Sarah Colenbrander | University of Leeds
Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing fast. Nigeria alone is projected to add 212 million urban dwellers by 2050, equivalent to the current population of Germany, France and the UK.
But focusing on population growth leads many to overlook the other unusual features of African cities. Urban economies across the region are markedly different from those of other cities around the world: they are more expensive to live in, more informal and less industrial.
In a recently published paper, we explore how these distinctive traits are increasing vulnerability.
Environmental risks range from everyday hazards such as waterborne diseases (cholera, diarrhoea, dysentery) to larger, less frequent disasters (tropical storms, flooding, fires). Their impact is much greater where people and governments can’t afford to invest in basic infrastructure.
In our research we demonstrate that African cities are too often developing in ways that perpetuate poverty and marginalisation. The amount of money that people have to spend on basic necessities, the precarious nature of their employment and their exclusion from the formal economy mean that they have limited resources to cope with environmental risk.
There are ways around these problems, but they need governments to work much more collaboratively with people living in informal settlements and working in the informal economy.
African cities are expensive
For many, African cities are inextricably linked with poverty. It therefore seems counter-intuitive that the cost of living is higher in urban Africa than in other cities in the global South.
One estimate suggests that food and drink cost 35% more in real terms in sub-Saharan African cities than in other countries, while housing is 55% more expensive.
This means that urban dwellers have to spend more of their income to enjoy the same quality of life. The average urban household in sub-Saharan Africa spends 39% to 59% of its budget on food alone.
Of course, there is considerable variation across the continent. Cities in The Gambia, Mauritania, Madagascar and Tanzania remain relatively affordable. Those in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi and Mozambique are the most expensive.
<div id="attachment_249934" style="width: 650px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-249934" class="wp-image-249934 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Angola_Luanda_Wikimedia.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426" />Luanda, Angola: Wikimedia</div>
The high price of basic goods and services means that people living in African cities have little money to spend on reducing risk, such as upgrading their homes, preventative health care or buying insurance.
African cities are not industrialising
Urbanisation has historically been closely linked to industrialisation. From Detroit to Manchester to Shenzhen, the rise of a vibrant manufacturing sector fuelled rapid population and economic growth in cities.
In sub-Saharan Africa, urbanisation is taking place without industrialisation.
One explanation for this unusual trend is that higher living costs mean that the labour force requires higher wages than competing cities in Asia. This makes it difficult for African cities to attract international capital.
In other cases, the export of commodities such as oil and diamonds have generated high income for a small share of people in countries such as Angola, Nigeria and Libya. The wealthy beneficiaries then create urban employment through demand for non-tradeable services such as retail, transport and construction.
Whatever the driver, urbanisation without industrialisation means that jobs and livelihoods too often remain low-skilled and poorly paid. Without the opportunity to develop skills and organise collectively, workers exert little influence over working conditions.
Instead, urban residents continue to depend on precarious livelihoods in the agricultural and services sectors. This means that they are susceptible to environmental shocks, such as extreme weather that can make it impossible for street vendors, waste pickers and other informal workers to ply their trade.
By comparison, manufacturing jobs have a number of spin offs. They offer income security and skill development. Local employers in the public and private sector benefit from new knowledge and skills, while workers can accumulate capital. This offers a path out of poverty. Few African cities are enjoying these positive spillovers.
The lack of industrialisation also means that there’s little political incentive for governments to invest in risk reducing infrastructure like sewers, drains and all weather roads.
African cities have a large informal economy
In many cities in sub-Saharan Africa, the informal economy is larger and more dynamic than the formal economy. The informal economy responds to demand when commercial banks are not willing to offer loans or when there isn’t enough housing. When formal jobs in industry or services are scarce, the informal economy absorbs much of the labour force. In Cotonou (Benin), Lomé (Togo) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), for example, the informal sector accounts for over 80% of non-agricultural employment.
Yet, in many African cities, government policies discriminate against these workers. For example, street vendors and waste collectors are often banned from using public spaces. They may even suffer harassment from government officials.
Yet they play a central role in increasing the resilience of the city.
Waste pickers recycle large amount of material, reducing pollution and maintain city cleanliness. This helps prevent diseases, particularly those spread by bacteria, insects and vermin that might otherwise feed or breed on garbage.
Street vendors play a critical role in providing and producing food, particularly to poor people living in urban areas.
<div id="attachment_249942" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-249942" class="wp-image-249942 size-medium" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Market_Ghana_Wikimedia-300x201.jpeg" alt="" width="300" height="201" />Tomato sellers at a market in Ghana: Wikimedia</div>
The informal economy is not perfect. Informality creates risks for consumers and workers. A lack of state oversight makes it difficult to enforce regulation, such as water treatment standards or minimum wages. Waste pickers in particular face severe health risks due to their work. Informal housing is often in hazard prone parts of the city.
But there can be little doubt that informal service provision or informal livelihoods are better than none at all.
Successful strategies to reduce risk therefore need to be developed in collaboration with informal workers in sectors such as food, water, housing and solid waste management. Similarly, partnerships with communities living in informal settlements can ensure that the voices of vulnerable urban residents are heard, and their needs are addressed.
Only through a more flexible and inclusive approach will African cities be able to manage the risks associated with their unique economic development path.

Op-Ed: The unique risks facing African cities

A Zimbabwean poultry farm has reported a second outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N8 bird flu, two months after it first occurred, the state-owned Herald newspaper said on Monday.
Lanark farm, a commercial poultry producer 25 km (15 miles) south of the capital Harare, was hit again by the flu virus last week after it was first reported on June 2.
Josphat Nyika, acting principal director for veterinary services, said all the affected birds were destroyed and the farm would remain under quarantine for three months. Highly pathogenic among fowl, the strain poses little risk to human health.
In June, Zimbabwe indefinitely banned poultry products from South Africa, which had announced an outbreak of avian flu.
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Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; editing by Ed Stoddard and Jason Neely
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Zimbabwe poultry farm reports second avian flu outbreak

At least hundreds of Senegalese voters were prevented from casting their ballots in parliamentary elections on Sunday because of delays in issuing identity cards, voters and officials said.
In an embarrassing turn for one of West Africa&#8217;s most stable democracies, voters were left off voting lists at polling stations or told they did not have the right documents to vote.
Opposition leaders have criticised President Macky Sall for trying to stamp out political opposition in a contentious campaign.
Political demonstrations in Dakar are routinely halted by a heavy police presence and the liberal use of tear gas. And Khalifa Sall, the popular mayor of the capital, Dakar, and one of Sall&#8217;s main competitors, was jailed in March for embezzling public funds, charges that Sall says are politically motivated.
The central problem in Sunday&#8217;s vote was the delay in issuing biometric identity cards. Interior Minister Abdulaye Daoudada Diallo said early last week that 30 percent of the cards had still had not been distributed.
That caused an outcry from opposition politicians and voters who had spent weeks trying to obtain the new cards so they could vote. Sall asked the constitutional council to let voters use their card registration receipts and passports.
But voters at a polling station in the Point E area of Dakar found that those documents were not enough.
&#8220;I was registered in the list to vote, but I don&#8217;t have my up-to-date voting card, so I can&#8217;t exercise my right to vote,&#8221; said Imam Diallo, a 20-year-old footballer who had his I.D. card registration receipt.
About 10 others said they were unable to vote for the same reason. Local radio stations said that thousands of Senegalese were turned away.
&#8220;What happened is a shame for a country like Senegal that has been voting since 1848,&#8221; said Abdoulaye Wade, the 91-year-old former President and opposition candidate, who had returned from France to take part in the elections.
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Serigne Babacar Kane, Dakar&#8217;s top administrative prefect, told Reuters that voters needed to get their registration receipts verified and stamped by local officials beforehand, though many said they were unaware of this. He was unable to say how many people could not vote.
President Sall, who has prided himself on advancing transparency and stable, progressive democracy in Senegal since his election victory in 2012, welcomed the &#8220;smooth running&#8221; of the elections, he said, after casting his vote on Sunday.
&#8220;I hope that people will vote calmly and return home calmly,&#8221; he said.
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Reporting By Diadie Ba and Cheikh Mane, writing by Edward McAllister, editing by Larry King
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Senegal parliamentary elections marred by voting problems

Ravin Naidu | Alcatel-Lucent Enterprise
As with most other technologies, data centres have to keep on evolving through the addition of new features and updates to meet increased user needs, ever-increasing capabilities of mobile devices and apps.
Moreover, this rapid pace of innovation has to keep on ticking while data centres have to become more efficient in terms of power, the office real estate that they consume, cooling and in terms of the value that they offer.
For this to happen, corporate data centre infrastructures must evolve. Mobility, real-time applications and virtualisation have created new demands that outdated data centre architectures are simply not equipped to handle.
Automate your network
The next critical phase in network evolution is automation of the data centre network. Server virtualisation has enabled rapid application deployment and increased movement of applications between virtualised servers or data centres.
Traditional networks are not designed to handle this, causing poor application performance and latency as networks and administrators adapt to virtualised internal changes. Automation at the network control layer eliminates latency and optimises application delivery.
Data centre networks must be intelligent
Application Fluent Networks automatically react to the dynamic requirements of virtualised workloads, such as following virtual machine movement. Furthermore, quality of service (QoS) is automatically adjusted for application flows within the data centre and across the network, as a result of these data centres being application aware. Application Fluent Networking is basically the first stage of software defined networking (SDN).
SDN makes networks adaptable to applications, providing automation at the network level that parallels the automation and flexibility at the server level. SDN bridges the gap between application control and network control elements, optimising application delivery and performance across the entire data centre network and the converged campus LAN.
The smartest data centre solutions for organisations of all sizes
For larger enterprises, application fluency enables the corporate data centre to become a multi-site private cloud, by extending layer-2 connectivity between multiple data centre sites. Hybrid cloud models are also supported, so public cloud-based services can be seamlessly delivered on the corporate network.
Conversely, advanced mesh architecture allows top-of-rack switches to be directly connected together. This means small and medium-sized enterprises can benefit from a full-featured fabric with built-in automated virtual machine mobility. The mesh is less complex, highly scalable and delivers unmatched performance at a fraction of the cost.
Once companies have an intelligent data centre in place, users will be able to access rich-media applications anytime, anywhere from smartphones, tablets as well as other devices. In addition, they will be empowered to be more productive and enabled to communicate and collaborate with colleagues, partners, suppliers and customers from anywhere, anytime, using the device type and platform of their choosing.

Op-Ed: Making intelligent data centres smarter for business

Tomas Stubbsh, Pamela Abbott | University of Cambridge,University of Aberdeen
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On 4 August 2017, Rwandans head to the polls to elect a president. They will choose between Frank Habineza, Philippe Mpayimana and the incumbent Paul Kagame.
Most observers expect a landslide victory for Kagame. But there’s controversy around the election because of a 2015 constitutional amendment that allowed him to seek a third seven-year term followed by two further five-year terms.
The Rwandan election is being watched closely by observers concerned about an erosion of democracy in the country. While some of these concerns are valid, they must be qualified against Rwanda’s historical and developmental realities.
At best, Rwanda can be characterised as an illiberal democracy, but this should not detract from the current regime’s successes. Nor is it a suggestion that Kagame shouldn’t lead. Under his tenure the country has enjoyed year-on-year socio-economic progress. In most situations, this would secure electoral victory.
<h2>The Kagame enigma</h2>
Kagame is the presidential candidate for the country’s ruling political party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). He commanded the rebel force that ended the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi. He then became vice president and, in 2000, president in the transitional government.
In 2003, he was elected president and then reelected in 2010. While he is generally seen as popular in the country, opinions around Kagame are polarised.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright wp-image-43491 size-medium" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/paul_kagame_wikipedia-300x235.jpg" alt="Rwanda’s economy on the right path: IMF" width="300" height="235" />
Some observers highlight the country’s robust economic growth record, poverty reduction, improvements in health access and outcomes, control of corruption, and relative stability achieved under Kagame’s leadership.
In a 2015 referendum Rwandans voted overwhelmingly in favour of Kagame ruling until 2034. Despite these accolades, Kagame is strongly criticised for the country’s tightly controlled political space.
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have accused Kagame’s government of creating a climate of fear through attacks on political opposition, journalists and human rights defenders.
<h2>The challengers</h2>
Frank Habineza is leader of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, founded in 2009 but prevented from registering until 2013. In 2010, Habineza fled into exile following the murder of the party deputy, André Kagwa Rwisereka, but returned in 2012.
Habineza offers alternatives to programmes started by the RPF which he claims have become a burden on Rwandans. These include the crop and land intensification programmes. He has indicated that he would revisit land ownership and policies that enable the reclaiming of private property for public use.
Philippe Mpayimana is an independent candidate with no previous political track record. A former journalist and writer, he has authored several books on Rwanda’s social and political dynamics. Mpayimana lived in exile from 1994 until early 2017.
Mpayimana says that his main project will be to transform the countryinto a state with full democratic rights. Among other things he has said he will strengthen democratic institutions and restore the country’s culture and traditions.
<h2>Becoming a candidate</h2>
The legal criteria for becoming a presidential candidate are set out in the country’s electoral code and monitored by the National Electoral Commission. The commission stipulates that independent presidential aspirants must present 600 signatures, with at least 12 from each of the 30 districts of the country before they can be registered.
For this election, three potential candidates &#8211; Diane Rwigara, Fred Barafinda and Gilbert Mwenedata &#8211; did not meet this requirement.
Registered political parties can also field presidential candidates. But political parties are required to meet strict criteria and are locked out if they recognise ethnic divisions, deny the genocide, or have links with genocidaire militant groups.
As a result, several political parties have not been registered.
Of Rwanda’s 11 registered political parties, nine have opted to back Kagame. Of the remaining two, the Democratic Green Party fielded Habineza as candidate while the Social Party Imberakuri chose neither to field a candidate nor to back any other aspirant.
<h2>An illiberal democracy</h2>
For a country to be considered a democracy its politics must be competitive, participatory, and fair. Simply holding elections is not enough.
While elections in Rwanda are fair, with a low likelihood of pre-electoral violence or flagrant electoral malpractice, the Rwandan political system is neither participatory nor competitive.
Kagame is the certain victor because the relevant institutions are stacked in his favour. For one, the other candidates lack sufficient exposure and funding to conduct a successful campaign. They were only confirmed as candidates and thus allowed to begin fund raising on July 7th.
Meanwhile, the RPF is extremely well-resourced thanks to its private business arm Crystal Ventures Ltd, which is one of Rwanda’s largest investment companies. In effect, Kagame is the only candidate with the funds to campaign nationwide.
A second issue is access to information. The local media self-censors, choosing not to write anything critical of Kagame and the RPF. The majority of citizens only have access to domestic news outlets. Kagame will therefore appear as the best candidate.
<h2>Non-adversarial politics</h2>
What is sometimes interpreted by Western observers as a lack of political space is typically a failure to understand how politics is practised in Rwanda.
Rwanda remains an illiberal democracy in large part because of its prevailing political settlement. With the genocide against the Tutsi still in recent memory, Kagame and the RPF have committed to power-sharing only with parties that are firmly aligned against ethnic sectarianism.
As such, the government rules through dialogue and consensus. Decisions are made only once there is broad agreement among the political parties. Formal mechanisms of dialogue and consensus also permeate through society, even down to the village level. This has been the foundation on which Rwanda has built its post-genocide society.
This political settlement is grounded in the fear that a more adversarial style of policymaking and debate could give rise to extremism and undermine stability. And while there are still significant political and policy debates in Rwanda, these are framed in non-adversarial terms. Those who present themselves as divisive and adversarial, as did barred candidate Diane Rwigara, are excluded from politics.
It is worth pointing out that another East African country is in the middle of election fever. In Kenya, the election cycle reinforces deep ethnic divides, where political parties act as campaign vehicles for ethnic barons.
This reminds us that while politics in Rwanda does not fulfil Western democratic standards, competitive elections are no panacea.

Election guide: what you need to know about the Rwandan presidential poll

Tanzania is not targeting foreign employees of Acacia Mining Plc, the immigration department said, adding that the temporary detainment of one the London-listed miner&#8217;s senior staff was part of wider checks in an immigration crackdown.
Gold miner Acacia said on Friday that Tanzanian authorities had prevented one of its senior staff from leaving Dar es Salaam airport.
After legal intervention, he was released and his passport was returned. &#8220;The immigration department &#8230; does not target only Acacia Mining employees,&#8221; the Tanzania Immigration Services Department said in a statement late on Saturday. Acacia, the country&#8217;s largest miner, said last week it had been hit with a $190 billion tax bill and warned it would have to close its flagship Bulyanhulu mine by Sept. 30 if a government ban on its exports is not lifted.
&#8220;We are required by law to question any Tanzanian citizen or foreigner regardless of his position &#8230; and release them without charge if their immigration papers are in order as in the case of employees of Acacia Mining who were recently questioned,&#8221; the immigration department said.
It added that there were no factors outside of the requirements of the Immigration Act that would prompt the department to restrict the entrance or exit of Acacia&#8217;s expatriate employees.
President John Magufuli has threatened to shut all gold mines in the country if mining companies delay talks to resolve a dispute over billions of dollars in back taxes which the government says they owe. Majority-owned by Canada&#8217;s Barrick Gold Corp, Acacia says it is in full compliance with the law and has paid all relevant taxes. Magufuli&#8217;s stance has rocked the mining sector in Tanzania, Africa&#8217;s fourth-largest gold producer, and driven Acacia&#8217;s shares down by more than 50 percent this year. Barrick, which owns a 63.9 percent stake in Acacia, said last week it has an &#8220;open mind&#8221; and is &#8220;very positive&#8221; about talks getting underway with Tanzania to resolve an export ban on gold and copper concentrates. Magufuli and Barrick Chairman John Thornton agreed at a mid-June meeting to hold discussions to resolve the row. Acacia has two mines affected by the ban which Tanzania introduced in March. They account for some 6 percent of Barrick&#8217;s 2017 gold production forecast.
Reporting by Fumbuka Ng&#8217;wanakilala; editing by George Obulutsa and Jason Neely

Tanzania says not targeting Acacia staff in immigration crackdown

South African Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba said on Friday he was worried about the influence of a wealthy family accused of using its friendship with President Jacob Zuma to secure contracts with state-owned companies.
Gigaba&#8217;s unusually strong comments came the day after power utility Eskom suspended its chief financial officer Anoj Singh pending an investigation into allegations that he granted preferential treatment to firms linked to the Gupta family, business friends of Zuma.
Gigaba is close to Zuma and seen as an ally. He took office after Zuma fired highly respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan in a March cabinet reshuffle.
Singh, the Gupta family and Zuma have denied any wrongdoing.
&#8220;Like all South Africans, I am very worried about them and I think we need to establish fact from allegation,&#8221; Gigaba told the Cape Talk radio station when asked about a slew of leaked emails that have detailed the Gupta family&#8217;s business dealings.
&#8220;The allegations are quite damaging to the investor perceptions, as well as ratings agencies, of the governance of our state-owned companies,&#8221; Gigaba said.
He also said he supported the establishment of a commission of judicial enquiry, called for last year by South Africa&#8217;s top anti-graft watchdog, to investigate the mounting allegations swirling around the family.
A number of international companies have been drawn into the widening scandals, including Germany&#8217;s SAP and Software AG, and global consultancy McKinsey.
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Reporting by Ed Stoddard; Editing by James Macharia and Mark Heinrich
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South Africa finance minister says worried about Gupta family

Dumisani Bengu | Head: Franchise Africa, Barclays Africa
With South Africa’s economy seeing consecutive negative growth that has placed it in the grips of a technical – but very real – recession, it will come as no surprise that there are adverse implications for business growth as customers keep on cutting their spending and tightening that much-written-about belt.
One industry that has successfully fought these headwinds is franchising. It has proven in many countries, to be resilient even in the face of extensive macroeconomic difficulties.
This is borne out by the fact that the sector &#8211; which grew by 10 percent even at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 &#8211; has continued to grow every year.  Year-to-date, Absa’s franchise book has shown 15 percent growth on loans over the same period last year. This illustrates a remarkably healthy appetite for franchising and pursuing opportunities in the various industries that comprise the overall sector.
What typically safeguards these types of businesses from broader economic challenges is the established trust they have with consumers. This stands franchises in good stead when consumers are watching their spending more carefully. It is a natural shift as they look for absolute certainty from the brands and companies they support – and franchises, with their well-known and trustworthy brands, offer that security.
There are 17 business sectors that fall under the franchising umbrella in South Africa. The four largest contributors to the growth of the franchising – and, by association, the where the greatest opportunities lie – are the services sector, which encompasses health and beauty, auto and funeral services, among others.
This burgeoning sector makes up 27 percent of the franchising market. Restaurants and Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) account for 24 percent, while Retail out-muscles Fuel with 16 percent versus Fuel’s 11 percent.
Interested in franchising? Consider this. 
The services sector remains the fastest growing within the larger ecosystem and is set to continue to offer promising business prospects. However, even with a positive forecast, the industry is at the mercy of an increasingly competitive business landscape and there are certain tips that prospective franchisees should heed if they are hoping to make the move into franchising:
<ul>
<li>Look for Mergers and Acquisitions (M&amp;A) opportunities to find the balance between value and good quality: With substantial pressure being exerted on the country’s economy and a challenging operating environment leading to many of the bigger, more secure players buying out the smaller companies, those looking to enter the franchising sector need to find the sweet spot between value, quality and price – particularly in the cost-sensitive retail and QSR spaces.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Take into account the entire franchising value chain: A franchise with a robust brand reputation, integrity and equity that is able to excite customers is a must. But so is an agreement between franchisors and franchisees that is fair, sustainable and protects the rights of both parties. Franchising is a codified business, so potential franchisees need to ensure that there is a comprehensive and elaborate franchising manual in place.</li>
</ul>
o   Consider the operations process: Interested parties should look at the quality and consistency of training programmes in order to ensure that they are able to stay at the forefront of their chosen industry.
o   Don’t forget the importance of sales and marketing: A strong sales and marketing strategy is priceless, so it is critical to make sure upfront that the sales and marketing strategy is strong.
o   Look to implement a service model that is robust and places customers at its heart: High-intensity strategies that enhance service delivery are the markers of successful franchises. Anyone looking to make the move into any sphere of the franchising world needs to make sure that they place efficient service delivery on top of their list of priorities.
o   Prioritise a streamlined supply chain: A well-run franchise relies on bulk buying, centralised distribution and well-organised logistics systems. If a franchisee is able to tick those boxes, they will benefit from an efficient supply chain and it will be that much easier to focus on guaranteeing customer satisfaction.
<ul>
<li>Make sure that you are following a passion: Even with the extra layer of protection that comes from buying into a trusted brand, opening a franchise takes a lot of hard work, time and commitment. So it makes sense to choose a field that there is some connection with and passion for in order to make the inevitable sacrifices that come with starting a business worthwhile.</li>
</ul>
Franchising ultimately comes with multiple benefits &#8211;  not least of which is the safety blanket of the business owner knowing that there is a partner to hold their hand and guide them through the pitfalls and challenges of opening their own business. Banks tend to look at funding applications more favourably because of the added security of a franchise’s established customer base in the market.
Undoubtedly, however bleak the economic outlook may seem, there are always those who find the gap in the market. Typically, franchising offers more gaps than other industries. This is why Absa continues to offer a basket of financial instruments and lending solutions to help build the sector and partner with those who see beyond the challenges to the opportunities for growth.

Franchising: a safe bet in a tough economic climate?

François Conradie | NKC African Economics
The government has announced new development plans in the region of Al-Hoceima, where protest energy has been high for some month, in an effort to defuse the protest movement.
One of the main demands of the hirak al-chaabi, the people’s movement, has been an improvement in healthcare infrastructure; on Monday, July 24, health Minister Houcine Louardi duly announced that six new health centres would be built in the region and 28 others re-equipped, for a total budget of Dh65m. He was speaking in Al-Hoceima itself.
The health minister’s promise was the latest in a number of efforts made by the government over the summer to defuse the Hirak, which was born out of a spontaneous movement of dissent that followed the gruesome death of a fishmonger in Al-Hoceima in October, in an incident that involved the police.
Protests have been taking place at a higher level since late May, when an informal leader of the movement, Nasser Zafzafi, and a number of other protesters were arrested.
There was an especially notable protest on Thursday, July 20, which was repressed with some force by the police. One protester is reportedly brain-dead after a blow to the head.
We heard from Moroccan sources while on a recent country visit that there were differences between the army and police about how to deal with protesters, with the army urging restraint and the police keen for a more forceful response.
Morocco’s interior ministry retains some institutional memory of its brutal character in the ‘years of lead’ under the late King Hassan II and the notorious Driss Basri, and the persistence of these instincts is a big part of the problem.
More than 200 people are reportedly in detention for their roles in protest, not only in the Rif region around Al-Hoceima but also in other towns and cities in Morocco, where sympathetic expressions of dissent have been taking place.
Ministers have been banned from going on summer holiday, and King Mohammed VI has reportedly been paying closer attention to projects that have been neglected in the Rif.
Justice Minister Mustapha Ramid – from the Islamist Party for Justice and Development (PJD), whose relationship with the palace and the Moroccan old guard is worsening – has explicitly mentioned “the dysfunction of development programmes in the region” as a catalyst for the protest movement.
The official narrative – that the king was unaware of delays in the implementation of programmes in the Rif, and that politicians must take the blame – is not entirely honest, but if accepted is probably best for stability.
It is likely that there will be some sackings in the coming days and weeks, and some analysts have started talking about the possibility that the king might use his wide-ranging royal prerogatives to pardon some detainees on Throne Day, on Sunday, July 30; such public holidays are usually the occasion for some pardons of prisoners or detainees.
Promises made by government have not succeeded in calming protesters, whose main demand at the moment is the liberation of their comrades.
The tightly controlled media environment in Morocco further complicates analysis and has led Moroccans on social media and in conversation to draw parallels (exaggerated, in our opinion) with events in 2011 in Libya, Syria and Egypt.
The events are only referred to obliquely in mainstream dailies and usually not at all on television news. When there is coverage, it is apparent that editors are seeking to paint the protesters in the worst possible light, to the extent of being prepared to falsify reporting.
So two television channels – SNRT and Medi1TV – received warnings from the Higher Council on Audiovisual Communication (CSCA) for using footage of rioting related to a football match in March and telling viewers the scenes were of more recent hirak-related unrest.
Mobile internet services have been sporadically shut down in Al-Hoceima, and on Thursday Hamid Al-Mahdaoui, news editor for Al-Badil, was arrested for encouraging people to protest.
We think Moroccans’ fears of actual armed conflict are exaggerated – the Muslim Brotherhood, which was instrumental in boosting protest energy in other countries in 2011, is internationally weakened and has never been very strong in Morocco, while international actors like Saudi Arabia and the US which have backed anti-regime forces elsewhere are friendly with Rabat.
But the problems that sparked the Hirak run deep, and addressing them in a sustainable way will require more than a few Dh65m cheques.
Healthy economic development in the kingdom can only come at the expense of elite interests, including those of the billionaire king himself, and all recent signs indicate that the elite has only become more ambitious.
These moves have also sidelined the PJD, even though it came first in the 2016 general election, and many Islamists will accordingly tend to be more partial to street action or worse, to look into joining jihadist networks.
The environment will remain feverish, especially in the Rif, and any real police violence will exacerbate matters.

Morocco – Some development promises look inadequate to calm protests

Barclays reported a 1.2 billion pound ($1.57 billion)attributable first half loss on Friday after taking a 2.5 billion pound hit from the sale of its Africa business and calling an end to its restructuring.
The British bank said it had made a 1.4 billion pound loss on the sale of 33 percent of Barclays Africa Group, and took a further 1.1 billion pound impairment charge on the sale.
Barclays in June cut its stake in Barclays Africa Group to 15 percent, ending more than 90 years as a major presence in the continent as it shifts its focus back to Britain and the United States.
The losses from the sale of unwanted assets including the Africa business showed the costs of the bank&#8217;s restructuring under Chief Executive Jes Staley, who has championed Barclays&#8217; investment banking business as a means of boosting revenues.
The bank completed the run-down of its non-core division of other assets earmarked for sale to below its goal of 25 billion pounds worth of assets, meaning the remainder can be folded back in to Barclays.
&#8220;Accomplishing both of these milestones marks an end to the restructuring of the Barclays Group, and brings forward the date when our shareholders can benefit from the full earnings power of this business,&#8221; Staley said in a statement.
Staley announced a new long-term goal for Barclays of a greater than 10 percent return on equity, without giving a timetable for reaching that.
The bank&#8217;s return on equity excluding the Africa loss and conduct charges was 8 percent at the end of the first half.
Barclays shares fell 1.3 percent by 0700 GMT.
The sale of the Africa unit boosted the bank&#8217;s core capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength and a source of concern for Barclays in recent years, to 13.1 percent.
Barclays posted a half-year profit before tax of 2.3 billion pounds compared with 2 billion pounds for the same period a year ago, before the impact of the Africa sale was included.
That was worse than the 2.7 billion pounds average estimate of analysts&#8217; forecasts compiled by the bank.
<h3 data-reactid="49">Weak Trading</h3>
In Barclays&#8217; investment bank, revenue at the markets division fell 5 pct in the first half to 2.6 billion pounds, as low volatility caused a 20 pct fall in earnings at its macro trading business. That was offset by a stronger showing in credit trading where revenue was up 18 pct, while its equities performance was flat compared with a year ago.
The mixed trading performance followed that of Barclays&#8217; U.S. rivals, which earlier this month saw profits slump amid low volatility levels in markets that have left investors struggling to make directional bets.
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Since taking over in December 2015, Staley has scaled back the bank&#8217;s geographic footprint and emphasized investment banking, although his efforts have been clouded by U.S. and British investigations.
The former JPMorgan banker has faced investor criticism following his attempts to unmask a whistleblower, which Barclays insiders fear could unseat him if the findings of inquiries are damning.
Barclays faces other regulatory obstacles, with an ongoing probe by Britain&#8217;s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) into its 2008 cash call at the height of the financial crisis and allegations by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) over mortgage mis-selling.
The bank also took a higher than expected 700 million pound charge for mis-selling payment protection insurance, in what is Britain&#8217;s costliest consumer banking scandal.
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Reporting by Lawrence White and Andrew MacAskill; editing by Alexander Smith
</div>

Barclays suffers $1.6 billion first-half loss from Africa sale

Alphabet Inc&#8217;s Google aims to train 10 million people in Africa in online skills over the next five years in an effort to make them more employable, its chief executive said on Thursday.
The U.S. technology giant also hopes to train 100,000 software developers in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, a company spokeswoman said.
Google&#8217;s pledge marked an expansion of an initiative it launched in April 2016 to train young Africans in digital skills. It announced in March it had reached its initial target of training one million people.
The company is &#8220;committing to prepare another 10 million people for jobs of the future in the next five years,&#8221; Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai told a company conference in Nigeria&#8217;s commercial capital of Lagos.
Google said it will offer a combination of in-person and online training. Google has said on its blog that it carries out the training in languages including Swahili, Hausa and Zulu and tries to ensure that at least 40 percent of people trained are women. It did not say how much the programme cost.
Africa, with its rapid population growth, falling data costs and heavy adoption of mobile phones, having largely leapfrogged personal computer use, is tempting for tech companies. Executives such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd&#8217;s chairman Jack Ma have also recently toured parts of the continent.
But countries like Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, which Google said it would initially target for its mobile developer training, may not offer as much opportunity as the likes of China and India for tech firms.
Yawning wealth gaps mean that much of the population in places like Nigeria has little disposable income, while mobile adoption tends to favour more basic phone models. Combined with bad telecommunications infrastructure, that can mean slower and less internet surfing, which tech firms rely on to make money.
Google also announced plans to provide more than $3 million in equity-free funding, mentorship and working space access to more than 60 African start-ups over three years.
In addition, YouTube will roll out a new app, YouTube Go, aimed at improving video streaming over slow networks, said Johanna Wright, vice president of YouTube.
YouTube Go is being tested in Nigeria as of June, and the trial version of the app will be offered globally later this year, she said.
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Reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram; Additional reporting by Paul Carsten in Abuja; Editing by Adrian Croft
</div>

Google hopes to train 10 million people in Africa in online skills: CEO

Dan Paget | University of Oxford
&nbsp;
The Tanzanian government has asked Acacia Mining, a subsidiary of the world’s largest gold mining company Barrick Gold, to pay approximately USD$190 billion in revised taxes, interest and fines. This latest development is a game changer in a dispute that pits mining companies against President John Magufuli’s government. It makes both nationalisation and mine closures more likely.
Until this revised tax notice was served, the overhaul of Tanzania’s mining regime had a great deal going for it. Previous policy had given miners an easy ride. Low taxes and generous license terms were sweetened by further tax breaks and exemptions.
Tanzania’s mining sector contributes nearly 3% to GDP annually. Tanzanite and diamond mines are scheduled to be joined by large uranium, coal and iron projects which are under development, but the largest operational mines produce gold. Acacia and AngloGold Ashanti run 4 large gold mines between them that extracted 37 tonnes of gold last year. According to the World Gold Council, Tanzania is the fourth largest gold producer in Africa.
Recently three 3 laws were passed that squeeze the mining companies for revenue. They include shareholding entitlements, higher royalty rates and further tax rises.
The new legislation introduced sweeping new requirements intended to support the country’s industrial goals. Mining companies are now required to train Tanzanians, give preference to local suppliers and to source from joint ventures between domestic and foreign firms if domestic suppliers cannot be found. These rules mean additional costs for miners, but a boost for Tanzanian employees and firms that could become nascent industries.
While the new requirements were all painful for mining companies, they promised significant benefits for Tanzania and merited a try. Ultimately, engineers and economists will have to calculate whether mining companies can make those concessions without operating at a loss.
But the questions are technical and the answers are not well established. It’s possible that the mines could still be economically viable even after this policy overhaul.
Whether its tactics were good or not, the Tanzanian government had reasons for adopting a brazen approach to negotiations with the mining companies too. After it announced a series of changes in 2016, it was confronted by mining company intransigence. Their development agreements enshrined protections against all manner of intrusions and impositions. They seemed resolved to impede changes by resorting to delaying tactics, legal obstacles and arbitration.
But Magufuli’s decision to scrap development agreements between the government and mining companies and to prohibit international arbitration sent a clear message: companies didn’t have a lot of choice.
His unilateral and combative approach smacks of domestic politics. But it could also serve to dissuade the mining companies from a course of resistance.
It showed mining companies how far the Tanzanian government was willing to go and how much they wanted. It quickly provoked concessions. Acacia agreed to some of the terms two weeks ago. But if it hoped these would placate Magufuli, they were wrong.
<h2>Counting to $190 billion</h2>
Until the tax bill was tabled, it seemed as though Magufuli wanted a new settlement with the mining companies. Now it looks as though he wants new mining companies.
To put the USD$190 billion figure in context, all the proven and probable gold in Acacia’s mines is worth just over USD$10 billion at today’s prices. Including sites under exploration and the further inferred and estimated deposits, there is a further USD$24 billion worth of gold, and further deposits of silver and copper.
After these minerals are mined and processed, profits will be just a fraction of that. And even if there is as much gold as guessed, it will take decades to liberate it. In short, Acacia can never make enough to pay USD$190 billion in taxes. It would close the mines before they paid a sum that tall.
The sum of USD$190 billion was reached in fines, interest and backdated tax revisions in light of two presidential committees. The first reported that Acacia had grossly under reported the amount of gold in containers of copper-gold concentrate bound for export. The second estimated the revenue that the government had lost over the years, and the tax demand takes that into account.
If the committee findings were correct, Acacia might be sitting on enough gold to pay up, but this is not likely. If the committee’s conclusions were true, Buzwagi and Bulyanhulu mines would be the second and third largest in the world. Tanzania would have produced not 55 tonnes of gold last year, but 154 tonnes. That would representapproximately 5% of world gold mine production. Sums of that scale affect shares, currency appreciation and even the world gold price, and that makes it unlikely that past production was kept secret as the committee suggests.
<h2>What next?</h2>
There are any number of reasons for the Tanzanian government’s decision to submit the tax demand – even if it doesn’t think that Acacia will ever pay. It could be a further bargaining ploy, a plea for attention, a failure of coordination or a strategic miscalculation.
But the most likely explanation is that this is part of a mounting campaign to drive the miners out of Tanzania altogether. Last week, Magufuli announced that if the mining companies continued to delay negotiations,
<blockquote>I will close all mines and give them to Tanzanians.</blockquote>
With every new development, this threat seems less and less an idle boast.

All bets off as Magufuli’s resource nationalism moves up a gear in Tanzania

Nigeria&#8217;s acting president will open a $1.5 billion fertiliser plant in the southeastern city of Port Harcourt on Thursday, highlighting efforts by Africa&#8217;s largest economy to boost its agriculture industry.
Nigeria has for decades been dependent on exports of oil to support its economy, but as global crude prices have dropped and production has been hit by militant attacks the government has sought to diversify, embracing sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.
The new factory has an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes of urea fertiliser and was built by Indorama Eleme Fertilizer and Chemicals Limited, the president&#8217;s office said in a statement on Wednesday giving details of the visit by Acting President Yemi Osinbajo. He is leading Nigeria while Muhammadu Buhari is in Britain on medical leave for an undisclosed ailment
&#8220;Besides making fertiliser available to farmers nationwide at affordable cost, the plant will also boost crop yield for farmers,&#8221; the statement said.
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Reporting by Felix Onuah; Writing by Paul Carsten; Editing by Susan Fenton
</div>

Nigeria’s new $1.5BN fertiliser plant boosts agriculture sector

Department store Stuttafords, the 159-year-old &#8220;Harrods of South Africa&#8221;, is closing down, victim of a global shift to online retail and a domestic economic slump that has put brands such as Ted Baker (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=TED.L">TED.L</a>) and Gap (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=GPS.N">GPS.N</a>) beyond its customers&#8217; reach.
Mirroring the fortunes of once-mighty department stores in Europe and the United States, the doyenne of the South African high street during apartheid and the two decades since applied for protection from creditors in October.
However, attempts to revive its fortunes proved futile and creditors voted in June to wind up the unlisted firm by Aug. 1, with closing-down sales at its nine stores in South Africa, two in Botswana and one in Namibia.
In its flagship store in Johannesburg&#8217;s Sandton financial district, piles of naked mannequins lay in heaps next to bare shelves as the last few bargain hunters picked through trays of heavily discounted perfumes, make-up and clothes.
&#8220;We don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s going to happen &#8211; if we will still have jobs,&#8221; said one employee, who did not want to be named for fear of hurting her chances of staying on. &#8220;We only heard that maybe this shop will be one that will not close.&#8221;
For South Africa, it is the end of a piece of retail history.
The first shop was opened in Cape Town in 1858 by Samson Rickard Stuttaford with the vision of creating a Harrods-like department store in what was then Britain&#8217;s Cape Colony.
Its main Cape Town store, opened in 1938, was designed by in-house Harrods architect Louis David Blanc and echoed the British store&#8217;s famous frontage in London&#8217;s exclusive Knightsbridge district.
Through various changes of ownership, it never lost its focus on the middle and upper-class South African market, despite the economy&#8217;s failure to recover fully from a deep recession in 2009 sparked by the global financial crisis.
Chief Executive Robert Amoils could not be reached for comment but has defended his approach to the tough conditions.
&#8220;I believe the path we set was correct,&#8221; he told business website Fin24. &#8220;We ran out of time. The market downturn was so swift, so severe.&#8221;
John Evans, a lawyer overseeing its closure, said he had received a last-minute approach that could salvage two Johannesburg outlets, in Sandton and Eastgate, which would save the jobs of 300 of the group&#8217;s 950 staff.
&#8220;There&#8217;s a chance we&#8217;ll save Sandton and Eastgate. If we do, we should be able to save 300 jobs,&#8221; he said.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-236748 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Stuttafords_01.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="246" />
<h3 data-reactid="58">&#8220;Fall from Grace&#8221;</h3>
Nearly all retailers in Africa&#8217;s most sophisticated economy have struggled as consumer sentiment has hit multi-year lows, a result of high unemployment and inflation gnawing at disposable income. The economy is now back in recession.
The slump is piling pressure on President Jacob Zuma, who faces increasing calls to resign due to a slew of corruption scandals and accusations of mishandling the economy.
Macy&#8217;s (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=M.N">M.N</a>) and Nordstrom JWN.M in the United States have also hit tough times, suggesting Stuttafords&#8217; woes are not unique to South Africa, Sasha Naryshkine of local asset manager Vestact said.
The main squeeze has come from cheaper retailers such as South Africa&#8217;s Woolworths (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=WHLJ.J">WHLJ.J</a>), Sweden&#8217;s H&amp;M (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=HMb.ST">HMb.ST</a>) and Spain&#8217;s Zara (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=ITX.MC">ITX.MC</a>).
&#8220;The fall from grace in all these department stores is that people can get the same stuff online and there is a rise of other quality brands at a cheaper price,&#8221; Naryshkine said. &#8220;In an economic downturn, people are going to shop down.&#8221;
Nor is Stuttafords alone.
Footwear and accessories chain Nine West, owned by U.S. buyout firm Sycamore Partners, and Spanish fashion chain Mango, whose local licences are held by House of Busby, have closed stand-alone outlets due to poor sales.
&#8220;The brands did not meet the required return on invested capital hurdles,&#8221; House of Busby Chief Executive Mark Sardi said.
Edcon&#8217;s [EDCNP.UL] Edgars, another clothing retailer ubiquitous in South African shopping malls, was taken over by creditors last year and had to restructure debt.
In May, no-frills retailer Mr Price (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=MRPJ.J">MRPJ.J</a>) posted its first annual drop in profits in 16 years, while rivals Woolworths and Truworths (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=TRUJ.J">TRUJ.J</a>) flagged lower or stalling earnings last week.
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Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Ed Cropley and Susan Thomas
</div>

Stuttafords – “South Africa’s Harrods” closes its doors after 159 years

Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Eelke Heemskerk, Frank Takes, Jan Fichtner | University of Amsterdam
&nbsp;
First came the <a href="https://panamapapers.icij.org/">Panama Papers</a>, then the <a href="https://www.icij.org/tags/bahamas-leaks">BahamasLeaks</a>. Journalists continue to shed light on and raise a public outcry over the offshore financial centres that corporations use to reduce their tax bill – something that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/de228b90-3632-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3">is still being challenged in court</a>.
A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06322-9">new study</a> has now uncovered all the world’s corporate tax havens and, for the first time, revealed the intermediary countries that companies use to funnel their money into these places.
Published on July 24 in the academic journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/srep/">Scientific Reports</a>, the paper Uncovering Offshore Financial Centers: Conduits and Sinks in the Global Corporate Ownership Network shows that offshore finance is not the exclusive business of exotic, far-flung places such as the Cayman Islands and Bermuda.
The Netherlands and the United Kingdom also play a crucial – although a heretofore obscure – role in the tax-avoidance game, acting as conduits for corporate profits as they make their way to tax havens.
<h2>What makes a tax shelter</h2>
Tax havens are a popular, legal and often secret instrument for multinational corporations to move capital across borders. By taking advantage of loopholes in various national legislations and placing operations in countries with low taxes, companies can reduce their tax rate from around 35% to 25% to 15% or lower.
Figure 1: The United States Effective Corporate Tax Rate (1947-2011)
<div id="attachment_236300" style="width: 764px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-236300" class="wp-image-236300 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Figure_01_Graph-1.png" alt="" width="754" height="385" />American companies use clever (and legal) tactics to offshore profits and reduce their tax burden. US Federal Reserve via Wikimedia</div>
&nbsp;
Silicon Valley companies have become expert at this tactic. Using a combination of subsidiaries in Ireland, the Netherlands and Bermuda to reduce its tax burden, Apple paid just 0.005% tax on its European profits in 2014, the European Comission reported.
If multinationals’ profits were accounted for where the economic activity takes place, they would pay a combined US$500 to US$650 billion more on taxes each year, according to estimates by the Tax Justice Network and the International Monetary Fund. Of this, around US$200 billion a year would go to developing countries, which is more than they receive annually in development aid (US$142.6 billion).
Findings like this have put tax havens on the radar of US and European regulators, but there’s no broadly accepted definition of what makes a country an offshore financial centre.
Lists published by the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/ctp/harmful/2090192.pdf">Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development</a> (OECD) and the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/050808.pdf">International Monetary Fund</a> use different criteria to define tax shelters, and their outcomes are highly politicised.
The Tax Justice Network’s <a href="http://www.financialsecrecyindex.com/">Financial Secrecy Index</a>, Oxfam’s <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/tax-battles-dangerous-global-race-bottom-corporate-tax">list of the worst corporate tax havens</a> and Jan Fichtner’s 2015 <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2928027">Offshore-Intensity Ratio</a> have proven to be more useful.
Fichtner (a co-author of this article) provides a rough yardstick for judging OFC jurisdictions by examining the proportion between foreign capital, such as FDI, and the size of the domestic economy.
What none of these measures can tell us, though, is the origin of the foreign investment reported by these tax havens. How does Apple’s money get from California to Bermuda anyway?
<h2>Big data and network analysis</h2>
By bringing together political economists and computer scientists in the <a href="http://corpnet.uva.nl/">CORPNET</a> research group at the University of Amsterdam, it became possible to study how corporations make use of particular countries and jurisdictions in their international ownership structures. The novel, data-driven network approach of our study shed light on how offshore finance flows across the globe.
We looked not at country-level statistics but at detailed company data. By asking which countries and jurisdictions play a role in corporate ownership chains that is <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp0787.pdf">incommensurate with the size of their domestic economies</a>, we were able to identify, for the first time, a complex global web of offshore financial centres.
We analysed the entire massive global network of ownership relations, with information of over 98 million firms and 71 million ownership relations. This granular firm-level network data helped us to distinguish two kinds of tax havens: sinks and conduits.
<h2>Introducing sinks and conduits</h2>
“Sink OFCs” attract and retain foreign capital. We identified 24 sink OFCs, including well-known tax havens such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/17/luxembourg-tax-haven-blacklist-brussels-european-commission">Luxembourg</a>, <a href="http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2095852/how-hong-kong-can-shed-its-reputation-tax-haven">Hong Kong</a>, the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/04/04/british-virgin-islands-portrait-of-a-tax-haven.html">British Virgin Islands</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/12/bermuda-is-worlds-worst-corporate-tax-haven-says-oxfam">Bermuda</a>, and the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2016.1243143">Cayman Islands</a>, but also Taiwan, a heretofore <a href="https://theconversation.com/www.taxjustice.net/2016/02/10/taiwan-the-un-noticed-asian-tax-haven">unnoticed tax haven</a>.
Using our method, we can now investigate which jurisdictions are used by corporations en route to sinks. These “conduit OFCs” are attractive intermediate destinations because their numerous tax treaties, low or zero withholding taxes, strong legal systems and good reputations for enabling the quiet transfer of capital without taxation.
Figure 2: Mapping equity flows
<div id="attachment_236325" style="width: 764px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-236325" class="wp-image-236325 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Figure_02.png" alt="" width="754" height="752" />The size of conduits (green) and sinks (red) reflects the investment that flows through the country. The colour to its position as a sink (blue = no sink, red = sink). The size of the arrows is proportional to the investment between two countries and the colour to its importance (blue = lower flow than expected, red = higher flow than expected). CORPNET</div>
We found that a handful of big countries – the Netherlands, the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Ireland – serve as the world’s conduit OFCs. Together, these five conduits channel 47% of corporate offshore investment from tax havens, according to the data we analysed.
The Netherlands leads the pack with 23%, followed by the UK (14%), Switzerland (6%), Singapore (2%) and Ireland (1%).
Each conduit jurisdiction is specialised both geographically and in industrial sectors. The Netherlands excels in holding companies, for example, while Luxembourg favours “administrative services”. Hong Kong’s geographic speciality lies in connecting to the British Virgin Islands and Taiwan.
<h2>New targets</h2>
Our findings debunk the myth of tax shelters as exotic far-flung islands that are difficult, if not impossible, to regulate. Many offshore financial centres are highly developed countries with strong regulatory environments.
That means that targeting conduit OFCs rather than sinks could prove more effective in stemming tax avoidance. This realisation may help European Union and the OECD officials, who <a href="http://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/">have increased pressure on cracking down on tax avoidance</a> since the 2008-2009 financial crisis (to modest effect), by helping regulators better tailor their policies.
British Finance Minister Philip Hammond has speculated that the UK could become a European tax haven if the EU fails to offer it a good Brexit deal. But, in practice, the City of London is already a major offshore financial centre.
Figure 3: Sink Offshore Financial Centres
<div id="attachment_236330" style="width: 764px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-236330" class="wp-image-236330 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Figure_03.png" alt="" width="754" height="389" />Jurisdictions in blue have been under British sovereignty in the past or are still UK dependencies. CORPNET, Author provided</div>
Of 24 sink OFCs, 18 have a current or past dependence to the UK, including major tax havens such as the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands and Jersey. New territories with low or no corporate taxes are continuously emerging as sink OFCs, but, as our study shows, there are just a handful of conduit OFCs.
Results and details are available on the dedicated website <a href="https://www.ofcmeter.org/">www.ofcmeter.org</a>

Tax Havens: Five countries that enable corporations to hide money

ArcelorMittal South Africa reported a deeper first-half loss on Thursday but forecast growth in steel demand in Africa in the second half.
Headline losses grew to 1.619 billion rand ($125.5 million)for the six months to June 30 from a loss of 458 million a year earlier.
The company cited higher costs for imported coking coal and iron ore, exchange rate volatility and continued weakening of the South African economy.
Shares in the company, majority-owned by top global producer ArcelorMittal, were down 2.6 percent in early trade.
&#8220;Projections are that Africa will experience growth in demand on the order of 2.3 percent,&#8221; ArcelorMittal said in its earnings statement.
African markets, specifically in the west and east sub-Saharan regions, have remained positive due to infrastructure investments in rail, roads and energy, it said.
Steel consumption in South Africa fell by 3.8 percent in the first half due to subdued economic growth and continued imports of large quantities of steel, especially from China, it said.
The steelmaker has long complained about cheap imports eating into its business.
South Africa plans to impose emergency &#8220;safeguard&#8221; tariffs on imports of certain flat hot-rolled steel products from July due to the damage done to domestic production.
The tariff is to stay in place for three years and fall from 12 percent in the first year to 10 percent in the second year and 8 percent in the third.
($1 = 12.8974 rand)
<div class="Attribution_attribution_o4ojT" data-reactid="49">
Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; editing by Ed Stoddard and Jason Neely
</div>

ArcelorMittal South Africa loss deepens

MTN expects to swing back into profit in the first half of its financial year after a 330 billion naira ($1.1 billion) fine paid in the previous reporting period weighed on margins, the company said on Thursday.
Africa&#8217;s biggest wireless network group expects headline earnings per share (HEPS) to be between 210 cents and 230 cents for the six months ended 30 June 2017 compared to a headline loss per share of 271 cents in prior comparable period.
HEPS is the main profit measure used in South Africa that strips out once off items.
&#8220;The negative performance in the prior comparable period was mainly as a result of non-recurring costs, including the Nigeria regulatory fine of 474 cents per share,&#8221; the company said.
MTN agreed to pay the fine, which was reduced from $5.2 billion, in June last year after a prolonged legal battle to end a dispute in Nigeria over missing a deadline to cut off unregistered SIM cards.
The fine claimed by Nigeria, MTN&#8217;s most lucrative but increasingly problematic market, wiped 10.5 billion rand ($814.67 million) from 2016 earnings.
($1 = 12.8886 rand)
<div class="Attribution_attribution_o4ojT" data-reactid="45">
Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; Editing by Ed Stoddard
</div>

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