Apakan Securities’ H2 economic outlook for Côte d’Ivoire

Côte d’Ivoire, a major cocoa-producing country in West Africa, is currently facing a complex set of challenges that are impacting its economic and political landscape. With the recent resignation of its Vice President and the unfortunate passing of its Prime Minister, the nation is navigating through a period of uncertainty and transition. Adding to the mix is the upcoming October presidential elections, which have been clouded with speculation and intrigue. To shed light on the economic prospects for Côte d’Ivoire in the second half of the year, Arnold Dublin Green, the Head of Global Markets at Apakan Securities, shared insights in an exclusive interview with CNBC Africa. Green highlighted key developments and provided valuable analysis on the country's current situation. The economic outlook for Côte d’Ivoire appears to be a mixed bag, with both challenges and opportunities on the horizon. One of the key themes that emerged from Green's interview was the impact of recent political events on the country's financial markets. The sudden demise of Prime Minister Koli Balikam sent shockwaves through the markets, leading to a temporary sell-off of bonds. However, as the dust settled, investors regained confidence, and bonds began to trade better. Green expressed cautious optimism, noting that while uncertainties loom, the market sentiment has stabilized. The resignation of the Vice President and the looming elections have added layers of complexity to Côte d’Ivoire's economic landscape. Green pointed out that the local bond market in Côte d’Ivoire has traditionally been driven by domestic investors who possess a deep understanding of the local dynamics. Despite the challenging environment, Green believes that local investors will continue to show interest in the domestic bond issuance. However, he cautioned that external factors, such as the response of foreign investors to Eurobonds, could introduce volatility to the market. As the country grapples with political transitions and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the timing of the domestic bond issuance raises questions about investor confidence. The uncertainty surrounding the October elections further complicates the situation, with speculation rife about the possibility of postponement. Green acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the election timeline, citing recent events as potential triggers for delays. While the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the electoral roadmap, Green emphasized the need for vigilance and readiness to adapt to changing circumstances. In conclusion, Côte d’Ivoire's economic landscape remains fluid, with a delicate balance between challenges and opportunities. The resilience of the local market, coupled with cautious investor sentiment, paints a nuanced picture of the country's economic prospects. As the nation navigates through a period of transition, stakeholders are bracing themselves for potential shifts in the political and financial spheres. With the October elections looming large, the coming weeks will test Côte d’Ivoire's ability to steer through turbulent waters and emerge stronger on the other side.