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By <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/nyshka-chandran/">Nyshka Chandran</a>, Reporter, CNBC Asia-Pacific
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/south-africa/">South Africa&#8217;s</a> investor appeal is experiencing a robust recovery under the two-month old government of President <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/ramaphosa-cabinet-reshuffle-sees-investor-favorites-return-to-run-south-africa-economy.html">Cyril Ramaphosa</a>, the country&#8217;s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Thursday.
Since Ramaphosa took power, both business and consumer confidence have improved, Kganyago told CNBC&#8217;s Joumanna Bercetche at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/washington-dc/">Washington</a>.
The positive momentum is also reflected in financial markets. &#8220;We saw bond yields decline, the currency strengthen so there is positive investor sentiment in South Africa and that, of course, lays a basis for a cyclical recovery,&#8221; Kganyago said.
Ramaphosa, the successor to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/south-africas-new-era-of-leadership-could-surprise-and-make-it-a-good-place-to-put-money.html">embattled former leader Jacob Zuma</a>, is widely regarded as a pro-business politician committed to fighting graft and boosting foreign investment. Once a top performing emerging market, the economy took a hit under Zuma, who was criticized for heavy <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/04/04/sp-south-africa-government-divisions-could-erode-business-trust.html">government interference in business affairs</a>.
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Also encouraging was the government&#8217;s tabling of a budget, which is setting <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/south-africa-raises-vat-for-the-first-time-in-25-years.html">a path for fiscal consolidation</a>, and the fact that Moody&#8217;s revised its credit outlook to stable from negative last month, Kganyago continued.
Ramaphosa this week announced a drive to attract more than $100 billion in foreign investments — a target that Kganyago called &#8220;aspirational.&#8221;
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While the country has been enjoying steady portfolio investment, foreign direct investment will take longer, the central bank head said, adding that once a suitable domestic environment is created, Ramaphosa&#8217;s goal will be achievable.
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Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago: What investors now think of SA

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/nigeria-president-buhari-hints-at-15-billion-shell-deal.html">Nigeria&#8217;s Buhari hints at $15 billion deal with Shell, says &#8216;we are not doing too badly&#8217;</a>
<ul>
<li>Nigeria&#8217;s President Muhammadu Buhari met with Shell on Wednesday as part of talks that could lead to a $15 billion investment in his country.</li>
<li>Oil accounts for approximately 35 percent of Nigeria&#8217;s gross domestic product, according to OPEC.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/19/105143037-GettyImages-948149624.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Daniel Leal | Olivas-WPA Pool | Getty Images"/>
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari met with ShellRDSA-GB on Wednesday as part of talks he said were to secure $15 billion of investment in his country.
&#8220;I saw Shell Group, they came here, they saw me, they are preparing to invest $15 billion in Nigeria… so really, we are not doing too badly,&#8221; Buhari said to applause at the Commonwealth Business Forum in London on Wednesday. He was speaking as part of a panel on the ease of doing business between Commonwealth countries.
Shell confirmed to CNBC that the meeting had taken place, but did not comment on the size of the specific investment.
A spokesperson said in a statement: &#8220;Nigeria is an important country for Shell. We see good opportunities there for potential investment,&#8221; referencing its Bonga offshore oil field and the expansion of liquefied natural gas as examples of this. &#8220;Both projects are subject to a future final investment decision and we continue to work with our partners and the government towards that in each case.&#8221;
Shell&#8217;s statement added: &#8220;The potential investments feature as options in our long-term plans and would fit within our capital spending range of $25 to $30 billion per year if we decide to go ahead with them.&#8221;
Oil price volatility has hit Nigeria&#8217;s economy — the largest on the African continent — hard. In 2016, the country suffered its first full-year recession in 25 years. Economic growth remains sluggish, expected by the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000936?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
International Monetary Fund 
</a> (IMF) to be 2.1 percent for 2018, well below the emerging market average of 4.9 percent.
Oil accounts for approximately 35 percent of Nigeria&#8217;s gross domestic product, according to the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000937?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 
</a> (OPEC), of which Nigeria is a member.
Buhari referenced that, as of October, Nigeria had risen 24 places in the World Bank&#8217;s Ease of Doing Business ranking to 145th out of a total of 190 economies.
&#8220;We acknowledge that much more is to be done,&#8221; he said. &#8220;We are now in the next stage, this is work in progress.&#8221;

Nigeria’s Buhari hints at $15 billion deal with Shell, says ‘we are not doing too badly’

Nyshka Chandran 
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/south-africa-reserve-bank-governor-lesetija-kganyago-on-new-president-cyril-ramaphosa.html">South Africa&#8217;s new president is lifting investor sentiment: Central bank chief</a>
<ul>
<li>Investor sentiment and financial markets in South Africa have strengthened under the leadership of new President Cyril Ramaphosa, said the country&#8217;s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago.</li>
<li>That lays the basis for a cyclical economic recovery, he told CNBC at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings. </li>
</ul>

South Africa investor appeal is experiencing a robust recovery under the two-month old government of President <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105031500?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Cyril Ramaphosa 
</a>, the country&#8217;s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Thursday.
Since Ramaphosa took power, both business and consumer confidence have improved, Kganyago told CNBC&#8217;s Joumanna Bercetche at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington DC.
The positive momentum is also reflected in financial markets. &#8220;We saw bond yields decline, the currency strengthen so there is positive investor sentiment in South Africa and that, of course, lays a basis for a cyclical recovery,&#8221; Kganyago said.
Ramaphosa, the successor to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105071221?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
embattled former leader Jacob Zuma 
</a>, is widely regarded as a pro-business politician committed to fighting graft and boosting foreign investment. Once a top performing emerging market, the economy took a hit under Zuma, who was criticized for heavy <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/104382516?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
government interference in business affairs 
</a>.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/14160235/101587040-107233710.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Getty Images"/>
Also encouraging was the government&#8217;s tabling of a budget, which is setting <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105019755?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
a path for fiscal consolidation 
</a>, and the fact that Moody&#8217;s revised its credit outlook to stable from negative last month, Kganyago continued.
Ramaphosa this week announced a drive to attract more than $100 billion in foreign investments — a target that Kganyago called &#8220;aspirational.&#8221;
While the country has been enjoying steady portfolio investment, foreign direct investment will take longer, the central bank head said, adding that once a suitable domestic environment is created, Ramaphosa&#8217;s goal will be achievable.

South Africa’s new president is lifting investor sentiment: Central bank chief

King’s Barcelona Office | Office Envy

Natasha Turak
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/libyas-most-powerful-military-leader-khalifa-haftar-might-be-dead.html">Libya’s most powerful military leader might be dead and that could impact oil markets</a>
<ul>
<li class="">Libya&#8217;s most powerful military leader reportedly suffered a stroke this week — and no one can confirm whether he is dead or alive.</li>
<li>Local media has reported General Khalifa Haftar&#8217;s death, while sources close to him insist he is recovering.</li>
<li>Haftar&#8217;s death could mean a renewal of violence that could hit the OPEC country&#8217;s oil output and create new opportunities for groups like ISIS.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2014/05/26/101705002-491933959.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="AFP | Getty Images"/>
Libya&#8217;s most powerful military leader reportedly suffered a stroke this week — and no one can confirm whether he is dead or alive.
Local media has reported General Khalifa Haftar&#8217;s death, while sources close to him insist he is recovering. If the former is true, it could mean a renewal of violence and a power struggle that could hit the OPEC country&#8217;s oil output and create new opportunities for extremist groups like the Islamic State militant group.
Often described as the oil-rich state&#8217;s &#8220;most powerful warlord,&#8221; Khaftar, who heads the powerful but internally fractured Libyan National Army (LNA), has been a stabilizing force in a country wracked by civil war since longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi was deposed in the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. Many fear that his absence could usher in the kind of power vacuum and chaos that followed Gaddafi&#8217;s death.
Haftar effectively controls eastern Libya, including the &#8220;oil crescent&#8221; in the Gulf of Sirte that holds four major ports that comprise the lion&#8217;s share of Libya&#8217;s oil exports. The 75-year-old general, who holds American citizenship, was formerly a Gaddafi ally but returned to Libya in 2011, after years in the U.S., to join the NATO offensive that toppled the dictator.
<h4>A fractured country</h4>
Haftar has successfully managed to hold numerous competing factions and tribes together to keep the LNA unified. And he&#8217;s effectively presented himself as an answer to radical Islamist groups in the region, thereby gaining strong support from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Eastern Libya is home to its Tobruk-led government, which is in competition with the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), based in the capital of Tripoli in western Libya. Haftar&#8217;s eastern camp is supported by Egypt and the UAE. Technically, the two bodies are supposed to be united under the GNA, but they do not fully recognize one another and thus make their own laws regardless of joint consensus. Welcome to Libya. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2014/10/15/102090359-1179019.1910x1000.jpg" alt="Libya map" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="AP"/>
Exports from the four ports under Haftar&#8217;s control are Libya&#8217;s main source of much-needed hard currency. Libya&#8217;s population of 6.3 million sits above the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, but benefit practically nothing from them — the United Nations estimates about 40 percent of the country lives below the poverty line.
Because he&#8217;s so revered in eastern Libya, any potential successor to Haftar would likely face serious challenges from within the LNA, and his death could trigger deep internal conflict, said Sarah Al Shaalan, a Middle East and North Africa researcher at risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Egypt and the UAE appear committed to preventing a splintering of the east, but a worst-case scenario would be the outbreak of further violence.
<h4>Risk to oil production</h4>
Haftar&#8217;s incapacitation will have direct implications for the hydrocarbon sector, according to Chris Elsner and Paul Tossetti of IHS Oil Markets.
The general&#8217;s efforts were vital in maintaining much of Libya&#8217;s oil production. It took Haftar&#8217;s concentration of power in the east, aided by his military forces, to open up all Libya&#8217;s central export terminals, &#8220;marking the start of the most recent rise in Libyan output back to 1 million barrels per day (bdp) from a range of 300,000 to 500,000 bpd,&#8221; the analysts said.
&#8220;That resurgence — and the associated revenues — have bought a measure of temporary stability for Libya and provided some scope for political negotiations to move forward,&#8221; they added.
So increasing chaos would only further damage Libyan national security, creating opportunities for militias and traffickers already exploiting the crisis, Al Shaalan said. &#8220;The Islamic State would also likely exploit the situation to accelerate attacks intended to disturb oil exports in north-central Libya.&#8221;
And a weakened LNA would encourage its opponents to recapture main positions like oil terminals or military sites.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/08/07/104638259-GettyImages-605720592.1910x1000.jpg" alt="A picture shows a general view at the Zueitina oil terminal in Libya on September 14, 2016." height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Abdullah Doma | AFP | Getty Images "/>
For rival forces waiting for the news on Haftar, this may be their window, and the country could witness a rush to target oil infrastructure and disrupt operations in the event of his death. Eurasia Group estimates this would lead to a decline in average production in Libya from 1.1 million bpd in 2018 to roughly 900,000 &#8220;in the most benign scenarios.&#8221;
Markets will focus not only on potential declines, but on the risk of much broader instability in the east that would have a more meaningful impact on production.
Given tightening global oil supplies, a 200,000 bpd decrease in Libya would add further support to oil prices, and combined with the increased likelihood of a <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/104955107?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
collapse in the Iran nuclear deal 
</a> in May, bolsters the case for oil market bulls.
In the meantime, Libyans await news on the fate of one of their most influential leaders — and by extension, the fate of their country.

Libya’s most powerful military leader might be dead and that could impact oil markets

British pubs are disappearing – here’s why | CNBC Reports

Justina Crabtree
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/16/african-countries-warned-against-becoming-a-fortress-for-trade-by-wto.html">African countries warned against becoming a ‘fortress’ for trade by WTO</a>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;Certainly at the WTO, we see African integration as a stepping stone towards further integration between Africa and the global economy,&#8221; said the director-general.</li>
<li>African leaders met in Kigali, Rwanda, last month to sign a declaration of the establishment of a free trade area on the continent. This, if fully put into practice, would be the largest bloc of its kind in terms of member states since the formation of the World Trade Organization.</li>
</ul>
Recent progress made by African nations towards establishing the world&#8217;s largest free trade area was backed Monday by the director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Roberto Azevedo warned, however, that the continent must remain outward looking.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/09/04/103914629-GettyImages-538551434.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Daniel Leal-Olivas | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;The notion of a continental (free trade) area, I think, is something that should be supported by everyone,&#8221; he said, speaking at the Commonwealth Business Forum in London.
&#8220;Certainly at the WTO, we see African integration as a stepping stone towards further integration between Africa and the global economy.&#8221;
&#8220;But, Azevedo warned that countries should avoid taking the &#8220;wrong road.&#8221;
He said that discussion needed to include &#8220;how to make sure that the integrated processes do not become a fortress,&#8221; and instead be used as a &#8220;step to open up&#8221; rather than shutting off other forms of global trade.
&#8220;The integration of Africa is an important point of integration into the world,&#8221; he said.
African leaders met in Kigali, Rwanda, last month to sign a declaration of the establishment of a free trade area on the continent. This, if fully put into practice, would be <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105076688?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
the largest bloc of its kind in terms of member states 
</a> since the formation of the World Trade Organization.
The agreement is proposed by the African Union, a collective of 55 countries on the continent. It is touted as encompassing a market of 1.2 billion people with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 trillion — and intended to encourage Africa&#8217;s trade to <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105094579?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
diversify away 
</a> from its traditional commodity exports outside of the continent, the volatile prices of which have hurt the economies of many countries.
Forty-four African countries signed the pact in March, although sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s two biggest economies hesitated.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa only committed joining the agreement at some point in the future, while Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari did not attend the summit at all. Both cited the need to resolve domestic issues first, for example working with labor unions over feared job losses.
Azevedo also highlighted the need to improve infrastructure in Africa to better facilitate trade. &#8220;Because although they are neighboring countries, sometimes in Africa it&#8217;s easier to connect to Europe or to other markets than to themselves.&#8221;

African countries warned against becoming a ‘fortress’ for trade by WTO

Dr. Michael Ivanovitch
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/16/chinas-growing-economic-presence-in-eu-causing-concern--commentary.html">Germany&#8217;s problem with China goes well beyond trade issues</a>
<ul>
<li>Germany has no reason to complain about China, unless it is doing that in the name of EU&#8217;s huge trade deficit with Beijing.</li>
<li>Berlin should stop bossing around European countries benefiting from Chinese investments.</li>
<li>EU should embrace, without fear, the Belt and Road Initiative because it controls its endpoints and major sale outlets.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/06/01/104504024-GettyImages-599512812-merkel-xi.1910x1000.jpg" alt="Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) shakes hand with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) before their meeting at the West Lake State House on September 5, 2016 in Hangzhou, China. " height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Getty Images"/>
China stands accused by Germany of interfering in its spheres of interest and influence in the European Union, West Balkans and Africa . Germans are also alleging that the China are using their economic clout in these regions for political ends.
While on a visit to Paris in August of last year, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany&#8217;s foreign minister at that time, spelled it all out: &#8220;If we don&#8217;t develop a (European) policy regarding China, then China will succeed in dividing Europe.&#8221; And in an apparent spoof on Beijing&#8217;s &#8220;one-China&#8221; mantra, he said that &#8220;we should urge China to practice a &#8216;one-Europe&#8217; policy.&#8221;

Greece was one of the early flashpoints for Germany&#8217;s concern about the growing competition from China. Benefiting from Beijing&#8217;s large direct investments, Greece blocked last June an EU statement at the United Nations about China&#8217;s repressive human rights policies.
Hungary, where China is building a high-speed railway line from Budapest to Belgrade, joined Greece to block another EU statement criticizing China&#8217;s territorial claims in the South China Sea, after The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against Beijing in July 2016.
Berlin is also alarmed at China&#8217;s very successful economic cooperation with 16 Central and East European countries, derisively called &#8220;the new Europeans,&#8221; in a &#8220;16+1&#8221; organization set up in 2012.
<h4>Stop bossing around</h4>
These are the examples of how much Germany is pushing the envelope using an old French chestnut of &#8220;préférence communautaire&#8221; — a political injunction to protect EU products and services from non-EU suppliers.
But the Germans are going much further. They are complaining about countries working with China which are not even the EU members — some of them merely looking for an associate status because a full membership is a drawn-out obstacles race at the mercy of centuries-old regional hatreds and rivalries.
Last February, for example, at a press conference in Berlin, the prime minister of former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was gratefully acknowledging China&#8217;s help in modernizing his country&#8217;s roads when German Chancellor Angela Merkel reminded him that there may be political conditions attached to such infrastructure investments.
Further to the north, Serbia is another non-EU member where China is investing billions of dollars in a construction of modern road networks, a 1.5 km bridge over the Danube River, high-speed rail lines, a large industrial park and a number of industrial projects. All that is being closely and very critically scrutinized by Germany — even though Serbia will never become an EU member in exchange for a required recognition of Kosovo&#8217;s contested statehood.
Things have indeed changed since the time when Otto von Bismark, the chancellor of the German First Reich, arrogantly opined that &#8220;the whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier.&#8221;
Germany is also finding that China is in the way as Berlin seeks to establish a closer relationship with its former African colonies. In most of these countries, China may be difficult to dislodge because it has been operating development programs there for many years and decades.
<h4>Trade smarts, not threats, with China</h4>
Neither is the China&#8217;s monumental, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) much to German taste. That is a modern replica of ancient overland and maritime routes connecting East Asia with Europe and Africa. China, Germany claims, has too much control over the whole project. The German ambassador to Beijing says that his country&#8217;s companies should be able to participate as equal partners.
Interestingly, German companies don&#8217;t seem to have the same reservations. A BRI study published last February by two German business associations — Germany Trade &amp; Invest and Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce — highlights &#8220;cooperation opportunities between German and Chinese businesses in sectors of infrastructure, energy and consulting.&#8221;
More seriously perhaps, German complaints about Chinese control have much broader implications. Media reports, for example, quote German authorities&#8217; statements that the BRI serves as an instrument to establish a Chinese world order (&#8220;pax sinica&#8221;), where even the terms &#8220;free trade&#8221; and &#8220;the rule of law&#8221; have meanings different from what&#8217;s commonly understood.
China is strongly denying any such intentions. At the Boao Forum for Asia last week, China&#8217;s President Xi Jinping said that the BRI was &#8220;neither the Marshall Plan after World War II nor an intrigue of China.&#8221;
Beijing, he said, seeks &#8220;shared growth through discussion and collaboration,&#8221; advocating &#8220;inclusiveness&#8221; and opposing a &#8220;zero-sum game … mentality.&#8221; More to the point, Xi pledged that &#8220;China will not threaten anyone else, attempt to overturn the existing international system, or seek spheres of influence.&#8221;
It would not be surprising if Germany begged to differ. At any rate, Germany correctly wants to see real and meaningful measures of China&#8217;s opening up to world commerce and finance. Like some other Europeans, Germans are talking of China&#8217;s &#8220;promise fatigue,&#8221; arguing that Beijing has to reciprocate — after having greatly benefited from a fairly liberal access to German and other EU markets.
Here are the numbers.
The China&#8217;s share of EU trade has almost tripled so far this decade to 15.3 percent, slightly below America&#8217;s steadily declining share of 16.9 percent.
Last year, China ran a whopping 176 billion euro trade surplus with the EU, while the U.S. took a 120.8 billion euro deficit. In the first two months of this year, China&#8217;s EU trade surplus was running at an alarming annual rate of 213.6 billion euro, a 21.4 percent increase over last year.
Germany, by comparison, has much less to complain about: Its goods trade deficit with China remains on a steeply declining trend, falling last year to 14.2 billion euro, a 21.5 percent drop from 2016.
Still, Germany, a powerhouse of world exports, does not seem to like that. Berlin is also very worried about China&#8217;s buying spree in the heartland of its top technologies — a recent allegedly stealthy purchase of a 9.7 percent stake in Daimler (which owns the Mercedes Benz brand of cars), an 8.8 percent ownership of the Deutsche Bank, the purchase of the robotics firm KUKA and the energy management company Ista.
Germans are now tightening the rules and reviews of incoming direct investments, prompting the adoption of the same procedures at the EU level.
<h4>Investment thoughts</h4>
The pictures of a beaming German chancellor and Chinese prime minister extolling the Sino-German &#8220;dream team&#8221; projects seem to be souvenirs of another time.
Sadly, however, Germany and the EU — much like the U.S. — are waking up a bit too late.
China has worked hard to produce and sell its wares to eager European and other overseas buyers, amassing, in the process, huge trade surpluses.
All the money that China has earned on its net foreign trade transactions — an estimated $130 billion in 2017 — has to be recycled in portfolio and direct investments abroad. Remember, even in China, the balance of payments has to balance — the sum of current and capital accounts must be equal to zero (with adjustments and statistical errors, of course).
Complaints and vilifications of China are no substitutes for thought and smart German, EU and American trade policies. Yes, do insist on fair and reciprocal trade, but Germany should stop bossing around its European customers (aka partners) to defend its trade privileges.
The BRI is a huge, epochal, lucrative and open-ended Eurasian project people have dreamed about ever since that Venetian nobleman and trader (Marco Polo) showed the way to Serenissima&#8217;s riches in the late 13th century. China may well control the origins of BRI routes and commerce, but the Europeans dominate the endpoints and major sale outposts.
That should not be hard to understand for those whipping up the political soufflés, instead of concentrating on creating wealth and building the EU&#8217;s leverage in world affairs.

Commentary by Michael Ivanovitch, an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and taught economics at Columbia Business School.

Germany’s problem with China goes well beyond trade issues

Jason Wu, Michelle Obama’s favorite designer, wants to expand in Asia | Make It International

What’s next for oil? | CNBC International

Andrew Wong 
Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/cape-town-water-crisis-cities-should-prepare-for-water-scarcity.html">Cities around the world should prepare for running out of water, experts say</a>
<ul>
<li>Cape Town&#8217;s recent water shortage crisis has raised global concern about the threat of water scarcity.</li>
<li>The increasing risks have cast a spotlight on the issue of water theft and mitigation efforts.</li>
</ul>
It&#8217;s called <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105045796?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
&#8220;Day Zero&#8221; 
</a>: when Cape Town, South Africa&#8217;s bustling port city, sees its water taps run dry, and its population thrust into a perilous situation.
Originally projected for this year, the impending crisis has been delayed in part by severe measures — the city instituted restrictions that amount to less than one sixth of an average American&#8217;s water consumption. Yet despite that effort, &#8220;Day Zero&#8221; is still projected to <a href="http://coct.co/water-dashboard/">arrive next year</a>.
And when it comes, the crisis will see the government switching off all the taps and rationing the resource through collection points.
That future isn&#8217;t just Cape Town&#8217;s. It&#8217;s a scenario cities around the globe may face, experts say.
It may be hard to fathom just how cities could be at risk of a water scarcity crisis when approximately 70 percent of the world is made up of the resource. The stark reality, however, is that the percentage of fresh water probably only amounts to about 2.5 percent, according to often-cited assessments.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/15010226/105110468-GettyImages-929526210.1910x1000.jpg" alt="A public swimming pool, in a suburb of Cape Town has been emptied due to local water restrictions on March 6, 2018." height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Morgana Wingard | Getty Images"/>
Even then, a significant supply is locked up in ice and snow, which means just 1 percent of all fresh water is easily accessible to the global population.
Inequality in access to water is also quickly becoming a problem. While the affluent can find ways to get access to water— through deliveries or in-built tanks — poorer populations are left to their own devices.
That situation oftentimes leads to water theft — for profit, for survival, or for both.
<h4>A &#8216;wake-up call&#8217;</h4>
A nation&#8217;s development has frequently come at the cost of undercutting its sources of clean water, Betsy Otto, director of the World Resources Institute&#8217;s global water program told CNBC. 
&#8220;For example, quite a bit of scientific evidence has shown that deforestation changed the hydrological cycle in the Amazon,&#8221; she said.
Although water scarcity is a very real and pervasive problem, experts said most cities are not immediately at risk of running out of water.
Still, it is extremely important that water scarcity is acknowledged as a global problem because cities should begin working on unique solutions to local problems now, according to Rebecca Keller, a senior science and technology analyst at intelligence firm Stratfor
&#8220;It won&#8217;t be the same exact scenario that Cape Town is facing,&#8221; Keller said. &#8220;It might be pollution, drought, drier climates or significant population growth.&#8221;
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/15010231/105110477-GettyImages-630128764.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="NurPhoto | Getty Images"/>
The troubles faced by Cape Town should serve as a &#8220;wake-up call&#8221; for other countries about the realities of increasing <a href="http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/aqueduct-water-stress-country-rankings-technical-note.pdf">water stress</a>, Otto said.
Water stress occurs when demand for the resource exceeds the available supply. It taxes the reserves and may lead to deterioration of fresh water resources.
In recent years, California <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/104243226?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
faced a drought 
</a> that lasted years, Australia survived the <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25617864/ns/us_news-environment/t/australias-decade-long-drought-likely-worsen/#.WsWeZcNuZhE">millennium drought</a>, and Sao Paulo faced a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/sao-paulo-worries-grow-serious-drought-grips-brazils-largest-city-n385136">water shortage crisis</a> in 2015 due to both drought and inefficient infrastructures.
Otto summed up the global state of preparedness for water scarcity, saying: &#8220;We&#8217;ve either under-invested in measures or allowed existing structures to fall apart.&#8221;
<h4>Water theft</h4>
The <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000938?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
United Nations&#8217; 
</a> 2010 recognition of water as a human right has complicated the issue of water theft, said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow in the foreign policy program at think-tank the Brookings Institution.
&#8220;The right to water does not mean the right to free water,&#8221; Felbab-Brown explained, saying many people had misunderstood the UN. &#8220;In the same manner that people have to pay for food, they should expect to pay for safe water.&#8221;
That sentiment hasn&#8217;t stopped outright water theft on a large scale in countries like Brazil, India and Mexico. Companies and individuals illegally tap into pipelines and reservoirs, or they find other ways to avoid water meters.
There&#8217;s no single solution to the issue, however, as the context of water theft varies between places, Felbab-Brown said. But, she pointed out, better law enforcement, water monitoring, and creating comprehensive databases, are good starting points for governments.
&#8220;Governments need to recognize that they can&#8217;t just apply law enforcement without providing legal alternatives,&#8221; she added.
As of now, water smuggling mostly operates within countries&#8217; borders, but it will eventually occur on an international scale, Felbab-Brown said. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cdn.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/15010235/105110470-GettyImages-468262202.1910x1000.jpg" alt="Ethiopian construction workers working on the Grand Renaissance Dam near the Sudanese-Ethiopian border on March 31, 2015." height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Zacharias Abubeker | AFP | Getty Images"/>
That could become a point of geopolitical tension between countries dealing with transboundary water issues, Keller said.
For an example of international water tensions, take the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam in the Nile, a $4 billion hydroelectric project financed by Ethiopia . It&#8217;s left Egypt fearing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/58f66390-dfda-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c">a potential disruption</a> to its fresh water supply.
<h4>Controling demand</h4>
Mitigating water scarcity has proven to be a tricky political subject because, in many countries, environmental or climate solutions tend to have a hard time gathering enough political support to become a reality.
It is also extremely expensive to build out new water supplies, dams and desalination plants.
&#8220;Unless there is an acute event — a severe drought for example — it is the [political] constraints that play out in a long time frame,&#8221; Keller said.
Consequently, many governments have done little to guide their citizens on water-efficient behavior. That can be implemented through price controls, Otto said, but it&#8217;s rarely a popular measure.
&#8220;There should be two tiers of pricing. Conservation pricing, which charges the minimum amount for water that is sufficient for basic needs, should be provided at low rates. Discretionary water use, which is anything beyond the necessary amount, should be charged more,&#8221; Otto said.
On a national level, she said, governments should encourage conversation about conservation issues. That is, saving water will always be cheaper than building or drilling for new sources, Otto added.
The good news, experts said, is there will be time for governments to start preparing for a Day Zero scenario.
&#8220;It&#8217;s not going to be a surprise. The city is not going to run out of water suddenly,&#8221; Keller said.
<h4>WATCH: Michael Phelps on the quest to &#8216;Save Water&#8217;</h4>

Cities around the world should prepare for running out of water, experts say

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Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/10/nigeria-president-buhari-to-run-for-election-next-year-markets-arent-so-happy.html">Nigeria&#8217;s president is running for re-election and markets are not happy</a>
<ul>
<li>Nigeria&#8217;s President Muhammadu Buhari is to contest his party&#8217;s nomination for next February&#8217;s presidential election, it was announced Monday.</li>
<li>Stocks in Lagos dropped over 1 percent on the news and have hovered around the flatline since.</li>
<li>Buhari&#8217;s leadership of late has been subject to speculation over his health, for which he sought treatment in London for several months last year.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/12/19/104907559-GettyImages-874175852.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="next24online | NurPhoto | Getty Images"/>
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is to contest his party&#8217;s nomination for next February&#8217;s presidential election, leading to a rather downbeat reaction on the Nigerian stock exchange.
Stocks in Lagos dropped over 1 percent after his announcement Monday, Reuters reported, hitting a three-month low. Sentiment remained subdued Tuesday as stocks hovered around the flatline.
In fact, Nigeria&#8217;s stocks have been on a downwards trajectory for over a month.
Buhari&#8217;s leadership of late has been subject to speculation over his health, for which he sought treatment in London for several months last year. The president, 75, has not disclosed the reason for the treatment.
He is currently in the U.K. for talks with Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Conference in London next week.
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In 2015, Buhari was the first Nigerian opposition leader to win an election. Representing the center-left All Progressives Congress (APC), he beat then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. Buhari previously ruled Nigeria in the 1980s as head of a military regime.
But, Nigeria has struggled on both its economic and security fronts since Buhari&#8217;s landmark election victory.
In late March, it emerged that Nigeria&#8217;s national budget announcement, initially planned for January, had been <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105097709?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
pushed back to the end of May 
</a>.
The country experienced its first full-year recession in 25 years in 2016, with its economy hit by low oil prices. Economic growth remains sluggish, expected by the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000936?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
International Monetary Fund 
</a> to be 1.9 percent for 2018, well below the emerging market average of 4.9 percent.
But, there has been some economic positive news. Nigeria&#8217;s state revenue for February edged up by 19 billion naira ($53 million), thanks to higher crude oil exports and prices.
Nigeria is one of the largest economies in Africa, and with over 180 million inhabitants is the continent&#8217;s largest population. In its manifesto, the APC pledged to create 1 million new jobs per year.
Islamist militant group Boko Haram continues to threaten the security of civilians in the northeast of the country. Meanwhile, militant attacks also continue in the Niger delta region, the country&#8217;s oil production hub.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/03/29/105097739-GettyImages-939629074.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Pius Utomi Ekpei | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;Buhari is likely to face opposition for the APC ticket, although as a sitting president he is in the strongest position to secure the nomination,&#8221; Imad Mesdoua, senior consultant for sub-Saharan Africa at research firm Control Risks, told CNBC via telephone.
&#8220;The vote in 2019 will be competitive, but (Buhari) will argue that he needs more time to improve national security and implement anti-corruption measures, key promises he had pledged to see through during the 2015 election.&#8221;
But one former leader has espoused a renewal in Nigerian politics. &#8220;The older generation must give way for the new one,&#8221; ex-President Ibrahim Babaginda said earlier this month, as reported by local press. &#8220;We have become analog, but this is a digital age. So the young people should be supported to use their digital knowledge to move the country forward.&#8221;
Babangida and another former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, who supported Buhari previously, have since spoken against the incumbent.
There has been a &#8220;crystallization of criticism among some power-brokers against government performance&#8221; since Buhari came to power, Mesdoua said. &#8220;Both Obasanjo and Babangida criticized the government&#8217;s performance in economic management, security and poverty alleviation but also called for a new generation of leaders.&#8221;

Nigeria’s president is running for re-election and markets are not happy

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Source: <a href="http://https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/zimbabwe-us-could-lift-sanctions-if-mnangagwa-holds-fair-elections.html">The US could lift sanctions on Zimbabwe — but only if the new president holds fair elections</a>
<ul>
<li>U.S. Senators Christopher Coons and Jeff Flake met with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa in Harare over the weekend to &#8220;explore ways of strengthening the bilateral relationship,&#8221; according to the U.S. embassy in Zimbabwe.</li>
<li>Coons and Flake are behind a proposed amendment to the U.S.&#8217; Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act which outlines the steps the African country must fulfill for U.S.-imposed sanctions to be lifted, namely the holding of &#8220;free and fair&#8221; elections.</li>
</ul>
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/03/19/105073957-GettyImages-878420096.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Wilfred Kajese | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"/>
Two U.S. senators have met with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa as part of an exploratory trip which could lead to the U.S. lifting sanctions on the once-pariah African state.
U.S. Senators Christopher Coons and Jeff Flake&#8217;s visit to the Zimbabwean capital of Harare over the weekend was to &#8220;explore ways of strengthening the bilateral relationship,&#8221; said a tweet by the U.S. embassy there. The two politicians met with the new president, as well as members of the opposition and civil society.
Coons and Flake, both on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, are behind a proposed amendment to the U.S.&#8217; Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZDERA). The bill details the steps which Zimbabwe must take for U.S. sanctions to be lifted, namely the holding of free and fair elections.
&#8220;The president (Mnangagwa) has made a commitment to take action, but some of the important actions required for progress towards the conditions for free and fair and credible elections have not yet happened,&#8221; Coons told the media, <a href="http://www.thezimbabwemail.com/main/trump-opens-window-for-mnangagwa/">as reported by the Zimbabwe Mail</a>.
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Mnangagwa has said that he is committed to holding open elections in July of this year and has invited external observers to the expected event.
It is hoped that such elections could lead to the removal of U.S.-imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe, which has seen its economy crippled by decades of mismanagement under former President Robert Mugabe.
But, &#8220;Lifting U.S. sanctions is time consuming and not straightforward,&#8221; Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at think tank Chatham House, told CNBC via e-mail. &#8220;The easiest way would be for the Zimbabwean government to prove that it&#8217;s fulfilled the requirements of ZDERA.&#8221;
Nonetheless, Coons and Flake&#8217;s visit could symbolize the latest in a warming of relations between the U.S. and Zimbabwe. In March, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/11/opinion/zimbabwe-emmerson-mnangagwa.html">Mnangagwa penned a column in the New York Times</a> which highlighted Zimbabwe&#8217;s newfound openness.
In February this year, U.S. chain Pizza Hut opened its first branch in Harare. The move, according to the <a href="https://zw.usembassy.gov/american-franchise-pizza-hut-opens-zimbabwe/">U.S. embassy&#8217;s website</a>, &#8220;is a demonstration that American companies see attractive business prospects in Zimbabwe.&#8221;
&#8220;We would hope to expand the people to people relationships, relationships between companies, hospitals, researchers, but also much more investment from the United States to reviving the economy to rebuilding infrastructure and advancing the country,&#8221; Coons <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/04/us-sets-terms-to-revive-zim-business-ties/">told Zimbabwean news outlet NewsDay</a>.
The U.S. has imposed financial sanctions on Zimbabwe since 2001, in response to human rights abuses by Mugabe. The sanctions include financial and travel restrictions, as well as banning the transfer of defense items or services.
Last week <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/105105579?__source=cnbcafrica|inline|story|&amp;par=cnbcafrica &amp;doc="> 
Mnangagwa was in China 
</a> on a five-day state visit, his first outside of Africa since coming to power in November last year. He met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://media.cnbc.com/i/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/04/03/105105670-GettyImages-941280668.1910x1000.jpg" alt="" height="1000" width="1910" data-licensor-name="Greg Baker | AFP | Getty Images"/>
&#8220;The new president (of Zimbabwe) can expect to get both financial aid, more help with infrastructure (including the expansion of Harare airport) and technological assistance, as well as Chinese participation in agricultural projects,&#8221; Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC last week of the visit.
In what could signify further rapprochement with the West, it has been reported that Zimbabwe is in talks to re-join the Commonwealth, a 53-nation bloc consisting of the U.K. and its former colonial territories. But, a spokesperson confirmed to CNBC on Friday that the organization has not received a formal application from Zimbabwe to do so.
Mugabe withdrew Zimbabwe from the group in 2003 following a dispute over sanctions.
Zimbabwe is a former British colony, previously known as Rhodesia, and was declared independent in 1980.

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