<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-hamill-254226">By James Hamill</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-leicester-1053">University of Leicester</a>
Zimbabwe’s new President <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876">Emmerson Mnangagwa</a> has been cautiously welcomed with the hope that he will place Zimbabwe on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/mnangagwa-has-the-capacity-to-focus-on-the-new-zimbabwe-but-will-he-88254">more democratic trajectory</a>. He has spoken of a <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/can-emmerson-mnangagwa-a-mugabe-ally-bring-change-to-zimbabwe-12134023">new democracy “unfolding”</a> in Zimbabwe.
But this is wishful thinking.
There are three major barriers to a decisive break from the corrupt and dysfunctional political system that has been playing out in Zimbabwe: the ruling <a href="http://www.zanupf.org.zw/">Zanu-PF</a>, its president and what’s been their main sustainer – the military.
None would want to oversee real change because facilitating democratic rule with real contestation for power would mean running the risk of electoral defeat. This would endanger the networks of self enrichment that have been put in place over decades.
Instead, the next few months will see Zanu-PF, Mnangagwa and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe-beware-the-military-is-looking-after-its-own-interests-not-democracy-87712">military</a> continue to block democracy as they seek to hold onto the power.
<h2>The nature of Zanu-PF</h2>
Zanu-PF presents a formidable obstacle to democratic progress in the country. Zimbabwe has maintained the outward appearance of a multiparty democracy since <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/4/newsid_2515000/2515145.stm">independence in 1980</a>. But it’s effectively been a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/towards-the-oneparty-state-in-zimbabwe-a-study-in-african-political-thought/BD356807617492EBE85877DB6CD815C7">one-party dictatorship</a>.
The party brings a zero-sum game mindset to politics: it must always prevail, and its <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/06/09/bullets-each-you/state-sponsored-violence-zimbabwes-march-29-elections">opponents must be crushed</a> rather than accommodated. Opposition parties formally exist but they have not been allowed to win an election. Should such a possibility arise – as it did in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-are-elections-really-rigged-mr-trump-consult-robert-mugabe-68440">2002, 2008 and 2013</a> – elections will be rigged to preserve the status quo.
Zanu-PF provides the most egregious example of the culture of exceptionalism which has characterised the liberation party in power. These include:
<ul>
<li>the belief that its entitled to rule indefinitely,</li>
<li>its refusal to view itself as an ordinary political party,</li>
<li>its conflating of party and state, and</li>
<li>its demonising of other parties as ‘enemies of liberation’ seeking to restore colonialism or white minority rule.</li>
</ul>
The way in which Zanu-PF has colonised the state over almost four decades means that there is a vast web of <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057070.2013.862100?src=recsys">patronage networks</a> that have been entrenched to facilitate the looting of the state’s resources. Democratic change and clean government pose a mortal threat to these networks and such privileges are unlikely to be surrendered without intense resistance.
<h2>The new president</h2>
Mnangagwa’s ominous record makes it difficult to build a persuasive case that he represents a new beginning.
He served as <a href="https://theconversation.com/mnangagwa-has-the-capacity-to-focus-on-the-new-zimbabwe-but-will-he-88254">Mugabe’s “chief enforcer”</a> until November 2017. He was pivotal to the collapse of the rule of law and the implosion of the Zimbabwean economy. And he has been a central player in the <a href="https://www.ushmm.org/m/pdfs/20161116-Zimbabwe-Early-Warning-Report.pdf">gross human rights abuses</a> that have characterised Zanu-PF rule. This includes the killings in <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=zi-tWekXbD8C&amp;pg=PA19&amp;lpg=PA19&amp;dq=%22the+early+rain+which+washes+away+the+chaff+before+the+spring+rains%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=dWX2SIUj7r&amp;sig=0aDLpmmQfN93e_RNJuKcBmGGEYI&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwioi-joj6LWAhWE7hoKHRF_C7wQ6AEIOTAD#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20early%20rain%20which%20washes%20away%20the%20chaff%20before%20the%20spring%20rains%22&amp;f=false">Matabeleland killings</a> in the 1980s. This is a past for which he has refused to <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-11-27-op-ed-mnangagwa-and-the-gukurahundi-fact-and-fiction/#.WjFR4Ux2trQ">acknowledge any responsibility</a>.
His more conciliatory language has not matched his actions. After becoming president he appointed an administration of cronies, military hardliners and ‘war veterans’.
The appointments appeared to consolidate the power of the now dominant faction of Zanu-PF: the old guard securocrats who routed Grace Mugabe’s equally malign <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/G40_(Zanu-PF_Faction)">G40 faction</a> through the barrel of a gun rather than democratic processes.
Having waited such a seemingly interminable length of time to land the top job, it is difficult to envisage Mnangagwa now placing his hard earned spoils at the mercy of <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/rdm/politics/2017-11-20-justice-malala-dont-fool-yourself-zimbabwe-wont-be-fixed-by-mugabes-ex-cronies/">a programme of democratisation</a>.
<h2>The military</h2>
The Zimbabwean Defence Force’s role in the removal of the president means that it has secured a place for itself as a privileged political actor and overseer of the entire political system.
The defence force has never been a neutral custodian of constitutional rule. Instead it has always been a highly politicised extension of the ruling party, a party militia in effect.
Previously its role was confined to repressing the ruling party’s opponents and maintaining the party’s dominance. The principle of civilian rule was respected even if this model of civil-military relations failed to meet any reasonable democratic standards. But with the coup, the military crossed a line. They determined the outcome of power struggles within the ruling party itself.
In the same way that the military has been politicised, the political system has been heavily militarised. This can be seen in the several key military veterans who have been appointed to the cabinet as well as Mnangagwa being the military’s candidate for the presidency. Essentially this is the civilian face of quasi-military rule in Zimbabwe.
To see the military’s removal of Mugabe as an overriding good ignores the fact that it has no concept of the national interest, or that it views that national interest as synonymous with its own and Zanu-PF’s.What this points to is an effective “barracks democracy” emerging in Zimbabwe. The military has secured a veto over the leadership of the ruling party and over the wider political process. It also reserves the right to reject election results that it does not approve of, or to take action that could prevent such results materialising in the first place.
It is dangerously naïve to expect such a force to help facilitate genuine democratic transition when its entire raison d’etre has been to preserve one-party rule (under a leadership of its choosing), to disable meaningful opposition and to <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2017/09/15/military-looted-diamonds-report/">preserve its own corruption networks</a>.
<h2>Unsettling prospects</h2>
True democratisation – as opposed to merely maintaining the procedural forms of democratic government – is anathema to Zimbabwe’s ruling party, its president and the military.
It is evident that their task is threefold over the next few months. They have to secure support for a measure of liberalisation; arrest political enemies for corruption rather than tackling corruption per se; and provide a smokescreen of a largely vacuous democratic rhetoric.
The hope is that this will be sufficient to secure aid, investment and an endorsement by external donors while virtually nothing changes in the actual power relations inside the country.
Anyone committed to democracy in Zimbabwe -– whether inside or outside the country – should begin mobilising against this project sooner rather than later.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-hamill-254226">James Hamill</a>, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-leicester-1053">University of Leicester</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-three-barriers-blocking-zimbabwes-progress-zanu-pf-mnangagwa-and-the-military-89177">original article</a>.
http://cnbc.africa/news/2017/12/28/zimbabwe-ex-army-boss-sworn-mugabe-gets-diplomats-rights/

Op-ed: The three barriers blocking Zimbabwe’s progress

The army chief who led the bloodless coup that ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule was installed as Zimbabwe’s vice president on Thursday, becoming the most senior of a clutch of military figures to enter government.
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Retired general Constantino Chiwenga’s appearance on state television on Nov. 15 preceded armed soldiers taking to the streets, paving the way for Emmerson Mnangagwa to become president hours later.
Mnangagwa, a former chief lieutenant to Mugabe who has promised to push through economic and political reforms, on Thursday also granted his 93-year-old predecessor full diplomatic status and a staff of 23 under a pension settlement.
The president’s governing ZANU-PF party this month moved to draw a line under the era of Mugabe, who during his decades in power became feared as a despot and presided over economic collapse, by formally expelling the ex-president’s wife Grace and her allies from the organization.
But Mnangagwa, who himself stands accused of participating in repression, has steered clear of acts of retribution against the former president.
Mugabe has been living at his private home in the plush Borrowdale suburb, and the pension entitles him to “payment of a lump sum which is equal or equivalent to the value of the private residence”, according to the official government gazette.
In a statement in the gazette, Mnangagwa said ex-presidents who have served at least one full term &#8211; a category that includes only Mugabe &#8211; were also entitled to six security personnel and a fully furnished office.
Mnangagwa is under pressure from would-be foreign investors, opposition parties and ordinary Zimbabweans to implement reforms.
But he is also looking to maintain a unified ZANU-PF as the dominant political force and keep relations with its powerful military smooth in the run-up to national elections scheduled for next year.
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Mugabe, who built a reputation for extensive international travel during his rule, will also be provided with a diplomatic passport.
Two weeks ago, in first trip outside Zimbabwe since he was removed from office, he visited a hospital in Singapore, apparently for medical checks.
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Reporting by Alfonce Mbizwo; Writing by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by Kevin Liffey and John Stonestreet
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Zimbabwe ex-army boss sworn in as Mugabe gets diplomat’s rights

Retired army chief Constantino Chiwenga and veteran politician Kembo Mohadi will be sworn in as Zimbabwe’s vice presidents on Thursday, state-run Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation said on Wednesday.
<div id="attachment_290718" style="width: 860px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-290718" class="wp-image-290718 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GettyImages-873637260_Zim-Army-Gen_RZ1.jpg" alt="" width="850" height="566" />Zimbabwe Army General Constantino Chiwenga Commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces addresses a media conference held at the Zimbabwean Army Headquarters on November 13, 2017 in Harare. Zimbabwe&#8217;s army chief on November 13 demanded a &#8220;stop&#8221; to the purge in the ruling ZANU-PF party after the sacking of vice president Emmerson Mnangangwa, and warned the military could intervene. / AFP PHOTO / Jekesai NJIKIZANA (Photo credit should read JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images)</div>
The pair, appointed by President Emmerson Mnangagwa, were elevated to similar positions in the ruling ZANU-PF party on Saturday.
Chiwenga retired from the military this month. His appointment was expected as a reward for leading a de facto coup in November that ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule and brought Mnangagwa to power.
It also adds to signs of a consolidation of power for the army since it turned against the 93-year-old Mugabe. Mnangagwa has appointed several senior military officers to his cabinet and the ruling party’s top decision-making body, the Politburo.
Mnangagwa is under pressure from opposition parties and the public to implement political reforms.
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Reporting by Alfonce Mbizwo; Editing by Ed Stoddard and John Stonestreet
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Ex-army boss to be sworn in as Zimbabwe vice president on Thursday

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Through 2017, the East African region has braved through debt, with different restructuring models analysed, policy reform and sector prioritisation, among other macro-economic issues.

Vishal Agarwal on why you should look into Zimbabwe’s consumer sector

The head of Zimbabwe’s military looks set to be appointed vice president as the government said on Monday he would retire pending “redeployment” in what is seen as a reward for leading a de facto coup last month that ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule and brought Emmerson Mnangagwa to power.
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Mnangagwa has said he will fill the two vice presidential posts in the next few days and Constantino Chiwenga is the top contender in a reflection of the army’s consolidation of power since it turned against the 93-year-old Mugabe.
Mnangagwa has appointed several senior military officers to his cabinet and the ruling party’s executive Politburo since he was sworn in as president on Nov. 24. Army Commander Phillip Sibanda will succeed Chiwenga as defense forces chief, a government statement said.
“The appointment of Chiwenga&#8230;, which I think is inevitable, will be a confirmation that the military is a salient factor in the politics of the country,” said Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst at the University of Zimbabwe.
“It has always exercised its influence in a covert manner but now it’s quite overt and this will further consolidate that coalition between the military and the ruling political elite.”
Mnangagwa appointed Major General Edzai Chimonyo, Zimbabwe’s ambassador to Tanzania, to succeed Sibanda as army commander and promoted a number of other senior army officers to major general.
The government also announced the retirement of police chief Augustine Chihuri, an unpopular Mugabe loyalist who it said has been on leave since Dec. 15. Chihuri was accused by rights groups of presiding over crackdowns on dissent and popular protest in the 18 months before Mugabe was overthrown.
Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed in the latter half of Mugabe’s rule, especially after violent farm seizures of thousands of white-owned commercial farms.
Monday’s announcements came hours after army chiefs declared an end to their military intervention and handed back policing to civilian police.
“Normalcy has now returned to our country. It is for this reason that &#8230; we announce the end of Operation Restore Legacy today,” army chief Sibanda said, referring to the name of the intervention which the army said targeted criminals in Mugabe and his wife Grace’s entourage.
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Civic groups have been urging the soldiers to leave the streets since Mnangagwa was sworn in to replace Mugabe as president of the southern African country on Nov. 24.
Mnangagwa is under pressure to revive the economy ahead of elections due next year which he said last Friday may be held sooner than expected. The elections are due by July 2018 but some say they may be as early as March.
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Reporting by Emelia Sithole-Matarise; Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg
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Zimbabwe military chief looks set for vice presidency

Zimbabwe’s new President Emmerson Mnangagwa said on Friday the ruling ZANU-PF party should aim to always compete in elections which are credible, free and fair.
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Mnangagwa, who became leader of the southern African nation last month after the military and ruling ZANU-PF turned against Robert Mugabe who had ruled the country for 37 years, was addressing a special congress.
Mnangagwa is expected to be endorsed by the ruling party as its leader and presidential candidate in elections due in 2018 which the international community will be closely watching.
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Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe, Writing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise; Editing by James Macharia
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Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa says elections must be credible, free and fair

Zimbabwe’s new President Emmerson Mnangagwa on Thursday called for the removal of Western sanctions on his government during a speech to ruling party officials and said elections due in 2018 were nearer than “you expect”.
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Mnangagwa, 75, became leader of the southern African nation last month after the military and ruling ZANU-PF turned against Robert Mugabe who had ruled the country for 37 years and was seen grooming his wife Grace to succeed him.
While the European Union removed sanctions on ZANU-PF officials, members of the military and some government-owned firms in 2014, the United States has kept a travel and economic embargo on several ruling party elites.
“We call for the unconditional lifting of the political and economic sanctions, which have crippled our national development,” Mnangagwa told a meeting of the ZANU-PF central committee in downtown Harare.
“We realize that isolation is not splendid or viable as there is more to gain through solidarity, mutually beneficial partnerships.”
The international community will be closely watching the next elections in 2018, which Mnangagwa said would be free and fair and would be held nearer than most people expect.
The vote is due at the end of July in 2018 but there is talk it can be brought forward as early as March.
“Government will do all in its powers to ensure that the elections are credible, free and fair. These elections are nearer than what you expect,” he said without elaborating.
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Reporting by Emelia Sithole-Matarise; Writing by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by James Macharia
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Zimbabwe’s Mnangagwa calls for end to Western sanctions

The African Export and Import Bank has pledged up to $1.5 billion in new loans and financial guarantees to Zimbabwe in a major boost for new President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government, the bank’s president and chairman said on Tuesday.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-42002 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/harare_-_wikipedia.jpg" alt="Zimbabwe halves 2016 growth forecast to 1.4 percent" width="1365" height="1024" />
Mnangagwa, who took over last month after veteran autocrat Robert Mugabe quit following a de facto military coup, has vowed to focus on reviving the struggling economy and provide jobs in a nation with an unemployment rate exceeding 80 percent.
Afreximbank was only international lender that stood by Zimbabwe throughout Mugabe’s repressive 37-year rule, but its quick announcement of a fresh package of loans and guarantees appeared to be a vote of confidence in the new government.
Cairo-based Afreximbank was a major funder of Zimbabwe while the country was cut off from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank for having defaulted on its debt in 1999.
Bank president and chairman Okey Oramah told reporters after a meeting with Mnangagwa and senior government officials that Afreximbank would provide $150 million to local banks to help them pay for outstanding critical imports.
”We also discussed a number of other areas that involve additional investment from us for something that will be in the order of $1 billion to $1.5 billion that will include certain kinds of guarantees to encourage investors to come to Zimbabwe.
“We&#8230;want to make sure that we support the stabilization of the economy, that means providing liquidity to make sure that the situation where people are rushing everytime to look for cash is dealt with,” said Oramah.
In August, before Mugabe’s ouster, Afreximbank provided $600 million to help Zimbabwe pay for imports and $300 million to allow it to print more “bond notes”, a quasi currency that officially trades a par with the U.S. dollar.
Zimbabwe has a foreign debt of more than $7 billion and in September said it would not be able to pay $1.8 billion in arrears to the World Bank and African Development Bank until economic fundamentals improved.
The southern African nation, which dumped its hyperinflation-hit currency in 2009, is struggling with a severe dollar crunch that has seen banks fail to avail cash to customers while importers struggle to pay for imports.
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Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa promised in a budget speech last week to re-engage with international lenders, curb spending and attract investors to revive the economy.
On Tuesday, Chinamasa described Afreximbank as a “pillar of strength” and said the economy was “in for some very good times”.
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Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; editing by Mark Heinrich
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Afreximbank pledges up to $1.5 BN to post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

HARARE (Reuters) &#8211; Zimbabwe’s former president Robert Mugabe has left the country for medical checks in Singapore, his first foreign travel since the army forced him from office last month, a state security official said on Tuesday.
The 93-year-old, who ruled the southern African nation for 37 years, resigned after the army and his ruling ZANU-PF party turned against him when it became clear that his 52-year-old wife, Grace, was being groomed as his successor.
http://cnbc.africa/news/political/2017/12/04/zimbabwe-swears-first-post-mugabe-cabinet/
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Until recently the world’s oldest head of state, Mugabe had a reputation for extensive and expensive international travel, including regular medical trips to Singapore &#8211; a source of public anger among his impoverished citizens.
He left Harare with Grace and aides on Monday evening, the official said. He is expected to make a stop-over in Malaysia, where his daughter, Bona, is expecting a second child.
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“He has gone for a routine medical trip to Singapore,” said the official, who has organised Mugabe’s security protection but who is not authorised to speak to the media. “He was due for a check-up but events of the last few weeks made it impossible for him to travel.”
The trip means Mugabe will not be in Zimbabwe when ZANU-PF endorses President Emmerson Mnangagwa as its leader and presidential candidate for next year’s elections during a one-day special congress on Friday.
The security official would not say how Mugabe was travelling although the privately owned NewsDay newspaper said he was on a state-owned Air Zimbabwe plane.
Mugabe was granted immunity from prosecution and assured of his safety under his resignation deal, a source of frustration to many Zimbabweans who accused him of looting state coffers and destroying the economy during his time in power.
Another government official told Reuters last month Mugabe had been due to travel to Singapore on Nov. 16 but was unable to leave because the military had confined him to his private home the previous day.
George Charamba, a senior information ministry official, declined to comment.
Under Zimbabwe’s Presidential Pension and Retirement Benefits Act, a former head of state is entitled to perks including limited foreign travel and medical insurance.
“These are very standard features of a retired president,” another government official said, trying to head off any controversy. “You are making a storm out of nothing.”
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Editing by James Macharia and Richard Balmforth
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Zimbabwe’s Mugabe flies to Singapore, first trip since ouster

Zimbabwe’s new president Emmerson Mnangagwa swore in his cabinet on Monday, with allies defending him against criticism for giving top posts to the generals who helped his rise to power.
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Sworn in as president on Nov. 24 after 93-year-old Robert Mugabe quit following a de facto military coup, Mnangagwa has also come under fire for bringing back several faces from the Mugabe era, including Patrick Chinamasa as finance minister.
Air Marshall Perrance Shiri, who was handed the sensitive land portfolio, defended his appointment in remarks to reporters after a simple ceremony to take oaths of office.
“Who says military people should never be politicians? I‘m a Zimbabwean so I have every right to participate in government,” he said.
Shiri is feared and loathed by many Zimbabweans as the former commander of the North Korean-trained ‘5 Brigade’ that played a central role in ethnic massacres in Matabeleland in 1983 in which an estimated 20,000 people were killed.
Land is a central political issue in the southern African country, where reforms in the early 2000s led to the violent seizure of thousands of white-owned farms and hastened an economic collapse.
Another military figure is foreign minister Sibusiso Moyo, whom most Zimbabweans remember as the khaki-clad general who went on state television in the early hours of Nov. 15 to announce the military takeover.
He declined to discuss the cabinet with Reuters, saying he had yet to get into his new office.
Assembling a cabinet has not been without mishaps.
Mnangawa dropped his initial pick as education minister on Saturday, 24 hours after appointing him, after a public outcry and reshuffled two others to meet a Constitutional requirement that all but five ministers be Members of Parliament.
This has left the information portfolio vacant after he named Chris Mutsvangwa, the influential leader of the war veterans’ association, as special advisor to the president.
Mutsvangwa has defended the cabinet, which at 22 is smaller than Mugabe’s 33-strong team, saying the two military appointments were not unique to Zimbabwe.
He also said Mnangagwa had “engaged” the opposition MDC party about taking part in an “inclusive” government, but its leader Morgan Tsvangirai had blocked it &#8212; a claim disputed by the MDC.
“As far as we are concerned there was no contact whatsoever between President Mnangagwa, ZANU-PF and our party regarding the possibility of inclusion or involvement of our members in the government,” MDC Vice President Nelson Chamisa told Reuters.
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Additional reporting by Ed Cropley; Editing by Catherine Evans
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Zimbabwe swears in first post-Mugabe cabinet

The International Monetary Fund will send a staff mission to Zimbabwe in coming days to meet with officials of the new government and assess the country’s fiscal and economic situation, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said on Thursday.
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The regular staff visit to Harare in early December “will update our assessment of Zimbabwe’s fiscal position, foreign exchange developments and inquire about the new administration’s economic plans,” Rice told a news briefing.
Zimbabwe’s new president Emmerson Mnangagwa on Tuesday appointed a new acting finance minister and announced a three-month amnesty window for the return of public funds illegally stashed abroad by individuals and companies.[nL8N1NY4CW] [nL8N1NX4LN].
Just a week in office, Mnangagwa, has promised to tackle corruption that had become endemic under former president Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule.
“We stand ready to support the authorities, in their efforts to design policies that can indeed restore stability and growth,” Rice said.
He added that while a concerted international effort to “revive and reintegrate” Zimbabwe’s economy will be needed, a financial assistance package from the IMF can only be possible once there is progress on clearing arrears with other international institutions.
Zimbabwe owes arrears of around $1.8 billion to the World Bank and the African Development Bank. Suffering from decades of decline and hyperinflation as a result of Mugabe’s economic policies, Zimbabwe has not been able to borrow from international lenders since 1999, when it started defaulting on its debt.
Last week, the IMF’s Zimbabwe mission chief said that the country’s economic situation “remains very difficult” with growth threatened by high government spending, an untenable foreign exchange regime and inadequate reforms. [nL8N1NT1EN]
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Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrew Hay
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IMF to send mission to Zimbabwe in coming days

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Zimbabwe’s new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, appointed senior military officials to top posts in his new cabinet and chose a veteran cabinet minister to head the finance ministry.

Mnangagwa, military share spoils of victory

Yvonne Rowa, University of Adelaide
Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s forced resignation invites a re-examination of the military’s role in political affairs. While a professional military is typically expected to refrain from politics, the interface between security and politics can sometimes be blurred.
<div id="attachment_290884" style="width: 2058px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-290884" class="wp-image-290884 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/104844149-GettyImages-874355048.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365" />HARARE, ZIMBABWE &#8211; NOVEMBER 15 : A military tank seals off a main road to the presidential office within the military activities taking place in Harare, Zimbabwe on November 15, 2017. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)</div>
In Kenya for example, the military Chiefs of Staff usually come from the president’s ethnic community making them partisan to the head of state and the party he represents. Most recently, there have been allegations of the military’s involvement in a poll rigging scheme with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government.
Other countries such as Uganda, Egypt and Thailand have experienced more flagrant examples of the military’s involvement in politics.
Recent events in Zimbabwe need to be understood within this context. The Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) latest stunt must be read as political subterfuge. The military has been enmeshed in Zimbabwe’s politics since the liberation struggle. While it has occasionally flexed its muscle to support Mugabe’s grip on power, this time around it has intervened to shore up the ruling party’s fledgling support after years of the former president’s unpopular rule.
<h2>Officers who call the tune</h2>
The ZDF have been an invisible actor in the country’s protracted crisis. The intervention that resulted in Mugabe’s resignation was the result of a slow brewing coup that has been occasioned by the military’s involvement in the country’s politics since independence in 1980.
The military has been accused of violence and intimidation, as well as participation in electoral malpractices. ZDF’s human rights violations, economic plunder and entanglement in politics have been widely documented. And its professional misconduct has fomented poor civil-military relations.
The military takeover is therefore a manifestation of undercurrents that have been present for years.
According to the latest research, Zimbabwe is ranked 81 out of 133 countries in terms of military strength, just after the Middle Eastern nation of Kuwait, and one rank above Georgia, which is a former Russian territory. It has a total of 52,000 military personnel, 30,000 active personnel and 22,000 reserves.
ZDF prides itself as having been the liberator in the country’s struggle for independence. During the fight for independence political figures were deployed in the military rank and file to motivate the fighters. At the time, the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) was the political wing of the Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (ZANLA). This close relationship between the military and political wings persisted after independence.
Mugabe has regularly gifted the military through the allocation of exploited resources. He has also rewarded military men with high positions in the civil service to retain their loyalty, for example the late Mike Karakadzai and Samuel Muvuti. These dynamics have progressively obscured the separation between the army, state and party.
<h2>Open support for the ZANU Patriotic Front</h2>
The military has been openly partisan in its support for ZANU-PF. The politics of patronage and wealth accumulation has characterised the relationship on both sides. In suppressing the opposition, ZDF has created an uneven political playing field through intimidation and election rigging. The Joint Operations Command which coordinates the military, police and intelligence has been central to ZANU-PF’s security policy.
The military has also taken an openly antagonistic stance towards the opposition. An example of this was Brigadier Douglas Nyikayaramba’s description of Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), as a national security threat.
By engineering Mugabe’s ouster the military has reasserted its position as an important player in Zimbabwean politics. It may not hesitate to intervene in the event of another “national crisis”.
<h2>Factors in the Mugabe ouster</h2>
In their clamour to oust an oppressive ruler and his ambitious wife the Zimbabwean people have placed their hopes in a devious military.
It is hard to tell whether Mugabe’s Achilles’s heel was his wife, Grace, or an equally scheming military, which lured him into a false sense of security and then double-crossed him when he failed to indulge their political whims.
The current political crisis could in fact be the climax of an unwitting convergence of machinations from both sides. By casting Grace as the villain, and taking on the role of saviour, the military is attempting to erase the part it has played in Zimbabwe’s fractious politics.
By joining in the calls for the installation of former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the people seem to have momentarily discounted his dark past in the country’s politics. Examples of his misdeeds include his role as chief architect in the Gukurahundi massacres which was carried out between 1983 and 1987. Approximately 20,000 Ndebele’s were murdered by the military and security forces.
Another dark cloud that hangs over him includes his special relationship with the military. They were jointly involved in the economic plunder of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The former vice president has also been known to persecute his opponents.
While he has the support of ZANU-PF and the top military brass when he becomes president he will face the challenge of de-linking himself from his murky past.
<h2>What next for Zimbabwe?</h2>
The military takeover strongly suggests that the men in uniform are intent on determining the country’s political trajectory. As such, there are limited leadership choices open to Zimbabweans. With the military’s support, Mnangagwa will take over in the interim and potentially win a future election. But he has a blemished past, which the ZDF cannot sanitise. And his installation could plunge the country into further uncertainty.
For Zimbabwe to take a different route, two things need to happen: the radical security sector reforms that have stalled since 2008 need to be revived. These reforms should be targeted towards professionalising the sector by addressing past misconduct, mainstreaming human rights, and introducing community policing. This should go in tandem with depoliticising the sector, and demilitarising the state and some civilian populations.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87872/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />In addition, the people of Zimbabwe need to agree on a framework for a viable transitional justice process.
This article was originally published on The Conversation.

Op-Ed: After Mugabe: why the role of Zimbabwe’s army can’t be trusted

New Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa is expected to form a new cabinet this week, with all eyes on whether he breaks with the past and names a broad-based government or selects old guard figures from Robert Mugabe’s era.
<div id="attachment_291244" style="width: 860px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-291244" class="wp-image-291244 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Emmerson-Mnangagwa_GettyImages.png" alt="" width="850" height="565" />Photo: Emmerson Mnangagwa: Getty Images</div>
Of particular interest is his choice of finance minister to replace Ignatius Chombo, who was among members of a group allied to Mugabe and his wife, Grace, who were detained and expelled from the ruling party. Chombo is facing corruption charges and is due to appear in court for a bail hearing on Monday.
In a tentative sign that he might do things differently, ZANU-PF cut the budget for a special congress to be held next month and also slashed the duration by half from six days, the state-owned Herald newspaper reported on Monday.
Mnangagwa was sworn in as president last Friday after 93-year-old Mugabe quit under pressure from the military.
He vowed to rebuild Zimbabwe’s ravaged economy and serve all citizens. But behind the rhetoric, some Zimbabweans wonder whether a man who loyally served Mugabe for decades can bring change to a ruling establishment accused of systematic human rights abuses and disastrous economic policies.
“The composition of the new government will show a clear path whether we continue with the status quo or the clear break with the past that we need to build a sustainable state. It’s a simple choice,” said former finance minister and opposition leader Tendai Biti.
“ALL HANDS ON DECK”
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change has called for an inclusive “transitional authority” to mark a break with Mugabe’s 37-year rule and enact reforms to allow for credible and free elections due next year.
“Zimbabwe needs all hands on deck&#8230;We cannot continue reproducing these cycles of instability,” Biti, who earned international respect as finance minister in a 2009-2013 unity government, told Reuters.
Some economic and political analysts say Mnangagwa’s choices may be limited after Cyber Security Minister and close ally Patrick Chinamasa said last week he saw no need for a coalition, as ZANU-PF had a parliamentary majority.
And with Mnangagwa saying on Friday elections would go ahead next year as scheduled, the opposition would have little to gain from participating in a coalition just eight months before the vote, Professor Anthony Hawkins, a business studies professor, said.
“If I were an opposition politician I would say: what’s in it for me? Unless I‘m convinced I‘m going to lose the election, I won’t participate,” Hawkins told Reuters.
“He (Mnangagwa) might introduce technocrats from commerce and that will send out a signal of sorts&#8230; As far as the international community is concerned legitimacy is important. It’s a very delicate situation and he has very little room for maneuver.”
The Standard newspaper, which has been critical of Mugabe and his government over the years, said Mnangagwa would be judged on how he delivers on the bold commitments he made at his inauguration. It said he must “walk the talk on graft” that has exacerbated the country’s economic decline.
Mugabe’s fall after 37 years in power was spurred by a battle to succeed him that pitted Mnangagwa, his former deputy who had stood by him for 52 years, and Mugabe’s wife, Grace, 52, who has been at the couple’s “Blue House” mansion in Harare and hasn’t been seen in public since.
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Reporting by Emelia Sithole-Matarise; Editing by Nick Macfie
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Zimbabwe cabinet pick to show if Mnangagwa is breaking with the past

Emmerson Mnangagwa was sworn in on Friday as President of Zimbabwe in front of thousands of cheering supporters at Harare’s national stadium, bringing the final curtain down on the 37-year rule of Robert Mugabe.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-292303 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Emmerson-Mnangagwa_Zim_Swearing-In_GettyImages-RZ.png" alt="" width="850" height="566" />
Taking his oath of office, the 75-year-old former security chief known as ‘The Crocodile’ vowed to uphold the constitution of the former British colony and protect the rights of all Zimbabwe’s 16 million citizens.
Even though most Zimbabweans celebrated the exit of 93-year-old Mugabe, who presided over the descent into penury and despotism of one of Africa’s brightest prospects, some are worried about the future under Mnangagwa.
In particular, they question his role in the so-called Gukurahundi massacres in Matabeleland in 1983, when an estimated 20,000 people were killed in a crackdown on Mugabe opponents by the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade.
Mnangagwa has denied any part in the atrocities and since his return to Zimbabwe after two weeks in hiding has been preaching democracy, tolerance and respect for the rule of law.
“The people have spoken. The voice of the people is the voice of God,” he told thousands of supporters on Wednesday at the headquarters of his ruling ZANU-PF party.
However, the army’s rough treatment of Mugabe loyalists &#8211; former finance minister Ignatius Chombo was hospitalized because of beatings sustained in military custody, his lawyer said &#8211; has not allayed concerns about Mnangagwa’s real views of democracy.
“It was a very brutal and draconian way of dealing with opponents,” Chombo’s lawyer, Lovemore Madhuku, told Reuters.
Mugabe, the world’s oldest serving head of state, resigned on Tuesday as parliament started to impeach him, a week to the day after the army stepped in to seize power.
Mnangagwa assured Mugabe he and his family would be safe in Zimbabwe when the two men spoke for the first time since Mnangagwa returned home this week, the state-owned The Herald newspaper reported on Friday.
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Additional reporting by Ed Cropley in Johannesburg; Writing by Ed Cropley; Editing by James Macharia
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Mnangagwa, the ‘Crocodile,’ sworn in as Zimbabwe president

Nic Cheeseman |University of Birmingham
Zimbabwe has a new leader. Robert Mugabe is out. His former ally turned rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is in. What now?
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-292290 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Zimbabwe_Emmerson_GettyImages-RZ1.png" alt="" width="850" height="566" />
After ecstatic celebrations to mark Mugabe’s resignation thoughts have began to turn to what comes next. Mugabe may have exited the political scene, but it remains dominated by the same political party – Zanu-PF – that sustained his rule.
Moreover, the country’s president-elect, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is hardly a breath of fresh air. Having held a series of cabinet positions under Mugabe, and served as First Vice President between December 2014 and his sacking in November 2017, he looks more like a force for continuity than change.
As a result, talk in Harare quickly turned to what kind of leader Mnangagwa will be, and the system of government that would best serve ordinary Zimbabweans.
<h2>The fork in the road</h2>
My conversations with people on the streets of the capital, Harare, about the political system the country needs suggests that two distinct camps are emerging: those who want elections to be held as soon as possible, and those who say the polls should be postponed and a transitional government established.
Both of these options have genuine “pros” but also strong “cons”. As is so often the case, there is no perfect answer that solves all problems.
It is understandable that many Zimbabweans want a period of calm and orderly government after the twists and turns of recent weeks, and believe that it would be better to form an inclusive government that would feature representatives of all of the main political parties – a kind of power sharing in all but name.
Even though I have consistently argued in favour of the value of democracy and elections in Africa, I have to admit that the “transitioners” have some viable arguments.
The most obvious is that a period of stability and more consensual government might facilitate much needed reform of the economy and also the wider political and legal system. After all, rival parties are unlikely to come to agreement on these issues if they are immediately thrust into an election campaign.
The “transitioners” also have a point when it comes to democracy. Few people in Zimbabwe believe that it’s possible for elections to be free and fair if they are held between July and August next year, as currently scheduled. Given this, and the current divisions within the opposition, a rush to elections is likely to result in a convincing victory for Zanu-PF under problematic circumstances.
A transitional arrangement would allow for much needed electoral reforms to be put in place, creating the potential for a better quality process and a more consensual outcome later on.
<h2>Testing the Crocodile</h2>
But there is also another camp that wants to see Mnangagwa, popularly known as The Crocodile, to face an election as soon as possible.
Just like their counterparts in the “transitioner” camp, “electioneers”, have some strong arguments. Whatever one wants to call Mnangagwa’s rise to power – from a coup to an internal party squabble – it is clear that it has not been a high quality democratic transition. And while it is clear that the overthrow of Mugabe was hugely popular, we don’t know if the same applies to a Mnangagwa presidency. An election would settle that question.
It would also give the new government a popular mandate to undertake economic reforms, whoever wins power. This could be important to the success of the reform project, because things are likely to get worse before they get better, and the country’s economic medicine may prove to be a bitter pill to swallow.
Holding elections would also do one thing that postponing them will not; it will test the commitment of the new government to democratic norms and values from the get-go. One of the main reasons that Zimbabwean elections have been poor quality is that Zanu-PF and the military have intervened to make sure this was the case. As another friend put it, “If they are really committed to doing the right thing, they can do it right away and the elections will not be too bad”.
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
“Electioneers” are also motivated by scepticism that an inclusive transitional government would get much done. Both Zimbabwe and Kenya have had power-sharing governments in the recent past, and while they both introduced new constitutions they also saw high levels of corruption and limited security sector reform. They also both led to elections that were denounced by opposition parties as being unfree and unfair.
It’s fair to ask: why would it be different this time?
The question is particularly pertinent given the current composition of parliament. Because Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change boycotted a series of by-elections on the basis that they would not be free and fair, it has lost many of the seats it won in 2013. As a result, any transitional arrangement that deferred elections and “froze” the current parliament for the next three years would have a big legislative advantage to Zanu-PF.
It is also important to keep in mind that economics cannot be divorced from politics: Zimbabwe’s current economic difficulties stem precisely from an unaccountable political framework that ignored the interests of the people. Given that recent events have emboldened the military and given them an even stronger voice within government, this is a pressing concern.
Deferring electoral reforms in order to focus on economic recovery may therefore prove to be a self defeating strategy.
<h2>Next steps</h2>
Ultimately, the form of government that evolves in Zimbabwe will not be a product of popular dialogue. One of the distinctive features of this process is that for the most part it has been conducted behind closed doors by a small elite.
Don’t be fooled by the pictures of tens of thousands of people marching on Saturday – all sides have invoked popular support, but none have actually encouraged ordinary people to say what they want, or given them a seat at the table. This is a worrying sign if strengthening democracy is the long-term goal.
Recent public statements by the main parties at the time of going to press suggests that they are not converging on an interim administration, and so the “electioneers” may get their wish. That could still change because talks are ongoing and both sides would gain something from a delay. But if it doesn’t the people will be able to have their say on how they want their country to be run.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88023/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Of course, voting will not actually equate to “having a say” unless the country’s new leader follows through on his promise to build a “new democracy”, and the ruling party can kick the habit of a lifetime. Watch this space.
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This article was originally published on The Conversation.

Will Mnangagwa usher in a new democracy? The view from Zimbabwe

Emmerson Mnangagwa will cap a stunning political comeback when he is sworn in as Zimbabwe’s president on Friday, bringing the final curtain down on the 37-year rule of Robert Mugabe.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-292290 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Zimbabwe_Emmerson_GettyImages-RZ1.png" alt="" width="850" height="566" />
Mugabe, 93, who had led Zimbabwe from independence in 1980, stepped down on Tuesday after the army seized power and the ruling ZANU-PF party turned against him.
The world’s oldest serving head of state resigned as parliament began a process to impeach him, sparking wild celebrations in the streets. His sudden fall had been triggered by a battle to succeed him that pitted Mnangagwa against Mugabe’s much younger wife Grace.
Just two weeks ago, she seemed to have the upper hand after Mugabe fired Mnangagwa on Nov. 6 as vice president for showing “traits of disloyalty”.
That prompted Mnangagwa, 75, long one of Mugabe’s most trusted lieutenants, to flee the country in fear for his life. It also brought the tanks into the streets.
Addressing a cheering crowd in Harare on Wednesday night after his return, Mnangagwa said Zimbabwe was entering a new stage of democracy.
“The people have spoken. The voice of the people is the voice of God,” he told thousands of supporters.
On Thursday, Mnangagwa urged citizens not to undertake “vengeful retribution” &#8211; striking a tone of reconciliation that echoed those made by Mugabe almost four decades ago.
Mugabe was granted immunity from prosecution and assured that his safety would be protected in his home country as part of a deal that led to his resignation, sources close to the negotiations said on Thursday.
Some of Mnangagwa’s supporters have called for unspecified action against the “G40” group that backed Mugabe and his wife, known as “Gucci Grace” for her reputed dedication to shopping, an affront to many in a country with an unemployment rate of 90 percent.
<h3>BLOODSHED OF 1980S</h3>
Rebuilding a shattered economy and restoring investor confidence will be at the top of the agenda for Mnangagwa, who carries his own baggage after decades of service to Mugabe, who was widely accused of resorting to human rights abuses and election-rigging.
Mnangagwa earned the nickname “Ngwena”, Shona for crocodile, an animal famed and feared in Zimbabwean lore for stealth and ruthlessness.
He backed Mugabe’s economic nationalism, especially a drive to force foreign firms to hand majority stakes to local blacks, suggesting he may not be the pro-market pragmatist many investors have been hoping for.
Most controversially, he was in charge of internal security in the mid-1980s when Mugabe deployed a crack North Korean-trained brigade against rebels loyal to his rival Joshua Nkomo.
Rights groups say 20,000 civilians, mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were killed. Mugabe denies genocide or crimes against humanity but has admitted it was a “moment of madness”.
Mnangagwa’s role remains shrouded in mystery.
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change said it was cautiously optimistic a Mnangagwa presidency would not “mimic and replicate the evil, corrupt, decadent and incompetent Mugabe regime”.
Zimbabwe’s bourse, which had been on a rapid rise, lost $6 billion during this month’s military intervention as its main index fell by 40 percent. Analysts say it will fall even further before recovering.
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Writing by Ed Stoddard; editing by Andrew Roche
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