East African financial markets review

The financial landscape of East Africa is experiencing dynamic shifts, with both foreign exchange (FX), money markets, and macroeconomics exhibiting noteworthy movements. Influenced by a complex interplay of factors, Stanbic Bank Uganda's Daisy Anteane, Country Lead for Derivatives & Structured Solutions, joined CNBC Africa to discuss some of the key dynamics and implications currently ongoing in the region. Anteane delved into key topics such as debt sustainability, money market tightening, currency movements, and their ripple effects on economic activity in East Africa. Debt sustainability has been a global theme impacted by interest rate hikes from more advanced markets. In East Africa, countries like Uganda and Kenya have set targets for debt-to-GDP ratios but face challenges due to rising debt service costs limiting discretionary spending, potentially impacting economic growth. Despite this, East African countries have shown resilience, with each forecasted to grow at over 5% this financial year. Various sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, and services are driving positive growth across the region. The recent unexpected rate hike in Uganda was driven by inflation concerns and currency depreciation, aiming to curb inflation and manage the impact on the economy. This move is likely to lead to an uptick in the yield curve, posing challenges for private sector growth. Money markets in East Africa have seen liquidity tightening due to inflation concerns, resulting in higher interest rates across different tenors, affecting credit growth but presenting investment opportunities. Currency movements in countries like Kenya and Uganda have been influenced by portfolio investors seeking higher yields in other markets, leading to currency depreciation. Anteane expects Uganda's currency to appreciate by the end of the second quarter, driven by coffee flows, while Kenya is anticipated to remain stable following positive investor inflows. Overall, the outlook for the East African financial markets presents a mixed picture of challenges and opportunities, with countries striving to navigate through global economic shifts and regional dynamics.