ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; A Nigerian umbrella trade union suspended a nationwide strike on its fourth day on Sunday, after the government agreed to hold a meeting to discuss increasing the minimum wage, a union official said.
“The general strike has been suspended, not called off,” said Chris Uyot, deputy secretary general of the Nigerian Labour Congress.
A meeting with the government will be held on Oct. 4-5, the union said in a letter to members.
Unions want the monthly minimum wage raised to about 50,000 naira ($164) from 18,000 naira. The strike began on Thursday after talks between President Muhammadu Buhari’s government and unions had broken down.
In the letter, the NLC said the meeting was as a result of “united and sustained action”, adding that the suspension was part of an attempt to provide a “conducive atmosphere” for the talks to reach a satisfactory conclusion.
“Unions and state councils are requested to maintain a high level of vigilance and mobilization until the struggle for a reasonable minimum wage is successfully concluded,” the letter stated.
Evidence suggested patchy adherence to the strike, and its impact on the economy has been difficult to calculate.
President Buhari had promised to review the minimum wage after a fuel price hike and currency devaluation in the last two years. Those were aimed at countering the effects of a global oil price plunge on Nigeria.
Buhari’s handling of the economy and the cost of living since he took office in 2015 has become a campaign issue in the build up to the country’s presidential election which is scheduled to take place in February 2019.
Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress party on Saturday nominated Buhari as its candidate to stand for re-election in next year’s poll after he ran unopposed in a nationwide primary to select a candidate. The main opposition People’s Democratic Party has not yet selected a candidate.[nL8N1WF0M5]
Additional reporting by Tife Owolabi and Felix Onuah; Writing by Paul Carsten and Alexis Akwagyiram; Editing by Peter Graff and Jane Merriman

Why nationwide strike has been suspended by Nigerian umbrella trade union

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Shares in South Africa’s MTN rose 5 percent on Thursday, after Nigeria’s central bank said on Wednesday that it was reviewing information provided by the telecoms firm and four banks over a dispute on the repatriation of dividends.
“The statement suggests there are some talks going on and the market welcomed the less harsh tone by the Nigerian central bank,” said Ruhan Du Plessis, telecoms analyst at Avior Capital Markets.
“It is looking more likely that MTN will not have to pay back the for amount after all as the market feared. The market has welcomed the progress.”
The central bank on Aug. 29 said it had ordered MTN and the four banks to bring $8.1 billion back into Nigeria that it alleged the telecoms firm sent abroad in breach of foreign exchange regulations.
Reporting by Patricia Aruo; Editing by James Macharia

MTN shares rise to 5 percent after Nigeria reviews information to resolve dispute, what you need to know…

ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria has accused HSBC of laundering money for one of the country’s former rulers, hitting back at a research note by the global bank that suggested a second term for President Muhammadu Buhari risked prolonging economic stagnation.
HSBC declined to comment on the allegation late on Saturday by the Nigerian presidency that the bank had laundered more than $100 million for former military dictator Sani Abacha.
Buhari plans to seek a second term in office at an election next February, which has created a rift within his ruling party, as some of his supporters quit to join the opposition.
An HSBC research note dated July 18 said a second Buhari term “raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil.”
In response, the presidency said what had “killed” the economy in the past was “unbridled looting of state resources by leaders, the type which was actively supported by HSBC.”
The presidency said the bank had “no moral right whatsoever” to assert that another Buhari term risked limited economic progress.
Abacha stole as much as $5 billion of public money during his five years running Africa’s top oil producing country from 1993 until his death in 1998, according to the corruption watchdog Transparency International.
In 2016, Buhari urged the World Bank to assist in the repatriation of $320 million stolen by the former military leader, which is being held by authorities in Switzerland.
Growth in Nigeria has returned after the economy entered into its worst recession in a quarter of century in 2016. However, the economy is still fragile, with high unemployment and weak infrastructure.
Inflation started to rise in August, the statistics office said after slowing for 18 months.
Buhari took office in 2015 after an election campaign largely fought on his vow to fight corruption, but his detractors have accused him of failing to investigate allies accused of wrongdoing.
The presidency said on Saturday the entities that aided corruption were under investigation for various offences.
Two former allies of Buhari now in opposition, including Senate leader Bukola Saraki, and several others have declared their intention to challenge the president in next year’s vote.
Additional reporting and writing by Chijioke Ohuocha, and Lawrence White in London, Editing by William Maclean

Why Nigeria is hitting back at HSBC, accuses bank of laundering money

* MTN faces $10 bln penalties in dispute with Nigeria
* Nigerian unit brings in third of annual core profit
* MTN CEO has said confident dispute can be resolved (Adds attorney general spokesman declining comment, background)
By Didi Akinyelure and Alexis Akwagyiram
LAGOS, Sept 11 (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s attorney general exceeded his powers in demanding $2 billion in taxes and charges from MTN Group, Africa’s biggest telecoms firm said in papers filed with Nigeria’s High Court and reviewed by Reuters.
The papers, filed on Monday in a move by the Nigerian arm of the South African firm aimed at protecting its assets, also showed MTN was seeking 3 billion naira ($10 million) from the West African country in court and legal expenses.
Earlier this month, the Nigerian government handed MTN a $2 billion tax bill days after the central bank, in a separate move, ordered the company’s Lagos unit to hand over $8.1 billion that it said was illegally sent abroad.
Nigeria, which accounts for a third of MTN’s annual core profit, is MTN’s biggest market. Some analysts see politics as a factor in the pressure on MTN as Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, who took office in 2015 on promises to push through tougher regulation, is seeking re-election in 2019.
“The attorney-general of the federation (of Nigeria) acted illegally, unconstitutionally, and in excess of his powers” by implementing charges in a “self-assessment exercise” that related to customs, the inland revenue and import duties, the court documents state.
The attorney general did not respond to telephone calls and a text message requesting comment. His spokesman, Salihu Isah, declined to comment.
The documents seen by Reuters include a writ of summons, dated Sept. 10, ordering the attorney general or his representative to make an appearance at the high court in Lagos within 30 days.
It was not clear whether the attorney general had filed a statement of defence.
The attorney general has previously said MTN Nigeria should have paid approximately $2 billion in taxes relating to imports of foreign equipment and payments to foreign suppliers.
The documents submitted by MTN, some 70 pages of which were seen by Reuters in which the attorney general is referred to as AGF and MTN Nigeria as MTNN, also refer to the allegation that MTN illegally sent $8.1 billion abroad.
The central bank said in a statement issued on Aug. 29 that the $8.1 billion was “illegally repatriated” through the “illegal conversion of MTN shareholders’ loan to preference shares”.
As a result, $8.1 billion in dividends paid by MTN Nigeria to its shareholders between 2007 and 2015 should be returned.
MTN has denied the allegations.
It is not the first time the telecoms firm has been accused of infractions in its largest market.
Its latest troubles come around two years after it agreed to pay more than $1 billion to settle a dispute over unregistered SIM cards in Nigeria, whose finances have been hit by a weak economy and volatile global oil prices.
The chief executive of MTN, which has expanded in more than 20 frontier markets including war-ravaged Syria and Afghanistan, on Monday told reporters in South Africa he was confident that the dispute would be resolved.
$1 = 304.2500 naira Additional reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha and Camillus Eboh in Abuja, and Paul Carsten in Kano; Writing by Alexis Akwagyiram; Editing by Mark Potter/David Evans and Emelia Sithole-Matarise
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Why MTN believes Nigeria’s attorney general exceeded powers in demanding $2 billion in taxes

ABUJA (Reuters) &#8211; At least 35 people were killed on Monday and hundreds injured when a gas tanker exploded in northern Nigerian state of Nasarawa and started a blaze, the state emergency agency said.
The State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) official said the accident happened at a petrol station along the Lafia-Makurdi road linking the capital city of Abuja with northern and southern Nigeria.
Usman Ahmed, acting director at SEMA, said the truck exploded at the point of discharging the gas, citing a witness account. The agency was investigating the incident, he said.
“We have confirmed 35 dead and over a hundred injured. Most of those that died rushed to the accident spot to see what was happening,” Ahmed told Reuters.
Traffic accidents are common in Nigeria, where roads are bad and safety standards poor.
At least nine people were killed in Nigeria’s commercial capital of Lagos in June when a petrol tanker caught fire and burnt 53 other vehicles.
Reporting by Camillus Eboh, Writing by Chijioke Ohuocha, Editing by Angus MacSwan

Gas tanker explosion kills at least 35 people in Nigeria

Urbanisation is spreading across Africa at great speed. Projections suggest that more than <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2015/06/01/urbanization-in-africa-trends-promises-and-challenges">half of the total population</a> will live in urban areas by 2050. Urbanisation in Nigeria is happening at a particularly astonishing rate. The population density of urban dwellers in Nigeria is growing at an annual rate of 50 per square kilometre and it’s <a href="https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DataQuery/">expected to rise</a> to 450.9 per square kilometre by 2050.
These urban dwellers include a large number of people over the age of 60. The number of old people on the continent is expected to rise to <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ageing">67 million by 2025</a>, up from an estimated 43 million in 2010. Nigeria will experience an <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/popfacts/PopFacts_2016-1.pdf">exponential increase</a> the number of older people.
These developments call for a new urbanisation agenda. A large number of old people in urban spaces in Nigeria suffer from homelessness, abuse, neglect and <a href="http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/38487/">destitution</a>. The situation is further compounded by the absence of social protection policies that can reduce vulnerability in old age.
Old people in Nigeria’s cities can’t even rely on public transport. The urban renewal has led to the phasing out of the popular Molue buses while pedestrian bridges are built in a way that makes <a href="https://www.naija.ng/479948-10-reasons-people-ignore-pedestrian-bridges-lagos.html#479948">access challenging</a> to physically challenged and older people with mobility problems. Access to safe public transportation system is one of the indicators of <a href="http://www.who.int/ageing/projects/age-friendly-cities-communities/en/">age-friendly cities and communities</a>.
Among Nigeria’s 36 states, Lagos is leading in <a href="http://www.populationconnection.org/article/african-urbanization/">urban regeneration initiatives</a>. Unfortunately, there are indications that older people and their needs are being marginalised. My research is motivated by the need to understand vulnerability and <a href="https://criticalgerontology.com/neoliberalism-resilience/">resilience in old age</a>. The findings presented here focus on what it means to grow old in the city and how urban renewal initiatives might be shaping vulnerability in old age.
<h2>The study</h2>
Data was sought through individual interviews and media reports. All these sources have their focus on demolition of markets, shops and houses in Lagos State from 2012 to 2018. The City of Lagos has a <a href="http://www.wiego.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/FIWON-Poor-Also-Must-Live-Oct2016.pdf">history of demolitions</a> of markets and neighbours that are predominantly inhabited by the less privileged. Older people are included among the victims of these demolitions. Those trading among them have <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/265284-octogenarian-others-detained-as-lagos-govt-plans-demolition-of-market.html">lost their means</a> of livelihood without the freedom to protest or any hope of compensation.
The report highlights the findings about mobility concerns, fears and experiences of using the public transportation system in Lagos.
Drawing from the experiences of 13 older people aged 60 to 78 years, the research found that the existing public transport system isn’t conducive to being used by older people.
The participants’ narratives and media reports portray the urban renewal efforts in the city as ageist and lopsided. While a great deal has been done to transform some crowded areas and commercial motor parks in the city, the changes made weren’t done in a way that helped old people. For example, pedestrian bridges had been built too high. There had also been a loss of means of livelihood and accommodation in the city.
All the interviewees had spent 29 years on average in the city. More men (8) than women had engaged in menial jobs to earn a living and have had to travel hours within traffic from one part of the city to another throughout their youthful life. The women were more into petty trading, and only one worked with one of the local government authorities before retirement.
All the interviewees had used public transport when they were younger until it became more difficult to move around the city. Even the Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) was described as mostly inaccessible. In the words of one of the interviewees:
<blockquote>I have been told that there are seats for older people in BRTs, but the drivers and commuters are often in a hurry that it becomes difficult for older people to catch up with them or even use the available seats.</blockquote>
<h2>Towards inclusive urban renewal</h2>
Urgent measures are required to avert or minimise the risks that come with using public mode of transportation in the city of Lagos. Existing public modes of transportation are in need of overhauling. Presently, the public mode of transport, pedestrian bridges and walkways are designed to reflect the needs of the young urban population. Walkways that will accommodate older people and their various mobility needs are urgently needed. Creating such pathways can enhance the safety of other social categories of commuters in the city.
More legislation and conscious efforts are required to protect the vulnerability of older people to abuse in public spaces. Buses can be provided for older people and those that are physically challenged.
The urban renewal initiatives must be inclusive and participatory. The demolition actions must be done in transparency and proper accountability. Inclusive urban regeneration framework is urgently required in addressing the existing gaps and the future mobility needs of the growing population of older people in the city. These efforts amongst others will place the City of Lagos on the march towards becoming one of the age-friendly cities in Nigeria and Africa.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101926/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ojo-melvin-agunbiade-539700">Ojo Melvin Agunbiade</a>, Post-Doctoral Researcher, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/african-population-and-health-research-center-2107">African Population and Health Research Center</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-africas-largest-city-is-failing-its-older-people-101926">original article</a>.

Why old people in Nigeria’s cities can’t even rely on public transport

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) &#8211; Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow more slowly this year than previously forecast as investors hold off before elections in early 2019, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, while Kenyan growth is forecast at more than double the pace.
In the poll taken in the past week, analysts and economists’ forecasts showed a median of 2.1 percent growth for Nigeria, accelerating to 3.0 percent next year.
That was a significant downgrade from the previous poll taken three months ago, which showed Africa’s largest economy expanding 2.6 percent this year after a lacklustre 0.8 percent in 2017.
“Upcoming elections and the associated high-wire politics already underway would instigate caution on the part of economic stakeholders,” said Rafiq Raji, chief economist at Macroafricaintel in Lagos, who expects the economy to slow in the next few quarters.
“Business and investment decisions are thus likely to be postponed till after the 2019 elections,” he added.
Nigerians vote in February. On Tuesday, 16 senators quit President Muhammadu Buhari’s ruling party and the country’s third most senior politician said he might follow suit, in a blow to the leader who is seeking re-election next year.
This comes at a tough time for the economy. Growth slowed in the first quarter of 2018 for the first time since the country pulled out of recession last year as the non-oil sector struggled.
Fellow heavyweight South Africa also suffered its worst quarterly contraction in nine years, in a reminder to investors of the huge challenge President Cyril Ramaphosa faces to deliver long term economic growth.
A separate survey earlier this month showed South African GDP is expected to grow 1.5 percent this year. [ECILT/ZA] However, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago shocked markets last week when he revealed the Bank projects growth at only 1.2 percent, slower than last year.
It is a different story for Kenya, east Africa’s biggest economy, where analysts’ forecasts showed a median of 5.5 percent growth this year despite its debt problems. That was unchanged from a poll taken three months ago.
Growth is expected to accelerate next year to 5.9 percent, slightly faster than in the last survey.
Raji attributed this to the fact that Kenya is now an oil producer, even though robust production levels are a long way off. He cautioned that the recent suspension of production by Tullow on security grounds could cause problems.
Tullow aims to produce the first oil from its $2.9 billion Kenya project by 2021, allowing the country to export crude. However, protests and security problems have halted a pilot scheme which trucks around 600 barrels of oil per day to a storage facility in Mombasa.
Major African economies are also at risk to what may be more difficult times for the world economy.
Reuters polls of several hundred economists taken this month show global economic activity remains solid but has already passed its peak, with protectionist trade policies likely to slow activity significantly.
“(The) knock-on impact of higher trade tariffs will weigh on inflation and consumption expenditure in advanced economies,” said Gaimin Nonyane, head of economic research at Ecobank Group. “Extended risk-off sentiment is also a downside risk to price levels and growth in developing countries.”
But many sub-Saharan African economies have been relatively insulated from the challenges facing larger global economies. In Ethiopia, for example, growth has averaged nearly 10 percent for the past decade, albeit from a very low base.
(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)
editing by David Stamp

Here’s why Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow before the 2019 elections

Nigeria central bank governor answers questions after MPC announcement

One of the unfortunate consequences of more people surviving childhood and living longer lives is that you start to see cases of cancer steadily increase. But while medical advances are helping to improve survival rates of cancer patients in high-income countries, the limited access to screening and treatment across Africa means that a growing number of people are dying young from largely preventable and treatable diseases. Because of this Africa is now in serious danger of sleepwalking into a cancer crisis.
This is particularly the case with women and cervical cancer, which in many countries is the most common cancer affecting women. Currently 266,000 women die horrible deaths of this disease every year – one every two minutes – of which 87% are in low- and middle-income countries, with the eight highest rates of incidence all in Africa. In Nigeria alone more than 14,000 women are diagnosed with the disease each year, more than 8,000 of whom die. And yet, tragically most of these deaths could be prevented thanks to the existence of an affordable and effective vaccine. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines targets the virus that is responsible for 70-90% of cervical cancers, depending on the vaccine. It is safe and one of the most effective and high-impact vaccines that exist, preventing 1,500 deaths for every 100,000 girls vaccinated. So then why aren’t African girls getting it?
Historically one of the major barriers was price. In wealthy countries, this relatively new vaccine can cost more than US$ 100 for each of the two doses required. Today it costs just US$ 4.50 per dose for poorer countries, bringing it within reach of those most in need, thanks to the efforts of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, of which I am Board Chair. In addition to this the age of the target population has also posed challenges. HPV vaccine is most effective when given to women before they become sexually active, so campaigns are aimed vaccinating adolescent girls, typically between 9-14 years old. Since this falls outside the age range when infants receive most of their vaccinations, it has meant finding reliable ways to reach these girls, such as working with civil society organisations, community health workers and youth friendly services to establish school-links and develop health platforms for adolescents.
Since 2013, this sort of approach has enabled more than 1 million school-aged girls in poor countries to be vaccinated against HPV, with more planned for 2017. However, progress so far has largely been achieved through dozens of relatively small-scale “demonstration projects”. If we want to make a long-term dent on mortality rates, and prevent cervical cancer from continuing to rise, to the point where it kills more women than childbirth, then HPV programmes need to be scaled-up to a national level. Countries like Rwanda and Uganda have already demonstrated that this can be achieved by first recognising the scale and severity of the problem, and then to acting on it. If other countries do the same, Gavi hopes to reach 40 million girls between now and 2020, preventing 900,000 deaths.
We saw a significant step in the right direction exactly one year ago, when on World Cancer Day, the then UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon issued a rallying cry to eliminate cervical cancer once and for all. Then this week the African Union, which is made up of 55 states, endorsed theAddis Declaration on Immunization, a commitment to ensure that all Africans – no matter who they are or where they live – can access the vaccines they need to live healthy and productive lives. The next step is for governments to earmark funds and commit to national HPV vaccine introductions.
Across Africa there remains a desperate need for cancer clinics offering women affordable screening and treatment, but compared to immunisation these are much more expensive to set-up. This is one reason why in Nigeria, for example, far more women die of cancer than men, even though Nigerian women tend to drink and smoke less, and are on average more physically active. So, prioritising HPV will not only contribute to the social and economic development of countries and help governments meet the Sustainable Development Goal of reducing premature deaths from non-communicable diseases, such as cancer, by one third, but it will also go a long way towards addressing the terrible gender gaps that exist across Africa.
A development economist and former Finance Minister of Nigeria, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has served as Board Chair of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, since January 2016﻿

Op-Ed: Africa is now in serious danger of sleepwalking into a cancer crisis

In 2015, while no one was looking, Facebook quietly partnered with Eutelsat, a communications satellite operator (also partnered with DStv) to, as a press release put it, “get more Africans online”. It is part of Zuckerberg’s vision, as stated in an October 2015 Facebook post, to “connect the entire world” because “connectivity changes lives and communities.” Or as a press release stated, it will “accelerate data connectivity for the many users deprived of the economic and social benefits of the Internet.” It all kind-of slipped under the radar and everyone just went to back to business as usual.
But I’ve been watching this with cautious optimism. Facebook has looked at Africa’s Internet connectivity problems and is hinting at leveraging Eutelsat’s framework to do something about it. But Facebook is a for-profit company, and you can bet this isn’t a purely altruistic venture. Zuckerberg has something up his sleeve &#8211; and it can potentially change everything about Africa’s telecommunications industry &#8211; for the bad if we’re not ready; for the good if we are.
Facebook’s Free Basics app (internet.org) gives you a clue in what this behemoth of a technology disruptor is thinking. Free Basics allows users to to explore useful online services and websites &#8211; such as the news, health information, education, local information, weather etc. &#8211; at no (or very little) cost. With the Eutelsat deal, the idea is that consumers in Africa will get free access to the Internet through Facebook’s platform. And it sounds like a great idea, right? But obviously it can be used for a kind-of censorship.
Facebook can limit your access to certain sites, or make you pay for other sites that don’t fit into its service. For example, you can get Whatsapp (owned by Facebook) for free, but you might need to pay to use any Google services through their platform. You can browse their news sites they’ve partnered with (and we’ve seen how Facebook has recently come under fire for helping fake news to spread) but other news sites might be more difficult to find and could require additional payment. Of course, this is fair, given that Facebook is a for-profit company, but what happens if they manage a monopoly on Internet coverage on the continent? That is something we have to prepare for ahead of time, we can’t wait until that sort of thing happens.
There is a second side to this as well. It can completely cannibalise our existing telecommunications industries. And it’s this I don’t think we’re prepared for at all.
Let me talk you through it otherwise you can miss it. Facebook owns Whatsapp. Did you notice recently that Whatsapp added video calling to its service – with no pomp and circumstance? And it’s already had voice-to-voice for a while. We know that voice revenues are declining while data usage is going up, generally speaking. Now, think about this: what if Facebook offered you free Internet access, and you know that with it comes Whatsapp, allowing you to make not only free voice-to-voice calls but also video calls? What service are you going to use the most? Which service will begin to look a bit archaic in your mind?
Our telecommunications industry would be disrupted in an instant. From a consumer point of view, all of this makes perfect sense. But from a macro point of view we have to ask different questions. For example, Vodacom reported last year that its service revenue increased by 4.9 percent (49.3 billion) thanks to mobile data, fixed-line services, and voice revenue growth trends. 52.9 billion minutes worth of calls were made on Vodacom’s network, which grew from the previous year (so voice isn’t always declining). But data is still the big grower &#8211; 27.7 percent growth (R17,287 million) and a data traffic growth of 46.8 percent. [See http://www.vodacom-reports.co.za/integrated-reports/ir-2016/our-sa.php#sel=].
There is a lot of investment into data because we all know that’s where things are headed, right? But now imagine if this sort of revenue is no longer moving in the economy &#8211; both voice and data revenue. Obviously, this would be a massive blow. Our telecommunications companies would not be able to sustain their workforce, resulting in massive job-losses and skill sets that become redundant. Then also there is the supply chain that services these industries. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Sure, new industries will arise, as they should, and new skills will be needed &#8211; but the question is are our telecommunications providers ready enough to handle this kind of change? Are we as a continent ready for it? Have we prepared enough? Because this change can come quickly &#8211; history is showing us that it does &#8211; and it could come too quickly.
Maybe this sounds a bit far fetched for you, but you can’t negate the cultural change and perception change in Africa around the Internet and Facebook’s involvement. For example, Facebook is incredibly popular in Nigeria. In 2015, Geopoll did a survey in Nigeria which stated that up to 65 percent of those who participated in it agreed with this statement: “Facebook is the Internet”. The three most popular Internet-based services or apps in Nigeria are Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp. Guess who owns all three of these? Facebook. [See http://qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/]
What is also important to consider is where the revenue goes if Facebook launches this and consumers love it and are willing to pay for some kind of upgrade or extra service, or however Facebook intends to make money from it. I can guarantee you the revenue is probably not going to stay in Africa. So, from a macro level, we need to put ourselves in a position where we embrace the change and innovation that Facebook is initiating, because change will happen, but we insist that it must comply to certain kinds of regulation or implementation &#8211; for example, revenues must stay here, or they must create a certain amount of employment, and they must be part of fostering a new eco-system with its infrastructure, and not just provide a viable consumer-oriented product and take all the revenue home.
Perhaps there is an opposing view here to consider. Instead of fighting this change, telecommunications providers might want to embrace it and use it as a catalyst to put the right frameworks in place. MTN, Cell C, Airtel, Tigo and others have already partnered with Facebook’s Free Basics service in various parts of Africa. See the full list [https://info.internet.org/en/story/where-weve-launched/]. But I wonder if they’re seeing where this can go. As they focus on their bread and butter, it’s difficult to see the disruptor’s coming through. But the fact remains that they have to see it as they are poised to be the one collective force that can instigate the right kind of change, how much change should come, and make sure it benefits our economies. They’ve got to work with regulators, government, and the likes to make sure this will be a positive change.
Large corporates need to find ways to embrace change and channel it in a beneficial way for our continent, and to ensure it’s sustainable for everyone involved. The change is coming, it’s inevitable, and when it comes, are we ready? We better be, because otherwise I think we’re going to find ourselves in a fair spot of trouble.﻿

Op-Ed: Should Africa's telecoms industry be wary of Facebook?

Dear President Trump,
I realize it’s been quite a while since we last spoke but I really need to talk to you about something important. You’re obviously kind of busy with the new job and the move down to DC, so let me just get right to it.
Please don’t repeal AGOA and go lights out on Africa. The continent simply can’t handle any more economic damage.
I know that AGOA falls into that big fat “trade” basket that’s been on the top of your agenda since taking office last week. Suffice it to say, you were certainly pretty clear about your feelings on that during the campaign. You’ve already pulled the plug on the Trans-Pacific Partnership on just your 5th day in office. And you’re pounding Mexico every day like a candy-filled piñata at a 10 year old’s birthday party. You’re clearly not wasting any time getting started, are you?
Now I’m hearing that you may want to revoke other trade agreements as well &#8211; including AGOA &#8211; largely because, like TPP, it’s another multilateral deal that you believe is lopsided and bad for America.
Listen, for the record, I understand your thinking on trade. I get it. I’ve been angry too at how things have gone over the past decade here. I definitely wasn’t a fan of how President Obama engaged with the rest of the world. Actually, much of the rest of world wasn’t either.
And yes, I agree with you that it’s America First. That was a really good campaign slogan you came up with. Short, snappy, five syllables. It worked. You won. Obviously, protecting a country’s sovereign interests should always be its’ first priority. But if you check your thesaurus, I don’t think you’ll find the words isolationism and protectionism listed as synonyms for sovereignty.
The real irony here is that for all the manufacturing jobs you are looking to create here with your new trade policies, there are also millions of other jobs that rely on the relationships we have with our global partners that will be hurt &#8211; or worse yet – lost altogether. And, as much as I hate to say it, many of those assembly-line jobs that you want to bring back that were once done by low-skilled workers in the rust belt are now being done by robots and technology. So, many of these jobs simply no longer exist. And I think it’s safe to say that robotics is a major manufacturing trend that will continue pretty much forever. So, while you may be gaining some jobs by bringing manufacturing back from Mexico and China, you’ll ultimately be killing others.
Look, you should probably think all this through a little further. I’m starting to hear that some of our allies are getting a little edgy because you’ve basically just announced that the U.S. is voluntarily giving up its front row seat at the theater in favor of one in the last row of the balcony. What you have to understand is that to lose the United States as an export and business partner would result in some level of economic calamity for most countries that do business with us. And in this case, outside of our enemies, that is virtually everyone else on the planet &#8211; including much of Africa.
I know that that you want to protect us and do what’s right for the country. Believe me, I’m all for it. But globalization isn’t just going to vanish irrespective of the nationalistic winds sweeping across the U.S. and Europe. There’s no doubt that people are angry as hell everywhere you look. Just reading through Twitter and Facebook every day is enough to make some folks run right to their therapist for an emergency session. But you shouldn’t expect that other countries are just going to roll over and agree to everything you demand just because we’re the U.S. Those days are over. Already, since you ripped-up TPP, Canada is talking about doing more business with Japan and China. That conclusion took Justin Trudeau about three days to reach.
There are obviously other big suitors out there with strong economies that will seize the opportunity to replace us in the driver’s seat in a heartbeat. And besides China and Japan, you have India, Saudi Arabia and your good friend, Vladimir Putin, among others who are chomping at the bit to throw money and influence at everyone the U.S. decides to orphan.
So don’t isolate us, Donald. As China’s President Xi Jinping said at Davos in January, “Pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room.” Our country has to do business with the rest of the world. We can’t just lower the shades and hang the “closed” sign on the front door. We’re all too inter-connected now and pulling the plug on trade will have severe repercussions many of which even the best and brightest of us can’t foresee because what you’re doing has never been done before &#8211; not like this anyway. So, I don’t know what your advisors are telling you but you might want to Google the phrase “ripple effect” and see what it says.
So with this in mind, please consider AGOA. It has been the centerpiece of U.S. policy in Africa since President Clinton signed it into law in 2000. You know that already. Or maybe you don’t. And what you’ve heard is correct &#8211; it’s not perfect. But you can’t simply walk away from a continent with 1.1 billion people that is expected to grow to 2.0 billion people or more by 2050. Quite frankly, as a businessman, you should be salivating at this and trying to figure out a way to unseat China at Africa’s dinner table. You’ve been fixated on Beijing since before taking office. Think about it &#8211; how great would it be to go after China by dramatically growing the U.S.’s presence in Africa? Increasing investment and trade? It would be the ultimate kick to Chinas groin, wouldn’t it? Be the New York dealmaker we all know you are and show us “The Art of The Deal” as your book it so aptly titled.
I agree with the folks that say that AGOA hasn’t lived up to its promise. Some of the big oil producing countries like Nigeria and Chad have derived the most benefit from it even though there have been well documented abuses with respect to corruption and exploitation. It’s definitely a big problem throughout much of Africa. And some of the smaller countries like Malawi and Gabon have barely even registered on the AGOA meter as their private sectors are so underdeveloped that they have little to export outside of a few crops. Yet, at the same time, there have also been many success stories in sectors like textiles, agriculture and auto manufacturing that demonstrate AGOA’s promise and what it was originally meant to achieve.
But keep this in mind &#8211; these large oil producing countries would take a huge hit if you move to dismantle the pact because a large percentage of their current and future export revenue would be wiped out. With oil prices already weak and production down, this would compound the impact of AGOA’s demise dramatically. Remember, most African economies these days have little to no room for error. So, the effect of AGOA being rescinded would ripple violently across the continent. And if Africa’s already hobbled economic leaders like Nigeria decline even further, the whole continent would ultimately be affected as many of the smaller countries, already on tentative economic footing, would be dragged down with them. This would be devastating.
So, Donald, don’t kill it. Fix it. Renegotiate the parts of it that don’t work just as you’ll probably end up doing with NAFTA and even TPP. Make it better. Put new checks and balances into the system to stem the corruption. Calculate the structure differently. Impose tougher punitive measures or even more stringent disqualification guidelines for those countries who violate the pact’s tenants. And at the same time, maybe look to build in new incentives so that some of the non-oil producing countries can finally benefit from AGOA the way it was originally envisioned.
Remember, AGOA benefits both Africa and the United States. It opens up the world’s largest market to many African countries while allowing for the duty-free flow of culturally diverse, quality products to American business and the American consumer. I think AGOA can be both America First -and- Africa First as well. What could be better? Everyone wins.
So, Donald, help Africa help itself &#8211; and remember that Africa’s gain is not necessarily Americas loss. It can be America’s gain too. Keep AGOA. It matters.
Oh, and by the way, congratulations on the election.﻿
 
David S. Levin is a Managing Partner at Nexus Capital Markets, LLC﻿, micro-Blogging on all things Africa. A New York investor’s view of Africa and other emerging economies. Nexus Capital Markets is a leading Pan-African/U.S. investment bank located in NY and JHB.﻿﻿

Dear President Trump, don't go lights out on Africa

A larvae outbreak which has damaged maize in South Africa&#8217;s Limpopo and North West provinces is &#8220;strongly suspected&#8221; to be the invasive armyworm that has attacked crops in neighbouring countries, a scientist said on Monday.
The infestation of fall armyworms &#8211; an invasive Central American species that is harder to detect and eradicate than its African counterpart &#8211; has erupted in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi and follows a crippling El Nino-triggered drought which scorched much of the region last year.
Countries with confirmed outbreaks can face import bans on their agricultural products because the armyworm is classified as a quarantine pest.
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Johnnie van den Berg, an entomologist at South Africa&#8217;s North-West University who has collected samples from affected farms, said taxonomic tests were being done for confirmation.
&#8220;It needs to be identified by a taxonomist but we strongly suspect it is the fall armyworm &#8230; Visually, it looks 100 percent the same,&#8221; he told Reuters in a phone interview.
&#8220;It may be confirmed by the end of this week,&#8221; he said.
Van den Berg said coverage in South Africa was not &#8220;blanket&#8221;, with outbreaks reported many kilometres (miles) apart in some places, but northern Limpopo province, bordering Zimbabwe, seems to be the epicentre.
The impact varies: some farms have had minimal leaf damage, others have been devastated.
&#8220;On some farms, there has been 90 percent damage and nearly all the leaves have been stripped from the plant. It looks like a row of broom sticks,&#8221; he said.
South Africa is expected to have a maize surplus this season after a deficit last year when 7.5 million tonnes of maize was produced against national demand of 10.5 million tonnes. [nL5N1F21E0]
Industry sources have said while an armyworm outbreak would be unlikely to push the crop into deficit it could reduce the size of the expected surplus.
&#8220;This fall armyworm is a Central American pest. Here we will need to do more research to see where and how it establishes itself,&#8221; Van den Berg said.
He said the continental invasion began in July with outbreaks in Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe. It remains unclear how it jumped across the Atlantic.
But the moths can be carried long distances by wind and may have winged across central Africa that way.
The moths lay eggs in maize plants and the caterpillars have also been known to march en masse across the landscape &#8211; hence the name.﻿

Pests in South Africa maize strongly suspected to be armyworms

The African Union’s (AU) 28th summit meeting in Addis Ababa began on Wednesday, January 25, with a meeting of foreign ministers, and will conclude tomorrow. The first days of the conference will be concerned with the many peace and security issues plaguing the continent.
The almost painless expulsion of President Yahya Jammeh from The Gambia (when he was threatened with an intervention by a multilateral force from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) will be discussed as a model for future instances of handling heads of State proving reluctant to leave office. But many other issues remain unaddressed.
The most murderous conflict in Africa is still that in South Sudan, and the summit will discuss collaborating with the United Nations (UN) on deploying a regional protection force in line with a UN resolution. Trickier still will be handling rebel leader Riek Machar – conflict has eased since he has left his country for South Africa, so some diplomats reportedly want to find a way to keep him out of the country permanently.
The slow-burning crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) still threatens to turn into extensive conflict. As of writing, President Joseph Kabila was dragging his feet on a political settlement – apparently in order to once again find a pretext to push back elections now supposed to take place before the end of the year.
The illness of his main opponent, the octogenarian Etienne Tshisekedi, who is in Europe on a medical visit, appears to have motivated the president to hold back on forming transition institutions to which he agreed on December 31.
Our baseline expectation is that he will again try to stay in power and will use force against protests, when those happen again, and we do not think entreaties from the AU (which we expect to be half-hearted anyway) will result in any fresh enthusiasm on his part to set up a transition government.
The security situation in Mali has been deteriorating in recent weeks, with terrorism by jihadist groups in the north of the country returning to levels not seen for a few years.
Libya is even worse, but the UN has taken the lead in that country by pushing hard for – essentially installing – a ‘Government of National Accord’ under the unpopular Fayez Al-Serraj, while in the east Khalifa Haftar keeps scoring successes against the jihadists of Islamic State (IS). We think the AU will follow the UN’s lead on this, but think it will ultimately be relieved when, as looks likely, Egypt and Algeria back Mr Haftar more openly and force an agreement that is more to the benefit of the latter and the secularists in the House of Representatives government.
As to Somalia, finally, the summit will discuss the eventual withdrawal of the AU mission there, Amisom. The plan is for the force to start being drawn down in 2018 and to exit by 2020. If this optimistic calendar (Amisom was created in 2007 with an initial six-month mandate) is to be respected, much more will need to be done to increase the legitimacy of Somalia’s putative government, which effectively governs a part of Mogadishu – and that only thanks to Amisom’s arms.
More purely political questions will be treated on Monday and Tuesday, January 30 and 31, with the heads of State summit. The most important of these are progress towards Morocco’s return to the AU and the election of the AU Commission chair to replace the South African Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma who is set to return home to play a greater role in domestic politics.
The two dynamics will overlap, as the Moroccans not only want to rejoin the AU, but want to work in the longer term to expel the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), the putative government-in-exile of the Western Sahara. To this end, Morocco will seek to have a friendly figure chairing the AU Commission which is in charge of the day-to-day management of the union and so has substantial influence on what the body does.
Observers expect the vote on Morocco’s admission to take place on the first day of the heads of State summit, on Monday. It seems clear that the vote will be for readmission, as the kingdom seems to have decided to postpone addressing the really thorny issue – that of the AU membership of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).
Some friends of Morocco will back it on that initiative; most countries in the AU will welcome it back as long as it is prepared to share the assembly with the SADR, and the strongest backer of the SADR, Algeria, may think that Morocco’s joining means that it has accepted the SADR’s membership, which it certainly has not.
Even more optimistic is Brahim Ghali, president of Polisario (the movement that constitutes the SADR government), who told reporters that Morocco’s acceptance of the AU’s Constitutive Act means that the kingdom “respects the borders” of the SADR.
The matter of the AU’s Constitutive Act will be the subject of some interesting diplomatic and legal manoeuvring in coming years.
The relevant clause here, and the reason why the AU recognises the SADR, is one of the principles in Article 4: “Respect of borders existing on achievement of independence.”
For the SADR and the AU, this means the line drawn by agreement between the Spanish and the Moroccans in 1969, which was the border when the Spanish left the territory in 1975. The Moroccans will no doubt argue that the territory is still not independent and attack the SADR as an illegitimate representative of the Sahrawi people anyway.
To advance its interests in this complicated debate, Rabat will want a friend as Chair of the AU Commission. There are five candidates in the running to replace Ms Dlamini-Zuma:
1.         Amina Mohamed, 55, Kenya: currently Foreign Cabinet Secretary, Ms Mohamed was educated at Oxford, entered the diplomatic service in 1985, was Head of Mission to the UN in Geneva from 2006 to 2013, and was named to cabinet in 2013. Relevant to the Morocco-SADR issue, she visited the Sahrawi refugee camps in Algeria which Polisario runs.
2.         Abdoulaye Bathily, 69, Senegal: also a career diplomat whose recent experience has been in the UN, in Mali and as special representative of the secretary-general for Africa. He started his career as a university lecturer and was engaged in politics under presidents Abdou Diouf and Abdoulaye Wade who both named him to cabinet. He has run for president twice, but supported President Macky Sall in the 2012 election. He has the support of most Francophone countries who are friendly to Morocco.
3.         Pelonomi Venson-Motoi, 65, Botswana: also currently Foreign and International Co-operation Minister. Ms Motoi studied in the US and worked as a journalist before entering politics as a member, then Member of Parliament (MP), of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). She was first named to cabinet in 2001 and has held six portfolios including her current one. She looked like a strong contender to win the chair in July 2016 in Kigali when the election was suspended because of the abstention of a number of West African countries. At the time, some thought that the abstention was a reaction to the unpopular positions of Ms Venson-Motoi’s boss, President Ian Khama, in support of the International Criminal Court (ICC), but we think the abstention was strategic in order to allow Senegal’s President Sall to name Mr Bathily as a candidate.
4.         Agapito Mba Mokuy, 51, Equatorial Guinea: the third foreign minister on the list, and the youngest contender. He has spent the past two decades at Unesco. He is generally considered very unlikely to win given that his government is practically a global pariah.
5.         Moussa Faki Mahamat, 56, Chad: The fourth foreign minister on the list: he has held that portfolio in Chad since 2008. He has been working in the civil service for almost 30 years and served as prime minister from 2003 to 2005. His nomination was puzzling, as it seemed timed to block that of Mr Bathily who had been counting on Chad’s support.
Ms Venson-Motoi and Mr Mba are highly unlikely to win. As of writing it looked as though there will be a deadlock between supporters of Ms Mohamed and those of Mr Bathily (winning the vote requires a two-thirds majority), and it is here that Mr Faki might slip through as an acceptable candidate.
There is always much negotiation in these races – a country might agree to vote for another’s candidate for the presidency, for instance, in exchange for its support in the election for the chair of the Peace and Security Council. Furthermore, a principle of rotation between regions exists.
We will not speculate over the probable winner and will reserve comment for when the new chair will have been elected.
The return of Morocco to the fold will be welcome. The kingdom was a founding member of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in 1963 and left in 1984 when the SADR was admitted (Morocco’s army was fighting a gruelling ground war against Polisario at the time).
Not least relevant is that Morocco will contribute about $1.5m a month to the AU’s budget.
Morocco already has strong ties across West Africa and is improving those in the east. When looking at the Western Sahara issue specifically, it is uncertain whether its membership will make a resolution more or less likely. We do not think the Moroccans will make any concessions, so the status quo will persist.
If they press too hard for the SADR’s expulsion, some risk will result.
Commentators have been talking about the risk of a return to full-blown war in the Western Sahara – we see this as extremely unlikely. Polisario cannot do anything much against the Moroccan army in the Sahara and knows it. It is more likely that more angry young Sahrawi men will join jihadist networks (something that has already been happening) and contribute to terror risk in Morocco.﻿

Op-Ed: Morocco and the AU summit

The African Union is due to choose a new leader on Monday in a vote more likely to expose differences over the International Criminal Court and other issues than reaffirm the continent&#8217;s solidarity and common purpose.
In a clear split, three of its four major regions – the south, the east and the largely Francophone west – are supporting their own nominees to head the bloc, making deadlock followed by horse-trading likely.
Leading candidates to replace South Africa’s Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the first woman to serve as the continent’s top diplomat, are Kenyan foreign minister Amina Mohammed and Senegal’s Abdoulaye Bathily, analysts say.
In another potentially divisive move, the 54 heads of state gathered in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, will have to decide whether to approve the re-admission of Morocco.
The North African kingdom quit the AU’s predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity, three decades ago amid a dispute over the body&#8217;s recognition of Western Sahara, most of which has been controlled by Morocco since 1976.
However, King Mohammed VI has been on a diplomatic charm offensive in the last year to try to win Rabat’s readmission.
Continental heavyweights Algeria and South Africa have been backers of the Sahrawi Republic, the domestic political movements that lays claim to the territory along the northern Sahara’s Atlantic seaboard. Neither has said explicitly it will oppose Morocco&#8217;s re-entry.
Preliminary meetings have also been dominated by disputes over the International Criminal Court (ICC), which countries such as South Africa and Kenya say is a tool of Western imperialism that unfairly targets the continent.
Conversely, Nigeria, Botswana and other states say the Hague-based court is an important legal backstop for countries whose domestic justice systems have been compromised by civil conflict.
“You have all these calls for unity but actually if you look at the AU now, it is more divided than ever – over Morocco, the regional divisions and the ICC,” said Liesl Louw-Vaudran, an AU expert at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. “It’s unprecedented.”
Dlamini-Zuma, who is tipped as a replacement for her ex-husband, Jacob Zuma, at the helm of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) this year, was due to end her term in July last year but had to extend her time when the AU failed to reach agreement on a successor.
Her election 4-1/2 years ago after intense lobbying by South Africa rankled many countries because it breached an unwritten rule preventing major states holding the AU chair.
During her time in charge, the medical doctor has focused on reforming the AU’s dysfunctional internal bureaucracy and drawing up a long-term for improving the lives of Africa’s marginal citizens, especially women and children.
However, she has been criticized for failing to heal the rifts created by her election and not doing more to prevent conflict in countries such as South Sudan, which the United Nations says is tilting towards genocide.﻿

African Union to choose new leader

In 2016, real GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have been the weakest since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. This was largely because of the weak performance in its two largest economies, South Africa and Nigeria, which together make up about half of sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s GDP.
Although oil and mining economies were hurt by the commodity slowdown, much of East Africa as well as oil-importing Francophone economies such as Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal managed robust rates of growth of above 6%. The slowdown in Africa was not uniform.
But what are the prospects for African economies in 2017?
Hopes for faster growth rest on prospects in the region’s two largest economies.
In South Africa, recovery after a severe drought in 2016 and improved electricity generation should provide a modest lift. But private sector confidence remains weak, and rising debt levels mean that South Africa remains at risk of losing its investment grade credit rating. With little room to scale up public investment, a tepid recovery is likely, at best. Faster growth will be needed to contain rising public debt. South Africa faces its next round of rating reviews in June, but it will be difficult to achieve anything meaningful by then.
In Nigeria, following a probable contraction of GDP in 2016, it will not take much to drive growth to positive levels in 2017. But higher oil prices alone – we forecast an average of $66/barrel in 2017 – are no panacea. Oil output and Nigeria’s ability to curb militancy in the Niger Delta will also matter.
Even more important are prospects in the non-oil economy, which makes up 92% of Nigeria&#8217;s GDP. Activity in the non-oil sector has been sluggish, hampered by poor policy choices, in particular a poorly-functioning foreign exchange market. Despite several flawed attempts at currency flexibility, Nigeria has never fully embraced a liberalised foreign exchange regime. The authorities are uncomfortable with allowing demand and supply to determine the value of the Nigerian naira. Because Nigeria has low levels of accumulated oil savings and its foreign exchange reserves have come under pressure, it has had to resort to curbing import demand in order to maintain a steady foreign exchange rate. However, squeezing import demand has meant maintaining a severe squeeze on the real economy. Growth prospects will depend on how quickly unsustainable foreign exchange bottlenecks are resolved.
2017 is likely to bring a cyclical recovery to sub-Saharan African economies. But this will not mean a restoration of previously robust growth rates.
Much uncertainty surrounds the likely economic impact of a Donald Trump presidency in the US. In recent weeks, global equity and commodity markets have rallied in anticipation of more expansionary fiscal policy and the possibility of faster US economic growth. The US dollar has strengthened against other currencies, especially those of emerging markets, which are seen as especially vulnerable to a potential trade war.
Many worry about how the US will afford more infrastructure spending; bond markets have sold off (with prices falling and bond yields rising), reflecting the concern that larger fiscal deficits may be needed to enable any spending stimulus. Each of these factors will have implications for sub-Saharan African economies in 2017.Africa is unlikely to be the direct target of any Trump-induced trade protectionism. But if trade tensions escalate, potentially weakening confidence in emerging market prospects, sub-Saharan African economies are likely to be affected. Over the last two decades, Africa&#8217;s trade with emerging markets has grown rapidly, at the expense of its trade with more developed partners. A slowdown in global trade would be a negative for trade-dependent emerging markets and could hurt their demand for sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s export commodities.
To counter this, African economies will have to redouble efforts to boost intraregional trade. While unlikely to compensate for a global trade slowdown, it might mitigate some of its more negative effects. Plans for an African Tripartite Free-Trade Area (TFTA) − encompassing 26 economies from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) − should get underway in 2017. The challenge will be how to make the new trade partnership meaningful. Poor infrastructure links and weak trade complementarities hampered earlier trade initiatives. However, faced with the threat of new disruptions to existing trade patterns and supply-chain integration, it is even more important that African economies start trading more among themselves. 
In the years following the 2008-09 global financial crisis, , African economies took advantage of cheaper financing to issue record amounts of traded external debt.  Many of these countries are now only five or six years away from a large amount of this Eurobond debt maturing. Ordinarily, borrowing countries would be looking to refinance their existing debt, issuing more long-term debt some time before their existing debt is due to mature. But rising US interest rates and higher bond yields may complicate this process as global investors will likely demand even high returns for investing in sub-Saharan African debt, which is perceived to be more risky. 
For African governments, borrowing internationally to invest in infrastructure is likely to become more expensive. They will have to do more to reassure lenders that they can repay existing debt. Those countries that are able to boost confidence by signing up for IMF and World Bank reforms will likely be rewarded with access to cheaper financing. Those that fail to adopt reforms could find their access to international capital markets more constrained.
Weak growth in recent years has impacted the health of the banking sector in different sub-Saharan African economies. Weaker commodity prices and sluggish fiscal revenue resulted in many governments falling behind on payments to suppliers and contractors. The prevalence of fiscal arrears (late payment by government) has often been closely linked to the problem of non-performing loans in different banking systems.  As banks face mounting losses, they become more reluctant to lend. Economic momentum slows further.
Often the problems are country-specific. Prior to the collapse in the oil price in late-2014, Nigerian banks were used to lending in foreign exchange. But currency depreciation since then has made foreign exchange loan repayment more difficult. It has also called into question capital adequacy, the buffer (measured in local currency) through which banks are able to absorb losses. Until these issues are resolved comprehensively, it is difficult to see the return of new lending appetite on a sustained basis.
Populist policies have also played a role in weakening the performance of the financial sector. In Kenya, the full impact of the adoption of loan rate caps and regulated loan-deposit spreads, introduced in 2016, will only be seen in 2017 or beyond. Banks now face a maximum rate at which they are able to lend to clients. Wherever loan rate caps have been introduced in the past, the effect has been the same. If banks cannot price adequately for risk, they withdraw their lending, choosing to lend only to the safest and most established borrowers.  Small and medium enterprises as well as new start-ups with no established credit histories will likely face the brunt of this, meaning several growth and employment opportunities will be forgone somewhat needlessly. 
While Africa&#8217;s economies face more difficult external conditions in 2017, many of the policies that have contributed to weaker economic growth are home-grown. The good news is that average regional growth should recover in 2017. But greater reform and deeper debate on the domestic policy choices that have constrained growth are required for more meaningful transformation. 
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*Razia Khan is Standard Chartered’s Chief Economist for Africa and a well-known commentator on African markets. Razia advises the Bank’s clients on Africa strategy and provides regular updates to African central banks, finance ministries and multilateral institutions. She joined the Bank in 1997. Razia holds a BSc (Hons) degree in economics and an MSc (Econ) in development, including monetary economics and international trade law, from the London School of Economics. Razia has been a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Councils on Population and on Poverty and Development. She serves on the Advisory Board of the Royal Africa Society.﻿

Op-Ed: Razia Khan's 2017 key economic trends to watch in Africa

According to global advisory firm Arton Capital&#8217;s latest <a href="https://wpyadmin.ne.cision.com/l/pveiodov/www.passportindex.org">Passport Index</a>, South Africa&#8217;s passport is the most valuable on the African continent, with a score of 90, which ranks it 49th in the table, followed by Botswana with a score of 69, Lesotho with a score of 66 and Malawi with a score of 65. Whilst South Africa is ranked the most valuable passport in Africa it should be noted that its passport is less valuable than countries such as the Russian Federation and Albania
The lowest-scoring African countries are Nigeria (41), Ethopia (34) and Somalia, while the world’s least-desirable passport goes again to Afghanistan, with a score of just 23.  Pakistan (26) and Sri Lanka (35)﻿
The Index ranks national passports by the cross-border access they bring, assigning a “visa-free score” according to the number of countries a passport holder can visit visa-free or with visa on arrival.
Globally Germany takes the lead with a visa-free score of 157. Singapore overtakes South Korea and becomes the highest ranked Asian passport, with a visa free score of 156, coming second.
The index also shows changes to the ranking of countries in 2016. Marshall Islands is on top of the winners’ list by adding 35 countries to its visa-free score. Palau, Micronesia, follow with 34 additional countries, while Solomon Islands and Tuvalu added 33. Peru is the biggest winner in South America with additional 31 countries.
The newly added World Openness Score (WOS) tracks the progression of freedom of mobility across the globe. The world openness score in 2016 was 17,925. In the first few days of 2017, the score has increased to 17,948. This trend shows opening of borders but will it continue? With the recent backlash against globalisation and ongoing immigration issues, the World Openness Score may be in danger of decline.
The comparison tool also has a newly added Improve function, which demonstrates how the addition of one or more passports to an existing travel document can improve the holder’s Global Mobility Score (GMS). For example, a Lebanese citizen has a GMS of 38. However, by adding a passport of Saint Lucia, their Global Mobility Score increases drastically to 123, which would represent the possibility of visa-free travel to over 61% of the countries we examine. For many people, this is priceless.
New Top 10 Passport Power Ranking:
<ol start="1">
<li>157 &#8211; Germany</li>
<li>156 &#8211; Singapore, Sweden</li>
<li>155 &#8211; Denmark, Finland, France, Spain, Switzerland, Norway, UK, USA</li>
<li>154 &#8211; Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Luxembourg, Portugal, Japan</li>
<li>153 – Malaysia, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand</li>
<li>152 – Greece, South Korea, Australia</li>
<li>151 – Czech Republic, Iceland</li>
<li>150 – Hungary</li>
<li>149 – Malta, Poland</li>
<li>148 – Slovenia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia</li>
</ol>
New Top 10 Individual Passport Power Ranking:
<ol start="1">
<li>Germany</li>
<li>Singapore</li>
<li>Sweden</li>
<li>Denmark</li>
<li>Finland</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Spain</li>
<li>Switzerland</li>
<li>Norway</li>
<li>United Kingdom﻿﻿</li>
</ol>

Africa's most valuable and least desirable passports

The number of billionaires in Africa – and the size of their fortunes – continues to drop. On this year&#8217;s list, FORBES is only including African billionaires living in Africa, instead of featuring Africa&#8217;s 50 richest people. There are 21 billionaires on this year’s list, worth a combined $70 billion. On the November 2015 Africa Rich List, there were 23 African billionaires worth a combined $79.8 billion. That in turn was down from 28 African billionaires in 2014.
Nigerian cement tycoon Aliko Dangote remains Africa’s richest person for the sixth year running with a $12.1 billion fortune, despite a nearly $5 billion drop in his net worth for the second year in a row. Dangote is joined by just two other Nigerian billionaires on this year’s list – telecom tycoon Mike Adenuga, who is Africa’s third richest person with an estimated $5.8 billion fortune, and oil billionaire Folorunsho Alakija, who has an estimated net worth of $1.6 billion. Two Nigerians dropped off the Billionaires List this year – oil marketer Femi Otedola, whose net worth dropped from $1.6 billion in November 2015 to just $330 million today, and sugar billionaire Abdulsamad Rabiu, whose net worth dropped below $1 billion in the wake of a weakened Nigerian currency.
http://cnbc.africa/news/special-report/2016/01/31/the-forbes-billionaires-list-2016/
South Africa retains its dominance on the Africa List. While the country is tied with Egypt for the largest number of individual billionaires, South Africa’s six billionaires are worth a combined $22.7 billion – $7 billion more than Egypt’s six billionaires. The richest South African billionaire and the continent’s second richest person is diamond magnate Nicky Oppenheimer, who has maintained a low profile since selling his family’s stake in diamond giant De Beers to Anglo American for $5.1 billion in cash in 2012. Luxury goods tycoon Johann Rupert and retail magnate Christoffel Wiese are tied as South Africa’s second richest and Africa’s fourth richest billionaires, each with a $5.5 billion fortune. Wiese’s fortune has dropped $1 billion since the November 2015 Africa list, while Rupert’s net worth is down $800 million.
Egypt’s richest billionaire is Nassef Sawiris, whose $5.3 billion fortune is up $400 million since November 2015. Sawiris runs OCI, one of the world’s largest nitrogen fertilizers. The country’s next richest person is his brother Naguib Sawiris, who was Egypt’s biggest gainer on the list. His net worth increased $700 million to $3.7 billion. In December 2016, Naguib Sawiris announced that he would be stepping down as CEO of his telecom company, Orasom Telecom Media &amp; Technology.
FORBES counts only two female billionaires in Africa: Angola&#8217;s Isabel dos Santos – Africa’s richest woman with a $3.2 billion fortune, and Nigeria’s Alakija. Dos Santos is the daughter of Angola’s president, who appointed her as head of Angola’s state oil firm Sonangol in June 2016. Alakija is the vice chair of Nigerian oil exploration company, Famfa Oil.
READ: <a href="/news/western-africa/2016/09/17/africas-second-richest-woman/">How Africa’s second richest woman gained her fortune</a>
At 41, Tanzanian Mohammed Dewji is Africa’s youngest billionaire, well below the average age of 63. He is CEO of conglomerate METL, which his father founded in the 1970s. Eighty-six-year-old Onsi Sawiris of Egypt is the continent&#8217;s oldest billionaire and the father of two other African billionaires – Nassef and Naguib Sawiris.
Thirteen out of Africa’s 21 billionaires have self-made fortunes, while the other eight inherited their fortunes. The 21 billionaires hail from seven countries: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco (which has three billionaires), Algeria (one billionaire), Angola (one billionaire) and Tanzania (one billionaire).
READ: <a class="yoast-link-suggestion__value" href="http://cnbc.africa/news/special-report/2016/03/01/forbes-30th-annual-worlds-billionaires-issue/" target="_blank">Forbes 2016 List of the World’s Richest People</a>
METHODOLOGY
Our list tracks the wealth of African billionaires who reside on the continent, thus excluding Sudanese-born billionaire Mo Ibrahim, who is a UK citizen, and billionaire London resident Mohamed Al-Fayed, an Egyptian citizen. This year&#8217;s list includes only billionaires, rather than the 50 richest people in Africa. We calculated net worths using stock prices and currency exchange rates from the close of business on Thursday, January 5. To value privately-held businesses, we couple estimates of revenues or profits with prevailing price-to-sales or price-to-earnings ratios for similar public companies.
We have purposely excluded dispersed family fortunes such as the Chandaria family of Kenya and the Madhvanis of Uganda, because the wealth is believed to be held by dozens of family members. We do include wealth belonging to a member’s immediate relatives if the wealth can be traced to one living individual; in that case, you’ll see “&amp; family” on our list as an indication.

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