André Guichaoua | Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
The multi-party systems established in Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia in the early 1990s have endured despite electoral violence. But democratic hopes have been dashed or perverted throughout the rest of the region. The governments built on the ruins of the civil wars in Angola, Burundi, the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Uganda and Rwanda have all relied on armed political groups to stay in power.
From June 2015 to August 2017 an uninterrupted series of general elections took place in Central and East Africa. Those in Burundi (2015)and the DRC (initially set for 2016) were expected to be the most problematic. In both the incumbent presidents were seeking to extend their mandates beyond a second term. In the Congo, Uganda and Kenya, the risk of violent clashes was palpable.
The ruling regimes were not only dated, but worse for wear. At the time of the elections, the presidents of Angola (José Eduardo Dos Santos), the Congo (Denis Sassou N&#8217;Guesso) and Uganda (Yoweri Museveni), all members of the revolutionary or progressive New Generation of African leaders, were all in their seventies and had been in power for 30 or more years. The Presidents of Rwanda (Paul Kagamé), the DRC (Joseph Kabila) and Burundi (Pierre Nkurunziza), having served terms of 21, 14 and 10 years respectively, took steps to change their countries’ constitution to seek a third term.
Despite the bleak regional outlook and contagious scepticism among voters, these pious “democratic” rituals have become critical events over the past 20 years. This is true even in the most authoritarian countries where so much is predetermined. From the parties in the running to the authorised candidates and even the results.
As artificial as they may be, these rites still represent a risk for those in power. Rulers need expert skill to ensure both maximum control over their institutions and demonstrations of love from their people. Consequently, the outcome of the race – between increasingly artful electoral manipulation and limitless possible manifestations of democratic expression – is never entirely certain.
From Kinshasa to Kampala, from Brazzaville to Luanda and Bujumbura, courageous dissenters have organised numerous protests, usually with the approval – and sometimes active support – of the general population. These protests express the frustrations and expectations of a generation fed up with regimes clinging to power and responding to growing disillusion with increasing authoritarianism.
The ruling parties have, on the whole, proved themselves highly resourceful and resilient against the desire for change. Their victory has been comprehensive. Only Kenya is the exception: a second vote is set for October 26 following the Supreme Court’s surprise decision to invalidate the election results. In the DRC, Joseph Kabila’s delaying tacticshave so far allowed him to remain in power. And while Dos Santos eventually withdrew his candidature due to illness, the election of his chosen successor has ensured power in Angola remains in his faction’s hands.
<h2>In power until 2034</h2>
The string of Central and East African elections got off to a bad start. In April 2015, the president of Burundi controversially sought a third term in office. Although devastated by 10 years of internal strife, Burundi had become a symbol of peaceful transition in the region. Three months of tactical manoeuvring and brutal repression were required to bring victory to the incumbent president. This pushed the country back to the brink of civil war and further plunged it down the ranks of the world’s poorest countries.
The resulting crisis and the violent response by this relatively inexperienced president threw discredit on other outgoing presidents in the region, all flagrant repeat offenders. They were forced to up their game.
In February 2016, Museveni took office for the fifth time in Uganda amid relative calm. In March, in a tenser national atmosphere, Congolese president Denis Sassou-Nguesso started on the first of the three extra terms allowed by the recent constitutional reform. He could still be in power in 2031, at nearly 90 years of age.
Not to be outdone, Rwandan President Paul Kagame presided over a constitutional referendum in 2015 enabling him to remain in power until 2034. The reform was approved by 98% of voters, with a voter turnout of more than 98%.
Overall, pending the outcomes in Kenya and DRC, each of the self-proclaimed candidates who won the recent bout of electoral contests can boast enviable popular mandates, and even landslide victories.
<h2>Every leader for themselves</h2>
In the eyes of these leaders their longevity, and that of their counterparts in the region, constitutes in and of itself a justification for remaining power.
Their relations, alliances and conflicts were carved out in a shared past, marked by civil wars and fiercely violent regional clashes. Widespread structural insecurity plagues the entire region as a result. The insecurity is fuelled by governments’ failure to lay down formal, mutually beneficial, political frameworks for cooperation and regional integration. Yet such frameworks would allow them to develop the human resources and agricultural and mining potential of the region in an equitable manner.
In 2013, as part of the UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC, African Intervention Brigades were authorised to take offensive measures to neutralise the main militia groups in the country’s Eastern region. The Brigades’ main target was the M23, a movement supported by Rwanda and Uganda, according to intelligence later submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC). The return to low-scale warfare is a sign of a regulated joint governance of the instability.
Despite the presence of peacekeeping forces, numerous political and criminal armed groups still control vast, lawless zones. In their own ways, these groups secure the exploitation of natural resources. They supply a lucrative cross-border trade run at the highest levels of government. These activities bring in significant profits for the ruling classes. They also allow countries in the sub-region to export goods they do not produce themselves. And they ensure the continued viability of the various regional and international trade routes towards the Indian Ocean.
At every stage of wealth creation, profits are essentially redistributed according to private interests. It is therefore easy to understand why each head of state believes themselves best placed to serve both national and personal interests, and the interests of the political-ethnic groups they represent.
<h2>The price of longevity</h2>
When they came to power, the new generation of leaders from the Great Horn of Africa embodied the new ideal of “good governance”. They were “strong men” at the head of “strong and sustainable democracies”, ensuring the order and security necessary for development.
During the course of these elections, none of these so-called democrats, so regularly and resoundingly “elected” by their citizens, had any thoughts of retirement. Setting aside Kabila, whose fate is still undecided, at least two of them, in Burundi and Uganda, had no qualms about changing their country’s constitution to ensure their own reelection.
But in a region of considerable wealth, it’s by no means certain that government can indefinitely be determined by the life expectancy of leaders who are still incapable of developing the regional cooperative frameworks that would ensure peace, security and prosperity for their citizens.

Elections in Africa: democratic rituals matter even though the outlook is bleak

Stephen Chan | SOAS, University of London
Kenya’s recently annulled elections will soon be re-run, but the long-term questions they raised about election management are still unanswered. The spotlight is on the work of international observer teams, but there are also much wider questions of electoral capacity – problems that extend to the top of the African Union, and thence across the whole continent.
African democracies are in the process of co-ordinating a generation jump in applied technology. So far, they have actually done a remarkable job by global standards. After all, something like electronic voting is still not used in the UK, where people in raincoats wait patiently while someone with a pencil draws a line through their name on a paper spreadsheet. The rain-sodden voter drips into the polling booth and makes a choice, casts their vote with a pencil on a sheet of paper, and shuffles outside again while putting up an ineffectual umbrella. Nothing has changed for 100 years.
It’s Africa that has led the way – and the West isn’t the place to look for immediate answers for all the problems of running a 21st-century election. One such problem is the use of multiple forms of electronic voting. Voter identification by electronic means is given priority in Nigeria, but even there, it’s not implemented consistently: there are different systems provided by different companies, all submitting tenders on a competitive basis.
The African Union needs to devise a standard set of requirements and attributes for electronic voting across the continent. It’s no longer enough to have a protocol that says paper votes have to be placed into clear plastic ballot boxes. But the African Union has fallen behind. Its previous head, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, was hardly technologically minded; in fact, her successor has apparently stressed the commission urgently needs an email system fit for purpose.
Dlamini-Zuma has now returned to line up for the presidency of her home country, South Africa, whose cabinet is renowned for its technological illiteracy. There are very few images of its current president, Jacob Zuma, working on a laptop or PC, and possibly none of him actually pressing the keys. (His next door neighbour, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, has seemingly never been pictured with a laptop at all.)
But if the presidents might have trouble sending simple emails, the thousands of local observers at each election will need special training of the sort never attempted before. They need to know not just how the system works, but how it can be made not to work – or at least, to work in ways that do not reflect the electorate’s will. Only after that does the question of international observer capacity come into play.
<h2>Mastering the system</h2>
It’s fair to say that although EU observers to Kenya were deployed far in advance of the election and had good geographical coverage, the team was not replete with electronic expertise. And it’s not as if there was no advance knowledge that this would be an electronic election.
Well before the elections began and before the EU observer team was deployed, senior members of both the EU team and the Kenyan opposition were given access to a detailed paper I prepared on the problems of electronic observation. And there was ample evidence from the 2015 Nigerian elections that these things could be bumpy rides. To be fair, electoral commissions need to upgrade their capacities as well; whatever happened in Kenya, whether wicked or incompetent, it was clear electoral officials were not on top of their game, unlike their Nigerian counterparts, who managed to resolve their problems in the end.
Electoral commissions need to open up all stages of the electronic process to knowledgeable observers, and especially the verification stage. This is where subtle algorithmic adjustments can be inserted to preserve close parity between voting patterns on the ground and “verified” results that “just” deliver very narrow victories to a ruling party.
At least electronic cheating can only really work persuasively in close elections. The days of 90% victories are almost (if not quite) over, but they will be followed a rash of elections “won” by about 2%. Margins of about 4%, as in the Kenyan elections, will have to be open to expert interrogation. As it turned out, Kenya’s elections were annulled on grounds of non-electronic irregularities, but neither the opposition nor the electoral commission seemed able to make sustained cases for or against electronic abuse.
Still, it is Africa that has come almost of age in electronic and digital voting. The West’s elections look like Sony Walkmans in the age of the smartphone. Even that comparison might be a bit flattering: in the UK, going to vote is like cranking up an LP on a turntable to 78rpm. Let’s hope Africa’s new leaders and technocrats will make the generational jump more smoothly in the future, and keep showing the creaky old West the way.

Africa leads the way in election technology, but there’s a long way to go

John Ndiso | NAIROBI
Kenya&#8217;s electoral body said on Tuesday it had removed a senior official from his post over a delay in preparing ballot papers for elections due in August.
Lawy Aura, the director of procurement, will now be reassigned to another department, said Andrew Limo, a spokesman for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Aura was in charge of acquiring voting materials and equipment for the coming elections.
<blockquote>&#8220;We are addressing the delayed sourcing of ballot papers,&#8221; IEBC said on its Twitter. Limo would not comment on how Aura&#8217;s removal would affect preparations for the voting.</blockquote>
The Aug. 8 elections are expected to be closely contested, with some 13,000 people seeking office at the national and local levels. President Uhuru Kenyatta is running for a second and final term, with opposition leader Raila Odinga his main challenger.
Preparations for the voting are being closely watched, especially by the opposition, which disputed the outcome of the previous two elections.
In October, previous commissioners resigned after months of protests by the opposition, which had accused the body of bias that made it unfit to oversee elections.
&#8220;It sends a very strong signal, because this is someone who must have done all the planning for this particular exercise and following through timelines that had been set,&#8221; Mulle Musau, the national coordinator of he Election Observation Group, told Reuters.
&#8220;When you remove them at this particular time, then you are nearly throwing things into disarray, because you are leaving a new person to take charge with less that 60 days to the election.&#8221;
The last elections, in 2013, were largely peaceful, but the country is still haunted by the violence that followed the disputed 2007 presidential poll, when political protests rapidly turned into ethnic bloodletting. More than 1,200 people were killed and 600,000 fled their homes.
(Reporting by John Ndiso; Editing by George Obulutsa, Larry King)

Kenyan election body removes official over ballot delays

Ed Stoddard  JOHANNESBURG
South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, seen as a top contender to lead the ruling ANC into 2019 general elections, said on Sunday that the country must not become a &#8220;mafia state&#8221; as he admitted his party had become associated with corruption.
Ramaphosa&#8217;s comments were among the strongest he has made on governance as the race heats up to replace President Jacob Zuma, whose administration has been hit by scandals and missteps, prompting street protests and calls for him to resign or be removed.
In televised remarks at an event in the platinum mining town of Rustenburg organised by the South African Communist Party (SACP), Ramaphosa responded to a warning this week from the influential South African Council of Churches that graft is turning South Africa into a mafia state.
<blockquote>&#8220;If we as the ANC are to counter this grave threat, if the ANC is to recover its leadership role in society, then it is absolutely imperative that we act with urgency and purpose and make sure that we never become a mafia state,&#8221; Ramaphosa said.
&#8220;Because once we become a mafia state all the wheels have come off,&#8221; said Ramaphosa, whose delivery was at times passionate, a marked contrast to his normally reserved manner.</blockquote>
The SACP setting was a pointed one as the party is a key political ally of the ANC and has called for Zuma to resign.
Relations between Zuma and Ramaphosa, 64, a former trade union organiser who led negotiations to end white rule in 1994, have become increasingly strained, according to local media reports.
Zuma has consistently denied allegations of corruption leveled against him, his government and some associates, and branded protesters calling for his resignation &#8220;racist&#8221;.
Clad in a leather jacket bearing the ANC&#8217;s black, green and gold colours, Ramaphosa said the party was saddled with an image problem when it came to corruption.
&#8220;In the public mind, the ANC and its government are increasingly associated, fairly or unfairly, with wrong things that the public continues to see us doing. Like corruption, like pursuing narrow personal enrichment,&#8221; he said.
Ramaphosa also said that he had met with ratings agency Moody&#8217;s on Friday and their view was that the ANC was on the verge of a split. He said he assured them that would not happen.
Both S&amp;P Global Ratings and Fitch downgraded South Africa&#8217;s credit rating to below investment grade in April after Zuma fired respected former Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, a move Ramaphosa opposed and triggered nationwide unrest.
Zuma is to step down as head of the ANC in December but can remain head of state until the 2019 elections. He has signaled his preference that his ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a former cabinet minister and head of the African Union, replace him.
(Editing by Richard Lough)
&nbsp;

Deputy President Ramaphosa says South Africa must avoid “mafia state” fate

<div class="storify"><iframe loading="lazy" src="//storify.com/cnbcafrica/opposition-parties-march-to-concourt-to-fight-for-/embed?border=false" width="100%" height="750" frameborder="no"></iframe><script src="//storify.com/cnbcafrica/opposition-parties-march-to-concourt-to-fight-for-.js?border=false"></script><noscript>[<a href="//storify.com/cnbcafrica/opposition-parties-march-to-concourt-to-fight-for-" target="_blank">View the story &#8220;LIVE: Opposition parties in South Africa march to #ConCourt to fight for a #SecretBallot&#8221; on Storify</a>]</noscript></div>

LIVE: Opposition parties in South Africa march to #ConCourt to fight for a #SecretBallot

Duncan Miriri | NAIROBI
Kenya&#8217;s main opposition alliance said on Thursday it had chosen veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga as its candidate for a presidential election scheduled for August 8.
Odinga, 72, will face off against President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is running for a second and final five-year term. The two men were the main contenders in the last election in 2013.
(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; editing by John Stonestreet)

Kenya’s opposition alliance picks Odinga as presidential candidate

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta approved a law on Monday requiring back up plans for an August election if electronic voting systems fail, despite fierce opposition from rivals who say any manual arrangements will open the ballot to rigging.
Veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga disputed the result of the 2013 race, which he lost to Kenyatta after electronic voter identification and other election systems collapsed. He has led opposition to the new law.
The build-up to the 2017 vote has already been marred by protests and clashes with police that led to at least four deaths. Last year&#8217;s demonstrations were sparked by a row over who sat on a committee overseeing the conduct of the election. The government agreed to replace the commissioners in a deal with the opposition.
Odinga has tried and failed to win the presidency in three previous elections, including in 2013 and 2007 when Odinga said the poll was rigged and about 1,200 people were killed in ethnic fuelled violence.
The presidential office said in a statement that Kenyatta had &#8220;assented to the Elections Laws (Amendment) Bill 2016 that allows a back-up mechanism to the electronic voting method.&#8221;
This allows the electoral oversight committee to put in place &#8220;a complementary mechanism for identification of voters and transmission of elections results&#8221; if electronic voting fails.
It did not specifically mention a &#8220;manual&#8221; system, but the statement said any complementary arrangement had to be &#8220;simple, accurate, verifiable, secure, accountable and transparent.&#8221;
The opposition has said the use of manual systems in past votes was used to rig voting lists and other aspects of elections. It has warned of &#8220;mass action&#8221; if a manual system is used again, without specifying what that would entail.
Opposition politicians have planned a meeting on Wednesday to discuss what steps to take over the law.
The government has promised a free and fair vote, and has dismissed charges of abuses in previous votes.﻿

Kenyan president signs election amendments law despite rigging fears

Seconds after the chairman of Gambia&#8217;s electoral commission read out the poll results that ended President Yahya Jammeh&#8217;s 22-year rule to reporters, a policeman left the building, cheering and clapping his hands in the air.
This celebration of victory in last week&#8217;s election for Adama Barrow, a property developer with no previous political experience, drew a rebuke from a fellow officer who reminded the policeman he was in uniform.
&#8220;Adama Barrow is my new uniform,&#8221; he retorted.
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The apparently minor incident pointed to shifting allegiances within the security forces that left Jammeh with little choice but to step aside.
Later that day, the leader who once said he could rule the tiny West African country for &#8220;a billion years&#8221; and who had crushed numerous coup attempts, stunned viewers by calling Barrow to concede defeat on state TV. 
The decision by the quirky but widely feared Jammeh to accept defeat in the Dec. 1 election has been hailed as a victory for democracy on a continent where veteran rulers have clung to power by methods ranging from legal shenanigans and simple cheating to brute force.
But it was the security forces who made clear to Jammeh that he would have to hand power next month to Barrow, a former security guard in a north London discount store.
According to political and security sources, the morning after voting &#8211; but before the Independent Electoral Commission announced the results &#8211; the heads of the army, police and National Intelligence Agency met Jammeh at his office.
&#8220;He was advised by them that he should be ready to officially concede defeat,&#8221; said Alhagie Darboe, spokesman for the leading party in Barrow&#8217;s coalition, citing one of Jammeh&#8217;s ministers.
Jammeh appeared ready to take their advice. &#8220;After the meeting, he told his ministers: &#8216;You will be jobless in January&#8217;,&#8221; a security source told Reuters.
An aide then informed the electoral commission that he would accept his loss. &#8220;Even before the (results) announcement he wanted to concede defeat,&#8221; commission chairman Alieu Momar Njai told Reuters.
So, wearing white robes and looking almost cheerful, Jammeh took to television to announce his retirement from politics. &#8220;I will be a farmer,&#8221; he said, his long official title &#8211; H.E. Sheikh Prof. Dr. Alh. Yahya AJJ Jammeh Babili Mansa &#8211; stretching across the width of the screen.
Analysts had weighed the risk that he would instead dig in and order his troops to crush dissent, as they did at a student protest in 2000. Some opposition members had hired bodyguards and spent election night in safehouses awaiting the results.
Jammeh, who along with many of his closest allies in the army is from the Jola ethnic minority, had previously vowed to crush opposition among the larger Madinka group.
But in the end, the security forces acted to prevent the kind of post-election bloodshed that hit Burundi in 2015-16.
Army head General Ousman Badjie declined to comment on the meeting, but he told Reuters: &#8220;I am just here to keep the country safe and stable. I am here for the Gambian people, I am not a politician.&#8221;
Badjie has pledged allegiance to Barrow, the president-elect&#8217;s spokeswoman said. [nL5N1E244C]
 
&#8220;NOT THE BAD GUYS&#8221;
Gambians &#8211; who have lived for so many years in a virtual police state and never known a peaceful transfer of power since independence from Britain in 1965 &#8211; exploded with joy and celebrated the election result for days.
Wearing yellow &#8220;Fear No More&#8221; T-shirts, they cheered and banged drums atop vans in the capital Banjul, delighting many European tourists there for winter sun.
Officers joined them or honked at revellers following the elections when Gambians had cast ballots by dropping marbles into coloured drums representing each of the candidates. Results from polling stations next to barracks, where many soldiers had voted in uniform, showed a Barrow victory.
Diplomats say they would have looked to neighbour Senegal, which entirely surrounds the riverside nation and shares linguistic and ethnic ties, to intervene had violence broken out &#8211; as it did in 1981 during a coup.
Analysts say that the repression of Jammeh&#8217;s political opponents had backfired, helping a medley of opposition parties to rally behind a single leader for the first time, with Barrow eking out a victory by fewer than 20,000 votes.
Some prisoners, however, were freed from the Mile 2 prison near Banjul in a surprise gesture last year, including many former top military brass accused of treason.
&#8220;The soldiers are not the bad guys. They have been made bad by his orders,&#8221; said Jaina Ba Jetta, whose father was jailed for years in Mile 2 for &#8220;security reasons&#8221; and now lives in exile.
&#8220;There is constant fear, no security of tenure and everyone in the army is fed up,&#8221; said Francis Mendy from the Gambia office of West African peacebuilding body WANEP.
Even had they wanted to, it would have been hard for officers to seize power themselves on Dec. 1 because of a deliberate &#8220;divide and rule&#8221; strategy with armouries broken up into small depots, he added.
Officials from Barrow&#8217;s coalition say that modernising Gambia&#8217;s bloated army, whose checkpoints are dotted across the capital, will be among the priorities.
&#8220;The military needs to become a highly trained force that shows loyalty to the people and the constitution,&#8221; said Mai Ahmad Fatty, the head of Barrow&#8217;s transition team.﻿

How Gambia's top brass turned on long-ruling Jammeh

Long queues formed at voting stations in Ghana on Wednesday as President John Mahama ran for a second and final term against a backdrop of an economy that has slowed sharply since he took power.
There have been few opinion polls but most political analysts say the vote could be close, with a strong challenge from opposition leader and former foreign minister Nana Akufo-Addo.
Ghana is held up a beacon of democracy in West Africa with a track record of peaceful elections. Twice since 2000 voters have rejected the government of the day.
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Some voters queued overnight to cast their ballots in a show of enthusiasm for a hotly-contested vote.
&#8220;I needed to register the strong feeling I have about this country with my thumb and the least I could do was to sacrifice sleep,&#8221; said Comfort Laryea, 78, who waited to vote since 4 a.m. (0400 GMT) in the Teshie suburb of the capital. She declined to say who she would vote for.
For years, Ghana had one of Africa&#8217;s most dynamic economies but it hit the buffers in 2014 due to lower global prices for its gold, oil and cocoa exports and a fiscal crisis that featured a spike in the budget deficit and elevated inflation.
The currency also halved in value since 2014, though it has largely stabilized this year. The government is mid-way through a $918 million International Monetary Fund programme to restore economic stability.
The ruling National Democratic Congress argues that, despite the difficulties, Ghana is poised for a return to growth above 8 percent and it has improved roads, schools and hospitals.
The opposition New Patriotic Party says the government has mismanaged the economy and squandered the country&#8217;s resources causing hardship and a rise in unemployment.
Security forces have deployed in strength and political parties who have sent thousands of agents to the country&#8217;s 29,000 polling stations to spot any irregularities.
The opposition challenged the 2012 election result leading to an eight-month Supreme Court case most said reinforced the country&#8217;s democracy.
The opposition says it has little faith in the electoral commission and its first-time commissioner Charlotte Osei.
There are 15.7 million registered voters in the country of 26 million and 275 parliamentary seats are also being contested. Five other candidates are also contesting the presidency, though they are considered to have little chance of victory.﻿

voting

Elections in Africa: democratic rituals matter even though the outlook is bleak

Africa leads the way in election technology, but there’s a long way to go

Kenyan election body removes official over ballot delays

Deputy President Ramaphosa says South Africa must avoid “mafia state” fate

LIVE: Opposition parties in South Africa march to #ConCourt to fight for a #SecretBallot

Kenya’s opposition alliance picks Odinga as presidential candidate

Kenyan president signs election amendments law despite rigging fears

How Gambia's top brass turned on long-ruling Jammeh

Voting begins in Ghana's election as Mahama runs for second term

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voting

Elections in Africa: democratic rituals matter even though the outlook is bleak

Africa leads the way in election technology, but there’s a long way to go

Kenyan election body removes official over ballot delays

Deputy President Ramaphosa says South Africa must avoid “mafia state” fate

LIVE: Opposition parties in South Africa march to #ConCourt to fight for a #SecretBallot

Kenya’s opposition alliance picks Odinga as presidential candidate

Kenyan president signs election amendments law despite rigging fears

How Gambia's top brass turned on long-ruling Jammeh

Voting begins in Ghana's election as Mahama runs for second term

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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