<p>Ghana President John Mahama, facing a tough challenge in this week&#8217;s election, said on Monday he had done his best in the past four years and deserved a second term to consolidate economic and infrastructure gains.</p>
<p>&#8220;I humbly ask for your mandate on Wednesday &#8230; to complete the journey which we all started together,&#8221; Mahama told thousands of supporters at the end of the ruling party&#8217;s campaign ahead of Wednesday&#8217;s vote.</p>
<p>Mahama is seeking a second and final four-year term in what is expected to be a close race between him and main opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo. Voters will choose among seven presidential candidates and elect members of parliament for 275 constituencies.</p>
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<p>Ghana exports gold, oil and cocoa, but experienced a slump in global commodity prices and macroeconomic instability, forcing the government to adopt a three-year aid deal with the International Monetary Fund in April 2015.</p>
<p>Mahama said that despite the challenges, the West African country made modest gains in stabilizing the economy, resolving a prolonged power crisis and improving social and economic infrastructure.</p>
<p>&#8220;We have done much work, but more needs to be done and we can only advance faster if we press on and stay the course,&#8221; Mahama said.</p>
<p>Mahama, 58, a former vice president, was elected in 2012 after serving six months as president to complete the term of John Atta Mills, who died in office.</p>
<p>Akufo-Addo has said re-electing Mahama would threaten the nation&#8217;s future, accusing the president&#8217;s government of mismanaging the economy and unleashing hardship.</p>
<p>Mahama&#8217;s supporters, waving miniature party flags, filled the stands and inner perimeter of the 45,000-capacity Accra sports stadium, draped in a sea of black, red, white and green stripes.</p>
<p>Among them was a group of five women aged 72 to 78 years, who said they showed up to celebrate Mahama for consolidating peace and unity in Ghana.</p>
<p>&#8220;He is not only doing his best for Ghana but he is also an epitome of peace, which we sometimes take for granted,&#8221; one of them, Naa Teye, said.</p>
<p>Ghana has held five successful democratic elections since 1992 and Mahama said he was hopeful the election would pass off peacefully.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Why Ghana President Mahama is asking for a second term

<p> South African lender FirstRand said on Monday suspicions of money-laundering lay behind its decision to cut ties with a business family linked to allegations of influence-peddling in President Jacob Zuma&#8217;s government.</p>
<p>FirstRand, South Africa&#8217;s biggest bank by market value, is the first lender to publicly disclose reasons for severing links earlier this year with Oakbay Investments, a company controlled by the Gupta brothers.</p>
<p>The Gupta family, whose businesses range from media to mining, and Zuma have repeatedly denied wrongdoing. The Guptas&#8217; lawyer said on Monday suspicions of money-laundering were groundless.</p>
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<p>In an affidavit seen by Reuters, dated Nov. 29, FirstRand Chief Executive Johan Burger said his company had closed Oakbay bank accounts to comply with international regulations.</p>
<p>&#8220;These practices and standards require us to take steps to prevent FirstRand being used for money-laundering and other unlawful activities,&#8221; Burger says in the court papers.</p>
<p>The Gupta family lawyer, Gert van der Merwe, told Reuters it took the accusations of money-laundering seriously and that it would deal with them in its own court application, to be filed by the end of the year.</p>
<p>&#8220;We want the real reasons for closing the accounts, not sweeping statements,&#8221; van der Merwe said.</p>
<p>&#8220;They&#8217;ve not disclosed any real reasons to show my clients are politically exposed people.&#8221;</p>
<p>Between December 2015 and April this year, all four major banks, also including Standard Bank, Nedbank and Barclays Africa, terminated the accounts of companies controlled by the Gupta family without making their reasons public.</p>
<p>FirstRand&#8217;s court filing is in support of October&#8217;s application by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan asking a court to declare he could not interfere with the decisions by the banks.</p>
<p>Barclays and Nedbank said they would file legal applications similar to FirstRand&#8217;s some time this week.</p>
<p>Last week Zuma sent back to parliament an anti-money-laundering bill that would have increased scrutiny of the bank accounts of &#8220;prominent individuals&#8221;, including himself. He declined to sign it into law, saying it might not be constitutional.</p>
<p>A report by the Public Protector, released on Nov. 2, focused on allegations that businessmen Ajay, Atul and Rajesh Gupta had tried to influence the appointment of ministers. Zuma and the Gupta brothers have denied all the accusations.</p>
<p>The report called for a judicial inquiry to be set up by the president and for a judge to be appointed by the chief justice within 30 days of its release.</p>
<p>Zuma has described it as &#8220;unfair&#8221; and last week launched a court bid to have it set aside. On Monday the opposition Democratic Alliance asked the constitutional court to compel the leader to appoint a judicial inquiry as recommended by former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


South Africa's FirstRand closed Gupta accounts on money-laundering fears

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<p>Authorities in Ghana have busted a fake U.S. embassy in the capital Accra run by a criminal network that for a decade issued illegally obtained authentic visas, the U.S. State Department said.</p>
<p>Until it was shut down this summer, the sham embassy was housed in a run-down, pink two-storey building with a corrugated iron roof and flew a U.S. flag outside. Inside hung a portrait of President Barack Obama.</p>
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<p>&#8220;It was not operated by the United States government, but by figures from both Ghanaian and Turkish organized crime rings and a Ghanaian attorney practicing immigration and criminal law,&#8221; the State Department said in a statement released late on Friday.</p>
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<p>Turkish citizens, who spoke English and Dutch, posed as consular officers and staffed the operation. Investigations also uncovered a fake Dutch embassy, the State Department said.</p>
<p>Officials in the Netherlands were not immediately reachable for comment on Sunday.</p>
<p>The crime ring issued fraudulently obtained but legitimate U.S. visas and false identification documents, including birth certificates at a cost of $6,000 each, the statement said.</p>
<p>During raids that led to a number of arrests, authorities also seized authentic and counterfeit Indian, South African and Schengen Zone visas and 150 passports from 10 different countries along with a laptop and smart phones.</p>
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<div class="attribution">U.S. Department of State</div>
<div class="caption">The legitimate U.S. Embassy in Accra, Ghana.</div>
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<p>The statement did not say how the gang obtained the authentic visas. And the State Department did not say how many people were believed to have illegally entered the United States and other countries using visas issued by the crime ring, which used bribery to operate unhindered.</p>
<p>&#8220;The criminals running the operation were able to pay off corrupt officials to look the other way, as well as obtain legitimate blank documents to be doctored,&#8221; the statement said.</p>
<p>There was no immediate comment from Ghana&#8217;s Criminal Investigations Division.</p>
<p>Visas for Western countries are in high demand in Africa and embassies say the visa market is a big target for organized crime.</p>
<p>The real U.S. embassy in Ghana is a prominent and heavily fortified complex in Cantonments, one of the capital&#8217;s most expensive neighborhoods. Lines of people queue outside each day for visa appointments and other consular business.</p>
<p>The fake embassy was open three mornings a week and did not accept walk-in appointments. Instead, the criminals advertised on billboards in Ghana, Togo and Ivory Coast and brought clients from across West Africa to Accra where they rented them hotel rooms in nearby hotels.</p>
<p>U.S. authorities conducting a broader security operation were tipped off about it and assembled a team including the Ghana Detectives Bureau and police as well as other international partners to shut down the ring.﻿</p>
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Ghana's fake US embassy that had a ten year shelf life

<p>Invicta&#8217;s CEO Charles Walters who has been in the hot seat for just over a year has resigned with effect from 31 January 2017. He will be replaced by former CEO Arnold Goldstone who held that position from April 2000 to April 2015. </p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MmLiBL56WnU" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></p>


Invicta's CEO resigns, will be replaced by former CEO

<p>An initiative by youth organisations in Cameroon to turn human waste into biogas is reducing pollution and providing cheap, renewable energy to the growing populations of the university towns of Buea and Bamenda.</p>
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<p>Bioenergy-Cameroon, a non-governmental organisation run by young people, installs equipment that converts waste from septic tanks and pit latrines into biogas, which can be used for cooking or heating and can power small generators to run household electrical appliances.</p>
<p>The organisation says its efforts are spurring the use of clean energy in homes and secondary schools where grid electrical power is non-existent or unreliable and alternative sources of energy such as gas cylinders are expensive.</p>
<p>“Many have come to discover the cheap energy in their backyard and are not only embracing the technology but are also learning the transformation process,” said Cedrick Kemajou, Bioenergy’s coordinator.</p>
<p>As it expands, the project is bringing local councils and other youth groups on board.</p>
<p>“With exponential growth of the university town of Buea, we had problems handling human waste. That is why we are glad that this waste can be used to produce energy that will help the residents not only fill the energy gap but also tackle human waste and sewage (management) problems,” said Patrick Ekema, mayor of Buea.</p>
<p>Ekema said that with easier access to energy, the council can better tackle other development problems such as providing clean water.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>GIRLS GO GREEN</p>
<p>Biogas is produced by connecting a septic tank to a bio-digester which breaks down the organic matter, producing a natural gas known as bio-methane.</p>
<p>Students in schools where the infrastructure is installed are trained in the biogas transformation process and are shown how to build, install and maintain the biodigester and generators at the school.</p>
<p>“We give practical training to girls in colleges on how energy is generated from the sun, water and human waste,” said Monique Ntumngia, coordinator of Green Girls, a Cameroonian NGO that trains young women in technology.</p>
<p>“We target female students especially, to break barriers and get them into innovative technology,” Ntumngia explained. Green Girls has trained 600 girls in schools in towns such as Bafut, Nkwen and Mankon, she said.</p>
<p>An additional 3,000 households in Buea and Bamenda have received domestic biodigesters through the project, and demand is growing fast, project organisers say.</p>
<p>Many students in Buea and Bamenda say they have long suffered from persistent blackouts on the traditional grid power, where energy largely comes from hydropower.</p>
<p>“We could not study well during such blackouts that sometimes last for over a week. We have been suffering even though we are blessed with a clean energy source in our backyard,” said Magdalene Lum, a student at the University of Buea.</p>
<p>“The new energy from our human waste will supply us electricity constantly and cheaper,” Lum said.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>COSTS AND BENEFITS</p>
<p>According to data from the World Bank, only 53 percent of Cameroon’s population of 23 million have access to electricity.</p>
<p>Bottled cooking gas can be difficult to afford, especially for Cameroon’s poorest. A 12kg cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas costs 6,000 Central African francs (FCFA), or nearly $10, according to the Ministry of Trade.</p>
<p>Families benefiting from the cheap biogas say they are using the money they save for other essential items such as schooling and medical care.</p>
<p>“Biogas has spared me the trouble of paying monthly electricity bills and buying bottled gas that is regularly out of stock. This has saved me some money to support my children’s education,” said Mercy Kum, a trader in Buea.</p>
<p>College officials are pleased that biogas insulates their budgets from what can be volatile electricity prices. Rates fluctuate according to the availability of hydropower, which is increasingly vulnerable as climate change brings more droughts and floods.</p>
<p>“The biogas we generate provides a constant supply of the energy the school needs, unlike the hydroelectricity that regularly goes on and off,” said Peter Nke, principal of Baptist High School Buea.</p>
<p>Having a biodigester installed and receiving training to use and maintain it costs 500,000-700,000 FCFA ($800-$1,100), a sum paid by the institution or households that request the service. A group of homes can use a common biodigester to share the expense.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>REDUCING DEFORESTATION</p>
<p>Turning waste into biogas may not be new in Cameroon, but the youth organisations say producing it from human waste in multiple households and institutions, and training students – especially girls – on the technology is an innovation.</p>
<p>“Most boarding schools in the Northwest and Southwest regions now use biogas for cooking and lighting produced from human waste, with trained students to manage the process,” said Ntumngia.</p>
<p>Samuel Nguiffo, executive secretary of the Center for Environment and Development (CED), an NGO in Cameroon, explained that most communities in urban areas traditionally use charcoal or kerosene stoves for cooking.</p>
<p>Charcoal production creates a huge demand for wood, which has frequently led the government to impose bans on charcoal burning and forest destruction.</p>
<p>The use of biogas energy should help preserve the country’s forests, Nguiffo said.</p>
<p>CED estimates that the biogas project may be reducing greenhouse gases by as much as 60 percent in the vicinity of the projects, as well as curbing pollution from open air defecation and pit latrines.</p>
<p>“Cameroon will derive enormous economic, health and especially environmental benefits if renewable energy efforts are spread throughout the country,” he said.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>(Reporting by Elias Ntungwe Ngalame; editing by James Baer and Laurie Goering :; Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, climate change, women&#8217;s rights, trafficking and property rights. Visit <a href="http://news.trust.org/climate">news.trust.org/climate</a>)﻿</p>


How Cameroonian girls turn human waste to clean power to biogas

<p> Kenya Airways said on Monday it was experiencing some disruptions to its flight schedules after an undisclosed number of technicians failed to show up for work, the latest in a series of labour-related hiccups to face the airline.</p>
<p>&#8220;We would like to advise our guests that we are experiencing some delays due to a number of our technicians not showing up for work &#8230; We are working to reduce these disruptions,&#8221; Kenya Airways said in a statement.  </p>
<p>&#8220;Our technical team is a vital part of our business and we are working together to resolve any outstanding issues.&#8221;</p>
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<p>It said on its Twitter account that nine flights out of Nairobi had been affected.</p>
<p>Kenya Airways did not say how many technicians had stayed away from work, or what had prompted them to stay away from work.</p>
<p>On Oct. 16, the loss-making airline was forced to cancel several flights after some crew members also failed to show up for work.</p>
<p>On Nov. 3, the Kenya Airline Pilots Association (KALPA) pilots union withdrew a strike notice it had issued in October, saying there had been progress on its demands, which included removing the top management.</p>
<p>The airline said in late November its chief executive officer Mbuvi Ngunze would leave in the first quarter of 2017, while in October it appointed Michael Joseph &#8211; the former chief executive of telecoms firm Safaricom &#8211; as its chairman.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>(Reporting by George Obulutsa. Editing by Jane Merriman)﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Flights delayed as Kenya Airways technicians skip work

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<div class="attribution"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="/media/19274245/world_changes.jpg" width="530" height="298" alt="World Changes"/>﻿</div>
<div class="attribution">Michael Kappeler | Reuters</div>
<div class="caption"><em>German Chancellor Angela Merkel sits with U.S. President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and French President Francois Hollande before their meeting in Schloss Herrenhausen in Hanover, Germany April 25, 2016</em></div>
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<p>Here&#8217;s a good example of how much global politics has changed in 2016. Back in April, leaders of the G-5 group of leading industrial nations sat down for a round-table discussion at a summit in Hannover, Germany.</p>
<p>A bit more than six months after, only one of the world leaders looks set to stay in politics &#8211; for now.</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/david-cameron/" target="_blank">David Cameron</a> resigned last June after losing a referendum where Britain chose to leave the European Union.</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/barack-obama/" target="_blank">Barack Obama</a> is leaving the White House in January after a shock vote last month where the Republican nominee Donald Trump was elected the next president.</p>
<p>Chancellor<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/angela-merkel/" target="_blank">Angela Merkel</a> is facing a key election early next year. Apart from new opponents on the left, Merkel has to deal with a growing support for anti-euro and anti-European populism parties and criticism over her refugee policy.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/francois-hollande/" target="_blank">Francois Hollande</a> announced last week that he would not seek a second term as French president given his low popularity among the electorate.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/04/italian-exit-polls-show-prime-minister-matteo-renzi-losing-constitutional-reform-referendum-reuters.html" target="_blank">Matteo Renzi</a> is handing in his resignation to the Italian president on Monday after losing a key constitutional referendum.</p>
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<p> </p>


And then there was one: This photo shows how much the world has changed this year

<p>A South African police watchdog has recommended that suspended national commissioner Riah Phiyega be deemed unfit to hold office and dismissed, the City Press weekly newspaper reported on Sunday.</p>
<p>Phiyega was the country&#8217;s top-ranking police official when police killed 34 striking workers near Lonmin&#8217;s Marikana mine in 2012.</p>
<p>She was suspended by South African President Jacob Zuma last year pending an inquiry into allegations of misconduct.</p>
<p>Reuters was not able to contact Phiyega for immediate comment but her lawyer, Sandile July, told the eNCA channel: &#8220;We have no idea what is in the report&#8221;, declining to make further comment.</p>
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<p>The police shootings were South Africa&#8217;s worst since the end of apartheid and have become known as the &#8220;Marikana massacre&#8221;.</p>
<p>The Democratic Alliance, the official opposition party, said in a statement that the report recommending Phiyega&#8217;s dismissal should be produced in parliament, adding that reports indicated that it has been ready since November 13.</p>
<p>Zuma appointed Phiyega in June 2012, after sacking her predecessor Bheki Cele over the irregular signing of a lease for a new police headquarters worth nearly $100 million.</p>
<p>Cele&#8217;s predecessor, Jackie Selebi, also did not complete his term after he was convicted of corruption and sentenced to 15 years in prison. He died last year while on medical parole.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


S.Africa watchdog says police commissioner should be dismissed

<p>Gambia&#8217;s defeated President Yahya Jammeh remains in the country and will hand over power to president-elect Adama Barrow in January following a transition period, the communications minister said on Sunday.</p>
<p>Jammeh, who has ruled the West African nation for 22 years, has not been seen in public since he shocked observers by accepting his surprise loss in a Dec. 1 election on Friday, leading to rumours he had fled Gambia.</p>
<p>His defeat was met with wild celebrations this weekend but his absence prompted speculation that a man who scrapped constitutional limits on the length of his rule and has a firm grip on the military, might not keep his word.</p>
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<p>&#8220;We are working on the transition now. They (Barrow&#8217;s coalition) will come and we will show them the ropes,&#8221; Information Minister Sheriff Bojang said in an interview.</p>
<p>&#8220;It will be the latter part of January,&#8221; Bojang said of the hand-over.</p>
<p>The outgoing president is currently in his residency at State House and will meet Barrow next week, he added. Gambian law calls for a 60-day transition period.</p>
<p>In a sign of growing confidence in the new political era, people tore down giant billboards wishing Jammeh &#8220;Happy 51st Birthday Mr. President&#8221; that had lined streets in Banjul.</p>
<p>Jammeh&#8217;s birthday was in May.</p>
<p>&#8220;I came here to witness this,&#8221; said Gibril Jaw, a tourist guide, standing in front of the torn posters. &#8220;Now there will be no more stress, no more scares, no more problems.&#8221;</p>
<p>The former British colony attracts thousands of British tourists to its beaches every year. But it has become increasingly estranged from the West in recent years amid tensions over allegations that Jammeh&#8217;s security forces have imprisoned and tortured opponents.</p>
<p>It withdrew from the Commonwealth in 2013 and in October Bojang announced the withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, calling it the &#8220;International Caucasian Court&#8221;.</p>
<p>But Barrow&#8217;s election has raised hopes of reforms, including the release of dozens of political prisoners, and closer relations with the West.</p>
<p>A Commonwealth spokesman said representatives from Barrow&#8217;s team had spoken with them and had &#8220;warm and friendly&#8221; discussions.</p>
<p>&#8220;Like every close knit family, our Commonwealth doors remain open and we look forward to continuing the conversation,&#8221; he said.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Gambia's Jammeh to hand over power by end January

<p>Business activity in Egypt shrank in November, with the deterioration picking up pace for the fourth consecutive month, as weakness in the pound currency raised costs and hit output, a survey showed on Monday.</p>
<p>The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) for Egypt&#8217;s non-oil private sector dropped to a 40-month low of 41.8 in November, edging down from 42 in October and far below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Egypt&#8217;s central bank abandoned its peg of 8.8 pounds to the U.S. dollar on Nov. 3, in a move aimed at attracting capital inflows and ending a black market for dollars that had all but crippled the banking system.</p>
<p>The move was largely welcomed by businesses, which had struggled to obtain dollars amid strict capital controls, and helped Egypt clinch a $12 billion loan from the IMF. But the currency has since depreciated to 17.8 against the dollar.</p>
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<p>&#8220;The ongoing downtrend evident in November’s survey highlights that there will be no quick fixes to Egypt’s economic difficulties, even following the EGP devaluation earlier in the month,&#8221; said Jean-Paul Pigat, senior economist at Emirates NBD.</p>
<p>&#8220;In this environment, it is crucial that authorities remain committed to their IMF-supported reform program in order to anchor investor confidence.&#8221;</p>
<p>Following the float, Egypt received the first $﻿2.75 billion tranche of its three-year loan from the International Monetary Fund, to help plug its financing gap and stabilise the currency.</p>
<p>The PMI showed purchasing prices continued to rise in November to their highest levels since data collection started, as the currency depreciated against the dollar and the government raised fuel prices.</p>
<p>Output fell substantially in November to 36.8. The pace was marginally slower than October&#8217;s decline but remained one of the most marked since data collection began in April 2011, with companies citing poor economic conditions, high prices and shortages of some raw materials.</p>
<p>The index showed new orders dropping to 36.3 &#8211; the fastest fall in 39 months &#8211; largely due to soaring inflation linked to the weakness of the Egyptian pound against the dollar. As companies sought to curb rising costs, rate of employment fell for the 18th consecutive month in November to 45.1 compared with 46.2 in October, data from the survey showed.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Egypt's non-oil business activity falls to 40-month low

<p>Activity in South Africa&#8217;s private sector inched up to a 19-month high in November, as new orders and output rose, a survey showed on Monday.</p>
<p>The Standard Bank Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, rose to 50.8 from 50.5 in October, remaining above the 50 mark dividing expansion from contraction.</p>
<p>The latest PMI reading was the best since April 2015.</p>
<p>&#8220;November data signalled a continuation of the economic upturn in South Africa that started in September,&#8221; Markit said.</p>
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<p>&#8220;With new business rising and backlogs of work increasing for the first time in two years, companies raised their employment and output levels again during the latest survey period.&#8221;</p>
<p>South African firms have struggled to stay viable as the economy struggles, with the Treasury forecasting growth of 0.5 percent this year.</p>
<p>The economy has also struggled to create new jobs, leaving South Africa saddled with a chronically high unemployment rate of 27.1 percent of the labour force.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


South Africa's private sector activity at 19-month high

<p>The business community welcomes the decision by Standard &amp; Poor’s to retain South Africa’s sovereign credit rating at its current level. This means South Africa’s long-term foreign currency debt is rated as investment grade by all three major rating agencies.</p>
<p>As we have stated before, this is a vindication of the efforts by government, labour and business over the past year to negotiate and undertake structural reforms to drive faster, more sustainable and more inclusive economic growth for the benefit of all South Africans.</p>
<p>All of the rating actions and opinions published recently are testament to the fact that the responsible management of the country’s budget and diligent commitment to fiscal consolidation will benefit South Africa’s growth significantly in the long term.</p>
<p>These announcements have affirmed investors’ conviction in the South African economy, but we see it as a beginning rather than an end of a process. We recognise that a lot of work is still necessary to reach higher levels of growth and we remain firmly committed to the structural reform programme, including initiatives undertaken by the CEO Initiative.</p>
<p>Working together in an unprecedented spirit of cooperation, government, labour and business have made a great deal of positive progress in a number of key areas.  We can be proud of the success achieved on a number of fronts. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li>An initiative to reduce youth unemployment, with the aim of providing employment to 1 million unemployed people (aged 18-29) over a period of three years. This is due to start by mid-2017.</li>
<li>A R1.5bn fund to invest in small- and medium enterprises, with the aim of stimulating growth and encouraging much needed job-creation in the SME sector. Disbursements are due to start in the first half of 2017.</li>
<li>Positive progress with regard to labour market reforms, with discussions on a national minimum wage and management of workplace conflict and strikes at an advanced stage.</li>
<li>The development of an Agricultural Growth Fund that would bring together the agricultural sector, the commercial banking sector, the Land Bank and Government in an endeavour to support both existing and new enterprises in the sector, and that would support farmers to continue producing through the current difficult drought conditions.</li>
<li>In the manufacturing sector, an initiative to revitalise the Vaal Triangle. The intention of the intervention is for industry in the area to work with Government to revitalise the area’s economy, including by reviving existing industry and seeking new opportunities for the area.</li>
<li>A partnership between business and Government in the tourism sector.  This partnership seeks to find ways that industry resources and capacity can be mobilised to support Government in critical areas related to tourism information, tourism safety and security and tourism marketing.   </li>
</ul>
<p>The rating agencies have recognised the measures already implemented to reduce inefficiencies in the economy, and we will continue working on additional structural reforms to unlock the country’s full growth potential.</p>
<p>All the agencies recognised the importance of strong, independent institutions – including the South African Reserve Bank, the courts and the Public Protector – in a robust democracy such as South Africa’s. ﻿</p>
<p><strong>Peter Attard Montalto, economist, Nomura ﻿comment</strong></p>
<p>As expected, one notch lower on the LC to BBB and the FC affirmed at BBB- with a negative outlook.</p>
<p>This is a partial victory for National Treasury push continually and hard on the rating agencies through every means available to them to avoid a downgrade to junk &#8211; dangling reforms in front of them, creating a positive mood music with business and labour.</p>
<p>Ultimately the saving graces for S&amp;P were the stabilisation in the strike situation and of energy supply together with a firm short run commitment on the fiscal front. This all led to S&amp;P giving benefit of the doubt to SA though their write up they are less explicit about this than say Moody&#8217;s was last week.</p>
<p>However this can&#8217;t continue forever and the downgrade of the local currency rating is a crystallised view of increasing risk in the eyes of S&amp;P from politics, poor growth outlook, &#8216;piecemeal&#8217; implementation of reforms. S&amp;P also noted the long run fiscal and debt outlook is deteriorating faster than they had previous presumed. They remain very worried about the risks of increasing political noise and contestation in 2017 &#8211; saying specifically there was a risk the alters the direction of policy (which might be a coded reference too to a reshuffle). Contingent liabilities are still described as &#8216;limited&#8217; but moving in a worrying direction of size and likelyhood of usage.</p>
<p>Overall the key parts of the negative outlook revolve around such low growth being a drag on the public balance sheet. As such they highlight reasons to downgrade as growth surprising to the downside, risks to institutions materialising, greater increase in contingent liabilities and net debt than expected and they (again) specifically highlight a further narrowing of the gap between FC and LC ratings is possible if they see a further reduction in fiscal flexibility.</p>
<p>A downgrade to the FC was possible today based on slippage to fiscal and growth metrics. It didn&#8217;t happen as benefit of the doubt was given and so they wait, basically, for more slippage before downgrading. That may well come after the budget but again it will always be marginal &#8211; never a huge shock (ok barring PGxit). As such we think ratings risks remains high in 2017 for S&amp;P and Moody&#8217;s if net debt continues to creep higher and with what we think will be further downgrades to growth expectations and flattening of the growth recovery outlook.</p>
<p>Specifically timing a downgrade will be difficult. Ultimately SA is not a shock wham bham crisis country that jumps to junk. It is a slow grind of under performance &#8211; today seen in the one notch downgrade to the LC rating &#8211; but over time can also lead to a FC rating downgrade.</p>
<p>Whilst broadly expected somewhat of a relief rally may be possible in markets after this.﻿</p>


CEOs, analysts respond to S&P S.A rating

<p>Overview</p>
<p>South Africa continues to depend on resident and nonresident purchases of rand denominated local currency debt to finance its fiscal and external deficits. Its financing needs have risen beyond our previous expectations, with general government debt set to increase by an average of 4.9% of GDP over 2016-2018, to reach gross debt of 54% of GDP in 2019. The proportion of rand in global foreign exchange turnover has also declined to just below 1% on average over the past three years.</p>
<p>We also believe political events have distracted from growth-enhancing reforms, while low GDP growth continues to affect South Africa’s economic and fiscal performance and overall debt stock.</p>
<p>We are therefore lowering our long-term local currency rating on South Africa to &#8216;BBB&#8217;. We are affirming all other ratings.</p>
<p>The negative outlook reflects the potentially adverse consequences of persistently low GDP growth for the public balance sheet.</p>
<p><strong>Rating Action</strong></p>
<p>On Dec. 2, 2016, S&amp;P Global Ratings lowered the long-term local currency rating on the Republic of South Africa to &#8216;BBB&#8217; from &#8216;BBB+&#8217; and affirmed the &#8216;A-2&#8217; short-term local currency ratings. We affirmed the long-and short-term foreign currency ratings at &#8216;BBB-/A-3&#8217;. The outlook on the long-term ratings remains negative.</p>
<p>At the same time, we affirmed the &#8216;zaAAA/zaA-1&#8217; South Africa national scale ratings.</p>
<p><strong>Rationale</strong></p>
<p>We have lowered the long-term local currency ratings on South Africa because its fiscal financing needs are increasing beyond our previous base-case expectations, while the proportion of rand turnover in the global foreign exchange market has declined over the last three years.</p>
<p>South Africa continues to depend on resident and non-resident purchases of rand denominated local currency debt to finance its fiscal and external deficits. Its financing needs have increased beyond our previous base case, with general government debt set to increase by an average of 4.9% of GDP over 2016-2018, compared to our previous estimate of 4.1% for the same period.</p>
<p>The proportion of rand in global foreign exchange turnover has also declined to just below 1% on average over the past three years. More broadly, we believe political events have distracted from growth-enhancing reforms and persistently low GDP growth continues to dampen per capital wealth levels and the country&#8217;s fiscal performance.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the ratings on South Africa reflect our view of the country&#8217;s large and active local currency fixed-income market, as well as the authorities&#8217; commitment to gradual fiscal consolidation. We also note that South Africa&#8217;s institutions, such as the judiciary, remain strong while the South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) maintains an independent monetary policy.</p>
<p>South Africa’s pace of economic growth remains a ratings weakness. It continues to be negative on a per capita GDP basis. While the government has identified important reforms and supply bottlenecks in South Africa’s highly concentrated economy, delivery has been piecemeal, in our opinion.</p>
<p>The country’s longstanding skills shortage and adverse terms of trade also explain poor growth outcomes, as does the corporate sector’s current preference to delay private investment, despite high margins and large cash positions.</p>
<p>We have marginally revised down our real GDP growth assumptions for South Africa to 0.5% for 2016 and 1.4% for 2017 (last June we forecast 0.6% for 2016 and 1.5% for 2017). Our revised projections are contingent on global growth, and, in particular, South Africa’s terms of trade. The economy remains directly and indirectly linked to demand for commodities, especially from China. We estimate that real GDP per capita will stand at US$5,300 in 2017.</p>
<p>While we believe the electricity sector has improved&#8211;with no load shedding since winter 2015 reflecting new capacity and lower demand&#8211;delivery on labor and mining sector reforms and other planned growth-enhancing measures continues to be slow. We think the government will soon enact the Mining and Petroleum Resources and Development Amendment Bill (MPRDA), which parliament recently passed into law. However, the mining charter is still under discussion and may drag over the next year.</p>
<p>The government has set up a commission into minimum wages, which has provided a starting point for negotiations with business and labor unions. Other implemented labor measures have given more power to labor tribunals to resolve disputes. Other matters, such as secret balloting, have been cascaded to labor unions to amend their individual constitutions. Nevertheless, prolonged and damaging strikes are likely to be curtailed over the next two to three years because the gold and platinum sectors signed multiyear wage agreements, which are likely to keep strikes to a minimum.</p>
<p>South Africa has a strong democracy with independent media and reporting. We also believe it will maintain institutional strength, particularly regarding the judiciary, which provides checks and balances and accountability where the executive and legislature has appeared less willing to do so.</p>
<p>That said, political tensions are still high. The former finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, was removed from office on Dec. 9, 2015; the Constitutional Court ruled against President Jacob Zuma on March 31, 2016; and the ANC lost some of the key cities (Johannesburg, and Tshwane [Pretoria]) in the Aug. 3 municipal elections.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the National Prosecuting Authority pursued fraud charges against the current finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, and other former SARS employees in October 2016, before dropping them in the same month, and a North Gauteng High Court ruling led to the publication of the “State of Capture” report, which sheds light on alleged corruption between private individuals and public office bearers.</p>
<p>We believe that against this backdrop, tensions and contestations are increasing in the run up to the ANC’s December 2017 elective conference. We think that ongoing continued tensions and the potential for event risk could weigh on investor confidence and exchange rates, and potentially affect government policy direction.</p>
<p>South Africa’s gross external financing needs are large, averaging over 100% of current account receipts (CARs) plus useable reserves. However, they are declining because the current account deficit is narrowing. The trade deficit is declining on the lower price of oil (which constitutes about one-fifth of South Africa&#8217;s imports); weak domestic demand; and a notable increase in exports from the mining and manufacturing sectors and a slower pace of increase in imports.</p>
<p>We believe sustained real exports growth is likely to be slow over 2016-2019 on persistent supply side constraints to production. Import growth will be compressed, amid currency weakness and the subdued domestic economy. Therefore, we estimate current account deficits will average below 4% of GDP (or 11% of CARs) over 2016-2019. However, South Africa funds part of its current account deficits with portfolio and other investment flows, which can be volatile.</p>
<p>Such volatilities could result from global changes in risk appetite; foreign investors reappraising prospective returns in the event of growth or policy slippage in South Africa; or rising interest rates in developed markets. We also observe that the proportion of rand in global foreign exchange transactions has fallen below 1% over the past few years. A few anticipated large FDI transactions should help reduce the share of debt financing as a percentage of South Africa’s net external deficit over the next few years.</p>
<p>Since 2015, South Africa’s net external asset position has been benefiting from a weaker currency (valuation effects) given that some external liabilities to nonresidents are denominated in local currency. We expect external debt net of liquid assets will average below 50% of CARs over 2016-2019, and the banking sector will remain in a net asset position.</p>
<p>Despite the weak economic environment constraining tax revenue collections, we believe the government remains committed to a fiscal consolidation path over the medium term through expenditure and revenue adjustments. On the expenditure side, the nominal expenditure ceiling provides an anchor and limit to overall government spending. While tight, it can accommodate unforeseen expenditure pressures within the existing framework. On the revenue side, treasury tax collection targets have often performed better than suggested by nominal GDP growth, pointing to tax buoyancy that is somewhat resilient to weaker economic growth trends.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the treasury&#8217;s annual change in general government debt in the past has tended to be higher than the reported deficit by at least 1% of GDP in the past five years.</p>
<p>Therefore, we project the annual change in general government debt will average at 4.9% of GDP over 2016-2018. The government has delayed for two decades plans to finance and build nuclear power plants, which could have negatively impacted the fiscal metrics.</p>
<p>General government debt, net of liquid assets, increased to around 45% of GDP in 2015 from about 30% in 2010, and we expect it will stabilize at around 49% of GDP only in 2018-2019. Although less than one-tenth of the government&#8217;s debt stock is denominated in foreign currency, nonresidents hold about 35% of the government&#8217;s rand-denominated debt, which could make financing costs vulnerable to foreign investor sentiment, exchange rate fluctuations, and rises in developed market interest rates. We project interest expense will remain at about 11% of government revenues this year.</p>
<p>We currently view South Africa&#8217;s contingent liabilities as limited. Nevertheless, in our view, the government faces risks from non-financial public enterprises with weak balance sheets, which may require more government support than we currently assume.</p>
<p>ESKOM (BB/Negative/&#8211;) benefits from a government guarantee framework of South African rand (ZAR) 350 billion (US$25 billion)&#8211;about 9% of 2016 GDP. ESKOM has used approximately ZAR190 billion of this guarantee amount to date.</p>
<p>Over the last year, the government has given ESKOM support in the form of a ZAR23 billion equity injection, and converting a ZAR60 billion loan to equity to boost the firm&#8217;s capital.</p>
<p>Other state-owned entities that we think could pose a risk to the fiscal outlook include national road agency Sanral (not rated), which is reported to have revenue collection challenges with its Gauteng tolling system, and South African Airways (not rated), which may be unable to obtain financing without additional government support.</p>
<p>As part of governance reforms, a new board was established to help turn the airline around. However, broader reforms to state owned enterprises are still under discussion and we do not expect implementation in the near term.</p>
<p>South Africa continues to pursue a floating exchange rate regime. The SARB (the central bank) does not have exchange rate targets and does not defend any particular exchange rate level. We assess the SARB as being operationally independent and its policies as credible. It uses an inflation-targeting framework for its monetary policy. The bank also uses open market operations to manage liquidity, including sterilizing its purchases of foreign exchange inflows. The repurchase (repo) rate is the bank&#8217;s most important monetary policy instrument.</p>
<p>Despite lower oil prices, a weaker exchange rate and higher electricity prices have increased inflationary pressures. The central bank expects inflation to remain higher than its 3%-6% target range in 2016 and early 2017 while these transitory shocks dissipate. The SARB has tightened by 75 basis points (bps) of cumulative hikes in 2016. Domestic capital markets are well developed, in our view, with depository corporation claims on residents&#8217; nongovernment sector accounting for about 80% of GDP. Local currency debt market capitalization (dominated by government bonds) accounts for 60% of GDP.</p>
<p>The South African banking sector’s performance has remained reasonably strong. Key financial metrics improved across the board domestically, returns on equity improved to 17.1% in August 2016 from 16.5% one year earlier, and over the same period capital adequacy improved to 12.2% from 11.0%. This can be partly attributed to the positive endowment effect from higher interest rates but also improving cost controls and lower risk costs.</p>
<p>South Africa remains a middle-income country with a diversified economy and wide income disparities. The ratings are supported by our assumption that South Africa will experience continued broad political institutional stability and macroeconomic policy continuity. We also take into account our view that South Africa will maintain fairly strong and transparent political institutions and deep financial markets.</p>
<p>The ratings are constrained by the need for further reforms, low GDP growth, volatile sources of financing, structural current account deficits, and sizable general government debt.</p>
<p><strong>Outlook</strong></p>
<p>The negative outlook reflects the potential adverse consequences of persistently low GDP growth on the public balance sheet, in the next one to two years.</p>
<p>We could lower the ratings if GDP growth or the fiscal trajectory does not improve in line with our current expectations, for example if South Africa enters a recession in 2017 or wealth levels continue to decline in U.S. dollar terms. We could also lower the ratings if we believed that institutions had become weaker due to political interference affecting the government&#8217;s policy framework.</p>
<p>Downward rating pressure would also mount if net general government debt and contingent liabilities related to financially weak government-related entities exceeded our current expectations. A reduction in fiscal flexibility may also lead us to further narrow the gap between the local and foreign currency ratings.</p>
<p>We could revise our outlook to stable if we observed policy implementation leading to improving business confidence and increasing private sector investment, and ultimately contributing to higher GDP growth and improving fiscal dynamics.﻿</p>


S.Africa's Long-Term Local Currency Rating Lowered, outlook still negative

<p>Gambian leader Yahyah Jammeh, who vowed to rule the tiny West African nation for &#8220;a billion years&#8221;, was handed a shock election defeat on Friday 22 years after seizing power in a coup.</p>
<p>The electoral commission head declared Adama Barrow president-elect on state television, with 45.5 percent of the vote against Jammeh&#8217;s 36.7 percent.</p>
<p>&#8220;Having received 263, 515 votes out of the total votes cast in the election, I hereby declare Adama Barrow newly elected to serve as president of the republic of the Gambia,&#8221; Alieu Momarr Njai said. He earlier told reporters in Banjul that Jammeh would concede, although he has yet to make a public statement.</p>
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<p>Barrow also told Reuters by telephone on Friday he was expecting a phone call from Jammeh conceding defeat.</p>
<p>Defeat and a concession from Jammeh would be momentous.</p>
<p>Earlier this week he said that his &#8220;presidency and power are in the hands of Allah and only Allah can take it from me&#8221;, and on one occasion even said he would remain in office for &#8220;a billion years&#8221;.</p>
<p>Voting against Jammeh was a rare show of defiance against a leader human rights groups say routinely crushes dissent by imprisoning and torturing opponents.</p>
<p>Gambians voted on Thursday amid a total blackout of the internet and all international calls, and with land borders sealed, in a poll posing the first serious challenge to Jammeh since he seized power in a coup in 1994.</p>
<p>He previously said he had invented a herbal cure for AIDS that only works on a Thursdays.</p>
<p>He has also arrested hundreds of people on suspicion of being witches or wizards and threatened to slit the throats of and decapitate homosexuals.</p>
<p>Jammeh&#8217;s supporters deny abuses and he has often criticised Western powers for meddling in African affairs.</p>
<p>Barrow, who has for the first time united and galvanised Gambia&#8217;s opposition, has promised to revive the economy, whose sluggishness pushes thousands of Gambians to flee to Europe in search of a better life.</p>
<p>He has also promised to end human rights abuses and to step down after three years as a boost to democracy.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Gambia's Jammeh in shock election loss after 22-year rule

<p>Angola&#8217;s state-owned oil firm Sonangol will not pay the government any dividends this year, its chief executive said, as crude revenues plunge in Africa&#8217;s second-largest producer.</p>
<p>Sonangol is an important source of revenue for the government, but the firm has amassed hundreds of millions of dollars in debts and has deferred payments to its suppliers in recent months.</p>
<p>&#8220;In 2016 it is estimated that there will not be dividends for the shareholder, which is the state,&#8221; Sonangol Chief Executive Isabel dos Santos said at a media briefing on Thursday.</p>
<p>Dos Santos, the daughter of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos who has ruled the oil-rich nation since 1979, added that the firm&#8217;s gross income has dropped to an estimated $15.3 billion, from more than $40 billion in 2013.</p>
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<p>Sonangol&#8217;s debt is estimated at $9.85 billion and the firm still needs to find a source of finance for $1.56 billion in payments to suppliers this year, she said.</p>
<p>&#8220;Sonangol has been honoring the monthly payment related to its financial obligations to the banks,&#8221; Dos Santos said.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


Angola's state-owned oil firm to pay no dividend this year

<p>South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has ordered an investigation into the tax collection authority, officials told parliament on Thursday, underlining rising tensions between the Treasury and the revenue agency.</p>
<p>Gordhan has expressed concerns at the leadership of the South African Revenue Service (SARS), saying earlier this week he could not vouch for the accuracy of the information it provided because of a lack of accountability and cooperation from its top management.</p>
<p>SARS said in a statement on Thursday it was concerned over the comments questioning the integrity of its leadership.</p>
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<p>News of the latest investigation adds to the impression of a system in turmoil after months of tension between President Jacob Zuma and the finance minister, who himself survived a separate probe into allegations of fraud while he was the head of SARS.</p>
<p>The tensions have unnerved investors at a time when Africa&#8217;s most industrialized economy is stalling, with growth forecast at 0.5 percent this year by the Treasury.</p>
<p>An 8-member team set up by the Treasury to investigate governance at SARS said in a presentation to parliament, seen by Reuters, that it was studying whether the agency was sufficiently accountable and had the capacity to deal with illicit financial flows.</p>
<p>It was unclear when the probe was initiated, but Business Day newspaper quoted the head of the committee, Dennis Davis, as saying it had been carrying out its work for several months.</p>
<p>Davis could not be reached for comment at the number provided on the committee&#8217;s website. SARS spokesman Sandile Memela and Treasury spokeswoman Yolisa Tantsi did not immediately reply to telephone and email requests for comment.</p>
<p>&#8220;The implication is that he has a lack of confidence in the top leadership at SARS,&#8221; political analyst Daniel Silke said, referring to Gordhan.</p>
<p>Gordhan and SARS commissioner Tom Moyane, who was appointed in 2014 by Zuma, were at loggerheads earlier this year when Moyane refused to halt an operational turnaround plan that had been vetoed by the minister.</p>
<p>At the time, media reported that Gordhan had threatened to resign from the cabinet unless Moyane was removed from his role.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


South Africa's FinMin Gordhan orders inquiry into tax agency

<p>Madagascar needs to achieve growth of 6.5 percent to help it reduce poverty, the president told a donor conference in Paris on Thursday.</p>
<p>Madagascar&#8217;s economy has been struggling since a 2009 coup scared off foreign investors. The country is one of the world&#8217;s poorest, despite reserves of nickel, cobalt, gold, uranium and other minerals.</p>
<p>&#8220;We need at least 6.5 percent annual growth rate. It is the only guarantor of the structural change that the country needs to reduce poverty,&#8221; President Hery Rajaonarimampianina told the conference.</p>
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<p>General Herilanto Raveloharison, the minister of economy and planning, said the government aimed to reach this target by 2019.</p>
<p>Madagascar&#8217;s population of 24 million people is growing at 2.8 percent annually, according to the World Bank.</p>
<p>In July, the International Monetary Fund announced a package worth $304.7 million in financial assistance for the Indian Ocean island nation under a 40-month extended credit facility. The Fund also said it had trimmed the country&#8217;s economic growth forecast for 2015 to 3.1 percent.﻿</p>
<p> </p>


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Why Ghana President Mahama is asking for a second term

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Gambia's Jammeh in shock election loss after 22-year rule

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