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 In one year alone 380,000 domestic applicants didn’t get a university place in Nigeria.
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-mba-700207">David Mba</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/de-montfort-university-1254">De Montfort University</a>

Why are Nigeria’s universities in such a sorry state? Some would say it had to do with just one word: money. Sadly this is part of the reason. But not entirely. 

Nigeria’s universities have been under-funded for <a href="https://repository.library.northeastern.edu/files/neu:cj82pz897/fulltext.pdf">decades</a>. Like a talented but under-achieving football team, fail to achieve goals because the country hasn’t invested enough in their structure, their facilities and their people.

Higher education in Nigeria includes universities (federal, state and private) as well as polytechnics (skills-intensive and experiential learning programmes) and colleges of education. With over 160 universities, 128 polytechnics and 177 colleges of education, it constitutes the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273699592_Higher_Education_in_Nigeria_and_the_Emergence_of_Private_Universities">largest higher education system</a> in Africa. 

My colleague Professor Val Ekechukwu, the Dean of Engineering at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, and I did a <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/02/03/are-nigerias-universities-hitting-enough-goals/">review</a> of Nigeria’s top 12 universities to assess their academic output. This review was undertaken as part of a comparative assessment of Nigerian universities to other emerging global economies (Brazil, Turkey and Thailand). The review hasn’t been published in an academic journal but its contents have been made available to readers interested in the development of tertiary education in Nigeria <a href="https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/02/03/are-nigerias-universities-hitting-enough-goals/">via news outlets</a>.

We found that the country’s universities lag well behind equivalent emerging global economies like South Africa, Egypt, Thailand, Turkey and Brazil. They also lag behind traditional world leaders. 

We sourced the data for our paper from <a href="https://www.scival.com/">SciVal</a>. This tracks the research performance of over 10,400 research institutions from 230 countries. 

<h2>The problems</h2>

Decades of under-funding in universities has had dramatic consequences. These include:

<ul>
<li>Nigeria’s university system isn’t big enough. The country’s <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html">population</a> is now pushing towards 200 million, over 60% of which is under the age of 25 years. Demand for university places vastly exceeds current capacity. In 2017, 380,000 domestic university applicants didn’t get a <a href="https://thepienews.com/analysis/two-million-applicants-for-750k-places-nigerias-bid-to-tackle-its-capacity-issue/">university place</a>.</li>
<li>Nigerian universities lack prestige. According to the 2019 Times Higher Education world university rankings, <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/best-universities/best-universities-africa">Nigeria has two</a> universities in the world’s top thousand – Covenant University and the University of Ibadan. This compares to nine from South Africa – out of a total of <a href="https://www.usaf.ac.za/public-universities-in-south-africa/">26 in total</a> – and 11 from Egypt.</li>
<li>Universities under-perform on research. According to our research, Nigeria’s universities produce only 44% of the “scholarly output” of South Africa and 32% of Egypt. This is despite the fact that Nigeria has nearly four times more universities than Egypt and over six times more than South Africa.</li>
<li>The higher education sector loses local talent and fails to replace it. According to <a href="http://uis.unesco.org/en/uis-student-flow">UNESCO data</a>, over 60,000 of Nigeria’s brightest students – equivalent to 375 students for each of our 160 universities – choose to study abroad. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with this. The trouble in Nigeria’s case is that it fails to attract the equivalent in foreign students. It becomes a “brain drain” rather than the “brain exchange” it could be.</li>
</ul>

And yet, the education budget in Nigeria has seen <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/04/education-free-fall/">little or no change</a> over the last few years, and government funding of education remains low. In 2018, it was just over 7% of the national budget. This level of funding, as a percentage of the total budget, has remained stagnant since 2009 when it was 7.25%. 

A widely-used international indicator to measure the level of investment in research is the Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development. It’s measured as a percentage of the total economic activity in a country or Gross Domestic Product.

The <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/gb.xpd.rsdv.gd.zs">world average</a> is a healthy 1.77%. But African countries lag behind. In South Africa it is <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=ZA">0.76%</a> and in Egypt it’s <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=EG">0.4%</a>. 

Nigeria trails behind even its African equivalents at <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=NG">0.2%</a>.

<h2>How to fix the problem</h2>

Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy and most populous country. Why then, when it comes to university education, does it behave more like a backwater than the mainstream it should be? What can be done? 

We would argue that improving the outcomes of Nigeria’s universities requires investment, powered by a national strategic vision and matched with good governance.

The Nigerian University Commission has <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/238940-number-nigerian-universities-may-double-nuc-considers-200-new-private-university-applications.html">indicated</a> that it intends to increase university capacity by supporting the creation of new private universities. But indications show that the commission hasn’t focused on the level of scholarly output. Quantity is of limited use unless accompanied by quality.

Offering joint faculties or schools between foreign and local institutions would be another way of bringing investment into Nigerian universities. The foreign investment model has led to significant improvements in the quality of education in other countries, for example in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322222847_Education_and_Economic_Growth_A_Case_Study_in_Malaysia">Malaysia</a>. 

But turning to the international market for investment would require significant policy and governance changes within the Nigerian University Commission.

To improve university research activity, the proposed establishment of the National Research and Innovation Foundation as detailed in the <a href="http://workspace.unpan.org/sites/internet/Documents/UNPAN048879.pdf">Science, Technology and Innovation Policy of 2011</a>, is now urgently required. An established research and innovation foundation could have responsibility to fund research and development across all subject areas, and monitor its quality.

It’s vital that the strategic vision of the foundation is aligned with the economic objectives of the country. This will ensure the development of strong research in subjects critical to the economy.

Of course, decades of neglect will not be remedied in a year. There are competing demands for government funds, such as in areas from transport infrastructure to health. But there must be a strong political will to improve universities year on year, and make education a long-term priority.

Nigeria has just voted for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/26/muhammadu-buhari-to-claim-victory-in-nigerias-presidential-election">new government</a>. Let us hope the new government has a vision for Nigeria’s tertiary education – a vision that will give a youthful, vibrant Nigeria the universities it deserves.

Professor Val Ekechukwu, the Dean of Engineering at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, contributed to the research.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112717/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-mba-700207">David Mba</a>, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Dean of Computing, Engineering and Media, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/de-montfort-university-1254">De Montfort University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-universities-are-performing-poorly-what-can-be-done-about-it-112717">original article</a>.

Why are Nigeria’s universities performing poorly and what is the solution?

By Charlie Robertson, Global Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital.



South Africa’s GDP for 2018 was just released which shows it was Africa’s biggest economy in actual dollars (PPP dollars, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)">which show</a> Nigeria was the biggest in 2017 at $1.2 trillion , don’t buy you the imports you need to build an oil refinery – note that PPP dollars are NOT what puts Nigeria’s GDP at $397bn .. the $397bn figure is the exchange rate the IMF used which is different from the NAFEX rate of NGN362/$ we use).  



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Nigeria-what-now.png" alt="" class="wp-image-329831" width="678" height="325"/></figure>



This piece outlines the
2019-23 outlook for Nigeria – as it tries to regain the top spot. 



To get real per capita GDP
growth up to 4-6% (ie headline GDP growth of 7-9%) requires either 



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>A doubling of the oil price, or</li><li>Industrialisation </li></ol>



Without it, per capita
GDP growth may be around 0% which implies headline GDP rising at roughly 3%
annually 



To achieve
industrialisation, Nigeria needs to 



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Raise the adult literacy rate from 60%
 to 70-80% &#8211; which we think can happen from 2024 onwards.&nbsp; An adult
 literacy campaign could accelerate this – copying what the super poor,
 war-torn state of South Korea did in the 1950s. </li><li>Treble electricity consumption – which
 we assume requires at least a doubling of the electricity tariff.&nbsp;
 Buhari’s team has not forced through any of the annual increases due since
 2016. As a result, Nigeria has three times more installed generating
 capacity than actual distribution.&nbsp; We are too glib to suggest it is
 just about the electricity price – but a big hike will surely be part of
 the solution. &nbsp;</li><li>Double the investment rate from 13% of
 GDP to 26% of GDP – or triple it, to match what Ethiopia is doing.&nbsp; </li></ol>



To double the investment
rate we suggest that reforms may be needed like 



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Removing the implicit fuel subsidy which costs
 about 0.5% of GDP. It supports consumption and not investment. Morocco
 after 2012, Egypt since 2014 and even the Gulf countries are cutting fuel
 subsidies. &nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Encourage foreign direct investment, which in
 2018 fell to $2.2bn according to UNCTAD.&nbsp; Ghana got $3bn.&nbsp; To
 match Ghana (per capita), Nigeria should be getting $24bn a year.&nbsp; A
 change of approach to MTN, the oil majors and others may be required. </li><li>Boost domestic savings and bring down interest
 rates which will probably require a smaller budget deficit and higher
 taxes. </li><li>Allow the currency to trade closer to fair
 value which we estimate today at NGN440/$, NGN470 by year-end and NGN670
 by end-2023. &nbsp;Allowing faster currency depreciation does partly
 contradict point 3 on cutting interest rates. Note that in the immediate
 term, ahead of the CBN governor’s term expiring on 2 June, fixed income
 investors are probably assuming short-term currency stability, based
 on decent FX reserves figures (over $40bn), a current account in small
 surplus and high domestic interest rates. &nbsp;Our base case is that
 whoever the governor is, the currency will end-2019 at NGN395/$. We
 have no reason to believe that if there is a change of CBN governor, we
 will see an end to the multiple exchange rate regime. </li></ol>



The good news is that
President Buhari has <a href="https://africa.cgtn.com/2019/03/02/muhammadu-buhari-says-second-term-will-be-tough/">already declared</a> his second term will be
“tough” – so perhaps he will take his 4m vote victory margin to push through
difficult reforms. The cabinet should be in place soon after the new
presidential term starts on 29 May – unlike 2015 where it took six months.
There should be less of a learning curve than we saw in 2015-17. 



The precedent of 2015-19
tells us equity investors will not assume rapid, deep reforms. Even if
nationwide progress is hard to achieve, we may see localised success stories,
such as in Lagos – which has the biggest adult population of any state in
Nigeria, high adult literacy (over 80%) and is now planning to get 3GW of
electricity over the next few years (total nationwide distribution is around
4GW).&nbsp; 



Lastly – we cross-checked
population data against voting data because we doubted our initial estimates
that there were 22% more adult voters in Nasarawa state than adults.&nbsp; We
ended up agreeing with local and IMF estimates of the population being around
194m in 2018 and perhaps 199m in 2019. We even ended up agreeing with a recent
Economist article that the 200 millionth Nigerian may be born in 2019. We can
go into more detail on specific voting data for various states if you’re
interested in pursuing this. 



Our top three local debt
picks remain Argentina, Turkey and Egypt.&nbsp; Our equity strategist has
Nigeria on neutral.&nbsp; With some rapid reforms, a better value currency,
accelerating growth – Nigeria could become an overweight again.

Op-Ed: Nigeria – what now ?

ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari extended his early election lead on Tuesday based on official results from a third of the country’s districts as the death toll from sporadic election violence rose to 47. 



Provisional results announced in state capitals but not yet confirmed by the commission seen by Reuters showed Buhari on course to cementing a commanding lead over his main rival, businessman and former vice president Atiku Abubakar.



Atiku’s party has rejected the tallies thus far as “incorrect and unacceptable”. Buhari’s party said the opposition was trying to discredit the returns from Saturday’s vote.



The outcome is expected later this week. At stake is control of Africa’s top oil producer and biggest economy with a decade-old Islamist insurgency entrenched in the northeast and overlapping into neighbouring countries.



The winner is likely to be the man voters trust most to revamp an economy struggling to emerge from a 2016 recession. Analysts had predicted the vote to be Nigeria’s tightest since the end of military rule two decades ago.



A calm reaction to the election result could open a new chapter in the turbulent political history of Nigeria, where nearly six decades of independence have been marred by military coups, endemic corruption and secessionist movements.



But, Situation Room, a monitoring mission comprising over 70 civic groups, said on Tuesday the death toll from election-related violence since Saturday had risen to 47, and more than 260 in all since the start of the campaign in October.



Buhari, 76, is a former military ruler seeking a second term on a platform to reduce corruption. Atiku, 72, has pledged to expand the role of the private sector.



Initial results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission so far put Buhari in the lead, with victories in nine of Nigeria’s 36 states, the INEC said.



It said Atiku had prevailed in four states and the capital, Abuja, which is not a state but treated as a separate electoral district.



Buhari was leading Atiku by 56 percent to 41 percent, according to a Reuters tally based on available INEC figures.



In provisional results announced in state capitals but not yet confirmed by the electoral commission, Buhari had won seven states to Atiku’s three.



Seventy-three million people were eligible to vote in Africa’s biggest democratic election but the INEC has yet to release details of voter turnout.



Additional reporting by Paul Carsten; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram and James Macharia

Nigeria’s Buhari extends lead in election count as death toll from election violence rises

ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; As many as 39 people have been killed in election violence in Nigeria, civil society groups said on Sunday, as the country awaited the results of voting in what was forecast to be its tightest election since the end of military rule in 1999. 



The Situation Room &#8211; which represents more than 70 civil society groups &#8211; gave the death toll the day after voting, citing data from Lagos-based consultancy SBM Intelligence. But authorities were braced for the possibility of further unrest after election results emerge later this week.



President Muhammadu Buhari, 76, a former military ruler who is seeking a second term on an anti-corruption platform, faces Atiku Abubakar, 72, a businessman and former vice president who has promised to expand the role of the private sector.



Deputy Inspector General of Police Abdulmajid Ali said police were still gathering information and could not provide figures on casualties. He said violence was greatest in the southern states of Rivers and Akwa Ibom.



The Nigeria Police Force said 128 people had been arrested nationwide for election-related offences including homicide, theft of ballot boxes and vote fraud. Thirty-eight weapons and a cache of explosives were also recovered.



The Situation Room said the worst incident was in Abonnema in Rivers State, around 14 km (9 miles) west of the main oil industry city of Port Harcourt, where the army said seven people died in a shoot-out between an unidentified gang and Nigerian soldiers.



A lieutenant and six gunmen died in the firefight, which broke out when the attackers barricaded a major road into the town and ambushed the troops, the acting director of army public relations, Colonel Sagir Musa, said. Their motives were not known.



Nigerian security forces are stretched by an Islamist insurgency in the northeast along with communal violence and banditry in other areas. Previous elections have been marred by violence among supporters of different political parties that at times sparked sectarian clashes.



A credible and relatively calm poll would open a new chapter in the chequered political history of Nigeria, where nearly six decades of independence have been tarnished by military coups, endemic corruption and secessionist movements.



The number of deaths reported Sunday was below the final tolls in previous elections in Africa’s most populous country. However, most unrest typically occurs after results are announced.



Results are expected to start trickling in early on Monday with a “substantial number” likely on Tuesday, election commission official Festus Okoye said.



As many as 100 people were killed during and after the last election in 2015, according to the International Crisis Group.



Four years before that, in the religiously mixed northern city of Kaduna, 800 people died when fighting erupted between Muslims and the mainly Christian backers of then-President Goodluck Jonathan.



Islamist militants in the Northeast vowed to disrupt this year’s election. Hours before polls opened, explosions rang out in Maiduguri, capital of Borno state at the epicentre of the decade-long insurgency. In neighbouring Yobe state, residents of Geidam town fled an attack around the same time.



The election was postponed the previous Saturday just hours before it was due to begin, with the authorities citing problems in delivering ballot papers and results sheets in some parts of the country.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">VOTING EXTENDED IN A FEW PLACES</h3>



Despite the violence, some noted that it could have been worse.



“We didn’t expect that the election would be so smooth &#8230; we thought people might be dying,” said Henry Okalome, 55, a trader in Kano who voted for Atiku.



Violence and problems with electronic voting machines meant voting took place in a small number of places on Sunday.



Seventy-three million eligible voters chose from a pool of more than 70 presidential candidates, although only those from the two main parties &#8211; Buhari and Atiku &#8211; are seen as having a chance.



The contest between the two men hinges on revamping an economy struggling to recover from its first recession in 25 years, which it slipped into in 2016 and emerged from in 2017.



Nearly a quarter of the workforce is unemployed, while the cost of living has also risen rapidly.



Buhari has focused his campaign on rooting out corruption, but critics say there have not been any significant convictions in his first term. Atiku has said he would aim to double the size of the economy to $900 billion by 2025.



Additional reporting by Nneka Chile, Aaron Ross, Camillus Eboh and Felix OnuahWriting by James Macharia and Alexis AkwagyiramEditing by Peter Graff and Cynthia Osterman

Dozens killed in election violence in Nigeria

Nigerians finally head to the polls for the keenly contested presidential and national assembly elections. 



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Dear Nigerians, The slogan for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides</a> is “We must vote” It’s your right!<a href="https://t.co/mCXK2esWI3">pic.twitter.com/mCXK2esWI3</a>&mdash; Uchenna (@Demoore90210) <a href="https://twitter.com/Demoore90210/status/1099294928956465152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Election coverage kit loaded! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/cnbcafrica?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cnbcafrica</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Christycolep?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Christycolep</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/KennethIgbomor?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KennethIgbomor</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Estheroawoniyi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Estheroawoniyi</a> <a href="https://t.co/qHsuN8XRO5">pic.twitter.com/qHsuN8XRO5</a>&mdash; Wole Famurewa (@WoleFamurewa) <a href="https://twitter.com/WoleFamurewa/status/1099187036366557184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Yass!!! This woman is not here for the foolishness! All business baby!! ??<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/mood?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#mood</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/voting?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#voting</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecide2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecide2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ElectionisNotWar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ElectionisNotWar</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Election2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Election2019</a> photo Crd:<a href="https://twitter.com/FarabaleAfrica?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FarabaleAfrica</a> <a href="https://t.co/Y35EhQo9Cy">pic.twitter.com/Y35EhQo9Cy</a>&mdash; Uchenna.U (@mildyche) <a href="https://twitter.com/mildyche/status/1099334281984380929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Electoral material arriving unit 22 on Water cooperation drive, Oniru, Lagos at 8:57 am. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides410?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides410</a> <a href="https://t.co/sQbFsNDODZ">pic.twitter.com/sQbFsNDODZ</a>&mdash; Wole Famurewa (@WoleFamurewa) <a href="https://twitter.com/WoleFamurewa/status/1099226591132110848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">&quot;It is empty&quot;. Electoral officers showing ballot boxes before voting. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides410?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides410</a> <a href="https://t.co/PSa3VyVyRX">pic.twitter.com/PSa3VyVyRX</a>&mdash; Wole Famurewa (@WoleFamurewa) <a href="https://twitter.com/WoleFamurewa/status/1099227020335243264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">The ballot boxes. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides410?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides410</a> <a href="https://t.co/TE6vIMv355">pic.twitter.com/TE6vIMv355</a>&mdash; Wole Famurewa (@WoleFamurewa) <a href="https://twitter.com/WoleFamurewa/status/1099227570443292674?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">So this essentially happened in most places in Lagos where majorly Igbos live. Nigeria will always find a way to break your heart ? ??? <a href="https://t.co/2XaN7tPQqw">pic.twitter.com/2XaN7tPQqw</a>&mdash; Sparklezzzzz (@Sparklezzzzz1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sparklezzzzz1/status/1099320403942694912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/inecnigeria?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@inecnigeria</a> This happened at Isolo Lagos, votes were set on fire<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ElectionNotWar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ElectionNotWar</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides</a> <a href="https://t.co/rZ6Z01Ifzk">pic.twitter.com/rZ6Z01Ifzk</a>&mdash; WINNERMAN WILLZ (@Lightss_Up) <a href="https://twitter.com/Lightss_Up/status/1099292431349092352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">This is happening in Okota. <a href="https://twitter.com/inecnigeria?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@inecnigeria</a> what happens to their vote?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ElectionNotWar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ElectionNotWar</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides</a> <a href="https://t.co/rQrvoPh9dV">pic.twitter.com/rQrvoPh9dV</a>&mdash; ??? (@miss_ooma) <a href="https://twitter.com/miss_ooma/status/1099303230054547457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides410?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides410</a>: Voters at Asokoro 111, ECOWAS secretariat (Garki) all smiles and ready to cast their votes. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/2019Elections?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#2019Elections</a> <a href="https://t.co/ev6YIuzpNZ">pic.twitter.com/ev6YIuzpNZ</a>&mdash; CNBC Africa (@cnbcafrica) <a href="https://twitter.com/cnbcafrica/status/1099254118684807168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Did you know that there are 84.2 million people have registered to vote in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Nigeria?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Nigeria</a>&#39;s 2019 presidential elections? The youth represents 51.1% of the registered voters. Source: INEC <a href="https://twitter.com/inecnigeria?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@inecnigeria</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CNBCAfrica?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CNBCAfrica</a> <a href="https://t.co/JGp7Cm25bC">pic.twitter.com/JGp7Cm25bC</a>&mdash; CNBC Africa (@cnbcafrica) <a href="https://twitter.com/cnbcafrica/status/1099256647166410752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Who gets the Nigerian vote? Follow it all vote by vote live on ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/cnbcafrica?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cnbcafrica</a>⁩ at 4 pm CAT <a href="https://t.co/aCDrF9mw49">pic.twitter.com/aCDrF9mw49</a>&mdash; Chris Bishop (@ChrisBishopZA) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisBishopZA/status/1099281223615164417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides410?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides410</a>: Counting and sorting ongoing at polling unit 028 Maitama, Abuja and polling unit 037 Victoria Island, Lagos respectively. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NigeriaDecides2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NigeriaDecides2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/2019Elections?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#2019Elections</a> <a href="https://t.co/340LeLKsu4">pic.twitter.com/340LeLKsu4</a>&mdash; CNBC Africa (@cnbcafrica) <a href="https://twitter.com/cnbcafrica/status/1099309912000266240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/electionday?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#electionday</a> came and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ivoted?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ivoted</a>. Proudly!! <a href="https://t.co/vGOTsZXwVx">pic.twitter.com/vGOTsZXwVx</a>&mdash; Asaba Boy (@_aideology) <a href="https://twitter.com/_aideology/status/1099327828322123777?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">Voting done and dusted, my polling Unit was generally peaceful, though we had to stay in the sun for over two hours, it was a time well spent chatting with neighbors, especially my <a href="https://twitter.com/elevationng?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@elevationng</a> connect group members who turned out to cast their votes. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/election2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#election2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ivoted?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ivoted</a> <a href="https://t.co/MaYoBFvxWw">pic.twitter.com/MaYoBFvxWw</a>&mdash; Godman Akinlabi (@PGeeman) <a href="https://twitter.com/PGeeman/status/1099306682176454656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[IN TWEETS] Nigerians head to the polls

YOLA, Nigeria/ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; Nigerian teacher Benjamin Shagu flew 500 km (310 miles) from the east of the country to the capital, Abuja, to vote in the presidential election &#8211; only for the vote to be delayed for a week, just five hours before polls had been due to open. 



“I have left my students for a week. I can’t leave them for another week,” said the English teacher &#8211; who travelled from the eastern city of Yola &#8211; weighing up the expense and disruption in returning to the city in which he registered to vote.



Many of the country’s 72.8 million eligible voters, having spent considerable sums of money on travel, face the same dilemma.



The delay to the election, now scheduled for Saturday, could depress turnout, according to politicians and civil society groups. That in turn would reduce the mandate of the eventual winner to rule Africa’s most populous country and its biggest economy.



The two main candidates &#8211; President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar &#8211; are also both over 70 years old and have failed to generate significant excitement from a relatively youthful population.



“It disadvantages us because we need the turnout. Our base is the youth population, and they’re the ones who can just easily get turned off from the whole process,” Bukola Saraki, director general of Atiku’s campaign, told Reuters in an interview.



“The momentum was on our side,” he said.



Idayat Hassan, director of the Abuja-based think tank Centre for Democracy and Development, also said the delay would likely benefit Buhari.



His supporters had been galvanised in the last two elections with a high turnout in his core base in the northwest, she said, the region with the highest number of registered voters.



The main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) typically attracts more support in the southeast, a region where turnout has historically been low, she said.



Yusuf Tuggar, a campaign team member of the ruling All Progressives Congress, said his party would be hit harder because many of its northern supporters live in the south and could not afford to travel home.



“It hurts us more because we have more supporters,” he said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">VOTER TURNOUT DECLINE</h3>



Turnout in presidential elections has declined steadily since 2003 from nearly 70 percent to just 44 percent in 2015.



That is largely because of growing disenchantment with a political class seen as corrupt and out of touch with a population that includes a high proportion of people living in extreme poverty.



Hassan said that, irrespective of the outcome, lower voter numbers would be dangerous for the winner.



“Sooner or later many people will question the legitimacy of elected representatives, especially when they have not participated in the process,” said Hassan.



Such concerns have led to the announcement of measures aimed at boosting turnout.



The interior ministry said Friday would be a public holiday, to give people time to travel to the polls, while fuel suppliers cut the price of petrol and a trade union that operates bus routes nationwide agreed to provide discounts for trips to voting points.



The hope was that people would overcome the difficulties involved in making a second trek to the polls.



“I need to travel to perform my citizenship of Nigeria,” said student Francisca Esidoy as she boarded a bus in the northern city of Kano, where she lives, to make the 970 kilometre (600 miles) journey to her southeastern home state of Abia.



But others could not be enticed.



Brauna Afraimu, 41, a civil servant based in Yola, said he was too disillusioned to make the 440 kilometre journey to nearby Bauchi state. “All these things will not motivate me to go and vote. I’ve already spent a lot of my resources and time last week,” he said.



Additional reporting by Aaron Ross and Alexis Akwagyiram in Abuja, Percy Dabang in Yola, Kazeem Sanni in Kano; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram; Editing by James Macharia and Hugh Lawson

Nigerian vote tough to call, here’s why

YENAGOA, Nigeria (Reuters) &#8211; A number of people were killed in a stampede at a rally in support of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, local officials from his party said on Tuesday, days ahead of an election in which he is seeking a second term.



The incident happened at an event in the southern city of Port Harcourt, which is in the country’s Niger Delta oil-production heartland.



Voters in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest democracy, will go to the polls on Saturday. Buhari’s main challenger in the race to govern the continent’s top oil-producing nation is Atiku Abubakar, a businessman and former vice president.



In a statement, Judith Amaechi, who runs the women and youth team in support of Buhari in the region for his All Progressives Congress (APC) party, expressed “deep shock over the death of APC members who were in a stampede”.



The statement, which did not specify the number of people killed, said it occurred after the rally.



Accidents sometimes occur at political rallies in Nigeria, which are often crowded. Last week, Buhari offered his condolences after supporters were killed in a stampede at a rally in the eastern state of Taraba.



Reporting by Tife Owolabi; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram; Editing by Peter Cooney

Several killed at Buhari rally stampede days before Nigeria’s presidential elections

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s gross domestic product grew 2.38 percent in the last quarter of 2018 compared with 2.11 percent in the same quarter a year before, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. 



Nigeria’s economy emerged from recession in 2017 and has been recovering largely because of higher oil prices, though growth remains fragile. Gross domestic product grew by 1.93 percent overall in 2018, more than the 0.82 percent in 2017, the statistics office said.



A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast median growth of 2.1 percent for the Nigerian economy, saying growth was expected to slow as investors hold off before 2019 elections.



Nigerians vote on Saturday for a new president. Incumbent Muhammadu Buhari is hoping his record on corruption, security and boosting the economy can secure him a second four-year term in office.



The government had projected 2 percent growth for 2018. The World Bank has said Nigeria’s economy will grow slightly less than 2 percent this year as the approach of elections keeps foreign investors away.



Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha; editing by Larry King

Nigeria’s GDP grew 2.38 percent in Q4 of 2018, what you need to know

By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ini-dele-adedeji-683312">Ini Dele-Adedeji</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/soas-university-of-london-975">SOAS, University of London</a>


Nigeria is preparing for its general election. But will it be credible? Nigerian voters are well aware that the elections will not be won solely by votes or popular consensus. There are several other variables that influence election results. 

These include the incumbent’s control of state security apparatuses, grassroots structures, and control of institutions such as market traders associations, and the National Union for Road Transport Workers. 

The road transport workers’ union, which acts as a canopy for bus drivers, conductors, and motor park touts in Southwestern Nigeria, has a history of <a href="https://punchng.com/2019-transport-union-warns-members-in-lagos/">providing foot soldiers for employment as election thugs</a> with skills in ballot box snatching and voter intimidation tactics. 

In addition, the possibility that the election could be rigged cannot be ignored. 

Questions around the credibility of elections in post-independence Nigeria can be traced as far back as the “<a href="http://countrystudies.us/nigeria/68.htm">First Republic</a>” which lasted from 1960 &#8211; 1966. After allegations of massive rigging in the 1965 elections the country’s western region was engulfed in the infamous “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02589001.2010.512737">Operation Wet-ie</a>” riots. 

The riots pitted rival political groups against each other leading to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35312370">Nigeria’s first military coup</a> in 1966. From then on the country experienced a series of coups. Between 1966 and 1999, when the country made a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/nigeria-ends-15-years-of-military-rule-1077682.html">decisive break with military politics</a>, Nigeria experienced <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/83449.stm">eight military coups</a>. In that same time period three general elections were conducted. 

<h2>Tumultuous past</h2>

The years outside of military rule were comparatively brief and arguably overshadowed by the spectre of the military. When elections did happen they were plagued by <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/nigeria/2007-07-01/nigerias-rigged-democracy">strong allegations of electoral fraud</a>. Since 1999, when the country broke with military rule, five elections have been conducted all of which have been tainted by controversy.

It’s clear to see that Nigeria has survived a tumultuous political history. Going into this next election, questions still remain about the credibility of the country’s electoral system, and the viability of it’s governance structures. Looking back things have often gone wrong, but are there instances where things have worked out well for the electorate?

I would argue that there have at least two instances when voters got what they asked for. One is the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/24/world/nigerian-military-rulers-annul-election.html">June 1993 presidential election</a>, which is considered to have been relatively free and fair in its conduct, its eventual annulment notwithstanding. Another is the presidential election of May 2015 when the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/31/world/nigeria-election/index.html">gracefully accepted defeat</a> by conceding to President Muhammadu Buhari.

Yet I still feel that Nigeria’s electoral system needs a complete overhaul if it’s to perform its functions with as little external interference as possible.

<h2>Shadow of military rule</h2>

The country has been ruled by military administrators more than it has by democratically elected leaders. For 29 years of Nigeria’s independent history military dictators have had a grip on its leadership. This is compared to just 20 years of democracy. The result has been that electoral rigging and malpractice are rife within Nigeria’s electoral process. 

Since 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari, both of whom were previously military dictators spent a combined 12 years in power. President Buhari is now seeking a second term. As a result, there are still those who argue that the country’s transition from military rule to democracy is <a href="https://punchng.com/nigeria-still-under-shadows-of-military/">not quite complete</a>.

The executive arm, for example, still maintains certain authoritarian characteristics that are reminiscent of the military era. One of these is the use of the armed forces to manipulate election processes. For instance, during the recent gubernatorial elections in Ekiti and Osun states <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/268-nigerias-2019-elections-six-states-watch">voter intimidation by the security forces</a> was rife. This was done to scare away opposition voters and give the ruling All Progressives Congress an edge. 

<h2>The electoral commission</h2>

Another factor to consider is the supposed independence and impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission which is in charge of running the elections. Critics point to the fact that the commission chairperson and others in the commission are <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201003230023.html">nominated by the president</a>. This calls into question <a href="https://punchng.com/should-president-retain-power-to-appoint-inec-chairman/">the credibility</a> of the entire electoral commission. 

Further, Buhari has just <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/inec-picks-amina-zakari-as-head-collation-centre-for-elections">appointed Amina Zakari</a> as the new collation officer. Zakari will oversee the committee responsible for the national collation centre from where results of the presidential election will be announced. But Zakari has <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/01/inec-who-is-this-amina-zakari/">been alleged to have a family relationship with the president</a>. This has raised suspicion within opposition circles that the government intends to rig the polls. 

To make matters worse, the behaviour of the electoral commission in previous elections hasn’t always been above reproach. This has lent credence to the criticisms bout the body’s impartiality. In the run up to the 2007 general for example, the Supreme Court ruled that the commission had <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/200704170002.html">no power to disqualify candidates in the eleventh hour</a> as it had purported to do in the case of opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. 

The opaque nature in which recent gubernatorial elections have been held has also added to the fears of a rigged presidential poll. The September 2018 gubernatorial election in Osun, for example, was panned by election observers as being <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/286920-just-in-osunrerun-us-eu-uk-observers-speak-on-governorship-election-rerun.html">riddled with voting irregularities</a> like voter harassment, and interference by “inappropriate persons”. These irregularities were reinforced by the high number of <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2018/09/26/osun-election-tension-military-replaces-police-rerun/">security officers deployed</a> to the state during the election period. 

The involvement of the security apparatus in tilting this tightly contested election in favour of the ruling All Progressives Congress is considered to be an indicator of how things could pan out in the general election. 

<h2>Role of outsiders</h2>

Observers like the European Union and the US also exert a measure of influence on Nigerian elections. By <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/306152-elections-u-s-expresses-concerns-over-neutrality-of-nigerias-security-services.html">ramping up the rhetoric</a> on the importance of free and fair elections they play into the hands of the opposition who have historically appealed to foreign powers to umpire the electoral process. 

Incumbent governments, on the other hand, have typically been on the other side of the argument. Nigerian governments have often cited what they call the “neo-imperialism” of countries like the UK and the US and decried their interference in Nigeria’s sovereignty. This resistance to foreign interference was most recently evidenced in comments made by Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/02/youll-leave-nigeria-in-body-bags-if-el-rufai-tells-foreign-powers/">threatened foreign observers with death</a> if they engaged with local politicians.

Former president Goodluck Jonathan also trotted out the “foreign interference” trope when he claimed in his <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201812120663.html">recently published memoir</a> that the US played a hand in ensuring that he lost the 2015 election. 

And a few weeks ago the ruling All Progressives Congress joined the bandwagon when they <a href="https://punchng.com/%E2%80%8Ecjn-nigeria-no-longer-a-colony-oshiomhole-replies-uk-us-eu/">issued a statement</a> telling the EU to not undermine Nigeria’s sovereignty.

<h2>Not all grim</h2>

Despite all of the above, it’s not all grim. There are some positive precedents that can be built on. 

For example, despite predictions that there would election violence during the 2015 poll, Jonathan did the honourable thing by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_4EcfSHUDQ">conceding defeat</a> to Buhari. 

His concession reinforced the notion that elections need not be a “do or die” affair. This peaceful transition after just one presidential term in office also set a positive trend for elections across Africa. 

But with the slim margin between the incumbent, Buhari, and his main contender Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party – this narrative might need to be reinforced when Nigeria goes to the polls again on February 16.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111093/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ini-dele-adedeji-683312">Ini Dele-Adedeji</a>, Teaching Fellow, Politics &#038; Development Studies, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/soas-university-of-london-975">SOAS, University of London</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-has-a-history-of-dodgy-elections-will-it-be-different-this-time-111093">original article</a>.

Nigeria prepares for elections, is the country’s electoral system credible ?

The Forbes Billionaires List: Africa’s Billionaires 2019

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Shares in South African telecoms giant MTN jumped 8 percent on Thursday after it settled a row with Nigeria’s central bank for a fraction of the $8.1 billion it had threatened to cost.



MTN announced on Monday that it would pay just $52.6 million to end the dispute in Nigeria, its biggest and most lucrative market, but also its most troublesome.



The case had dogged MTN, Africa’s biggest telecoms company, for four months, dragging its share price down 20 percent to hover around its lowest level since 2009 while also sparking pessimism around the ease of doing business in Nigeria.



It centred on allegations that dividends paid by the firm between 2007 and 2015 were based on improperly issued certificates.



The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had initially ordered MTN and its lenders to bring back $8.1 billion it alleged the company had illegally repatriated to South Africa during that time.



But after MTN provided additional documents, the central bank concluded only one 2008 private placement, worth around $1 billion, was irregular. MTN agreed to pay $52.6 million as a “notional reversal” of this transaction.



“MTN Nigeria will pay the notional reversal amount without admission of liability,” it said in a statement on Monday, announcing the settlement.



The central bank’s initial order threatened to wipe out more than half of MTN’s market capitalisation at the time it was issued in August, and spooked investors just as the company was trying to reassure them of its frontier market-focused strategy after a series of costly legal problems.



MTN shares were up 4.34 percent to 89.21 rand at 1055 GMT on Thursday, after rising more than 8 percent to highs of 93 rand in the first trading session since the settlement was announced.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">DIFFICULT MARKET</h3>



MTN is Nigeria’s biggest operator, with 52.3 million users in 2017, and the country accounts for one third of the firm’s annual core profits. But it has also proven problematic.



While the settlement marks a turning point in MTN’s fortunes in the country, the telecoms heavyweight still has to fight a $2 billion tax bill from Nigeria’s attorney general.



It also comes two years after the firm paid $1 billion for missing the deadline to cut off unregistered SIM cards &#8211; a fine that prompted its first ever annual loss.



MTN was also previously accused of illegally repatriating $14 billion to its parent company, but was cleared of the allegations.



The latest dispute cemented concerns about firms’ ability to effectively operate in Nigeria, where a sluggish economy, strained public finances and upcoming elections have also left some questioning the motives behind such cases.



“Why did it take the CBN several years to ‘discover’ this and confront MTN?” said Dobek Pater, a director at consultancy Africa Analysis, adding this at least suggests negligence or a lack of competence at the central bank.



“Sometimes the government (government organisations’) interpretation of the law/regulations can be speculative to suit their ends,” he told Reuters via email.



Reporting by Emma Rumney; Editing by Louise Heavens and Adrian Croft

MTN shares jump 8 percent as dispute with Nigeria ends, how much does the telecoms group have to pay?

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa’s MTN Group has resolved a dispute with Nigeria’s central bank and made a $53 million payment, the telecoms company said in a message posted on Twitter on Monday.



Nigeria’s central bank had said $8.1 billion in dividends paid by MTN Nigeria to its parent company between 2007 and 2015 and sent back to South Africa were illegal and should be returned.



While the west African country’s regulator had accused MTN of illegally transferring the funds out of the country, MTN denied any wrongdoing.



“MTN resolves Nigeria dividend issue, makes $53m payment, engaging with banks regarding the agreement,” it said on Twitter.



Nigeria is MTN’s biggest market, accounting for a third of its annual core profit, but has proved problematic in recent years.



Around two years ago MTN agreed to pay more than $1 billion to settle a dispute over SIM cards in Nigeria.



In a separate case, MTN faces a $2 billion tax demand from Nigeria’s attorney general.



Reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram; editing by Jason Neely

MTN and Nigeria resolve dispute, here’s what you need to know

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Plans to build another privately-financed power station in Nigeria to help end decades of chronic blackouts have been delayed because of concerns about persistent shortfalls in payments for electricity across the sector.



The $1.1 billion Qua Iboe Power Plant being developed by energy infrastructure company Black Rhino and the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation won’t get a green light by the end of 2018 as planned and it was unclear when the deal might close, NNPC told Reuters.



The delay is a setback for Africa’s biggest oil producer where 80 million people don’t have access to grid power supplies and it exposes the difficulties in attracting private investment to a sector that successive governments have tried to reform.



The uncertainty surrounding the 540-megawatt Qua Iboe plant stems from the difficulties Nigeria’s first privately-financed independent power project &#8211; the 460-megawatt Azura-Edo plant &#8211; has encountered since it came online this year.



Azura was meant to be a model for a string of independent power plants financed by international investors. To give them confidence to invest in the first major plant since the power sector was privatised in 2013, the World Bank provided a safeguard known as a partial risk guarantee &#8211; meaning the lender would step in if Nigeria defaulted on payments.



Under the current system, the government-owned Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading company (NBET) buys power from generators and passes it on to distributors who then collect money from customers and reimburse NBET.



But because NBET is not paid in full for the power it buys, generators such as Azura have been partly reimbursed from an emergency central bank loan fund created to keep the sector afloat.



NNPC told Reuters one of the reasons the Qua Iboe plant (QIPP), which is due to be built in the southern state of Akwa Ibom, had been delayed was because NBET appeared reluctant to commit to new projects to avoid increasing its liabilities.



“The continued delay relates to the current cashflow challenges at NBET, as highlighted by the Azura project,” a spokesman for NNPC said in an emailed statement. “This concern is justified by the fact that NBET is yet to see an improvement in collections from DISCOs (distribution companies).”



NBET did not immediately respond to a request for comment on NNPC’s statement about QIPP.



NBET chief executive Marilyn Amobi told Reuters in November that it was hard for the company to work because of poor infrastructure and shortfalls in cash from distributors needed to reimburse generators.



“You don’t have the infrastructure, you don’t have the financial position to do it, you don’t actually have the products, and you don’t have the grid,” she said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">WORLD BANK CONDITIONS</h3>



NNPC said another problem for QIPP was that the World Bank had made a partial risk guarantee, similar to the one that helped Azura attract investors, contingent on the government’s implementation of an agreed power sector recovery plan.



“In theory it is okay, but the risk is there are delays in the approvals which may impact QIPP,” NNPC said.



Power ministry officials and the World Bank have been in talks about long-term structural changes needed to trigger the release of a $1 billion loan to help pay for reforms.



A World Bank spokeswoman said the loan had yet to be submitted to its board for approval and that the Washington-based lender considered the recovery plan to be “critical for de-risking the sector for private investments”.



Problems that need to be tackled include decaying infrastructure, mounting debts, low tariffs for electricity and a dilapidated government-owned grid that would collapse if all the country’s power generators operated at full tilt.



Even though NBET has an agreement to buy 13 gigawatts (GW) from power generators, the system can only cope with distributors sending out an average of 4 GW, according to the ministry of power.



The World Bank spokeswoman confirmed any future guarantees for independent power plants (IPPs) would be linked to the plan’s implementation &#8211; because the economic and financial viability of generation capacity expansion was at risk.



A spokeswoman for Black Rhino, which is one of private equity firm Blackstone’s portfolio companies, declined to comment on NNPC’s announcement of a delay to QIPP.



When the project was unveiled, Nigerian cement giant Dangote Group was named as a joint venture partner &#8211; along with Black Rhino and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.



But a Dangote executive told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the company, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, had pulled out.



“The huge debt level, and, the fact the IPPs are not making profits, is another reason for prospective investors to be deterred,” he said. “Further, collecting revenue from the distribution companies is also becoming a mirage.”



A Dangote Group spokesman declined to comment on the delay to QIPP, or whether the company had pulled out.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">‘ILLIQUID AND INSOLVENT’</h3>



The payment problems in the Nigerian power sector were thrust into the spotlight in March when four generating companies filed a lawsuit against the government and Azura.



To ensure the generating companies were paid in full throughout 2017 and 2018, the government created a 701 billion naira ($2.3 billion) loan fund at the central bank to guarantee payments. When the fund was established in 2017, Azura wasn’t part of the calculations.



But when Azura started producing electricity, the fund was also used to pay the new plant to ensure the terms of loan deals guaranteed by the World Bank were not breached. As a result, the other companies were told they would only receive 80 percent of the sums owed, according to the lawsuit filed in March.



The four energy companies want the fund to reimburse them in full, rather than allocating part of the money to the new plant.



Azura declined to comment on payments for power generated.



“If the central bank wasn’t paying, the system would collapse,” an official at a multilateral lender said on condition of anonymity. “Qua Iboe IPP would enter a system that is illiquid and insolvent. The liquidity is being provided by the central bank.”



The official said QIPP would need the same partial risk guarantee Azura received to get off the ground, but the handling of payments to Azura by the Nigerian authorities so far meant there was little appetite to offer the same support.



Fola Fagbule, senior vice president and head of advisory at Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) &#8211; one of the multilateral lenders that invested in Azura &#8211; agreed that the Qua Iboe project would struggle without payment guarantees.



“What you have is an insolvent system,” he said. “It is really difficult to make a case for a project on that scale.”



A person with direct knowledge of QIPP who declined to be named said Azura’s experience was damaging international investors’ view of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation.



“There has to be some understanding of how the sector is going to be able to afford new electrons coming into the grid,” the person said. “(Those involved) do not want QIPP to build a project that could just end up in a default situation.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">‘KNOTTY ISSUES’</h3>



Nigeria’s privatised power sector typically does not use meters to provide invoices, bill collections are low and energy tariffs have remained fixed for three years, meaning customers receive unsustainably cheap electricity.



The effect, say industry experts, is that electricity distribution companies recover so little revenue from customers that they pay less than a third of what they owe to generating companies &#8211; and that’s why debts have ballooned.



Sunday Oduntan, spokesman for the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, said debt levels in the sector were caused by the artificial suppression of tariffs. He said there was a 1.3 trillion naira ($4.2 billion) market shortfall that meant distributors were unable to invest in improvements.



“You cannot be selling a product below cost price and expect high remittance. The shortfall in the sector is because of the lack of a cost-reflective tariff,” said Oduntan, who speaks on behalf of Nigeria’s 11 electricity distribution companies.



Debts across the sector partly stem from a currency crisis that took hold in 2016, just months after Azura secured its financing. The bulk of power company costs are in U.S. dollars but customers pay for power in naira.



The naira lost about 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in June 2016 but the devaluation was not factored into a government tariff structure that has remained unchanged.



Louis Edozien, permanent secretary in the ministry of power, told Reuters there was evidence tariffs must rise, but it was also the responsibility of distributors to improve their collections, partly through better metering and infrastructure.



As for the future of QIPP, the state oil company said it would take six to eight months from whenever NBET executes an agreement to purchase power from the plant before a final investment decision could be taken.



The NNPC spokesman said there were a number of other “knotty issues”, including the completion of a transmission line from the project site. He said QIPP had now agreed in a major concession to pay $20 million for it to be finished.



He also said there was a disagreement between QIPP and the central bank about the exchange rate at which power producers could buy U.S. dollars with naira. He said this had been escalated to the minister of finance.



With the $1 billion World Bank power sector loan on hold for now, the government is considering putting another 600 billion naira into the central bank fund to pay generators when the initial amount runs out early next year, sources said.



It was not clear how the central bank loans to the sector would be repaid.



Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele told Reuters that payments from the fund could be made up to February and that the bank was holding talks with World Bank officials.



“The loan negotiations are still in progress with no terminal date yet fixed,” the power ministry’s Edozien said.



($1 = 306.6000 naira)



Reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram and Paul Carsten; additional reporting by Camillus Eboh in Abuja, Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos and Karin Strohecker in London; editing by David Clarke

Here’s what is delaying Nigeria’s next power plant

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s unemployment rate stood at 23.1 percent of the work force in the third quarter, up from 18.1 percent a year earlier, the head of the statistics office Yemi Kale said on his official Twitter feed on Wednesday.



The economy is a major theme of debate in the lead-up to elections in 2019. President Muhammadu Buhari came to power in 2015 campaigning to fix the economy, but his term has been marred by the country’s first recession in a quarter of a century and a sluggish recovery since 2017.



“As of Q3 2018, the calculated unemployment rate was 23.1 percent, the underemployment rate was 20.1 percent, and the combined unemployment and underemployment rate was 43.3 percent,” the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in its report published on Wednesday.



“While the Q3, 2018 results show a rise in the rate of unemployment, it also depicts a slowing down in the rate of increase in unemployment, which is usually the first sign of improvement in reducing unemployment,” it said.



Atiku Abubakar, the main opposition candidate in the coming election, has vowed to get one of Africa’s largest economies back on track and secure jobs for the work force in a country of roughly 190 million people, saying that if elected he would aim to double the size of the economy to $900 billion by 2025.



The NBS last released employment data a year ago when it said unemployment stood at 18.8 percent in Q3 2017 but Kale said on Twitter on Wednesday that it had stood at 18.1 percent then.



Earlier this year he also said on Twitter that the stats office did not have sufficient funds to compile employment data.



Additional reporting by Paul Carsten in Abuja; Editing by Hugh Lawson

Nigeria’s unemployment rate rises to 23.1 percent in Q3

ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari presented a 8.83 trillion naira ($28.80 billion) budget for 2019 to parliament on Wednesday, and laid out a plan to drive growth two months before elections.



The spending plan for Africa’s top oil producer assumes crude production of 2.3 million barrels a day, an oil price of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of 305 naira to the dollar.



Buhari’s handling of the economy &#8211; which emerged from its first recession in 25 years this year but remains sluggish &#8211; has become a campaign issue.



The main opposition candidate, businessman and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, has criticised Buhari’s economic policies and has promised to double the size of the economy to $900 billion by 2025 if elected.



The budget is the fourth Buhari has present to parliament since taking office in 2015 but, unlike the others, did not set record high levels of spending as the government seeks to lower debt. He also received a rowdier reception than in the past, with his statements greeted by boos and cheers.



The spending plan is smaller than the record 9.12 trillion-naira budget for 2018 that he signed into law in June. The budget must still be approved by parliament before it can be signed into law, a process that can take many months.



Nigeria’s economy grew by 1.81 percent in the third quarter of this year, the statistics office said last week. And, in a separate data release days later, it said the inflation rate rose slightly in November to 11.28 percent compared with a year ago.



($1 = 306.6000 naira)



Additional reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram in Lagos; Editing by Andrew Heavens

Nigeria’s Buhari presents $28.8 billion budget for 2019, will it revive the country’s economy?

LAGOS (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s Access Bank has agreed to takeover mid-tier rival Diamond Bank, the lenders said on Monday, in a deal both said would create Africa’s largest bank by customers.



Nigerian banks have been trying to raise fresh capital after huge loan losses worsened by an economy that is recovering from its first recession in 25 years.



U.S. private equity firm Carlyle owns a 17.75 percent stake in Diamond Bank which it bought for $147 million in 2014 when the bank was trading at 0.6 times book value as against 0.15 times now.



“The board of Access Bank PLC today announces it has signed a memorandum of agreement with Diamond Bank PLC regarding a potential merger of the two banks that will create Nigeria and Africa’s biggest bank by customers,” Access Bank said in a statement to the Nigerian stock exchange.



As part of the deal, Diamond Bank said its shareholders would receive 3.13 naira per share, comprising of 1.00 naira per share in cash and the allotment of 2 New Access Bank ordinary shares for every 7 Diamond Bank ordinary shares.



Diamond and Access Bank both gained nearly 10 percent.



Diamond Bank said the board believed the move was “in the best interests of all stakeholders”. The bank also said its chief executive officer would step down after the merger.



Nigeria’s Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) late on Monday issued a statement in which it said: “It is a notice to merge, they have not merged yet. SEC is awaiting their application on the matter.”



The takeover follows weeks of speculation about Diamond Bank in the wake of the unexpected resignations of its chairman and three other directors in October.



Previous bank mergers in Nigeria have been imposed by the regulator. It was not immediately clear how this deal was agreed.



Diamond bank has been managing its capital since 2016 after huge loan losses worsened by a weak economy forced it to sell its foreign subsidiaries.



Reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram in Lagos, Chijioke Ohuocha and Felix Onuah in Abuja

Africa’s biggest bank to be created as Nigeria’s Access Bank is set to buy rival Diamond Bank

LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; Lawyers for the Nigerian government said they had filed a $1.1 billion lawsuit against Royal Dutch Shell and Eni in a commercial court in London on Thursday in relation to a 2011 oilfield deal.



The OPL 245 oilfield is also at the heart of an ongoing corruption trial in Milan in which former and current Shell and Eni officials are on the bench.



“It is alleged that purchase monies purportedly paid to the Federal Republic of Nigeria were in fact immediately paid through to a company controlled by Dan Etete, formerly the Nigerian minister of petroleum, and used for, amongst other things, bribes and kickbacks,” the statement said.



Reporting by Stephen Jewkes, Ron Bousso, Julia Payne, Paul Carsten, Shadia Nasralla; editing by Jason Neely

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