How the post- #ENDSARS lootings impact Nigeria’s retail property market

The aftermath of the EndSARS protests in Nigeria has left a lasting impact on the retail property market in the country, with vandalism and looting affecting investor sentiments and property development. According to a report by NorthCourt, the events following the peaceful protests have triggered immediate, mid, and long-term responses within the real estate sector. Ayo Ibaru, the COO and Director for Real Estate Research at NorthCourt, recently shared insights on the implications of these events on the property market. The report highlights three main phases that the market is expected to go through: short-term flight responses, mid-term rise in gated community investments, and long-term prospects for positive political and economic developments. One of the key takeaways from the report is the emphasis on security and the need for increased investment in safeguarding properties. Investors are expected to prioritize security measures to mitigate risks and rebuild trust in the market. With the recent challenges posed by the protests and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the retail property sector in Nigeria has witnessed significant shifts in investment patterns. Prior to the disruptions, there was a growing trend towards smaller-scale developments and neighborhood investments in the retail space. Local investors were showing confidence in the market and opting for smaller, niche projects to align with changing consumer preferences. However, the recent events have forced property developers and investors to reevaluate their strategies and prioritize security measures to protect their investments. In response to the heightened security concerns, the report suggests a rise in 'prop tech' solutions that combine property management with technology. These tech-enabled solutions offer enhanced security services, access controls, and monitoring systems to ensure the safety of properties. By leveraging technologies like drones and automated access controls, property developers can achieve higher efficiency levels and optimize their security spending. The mobility trends in the market have also been impacted by the ongoing changes in work dynamics due to the pandemic. With more people working from home, there has been a noticeable shift in movement patterns towards residential locations. This trend has implications for property developments and investments, as developers seek to adapt to the new demand for home-based amenities and services. The report underscores the importance of understanding these mobility trends to make informed decisions about future investments in the retail sector. Looking ahead, the future of grade A office spaces remains uncertain, as the market grapples with the challenges posed by the pandemic and social disruptions. The demand for office spaces is expected to evolve, with mixed-use developments emerging as a viable solution to mitigate risks and ensure stable returns on investments. Developers are advised to diversify their projects and incorporate retail, residential, and office spaces within a single development to mitigate market uncertainties. The concept of mixed-use developments offers a resilient approach to property development, enabling investors to navigate the changing market dynamics and reduce exposure to economic fluctuations. As Nigeria's retail property market adapts to the post-EndSARS landscape, stakeholders are urged to embrace innovative solutions, prioritize security measures, and explore diversified investment strategies to build a sustainable and thriving real estate sector in the country.