for $3.9 billion, Total said on Monday, in a deal expected to raise much-needed revenue for Mozambique.



“Mozambique LNG is a one of a kind asset that perfectly fits with our strategy and expands our position in liquefied natural gas,” Total chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanne said in a statement.



Anadarko has agreed to be taken over by Occidental Petroleum Corp. Anadarko led a liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique, but was replaced by Total after the French oil major agreed to buy Anadarko’s African assets for $8.8 billion as part of the Occidental takeover.



Total will be the main operator of Mozambique LNG with a stake of 26.5%. ENH Rovuma Área Um, S.A. will own 15%, Mitsui E&amp;P Mozambique Area1 Ltd will hold 20%, ONGC Videsh Ltd, Beas Rovuma Energy Mozambique Limited and BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. will all each have 10%, while PTTEP Mozambique Area 1 Limited will have 8.5%.



Total said closing operations for Anadarko assets in Algeria, Ghana and South Africa were still ongoing.



It added that nearly 90% of the Mozambique LNG production has already been sold through long-term contracts with key LNG buyers in Asia and in Europe.



The project is expected to come into production by 2024.



The Mozambique government is targeting $880 million in capital gains tax from the takeover of Anadarko Petroleum by Occidental, local newspaper O Pais reported last week.



Mozambique’s economy has been hobbled by a debt scandal in recent years, which prompted donors to cut off funding and deterred investors.



The southern African nation is banking on its massive natural gas reserves to lift millions out of poverty.



Reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky

Oil major Total has completed the purchase of Anadarko’s Mozambique LNG asset, what you need to know

By Gary van Staden, Head of Research, NKC African Economics.



Mozambique’s elections – due in less than a month – will go ahead as planned despite threats by a splinter group of Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) fighters who have defied the party leadership and vowed to step up its violence unless campaigning for the upcoming polls is suspended. There are no plans on the part of the government to suspend campaigning or delay the vote.



Fresh
elections are due on October 15 and the splinter group of disgruntled fighters
who lost January elections for a new leader following the death of long-time
boss Afonso Dhlakama have threatened to step up their banditry activities that
(to date) include two messy and unsuccessful attempts to hijack vehicles and
kidnap the occupants. 



The
new peace agreements implemented on August 1 by President Filipe Nyusi, leader
of the governing Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), and Renamo leader
Ossufo Momade, required Renamo’s armed wing to disband (for the second time),
where members could either retire with a government pension or join the
national army.



Renamo’s
coercive capacity has dwindled to almost nothing following the death of
hardliner Mr Dhlakama, leaving a few disgruntled groups of fighters to continue
to resort to sporadic violence. 



Among
them was a renegade self-appointed ‘general’, Mariano Nhongo, who has falsely
claimed in several interviews to be ‘chief’ of Renamo’s armed wing. That was
never the case according to Southern African Development Community (Sadc)
sources. 



“We
do not acknowledge the recently signed peace treaty. An election will not take
place. Anyone who makes calls for elections should know: We will kill him,” Mr
Nhongo told foreign media while also claiming to be the legitimate leader of
Renamo having previously threatened to kill Mr Momade. 



Mr
Nhongo claimed to command some 500 troops, but Sadc intelligence and security
sources believe the number to be significantly lower and that these troops are
the dregs of the former armed wing and not very well trained. 



Nevertheless,
the commander continued his threats, saying that should the election
campaigning continue, “our attacks will continue”. He claimed that his fighters
had been responsible for two recent attacks on the vehicles of provincial
heavyweights in central Manica which left a total of four people injured.
Gunmen attacked two cars along the main N6 road from Beira to Chimoio. 



Some
media reports stated that the attack took place in the village of Zimpinga,
Gondola district, Manica – a Renamo zone of influence. Others said that police
had arrived on the scene, relatively swiftly ending the attack and foiling an
apparent attempted kidnapping. 



Speculation
that the actives of this splinter group, which must now operate outside any
formal Renamo structures or logistical or other support, have a capacity to
destabilise the elections, let alone the country, are fanciful and far-fetched.




The
evidence rather suggests a ragtag outfit of disgruntled fighters unable or
unwilling to accept the terms of the peace agreement. However, that does not
mean they are harmless. 



Sporadic
attacks on unarmed motorists could unfortunately result in fatalities. 



Mozambique
seldom runs perfect elections and the debates over legitimacy will resurface
before, during, and after the polls. But elections have tended to express the
will of the people and we doubt any Renamo splinter group will have much impact.

Mozambique

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