LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; The coronavirus crisis may have triggered the long-anticipated tipping point in oil demand and it is focusing minds in OPEC.



The pandemic drove down daily crude consumption by as much as a third earlier this year, at a time when the rise of electric vehicles and a shift to renewable energy sources were already prompting downward revisions in forecasts for long-term oil demand.



It has prompted some officials in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, oil’s most powerful proponent since it was founded 60 years ago, to ask whether this year’s dramatic demand destruction heralds a permanent shift and how best to manage supplies if the age of oil is drawing to a close.



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“People are waking up to a new reality and trying to work their heads around it all,” an industry source close to OPEC told Reuters, adding the “possibility exists in the minds of all the key players” that consumption might never fully recover.



Reuters interviewed seven current and former officials or other sources involved in OPEC, most of whom asked not to be named. They said this year’s crisis that sent oil below $16 a barrel LCOc1 had prompted OPEC and its 13 members to question long-held views on the demand growth outlook.



Just 12 years ago, OPEC states were flush with cash when oil peaked above $145 a barrel as demand surged.



Now it faces a dramatic adjustment if consumption starts a permanent decline. The group will need to manage even more closely its cooperation with other producers, such as Russia, to maximise falling revenues and will have to work to ensure relations inside the group are not frayed by any fratricidal dash to defend market share in a shrinking businesses.



“OPEC’s job will be harder in the future because of lower demand and rising non-OPEC production,” said Hasan Qabazard, OPEC’s head of research from 2006 to 2013 whose work now includes advising hedge funds and investment banks on OPEC policy.



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One official, who works in energy studies in the oil ministry of a major OPEC member, said shocks to oil demand had in the past led to permanent changes in consumer behaviour. He said this time was unlikely to be different.



“The demand does not return to pre-crisis levels or it takes time for this to happen,” he said. “The main concern is that oil demand will peak in the next few years due to rapid technological advances, especially in car batteries.”



In 2019, the world consumed 99.7 million barrels per day (bpd) &#8211; and OPEC was forecasting a rise to 101 million bpd in 2020.



But global lockdowns this year that grounded planes and took traffic off the streets, prompted OPEC to slash the 2020 figure to 91 million bpd, with 2021 demand still seen below 2019 levels.

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End game for oil? OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand

(Reuters) &#8211; Almost 40 countries have reported record single-day increases in coronavirus infections over the past week, around double the number that did so the previous week, according to a Reuters tally showing a pick-up in the pandemic in every region of the world.FILE PHOTO: A nurse works inside a field hospital builtÊon a soccer stadium in Machakos, as the number of confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases continues to rise in Kenya, July 23, 2020. Picture taken July 23, 2020.REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File Photo



The rate of cases has been increasing not only in countries like the United States, Brazil and India, which have dominated global headlines with large outbreaks, but in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Bolivia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Bulgaria, Belgium, Uzbekistan and Israel, among others. &nbsp;



Many countries, especially those where officials eased earlier social distancing lockdowns, are experiencing a second peak more than a month after recording their first.



“We will not be going back to the ‘old normal’. The pandemic has already changed the way we live our lives,” World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said this week. “We’re asking everyone to treat the decisions about where they go, what they do and who they meet with as life-and-death decisions – because they are.”



The Reuters data, compiled from official reports, shows a steady rise in the number of countries reporting record daily increases in the virus that causes COVID-19 over the past month. At least seven countries recorded such increases three weeks ago, rising to at least 13 countries two weeks ago to at least 20 countries last week and to 37 countries this week.



The true numbers of both cases and deaths are almost certainly underreported, particularly in countries with poorer health care systems, health experts and officials say. For this report, the Reuters data was restricted to countries that provide regular daily numbers.



A surge in cases usually precedes a rise in deaths by a couple of weeks.



The United States remains at the top of the case list, this week passing more than 4 million cases and recording more than 1,000 deaths for four consecutive days. Brazil and India &#8211; which epidemiologists say is still likely months from hitting its peak &#8211; have also exceeded 1 million cases.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">SECOND WAVE</h3>



The data reveals a growing number of resurgent cases in countries across all regions.



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In Australia, officials enforced a six-week partial lockdown and made face masks mandatory for residents in the country’s second-largest city, Melbourne, after a fresh outbreak.



Australia and Japan, which also posted a daily case record this week, both warned of a rise in infections among young people, many of whom celebrated the end of social restrictions at bars and parties.



In Mexico, which also posted a daily record this week and has the fourth-highest death toll of any country, officials warned that a downward trend in case numbers that began in mid-June &#8211; about the time the city began relaxing social distancing measures &#8211; could reverse.



Based on the rate of hospital admissions over the past week, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum said, hospitalisation levels by October could exceed those registered in June, the height of the pandemic.



“It is important to recognise that if we do not change the trend, there could be exponential growth,” she said.



In Europe, where the summer vacation season is in full swing, a new daily record figure in Spain is likely to deter tourists from visiting one of the continent’s most popular destinations.Slideshow&nbsp;(4 Images)



In Africa, Kenya recorded a record high daily case number less than two weeks after reopening activity, including domestic passenger flights. President Uhuru Kenyatta, who had announced international flights would resume on Aug. 1, has summoned officials to an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the surge in cases.



In the Middle East, Oman imposed new restrictions that begin on Saturday in addition to a two-week lockdown that will overlap the Islamic feast of Eid al-Adha after reporting a record number of cases.

Clarification on COVID-19 “hotspots” as SA moves to level 3 lockdown

Record numbers of coronavirus cases in every global region: Reuters tally

<a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/the-inga-3-hydropower-project#:%7E:text=The%20Democratic%20Republic%20of%20Congo's,power%20mines%20in%20eastern%20DRC.">Seven years ago</a>&nbsp;the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) proposed the Inga 3 – a 4.8GW hydropower project on the Congo River – with great fanfare. Third in a series of dams that would form the Grand Inga complex on the Congo river, the project was touted as a solution to southern Africa’s energy deficit woes and a way for the DRC to participate in regional economic development.



Seven years later, development of Inga 3 has yet to begin. The project continues to be stymied by conflicts. For example, earlier this year, one of the partners,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/22572/drcs-giant-inga-iii-dam-spanish-firm-acs-throws-in-the-towel/">a Spanish company, pulled out of the consortium</a>. But DRC president Félix Tshisekedi continues to push to revive&nbsp;<a href="http://venturesafrica.com/drc-president-gets-africas-biggest-hydropower-project-back-on-track/">the plans</a>.



According to South Africa’s&nbsp;<a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/IRP/irp-2019.html">Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019)</a>, the country plans to import at least 2.5GW of electric power from Inga 3 (or more than half of the original 4.8GW design),&nbsp;<a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/remarks-president-cyril-ramaphosa-nepad-heads-state-and-government-orientation-committee">a commitment reiterated recently by South African president Cyril Ramaphosa</a>. The largest remaining fractions of Inga 3’s electricity generation would be purchased by the mining industry in the DRC. Less than 10% of the electricity from Inga 3 is expected to supply the DRC’s residential electricity needs. Currently 90% of the population in the DRC&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/democratic-republic-congo#:%7E:text=ENERGY%20SECTOR%20OVERVIEW&amp;text=The%20DRC%20has%20one%20of,and%2019%25%20in%20urban%20areas.">lacks electricity access</a>.



Does Inga 3 make sense?



We set out to answer this question in our&nbsp;<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf60">research paper</a>. We concluded that pursuing large hydropower dams in the DRC is financially risky for South Africa. We assessed the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of renewable energy alternatives to Inga 3 to serve the energy needs of both the host country, the DRC, and the main buyer, South Africa.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Better alternatives</h2>



The hydropower potential at the Grand Inga site on the Congo River,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/democratic-republic-of-the-congo">the largest remaining untapped hydropower potential in the world</a>, has drawn the interest and attention of development banks and regional governments for the past several decades. But there’s been dramatic change in the energy sector in the past five years. In particular, the cost of alternative energy sources like wind and solar has changed the game for cost-competitive and sustainable energy generation that can be rapidly scaled up.



There are more efficient ways to address severe energy deficits quickly and cost-efficiently. For example, wind projects take only one to three years to build and most solar photovoltaic projects take a year. Both incur lower costs than similar-sized hydropower projects, which take five to 10 years to build. The latest construction time estimate for the Inga 3 is eight years.



Longer build times lead to greater costs due to interest on capital. And&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421513010926">analysis of data from past large hydropower dams</a>&nbsp;shows that these projects cost twice the amount they quoted before the start of the project.



We found that, even without considering the large environmental and social impacts, the dam is an unsound investment based on plain economics.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Options for South Africa</h2>



<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf60">In our study</a>&nbsp;we compared alternative energy sources for South Africa, the largest potential buyer of Inga 3 electricity.



We found that a mix of wind, solar photovoltaics, and some natural gas would be more cost-effective than Inga 3 to meet future demand.



We reached this conclusion after examining the impact of several uncertain factors that could change overall costs. These included: Inga 3 performance, Inga 3 cost overruns, wind and solar performance, and the demand for electricity in the future.



The only scenarios in which Inga 3 was more cost-effective were those that assumed significantly lower than average wind energy performance.



In the case of the DRC, we found that wind and solar generated electricity would be cheaper than the World Bank-estimated price of electricity from Inga 3 for both retail customers in Kinshasa and mining customers in the Katanga province.



These renewable energy technologies are more suitable for providing decentralised and off-grid access to electricity to DRC’s geographically dispersed population.



The DRC has since proposed to more than double the initial capacity examined in our study. This would obviously change the economics described here, though President Tshisekedi has expressed preference for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-20/spain-s-acs-withdraws-from-congo-s-giant-inga-iii-dam">original smaller 4.8GW proposal</a>.



Of course, economics should be only one of many factors to weigh when choosing energy technologies. Like many other mega hydropower projects, the Inga 3 has been fraught with potential severe social and environmental impacts. At least&nbsp;<a href="https://www.lifegate.com/inga-3-dam-dr-congo#:%7E:text=How%20it%20will%20affect%20local,affect%20the%20river's%20fish%20supplies.">35,000 people would be displaced</a>&nbsp;by Inga 3 alone.



The potential ecosystem impacts include the decline of fisheries upstream of the dam, threats to freshwater diversity and mangroves in the Congo delta, and reduced carbon sequestration through reduced organic sediment transport downstream to the ocean.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Choosing a better course</h2>



Time and resources wasted over the last decade entertaining a high-risk mega project that may not even be realised could have been fruitfully spent pursuing opportunities like wind and solar technologies that are cost-effective today.



The DRC government and international financial institutions like the Africa Development Bank backing the Inga 3 can still change course to choose more sustainable and lower risk avenues to provide cost-effective access to energy and spur economic development.

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Why wind and solar would offer the DRC and South Africa better energy deals than Inga 3

WASHINGTON (Reuters) &#8211; Jimmy Tosh, who runs a multi-million dollar hog and grain farm in Tennessee, is a lifelong Republican. He is pro-gun, supports lower taxes and agrees with most of Republican President Donald Trump’s agenda.



He is also spending his money to help defeat Trump in November’s election.



“I agree with 80% of the things he does; I just cannot stand a liar,” Tosh, 70, said of Trump.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">RELATED COVERAGE</h4>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-contested-explainer/explainer-why-election-day-could-be-just-the-start-of-a-long-battle-over-the-u-s-presidency-idUSKCN24P133">Explainer: Why Election Day could be just the start of a long battle over the U.S. presidency</a></li><li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-china-analysis/ahead-of-u-s-election-china-braces-for-rocky-ride-potential-change-idUSKCN24P13H">Ahead of U.S. election, China braces for rocky ride, potential change</a></li></ul>



Tosh is one of a growing number of wealthy conservative Americans who say Trump is a threat to democracy and the long-term health of the Republican Party. They are actively supporting his Democratic opponent in the Nov. 3 vote, former Vice President Joe Biden.



Several billionaire and millionaire donors to The Lincoln Project, the most prominent of Republican-backed groups opposing Trump’s re-election, told Reuters that elected Republicans should also be punished for enabling him. Some even support the ouster of vulnerable Republican senators to hand control of the chamber to Democrats.



Their money has fueled an unprecedented campaign from members of a sitting president’s own party to oust him from office. This is a sign that Trump has alienated some Republicans, most recently with his response to the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide protests over police brutality against Black Americans.



The ultimate impact of these actions remains to be seen in a country so deeply polarized. The “Never Trump” Republicans failed to stop his ascent in 2016 and became marginal figures as Trump came to dominate the party during his presidency. But this year could be different, some strategists from both parties said.



“The distinction in 2020 that we didn’t see in 2016 is the amount of money backing their efforts and their size,” said Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist and a spokesperson for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.



“The number of people willing to go public about Trump and put serious money behind beating him — I don’t think we’ve seen an effort on this scale.”



Besides The Lincoln Project, several Republican-backed groups have been formed in recent months to support Biden including 43 Alumni for Biden, a super PAC involving hundreds of officials who served in Republican President George W. Bush’s administration, and a coalition of former Republican national security officials.FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about the administration&#8217;s plan for reopening schools during a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) news briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., July 23, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque



Others are skeptical, noting that Trump is vastly outraising and outspending the Never Trump groups and still enjoys nearly 90% support among Republicans. In June alone, Trump’s campaign raised $55.2 million, compared to the $20 million that The Lincoln Project has raised since its formation in December.



Yet in a close election, even peeling away a sliver of wavering Republicans and some independents could make a difference, analysts said.



Tosh, who has given $11,000 to The Lincoln Project after seeing one of their ads attacking Trump, said he might give to other Republican-led groups too.



“I made the decision I will not support a Republican candidate in an election until Trump is gone,” he said.



Other top individual donors to The Lincoln Project include Christy Walton, the Walmart heiress who has mainly given to Democratic candidates in recent years; hedge fund billionaire Andy Redleaf, who sits on the board of visitors at the conservative Federalist Society; and Sidney Jansma Jr., an oil and gas executive from Michigan and a frequent donor to Republican candidates and causes.



The Lincoln Project ads have attacked Trump over his response to economic and health crises and racial tensions, targeting wavering Trump voters and independents.



Democratic ad maker Jimmy Siegel who worked on Clinton’s 2008 campaign, said some of the spots, viewed by millions, could be persuasive to “teetering” Republicans on the fence.



Erin Perrine, a Trump campaign spokeswoman, said of the anti-Trump groups: “This is the swamp – yet again – trying to take down the duly elected president of the United States.” She said Trump’s level of support among Republicans is “something any former president of any party could only dream of.”A logo for The Lincoln Project, funded by wealthy conservative donors who are opposed to the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump, is seen in a still image from video July 23, 2020. The Lincoln Project/Handout via REUTERS



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">‘REPUBLICANS SHOULD BE PUNISHED’</h3>



It is not just conservatives giving to the Republican anti-Trump groups. The Lincoln Project, for instance, is also receiving large sums from wealthy Democrats, filings with the Federal Election Commission show. Its biggest single donation in June was $1 million from hedge fund manager Stephen Mandel, a prolific Democratic donor.



Reed Galin, one of the group’s founders who worked for Bush and the late Republican U.S. Senator John McCain, said Trump’s bullying brand of politics is “not good for the party, and it’s also bad for the country.”



Redleaf, founder of Minnesota-based hedge fund Whitebox Advisors, said Biden will be the first Democratic presidential candidate he has voted for.



Readleaf, who calls himself a “conservative libertarian,” has donated $35,000 to The Lincoln Project. He said he agreed with the group’s push to also target Republican senators who face tough re-election battles in November.



Tosh said he has “mixed emotions.”



“I’ve been a Republican all my life and want to stay Republican &#8211; but the Republican Party has to change after what it’s done over the past three years.”

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The wealthy Republicans who want to oust Trump in November’s election

The South African government has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for $4.2 billion. The money would come from a facility that provides financing to countries



facing an urgent balance of payments need, without the need to have a full-fledged program in place.



According to the IMF managing director this means that the recipient can spend the money freely but should keep the receipts. Nevertheless, reports that South Africa has been negotiating a letter of intent with the IMF suggests that at least part of the financing will be linked to tougher IMF conditionalities.



The letter of intent is a letter from the government to the IMF in which it sets out the policies that it intends to implement to correct the macro-economic problems that caused it to seek IMF support. The IMF board decides to provide a country with financing on the basis of this letter. Its contents are the core of the conditionalities attached to IMF financing.



South Africans will learn the actual terms of the IMF financing at the end of July when its board of directors considers the country’s request for financial assistance.



But many have already made up their minds about this transaction. Some see it as a humiliating defeat in which the country will be forced to surrender its sovereignty and accept demeaning and immiserating economic policies. Others see it as the first step back from the abyss. They expect the IMF to force the country to take its medicine, as bitter as it may be, and regain economic health.



Both these views are overwrought and ultimately misleading. South Africa has more bargaining power in its relationship with the IMF than either view suggests. In the end, the terms of the IMF arrangement will depend on how effective the government was in its negotiations with the IMF.



To understand this, we need to answer three questions: Will South Africa have to surrender part of its sovereignty to the IMF? Is the IMF a particularly unreasonable negotiating partner? What responsibilities does the IMF have in negotiating the conditions?



The three questions Will South Africa have to surrender part of its sovereignty to the IMF?



Sovereignty is a complicated and sensitive issue. It raises concerns about a state’s autonomy and ability to control its own destiny. One manifestation of sovereignty is a state’s decision to sign an international agreement. It shows that it is an actor on the international stage capable of reaching binding agreements with other subjects of international law – states and international organisations like the IMF.



Nevertheless, most international agreements restrict the sovereign’s freedom of action.



Consider, for example, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. This agreement obliges South Africa to open – and keep open – its economy to trade with the rest of Africa. Before agreeing to this limitation on its freedom of action, South Africa negotiated with its co-signatories to minimise the cost of its commitments and maximise the benefits it expects from the arrangement.



South Africa’s arrangement with the IMF is similar. It is exercising its sovereign prerogatives when it decides to enter into an arrangement with the IMF. Before doing so, the country should negotiate for the best possible deal with the IMF.



Is the IMF a particularly unreasonable negotiating partner?



No bank, charitable foundation or international financial institution provides large amounts of financing without attaching conditions designed to ensure that the recipient uses the funds responsibly and pays them back as agreed. These conditions can range from demanding collateral to requiring promises that restrict the recipient’s future conduct in some way, such as limiting the ways in which it can use the funds.



The IMF conditions its financing on policy measures rather than on collateral or promises about the use of the funds. Historically, these conditions were ideologically driven and controversial. They included reducing the economic role of the state, making economies more market friendly and more globalised.



More recently the IMF leadership has incorporated issues such as inclusiveness, sustainability, social safety nets and gender parity.



It is not easy to predict what the exact mix of conditions will be in any particular case. The experience of other countries suggests that the actual mix is a negotiated outcome. Consequently, the conditions’ content and wording will depend on the country’s economic situation, its willingness to engage in tough negotiations with the IMF and on how effective it is in convincing the IMF of the validity of its positions.



What responsibilities does the IMF have in negotiating the conditions?



The IMF’s Articles of Agreement states that it should help countries



correct maladjustments in their balance of payments without resorting to measures destructive of national or international prosperity.



Thus, the IMF should demonstrate that whatever conditions it attaches to its funding are consistent with the recipient’s prosperity over the medium term. It must also show that it is not helping one IMF member state at the expense of its responsibilities to other member states.



In addition, the IMF, like any international organisation, should comply with applicable customary international law principles.



First, it must respect the sovereignty of its member states, including their laws. Second, it must respect their international legal obligations and not undermine their ability to meet these obligations. Third, the IMF, which is a specialised UN agency, should, pursuant to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, [contribute to securing the



universal and effective recognition and observance&#8221; of human rights.



Based on these principles, the IMF has three responsibilities in regard to its arrangement with South Africa. First, it must ensure that the conditions attached to its financing are consistent with the South African constitution. In particular this means that the IMF must ensure that its conditionalities are consistent with the bill of rights in the constitution.



Second, the IMF must make sure that it does not require anything that is inconsistent with South Africa’s treaty commitments. These includes the state’s international human rights and environmental obligations. Out of respect for South African sovereignty, the IMF must defer to South Africa’s interpretation of these commitments, provided they are not inconsistent with international law.



Third, the IMF should explain how it has determined that the effect of its conditionalities is consistent with the applicable international legal principles. It is important to note that this requirement does not mean the IMF cannot require the state to take such actions as cutting its budget. But it does mean that the IMF has a responsibility to show that these cuts are the least cost way of achieving its objectives.



South Africans should not view the IMF either as the protagonist in its nightmares, or as its saviour. Instead the country should treat it as it would any other financial institution. It should demand that it live up to its own international responsibilities and demonstrate why it thinks its agreement with the government will benefit all South Africans.

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South Africans should accept that the IMF is neither their worst enemy nor their saviour

The next director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will replace Brazilian Roberto de Azevedo, who has served since 2013 and plans to step down at the end of August, a year before the conclusion of his term.



Of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/wto-leadership-contenders-auditions-global-trade-body-200715090700814.html">eight candidates</a>&nbsp;who have thrown their hats into the ring, three are from Africa. They are the former Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; the former Kenyan foreign minister Amina Mohamed, who also previously served as chairperson of the WTO General Council; and Abdel-Hamid Mamdouhm, an Egyptian lawyer who is also an erstwhile WTO official.



The WTO does not operate on the basis of a regional rotation principle. But there is recognition that it has never been led by an African since its creation in 1995. Africa represents a key bloc within the WTO.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wto.org/">It accounts</a>&nbsp;for nearly 27% of membership and 35% of members from developing countries.



Past directors-general have come from Europe, Oceania, Asia and South America.



The challenges facing the WTO are numerous and complex. Since&nbsp;<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2008/07/267842-collapse-doha-round-global-trade-talks-disappointing-says-ban">the collapse</a>&nbsp;of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/update_e.htm">Doha Round of trade talks</a>, the multilateral trade system has stalled and it needs to be revived. Launched in 2001, the Doha Round failed to respond to the development interests of poor countries, most of which are African.



The organisation has also been at the receiving end of&nbsp;<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/09/trumps-real-trade-war-is-being-waged-on-the-wto/">persistent attacks</a>&nbsp;from the Trump administration, which has accused it of failing to protect American interests. This has been aggravated by trade wars between the US and China. And the organisation’s dispute settlement system has been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50736344">paralysed</a>&nbsp;by the refusal of the US to approve appointments of judges to its appellate body.



Concerns have also been voiced by the US, Japan and the European Union (EU) about the WTO’s rules. There’s a strong lobby to have them modernised to take account of the impact of the rise of developing countries and Chinese industrial subsidies. The EU, in particular, has protested against the overuse of the “special and differential treatment” rules designed to afford poor nations more favourable trade terms,&nbsp;<a href="https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2005/april/tradoc_122306.pdf">regarding this as creating a second tier membership</a>.



What’s more, Washington, Brussels and Tokyo have jointly formulated proposals&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3046108/us-eu-and-japan-target-china-new-global-trade-rules">to curtail state support to businesses and industries</a>.



Also, the WTO has had to grapple with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/serv_29may20_e.htm">massive dislocations</a>&nbsp;in international trade brought about by the coronavirus global pandemic.



In our view, of the three African contenders, none is better qualified than Okonjo-Iweala to lead the WTO in the next phase of its 25-year history, which is poised to be the most fractious and challenging.



The WTO plays an important confidence-building role in the global economy, and the interests of poor countries will be best served in a stronger multilateral trading system that is responsive to their development concerns.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What’s needed</h2>



The nature of the institution requires a leader with significant political heft and who commands the respect of all member countries, rich and poor.



The WTO’s director-general and secretariat wield&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wto.org/">very limited executive power</a>. They can inform, manage, coax and oversee. But they can’t decide. Decision-making in the WTO is consensus-driven, and any member country can scupper a trade deal.



This is unlike the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership">World Bank</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About">International Monetary Fund</a>, where decision-making is based on shareholding, which is dominated by industrialised nations.



Okonjo-Iweala is suitably qualified to serve at the helm of the institution. She is a Harvard-educated political heavy-hitter with the skill and experience to cajole, knock heads together and break logjams. She is regarded as a consensus builder who enjoys the confidence of governments, business and multilateral institutions. As Nigeria’s finance minister,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/africa-eyes-the-worlds-top-trade-job-wto-ngozi-okonjo-iweala-but-spars-over-its-candidate/">she successfully spearheaded </a>&nbsp;the negotiation of an $18 billion debt write-off for the country with the Paris Club creditor nations.



Her political acumen and extensive negotiating skills could contribute towards restoring the multilateral trade agenda. This has collapsed amid the Trump administration’s hostility towards multilateralism.



With her origins from a neutral developing country, she could be the right candidate the embattled WTO needs to broker a truce between the US and China and end their trade conflict, which has led to institutional collapse.



Okonjo-Iweala also boasts a credible track record of economic reform and political sway.



Following a long stint as a senior executive at the World Bank, she twice served as Nigeria’s finance minister between 2003 and 2015. During this period, she took on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/africa-eyes-the-worlds-top-trade-job-wto-ngozi-okonjo-iweala-but-spars-over-its-candidate/">vested interests and implemented far-reaching reforms</a>. These included overhauling a corrupt fuel-subsidy scheme, cutting delays at the country’s ports, creating an oil fund to stabilise the economy, increasing transparency by publishing the government’s monthly finances, and introducing an electronic tax system that curbed illegal diversion of funds.



Okonjo-Iweala does not have WTO experience. But she knows and understands the workings of multilateral institutions, honed over many years as an international public servant. She is a seasoned global finance expert, economist and development practitioner with decades of international experience.



Her global finance expertise, in particular, would serve the WTO well given the nexus between trade and finance in the world economy, accentuated by the current economic crisis. By not being a WTO insider, she would bring a much-needed fresh perspective to the institution.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Crossroads</h2>



The WTO is at a crossroads. Since the launch of the Doha development agenda, it has been buffeted by one crisis after another. This has occurred at a time when the drivers of world trade have been undergoing seismic transformations, stemming from the ascent of new actors, notably China, the advent of new technologies and production methods, and changes in global demographics.



Compounding the institutional sclerosis has been the growing rivalry between the US and China, which has brought the institution to a halt.



In the absence of a multilateral architecture to govern trade, there has been a surge in tit-for-tat economic policies, which have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/07/10/the-post-covid-19-world-economic-nationalism-triumphant/">disrupted supply chains and stifled trade and investment flows</a>.



These are desperate and perilous times for the WTO and they call for a credible and effective leader who is qualified to lead the institution at this critical point in its history. Okonjo-Iweala fits the bill. African countries must coalesce around and actively champion her candidacy.

WTO.

Why one of three African candidates fits the bill as the new head of the WTO

By Zinathi Gquma



“I am optimistic about Africa for the future”, says former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, on CNBC Africa.



Commenting on Africa’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Blair praised the continent on the initial measures that were taken to curb the spread of the virus. According to Blair, “Africa has got some things right, because the deaths in Africa are a third of the number of deaths in the UK.”



Blair’s comments echoed those of the international community, during the first stages of Covid-19 outbreaks in the continent. However, the surge in Covid-19 infections is increasing at alarming rates; with the former British Prime Minister questioning: “Is Covid-19 in Africa ticking up or taking off?”



“Governments are doing their level best, but Covid-19 in Africa could take off if we’re not careful”, Blair cautions.



South Africa, Africa’s most industrialised country, has the fifth largest number of Covid-19 infections in the world; after the US, Brazil, India and Russia. On South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak in the country, Blair commended the President’s leadership, saying, “He was following what Europe has seen as best practice”.



He acknowledged that the hard lockdown implemented by Ramaphosa in the initial stages put South Africa in a position to curtail the spread of the disease, while giving the country enough time to build up the capacity of the health system.



The former UK Prime Minister now runs the Tony Blair African Governance Initiative, which aims to make African governments work harder for their people. The non-profit organisation has been instrumental in assisting African countries to implement practical measures in the fight against Covid-19, without destroying their economies.



“This is the biggest challenge I’ve ever seen for governments”, says Blair, who stepped down after a decade of power in 2007.



“I would not like to be taking these decisions in government right now.”



Blair says that this is the time to reset governance and build capable institutions in Africa, so that the continent can rise to its potential. According to the former statesman, “Africa needs to use this Covid-19 crisis to accelerate the process of change.”

Tony Blair Gives Pro-Eu Keynote Speech

“I would not like to be taking these decisions now” -former British prime minister Tony Blair on COVID-19 and Africa.

The energy sector currently accounts for two-thirds of global carbon emissions and expedited progress on energy efficiency and low-carbon sources in the energy mix is required to achieve deep decarbonization.



1. We need an energy transition.



Business as usual will use up the Paris Agreement carbon budget within 20-30 years and bring us towards a hothouse earth. We need a transition from energy that emits greenhouse gases to renewable energy to avoid this fate.



2. We know what we need to do.



The broad shape of the energy transition is to reduce demand where possible through energy efficiency and behavioural change, decarbonize electricity, electrify everything you can and use some variety of renewable-based hydrogen for the rest. To transition at the necessary pace may also require the use of biomass and emissions removal technologies.



3. The energy transition will be difficult.



Fossil fuels provide around 80% of global energy supply and are the foundation of modern society. Many countries and companies are dependent on the wealth generated by fossil fuels and the Bank of England has noted that up to $20 trillion of assets are at risk from the energy transition. South African Banks must work with public sector, for mitigation and policy mindfulness to allow the economy to be ready with measures and targets set.



4. The forces of transition are likely to prevail.



Those who would benefit from a transition vastly outnumber those who benefit from continuity; 80% of people live in countries that import fossil fuels. Just 1% of the global workforce works in the fossil fuel industry and a large share of the rents from fossil fuels flow into the hands of a small number of fossil fuel exporters.



We are living in a fast changing world and South Africa needs to have foresight on what will replace coal exporting , we can use it locally while catching up to make our production cost effective.



5. The energy transition is just.



The global view is, Fossil fuels are used mainly by the rich and the few, while their costs are shouldered mainly by the poor and the many. In contrast, renewables are everywhere, can be deployed at any scale and are being used to solve last-mile problems and provide electricity to the 1 billion people who lack it. Domestically, we are one of the leading exporter of coal, which require reflectiveness and mindfulness leadership on policy transitions. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts an energy transition that will create more new energy jobs than fossil fuel jobs, while South Africa can lose jobs when the transition is not planned well.



6. We have technology solutions.



There are rising numbers of technology solutions available to start the transition in a cost-effective manner. Efficiency gains have already curbed energy demand growth from 3% to around 1% on average and could drive growth still lower. Reflecting on the manufacturing technologies we can take advantage to match the global manufacturing industry standards and have smart factories and smart industries with innovation factor driven tier systems.



7. Incumbents are at risk.



Peaking demand and technological competition put incumbent players in the energy system at considerable risk of lower prices and stranded assets if they fail to react in time. Coal became too expensive to the South African economy, making electricity prices more expensive to businesses and households, which suggest adaptation to renewables and transition to cost effective electricity. That’s the only way South African manufacturing industry can peak and be competitive. Coal is too expensive to the South African economy, we must manage production to serve the required just transition phase and decarbonize the future economy.



8. We need more policy action to reach Paris goals.



Policy-makers need to take much more assertive action if they wish to drive the transition fast enough to meet the aspirations of the Paris Agreement. There is tremendous scope for major policy action.



9. Policy-makers need to plan for change.



Policy-makers need to retool fossil fuel dependent states and systems, to retrain workers in order to ensure that the transition is just, to plan for new sources of tax revenue and to hold back from investing capital in assets which are likely to be stranded by the transition. Eskom and coal companies must start training a pool of their staff for the just transition or renewable energy materials and management of systems. Transformation must be communicated to all staff in time and have a decade or two decade plan that will make ease to tailored programmes to shape human capital to the decarbonized future economy.



It remains uncertain on how the political economy will play out in South Africa. Every country is different and there is no single solution. Some countries&#8217; fossil fuel interests have been able to seize the reins of government to try to hold back an energy transition, while the energy transition will also create new constituencies that benefit from investment and growth as well as jobs in the wider economy. The sustainability and Impact Investment criteria forces unlisted investments and banks adapt to the just transition.



Miyelani Mkhabela is an Executive Director for Antswisa Transaction Advisory Services.

miyelani mkhabela

Nine ways to decarbonize the South African energy sector

NEW YORK (Reuters) &#8211; Investors are searching for bargains in the world of U.S. small-caps, as the beaten-down asset class prepares for what may be the worst earnings season in its history amid a resurgent coronavirus pandemic.



Small-cap companies are expected to post a year-over-year earnings declines of approximately 90% as companies report their second-quarter results over the next several weeks, compared to a 67% hit for mid-caps and 44% for large-caps, according to Jefferies. That would be the largest drop since the fourth quarter of 2008, data from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices showed.



While some investors had counted on a third-quarter rebound, many are now concerned that potential coronavirus-fueled economic shutdowns in California, Florida and Texas will deal a disproportionate hit to smaller firms, which are more directly tied to domestic spending and have been among the biggest beneficiaries of stimulus measures delivered by the Federal Reserve and Congress.



People fear a “‘Night of the Living Dead’ of small-cap companies that would otherwise go bankrupt without the benefit of the stimulus and record-low interest rates,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Wells Fargo Asset Management.



Small-cap stocks are often considered a barometer of investor sentiment and tend to be among the first to recover in an economic revival. Their lackluster performance this year has led to concerns over the sustainability of a nascent recovery in unemployment and other key metrics after devastating declines.



The Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies is down approximately 12% for the year to date, compared with a less than 1% decline in the S&amp;P 500 index, according to Refinitiv data. The Russell 2000 is up just 16.5% over the last 5 years, compared with an approximately 52% gain in the S&amp;P 500.



There are signs that recent economic gains may already be faltering. Real-time measures of the economy such as retail foot traffic and employee work hours have stalled recently, as states have implemented new restrictions to try to halt the spread of coronavirus pandemic.



Still, some investors believe a patient approach will win out over time.



Jon Christensen, a portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, said the recent jump in coronavirus cases will likely make small-caps more volatile until there is a vaccine or effective treatment.



As a result, Christensen is buying companies he believes will outperform over the next three years, despite recent hits to their share prices. He recently added shares of daycare provider Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/BFAM.N">BFAM.N</a>), which are down 23.1% for the year to date.



“Over the long term, even if we have more people working from home we know that Bright Horizon centers will continue to benefit from people needing childcare away from home,” he said.



Joe Van Cavage, a portfolio manager at Intrepid Capital, is focusing on companies that were gaining market share ahead of the economic shutdowns. He has purchased shares of discount retailers Burlington Stores Inc (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/BURL.N">BURL.N</a>) and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/OLLI.O">OLLI.O</a>), which he believes could benefit from a prolonged economic recession as consumers trade down and spend less.



With fewer companies providing earnings guidance, “we say ‘Let’s stay on the edge of the storm and see what we can scoop up and not fly into the middle and try to hold onto dear life,” he said.

wall street

WEEKEND READ: Wall Street Week Ahead: Fund managers navigate ‘Night of the Living Dead’ in small caps

On the largely virtual Africa Day celebrations, in May, the current African Union Chair&nbsp; South African President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke of “a new Africa”.&nbsp;



As the continent battles a mounting Pandemic crisis is this is simply more empty political rhetoric which tends to get dusted off every Africa Day or will a better Africa emerge from the flames of Covid-19? If so what will this “new Africa” actually look like?&nbsp;



President Ramaphosa believes the Covid-19 pandemic has started to create a unity that Africa aspires to but which has all so often proved elusive:&nbsp;



“Day by day, across our continent, we are seeing the unity that is our strength being put to the service of saving lives and supporting the vulnerable.&#8221;



In webinar after webinar there’s no doubt that many African business and political leaders share President Ramaphosa’s optimism. They sense this pandemic really is a turning point to bring about the change everyone on the continent is so hungry to see.&nbsp;



The Nigerian entrepreneur Tony Elumelu says “the pandemic presents an opportunity to reset Africa, create employment and eliminate poverty”:



“Africa must embrace the new normal. The disruptions we’ve seen across healthcare, logistics, supply chain, and the digital economy are here to stay. This presents a unique opportunity for a united Africa as a strong regional bloc acting in a coordinated fashion”.



He has called for a Marshall plan to galvanise the entire continent and mobilise people and resources to address Africa’s needs. That is also the conclusion of The African Union’s Special Envoy on Covid-19 Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala:



“We can see this pandemic as an opportunity for the continent. We have to specialise our countries to manufacture the things we need so we can trade with others. We need to produce good jobs for our young people and empower our women and youths and put them at the centre”



Several of these themes have also been expressed in many African-related webinars. There is much talk about how this Covid-19 crisis has smashed international supply chains and how the future is now regional. There are many calls for investment to encourage African SMEs to create local supply chains in their communities to boost employment.&nbsp;



While Africa hasn’t yet suffered the ravages of the Pandemic on the scale that has hit countries like the UK and USA, the impact has still been devastating. Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa is on course by contract by 2.8% this year, the deepest on record. The collapse in oil prices has hit Africa’s second and third&nbsp; largest economies- Nigeria and Angola- hard, while the collapse of tourism and a drop in demand for agricultural exports to Europe have&nbsp; devastated economies from Kenya and Ethiopia to Cote D’Ivoire, Mauritius and the Seychelles.&nbsp;



South Africa, the continent’s largest and most developed economy, is expected to experience its deepest recession for a century with a 7.1% contraction in output.



Covid-19 cases are now present in every African country. African leaders have come together quickly to help each other fight the pandemic. In contrast to countries like the US and the UK they saw the risk early.&nbsp;



Within days of the first case being reported in Egypt African Union Chair Ramaphosa called a meeting of African Union leaders, and he put his own South Africa into lockdown before a single death had been recorded. Now African Health and Finance Ministers meet every week in virtual conference to co-ordinate their response and share intelligence with the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.



Cameroon has sent planes to the DRC to help that country get medical support its more remote areas, the African Development Bank has denoted $4 million to South Sudan to bolster its fragile health system, while the African Union has launched a medical supplies platform for all 54 African countries. This is designed to make medical supplies, test kits and protective equipment available across the continent.



It feels a much better response than we’ve seen in many countries in the global north and President Ramphosa says he believes this collaboration can form the beginnings of a more united Africa in a post-Covid-19 world.&nbsp;



He’s assembled an all-star team of senior Africa leaders who are already working on plans to implement the lessons of the crisis and rebuild Africa’s damaged economies. Leaders like the former Head of the African Development Bank Donald Kaberuka and the former Nigerian Finance Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala see economic integration as a long overdue remedy to many of the continent’s economic woes and essential to developing a strong manufacturing base.



One key component of this plan will be the African Continental Free Trade Area which will be launched early next year to create the largest free trade area in the world, worth three trillion dollars with a market of more than a billion people.&nbsp;



The expectation is that this free trade area will encourage African manufacturers to trade with their neighbours, develop industrialisation, and reduce the traditional dependency on goods imported from outside the continent.&nbsp;



SMEs currently account for 90% of all businesses in Africa. Any transformation is going to require support for this sector through investment and training. These SMEs will be given training and financing to deliver solutions for Africa across manufacturing, healthcare, energy, digital innovation, infrastructure, agriculture and other sectors.&nbsp;



There are more than 600 Tech Innovation hubs across Africa. Africa’s digital revolution will emerge from them, especially in the sectors of e-commerce, distance learning for schools and universities to train better educated populations, and big opportunities in renewables and energy infrastructure to start plugging the continent’s electricity deficit.



Agribusiness is also thought to be ripe for investment. With the opportunity to move more and more of African’s millions of farmers from subsistence to commercial enterprises, there’s no reason why Africa can’t become the world’s bread basket.



The Covid-19 crisis has also brought about a realisation that Africa has great opportunities in health care. Africa currently imports most of its ventilators, masks and personal protective equipment for its doctors and nurses. It also imports almost 100% of its drugs and medicines to the tune of $15 billion a year. There are massive opportunities here for African companies to produce many of these materials, create generic drugs and local supply chains.&nbsp;



I’ve seen many more blueprints for the future of Africa in webinar discussions during this long lockdown. What unites them all is a general agreement that when we finally emerge from this pandemic&nbsp; it mustn’t be back to “business as usual.”&nbsp;



Peter Burdin is the former Africa editor for the BBC.

Peter Burdin

COMMENT: What will be the new Africa post COVID-19?

Five years into the African Development Bank’s ambitious New Deal on Energy for Africa (NDEA), the Bank’s investments are set to provide electricity access to around 13 million people and deliver about 55,000 km of distribution lines, and 6,700 km of transmission lines, of which 3,200 km are for regional interconnections.



The NDEA called for a substantial increase in investments to realize the Bank’s High 5 priority to “Light Up and Power Africa,” which aims to mobilize finance and expertise to expand access to reliable, sustainable energy for more than 200 million Africans through investments in power generation, inter-connections, transmission and distribution. This effort is critical to unlocking Africa’s vast economic potential, enabling the growth of value-adding industries and services, and, most importantly, unleashing the ingenuity of the continent’s 1.3 billion people.



The strategy was grounded in the recognition that partnerships are central to its success. In collaboration with African countries, the Bank’s interventions have ranged from setting up the right enabling policy environment, supporting utilities, to increasing the number of bankable energy projects. Additionally, the Bank is accelerating major regional projects and driving integration through the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa, whilst also supporting bottom-of-the-pyramid energy access programs.



Priority was given to investments in low-carbon technologies, set to contribute to over 2 GW of additional generation capacity by harnessing the large, hydro, solar, geothermal and wind resources of the continent. Yet this is only the beginning, as much of the work to date has been centered on setting up the right frameworks to mobilize different partners and alternative forms of capital to tackle the various challenges in the sector at country, sub-regional and regional levels.



Indeed, mobilizing partnerships and rolling out countrywide energy transformation are continuous works in progress. In 2019, as testament to the Bank’s efforts in enhancing dialogue and consensus, the G5 Heads of State endorsed the Bank’s Desert to Power initiative, intended to build the world’s largest solar zone across the Sahel by adding up to 10 GW of solar generation capacity through public and private interventions. The Yeleen Solar Program in Burkina Faso – the first of dozens of similar projects expected to flourish across the Sahel region – will provide energy to 150,000 households in rural areas through solar mini-grids and solar home systems, and an additional 52 MW of grid-connected solar generation, enough to power 30,000 new households.



Achieving the objectives of the New Deal on Energy for Africa will require a significant increase in private sector investments. The Bank catalyzes more private investments into independent power producers and off-grid projects through partnerships with project developers, commercial banks, private equity funds, institutional investors and other development finance institutions. Over the past five years, the Bank’s interventions reached $1.5 billion in private sector operations, corresponding to 1.7 GW additional generation capacity through independent power producers.



In addition to mobilizing concessional resources through bilateral and multilateral sources – notably from the European Union, Green Climate Fund and Climate Investment Funds – the Bank hosts the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA), one of the largest multi-donor technical assistance and concessional capital funds in the continent, designed to catalyze private sector participation in renewable energy.



In 2019, the Bank converted SEFA into a special trust fund to widen its interventions into green mini-grids to accelerate energy access to underserved populations; green baseload to support clean generation capacity; and energy efficiency to optimize energy systems and reduce energy intensity. SEFA is expected to contribute to the electrification of more than 7 million households by 2030.



The Bank is also actively supporting the mobilization of commercial capital through blended finance solutions. The Facility for Energy Inclusion, which was operationalized in 2019, is a $500 million investment platform organized around two funds – off-grid and on-grid – to provide flexible debt products, including in local currency, to emerging business models in the small-scale renewable energy space. The Facility for Energy Inclusion will contribute to more than 3 million new connections by 2030.



To enhance institutional performance and improve the enabling conditions to attract much needed investments, the Bank has also implemented initiatives such as the Electricity Regulatory Index to monitor and benchmark regulatory performance against best practices, the Sustainable Utilities Transformation Agenda, to build sustainable utilities and energy institutions, and the Africa Energy Portal to provide accurate, up-to-date data on Africa’s energy sector. In 2019, the African Development Bank reported that an additional 96 million African households had gained access to electricity between 2015 and 2019, with countries like Rwanda on track to achieve universal access by 2025. Despite this encouraging progress, close to 600 million Africans still lack electricity access and achieving universal access goals under SDG7 still requires greater and swifter efforts to meet the demands of Africa’s growing population.



Addressing electricity access remains a costly enterprise, with the International Energy Agency placing the price tag at around $120 billion annually through 2040, four times higher than current levels.



While our direct financial contribution is modest by comparison, we are confident that its judicious application to catalytic power projects, innovative financial structures, sector reform processes and acceleration of decentralized solutions will get us far in our mission.



Dr. Kevin Kariuki, Vice President, Power, Energy, Climate Change &amp; Green Growth, African Development Bank

VP Kevin Kanina Kariuki

COMMENT: A New Deal on Energy for Africa

The Fourth Industrial Revolution takes the automation of manufacturing processes to an unprecedented level, with the introduction of smart, autonomous systems that are capable of self-cognition, self-optimization and self-customization. While these processes present numerous opportunities for producers and manufacturers, it creates a heightened level of uncertainty for policymakers and development practitioners. This is partly due to the new challenges that will arise, especially in terms of employment, educational systems and industrial policies.



The June 16 1976 Uprising that began in Soweto and spread countrywide profoundly changed the socio-political landscape in South Africa, yet 44-year later youth unemployment is still a struggle. The youth &nbsp;&nbsp;unemployment rate in South Africa&nbsp;is expected to be 70 percent by the end of 2020, as Covid19 puts jobs at risk for about 1.6 million to 2.5 million in South Africa. The International Labour Organization estimates&nbsp;1.6 billion jobs to be lost because of COVID-19 that could make it even worse for South Africa.



Secondary challenges for youth are the current Education that’s not aligned with the needs of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Future Revolutions and financial exclusion at institutions of higher education and training.



Ultimately, the aim of Industrial revolution awareness for youth and families is to explore the potential impact of Industry 4.0 and digital technologies on developing countries and youth participation in the future job market, given the changing dynamics. The transformative potential of digital technologies is clear and must therefore be properly understood and utilized to take advantage of opportunities, while mitigating the challenges, specifically for the youth.



Youth training Forum to adapt with current and future industrial revolution focusing on Soft skills (uniquely human skills) such as creativity, complex problem-solving, emotional intelligence and critical thinking, which will be irreplaceable by machines; Technical skills ( Computer programming, coding, project management, financial management, mechanical functions, scientific tasks, technology-based skills); Entrepreneurship ( Initiative, innovation, creativity, industriousness, resourcefulness, resilience, ingenuity, curiosity, optimism, risk-taking, courage, business acumen, business execution) needs to be &nbsp;considered for the empowering of young people and ensuring inclusiveness and equality.



There is a general consensus that Socio-economic features in South Africa including structurally high unemployment and income and wealth inequality are longstanding and deeply-entrenched constraints on the country&#8217;s growth potential. Deep inequalities – South Africa&#8217;s income inequality is among the highest globally, as measured by the Gini index – and resistance to reforms from key stakeholders limit the government&#8217;s room to adopt and implement structural reforms.



Adaptive challenges&nbsp;are volatile, unpredictable, complex and ambiguous in nature.&nbsp;Solutions&nbsp;to this type of&nbsp;challenge&nbsp;usually require people to learn new ways of doing things, change their attitudes, values and norms and adopt an experimental mind-set.



South African progress has also been distributed unevenly, both within our demographics such as race, gender and generations. Adding to the problem, however, is the fact that certain sections of the population, often women, children, people with disabilities and majority groups, are systematically left behind.



Reducing poverty, youth unemployment and inequality must be the main objectives of South African private and public leaders.&nbsp; The 2030 Agenda aims to ‘end poverty in all its forms everywhere’ (SDG 1) and to ‘reduce inequality within and among countries’ (SDG 10). The significance of the issues of poverty and inequality is also manifested in the implementation principle of the 2030 Agenda ‘Leave no one behind’ (LNOB). Leaving no youth behind will assist South Africa not to create future unemployment and add to welfare spending to the continuous generated future dependence, a big risk for the nation that needs to be mitigated. The SDG 1 and SDG 10 of the 2030 Agenda and the ‘Leave no one behind’ principle needs to be practically strengthened for the South Africa, in building a developmental state.



South Africa will need to solve it’s intractable challenges to reinstate it’s economic development and growth objectives, through an economic investment collaboration to re-establish mining, agriculture and manufacturing sectors, to reactivate the services industries for a holistic economic development and growth national happiness improvement. Miyelani Mkhabela is an Executive Director at Antswisa Transaction Advisory Services

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Youth Day 2020: OPINION: Why a changing world means more trouble for South Africa’s youth.

JOHANNESBURG, 11 June 2020:- South Africa’s largest annual study of social media trends has revealed that Facebook remains the social platform of choice for marketing – but TikTok is rising fast among both brands and consumers. According to the 2020 edition of the SA Social Media Landscape, released this week by World Wide Worx and Ornico, almost a third of major brands intend to become active on TikTok, which is also the fastest growing social media platform among consumers. Fewer than 20% of brands have used it in the past year, but none believe they are doing so very effectively. These numbers are likely to change significantly during 2020. It is estimated that around 6-million South Africans are already using the platform. Nine out of ten major brands – just more than 89% – indicated they were active on Facebook, versus 77% on Twitter, 75% on LinkedIn and 68% on Instagram. “There was a common factor across all these platforms, however: a substantial drop in engagement from the previous year,” says Arthur Goldstuck, CEO of World Wide Worx and lead analyst on the project. “The one exception was LinkedIn, which saw a small increase in activity by major brands. LinkedIn also led the way in the proportion of older platforms that were intending to use it for the first time in the coming year: a large 21%. One could argue that LinkedIn is a social platform whose time has come.” Not surprisingly, lack of budget has emerged as the single most significant barrier to implementing social media strategies. A massive 18% are not allocating budget to social media, compared to only 1% last year. While Facebook remains the dominant platform among both brands and consumers, it has lost some appeal in terms of marketing budgets. “Facebook spend has plateaued,” says Oresti Patricios, CEO of Ornico. “This signals how brands are looking at prioritising their budgets across platforms, which can also talk to where brands look to increase their communication.” Patricios believes TikTok is set for explosive growth. “Launched in China in 2016, TikTok is seen as the new kid on the block in South Africa which marketers and communicators are scrambling to understand.” Goldstuck agrees: “The popularity of social media environments for brands has in the past been shown to be directly related to the level of usage of those platforms by marketers. Hence, TikTok is almost non-existent among big brands, as the marketers behind those brands are not active on TikTok.” Twitter and Instagram both showed strong growth in the past year, each reaching a user base of about 9-million. Data analysed for the SA Social Media Landscape 2020 report from the Target Group Index (TGI), a research survey among 30,000 South Africans coducted by Ask Afrika, shows that just over half of Instagram and Twitter users – 4,7-million on each – are highly active on these platforms. Contrary to the view that Twitter is primarily a vehicle for negative sentiment, data on all South African tweets over a 12 month period, provided for the project by audience intelligence company Brandwatch, shows a different picture. Of the tweets reflecting sentiment, 61% comprise positive sentiments, against 39% negative.  However, it is clear that even 39% remains a high proportion, and generates significant shade over the Twitter landscape in general.

Facebook holds on as TikTok invades Social Media in SA

By Chris Bishop



It is only 10 years ago? Isn’t it 100, or 1000 years ago? Surely, it seems a, far off, distant world.



On June 11it will be exactly 10 years since Siphiwe Tshabalala sprinted down the left like a dreadlocked gazelle and smacked in one of the sweetest goals in the history of African football. People remember where they were at that split second of the first ever world cup goal in Africa and will tell their grandchildren about it. I know I will.



This was the opening game of the 2010 FIFA World Cup; Tshabalala had the world at his feet and so it seemed did South Africa. For years we had been hearing about the billions that were coming with the world’s finest players and it looked good. Analysts predicted it would be billions in investment.



On that sunny winter afternoon we had got as right and perfectly timed as the Kagisho Dikgacoi &nbsp;&nbsp;through ball to Tshabalala. My fellow journalists and I had fought our way home, through the gridlocked streets, with meat and drink for the masses at my house. Amid the whiff of charcoal and wood the whole house was cooking along with the steaks; people of all creeds and colours hugged and wept as Tshabalala’s goal rattled into the net. I saw my first game at the age of seven, at my grandfather’s knee, and always had this romantic idea that the game could heal the troubles of the world. On that day I believed it.



As night fell all people seemed to think about was getting together. At four the following morning people were still arriving wearily at the party that had steadily acquired the energy of a Brazilian midfield. Many were fresh from the stadium with vuvuzela in hand; horns which they blasted out into the starry African skies from the balcony until their lips went blue. It was late, but few people were sleeping; even people who didn’t like football were swept up in it.



Weeks later, my wife and I drove to Bloemfontein and found ourselves behind the South African team coach. It was a touching drive; at every village and small dot on the map teachers led crowds of children from school to the side of the road to wave and cheer their national team on. I smiled behind the wheel, in the slipstream of the coach, with the thought of how many of those children would be inspired to do something with their lives in that moment. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The other day, in lockdown, I watched a documentary on the world cup portraying &nbsp;a nation confident and free and multi-coloured and proud. I shed a few tears for lost days of promise and splendour. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



It is a shame that, a decade on, a deadlier striker than Tshabalala – COVID who wears number 19 – is causing as much disappointment &nbsp;as the goal that cancelled out his stunning effort against Mexico on that sunny winter’s afternoon. &nbsp;



For a start COVID-19 has stopped football and the good feeling that comes with it, dead in its tracks. In 2010, people in football shirts were waltzing through the streets and shopping malls like Lionel Messi; ten years on those same people are shuffling through lockdown restrictions with the gloom of a wet Sunday. &nbsp;Millions of jobs will go and the majority of companies are set to collapse. The flow of tourism income that flowed from publicity around the world has dried to a trickle. &nbsp;



Yet, where there is life there is hope and history teaches us this. In 1964, Nelson Mandela shuffled in chains and short trousers, through the cold, to his cell on Robben Island with the prospect of dying behind bars. Forty years later he smiled and held the golden world cup trophy high before the eyes of the world &nbsp;as South Africa won the bid to stage Africa’s first ever tournament. Who would have thought it? &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Newsflash – It is 2030 and the South African economy turns itself around to prosperity with nerve, steel, hard work and concord between government and private business. Who would believe it? We have to.

REPETITION – HIGHER RESOLUTIONSouth Afr

THE WEEKEND READ : Where did our golden world cup wonder go?

My colleague Wale sees me return to the office from the site late one afternoon and then says to everyone, &#8220;Hey, Paul is back; let&#8217;s ask him what he thinks on our discussions this morning&#8221;.



Wale is quite witty, funny and knowledgeable about things; so immediately, my attention is spiked.



&nbsp;&#8220;If you were paid N1.5 million per month, would you be able to save up to N1 million every month?&#8221; he asks.



The response that comes out of my mouth is: &#8220;Why not N1.2 million&#8221;?



The entire room goes silent as everyone seems to expect me to answer differently



&#8220;Why do you have to spend as much as N500,000 every month on yourself? In my mind, I wondered, &#8220;One needs a plan to scale-up their financial flexibility,&#8221; I add.



I could never &nbsp;fathom why mostly young, unmarried guys and a few newly-weds, saw the need to spend N500,000 a month on living expenses, if they earned up to N1.5 million (roughly $3,947) monthly (which, by the way, is above the average income).



Well, long story short, a lot of my colleagues disagreed me, saying higher earnings mean more expenses. This sounds logical. However, do we really spend more on our needs, or on our wants? And do we find that we tend to spend more only when we have disposable cash, but spend less and still get by just fine when we’re seemingly out of disposable cash?



One fundamental factor that keeps the middleclass in the middle class is the continuous lack of self-discipline to live within their means, work with a budget, and consistently invest in well-designed schemes to scale up their financial flexibility.



I concur that saving substantially with a salary within the range of N100,000 &#8211; N200,000 ,which is the average income of Nigeria’s younger middleclass, might be tough, but not impossible. I believe that whether you earn N100,000 or N1 million monthly, with the desire to save, you will. Married or single, it all comes down to having a plan and sticking to it.



If you make irresponsible financial decisions, you will pay sooner than later. If you keep being overly generous,(when you really can&#8217;t afford it, one day, you&#8217;ll become broke, and those same people you were &#8220;helping&#8221; will accuse you of spending foolishly. Some of them might even abandon or mock you.



In personal finance, don’t cut your coat according to your size but according to your cloth. Societal pressures shouldn’t determine your spending habit. Understand that there&#8217;s nothing wrong if you&#8217;re the only one among your friends who uses an Android phone. You could also be the only one among them who can afford to make a N1 million in emergency spending. Appearances can be deceiving, and mostly are. You don&#8217;t have to look rich when you know you aren&#8217;t. There’s no wisdom in that. Create a realistic plan and work your way to real financial flexibility. And even if you make mistakes, don’t be too discouraged to try again. Put in the hard work to get it right; and you will.



Chukwubuikem Paul Anunaso, is a civil/structural engineer and writer in Lagos, Nigeria.

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OPINION: “You don’t have to look rich when you know you aren’t”  Why Nigerians should save.

By Chris Bishop



It says a lot about the personality of the last survivor of the trial that saw Nelson Mandela face death that when he emerged from 27 years in prison he returned to the same tiny township home he had been arrested in on a cold, crisp, winter’s evening nearly three decades before. The bedroom where rough tough police pushed their way in, on June 24 1963, to arrest Andrew Mlangeni, who was in bed with his wife June Johanna, is now his book-filled study where he worked for years to improve the life of his &nbsp;people; there is an uplifting metaphor for hope in life if ever there was one. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Not for Mlangeni the status symbol big empty multi-storey mansions of rich; he preferred to stay in the house be bought, in Dube in Soweto the Johannesburg township where he was born, close to his family and the people who supported his liberation politics. In his mid-eighties, a time when most people have retired, the member of Parliament Mlangeni opened up an office for his people in Dube.



“People can come here and we can help them,” he said of his new office in 2009. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The widely respected Mlangeni joined the struggle in 1951 – the year he met Mandela for the first time at a train station in Soweto. He was always destined for the struggle and often used to talk of the influence future African National Congress leader OR Tambo had on him as he taught him science and mathematics at school. &nbsp;&nbsp;



There is no doubt Mlangeni was a tough as nails; he fought exploitation as a young factory worker and led a bus strike in Johannesburg in the late 1940s- the days when violence and coercion were the order of the day. He trained as a soldier in China, in the early 1960s and soon after his return to South Africa he was captured in the famous police raid on Liliesleaf farm in Rivonia-the suburb that lent the trial its name.



As I write this, on June 6 2020 the sun is going down over Soweto on Mlangeni’s 95th birthday – an day to celebrate an achievement in both perpetuity and politics. Where ever he is tonight, Mlangeni will be surrounded by his comrades and friends; quite right too for one who sacrificed so much for many. I was lucky to spend time with him in the making of the CNBC Africa documentary Liliesleaf – the Untold Story and his bluff, no nonsense, persona left an indelible mark on me. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



In the dark days of the underground struggle, in the early 1960s, Mlangeni suffered more than most at the hands of bullying police. In the cells at the old Johannesburg Fort – now the Constitutional Court &#8211; where the Rivonia trialists were hauled in chains after the raid, his jailers were ruthless in seeking, in vain, information.



&nbsp;In a chance meeting in 2010, ironically in the colonial splendour of the Rand Club in downtown Johannesburg, he puffed on a Consulate cigarette as he told me of how the police tortured him with electrodes and dished out arguably the worst beating inflicted on any of the Rivonia trialists. He said at one point the police were waterboarding him; that is, holding a bag over his head while they poured water through.



“I felt my lungs fill up, I was drowning, I was gone…then one of the police hit me hard in the stomach and all of the water spurted out of me and I was OK!”



All of us listening over post lunch drinks, including the late veteran photographer, Alf Kumalo, who once had his skull cracked in police cells, laughed. If you have suffered through politics or journalism, especially as Alf had, you tend to see the funny side of the ugliest of moments.



We even chuckled over the fact that no evidence was directed towards Mlangeni during the Rivonia trial – meaning he spent a lifetime in prison for doing nothing wrong. He pleaded guilty, on principle, to all the charges, shoulder-to-shoulder with his comrades, in the hope the hearing would put apartheid South Africa on trial. It did, the so called terrorists in the dock caught the imagination of the world’s press and transformed into the Benjamin Franklins of Africa.



This principle cost Mlangeni 27 years of his life. In the back of the police van leaving the Palace of Justice in Pretoria, on their way to Robben Island, the accused, including Mandela and Mlangeni, held up three fingers to the young advocate George Bizos who had helped them escape the death sentence.



“Three years George and we will be out!”



It turned out not to be so. A life sentence in apartheid days, meant life, as Robben Island &nbsp;prisoner, the late Ahmed Kathrada, once commented to me with a hint of irony.



It is a measure of the man that Mlangeni said of his feelings about the 1964 life sentence, nearly half a century on: “We felt happy and proud &nbsp;that although the propaganda outside from the government that we were murderers, terrorists and rapists, people now knew we were none of these things and people knew what we were fighting for. That feeling that they know we are not thieves, that we are fighting for freedom, that is what kept us going.” How much would people give to hear a leader speak that way in 2020?

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Why 95-year-old struggle stalwart Andrew Mlangeni was “happy and proud” about a life sentence.

While hosting <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/04/09/afdb-announces-10bn-war-chest-to-fight-covid-19/">African Development Bank</a> (AfDB) President Akinwumi Adesina on a courtesy visit at State House on Tuesday, Nigerian President <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/06/01/grading-buharis-economic-performance-over-the-past-5-years/">Muhammadu Buhari</a> said the country will support Adesina in his bid to get re-elected as President of the multilateral bank.



This follows several <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/west-africa/2020/06/01/stop-this-culture-of-frivolous-allegations-former-world-bank-treasurer-arunma-oteh-defends-african-development-bank-president/">allegations of misconduct</a> against Adesina at the financial institution, of which he has denied.



The following statement provides further details:



PRESIDENT BUHARI TO AfDB PRESIDENT, ADESINA: I’LL STAND BY YOU



President Muhammadu Buhari says Nigeria will stand solidly behind Dr Akinwumi Adesina in his bid to get re-elected as President of the African Development Bank (AfDB)



The President spoke at State House, Abuja, Tuesday, while hosting Dr Adesina on a courtesy visit.



“In 2015, when you were to be elected for the first term, I wrote to all African leaders, recommending you for the position. I didn’t say because you were a People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Minister, and I belonged to the All Progressives Congress (APC), so I would withhold my support. I’ll remain consistent with you, because no one has faulted the step I took on behalf of Nigeria,” said President Buhari.



The President pledged that Nigeria would work with all other leaders and stakeholders in AfDB to ensure that Dr Adesina was elected for a second term built on the record of his achievements during his first term.



The African Union had already endorsed the incumbent AfDB President as sole candidate for the continent, but some other stakeholders are trying to ensure that Dr Adesina is re-investigated on some allegations, and rendered ineligible to run.



Giving a background to what was happening in the bank, Dr Adesina, a former Nigerian Minister for Agriculture, said the 16 allegations raised against him were trumped up, “and without facts, evidence, and documents, as required by the rules and regulations of the bank.”



He added that the Ethics Committee of the bank cleared him of all the allegations, and calls for fresh investigation by the United States of America, were against the rules.



“My defense ran into 250 pages, and not a single line was faulted or questioned. The law says that report of the Ethics Committee should be transmitted to the Chairman of Governors of the bank. It was done, and the governors upheld the recommendations. That was the end of the matter, according to the rules. It was only if I was culpable that a fresh investigation could be launched. I was exonerated, and any other investigation would amount to bending the rules of the bank, to arrive at a predetermined conclusion,” Dr Adesina said.



Stressing that the motive was to soil his name, and that of the bank, the AfDB President said he was proud to be Nigerian, and thanked President Buhari for his unflinching support.



“You helped me to get elected in the first place, and you have supported me robustly all along, and the African Union unanimously endorsed my re-election” he declared.



While commiserating with President Buhari on the death of the former Chief of Staff, Mallam Abba Kyari, Dr Adesina described Professor Ibrahim Gambari, new Chief of Staff as “a man of integrity, and of global standing.”

President Buhari to AfDB President Adesina: “I’ll stand by you”

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OPINION: “You don’t have to look rich when you know you aren’t” Why Nigerians should save.

Why 95-year-old struggle stalwart Andrew Mlangeni was “happy and proud” about a life sentence.

President Buhari to AfDB President Adesina: “I’ll stand by you”

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