* Colombia&#8217;s downgrade to junk puts focus on others
* COVID has caused record rise in global debt
* Upgrades elsewhere this year bring hope worst is over
By Marc Jones
LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) &#8211; Colombia&#8217;s loss of its S&amp;P Global investment grade status last week has not only raised the usual question of who is next but also whether the number of countries seemingly being spared points to a moving of the ratings goalposts.
Being stripped of one&#8217;s investment grade credit rating &#8211; which can push up borrowing costs &#8211; is chastening for any government, but Colombia is by no means alone.
Over the past decade Brazil, South Africa, Turkey along with more than half a dozen others have become &#8220;fallen angels&#8221;, as a demotion to junk is known in rating agency parlance, and COVID-19 pressures mean plenty more are in danger.
Fitch and Moody&#8217;s both have India and Romania on warnings. Fitch also has Colombia, Panama and Uruguay on its watchlist and although tiny Curacao is the only one left on S&amp;P&#8217;s, 10 more countries are on the precarious BBB-minus last investment step albeit with &#8216;stable&#8217; outlooks.
On the face of it, it doesn&#8217;t look good for many of them. India stands out with an eye-watering 90% debt-to-GDP burden, but all except for Romania now have debt ratios well above the 55% average for a BBB minus-rated country.
Median interest payments are also expected to be considerably higher in emerging markets this year. Fitch reckons this to be equivalent to 2.5% of GDP compared to 1.2% in major economies and if COVID-19 continues, recoveries will be delayed.
However, despite all the gloomy numbers, financial market investors who use credit default swaps (CDS) to insure against debt problems, don&#8217;t seem to think that any of these countries are about to suffer the chop.
A year ago, CDS were pointing to India, Colombia as well as Indonesia and Mexico with its giant $130 billion bond market, all being demoted to &#8220;junk&#8221;. All are now trading at levels suggesting they will retain their investment grades.
&#8220;There is no magic debt-to-GDP number that automatically triggers a downgrade. It just doesn&#8217;t work like that,&#8221; explained Moody&#8217;s Chief Credit Officer for EMEA Colin Ellis.

Being cut to junk can automatically exclude government or corporate bonds from certain high-profile investment indexes and set off a wave of problems by driving up borrowing costs.
In contrast to last year&#8217;s blizzard of cuts when the main firms cut between 25%-30% of the countries they rate, Moody&#8217;s has upgraded roughly three times as many as it has downgraded this year. S&amp;P has made 50% more upgrades when corporates are included too.
&#8220;When it is a something like a short sharp shock, sometimes it is appropriate to look through the noise,&#8221; Ellis added, highlighting how COVID has caused most countries up to six months of acute economic pain compared to the nearly 18 months the 2007-2008 financial crisis lasted.

ALL RISE
The task of deciphering impact from noise can run the risk of inconsistencies.
Colombia, which said last week it would work to maintain market confidence in its finances, should have been feeling hard done by, analysts at Barclays say.
S&amp;P had only reaffirmed its investment grade a month ago and even with its tax plan problems, the government&#8217;s 65% debt-to-GDP ratio will be well below India&#8217;s 90% or the 85% of Croatia which had its BBB- rating reaffirmed on Friday.
The 15-percentage point jump in its debt ratio since COVID has also been smaller than the near 20-percentage point rise Romania has seen, yet S&amp;P has just taken Romania off its downgrade warning.
Italy, whose debt level is on course to top 150% of GDP this year, has had its rating lifted by S&amp;P.
&#8220;There is a broad issue that rating agencies seem to be giving a lot of countries the benefit of the doubt,&#8221; said one of fund manager M&amp;G&#8217;s &#8220;bond vigilantes&#8221;, Eldar Vakhitov, who sees Romania as a prime example.
S&amp;P had put Bucharest on its downgrade warning back in 2019 citing concerns its budget deficit was increasing from 3% to 4.5% of GDP. Yet it didn&#8217;t follow through even when it jumped to 9% of GDP in 2020 and was projected to be 7% this year.
One of S&amp;P&#8217;s top sovereign analysts, Frank Gill, noted that Romania&#8217;s new government has backed off from major pension increases. More generally, with so much uncertainty over how COVID will leave economies, it makes sense to give some benefit of the doubt where possible.
Fitch&#8217;s managing director for global sovereigns and supranationals, Tony Stringer, also pointed out recently https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fitch-wait-until-next-year-make-final-covid-19-judgments-2021-04-14 that the fact that almost all countries&#8217; debts have risen means that individual countries haven&#8217;t stood out in how bad they look.
Fitch forecasts that global government debt will reach $95 trillion by 2022, a record 40% increase in nominal terms compared with the pre-COVID level of 2019.
&#8220;When you have a crisis that impacts all countries, some of those indicators on the relative scale are all going to move together &#8211; so it creates a bit of a cushioning effect for ratings,&#8221; Stringer said last month.
For other observers though, that acceptance of high debt sits awkwardly. Ratings are specifically designed to judge countries&#8217; ability to repay their debt and history shows the higher the debt, the greater the risk of running into difficulties.
&#8220;It&#8217;s like saying, sorry, officer, you cannot give me a ticket, everyone else was speeding too,&#8221; said S&amp;P&#8217;s former head of sovereign ratings Moritz Kraemer.
(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
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ANALYSIS-COVID may be shifting ratings goalposts

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Barloworld has reported a 424 per cent jump in headline earnings per share for the six months ended March.

Barloworld sees earnings surge

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Investec declared a 7.5 pence final dividend, when it reported a lower than expected 14.7 per cent decline in annual profit. This is thanks to factors including growth in loans and funds under management. Investec CEO, Fani Titi joins CNBC Africa for more.

Investec CEO on full-year earnings

Investec CEO on full-year earnings, economic optimism amid vaccine rollout

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/italian-2-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404593" width="716" height="478" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/italian-2-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/italian-2-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/italian-2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/italian-2.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px" /><figcaption> &nbsp;Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi Photo via flickr</figcaption></figure>



Leaders of the world&#8217;s largest economies kicked off a global health summit on Friday, where drugmakers were expected to promise cut-price supplies of vaccines for poorer nations to help end the COVID-19 pandemic.



The Group of 20 nations looked set to call for voluntary licensing and technology transfers to enable a rapid increase in vaccine production, but will sidestep a push from the United States and other nations to waive valuable patents for shots.



The European Union will also promise to set up vaccination manufacturing hubs in Africa, which faces a dearth of doses.



The one-day virtual event, hosted by G20 president Italy and the European Commission, is billed as the first major summit to focus on ways to overcome the health crisis, which has killed millions, and prevent future such disasters.



&#8220;As we prepare for the next pandemic, our priority must be to ensure that we all overcome the current one together. We must vaccinate the world, and do it fast,&#8221; Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said in an opening speech.



While inoculation campaigns are in full swing in many developed nations, helping trigger a dramatic fall in new cases, very few shots have reached less developed countries, where the virus is still raging, sometimes out of control.



An array of leaders, including the presidents of China, India, France and South Africa, are due to address the meeting along with the heads of multinational organisations, the U.S. philanthropist Bill Gates and numerous health experts.



However, U.S. President Joe Biden is not listed among the speakers, organisers said.



The Biden administration earlier in May backed calls from many developing countries for a waiver of patents for COVID-19 vaccines, in the hope that would boost production and allow for a more equitable distribution of shots across the globe.



AFRICA HUBS



However, the draft final declaration seen by Reuters does not mention such a mechanism, which has been contested by some European nations, who have instead called for the removal of U.S. trade barriers that they consider the main bottleneck preventing a ramping up of vaccine production.



Looking to broaden supply chains, Europe will announce during the meeting that it will set up at least three manufacturing hubs in Africa this year to boost long-term production of vaccines, one EU official told Reuters.



The official said drugmakers including Pfizer and BioNTech would announce large supplies of at-cost COVID-19 vaccines to poor nations to try to redress a global imbalance.



On Friday The GAVI Vaccine Alliance said it had agreed to buy 200 million doses of Johnson &amp; Johnson&#8217;s vaccine, as it seeks to fill a big shortfall in its vaccine-sharing programme.



In her opening speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe would donate at least 100 million doses to poorer nations by the end of the year.



The world leaders look set to recognise the importance of the so-called ACT-Accelerator, a tool of the World Health Organization (WHO) to distribute COVID-19 vaccines, drugs and tests across the world.



However, dashing initial expectations, they look unlikely to commit to fully fund the programme, which is still $19 billion short of achieving its goals.



Leaders are likely to say that one option to help poorer nations is sharing vaccines that wealthy countries have already purchased, but there are no firm commitments on this in the final text.



The WHO co-led COVAX program, which is dedicated to equitable global vaccine distribution, is mentioned as one option for providing donated doses to countries. 



(Reporting by Crispian Balmer in Rome and Francesco Guarascio in Brussels; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

italian

G20 health summit looks to boost vaccine access, drugmakers to offer cut-price shots

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="435" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1208080781-820x435.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-397285" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1208080781-820x435.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1208080781-300x159.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1208080781-768x407.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1208080781-1536x814.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1208080781-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Panoramic View of Dubai Skyline at Sunrise</figcaption></figure>



DUBAI, May 18 (Reuters) &#8211; Dubai expects to attract over 5.5 million overseas visitors this year, hopeful that new markets can help make up for the loss of visitors from key places where travel is restricted.



Dubai had 5.5 million overseas visitors last year, when the tourism sector was pummelled by the coronavirus pandemic. In 2019, 16.7 million tourists visited.



Visitors from India, traditionally Dubai&#8217;s top source market, are largely banned from the United Arab Emirates due to the latest outbreak in the South Asian nation.



Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, Dubai&#8217;s third biggest source market in 2019, has barred direct flights and requires travellers from the UAE to hotel quarantine.



But Dubai Tourism Chief Executive Issam Kazim said visitor numbers from newer markets in Europe, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) were performing well.



&#8220;All of these markets will start to add up and hopefully fill the gaps and give us a much stronger foundation to build a confident rebound going forward,&#8221; he told Reuters at the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai



The Middle East city reopened its borders to international visitors last July and was a popular holiday spot over the New Year with many other global destinations shut off due to the pandemic.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="How Dubai plans to bring back tourism hit hard by the pandemic" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VvOH5bp2r3U?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div><figcaption>How Dubai plans to bring back tourism hit hard by the pandemic</figcaption></figure>



But the influx of foreign tourists coincided with a second wave of coronavirus infections across the UAE and led Dubai to tighten capacity restrictions on hotels and restaurants.



Many of those restrictions were eased this week.



Kazim cited a high rate of testing in UAE as the reason behind the rise in case numbers, arguing that the more people are tested the more infections will be uncovered.



The number of infections in the country have now fallen from a daily peak of 3,977 in February to roughly 1,300. Figures for each emirate are not disclosed by authorities.



Dubai is also expecting Expo 2020, which runs from October to March after being delayed by the pandemic last year, to be a draw for many tourists who have never visited before.



Expo organisers said before the coronavirus outbreak the event could attract 11 million foreign visitors, though Kazim said on Tuesday that the pandemic now made it difficult to predict numbers.



In the UAE&#8217;s north, the smaller Ras Al Khaimah emirate expects 915,000 visitors this year, a 14% increase on 2020 but still down from 1.1 million in 2019.



&#8220;I am cautiously optimistic that we will probably do better than that the way things are travelling but there is so much uncertainty,&#8221; Ras Al Khaimah Tourism Development Authority CEO Raki Phillips told Reuters.



(Reporting by Alexander Cornwell, editing by Ed Osmond)



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

Dubai Marina from the sea side during sunset

Dubai targets over 5.5 mln overseas tourists this year

In conversation with Made In Africa Chairman Kojo Annan

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/uhuru-1-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-403941" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/uhuru-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/uhuru-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/uhuru-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/uhuru-1.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>President Uhuru Kenyatta Photo via flickr</figcaption></figure>







Kenya&#8217;s High Court ruled on Thursday that a drive by President Uhuru Kenyatta to change the constitution was illegal, stopping what his critics have called a political move designed to check his deputy, whom he has fallen out with publicly.



Parliament has already passed the proposed amendments, popularly known as the Building Bridges Initiative, which mark the biggest change to the East African nation&#8217;s government structure since a new constitution was adopted in 2010.



But issuing a ruling on several challenges lodged by various parties, a five-judge bench of the court said Kenyatta had used a constitutional provision reserved for citizens to initiate the changes, making the process illegal.



&#8220;The president cannot be both player and umpire in the same match,&#8221; said Jairus Ngaah, one of the judges.



The government, which wants to hold a referendum after Kenyatta signs the bill into law, said it will appeal the ruling.



Kenyatta says the bill promotes the sharing of power among competing ethnic groups to reduce cyclical election violence and is not targeting anyone.



It will create 70 new constituencies, return the role of cabinet ministers to elected members of parliament, and create several powerful new posts: a prime minister, two deputies and an official leader of the parliamentary opposition.



Kenyatta initiated the changes with the backing of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, after the two made peace in January 2018 following a divisive presidential election the previous year in which the president beat Odinga.



The rapprochement isolated Kenyatta&#8217;s deputy, William Ruto, who wants to succeed his boss when he steps down next year after serving the constitutionally allowed two, five-year terms.



The constitutional amendments are partly designed to tame Ruto&#8217;s political ambitions, by making it possible to cobble together an alliance against him, said John Githongo, a prominent anti-graft campaigner.



&#8220;It is very clear that some of these alignments are to sideline him,&#8221; he said.



Ruto&#8217;s allies have loudly opposed the constitutional changes bill in parliament and outside.



&#8220;I don&#8217;t think we have a constitutional problem in Kenya… the biggest problem in Kenya is an economic problem,&#8221; Ndindi Nyoro, a pro-Ruto lawmaker, said on the local Citizen TV.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

uhuru

Kenyan court slams brakes on president’s constitutional changes

Chicago corn futures fell to a more than one-week low on Thursday, as concerns about tight supplies were tempered after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged a U.S. stocks forecast above market expectations.



Wheat and soybean prices were also weaker with a stronger dollar adding to downward pressure on prices.



The most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were down 1.9% to $7.01-1/4 a bushel by 1109 GMT, near the session low of $6.98-1/2, its lowest since May 5.



Analysts said corn was under pressure from the USDA report, but said losses were checked by scepticism about the figures.



&#8220;Obviously the USDA&#8217;s forecasts carry considerable weight. Much of the market though views these numbers as optimistic,&#8221; said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.



The USDA projected U.S. 2021/22 corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels, up from 1.257 billion bushels expected at the end of 2020/21, and above the average analyst estimate in a Reuters poll for 1.344 billion bushels.



The most-active wheat futures were down 0.8% at $7.23-3/4 a bushel.



Public holidays in much of Europe, including France and Germany, limited market participation on the continent.



Consultancy Strategie Grains kept unchanged its monthly forecast for soft wheat production in the European Union this year as a weather-related reduction for France was offset by favourable prospects in the southeast of the bloc.



The most-active soybean futures were down 0.4% at $16.35-3/4 a bushel, extending a retreat from a September 2012 high of $16.67-1/2 hit on Wednesday.



The USDA projected U.S. 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, roughly in line with trade expectations and up only slightly from the 120 million bushels expected at the end of 2020/21, a seven-year low.



 (Additional reporting by 



Chicago corn futures fell to a more than one-week low on Thursday, as concerns about tight supplies were tempered after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged a U.S. stocks forecast above market expectations.



Wheat and soybean prices were also weaker with a stronger dollar adding to downward pressure on prices.



The most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were down 1.9% to $7.01-1/4 a bushel by 1109 GMT, near the session low of $6.98-1/2, its lowest since May 5.



Analysts said corn was under pressure from the USDA report, but said losses were checked by scepticism about the figures.



&#8220;Obviously the USDA&#8217;s forecasts carry considerable weight. Much of the market though views these numbers as optimistic,&#8221; said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.



The USDA projected U.S. 2021/22 corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels, up from 1.257 billion bushels expected at the end of 2020/21, and above the average analyst estimate in a Reuters poll for 1.344 billion bushels.



The most-active wheat futures were down 0.8% at $7.23-3/4 a bushel.



Public holidays in much of Europe, including France and Germany, limited market participation on the continent.



Consultancy Strategie Grains kept unchanged its monthly forecast for soft wheat production in the European Union this year as a weather-related reduction for France was offset by favourable prospects in the southeast of the bloc.



The most-active soybean futures were down 0.4% at $16.35-3/4 a bushel, extending a retreat from a September 2012 high of $16.67-1/2 hit on Wednesday.



The USDA projected U.S. 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, roughly in line with trade expectations and up only slightly from the 120 million bushels expected at the end of 2020/21, a seven-year low. 



(Additional reporting by Colin Packham in Canberra; editing by Rashmi Aich and Jason Neely)

corn

Corn futures slip on bearish USDA stocks forecast

&nbsp;U.S. corn futures fell for the first time in more than a week on Monday, as traders squared positions ahead of a widely watched U.S. government report, though concerns over tight global supplies kept prices around a more than 8-year high.



FUNDAMENTALS



* The most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were down 0.8% at $7.26-1/4 a bushel by 0124 GMT, after closing up 1.9% on Friday when prices hit a March 2013 high of $7.34-1/4 a bushel.



* The most active soybean futures fell 0.3% to $15.84-1/2 a bushel, after closing up 1.3% in the previous session when prices hit a October 2012 high of $15.99-1/2 a bushel.



* The most active wheat futures fell 1% to $7.53-1/4 a bushel, after closing up 1.2% in the previous session.



* Market eyes the U.S. Department of Agriculture&#8217;s (USDA) first 2021/22 report.



* The USDA is expected to predict U.S. soybean ending stocks will remain tight at 138 million bushels, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.



* They projected the agency will reduce its 2020/21 stocks estimate to 117 million bushels from 120 million.



* Chinese importers bought 1.36 million tonnes of U.S. corn that will be shipped during the 2021/22 marketing year, which starts in September, according to USDA.



MARKET NEWS



 The dollar languished near a more than two-month low versus major peers, as investors continued to assess the implications for monetary policy of a disappointing U.S. employment report, ahead of inflation data this week.



* Crude prices climbed more than 1%, after a major cyber attack that forced the shutdown of critical fuel supply pipelines in the United States, highlighting the fragility of oil infrastructure.



* Stocks rose amid speculation that interest rates will remain low for an extended period due to the receding risk of a rapid acceleration in inflation, while oil prices jumped after a cyber attack on a U.S. pipeline operator unnerved markets.



 (Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

grains

Corn falls nearly 1% ahead of USDA report, supply crunch keep prices near 8-yr peak

&nbsp;Somalia said on Thursday it was restoring diplomatic relations with neighbouring Kenya almost six months after severing ties, accusing Nairobi of meddling in politics.



Relations between the countries have also been tense over the ownership of potential oil and gas deposits, some of which lie off the coast of Jubbaland, one of Somalia&#8217;s five semi-autonomous states.



&#8220;Now diplomatic relations are restored,&#8221; deputy information minister Abdirahman Yusuf told a news conference in Mogadishu, saying the Gulf Arab state of Qatar had helped in the process.



Kenya&#8217;s foreign ministry said that it took note of the Somali government&#8217;s announcement.



The Ministry of Foreign Affairs &#8220;looks forward to further normalization of relations by the Somali authorities including with regard to trade, communication, transportation, people-to-people relations and cultural exchanges,&#8221; it said in a statement. It also acknowledged the support of Qatar in particular in its efforts to normalize relations.



Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani told Reuters that Doha had agreed with the presidents of both countries that they would work on strengthening bilateral relations and bringing them &#8220;back on track&#8221;.



The minister said his special envoy for counterterrorism and mediation of conflict resolution, Mutlaq Al-Qahtani, had visited both countries.



&#8220;We believe that normalizing the relationship between the two neighbours is very important for political stability, especially in Somalia which is currently going through political turmoil &#8230; and we look forward to the elections there,&#8221; he said.



Somalian President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed has directed the prime minister to prepare a parliamentary election. A delay led to a political crisis that raised fears al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgents could exploit a security vacuum if state forces turn on each other.



State House in Nairobi tweeted that President Uhuru Kenyatta &#8220;received a special message&#8221; from Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani that was delivered by the foreign minister&#8217;s special envoy.



In November, Somalia expelled Kenya&#8217;s ambassador and recalled its own from Nairobi after accusing Kenya of interfering in the electoral process in Jubbaland.



In February 2019, Kenya recalled its ambassador after Mogadishu decided to auction oil and gas exploration blocks at the centre of their maritime rights dispute. The two countries had revived ties in November the same year.



The two are at present before the World Court to adjudicate the maritime boundary dispute.



 (Reporting by Abdi Sheikh; Additional reporting by George Obulutsa and Ghaida Ghantous; Writing by Maggie Fick; editing by Bernadette Baum/Mark Heinrich and Grant McCool)

The 2019 Concordia Annual Summit – Day 1

Somalia revives ties with Kenya after nearly six-month break

SINGAPORE, May 6 (Reuters) &#8211; Chicago corn futures rose up to 2% on Thursday to their highest in more than eight years, as concerns over dry weather in Brazil and strong demand from animal feed producers buoyed the market.



Wheat extended gains and soybeans edged higher.



&#8220;The sentiment is pretty bullish, not just in corn but the entire grains complex,&#8221; said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.



&#8220;There are a lot of weather events globally, which are supporting prices, although the market has yet to see any real supply shock.&#8221;



The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) added 1.6% to $7.19-3/4 a bushel, as of 0112 GMT. The market touched $7.23 a bushel earlier in the session, its highest level since March 2013.



Wheat gained 0.5% to $7.48-1/4 a bushel and soybeans rose 0.3% to $15.47 a bushel.



Dry weather in Brazil is continuing to raise concerns about global supplies.



Brazil&#8217;s cereal exporter association Anec on Wednesday said the country would ship some 32 million tonnes of corn this year, 1.6 million tonnes less than in 2020.



China cancelled purchases of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. corn for delivery in the 2020/2021 marketing year, following the recent surge in prices, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.



Still, the USDA reported that exporters sold 184,100 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico and a total of 147,320 tonnes to unknown buyers.



French soft wheat shipments outside the European Union last month were the lowest for an April in nine years, as exports to Morocco and Algeria eased, Refinitiv data showed.



Soft wheat exports to destinations outside the EU-27 and Britain totalled 665,600 tonnes in April, the 10th month of the 2020/21 season, an initial estimate based on Refinitiv loading data showed.



Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soymeal futures contracts on Thursday, traders said. 



(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Corn jumps 2% to 2013 high as global supplies tighten

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) &#8211; Emerging market stocks struggled to make headway on Tuesday as Taiwan and India wrestled with rising COVID-19 infections, with the latter seeing cases surge past 20 million.



Taiwan&#8217;s main stock index, one of the strongest performers in Asia so far this year, was 1.7% down in a second consecutive day of heavy losses, amid a rare rise in infections.



In choppy trade, India&#8217;s NSE Nifty 50 index added 0.3% as encouraging corporate earnings were offset by uncertainties around the pandemic.



Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi called for a nationwide lockdown after the world&#8217;s biggest surge in coronavirus infections has seen the country become the second to pass the milestone of 20 million cases, after the United States.



&#8220;(Indian) markets will likely remain choppy for some time because of the uncertainties around the pandemic. Investors will be waiting for clarity on the vaccine situation, plateauing of cases and whether we will see a central level lockdown again,&#8221; said Aishvarya Dadheech, fund manager at Ambit Asset Management.



The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, of which Taiwan and India are among the largest components along with China and South Korea, was flat.



Chinese markets were closed for a holiday, while stock gauges in Hong Kong and South Korea were 0.8% and 0.6% higher, respectively, with the latter ending a five-day losing streak.



With the U.S. dollar drifting higher as investors weigh whether a roaring U.S. economic recovery may force interest rates higher, emerging market currencies were under pressure.



MSCI&#8217;s emerging markets currency index was 0.1% lower, with South Africa&#8217;s rand, a barometer for wider emerging market risk sentiment, 0.6% weaker.



South Africa&#8217;s government has allocated an extra 4 billion rand ($276 mln) to buy COVID-19 vaccines and extend a special distress grant to thousands of people hit by the pandemic.



Turkey&#8217;s lira was 0.8% weaker in the wake of Monday&#8217;s data showing annual inflation in April rose to its highest level in nearly two years, pressuring the central bank to keep policy tight.



The lira has tumbled around 13% since mid-March when President Tayyip Erdogan replaced Naci Agbal, a well-respected and hawkish central bank governor, driving up import costs for import-dependent Turkey.



Russia&#8217;s rouble was 0.2% firmer against the dollar.



Russian factory activity growth slowed down in April following a smaller rate of increase in output and a renewed decline in new orders, according to IHS Markit&#8217;s Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index headline reading.



(Additional reporting by Chris Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)

Trading Board Is Showing A Crash In Stok Exchange Market

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks struggle amid COVID-19 surges

Since the Supreme Court of Appeals’ judgment in 2004 in what is colloquially known as “the potato case”, businesses have been turning to litigation funders to assist them in funding legal proceedings.



Litigation funding aligns the interests of a claimant (who wants a result as cost effectively as possible), the interests of the legal representatives (who need to be remunerated regardless of the result), and the interests of funders (who want a fair return on their investment).



Traditionally, litigation funding has been seen as a way of ensuring that a lack of money isn’t the only hurdle to a business instituting a claim against another party for a breach of contract or other commercial disputes.



This is because legal disputes tend to be complex, expensive, take several years to conclude, and are usually against well-resourced and well-represented defendants; success is not guaranteed, and many companies are unable to properly bankroll their claims.



However, companies with more than sufficient monetary reserves also have sound business reasons to make use of litigation funding.&nbsp;&nbsp;



At Taurus Capital, we are seeing a small groundswell of resourced&nbsp; corporates and businesses using litigation funding strategically to bankroll their claims, rather than paying legal costs out of their reserves or cash flow.



The funding is part of their overall business strategy, rather than a cry for help. They are willing to share the proceeds of litigation to help reduce their risks of tying up cash that could be used for capital or income-generating projects. These companies understand that there has to be a solid business case for the claim itself &#8212; judged on the merits of the case and balanced against the quantum of the claim that a court is likely to award as part of the funder’s due diligence.&nbsp;



They have also paid special attention to the other commercial considerations before entering the funding agreement. In these cases, most commercial issues revolve around how the litigant’s control is affected, and to what share of the litigation proceeds the funder is entitled if the litigation succeeds.



Control&nbsp;



Two main considerations fall under the ambit of control: who instructs the legal representatives (including what happens if there is a dispute between client and funder as to the instructions to be given to the legal representatives), and who gets to decide on the settlement amount. These considerations are usually dealt with when negotiating the transaction, and as a result the litigation inevitably becomes the basis for a strong partnership between the claimant and the funder. The funder is usually comfortable with taking a backseat in instructing legal counsel because, at the outset of the transaction, the litigant and legal team lay out the prospects, applicable law and strategies, and plot forthcoming legal instructions including outlining the matter’s prospects of success. Incidentally, this also provides the litigant with additional insight into what they will face in court, as reputable funders will have deep and thorough knowledge of the latest legal developments in the field.



To protect the funder, litigants can expect a transaction to include safeguard clauses that prevent litigants from prejudicing the claim’s prospects, delaying the litigation, or giving the legal team unfettered instructions. In this regard, one commercial consideration is whether the funder has a say as to how much the case can settle for.



The solution is to set, at the outset of the transaction, a trigger amount(s) which, if offered by the defendant as a settlement, must be accepted by the parties unless otherwise agreed. A commercially sound agreement will also stipulate how to resolve conflicts of interest that may arise between funder and claimant. Usually, the solution is a dedicated dispute-resolution process adjudicated by an independent counsel.



Splitting the proceeds



Companies should also consider carefully what portion of the proceeds of a successful claim they are willing to share. This is, in our experience, the most negotiated term in the transaction. It depends on the funding amount required, potential duration of the litigation, the identity of the defendant, the nature of the claim (whether it is a determinable or an indeterminable amount), and a variety of other salient factors.



The solution is for the litigation-funding transaction to base the settlement value on equity and risk. This approach considers the funder’s investment as high value, non-recourse and illiquid, with a binary risk of a win-or-lose outcome to the funder.



In the absence of an industry standard, most reputable litigation funders are comfortable with basing their returns (remuneration) on a multiple of the amount invested. Another common way to calculate the returns for the funder is a sliding scale of between 10% and 50% of the claim.



The exact percentage is a function of the quantum of the claim – larger claims generally attract lower percentages of returns for the funder. For example, 5% of a R500 million claim and 50% of a R50 million claim both deliver returns of roughly R25 million to the funder. Interestingly, their respective legal costs may also be very similar.



Finding the balance



A careful assessment of the commercial elements of control and distribution of litigation proceeds properly balances the interests of a litigant and funder, while preserving the attorney-client relationship. It also allows a business to spend its reserves on, say, growing a new division and revenue line, rather than on funding a legal case &#8212; and who wouldn’t rather build their business than fight a legal case with their own dedicated war chest?

Gavel, scales of justice and law books

Why litigation is moving into the asset column of corporate balance sheets

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/linkedin-teamate-1024x646-1-820x517.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-401254" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/linkedin-teamate-1024x646-1-820x517.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/linkedin-teamate-1024x646-1-300x189.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/linkedin-teamate-1024x646-1-768x485.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/linkedin-teamate-1024x646-1.jpeg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Photo: Dreamstime.com</figcaption></figure>



April 9 (Reuters) &#8211; Some LinkedIn data, including publicly viewable member profile, has been extracted and posted for sale, Microsoft Corp&#8217;s professional networking site said based on an investigation.



The incident was not a data breach and no private member account data from the platform was included, LinkedIn said in a <a href="https://bit.ly/3uB4nEy">blog post</a> on Thursday, adding that the information on sale is a collection of data from a number of websites and companies.



LinkedIn declined to provide more details on the incident, including the number of users affected.



CyberNews had <a href="https://bit.ly/3uCaNTP">reported</a> on April 6 that an archive of data scraped from 500 million LinkedIn profiles was put for sale on a popular hacker forum.



Earlier this week, Facebook Inc said &#8220;malicious actors&#8221; had obtained data prior to September 2019 by &#8220;scraping&#8221; profiles using a vulnerability in the platform&#8217;s tool for syncing contacts.



The world&#8217;s largest social network did not the notify more than 530 million users whose details were obtained through the misuse and recently made public in a database, and does not have plans to do so, a company spokesman said on Wednesday.



(Reporting by Akanksha Rana and Tiyashi Datta in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

linkedin-teamate-1024×646-1

LinkedIn says some user data extracted and posted for sale

DUBAI/LONDON/MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) &#8211; OPEC+ has lowered its 2021 oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day reflecting concerns about the market&#8217;s recovery as new coronavirus lockdowns take hold, a move that could strengthen the case for a cautious output decision this week.



The Joint Technical Committee, which advises the group of oil-producing nations that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, met on Tuesday ahead of a ministerial meeting on Thursday to decide output policy.



&#8220;Despite the ongoing destocking of commercial OECD stocks, they remain above the 2015-2019 average, while recognising that prevailing volatility in the market structure is a signal of fragile market conditions,&#8221; according to the JTC report seen by Reuters.



Under its base case scenario, it expects oil demand to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day this year, down by 300,000 bpd from its previous forecast, the report showed.



It also raised its global supply growth forecast by 200,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd.



As a result, it sees oil stocks in the industrialised world dipping below the 2015-2019 average in August, a month later than it previously forecast.



At a higher level ministerial panel meeting on Wednesday, known as JMMC, OPEC&#8217;s secretary general also warned about the need for caution.



&#8220;We need to remember that the environment remains challenging, complex and uncertain, with the market volatility we have witnessed in the last two weeks of March a reminder of the fragility facing economies and oil demand,&#8221; Mohammad Barkindo said.



The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, a group known as OPEC+, are curbing output by just over 7 million bpd to support prices and reduce oversupply. Saudi Arabia has added an additional 1 million bpd to those cuts.



Saudi Arabia is prepared to support extending oil output limits and is also ready to prolong its own voluntary cuts, a source told Reuters.



On Wednesday, the JMMC made no formal recommendation, three OPEC+ sources said. Options, which the ministers are set to consider on Thursday, include an output roll-over and a gradual increase, two OPEC+ sources said.



Some OPEC members have expressed frustration that non-OPEC Russia and Kazakhstan have asked for small output increase for a third month running while supporting a broader cuts roll over, the sources said.



JPMorgan in a research note said it believes OPEC+ will tread cautiously by largely rolling over its production cuts into May and that Saudi Arabia will extend its additional cut until the end of June.



&#8220;We expect the alliance to start adding production in 500,000 bpd increments beginning in June and lasting through August,&#8221; the bank added.



(Reporting by Rania El Gamal in Dubai, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler in London and Olesya Astakhova in Moscow; editing by Barbara Lewis and Marguerita Choy)

The 169th Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Conference

UPDATE 6-OPEC+ panel lowers oil demand growth forecast

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="521" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/John-Magufuli-2-820x521.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-399589" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/John-Magufuli-2-820x521.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/John-Magufuli-2-300x191.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/John-Magufuli-2-768x488.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/John-Magufuli-2.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Image from Flickr</figcaption></figure>



March 17 &#8211; Tanzania&#8217;s President John Magufuli, admired by followers for his hostility to corruption and waste but regarded by foes as an irascible authoritarian intolerant of dissent and sceptical about COVID-19, has died aged 61.



He was nicknamed &#8220;The Bulldozer&#8221; for his fondness for massive public works and a reputation for pushing through policies despite opposition &#8211; a hard-charging leadership style that won support from many Tanzanians.



But he also attracted criticism at home and abroad for what opponents saw as his eccentric handling of the coronavirus pandemic.



Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan said on Wednesday he had died of heart illness, days after officials denied he had fallen ill amid rumours that he had contracted COVID-19.



Mangufuli decried lockdowns, was sceptical of COVID-19 drugs and suggested vaccines may be part of a foreign plot to steal Africa&#8217;s wealth.



&#8220;Vaccines are not good. If they were, then the white man would have brought vaccines for HIV/AIDS,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Tanzanians should be careful with these imported things. You should not think that they love you a lot. This nation is rich, Africa is rich, everyone wants some of it.&#8221;



The government stopped reporting statistics for new cases and deaths in May last year when it had registered 509 cases and 21 deaths. Magufuli had questioned coronavirus testing kits &#8211; which he said had returned positive results on a goat and pawpaw fruit. He declared the pandemic over and reopened the economy.



But the death in February of a senior politician from the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar raised concerns about a hidden pandemic running amok in the East African nation.



Magufuli&#8217;s approach caused alarm at the World Health Organization, prompting its head to implore Tanzania to improve public health measures, prepare to distribute vaccines and start reporting coronavirus cases and sharing data.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-quick-rise-to-influence">QUICK RISE TO INFLUENCE</h2>



Born in the village of Chato in the Geita region of northwestern Tanzania, Magufuli was first elected to parliament in 1995 from his home constituency.



A former chemistry teacher, he quickly climbed the political ladder and served in various cabinet roles, including as minister of works, before he won the presidency in 2015.



During his first presidential campaign he captured headlines by doing push-ups at a rally to demonstrate his physical fitness for office. His cost-cutting including cancelling independence day festivities and restricting foreign travel by officials.



He was re-elected for a second term in 2020, winning 84% of the vote in a ballot the opposition said was marred by irregularities and whose results it rejected.



Upon re-election, he promised to build on his agenda of fighting corruption and reducing wasteful public spending, moves which won him praise in his first term.



Magufuli, in no-nonsense style, would make unannounced inspection visits to government departments, and once sacked senior managers at Tanzania&#8217;s main public hospital, saying they were not delivering. He also purged thousands of &#8220;ghost workers&#8221; from the government, and reduced his own salary as part of spending cuts. 



He was tough on businesses when he thought they were under-paying taxes. In 2017, his government accused gold producer Acacia Mining of evading taxes and under-declaring exports, hitting it with a $190 billion tax bill. h



Barrick Gold Corp, which owned the majority of Acacia and eventually bought it out, agreed to pay Tanzania $300 million to settle tax and other disputes.



Critics said Magufuli had presided over a deterioration of the political scene, after his administration arrested opposition leaders, suspended some newspapers and restricted political rallies. The government denies suppressing dissent.



Among those critics is opposition leader Tundu Lissu, shot 16 times by unknown gunmen in the administrative capital Dodoma in September 2017.



He accused the state of trying to kill him, which the government denied. Magufuli condemned the shooting and ordered security forces to investigate, but no one has been arrested. 



On the economic front, he embarked on ambitious infrastructure projects in the hope of supercharging East Africa&#8217;s third largest economy.



These included a railway, a hydropower project and the revival of state carrier Air Tanzania, spending billions of dollars in the process.



(Reporting by Nairobi newsroom; editing by William Maclean)



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

SAFRICA-POLITICS-INAUGURATION

Tanzania’s ‘Bulldozer’ president and COVID-19 skeptic dies

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="546" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1195116766-820x546.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-397227" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1195116766-820x546.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1195116766-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1195116766-768x511.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1195116766-1536x1023.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GettyImages-1195116766.jpeg 1742w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption>Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria&#8217;s president, takes part in a family photo with leaders of African countries at the U.K. &#8211; Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel in London, U.K., on Monday, Jan. 20, 2020. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will reinforce his vision of a global Britain trading freely outside the EU on Monday, when he hosts African leaders at an inaugural summit. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



ABUJA, Feb 12 (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria&#8217;s president has approved the creation of a new company that will focus on infrastructure development, with a seed capital of 1 trillion naira ($2.63 billion), the head of state&#8217;s office said on Friday.



The company, named Infra-Co, will be a public-private partnership, and the initial capital will come from the central bank, the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), and the Africa Finance Corporation, it said.



&#8220;Infra-Co will finance public asset development, rehabilitation and reconstruction as well as invest in cutting edge infrastructure projects for roads, rail, power and other key sectors,&#8221; President Muhammadu Buhari&#8217;s office said in a statement.



Its board will be chaired by the central bank governor, the managing director Nigeria&#8217;s sovereign wealth fund, the president of the Africa Finance Corporation, and three independent directors from the private sector, the statement said.



The aim is for the entity to grow to 15 trillion naira in assets and capital, it added.



Nigeria&#8217;s poor transport and power networks have stymied economic growth for decades, holding back the distribution of wealth in the country which has Africa&#8217;s biggest economy but 40% of people live below the national poverty line of 137,430 naira ($360.99) per year.



($1 = 380.70 naira) (Reporting by Felix Onuah; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

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Nigeria’s president approves set up of $2.6 bln infrastructure firm

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article

ANALYSIS-COVID may be shifting ratings goalposts

Barloworld sees earnings surge

Investec CEO on full-year earnings, economic optimism amid vaccine rollout

G20 health summit looks to boost vaccine access, drugmakers to offer cut-price shots

Dubai targets over 5.5 mln overseas tourists this year

In conversation with Made In Africa Chairman Kojo Annan

Kenyan court slams brakes on president’s constitutional changes

Corn futures slip on bearish USDA stocks forecast

Corn falls nearly 1% ahead of USDA report, supply crunch keep prices near 8-yr peak

Somalia revives ties with Kenya after nearly six-month break

Corn jumps 2% to 2013 high as global supplies tighten

EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks struggle amid COVID-19 surges

Why litigation is moving into the asset column of corporate balance sheets

LinkedIn says some user data extracted and posted for sale

UPDATE 6-OPEC+ panel lowers oil demand growth forecast

Tanzania’s ‘Bulldozer’ president and COVID-19 skeptic dies

Nigeria’s president approves set up of $2.6 bln infrastructure firm

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