SA retail sales & mining stats out this week, here’s what to expect

Nedbank Economist, Johannes Khosa, provided insights into the upcoming release of mining production and retail trade sales figures for the month of February during an interview with CNBC Africa. The February retail sales data is eagerly anticipated as it follows a 3.5% year on year decline in January, a period marked by restrictions due to the second wave of the pandemic. In contrast, Khosa expects a more positive outlook for February, projecting a contraction of only 1.5% year on year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending. Notably, the economy is showing signs of improvement with retailers witnessing increased sales, pointing towards a potential rebound in consumer activity. The momentum is expected to continue throughout the year, supported by low interest rates and enticing offers from retailers. Despite the challenges posed by the ongoing vaccination process and the looming threat of further waves of the pandemic, these risks have been factored into the outlook. The slow rollout of vaccines and the possibility of renewed lockdowns could affect the pace of recovery but are not expected to derail the positive trajectory in retail sales. On the other hand, the mining sector is also poised for a rebound, with expectations of a moderate decrease in the rate of contraction in February compared to January's figures of 6.2% year on year. This shift is attributed to improved global demand and rising commodity prices, which are driving the production in the sector. The cautious optimism surrounding mining production is tempered by challenges such as electricity shortages and policy uncertainties in South Africa, which could hinder the sector's full recovery. Overall, South Africa is hopeful for a favorable outcome in both retail sales and mining production figures, despite the prevailing challenges that could impact the pace of economic recovery.