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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-613534" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Emerging markets have found themselves between a rock and a hard place amid an escalating trade war, seemingly forced to choose between China and the U.S. But there’s another way: they’re backing themselves.



“Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, have to negotiate with the U.S. to come up with some sort of a soft-landing spot,” Ong Kian Ming, Malaysia’s former deputy minister of international trade and industry, told CNBC. “But at the same time, it doesn’t prevent us from working with other countries — not to screw the U.S., but to benefit ourselves.”



Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to an escalating global trade war. Goldman Sachs has cut its growth forecasts for Asian emerging markets, saying smaller export-oriented economies are the most exposed to the tariff turmoil.&nbsp;



The bank’s 2025 GDP forecast for Vietnam is now 5.3% — significantly lower than consensus estimates of 6.5% cited by Goldman. The bank expects Malaysia to grow by 3.8% (compared to 4.7%) next year, and Thailand to expand by 1.5% (compared to 2.7%).



Southeast Asian nations were among the hardest hit on U.S. President Donald Trump’s self-declared “Liberation Day.” They’re due to be hit with tariffs of up to 49% after a 90-day temporary reduction to 10% on all countries (bar China) is lifted.



It means the region faces a difficult balancing act as the U.S. is not its only strategic partner — China also plays a crucial role for medium-term growth and development objectives for many emerging Asian economies, according to Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior ASEAN economist at the OCBC Bank.&nbsp;



Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia earlier this month in an effort to promote Beijing as a pillar of stability and boost ties within the region. He also called on the Global South “to uphold the common interests of developing countries.”



And it appears to be happening.



UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan told CNBC’s Squawk Box this month that intra-regional trade is growing.



“One interesting indicator that we have from the last year, in this century, is that South-South trade has already been growing faster than North-North trade,” she said. “So the acceleration of South-South trade, I think, will take a new dynamism because of the new trade policy of the U.S.”



Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysian prime minister and current rotating chair of ASEAN, echoed this sentiment, calling for more trade and greater economic integration within the region in a keynote speech at the ASEAN Investment Summit in early April.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-no-easy-solutions-nbsp"><a></a>No easy solutions&nbsp;</h2>



While there are no “easy solutions,” emerging economies are expected to try different approaches in a bid to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, according to Lavanya Venkateswaran,&nbsp;an economist at OCBC.



“In the near-term, the authorities will have to tap fiscal and monetary policy tools to provide counter-cyclical support to affected sectors of the economy.&nbsp;For the medium-term, the authorities understand the need to diversify trade and investment partners,” she said.



It helps that the so-called “China+1” strategy still holds in the medium-term, she added. Many export-oriented Southeast Asia economies were big beneficiaries of the strategy during the first Trump administration, receiving economic boosts as companies shifted production away from China to their shores.&nbsp;



In Cambodia, for&nbsp;instance, according to data from the World Bank, Cambodia’s exports of goods and services made up 55.5% of its gross domestic product in 2018, before Trump imposed his first China tariffs — by 2023, this figure had risen to 66.9%.



Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, agreed,&nbsp;saying that these emerging markets are more attractive than China as export manufacturing hubs in the long term.



“It’s also worth bearing in mind that these tariffs do nothing to eliminate the labor cost competitiveness of EM Asia ex-China economies (versus China), which will remain a big selling point over the long term to multinationals,” he told CNBC by email. “New supply chains won’t be created overnight.”

108136098-17455036212025-04-24t134926z_586299269_rc2d4ea8bz9f_rtrmadp_0_usa-stocks

Emerging markets are betting on a post-tariffs winner — and it’s not China or the U.S.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-613531" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4.jpg 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo; via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



The online store for the Trump Organization on Thursday began selling red hats and T-shirts bearing the message “Trump 2028,” fueling fresh questions about President Donald Trump attempting to seek a third term in the White House despite a constitutional bar on doing so.



The White House, when asked about the apparel, referred CNBC to the&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;Organization. The Trump Organization did not respond to a request for comment.



White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told NBC News, “But it’s a cool hat and I suspect it will be highly popular!” The hat costs $50, and a red shirt bearing the “Trump 2028″ logo and “Rewrite the Rules” underneath it is selling for $36.



Trump has repeatedly teased the idea that he would run for a third term as president. This would require amending the U.S. Constitution.



The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution states in part, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” Trump was elected in 2016 and then again in 2024.



In late March, Trump did not rule out the possibility of seeking reelection in 2028.



“A lot of people want me to do it,” Trump told NBC News then. “But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”



Asked by NBC if he wanted a third term, Trump said, “I like working.”



“I’m not joking,” Trump said. “But I’m not — it is far too early to think about it.”



“There are methods which you could do it,” the president said, referring to serving another term.



“I suspect I won’t be running again, unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out,’” Trump reportedly told Republicans during a private meeting after his November electoral victory over Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris.



In May 2024, while speaking to members of the National Rifle Association, Trump said, ″I don’t know, are we going to be considered three-term or two-term? Are we three-term or two-term if we win?″



Former White House advisor Steve Bannon said on “Real Time with Bill Maher” on April 11 that “President Trump is going to run for a third term, and President Trump is going to be elected again.”



“On the afternoon of January 20th of 2029, he’s going to be president of the United States,” Bannon predicted.



Bannon also said, “We have a team” of people looking to enable a third term for Trump.



Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., in early January introduced a House resolution to amend the Constitution to allow Trump and any other future president to be elected to a third term.



Ogles’ resolution is tailored specifically to permit Trump to serve a third term but not to allow the three living two-term former presidents to serve a third term.



″No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than three times, nor be elected to any additional term after being elected to two consecutive terms,” the amendment states.



Unlike Trump, former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama all served two consecutive terms. Former President Joe Biden served one term.

250424-donald-trump-hat-ew-203p-dbe2c4

Trump Organization sells ‘Trump 2028’ hat and shirt, fueling questions about third term bid

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-613528" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/108136511-1745552401952-gettyimages-2211163539-AFP_43ER464-1-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">US President Donald Trump steps off Marine One upon arrival at the Leesburg Executive Airport Landing Zone in Leesburg, Virginia, on April 24, 2025. Alex Wroblewski | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday refuted China’s claims that there were no ongoing trade discussions between Beijing and Washington.



“They had a meeting this morning &#8230; It doesn’t matter who ‘they’ is. We may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China,” Trump told reporters.



The statement followed China’s denial of any talks with the U.S. and calls for abolishing “unilateral” tariff measures for resolving trade issues.



“At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed.



“If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem &#8230; it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.



Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there could be an easing in tensions with China. The White House earlier this month added 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with duties of its own and increased restrictions on critical minerals exports to the U.S.



The Commerce Ministry’s comments echoed those of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who said on Thursday afternoon that there were no ongoing talks, according to state media.



Both spokespersons held to the official line that China would be willing to talk to the U.S. subject to Beijing being treated as an equal.



“China definitely wants to see the trade war deescalate, as it hurts both economies,”&nbsp;said Yue Su, principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit. “However, due to the inconsistency of Trump’s policies and the lack of clarity around what he actually wants, China’s strategy has shifted from focusing on ‘what you need’ to ‘what I need.’ Their request for the U.S. to cancel ‘unilateral’ tariffs reflects that shift.”



China earlier this week threatened countermeasures against countries that might make deals with the U.S. at the expense of Beijing’s interests.



“We also need to recognize that this is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for China in terms of U.S.-China relations,” Su said. “I&nbsp;wouldn’t be surprised if China adopts a more hawkish stance if the U.S. continues to escalate tensions.”



Several Wall Street banks have cut their China gross domestic product outlook in the last few weeks in light of the tariffs and escalating tensions with the U.S.



The Commerce Ministry on Thursday&nbsp;emphasized government and business efforts to help companies sell goods meant for exports to the Chinese market instead.



“From China’s perspective, any meaningful negotiations will likely require the US to reduce tariffs to the previous 20% or even lower level,” said Jianwei Xu, senior economist for Greater China, at Natixis.



“But for the Trump administration, however, reducing tariffs too far could raise uncomfortable questions: What was the point of the confrontation if we end up back where we started?”



The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis. But in the last several years, Southeast Asia has surpassed the European Union to become China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis.



Correction. Yue Su is principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit. An earlier version misstated the name of the organization.

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