Can the Gambia sustain growth trajectory?

The Gambia is on a path of steady economic growth according to the World Bank's macroeconomic outlook, which projects a strengthening Real GDP growth to around 5.6 per cent between this year and 2026. This growth is expected to be supported by the implementation of the Recovery-Focused National Development Plan 2023–2027. Alieu Secka, Transformation Specialist at ABSS Consulting, shed light on the factors contributing to this growth trajectory and the challenges that need to be addressed for sustained development. The country has seen substantial investment in both public and private sectors, particularly in road construction, electricity, water supply infrastructure, and agriculture. The Gambian agricultural sector, primarily rainfed, experienced success due to a good rainy season and support from international agencies such as IFAD, ADB, and the World Bank. This has contributed to a 0.4 per cent growth, showcasing the potential for further development. Secka emphasized the importance of building resilience against external shocks, indicating that the government's efforts are focused on key sectors such as services, agriculture, and remittances. However, there is a need for greater automation, improved irrigation, product handling, and marketing to fully leverage the growth potential of these sectors. The government is also working on strengthening the local currency and addressing inflation challenges through import substitution and intensifying agriculture. The depreciation of the local currency has led to increased inflation, particularly in food prices, necessitating a shift towards limiting imports and promoting local production. Capacity building for local farmers and industries, supported by international agencies, is crucial for enhancing the quality and competitiveness of local products. The recent Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) event served as a catalyst for investment in the country, and the government is implementing tax incentives, import waivers, and duties to attract foreign direct investment. Challenges such as the cost of electricity production and finance remain, but efforts to integrate solar energy and assure affordable electricity are underway. While poverty rates have shown some improvement, with about 43 percent of the population living in poverty compared to 48 percent previously, the average Gambian, especially in rural areas, is facing increased hardship due to high inflation and cost of living challenges. The government is working on reforms to address these issues and enhance resource mobilization. Secka highlighted the importance of expanding the private sector, creating a conducive business environment, and providing necessary skills and resources to drive job creation and economic growth. By reducing taxes, implementing positive policies, and ensuring access to essential services like electricity and finance, the government aims to improve the economic outlook and living standards for all Gambians.