Kenya’s worst locust infestation in 70 years threatens food security, exports

Kenya is currently facing its worst locust infestation in over 70 years, posing a significant threat to the country's food security and exports. The invasion, primarily affecting the northern part of the country, has raised concerns about the potential economic impact on Kenya's agriculture sector. However, John Ashbourne from Capital Economics London suggests that while the situation is devastating for those directly affected, the economic effects may not be as severe as feared. He highlights that most of Kenya's export goods, such as tea and horticultural products, are predominantly produced in the southern regions, like the Rift Valley, which have not been significantly impacted by the locust invasion. Ashbourne emphasizes that as long as the infestation remains contained in the northern areas, the overall impact on the national economy may be limited. The affected northern regions contribute about 15% to Kenya's GDP, a similar share of agriculture, but the southern areas remain unaffected. Thus, the economic impact, while significant for those directly impacted, may not be as severe on a national scale. Despite the locust invasion, there is a possibility for the agriculture sector to perform better in the coming months. In recent years, the sector has struggled primarily due to drought conditions. However, there have been signs of improvement, with exports of horticultural goods showing growth towards the end of 2019. Ashbourne suggests that if the drought conditions improve and the locust invasion does not spread to the major exporting regions, there is potential for a more positive outcome compared to previous years. While long-term solutions like value addition are crucial for the sector's growth, addressing immediate challenges such as managing the locust infestation and responding to drought situations effectively are top priorities for the government and relevant bodies. The flower industry in Kenya, particularly the floriculture sector, has faced challenges in accessing certain markets due to legal issues. With changes in regulations in the EU potentially affecting exports, smaller players in the industry may require support to navigate these complexities. Coordination at the industry or government level to maintain standards and share best practices could help smaller farms sustain their export activities. Diversifying into new markets such as the Middle East presents an opportunity for the sector to strengthen its resilience against market shocks. Geographical advantages and existing transport links make markets in the Middle East viable options for Kenya's flower exports. John Ashbourne emphasizes the need for Kenya to diversify its export destinations away from the dependence on Europe, ensuring a more sustainable market strategy. In terms of competitiveness, Ashbourne suggests that while countries like Brazil may outproduce Kenya in certain sectors like coffee, focusing on value addition and market proximity can help Kenya maintain its competitive edge. Improving processing techniques for products like coffee and expanding market reach for products like flowers can enhance Kenya's competitiveness in the global market.