Platinum market faces third consecutive deficit in 2025, WPIC says

* Platinum market deficit will be lower in 2025 than 2024, WPIC says * Supply seen up 1% in 2025 as higher recycling offsets lower mine output * Total demand seen down 1% in 2025 after steady 2024 * Auto demand for platinum to hit an eight-year high in 2025 LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) – The global platinum market will be in a structural deficit for a third consecutive year in 2025 as mine supply remains constrained despite rising recycling and a 1% decline in demand, the World Platinum Investment Council said on Tuesday. The WPIC, whose members are major Western platinum producers, expects the global market to show a shortfall of 539,000 troy ounces of platinum next year compared with a revised estimated deficit of 682,000 ounces this year. “The market is facing the third year of pretty material deficit in 2025, with automotive demand expected to grow to an eight-year high and jewellery demand to rise for the second year in a row after bottoming out,” said Edward Sterck, head of research at the WPIC. This year’s forecast was reduced from the deficit of 1.0 million ounces predicted by the WPIC in September, as a more stable power supply in South Africa helped the country’s mines to process more concentrates held as a work-in-progress inventory. Next year, the WPIC expects mine supply to fall 2% due to lower South African production and to be fully offset by a 12% recovery in recycled supply. Meanwhile, demand from the auto sector, which uses platinum in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from vehicle exhaust systems, is projected to fall by 2% this year to 3.2 million ounces due to economic uncertainty and high interest rates. Next year, the WPIC sees the auto demand recovering by 2% to its highest level since 2017 due to growth in sales of hybrid vehicles, stricter emissions legislation, and platinum-for-palladium substitution, the WPIC, which uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, added. To cover the deficit, above-ground stocks will fall by 15% to 3.0 million ounces, equal to just over four months of global demand. PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)* 202 202 202 202 24/2 25/2 Q3 Q2 Q3 2 3 4f 5f 3 4 202 202 202 chan chan 3 4 4 ge ge SUPPLY Refined 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,5 0% -1% 1,3 1,5 1,4 production: 20 04 26 50 93 41 79 – South Africa 3,9 3,9 4,0 3,9 1% -2% 984 1,1 1,0 15 57 00 29 28 73 – Zimbabwe 480 507 504 522 -1% 3% 132 126 126 – North 263 275 252 232 -8% -8% 60 59 60 America – Russia 663 674 678 676 1% 0% 168 181 172 – Other 200 190 191 191 0% 0% 48 48 48 Change in +43 +11 +57 +0 -6 +35 +0 producer inventory Total mining 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,5 1% -2% 1,3 1,5 1,4 supply 63 15 83 50 87 76 79 Recycling: 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,7 3% 12% 347 388 348 62 44 87 74 – Autocatalyst 1,3 1,1 1,1 1,3 3% 14% 254 297 260 22 43 76 46 – Jewellery 372 331 335 347 1% 4% 75 72 68 – Industrial 69 71 76 81 8% 6% 17 19 20 TOTAL SUPPLY 7,3 7,1 7,2 7,3 2% 1% 1,7 1,9 1,8 26 59 69 24 33 64 27 DEMAND Automotive 2,7 3,2 3,1 3,2 -2% 2% 771 805 750 51 23 73 45 Jewellery 1,8 1,8 1,9 1,9 5% 2% 446 497 478 80 49 51 83 Industrial: 2,3 2,4 2,4 2,2 -1% -9% 490 667 565 36 49 34 16 – Chemical 694 786 563 656 -28% 17% 147 140 137 – Petroleum 193 161 161 211 0% 31% 39 40 40 – Electrical 106 89 90 92 1% 2% 22 23 24 – Glass 505 521 671 286 29% -57% 64 225 125 – Medical 278 292 303 314 4% 4% 71 77 78 – Hydrogen 12 29 64 84 123% 32% 7 14 17 stationary – Other 548 571 582 574 2% -1% 139 148 144 Investment: -51 397 393 420 -1% 7% 50 462 -22 6 6 – Change in 259 322 171 151 -47% -12% 86 17 69 Bars/Coins – China Bars 90 134 157 170 17% 8% 35 41 30 500g+ – Change in -55 -74 150 50 -67% -99 444 -30 ETF Holdings 8 0 – Change in -30 14 -85 50 28 -40 -25 Stocks Held by 7 Exchanges Total Demand 6,4 7,9 7,9 7,8 0% -1% 1,7 2,4 1,5 51 18 51 63 56 31 67 Balance 874 -75 -68 -53 -23 -46 260 9 2 9 7 Above Ground 4,9 4,2 3,5 3,0 -16% -15% Stocks 93 35 53 14 Source: Metals Focus 2020–2025 via WPIC. (Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Paul Simao)

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