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Dr. Charles Bucagu, Deputy Director General of Rwanda Agriculture Board (RAB) discusses mechanisms to make the agriculture sector attractive for investment amid financial constraints, weather and more. He joins CNBC Africa for more.

Attracting investment in Rwanda’s agricultural sector

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<figure><img decoding="async" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230006/original/file-20180731-136661-xiq3dy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;rect=1%2C133%2C664%2C674&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="File 20180731 136661 xiq3dy.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1" /><figcaption>This sign could be interpreted literally. 
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gregory-breetzke-523227">Gregory Breetzke</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
Over the past few decades there has been a growing <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237950620_Homicide_in_Sao_Paulo_Brazil_Assessing_spatial-temporal_and_weather_variations">worldwide interest</a> in examining the relationship <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916510397758">between weather and various types of crime</a>. Most research in this area has however produced inconsistent and often paradoxical results. For example, some studies have found <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/44/2/276/562930">no seasonal fluctuations</a> in crime. Others have however found <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916510397758">an increase in crimes</a> during either the colder winter months or warmer summer months.
Very little is known, however, about how the magnitude and spatial distribution of criminal activity in South Africa is affected by climatic conditions. So we set out <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1498384">to determine</a> whether there is an association between criminal activity and climate in the country’s capital city, Tshwane.
We were specifically interested in whether the magnitude of crime changes depending on extreme weather conditions, notably temperature and rainfall. In other words: do extremely hot days or high-rainfall days experience higher or lower rates of violent, property or sexual crime?
We also wanted to know whether the spatial distribution of violent, property or sexual crime changes depending on the type of extreme weather event. Simply put, does crime occur in different places on extremely cold days than it does on really hot ones?
<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2018.1498384">Our results</a> indicate a strong association between temperature and criminal activity. That is, as the temperature goes up, so too, does crime. There’s a less significant association between rainfall and crime. The spatial distributions of all types of crime are found to differ significantly depending on the type of weather extreme observed.
The results could help law enforcement agencies better understand how weather affects crime patterns in South Africa’s urban areas and develop and implement appropriate crime prevention measures.
<h2>Diving into data</h2>
The notion that there’s a relationship between criminal activity and climate is nothing new. Over a century ago Belgian sociologist and scholar Adolphe Quételet <a href="https://archive.org/details/treatiseonmandev00quet">observed</a> that crimes against people reach a maximum during the warmer summer months, while crimes against property reached a peak during winter.
He <a href="http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780195396607/obo-9780195396607-0130.xml">later developed</a> the temperature-aggression theory, which provides a psychological explanation for the increase in crime during warmer months. It suggests that warmer temperatures will lead to an increase in an individual’s frustration and discomfort levels and so increase the likelihood of aggression. This could in turn result in interpersonal crimes such as assault.
We used data and statistical analysis to find an association – if any – between extreme weather conditions and crime in the nation’s capital, Tshwane. We obtained climate data for the city from the South African Weather Service for a 5-year period from September 2001 to the end of August 2006.
Next, we calculated daily average temperatures before extracting the ten hottest for each year of the five years. That gave us a dataset of 50 days. The process was repeated for low-temperature days, high-rainfall days, no-rainfall days and random-rainfall days.
Then came crime data for the same period. We obtained this from the South African Police Services’ Crime and Information Analysis Centre. The data included the geographical location of each crime; the date and time of day that each crime was committed; and the specific type of crime committed. A total of 1,361,220 crimes were reported in the five-year period across 32 different categories. All crime was then categorised into either violent, sexual or property crimes before we calculated a count of crime per type per day.
Next, we used a recently developed <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622809000046">spatial point pattern test</a> to determine whether the spatial distribution of crime on the three types of days – very hot, very cold and rainy – changes. That is, does the spatial patterning of crime in Tshwane change depending on certain rainfall and temperature conditions?
<h2>What we found</h2>
Our findings demonstrate that the amount of violent, sexual and property crime in the city of Tshwane is significantly affected by temperature and, to a lesser extent, rainfall.
The magnitude of violent, sexual and property crime was higher on hot days compared to cold or random temperature days. Violent crimes increased by 50% on hot days compared to very cold days. Sexual crimes increased by 41% and property crime by 12%. Violent and sexual crimes in Tshwane also decreased on high-rainfall days. Surprisingly, property crime was found to increase slightly on heavy rainfall days, though only by 2%.
Second, the spatial distribution of violent and property crime was found to differ on days by temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable change in the way that particularly violent and property crime is spatially distributed in Tshwane depending on the weather conditions. We also found that the distribution of sexual crime did not seem to differ significantly by temperature or rainfall.
More research is needed to confirm these findings and to determine if the results can be generalised to other urban areas in South Africa.
<h2>Applications</h2>
The results of this research have the potential to inform how law enforcement agencies and other relevant stakeholders tackle crime in South Africa.
Our findings can be used to identify communities that are more prone to crime under certain meteorological conditions and allow stakeholders to target these neighbourhoods and plan interventions. It also allows stakeholders to adequately develop and implement suitable intervention practices in similar at-risk neighbourhoods.
For the police and others responsible for specifically addressing long-term solutions to crime, crime pattern analysis can utilise the understanding of how weather events influence crime patterning and provide measures to take appropriate action.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gregory-breetzke-523227">Gregory Breetzke</a>, Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-pretoria-1645">University of Pretoria</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-temperatures-rise-so-do-crime-rates-evidence-from-south-africa-100850">original article</a>.

Here’s how weather conditions impact crime rates in South Africa

ABIDJAN (Reuters) &#8211; Abundant rainfall fell last week in most of Ivory Coast&#8217;s main cocoa growing regions, sparking fears that flooding could hinder harvesting of what is otherwise expected to be a strong mid-crop, farmers said on Monday.
The mid-crop marketing season opened on April 1. The world&#8217;s top cocoa grower is now in its rainy season and heavy downpours are expected over the coming weeks.
&#8220;The soil is very wet. If that continues there will be flooding and we will lose a lot of cocoa,&#8221; said Etienne Yao, who farms on the outskirts of Aboisso in the southeast.
It rained most of the week in the southern region of Divo.
&#8220;We hope there will still be some sunshine, otherwise there will be damage in the plantations,&#8221; said farmer Amadou Diallo.
Regular heavy rain was also reported in the southern regions of Agboville and Tiassale.
In the western region of Soubre, at the heart of the cocoa belt, farmers reported a good mix of two rain showers interspersed with periods of sunshine.
&#8220;Conditions are good and more and more beans are coming out of the bush,&#8221; said Lazare Ake, who farms near Soubre. &#8220;There will be a break in harvesting around a month from now because a lot of pods are ripening at the same time.&#8221;
In the centre-western region of Daloa, which account for about a quarter of national output, farmers reported patchy rainfall and sunny spells.
(Reporting by Loucoumane Coulibaly; Editing by Joe Bavier and David Evans)

Heavy rain in Ivory Coast raises flooding fears in cocoa areas

Rajendra Jadhav |MUMBAI
The price of tea is likely to climb further this year after dry weather slashed production of the commodity in key suppliers India and Kenya, while recent deadly flooding could disrupt shipments from Sri Lanka, another key exporter.
Output in top tea shipper Kenya dropped by over a third from a year ago in the first quarter after drought ravaged parts of the country, while production was down over 16 percent during that period in India, the world&#8217;s biggest black tea producer.
Flooding and landslides in Sri Lanka over the weekend that have killed over 150 people were expected to interfere with tea transportation in the major exporter, although an industry official in the country said the impact on production would be limited.
Stronger prices will help support tea companies such as India&#8217;s McLeod Russel and Goodricke Group Ltd, as well as African producers like Kapchorua Tea Company Ltd and Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd.
&#8220;We are expecting prices to remain firm this year. Already globally prices are up 15 to 20 percent compared to the last year,&#8221; Kamal Baheti, chief financial officer at McLeod Russel, the world&#8217;s biggest tea producing company, told Reuters.
The maximum price of the highest grade of Kenyan tea rose to $3.92 per kg at auction last week, up 22.5 percent from a year ago.
&#8220;We will see a downturn in the amount (of tea) that will come to auction (in Sri Lanka),&#8221; said Rohan Pethiyagoda, chairman of Sri Lanka&#8217;s state-run Tea Board. He added that transportation would be hit as roads were blocked by the flooding and landslides, which he said had killed nine plantation workers.
&#8220;Crops are already down all over the world. It will keep prices firm throughout the year,&#8221; said A N Singh, managing director of Goodricke Group, a producer based in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata.
India&#8217;s production in 2017 is likely to be 15 to 20 million kg lower than last year&#8217;s output of 1.24 billion kg despite rising consumption, said Singh.
BETTER WEATHER?
In Kenya, improved weather could lead to higher production in the second half, Alfred Busolo, director general of the state-run agriculture and food authority, said earlier this month.
&#8220;Kenya is not losing crop anymore, but they have lost already in the past few months. They can&#8217;t recover that in the rest of the year,&#8221; said McLeod Russel&#8217;s Baheti.
A dealer based in Mombassa added that prices would be sustained at current levels and could rise further depending on &#8220;Kenya&#8217;s production in the next few months&#8221;. He declined to be identified as he was not authorised to speak with media.
A Kolkata-based dealer with a global trading firm added that global production needed to recover in the next few months or &#8220;prices could rise above $4.50&#8221;.
India is likely to get normal monsoon rains in 2017.
(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Additional reporting by Ranga Sirilal in COLOMBO; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Drop in India, Kenya tea output brews price rises

Drought conditions associated with an El Nino weather pattern are likely to reoccur in a few months time, the South African government said on Thursday.
&#8220;Recurrence of El Niño drought conditions likely &#8230; The next summer season has increased the likelihood for the development of El Nino conditions which are often associated with drought and water scarcity as seen recently in South Africa,&#8221; the government said in a statement.
The previous El Nino, which faded in May of last year, brought widespread drought to southern Africa, hitting crop production and fuelling inflation across the region while leaving millions in need of food aid. South Africa&#8217;s weather service and global forecasters have predicted that El Nino will form again in the southern hemisphere winter or spring, which falls between July and September.
&#8220;The likelihood has increased from previous assessments and as we near the winter period, these forecasts improve in reliability,&#8221; the government said.
It said the issue had been raised at a meeting on Wednesday of the National Disaster Management Advisory Forum (NDMAF), which coordinates the government&#8217;s response to such events. The forum will meet again on May 11.
If El Nino does return between July or September, it would be the first time it reformed so quickly since the mid-1960s.
El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that occurs every few years, with global consequences. In Africa it often brings excessive rains to the east while the southern cone gets parched.
(Reporting by Ed Stoddard; Editing by Susan Fenton and David Evans)

South Africa could face another El Nino drought soon

Bad weather off the coast of Angola has prevented the berthing of fuel vessels docking at Cabinda and Benguela ports, causing shortages at filling stations and power blackouts, state-energy company Sonangol said.
Sonangol said a lack of coordination between government agencies had also hampered fuel and electricity supplies.
OPEC-member Angola vies with Nigeria as Africa&#8217;s biggest crude oil exporter but has to import its fuel due to a lack of refining capacity.
(Reporting by Herculano Coroado; Writing by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Joe Brock)

Bad weather slows fuel cargo docking in Angola

Cold weather, rains and resilient genetically-modified crops (GMO) have limited the damage caused by an armyworm outbreak in South Africa, the head of Grain SA Jannie de Villiers said on Monday.
Neighbouring countries, such as Zambia and Zimbabwe, who do not grow GMO crops, are suffering larger losses.
&#8220;The worm is a tropical worm, so the cooler weather is not conducive for it to multiply quicker and the wetness is having an effect on its ability of fly,&#8221; De Villiers told Reuters at an agriculture commodities conference.
The provinces of Limpopo and North West in the north of South Africa were most affected by the caterpillars, which spread southward from neighbouring countries after first being detected in Nigeria last year.
Harder to detect and eradicate than its African counterpart, the Central African fall armyworm prefers maize, the staple crop in the region.
Its invasion follows an El Nino-induced drought that scorched the region last year, leaving millions in need of food aid.
&#8220;Currently as we look at the crop we can’t call it a disaster, mainly because of the GMOs and our ability to protect our crops through commercial agriculture,&#8221; said De Villiers.
 
(Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by James Macharia)﻿

Cold weather curbs armyworm outbreak in South Africa

Severe drought conditions are still afflicting most of South Africa and temperatures are expected to remain above normal until mid-summer, which would be around December, the national weather service said on Monday.
In its monthly forecast which looks up to five months ahead, the South African Weather Service also said there was a &#8220;gradual improvement&#8221; in prospects for above-normal rainfall by mid-summer. A scorching drought has hit key crops such as maize, fueling inflation and denting economic growth.﻿

South African summer to be hotter than normal amid drought

South Africa&#8217;s recovery from its worst drought in over century could be stalled as anticipated rain relief from a La Nina weather system remains uncertain, the South African Weather Service said on Monday.
An earlier prediction of a moderate La Nina, which is associated with higher rainfall, for the spring/summer season between September and February, had eased farmers&#8217; drought fears. But the South African Weather Service said it was uncertain how much rain there would be.
An El Nino weather pattern which ended in May triggered drought conditions across southern Africa. South African temperatures reached historic peaks and 2015 was the driest year since records began in 1904.
South Africa&#8217;s maize crop was decimated with current forecasts pointing to a 26.6 percent lower harvest this year due to the severe drought. White maize, the food staple, doubled in price last year, helping to fuel inflation. 
Indian Ocean conditions may not be conducive for rainfall during spring with most climate models indicating a marginal prospect of above normal rainfall conditions toward early summer, the Weather Service said.
&#8220;If we have got the current conditions prevailing we are most likely to have high temperatures going forward,&#8221; said Nhlonipho Nhlabatsi, a senior research manager with the Weather Service.
Most parts of South Africa are still experiencing drought conditions and water stress despite the strong El Nino dissipating, the Weather Service said.
&#8220;The recovery of South Africa from drought conditions may take some time, depending on rainfall and temperature conditions over the coming spring through summer 2016/17 season,&#8221; it added.
 
(Editing by Adrian Croft)﻿
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weather

Attracting investment in Rwanda’s agricultural sector

Here’s how weather conditions impact crime rates in South Africa

Heavy rain in Ivory Coast raises flooding fears in cocoa areas

Drop in India, Kenya tea output brews price rises

South Africa could face another El Nino drought soon

Bad weather slows fuel cargo docking in Angola

Cold weather curbs armyworm outbreak in South Africa

South African summer to be hotter than normal amid drought

South Africa's drought recovery could be stalled by uncertain rain prospects

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Advertise With Us

weather

Attracting investment in Rwanda’s agricultural sector

Here’s how weather conditions impact crime rates in South Africa

Heavy rain in Ivory Coast raises flooding fears in cocoa areas

Drop in India, Kenya tea output brews price rises

South Africa could face another El Nino drought soon

Bad weather slows fuel cargo docking in Angola

Cold weather curbs armyworm outbreak in South Africa

South African summer to be hotter than normal amid drought

South Africa's drought recovery could be stalled by uncertain rain prospects

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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