Friedman: ANC elective conference could be postponed

As South Africa and the ruling African National Congress await the emergence of new leadership from the party's upcoming elective conference, the anticipation is overshadowed by uncertainties and fears of potential postponement. Professor Steven Friedman, a political analyst and columnist, in an interview with CNBC Africa's Aviwe Mtila, highlighted the looming challenges that could potentially derail the conference's proceedings. Friedman pointed out that the core issue leading to the probable postponement of the ANC elective conference is the high likelihood of the results being disputed due to numerous irregularities and unresolved disputes within the party. He emphasized the absence of a neutral authority within the ANC that could arbitrate these disputes effectively, making a contested election a risky endeavor. The absence of a centralized authority acceptable to all factions within the party complicates the scenario, raising doubts about the conference's ability to proceed smoothly. Past incidents at regional and league conferences, where disputes led to the immediate postponement of the events, serve as cautionary tales for the ANC as they approach the deadline for new leadership. Furthermore, the ANC faces a strict constitutional requirement that necessitates the election of a new leadership body before the current term expires in a few weeks. Failure to adhere to this mandate risks the party operating under an illegitimate leadership structure, posing a significant constitutional crisis. Amidst these challenges, Friedman highlighted that the only viable solution to salvage the conference and prevent potential chaos is through a negotiated deal between the two major factions supporting Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. By reaching a compromise and avoiding a contested election, the ANC can avert a crisis that might follow should the results be disputed. Friedman underscored the possibility of a scenario where a compromise could involve sharing leadership positions between the two factions, as witnessed in the 2002 ANC conference. However, if an agreement proves elusive, the need for a neutral third-party candidate as a potential president might emerge as a last-resort solution. When discussing the policy implications of a potential Ramaphosa presidency, Friedman emphasized that the dichotomy between Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma's supporters reflects a broader economic divide within South Africa. Ramaphosa's base comprises individuals who have benefited from the country's post-apartheid economic reforms, advocating for a market-driven economy and stability. On the other hand, Dlamini-Zuma's supporters represent marginalized groups seeking broader economic inclusivity and resources allocation. The ANC elective conference holds significant weight not only for the future leadership of the party but also for the stability and direction of South Africa as a nation. With the clock ticking towards a crucial deadline, the ANC faces a pivotal decision that could shape the country's political landscape for years to come.