Commodities market outlook
Ebrahim Patel, Commodities Specialist, RMB joins CNBC Africa for an update of how commodity markets faired this week.
Thu, 17 Nov 2016 07:59:03 GMT
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AI Generated Summary
- Gold prices have reacted to shifts in the US dollar, treasury yields, and physical demand from India and China, with recent retracement following moderate US inflation data.
- Copper initially surged on expectations of infrastructure spending under the Trump administration but dropped as market focus shifted to supply and demand fundamentals.
- Oil prices have remained range-bound due to mixed factors, including increased US oil stocks, upcoming OPEC meeting, and uncertainty surrounding supply dynamics.
The commodities market experienced a mixed week with gold, copper, and oil prices showing various trends and fluctuations. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has been reacting to multiple factors including the strength of the US dollar, US treasury yields, and recent moderate inflation data from the US. Despite a drop in gold prices following Trump's victory, the market has seen a retracement as the dollar weakens. Physical demand from India and China remains strong, although this has not significantly impacted prices in the short term. On the other hand, copper initially spiked on expectations of increased infrastructure spending under the Trump administration. However, the commodity dropped as market sentiment shifted towards the fundamentals of supply and demand. While there is hope for future demand from infrastructure projects, the real impact on copper prices will depend on tangible progress in these initiatives.
Oil prices have remained range-bound, with bearish and bullish factors causing fluctuations. Increased US oil stocks have put pressure on prices, while the upcoming OPEC meeting on November 30th presents a potential bullish outlook. Russia's indication of a possible output freeze agreement with OPEC members has provided some support to oil prices. However, the market continues to grapple with oversupply fundamentals, leading to uncertainty and volatility in the short term. The possibility of OPEC reaching a significant production cut agreement could be the catalyst needed to push oil prices above the $50 mark.
Overall, the commodities market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, economic data, and market sentiment. While short-term fluctuations are influenced by a range of factors, long-term price movements are ultimately determined by the supply and demand dynamics of each commodity. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring key indicators and events to gauge the future trajectory of commodity prices across various sectors.