COVID-19: Has Africa’s aviation industry reached the end of the runway?

The aviation sector has been one of the hardest-hit industries by the COVID-19 pandemic, with airline fleets being massively grounded worldwide. As we navigate life after the pandemic, there are questions swirling around the possibility of the aviation industry returning to its former glory. Tony Payne, an aviation lawyer and partner at DLA Piper, weighed in on the topic during a recent interview with CNBC Africa. Payne acknowledged that the recovery of the aviation industry will depend on how quickly pandemic-related restrictions are lifted, especially considering the cross-border nature of aviation. Recent reports have shown a gradual increase in air traffic in Asia, with projections indicating a potential global traffic increase by the late summer or third quarter of the calendar year. When discussing the challenges facing African airlines, Payne highlighted the trend of airline consolidation that has been ongoing worldwide for years. The current crisis is expected to result in a significant contraction in the industry, leading to fewer airlines but potentially offering consumers a better product and more economic stability. Payne emphasized that the model for African airlines may follow this trend towards greater consolidation. Regarding the sustainability of national carriers, Payne pointed out a shift away from them towards more commercial operations in recent years. This shift has brought about benefits such as increased consumer choice, new investments, and global connectivity for airlines. Payne suggested that seeking bailouts for national carriers may not be the most sustainable solution and that support should be evaluated case by case to ensure maximum economic benefits. In terms of opportunities post-pandemic, Payne mentioned that smaller players like Kuala Lue and Jambu Jet could benefit from the industry consolidation by leveraging their agility and unique strengths to carve out a niche in the market. Overall, Payne's insights shed light on the potential changes and opportunities that lie ahead for Africa's aviation industry as it seeks to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.