Europe, Africa oil markets tighten, lending support to futures

Oil prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, hovering around $83 per barrel at the upper end and $80 per barrel at the lower end. The current prices are considered high, especially compared to the downward trend witnessed last week. Rufus Kamau, Lead Market Analyst at FXPESA, explained that one of the primary factors driving this stability is the disruption of oil supply in the Red Sea region. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza has heightened insecurity, further exacerbated by the Houthis in the Red Sea, impacting global trade and supply chains. There is pressure to de-escalate the conflict, with hopes for potential resolution later this year that could lead to a drop in oil prices. However, the situation in the Middle East suggests a likelihood of extension over the next few weeks. The consequences of rising oil prices could pose challenges for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Kenya, leading to difficulties in oil supply and higher prices. This scenario may be compounded by the extended delivery times due to disruptions, forcing ships to take longer routes. On the flip side, the U.S. has been capitalizing on OPEC's oil output cuts, expanding its production and gaining market share. The recent announcement by the U.S. to replenish its strategic oil reserves is expected to increase demand and potentially drive prices higher in the coming months. The overall impact on the global economy, particularly in East Africa, is expected to result in a new wave of inflation, affecting import prices and cost of living. The challenges of currency depreciation and dollar scarcity experienced last year may resurface. The intricate relation between rising oil prices and monetary policies highlights a delicate balance for central banks. The conventional strategy of increasing interest rates might not be conducive in the current scenario. Rufus suggested the possibility of incentivizing the oil sector through short-term price subsidies to protect consumers amidst soaring oil prices. For consumers and businesses, the impact of rising oil prices could result in higher expenses, inflation, and business sector vulnerabilities. Consumers may face challenges in dealing with increased product prices, necessitating a shift towards locally manufactured goods. Businesses are advised to hedge their positions and lock in lower oil prices to mitigate risks. Government interventions such as bilateral agreements for a stable oil supply could provide long-term planning solutions. Several factors, including geopolitical risks in the Middle East, China's oil demand stimulus measures, and the U.S. strategic oil reserve replenishment, are set to influence oil prices in the coming months. The interplay between supply and demand dynamics on a global scale, alongside economic trends in major economies, will be critical in shaping oil price movements. While some factors may drive prices higher, slowing global demand due to economic recessions in key regions could balance the market and limit volatility.