(The host is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Rob Cox
ZURICH, March 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) &#8211; President Tayyip Erdogan’s abrupt firing of a third central bank governor forced investors to contemplate whether this might precipitate a run on financial assets in other developing markets, including South Africa. Breakingviews columnists discuss the implications.
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BREAKINGVIEWS-Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s Crop Estimates Committee released its latest crop estimates on Thursday is a breakdown of the data. SUMMER CROPS &#8211; SECOND PRODUCTION AND REVISED AREA PLANTED FORECAST FOR 2021 SEASON 2021 PREVIOUS 2020 ESTIMATE White Maize Area 1,691,900 ha 1,682,400 ha 1,616,300 ha Production 8,795,890 T 8,799,360 T 8,547,500 T Yellow Maize Area 1,063,500 ha 1,068,500 ha 994,500 ha Production 7,125,900 T 7,049,600 T 6,752,500 T Total Maize Area 2,755,400 ha 2,750,900 ha 2,610,800 ha Production 15,921,790 T 15,848,960 T 15,300,000 T Sunflower Seed Area 477,800 ha 474,800 ha 500,300 ha Production 696,290 T 712,940 T 788,500 T Soya Beans Area 827,100 ha 826,500 ha 705,000 ha Production 1,728,150 T 1,620,900 T 1,245,500 T Ground Nuts Area 38,550 ha 40,050 ha 37,500 ha Production 57,900 T 58,425 T 50,080 T Sorghum Area 49,200 ha 46,200 ha 42,500 ha Production 187,670 T 170,590 T 158,000 T Dry Beans Area 48,890 ha 51,990 ha 50,150 ha Production 62,117 T 65,467 T 64,800 T (Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg Editing by Nqobile Dludla) 
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TABLE-South Africa’s 2020/2021 crop estimates

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; South African farmers to harvest 4% more maize in the 2020/2021 season compared with the previous season as favourable weather conditions boosted yields, the government&#8217;s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said on Thursday.
The CEC estimates the 2021 harvest at 15.922 million tonnes- its second highest crop on record- up from the 15.300 million tonnes harvested last season.
The forecast, the CEC&#8217;s second for the season, expects the 2021 maize crop to be 0.5% higher than its February estimate of 15.849 million tonnes.
The harvest is expected to consist of 8.796 million tonnes of white maize, used for human consumption, and 7.126 million tonnes of yellow maize, used mainly in animal feed, to have been planted.
The governments estimate is slightly lower than a Reuters poll of five traders and analysts that pegged the staple crops output at 16.289 million tonnes. (Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg Editing by Nqobile Dludla)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
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South Africa’s 2021 maize harvest forecast to rise 4% on favourable weather

SINGAPORE, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Middle East crude benchmarks Oman and Dubai remained rangebound on Thursday, while Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) deepened its supply cuts to Asia in June. ADNOC plans to cut crude oil supplies to Asian customers in June to 10% to 15%, from 5% to 15% in May, several sources with knowledge of the matter said. The supply reduction will apply to the four grades of crude that ADNOC sells to Asia, namely Murban, Das, Umm Lulu and Upper Zakum, they said. ADNOC&#8217;s supply reduction was aimed at supporting the market, one of the sources said. &#8220;Apparently the market is very fragile,&#8221; the source said. Destocking activities and refinery maintenance in Asia have dampened Asia&#8217;s demand for incremental supplies from Europe, Africa and the United States, industry sources said. As a result traders were forced to sharply reduce prices for spot cargoes loading in April and May from Europe, Africa and the United States for delivery to Asia. Lockdowns in Europe have also reduced demand, they said. WINDOW Cash Dubai&#8217;s premium to swaps rose 29 cents to $1.40 a barrel. PetroChina will receive a May-loading cargo of Upper Zakum crude from Unipec and an Oman crude cargo from Vitol following the trades. Seller-Buyer Price Unipec-PetroChina (Oman) 62.40 PetroChina-Shell 62.25 Hengli-PetroChina 62.40 Reliance-PetroChina 62.40 Vitol-PetroChina 62.40 Lukoil-PetroChina 62.40 Unipec-PetroChina 62.40 Hengli-PetroChina 62.40 Vitol-PetroChina 62.40 Unipec-PetroChina (Oman) 62.25 Unipec-PetroChina (Oman) 62.40 PRICES ($/BBL) CURRENT PREV SESSION DME OMAN 62.21 61.10 DME OMAN DIFF TO DUBAI 1.21 1.26 CASH DUBAI 62.40 60.95 TENDERS Russia&#8217;s Gazpromneftegaz has sold an ESPO crude cargo loading in May 1-10 to Unipec at a premium of $1-$1.50 a barrel to Dubai quotes, a trader said. NEWS A container ship blocking the Suez Canal like a &#8220;beached whale&#8221; sent new shockwaves through global trade on Thursday as officials stopped all ships entering the channel and the salvage company said it may take weeks to free. China&#8217;s national offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC Ltd 0883.HK reported a 59% plunge in 2020 profit, hitting the lowest since 2017, as the coronavirus pandemic whacked energy prices and hammered fuel consumption. For crude prices, oil product cracks and refining margins, please click on the RICs below. Brent Dubai DME Oman Brent/Dubai EFS &lt;DUB-EFS-1M&gt; PRODUCT CRACKS Fuel oil crack Gasoil crack Naphtha crack &lt;NAF-SIN-CRK&gt; Complex refining margins (Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) 
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Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rangebound; ADNOC deepens supply cuts in June

March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York&#8217;s SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.2% on Wednesday from Tuesday, while holdings of the largest silver-backed ETF, New York&#8217;s iShares Silver Trust, fell 0.6% during the same period. Exchange-traded funds, the most widely recognized type of ETP, back each security issued with physical stocks of a given commodity, creating a product they say is free from counterparty risk. Name New Holdings Date Prev Holdings Prev Abs Change % chg YTD Abs (OZ) (OZ) (OZ) Change (OZ) GOLD SPDR Gold Trust 33,534,534.6 Mar 24 33,609,494.0 Mar 23 -74,959.5 -0.22% -4,105,771.3 COMEX Gold Trust 16,320,008.8 Mar 24 16,322,867.1 Mar 23 -2,858.3 -0.02% -561,642.8 ETF Securities gold (ex-US) 9,293,742.4 Nov 30 9,293,742.4 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Gold ** 5,466,221.5 Mar 19 5,497,364.1 Mar 12 -31,142.6 -0.57% -131,568.0 Sprott Physical Gold Trust 2,604,200.0 Mar 24 2,604,200.0 Mar 23 0.0 0.00% 28,980.0 ETFS Physical Swiss Gold 844,902.3 Jan 24 844,902.3 Jan 24 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ABSA &#8211; NewGold ETF 634,341.3 Mar 24 636,221.1 Mar 23 -1,879.8 -0.30% 10,665.9 Total 68,697,950.9 68,808,791.0 -110,840.2 -0.16% -4,759,336.2 SILVER iShares Silver Trust 582,596,984.0 Mar 24 585,846,244.0 Mar 23 -3,249,260.0 -0.55% 23,881,101.6 Sprott Physical Silver 130,234,711.0 Mar 24 129,834,611.0 Mar 23 400,100.0 0.31% 39,126,056.0 ETF Securities silver ex-US 100,389,761.6 Nov 30 100,389,761.6 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Silver 94,280,964.8 Feb 12 94,280,964.8 Feb 12 &#8212; &#8212; 836,883.9 ETFS Physical Silver Shares 22,908,298.3 Mar 20 22,908,298.3 Mar 20 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; Total 930,410,719.7 933,259,879.7 -2,849,160.0 -0.31% 187,142,101.4 PLATINUM ETFS Physical Platinum Shares 738,343.9 Mar 20 738,343.9 Mar 20 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ABSA &#8211; NewPlat ETF 689,119.7 May 28 689,119.7 May 28 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ETF Securities platinum ex-US 617,330.8 Nov 30 617,330.8 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Platinum 430,400.0 Feb 12 430,400.0 Feb 12 &#8212; &#8212; 7,145.5 Total 2,475,194.4 2,475,194.4 0.0 0.00% 2,051,939.9 PALLADIUM InvestPalladium ETF # 142,113.5 Mar 25 142,113.5 Mar 25 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ETFS Physical Palladium Shares 129,466.6 Mar 20 129,466.6 Mar 20 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ETF Securities palladium ex-US 111,915.0 Nov 30 111,915.0 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Palladium 77,944.9 Feb 12 77,944.9 Feb 12 &#8212; &#8212; -64.3 ABSA &#8211; NewPalladium ETF **** 26,336.7 May 28 26,336.7 May 28 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; Total 487,776.7 487,776.7 0.0 0.00% 409,767.5 The figures above are those reported to Reuters by the organizations involved by telephone or email on the date shown, or those that are publicly available on their websites. ** ZKB physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium funds are fully backed by physical precious metal and investors are entitled to physical delivery of them. *** Shareholders in the GAM Gold fund can elect to hold &#8220;A class&#8221; shares, which are fully backed by physical gold. Investors in that class are entitled to physical delivery of the precious metal. Investors may also elect to hold &#8220;AX&#8221; class shares, which are fully backed by physical gold. Investors in that class are not entitled to physical delivery of the precious metal. **** Absa Capital&#8217;s NewPalladium Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was listed on March 27, 2014 and is fully backed with South African palladium. # Standard Bank&#8217;s AfricaPalladium ETF, South Africa&#8217;s first listed palladium exchange traded fund, debuted on March 24, 2014. 
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
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TABLE-Holdings of SPDR Gold, iShares Silver fall

* European shares fall 0.4%
* Cineworld slumps on plans to raise debt ceiling
* Giant container ship stranded in Suez Canal
* U.S. stock futures edge up
March 25 &#8211; Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
THE (PRICEY) COST OF THE SUEZ CANAL BLOCKAGE (1133 GMT)
A vessel almost as long as the Empire State Building is high is blocking traffic in one of the world&#8217;s busiest shipping channels for oil and other products, pushing down shares of top shipping companies.
AP Moller-Maersk stocks fell about 9.4%, while Hapag Lloyd shares dipped 16.5% this week as efforts to dislodge the 400 m (430 yard) long container vessel that has blocked The Suez Canal continued for a third day.
The incident is proving to be pricey for the industry, with Saxo Bank estimating that there’s almost $10 billion worth of daily marine traffic halted by The Ever Given vessel, owned by Japanese ship-owner Shoei Kisen.
Reports suggests it could even take weeks to free the waterway from the vessel that is now blocking transit in both directions through the busy shipping channel linking Asia and Europe.
ING says ship-owners will be forced to decide whether to wait out the clearing of the stuck vessel or to go around the Cape of Good Hope.
&#8220;The Suez Canal is a vital point for global trade, including energy markets,&#8221; they say citing that around 10% of global seaborne oil trade and around 8% of global LNG trade passes through the canal.
Despite the supply difficulties, oil prices are falling as a new round of coronavirus restrictions in Europe revived worries about demand.
But &#8220;clearly, the longer this disruption lasts the more likely we see refiners/buyers having to turn to the spot market to ensure supply from elsewhere,&#8221; ING says.

(Joice Alves)
******


WHEN COVID RESTRICTIONS SUPPORT HIGH YIELDS (1106 GMT)
The third wave of the pandemic is messing up also corporate credit, with investment grade suffering from more downgrades, while high yield bonds continue their positive momentum.
The high yield (HY) segment, “which is heavily exposed to the manufacturing cycle, is benefiting from the ongoing mini boom in the sector,” BofA analysts say, recalling that German PMI manufacturing hit a record high this month.
Besides, rating agencies may have rushed to excessively downgrade HY-rated firms last year, so the year-to-date upgrades could be driven by a &#8220;balancing act&#8221;, restoring the fair credit rating of some issuers, they add.
The HY segment which is now recording “its fastest start to an upgrade cycle ever,” is likely to continue its positive momentum in the next few months.
But investment grade (IG) debt owners, concerned by a new wave of downgrades triggered by new lockdowns, should keep calm, as the long-awaited European credit rating upgrade cycle “has not fully started yet.”
A meaningful acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the lifting of economic restrictions “will allow a broad and sustained wave of upgrades across all European credit markets.”
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****



WHAT&#8217;S HOT (0929 GMT)
As spring kicked in with much of the Continent confined at home facing a third wave of COVID-19, the world is watching the speed at which people are getting a vaccine.
And as about 500 million doses of the vaccine have been given to people globally, Jefferies has revised its coverage to identify the European stocks with potential to surprise in the next fiscal year.
Bearing in mind that &#8220;the pace of vaccinations by region remains the single biggest determinant of the recovery trajectory,&#8221; Jefferies analysts say.
Earnings positive vibes could come from the following five names as the market has yet to price in a full earnings recovery on these Buy rated companies: ABI, BBVA, Jet2, SAP and Societe Generale. While positive dividend surprises could be seen in Centamin , Glencore and Travis Perkins.
Here is a list of Jefferies recommendations:
(Joice Alves)
*****

GOOD MORNING BROKEN CORRELATIONS! (0838 GMT)
European bourses have opened in the red in a session which is already loaded with contradictions, broken correlations and unusual patterns.
First and foremost, it&#8217;s worth noting that while the STOXX 600 is down about 0.2% in early trading, Wall Street futures are still trading in the black, 0.3% for the S&amp;P and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. It&#8217;s worth noting that S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5% ahead of close yesterday.
Second, while PMIs are one of the key indicators watched by equity strategists, it&#8217;s fair to say that yesterday&#8217;s good surprise had little positive effect.
Looking at oil prices, it&#8217;s another weird one with prices edging down despite the Suez Canal being blocked and disrupting part of the oil trade. Rising Covid cases might be weighing?
So quite counter intuitively, the oil and gas sector is the worst performing one, losing 1.3% at the moment.
Also while growth and tech stocks had been tracking U.S. Treasury yield, the correlation seems broken at the moment if you look at the Nasdaq which yesterday fell along borrowing costs.
There&#8217;s no spillover it seems from the overnight fall of Chinese tech shares due to concerns some may have to delist from U.S. markets.
Today in Europe, the tech sector is down 0.2%, which is just a tad lower than the broader market.
What seems to be the market focus today is how Europe deals with the third wave of the pandemic and whether a vaccine war with the UK can be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)
*****










COVID, MISSILES AND TANKER TAILBACKS (0816 GMT)
Plenty to chew over in what&#8217;s shaping up to be a busy session.
First to note is a sharp fall in dual-listed Chinese company shares after the U.S. securities regulator adopted measures that would kick foreign companies off American stock exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing standards.
Another reason for markets to stay in risk-off mode perhaps was North Korea which launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan. All that weighed on stocks earlier in Asia and now European stock futures are a tad softer.
But the session looks set to brighten up as U.S. equity futures point to a higher open for Wall Street.
They might seek some reassurance from the host of central bankers due to speak later in the day, including the ECB&#8217;s Christine Lagarde. The Swiss National Bank also meets and should keep interest rates at -0.75%, where it&#8217;s been for over six years. Central banks meet in South Africa and Mexico too.
Vaccine rollouts and supplies could be high on the agenda at an EU summit later on. The bloc on Wednesday tightened its oversight of coronavirus vaccine exports, giving it greater scope to block shipments to countries with higher inoculation rates such as Britain.
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a U-turn over imposing a full 5-day lockdown over Easter, concerns about the euro area economy continue to pressure the euro, which is languishing near 4-month lows around $1.18.
Those worries also pulled crude prices more than 1% lower despite the oil tanker tailbacks caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday: &#8211; ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, and Bank of England governor Andre Bailey, participate in a virtual central bank event hosted by BIS. &#8211; Sweden&#8217;s Ingves, Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ECB’s Weidman, ECB&#8217;s Villeroy de Galhau, New York Fed&#8217;s Williams also due to speak. &#8211; U.S. Treasury to auction 7-year bonds; 5-year bonds sold Wednesday with a sold bid (Full Story) &#8211; Italy to launch BTP short-term, a new government bond that will replace CTZ notes &#8211; Final iteration of US Q4 GDP

(Dhara Ranasinghe)
*****


ALONE IN THE RED (0641 GMT)
European futures are currently trading in the red at the same pace as their Wall Street peers are cruising in the black: that&#8217;s about 0.2% give or take.
Tension is building up ahead of the virtual summit at which EU&#8217; leaders will discuss new rules which would allow the bloc vaccine shipments to countries which are not sharing doses they produce.
The threat of a vaccine war adds up to concerns about Europe&#8217;s sluggish vaccination campaign and the new round of lockdowns implemented to keep the third wave of COVID-19 infection under control.
Among other factors weighing on the market today is the selloff in Chinese technology shares due to concerns they could be de-listed from U.S. bourses.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
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&nbsp;

LIVE MARKETS-The (pricey) cost of the Suez Canal blockage

* European shares fall 0.1%
* Cineworld slumps on plans to raise debt ceiling
* Giant container ship stranded in Suez Canal
* U.S. stock futures edge up
March 25 &#8211; Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

WHEN COVID RESTRICTIONS SUPPORT HIGH YIELDS (1106 GMT)
The third wave of the pandemic is messing up also corporate credit, with investment grade suffering from more downgrades, while high yield bonds continue their positive momentum.
The high yield (HY) segment, “which is heavily exposed to the manufacturing cycle, is benefiting from the ongoing mini boom in the sector,” BofA analysts say, recalling that German PMI manufacturing hit a record high this month.
Besides, rating agencies may have rushed to excessively downgrade HY-rated firms last year, so the year-to-date upgrades could be driven by a &#8220;balancing act&#8221;, restoring the fair credit rating of some issuers, they add.
The HY segment which is now recording “its fastest start to an upgrade cycle ever,” is likely to continue its positive momentum in the next few months.
But investment grade (IG) debt owners, concerned by a new wave of downgrades triggered by new lockdowns, should keep calm, as the long-awaited European credit rating upgrade cycle “has not fully started yet.”
A meaningful acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the lifting of economic restrictions “will allow a broad and sustained wave of upgrades across all European credit markets.”
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****



WHAT&#8217;S HOT (0929 GMT)
As spring kicked in with much of the Continent confined at home facing a third wave of COVID-19, the world is watching the speed at which people are getting a vaccine.
And as about 500 million doses of the vaccine have been given to people globally, Jefferies has revised its coverage to identify the European stocks with potential to surprise in the next fiscal year.
Bearing in mind that &#8220;the pace of vaccinations by region remains the single biggest determinant of the recovery trajectory,&#8221; Jefferies analysts say.
Earnings positive vibes could come from the following five names as the market has yet to price in a full earnings recovery on these Buy rated companies: ABI, BBVA, Jet2, SAP and Societe Generale. While positive dividend surprises could be seen in Centamin , Glencore and Travis Perkins.
Here is a list of Jefferies recommendations:
(Joice Alves)
*****

GOOD MORNING BROKEN CORRELATIONS! (0838 GMT)
European bourses have opened in the red in a session which is already loaded with contradictions, broken correlations and unusual patterns.
First and foremost, it&#8217;s worth noting that while the STOXX 600 is down about 0.2% in early trading, Wall Street futures are still trading in the black, 0.3% for the S&amp;P and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. It&#8217;s worth noting that S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5% ahead of close yesterday.
Second, while PMIs are one of the key indicators watched by equity strategists, it&#8217;s fair to say that yesterday&#8217;s good surprise had little positive effect.
Looking at oil prices, it&#8217;s another weird one with prices edging down despite the Suez Canal being blocked and disrupting part of the oil trade. Rising Covid cases might be weighing?
So quite counter intuitively, the oil and gas sector is the worst performing one, losing 1.3% at the moment.
Also while growth and tech stocks had been tracking U.S. Treasury yield, the correlation seems broken at the moment if you look at the Nasdaq which yesterday fell along borrowing costs.
There&#8217;s no spillover it seems from the overnight fall of Chinese tech shares due to concerns some may have to delist from U.S. markets.
Today in Europe, the tech sector is down 0.2%, which is just a tad lower than the broader market.
What seems to be the market focus today is how Europe deals with the third wave of the pandemic and whether a vaccine war with the UK can be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)
*****










COVID, MISSILES AND TANKER TAILBACKS (0816 GMT)
Plenty to chew over in what&#8217;s shaping up to be a busy session.
First to note is a sharp fall in dual-listed Chinese company shares after the U.S. securities regulator adopted measures that would kick foreign companies off American stock exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing standards.
Another reason for markets to stay in risk-off mode perhaps was North Korea which launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan. All that weighed on stocks earlier in Asia and now European stock futures are a tad softer.
But the session looks set to brighten up as U.S. equity futures point to a higher open for Wall Street.
They might seek some reassurance from the host of central bankers due to speak later in the day, including the ECB&#8217;s Christine Lagarde. The Swiss National Bank also meets and should keep interest rates at -0.75%, where it&#8217;s been for over six years. Central banks meet in South Africa and Mexico too.
Vaccine rollouts and supplies could be high on the agenda at an EU summit later on. The bloc on Wednesday tightened its oversight of coronavirus vaccine exports, giving it greater scope to block shipments to countries with higher inoculation rates such as Britain.
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a U-turn over imposing a full 5-day lockdown over Easter, concerns about the euro area economy continue to pressure the euro, which is languishing near 4-month lows around $1.18.
Those worries also pulled crude prices more than 1% lower despite the oil tanker tailbacks caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday: &#8211; ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, and Bank of England governor Andre Bailey, participate in a virtual central bank event hosted by BIS. &#8211; Sweden&#8217;s Ingves, Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ECB’s Weidman, ECB&#8217;s Villeroy de Galhau, New York Fed&#8217;s Williams also due to speak. &#8211; U.S. Treasury to auction 7-year bonds; 5-year bonds sold Wednesday with a sold bid (Full Story) &#8211; Italy to launch BTP short-term, a new government bond that will replace CTZ notes &#8211; Final iteration of US Q4 GDP

(Dhara Ranasinghe)
*****


ALONE IN THE RED (0641 GMT)
European futures are currently trading in the red at the same pace as their Wall Street peers are cruising in the black: that&#8217;s about 0.2% give or take.
Tension is building up ahead of the virtual summit at which EU&#8217; leaders will discuss new rules which would allow the bloc vaccine shipments to countries which are not sharing doses they produce.
The threat of a vaccine war adds up to concerns about Europe&#8217;s sluggish vaccination campaign and the new round of lockdowns implemented to keep the third wave of COVID-19 infection under control.
Among other factors weighing on the market today is the selloff in Chinese technology shares due to concerns they could be de-listed from U.S. bourses.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

LIVE MARKETS-When Covid restrictions support high yields

By Orhan Coskun and Humeyra Pamuk
ANKARA, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; When Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan last received Joe Biden on official business, in August 2016, Erdogan had just sent tanks into Syria.
Seated by Erdogan&#8217;s side on a cream-and-gold-leaf chair in Ankara&#8217;s presidential palace, then-Vice President Biden said, &#8220;We&#8217;re supportive of the operation.&#8221;
U.S. air support helped that incursion, as Washington put on a show of solidarity after a coup attempt against Erdogan the previous month; Biden visited parliament to see the bomb damage inflicted when rogue troops in tanks and fighter jets had tried to seize power.
Nearly five years on, Biden is president and Erdogan&#8217;s interventions abroad have multiplied, to the point where Turkey has a stake in many of the struggles that Biden must contend with in the world&#8217;s most volatile region. Interviews with a dozen insiders and officials from both countries show how the weeks around the coup and Biden&#8217;s visit set the stage for a new era of Turkish power projection, starting with that incursion into Syria.
Turkey has muscled its way to prominence in the Middle East, North Africa and the Caucasus. At home, Erdogan launched a purge which would eventually remove 20,000 military personnel, and started to concentrate authority around the presidency.
Leaning heavily on a close personal relationship with Biden&#8217;s predecessor Donald Trump &#8211; advisers said Erdogan used to call Trump on the golf course &#8211; Erdogan developed a vision of what one Western diplomat called &#8220;a club of strong leaders who sort out the world.&#8221;
That was a vision Erdogan shared with Trump, but not with Biden, who has publicly described Erdogan as an autocrat, and promised U.S. diplomats in February the United States would address a &#8220;new moment of advancing authoritarianism&#8221; in the world through old-fashioned diplomacy and alliance-building.
It will not be easy. Since 2016, the Turkish leader has waged three more incursions in Syria, one directly targeting Kurdish fighters allied with the United States. He has changed the course of Libya&#8217;s civil war, bought weapons from Russia, challenged the maritime claims of European neighbours in the east Mediterranean, and backed Azerbaijan&#8217;s military victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh.
At the weekend, Erdogan abruptly pulled Turkey out of a convention protecting women from violence, a move that his U.S. and EU allies said marked another backward step for human rights in Turkey. He also plunged markets into turmoil by sacking a central bank governor admired by Western investors.
Still, Turkey hopes a European Union summit this week can be a step to improving strained ties, the government says. Erdogan has also said he will seek good relations with Biden, but he insists Turkey needs to protect its interests.
&#8220;We have no eyes on any country&#8217;s land, sea or sovereignty,&#8221; Erdogan told officers at the end of a major Mediterranean naval exercise this month. &#8220;We are just trying to protect our homeland and our rights.&#8221;
Asked if U.S. support for Turkey&#8217;s earliest Syria incursion may have encouraged Ankara in its military operations, the State Department declined to comment.
&#8220;The U.S. is trying to patch together the very status quo Erdogan rejects,&#8221; said Max Hoffman, associate director at the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank which has helped shape policies of Biden&#8217;s Democrat Party. &#8220;There is obvious tension.&#8221;

THE &#8216;A-TEAM&#8217;
When Biden visited Turkey in 2016, the country was in shock from the failed coup. But Erdogan, who had long chafed against a powerful military that resisted his calls for intervention in Syria, saw opportunity in the turmoil. He described the coup attempt as a &#8220;gift from God&#8221; and an opportunity to cleanse the army.
Two Turkish officials close to him say two incidents four years apart show how power shifted to the president. When a Turkish reconnaissance plane was shot down by Syria in 2012, Erdogan wanted to send five Turkish jets to strike Syrian targets in retaliation, but was overruled by officers who said that would risk an escalation the army was not ready for.
Turkey&#8217;s defence ministry declined to comment on that account.
A month after the 2016 coup attempt, when an Islamic State suicide bomber hit a wedding in southern Turkey, Erdogan was determined to strike the Islamist group in its Syrian haven. This time, and with U.S. help, he succeeded.
Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, who served as senior ministers in Erdogan governments before breaking away to set up rival political parties, told Reuters that starting in 2016 the president sidelined the foreign ministry as well as the military general staff.
Babacan, a former economy and foreign minister, said Turkey had previously avoided direct military interventions. Davutoglu, who served as prime minister and championed a policy of &#8220;zero problems with neighbours,&#8221; said that before 2016, &#8220;opinions would be sought &#8230; We would then reach a final view and convey it to the prime minister or president.&#8221;
Those former allies said the change to a narrow circle of advisers accelerated Turkey&#8217;s more hawkish stance.
Officially, security and military decisions are taken by the cabinet and National Security Council, but three political and security officials, as well as diplomats and analysts, say Erdogan relies mainly on Hulusi Akar &#8211; a military commander held hostage in the 2016 coup who is now defence minister &#8211; as well as intelligence chief Hakan Fidan and presidential spokesman and adviser Ibrahim Kalin.
&#8220;These people, who almost always come together for foreign operations, work as Erdogan&#8217;s A-Team,&#8221; said a security official who works with the presidency.
Officials from the presidency, intelligence organisation and defence ministry declined to comment on the roles played by Akar, Fidan and Kalin, or the statements by the former ministers.

FRENEMIES
A Turkish aide summed up Erdogan&#8217;s mindset as &#8220;Turkey first.&#8221; Ankara, the aide said, was tired of scenarios where the United States or Russia &#8220;sets the rules, while Turkey pays the price.&#8221;
The 2016 operation in Syria, for example, curbed the gains of Kurdish fighters the United States had picked as partners against Islamic State. Erdogan went on to play dual roles with Moscow and Washington.
In Libya, Turkey sent armed drones, military trainers and Syrian mercenaries to drive back an assault on Tripoli that had been backed by Russia. His move against Moscow came months after Turkey bought $2.5 billion of Russian missile defence systems &#8211; a deal which in turn angered Washington and led to U.S. sanctions on Turkey&#8217;s defence industry.
&#8220;It was very evident that they were trying to exert more influence in the Middle East region and some of the Gulf states as well,&#8221; General Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. troops in the Middle East at the time, told Reuters.
Erdogan has also challenged the European Union, sending ships to explore for natural gas in waters long claimed by Greece and Cyprus. When the EU threatened sanctions, Erdogan ignored the threats.
Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, Erdogan set up military bases in Qatar and Somalia, projecting Turkish force into the Gulf and Horn of Africa.
&#8220;As these operations were undertaken, Turkey realized its own capabilities, and realized that its competitors were unable – or unwilling – to react,&#8221; said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Turkey director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
&#8220;Turkey basically had a free hand &#8230; and realized it could change the reality on the ground.&#8221;
GAME-CHANGER
Erdogan also found home-grown military solutions. His son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar co-owns Baykar, a company that pioneered Turkey&#8217;s domestic drone production. Its aircraft have helped the army strike distant opponents without risking military lives in combat, and are part of Ankara&#8217;s self-declared drive to develop an independent arms industry.
Turkey says it has used drones against Kurdish militants in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq, where deploying ground troops is hazardous. In Libya, its drones destroyed Russian air defence systems. In a campaign against Russian-backed Syrian government forces in Idlib in northern Syria in early 2020, drones helped strike three Syrian fighter jets, eight helicopters and 151 tanks, according to the Turkish military.
The scale and impact of the operations has grabbed attention.
&#8220;Even if only half those claims are true, the implications are game-changing,&#8221; said Britain&#8217;s Defence Minister Ben Wallace in a speech about the future of air power in conflict. Turkey has deployed electronic warfare, lightly armed drones and smart ammunition &#8220;to stop tanks, armoured cars and air defence systems in their tracks.&#8221;
Beyond the battlefield, Erdogan&#8217;s highly personalised diplomacy has changed the course of events. He spoke regularly to Trump, in calls that U.S. advisers said often veered off the scripts U.S. administration officials prepared.
Erdogan intensified that connection in March 2018 after Trump fired his secretary of state and national security adviser, who had been working to defuse a dispute with Turkey over Syria. The sacking led Erdogan to behave as if contact with anyone other than the president was a waste of time, said Fiona Hill, who served as senior director for European and Russian Affairs on Trump&#8217;s National Security Council.
On a call in December 2018, Trump was briefed to warn Erdogan against an operation in northeast Syria where the Turkish leader planned to target the U.S.-allied Kurds, according to U.S. officials. Instead, encouraged by Erdogan, Trump promised to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and hand responsibility for fighting Islamic State in Syria to Turkey.
That decision, later partly reversed, surprised even Erdogan&#8217;s officials, they told Reuters.
BIDEN SILENT
Erdogan has since resumed talks with Greece over their maritime dispute, toned down a war of words with France&#8217;s president and played up prospects of mending ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
But his incursions have earned him enemies, and as his inner circle has narrowed at home, polls have shown falling support for his party, which relied on an alliance with a smaller nationalist party for a majority in the 2018 parliamentary vote.
A compilation of 15 recent polls in February showed their support at 46%, suggesting he faces a battle to extend his power into a third decade in elections due by 2023.
More immediately, he faces a new administration in the White House.
Last week, Erdogan chided Biden for saying in a U.S. television interview he thought Putin was a killer, describing the comments as unacceptable and unfitting for a U.S. President.
Two months after taking office, Biden has yet to call the Turkish president. (Orhan Coskun reported from Ankara, Humeya Pamuk from Washington, D.C.; Writing by Dominic Evans; Edited by Sara Ledwith)
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INSIGHT-“Turkey First:” Erdogan’s power push poses challenge for Biden

NAIROBI, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; The first 723,000 of up to 7 million COVID-19 vaccine doses that MTN Group is donating to African countries have arrived in nine nations, the African Union&#8217;s disease control body said on Thursday.
Africa CDC Director John Nkengasong told a news conference that Ghana, Gambia, Liberia, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritius and Togo had received doses from the South African telecoms company.
Several other countries, including South Sudan and Malawi, are due to receive doses in the coming days.
MTN is donating $25 million to support the African Union’s vaccination programme. The doses will be distributed to health workers across the bloc&#8217;s 55 member states, MTN said this week.
African countries have begun vaccinating their citizens only in recent weeks after richer countries secured early supplies.
Africa is relying primarily on free doses from the World Health Organization-backed COVAX vaccine-sharing facility, which aims to secure 2 billion vaccine doses by the end of 2021. (Reporting by Nairobi newsroom, Editing by Maggie Fick and Timothy Heritage)
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Nine African countries take delivery of COVID-19 vaccines donated by MTN Group

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; The chairman of South Africa&#8217;s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 (MAC), Professor Salim Abdool Karim, stepped down on Thursday, the health ministry said, following a meeting of the body to mark the first anniversary of its formation.
Professor Marian Jacobs, previously co-chair of the advisory body, will take up the role temporarily, the ministry said.
South Africa has been the hardest hit nation on the continent by COVID-19, with the highest number of confirmed cases at over 1.5 million, with more than 50,000 related deaths.
The rollout of vaccines has been slow, with only 207,000 people, mainly frontline health workers, inoculated so far. The government plans to vaccinate 40 million people, or two-thirds of the population, to achieve some level of herd immunity.
&#8220;Karim had expressed his desire to return to the important work he was doing, particularly in HIV research and innovation, before his appointment as Chair of the MAC,&#8221; the ministry said.
After pausing the roll-out of the AstraZeneca vaccine, South Africa started inoculating healthcare workers with Johnson &amp; Johnson shots in a research study. (Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana, Editing by William Maclean)
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Head of South Africa’s coronavirus committee steps down

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Ed Cropley
LONDON, March 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) &#8211; The Ever Given continues to block the Egyptian canal. Barring progress, shipping firms may soon have to re-route vessels around Africa, adding seven days and extra fuel costs. A year ago, with crude prices tumbling, many did that anyway. With oil dearer, it’s a painful choice.
Full view will be published shortly.
On Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardcropley

CONTEXT NEWS
&#8211; Efforts to dislodge a 400-metre (1,312-foot) long container vessel choking traffic along the Suez Canal resumed at high tide on March 25, with five tugs working to drag the vessel to deeper water.
&#8211; The Ever Given vessel ran aground diagonally across the single-lane stretch of the southern canal on March 23 after losing the ability to steer amid high winds and a dust storm, the Suez Canal Authority said.
&#8211; Roughly 30% of the world’s shipping container volume goes through the 193-kilometre (120-mile) Suez Canal daily, representing 12% of total global trade of all goods.
&#8211; Brent crude oil futures climbed nearly 6% on March 24 to $64.57 a barrel amid concerns about disruptions to global supplies. They were down 1.8% at $63.28 per barrel by 0900 GMT on March 25.
&#8211; For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on
&#8211; SIGN UP FOR BREAKINGVIEWS EMAIL ALERTS http://bit.ly/BVsubscribe
(Editing by George Hay and Oliver Taslic)
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BREAKINGVIEWS-Suez blockage comes a year too late

By Nellie Peyton and Ngouda Dione
DAKAR, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; When Senegal erupted in violent protests this month over perceived injustice and inequality, artist Omar Ba was tackling the issues in his own way, with paint on canvas.
&#8220;What the youth are doing in the streets is the same thing I&#8217;m doing in my studio,&#8221; said Ba, stepping in black paint and making footprints on a new canvas in his airy workspace outside the capital, Dakar.
Ba, one of Senegal&#8217;s best-known contemporary artists, has often used his art to make political statements. A current exhibit at the Galerie Templon in Brussels, &#8216;Anomalies&#8217;, critiques power-hungry leaders through a series of portraits of imaginary heads of state.
Ba said he was shocked to see such intense violence on the streets of his own country, widely viewed as a model of stability in West Africa.
&#8220;These are things I had seen on TV, but never here,&#8221; he told Reuters in an interview.
&#8220;I think visual art is something I have to use to denounce what&#8217;s not working, or to talk about what is positive, in society.&#8221;
The protests were triggered by the arrest of a popular opposition leader, but gathered pace on a wave of anger over economic inequality that has widened during the coronavirus pandemic. Thousands took to the streets, hurling rocks at security forces, who opened fire on protesters.
Some worry Senegal&#8217;s President Macky Sall will try to extend his rule beyond the allotted two terms, following a pattern of African leaders such as Ivory Coast&#8217;s Alassane Ouattara and Guinea&#8217;s Alpha Conde who used constitutional changes to reset their time in power.
Sall has not commented on whether he will seek a third term.
Ba normally keeps his subjects anonymous, so as to focus on themes rather than individuals, but for his next collection he said he might depict Sall.
&#8220;Once they&#8217;re elected, (heads of state) completely change their discourse. I wanted to talk about that, and that&#8217;s why I called this exhibition &#8216;Anomalies&#8217;,&#8221; said Ba.
Four of the 12 paintings in the series deal with the coronavirus pandemic, conveying confusion and entrapment with the use of interlacing shapes and footprints.
COVID-19 exposed inequality and corruption in Africa, Ba said, and forced even the wealthy to rely on the ill-equipped public health services that they can normally afford to escape.
&#8220;Nobody could take planes to get treatment in Europe or the United States, and that was really great, because for once people realized that in their own hospitals there was nothing.&#8221; (Additional reporting by Cooper Inveen Editing by Edward McAllister and Alexandra Hudson)
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Senegalese artist Omar Ba tackles politics and the pandemic with paint

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s producer price inflation (PPI) quickened to 4% year on year in February from 3.5% in January, the statistics agency said on Thursday. On a month-on-month basis, the PPI rate was at 0.7% in February from a 0.8% increase in the previous month, Statistics South Africa said. Percentage changes: Feb Feb Jan Jan y/y m/m y/y m/m Final manufactured goods 4.0 0.7 3.5 0.8 Intermediate manufactured goods 9.9 2.0 8.6 2.4 Electricity and water 9.2 2.9 8.7 -1.1 Mining and quarrying 11.5 4.0 22.9 4.3 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.0 -2.1 11.3 1.5 (Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana) 
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TABLE-South Africa’s producer price inflation rises to 4% year on year in February

* Flurry of offers from storage as Brent in backwardation
* Asia Q2 demand lower on refinery maintenance
* Sellers of Russian, African, U.S. oil grades cut prices
By Florence Tan, Olga Yagova and Devika Krishna Kumar
March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Crude oil producers from Europe, Africa and the United States faced difficulties selling to Asia, especially China, as buyers took cheaper oil from storage while refinery maintenance has reduced demand, industry sources said on Thursday.
Chinese independent refiners, which account for a fifth of the country&#8217;s imports, have slowed imports in the second quarter because of refinery maintenance, strong Brent prices and a large influx of supplies, including Iranian oil, in first quarter.
These buyers and others in Asia are lapping up cheap oil offered by traders under pressure to clear storage after Brent crude flipped into backwardation, with prices for prompt delivery higher than those for future months, traders said.
As a result traders were forced to sharply reduce prices for spot cargoes loading in April and May from Europe, Africa and the United States for delivery to Asia.
Lockdowns in Europe have also reduced demand, they said.
&#8220;Barrels are struggling to find homes in the export market as Asia still isn’t buying and Europe is struggling as well,&#8221; said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at United ICAP.
Crude grades priced on Brent were worst hit, traders said, as a wide spread between the global benchmark and Middle East&#8217;s Dubai crude price made them least appealing to Asian buyers. &lt;DUB-EFS-1M&gt;
&#8220;China&#8217;s demand for (Russian) Urals, West African, CPC Blend oil just evaporated. Buying from stock is much more interesting for them now,&#8221; said a source with a western trading house.
Caspian CPC Blend crude&#8217;s discount to dated Brent widened to $2.85 per barrel, the lowest since mid-May 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic caused oil demand to plunge, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. &lt;BFO-CPC&gt;
CPC Blend is a popular grade with South Korean refiners, but this month they also minimized oil purchases amid refinery maintenance and buying from storage, two traders said.
Unipec, the trading arm of Asia&#8217;s largest refiner Sinopec , offered six of its 10 term Angolan crude cargoes in April to the market, traders said.
An April-loading cargo of Angolan Mostarda crude sold this month for $1.50 a barrel below dated Brent, down over a dollar from levels seen in the previous month, they said.
&#8220;There&#8217;s just too much supply so buyers want to see cheap cargoes,&#8221; a Singapore-based trader said.
Reduced Asian buying also put pressure on U.S. Gulf Coast grades. WTI at East Houston &lt;WTC-MEH&gt;, a popular export grade, slumped to the weakest since October this week as export activity for April has been muted.
U.S. crude arrivals in Asia are expected to drop to about 30 million barrels in April, the lowest since June 2020, according to initial assessments from Refinitiv Oil Research on Eikon.
However, the recent drop in Brent crude prices closer to $60 a barrel if sustained, could help revive Asia&#8217;s demand in late June or early July, traders said.
By that time, Asia&#8217;s peak maintenance season would have ended while inventories would have largely been drawn down, they said.
(Reporting by Olga Yagova and Gleb Gorodyankin in MOSCOW, Florence Tan in SINGAPORE, Noah Browning in LONDON and Devika Krishna Kumar in NEW YORK, writing by Olga Yagova; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
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Global oil markets under pressure as Asia destocks, China imports slowed

* European stocks slip
* Cineworld dips on plans to raise debt ceiling
* Giant container ship stranded in Suez Canal
March 25 &#8211; Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
WHAT&#8217;S HOT (0929 GMT)
As spring kicked in with much of the Continent confined at home facing a third wave of COVID-19, the world is watching the speed at which people are getting a vaccine.
And as about 500 million doses of the vaccine have been given to people globally, Jefferies has revised its coverage to identify the European stocks with potential to surprise in the next fiscal year.
Bearing in mind that &#8220;the pace of vaccinations by region remains the single biggest determinant of the recovery trajectory,&#8221; Jefferies analysts say.
Earnings positive vibes could come from the following five names as the market has yet to price in a full earnings recovery on these Buy rated companies: ABI, BBVA, Jet2, SAP and Societe Generale. While positive dividend surprises could be seen in Centamin , Glencore and Travis Perkins.
Here is a list of Jefferies recommendations:
(Joice Alves)
*****

GOOD MORNING BROKEN CORRELATIONS! (0838 GMT)
European bourses have opened in the red in a session which is already loaded with contradictions, broken correlations and unusual patterns.
First and foremost, it&#8217;s worth noting that while the STOXX 600 is down about 0.2% in early trading, Wall Street futures are still trading in the black, 0.3% for the S&amp;P and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. It&#8217;s worth noting that S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5% ahead of close yesterday.
Second, while PMIs are one of the key indicators watched by equity strategists, it&#8217;s fair to say that yesterday&#8217;s good surprise had little positive effect.
Looking at oil prices, it&#8217;s another weird one with prices edging down despite the Suez Canal being blocked and disrupting part of the oil trade. Rising Covid cases might be weighing?
So quite counter intuitively, the oil and gas sector is the worst performing one, losing 1.3% at the moment.
Also while growth and tech stocks had been tracking U.S. Treasury yield, the correlation seems broken at the moment if you look at the Nasdaq which yesterday fell along borrowing costs.
There&#8217;s no spillover it seems from the overnight fall of Chinese tech shares due to concerns some may have to delist from U.S. markets.
Today in Europe, the tech sector is down 0.2%, which is just a tad lower than the broader market.
What seems to be the market focus today is how Europe deals with the third wave of the pandemic and whether a vaccine war with the UK can be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)
*****










COVID, MISSILES AND TANKER TAILBACKS (0816 GMT)
Plenty to chew over in what&#8217;s shaping up to be a busy session.
First to note is a sharp fall in dual-listed Chinese company shares after the U.S. securities regulator adopted measures that would kick foreign companies off American stock exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing standards.
Another reason for markets to stay in risk-off mode perhaps was North Korea which launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan. All that weighed on stocks earlier in Asia and now European stock futures are a tad softer.
But the session looks set to brighten up as U.S. equity futures point to a higher open for Wall Street.
They might seek some reassurance from the host of central bankers due to speak later in the day, including the ECB&#8217;s Christine Lagarde. The Swiss National Bank also meets and should keep interest rates at -0.75%, where it&#8217;s been for over six years. Central banks meet in South Africa and Mexico too.
Vaccine rollouts and supplies could be high on the agenda at an EU summit later on. The bloc on Wednesday tightened its oversight of coronavirus vaccine exports, giving it greater scope to block shipments to countries with higher inoculation rates such as Britain.
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a U-turn over imposing a full 5-day lockdown over Easter, concerns about the euro area economy continue to pressure the euro, which is languishing near 4-month lows around $1.18.
Those worries also pulled crude prices more than 1% lower despite the oil tanker tailbacks caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday: &#8211; ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, and Bank of England governor Andre Bailey, participate in a virtual central bank event hosted by BIS. &#8211; Sweden&#8217;s Ingves, Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ECB’s Weidman, ECB&#8217;s Villeroy de Galhau, New York Fed&#8217;s Williams also due to speak. &#8211; U.S. Treasury to auction 7-year bonds; 5-year bonds sold Wednesday with a sold bid (Full Story) &#8211; Italy to launch BTP short-term, a new government bond that will replace CTZ notes &#8211; Final iteration of US Q4 GDP

(Dhara Ranasinghe)
*****


ALONE IN THE RED (0641 GMT)
European futures are currently trading in the red at the same pace as their Wall Street peers are cruising in the black: that&#8217;s about 0.2% give or take.
Tension is building up ahead of the virtual summit at which EU&#8217; leaders will discuss new rules which would allow the bloc vaccine shipments to countries which are not sharing doses they produce.
The threat of a vaccine war adds up to concerns about Europe&#8217;s sluggish vaccination campaign and the new round of lockdowns implemented to keep the third wave of COVID-19 infection under control.
Among other factors weighing on the market today is the selloff in Chinese technology shares due to concerns they could be de-listed from U.S. bourses.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
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LIVE MARKETS-What’s hot

* South African central bank expected to hold rates steady
* MSCI emerging market currency index slips to two-week low
* Developing world stocks hit lowest level so far in 2021
* Turkey&#8217;s weekly forex reserves data due later in the day
By Sagarika Jaisinghani
March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; The South African rand firmed on Thursday ahead of a central bank policy decision on interest rates, while other emerging market currencies and stocks slipped for a fifth straight day on fears of a potential global tightening in monetary policy.
The rand was up about 0.2% against the dollar, rising for the first time in four days as the spillover from a central bank shake-up in Turkey faded.
South Africa&#8217;s Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep its repo rate at a record low of 3.5%, particularly as data on Wednesday showed the domestic consumer inflation rate dipped below its target range in February.
&#8220;We assume that the rate vote will confirm the SARB&#8217;s foresighted and stability-orientated course, so we do not expect significant momentum for the rand on this front,&#8221; Elisabeth Andreae, FX analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note.
A basket of emerging market stocks slid to its lowest level this year, with Chinese and Hong Kong equities slipping as the U.S. securities regulator moved to impose measures that could de-list some Chinese firms from U.S. exchanges.
The MSCI index of developing world currencies fell about 0.2% to a two-week low as expectations of stronger U.S. economic growth, rising U.S. bond yields and new COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe lifted the dollar.
&#8220;A stronger dollar will dampen demand for emerging markets commodities and make their dollar-denominated debt challenging to service, especially with rising longer-term interest rates,&#8221; said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.
&#8220;So far, this risk seems insignificant but another sharp spike in yields and the dollar will increase the probability of a sovereign debt crisis in the EM world.&#8221;
The Turkish lira eased about 0.6% after slumping 7.5% on Monday after President Tayyip Erdogan replaced a hawkish central bank governor with a critic of high interest rates, sparking fears of a reversal of rate hikes that had revived the currency amid Turkey&#8217;s depleted forex reserves.
The central bank is due to release its weekly data on forex reserves at 1130 GMT, although the figures cover the week ended March 20, before the market turmoil from the latest central bank shake-up.
The Russian rouble rebounded 0.8%, supported by local tax payment requirements, after hitting its lowest so far this year on Wednesday on fears of new U.S. sanctions.
Later in the day, eyes will be on Mexico&#8217;s central bank policy meeting, with signs of quickening inflation raising expectations that the bank will hold interest rates. The Mexican peso was up about 0.1% against the dollar on Thursday. For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2021, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2021, see https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets
For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see
For TURKISH market report, see
For RUSSIAN market report, see
(Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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EMERGING MARKETS-South African rand rises with eyes on cbank rate decision, other FX slide

March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; SA&#8217;S COMPETITION TRIBUNAL:
* SA&#8217;S COMPETITION TRIBUNAL GRANTS GOVCHAT, #LETSTALK INTERIM RELIEF AGAINST WHATSAPP AND FACEBOOK
* SA&#8217;S COMPETITION TRIBUNAL- FACEBOOK, WHATSAPP, FACEBOOK SOUTH AFRICA INTERDICTED, RESTRAINED BY TRIBUNAL FROM REMOVING GOVCHAT FROM WHATSAPP PLATFORM
* SA&#8217;S COMPETITION TRIBUNAL &#8211; TRIBUNAL HAS NOT CONCLUDED ON WHETHER OR NOT WHATSAPP/FACEBOOK HAVE CONTRAVENED COMPETITION ACT
* SA&#8217;S COMPETITION TRIBUNAL &#8211; FOUND SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE THAT APPLICANTS SHOULD BE GRANTED INTERIM RELIEF WHILE COMPLAINT AGAINST FB BEING INVESTIGATED Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:
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Newsfeed

BREAKINGVIEWS-Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

TABLE-South Africa’s 2020/2021 crop estimates

South Africa’s 2021 maize harvest forecast to rise 4% on favourable weather

Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rangebound; ADNOC deepens supply cuts in June

TABLE-Holdings of SPDR Gold, iShares Silver fall

LIVE MARKETS-The (pricey) cost of the Suez Canal blockage

LIVE MARKETS-When Covid restrictions support high yields

INSIGHT-“Turkey First:” Erdogan’s power push poses challenge for Biden

Nine African countries take delivery of COVID-19 vaccines donated by MTN Group

Head of South Africa’s coronavirus committee steps down

BREAKINGVIEWS-Suez blockage comes a year too late

Senegalese artist Omar Ba tackles politics and the pandemic with paint

TABLE-South Africa’s producer price inflation rises to 4% year on year in February

Global oil markets under pressure as Asia destocks, China imports slowed

LIVE MARKETS-What’s hot

EMERGING MARKETS-South African rand rises with eyes on cbank rate decision, other FX slide

BRIEF-SA’s Competition Tribunal Grants Govchat, Letstalk Interim Relief Against Whatsapp & Facebook

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BREAKINGVIEWS-Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

TABLE-South Africa’s 2020/2021 crop estimates

South Africa’s 2021 maize harvest forecast to rise 4% on favourable weather

Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rangebound; ADNOC deepens supply cuts in June

TABLE-Holdings of SPDR Gold, iShares Silver fall

LIVE MARKETS-The (pricey) cost of the Suez Canal blockage

LIVE MARKETS-When Covid restrictions support high yields

INSIGHT-“Turkey First:” Erdogan’s power push poses challenge for Biden

Nine African countries take delivery of COVID-19 vaccines donated by MTN Group

Head of South Africa’s coronavirus committee steps down

BREAKINGVIEWS-Suez blockage comes a year too late

Senegalese artist Omar Ba tackles politics and the pandemic with paint

TABLE-South Africa’s producer price inflation rises to 4% year on year in February

Global oil markets under pressure as Asia destocks, China imports slowed

LIVE MARKETS-What’s hot

EMERGING MARKETS-South African rand rises with eyes on cbank rate decision, other FX slide

BRIEF-SA’s Competition Tribunal Grants Govchat, Letstalk Interim Relief Against Whatsapp & Facebook

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