S&P set to announce SA rating review decision
Standard & Poor's is unlikely to take any action on South Africa's credit later tonight but may change its outlook as the country's continues to struggle to grow the economy although power shortages are easing. CNBC Africa’s Godfrey Mutizwa spoke to Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop about the action which may come after the close of Johannesburg markets.
Fri, 17 Nov 2023 10:50:30 GMT
Disclaimer: The following content is generated automatically by a GPT AI and may not be accurate. To verify the details, please watch the video
AI Generated Summary
- The delicate balance between strengths like credible governance and flexible exchange rates, and challenges in infrastructure and fiscal risks, will shape S&P's assessment.
- Cautious optimism exists for economic recovery, with expectations of growth exceeding 1% in the upcoming year driven by improved electricity availability.
- The transition towards renewable energy sources presents opportunities for long-term sustainability, contingent on government support and infrastructure development.
Standard & Poor's (S&P) is set to announce its decision on South Africa's credit rating review, with expectations leaning towards a potential adjustment of the country's outlook rather than an immediate action on the rating itself. The nation continues to grapple with economic challenges, although there are signs of relief in the form of easing power shortages. CNBC Africa's Godfrey Mutizwa engaged in a discussion with Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist at Investec, to delve into the intricacies of the situation.
Bishop highlighted the critical elements that could sway S&P's decision, emphasizing the importance of a stable outlook or a positive shift. Factors such as credible governance at the South African Reserve Bank and a flexible exchange rate were noted as strengths for the economy. However, concerns linger over infrastructure-related barriers to growth and potential fiscal risks. The delicate balance between these aspects forms the backdrop against which S&P's assessment will unfold.
Despite the challenges, there is cautious optimism regarding economic recovery. Bishop mentioned expectations of a growth rate exceeding 1% in the upcoming year, with improvements in electricity availability being a significant driver. While challenges remain, progress in resolving power shortages and infrastructure issues could pave the way for a gradual economic upturn.
An area of focus in the conversation was the transition towards renewable energy sources and the implications for South Africa's energy landscape. While acknowledging the positive trajectory in the long term, concerns were raised about project viability and transmission infrastructure. The alignment of government policies and support for renewable energy initiatives emerged as a crucial factor in sustainable energy development.
Additionally, Bishop touched upon the risks associated with fiscal consolidation and the impact on investor perception. Despite potential concerns, the anticipation of a shift in the United States' interest rate environment and a favorable outlook for emerging markets may offer some respite. The upcoming budget announcement will be closely scrutinized for signals of fiscal discipline and strategic economic planning.
Looking ahead, the path to economic recovery appears to be gradual but contingent on sustained efforts to address infrastructure bottlenecks, promote renewable energy investments, and adhere to sound fiscal management practices. The forthcoming decisions by S&P and the government's budgetary actions will play a pivotal role in shaping South Africa's economic trajectory in the coming years.
