JOHANNESBURG, Dec 14 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa imposed further COVID-19 restrictions on Monday, closing down beaches on the eastern coast and limiting large public gatherings ahead of the festive season, as the country looks to slow a sharp rise in infections.



South Africa, which has recorded 866,127 total coronavirus cases, has seen a sharp spike in infections since the start of December with reported cases hovering around 8,000 per day in last few days, from around 3,000 in November.



The country&#8217;s reported daily cases in the first wave peaked around 14,000 in July.



&#8220;Given the rate at which new cases have grown over the last two weeks, there is every possibility that if we do not act urgently &#8230; the second wave will be more severe than the first wave,&#8221; President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a televised address.



Alcohol sales will now be permitted only between Monday and Thursday, and the curfew will start one hour earlier and be from2300 to 0400, he said.



Ramaphosa said the main reasons for the sudden rise in cases have been large gatherings and travel.



Beaches and public parks in districts with the highest number of infections will be closed from Dec. 16 to Jan. 3 in the tourism hotspots of the Eastern Cape and the Garden Route.



Some other beaches will also be closed and on other festivals, live music and live performances will be prohibited, he said. Restaurants and bars will have to close by 10 p.m.across the country.



The sweeping restrictions just before the festive season will batter the hospitality, travel and tourism industry which was the hardest hit in the first lockdown in April.



Ramaphosa said South Africa has concluded all processes to ensure its participation in the World Health Organization&#8217;sCOVAX facility and initial vaccines will cover 10% of its population in the early part of next year.



(Reporting by Promit Mukherjee; Editing by Mfuneko Toyana and Sonya Hepinstall)



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

105500770-1539253589126gettyimages-909184932

South Africa tightens restrictions further as COVID-19 infections rise

Dec 14 (Reuters) &#8211; AstraZeneca has removed a study 
sub-group with children from a trial of its experimental 
COVID-19 vaccine in Britain, U.S. clinical trial registers 
showed on Monday, as the drugmaker seeks to gather unifying 
evidence on the vaccine&#8217;s efficacy. 
AstraZeneca and Oxford University, once front-runners in the 
race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, have been overtaken by 
Pfizer and German partner BioNTech after a 
series of stumbles, including a global pause in trials and 
divergent data for different dose regimens. 
The following are details of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine 
effort.
TYPE OF VACCINE 
* Called AZD1222 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, the vaccine is a 
recombinant 
viral vector vaccine, meaning a virus is used as a means of 
delivering the vaccine. 
* It uses a weakened version of a chimpanzee common cold 
virus 
that encodes instructions for making proteins from the novel 
coronavirus to generate an immune response and prevent 
infection.
DOSAGE, PROTECTION DURATION AND STORAGE 
* Two regimens are being tested: one in which recipients get 
two 
full doses, and another with half a dose followed by a full 
dose. 
* The half-dose first regimen was found to be 90% effective 
in a 
subset of trial subjects. The success rate was 62% with the 
originally planned two full doses, based on interim data.
* Immune response could last at least a year. 
* The vaccine can be stored, transported and handled at 
normal 
refrigerated conditions for at least six months, making it 
logistically easier to transport than Pfizer&#8217;s vaccine.
EXPECTED DOSAGE PRICE 
* Italy&#8217;s health ministry said in June the vaccine would 
cost 
about 2.5 euros ($2.80) per dose in Europe. 
* AstraZeneca has said it will be able to manufacture the 
vaccine 
at a few dollars per dose. 
* Pricing in Latin America is not expected to exceed $4 per 
dose.
* Serum Institute of India has said it would price the 
vaccine at 
$3 per dose for India and other emerging economies.
* Sources told Reuters it could cost $4 to $5 per dose in 
Bangladesh. 
* Costs in other regions have not yet been disclosed. 
* AstraZeneca has said it would not profit from the vaccine 
during 
the pandemic, but a report from the Financial Times in October 
showed the company can declare when it considers the pandemic to 
have ended in its deals for the vaccine. 
* AstraZeneca will look to profit from wealthier countries 
at the 
&#8220;appropriate time&#8221;.
TESTING AND DATA
* Trials combining the vaccine with Russia&#8217;s Sputnik V will 
start 
by the end of the year, and Russia wants to jointly produce the 
new vaccine if it is proven to be effective. 
* Vastly divergent performance with different dose regimens 
has 
called for more clarity on the vaccine&#8217;s efficacy which averaged 
70.4%, well below vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna Inc.
* Serum Institute of India will continue to test a two full 
dose 
regimen of the vaccine. 
* AstraZeneca had to pause global trials on Sept. 6 after an 
unexplained illness in a participant. 
* Trial of the vaccine in the United States resumed in 
October 
after other countries had ended their pause.
* AZD1222 produces an immune response in both old and young 
adults, and also led to lower adverse responses among the 
elderly, AstraZeneca said in October. 
* The vaccine also accurately follows genetic instructions 
programmed into it by its developers, according to an analysis 
by independent scientists. 
* Brazil said in October that a trial volunteer had died.
* A source told Reuters the Brazilian trial would have been 
suspended if the volunteer who died had received the COVID-19 
vaccine, although the death was reported to be a suicide.
* In July, data from early-stage trials published in The 
Lancet 
showed the vaccine was safe and produced an immune response.
GLOBAL TRIALS
Below are other regions where testing of the vaccine is 
being carried out or planned: (In alphabetical order of regions)
REGION STAGE OF STATUS VOLUNTEERS DATA EXPECTED 
DEVELOPMENT COMPLETION 
Brazil Phase III Recruiting, 10,300 First data Sept. 2021 (https://bit.ly/2GAeB4K) 
restarted anticipated published in (https://bit.ly/2I4BNIz) 
after pause , with late 
in early participant November 
September s aged 18 
years and 
older 
Chile Unknown To begin Unknown Unknown Unknown
China Unknown To begin Unknown Unknown Unknown
India Phase II/III Ongoing, 1,600 Not In seven months 
restarted anticipated available from August (https://bit.ly/3nAwXTC) 
after pause , with 
in early participant 
September s aged 18 
years and 
older 
Japan Phase I/II Active, not 256 Not Nov. 2021 (https://bit.ly/3nAnImj) 
recruiting. anticipated available 
Restarted , with 
after pause participant 
in early s aged 18 
September years and 
older 
Kenya Phase Ib/II Ongoing 400 Not In approximately 
anticipated available two years (https://bit.ly/362fsUy) 
, with 
participant 
s aged 18 
years and 
older, and 
will only 
enrol 
healthcare 
workers 
Peru Unknown To begin Unknown Unknown Unknown
Russia Phase III Suspended, 100 Not March 2021 (https://bit.ly/36NKpxr) 
on hold anticipated applicable 
till , with 
Russian participant 
approval s aged 18 
following years and 
pause in older 
September 
Russia, in Unknown Not yet Unknown Unknown Unknown (https://bit.ly/2KljQ9F) 
combination recruiting number of 
with Sputnik adults aged 
V 18 and 
older 
South Africa Phase I/II Active, not 2,130 First data Dec. 2021 (https://bit.ly/2Gy8mhS) 
recruiting. enrolled, was 
Restarted with both anticipated 
after pause HIV-uninfec in Q4 2020, 
in early ted adults but the 
September and people principal 
living with investigator 
HIV told Reuters 
that 
efficacy 
results may 
not be ready 
for months
UK Phase I/II Active, not 1,090 Initial data Oct. 2021 (https://bit.ly/3n81UxJ) 
recruiting enrolled, readout in (https://bit.ly/2HY2pe5) 
with July 2020 
participant 
s aged 
between 18 
and 55 
UK Phase II/III Recruiting, 12,390 First data Sept. 2021 (https://bit.ly/34EOHVj) 
restarted anticipated published in (https://bit.ly/2HSU37G) 
after pause , with late 
in early participant November 
September s aged 18 
years and 
older. Also 
includes 
HIV 
infected 
adults in 
one group. 
Previously 
included 
children 
above 5 
years of 
age. 
U.S. with Phase III Recruiting, 40,000 First data Feb. 2023 (https://bit.ly/30O4XCl) 
global sites restarted anticipated anticipated 
in late , with in H1 2021 
October participant 
after pause s aged 18 
in early years and 
September older
DATA AND REGULATORY TIMELINE
* The lead developer had said in July the vaccine could be 
rolled 
out by year-end, but the delivery and testing timeline has since 
been pushed back. 
* Experts have predicted a safe and effective vaccine could 
take 
12-18 months to develop. 
* Data read-out submitted to regulators across the world to 
seek 
approval.
REGULATORY REVIEWS 
(Most recent first)
REGION/REGULATOR SUBMISSION/R STATUS FORMAL FURTHER 
EVIEW APPLICATION 
India/Central Accelerated Launched in Submitted by 
Drugs Standard review December and is Serum 
Control seeking more data Institute [nL4N2IN0M7 
Organization to make a decision 
on emergency 
authorisation 
Britain/Medicine Rolling Launched in late Not submitted 
s and Healthcare review Oct, and will look 
Products at all data to 
Regulatory determine which 
Agency dosing regimen is 
best to use 
Canada/Health Rolling Launched in Oct Not submitted 
Canada submission 
Europe/European Rolling Launched in Oct Not submitted 
Medicines Agency review
* The World Health Organization expects to make decisions on 
whether to give emergency use approval to COVID-19 vaccines, 
including AstraZeneca&#8217;s, in the coming weeks, its chief 
scientist said on Friday.
TARGET DOSES/GLOBAL CAPACITY OF SUPPLY 
* More than 3 billion doses are planned. 
* The company will have as many as 200 million doses by the 
end of 
2020, and 700 million doses could be ready globally as soon as 
the end of the first quarter of 2021. 
* Currently, AstraZeneca is keeping the vaccine frozen in 
large 
containers and will only add a final ingredient, put it into 
vials and refrigerate it when the vaccine gets closer to 
approval.
TIE-UPS 
* Even before studies showed any signs of efficacy, 
AstraZeneca 
had signed several supply and manufacturing deals around the 
world. 
* It has also joined with IQVIA to speed up testing.
* AstraZeneca has been granted protection from future 
liability 
claims related to the vaccine by most of the countries with 
which it has struck supply agreements, a senior executive told 
Reuters in July.
MANUFACTURING DEALS
(Most recent first)
FIRM BASED IN DEAL VALUE FOR FURTHER 
CSL Ltd Australia Undisclosed Additional 20 
million requested by 
Australian 
government, 
approximately 30 
million doses 
already being 
manufactured 
Halix B.V. Netherlands Undisclosed Commercial 
manufacture of the 
vaccine 
Siam Thailand Undisclosed Manufacture and 
Bioscience, supply the vaccine 
SCG in Thailand and 
other nations in 
Southeast Asia 
Albany U.S. Undisclosed Produce millions of 
Molecular doses through 
Research sterile finishing 
services at its 
manufacturing plant 
in Albuquerque, New 
Mexico 
Oxford UK 15 million Unknown doses for 
Biomedica pounds to large-scale 
reserve commercial 
manufacturi manufacture under 
ng expanded deal 
capacity, 
further 35 
million 
pounds plus 
costs 
payable in 
certain 
situations 
Catalent U.S. Undisclosed Making the drug 
substance used in 
the vaccine at its 
Maryland facility. 
AZ&#8217;s second deal 
with firm 
Foundation Mexico Undisclosed Latin American 
of Mexican supply with 
billionaire Argentina, excluding 
Carlos Slim Brazil, could reach 
250 million 
mAbxience of Argentina Undisclosed Initially producing 
the INSUD 150 million doses 
Group for Latin America, 
excluding Brazil 
Kangtai Bio China Undisclosed Annual production 
capacity of at least 
100 million doses 
this year, and at 
least 200 million 
doses by end-2021 
Emergent U.S. $174 Undisclosed doses in 
BioSolutions million second deal with AZ
SK South Korea Undisclosed Undiluted solutions 
Bioscience of the vaccine until 
early 2021 
R-Pharm Russia Undisclosed Unknown doses 
Daiichi Japan Undisclosed Unknown doses 
Sankyo
Fundação Brazil $127 About 30 million 
Osvaldo Cruz million doses 
(Fiocruz) 
Symbiosis Scotland Undisclosed Clinical trial 
Pharmaceutic supply 
al 
Cobra U.S. Undisclosed One million doses 
Biosciences per month 
Catalent U.S. Undisclosed Vial filling and 
packaging capacity 
at its manufacturing 
facility in Anagni, 
Italy 
Emergent U.S. $87 million 300 million doses 
BioSolutions
Serum India Undisclosed One billion doses 
Institute of for low and 
India middle-income 
countries. 400 
million before 
end-2020 were 
expected previously 
Oxford UK Undisclosed Manufacturing 
Biomedica unknown number of 
doses
SUPPLY DEALS
(Most recent first)
REGION/GROUP DOSES FUNDING EXPECTED FURTHER 
DELIVERIES 
Philippines 2.6 million Undisclosed Shipment expected 
in May 
Thailand Addition under Previously First batch 
further agreement approved budget expected to be 
unknown, of 6 billion available in {nL4N2IC2R6] 
previously 26 baht ($199 mid-2021 
million doses million) 
Bangladesh 30 million from Undisclosed &#8220;Whenever the 
Serum Institute of vaccine is ready&#8221; 
India 
Argentina 22 million Undisclosed Depends on trials 
being successful 
and obtaining 
necessary 
approvals 
Chile 14.4 million Undisclosed Unknown 
Spain 31.6 million as Undisclosed Between Dec. 2020 
part of a European and June 2021 
Union scheme 
Switzerland 5.3 million Undisclosed Unknown 
Indonesia 100 million Undisclosed First batch 
expected to be 
available by first 
half of 2021 
Canada Up to 20 million Undisclosed Unknown 
doses 
Australia &#8220;Enough&#8221; for Undisclosed Unknown 
population of 25 
million, free of 
cost 
European 300 million, with 750 million By end-2020 
Union option of euros for 300 
additional 100 million doses 
million 
Latin Initially produce Estimated at First half 2021 
America, 150 million doses, $600 million 
excluding and eventually for the first 
Brazil make at least 400 150 million 
million doses 
Japan 120 million doses Undisclosed 30 million doses 
by March 2021 
China Aims for annual Undisclosed By end-2020 
production 
capacity of at 
least 100 million 
doses this year, 
and at least 200 
million doses by 
the end of next 
year 
South Korea 20 million Undisclosed Shipments would 
begin no later 
than March, and 
vaccinations may 
start in the first 
half of next year 
Russia Unknown Undisclosed Unknown 
Israel Unknown Undisclosed Unknown 
Brazil Initially receive $356 million Unknown 
100 million doses 
Serum One billion, Undisclosed 400 million before 
Institute of unspecified number end-2020 were 
India of doses will go expected 
to India previously 
Epidemic 300 million $750 million, Some before end- 
response with $383 from 2020 
group CEPI CEPI 
and Vaccine 
alliance 
GAVI 
United 300 million $1.2 billion Was earlier 
States expected by Oct. 
2020 
United 100 million 84 million 4 million in 2020. 
Kingdom pounds Earlier about 30 
million doses were 
expected with 
initial deliveries [nL8N2IO2YJ 
by Sept/Oct. 2020. 
Initial supply to 
come from Europe.
(Sources: Reuters reporting, media releases, clinical trial 
registers, medical journals, World Health Organization)
(Reporting by Pushkala Aripaka, Tanishaa Nadkar and Aakash 
Jagadeesh Babu in Bengaluru; Editing by Jason Neely, Bill 
Berkrot, William Maclean)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

Development of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine hits speed bumps

By Julien Pretot
PARIS, Dec 14 (Reuters) &#8211; French officials were buzzing in anticipation when the 2023 Rugby World Cup draw was made on Monday and although the tournament is nearly three years away, they have made plans to cover every eventuality.
Three-star chef Guy Savoy drew hosts France with perennial favourites and triple world champions New Zealand in Pool A at a ceremony opened by president Emmanuel Macron at the former Stock Exchange in central Paris.
France could take on South Africa or Ireland in the quarter-finals, with Australia looming as possible semi-final opponents.
The French will play the tournament&#8217;s opening game but organisers said they needed time to decided who they will face.
&#8220;Obviously, fans would love to see France v New Zealand as the opening game but we also need to keep the interest of the competition alive throughout of the Pool phase,&#8221; France 2023 CEO Claude Atcher told a news conference.
&#8220;I know it&#8217;s what fans would want,&#8221; said France scrumhalf Antoine Dupont.
Italy are also possible opponents for the curtain-riser which organisers are confident will be played in a festive atmosphere &#8211; far from the gloom of a coronavirus-ravaged 2020.
&#8220;France is a rugby-loving country. We are preparing for this event at a very tough time. The nation is behind France. Everyone is suffering at the moment with us. The COVID-19 crisis is terrible,&#8221; Macron said.
&#8220;In 2023, we want to offer the best of France: the French way of life &#8211; friendliness, gastronomy, parties and culture.&#8221;
Tickets will go on sale in March, 2021. Prices will start at 15 euros for non-France matches and 30 euros for France games.
Should the pandemic not be over, however, organisers have taken out insurance.
&#8220;If in 2023 we are still unsure if people will be back in stadiums we will have bigger problems than the Rugby World Cup. We do have cancellation insurance in the event of a pandemic,&#8221; Atcher said.
&#8220;The World Cup starts now. We now know who&#8217;s facing who,&#8221; said French federation president Bernard Laporte.
&#8220;New Zealand are one of the best teams in the world, there&#8217;s nothing new. The only advantage (in playing them in the Pool phase) is that you can only face them again in the final,&#8221; he joked.
Coach Fabien Galthie, under whose guidance Les Bleus have regained pride by winning seven of nine tests in 2020, is confident playing the World Cup on home soil will boost his team.
&#8220;To play at home is going to be a fantastic challenge for each player who plays for France,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;It&#8217;s going to be a big motivation&#8230; We will be ready to play our best rugby. There will be pressure but we&#8217;ll have the freedom to play our best.&#8221; (Reporting by Julien Pretot; Editing by Ed Osmond)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

Rugby-French organisers anticipate joyful World Cup, but ready for the worst

KHARTOUM, Dec 14 (Reuters) &#8211; A U.S. decision to remove Sudan from a list of state sponsors of terrorism came into effect on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, ending a designation in place since 1993 that has weighed on the Sudanese economy and curbed financial assistance.



The delisting provides a boost to transitional authorities that took over after the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir last year and are grappling with a deep economic crisis.



A 45-day U.S. Congressional review period followed President Donald Trump&#8217;s announcement that he would end the listing, days before he announced that Israel and Sudan intend to normalise relations.



&#8220;This achievement was made possible by the efforts of Sudan&#8217;s civilian-led transitional government to chart a bold new course away from the legacy of the Bashir regime and, in particular, to meet the statutory and policy criteria for rescission,&#8221; Pompeo said in a statement issued in Washington.



Pompeo said the move represented a fundamental change for bilateral ties towards greater cooperation.



The U.S. embassy in Khartoum had earlier announced Sudan&#8217;s imminent official removal from the terrorism list.



Sudan had been engaged in talks with the United States for months, and paid a negotiated $335 million settlement to victims of attacks on U.S. embassies in East Africa who had won much larger sums against Sudan in court.



A process to restore Sudan&#8217;s sovereign immunity and release the settlement money has been stalled in Congress.



&#8220;LIBERATED&#8221;



&#8220;We have been liberated from the global blockade which we were forced into by the behavior of the ousted regime,&#8221; Sudan&#8217;s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said in a statement.



&#8220;This achievement&#8230; contributes to economic reforms, attracting investments and remittances through official channels, creating new job opportunities for young people, and many other positives.&#8221;



The price of the dollar on Sudan&#8217;s widely used black market dropped to 240 from 258 Sudanese pounds on Monday, against an official rate of 55 pounds.



The United States listed Sudan in 1993 on the grounds that Bashir&#8217;s regime was harboring militant groups. It cut Sudan off from financial assistance and investment, and from the global banking system.



Removal from the list will allow Sudan to seek financing from international lenders and negotiate relief on $60 bln in foreign debt.



Sudan also hopes to gain access to equipment and software for healthcare, energy, transport, education and infrastructure, Hamdok&#8217;s office said.



&#8220;This decision has given us hope that our circumstances will improve,&#8221; said Mohamed Hassan, a 58-year-old private sector employee in Khartoum.



(Additional reporting and writing by Nafisa Eltahir in Dubai; Editing by Aidan Lewis, Angus Macswan and Gareth Jones) 



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

U.S. to remove Sudan from terrorism list on Monday – embassy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="624" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image-127-1110x624.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-393775" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image-127-1110x624.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image-127-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image-127-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image-127-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/image-127.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>Eskom H1 results with CEO Andre de Ruyte</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Dec 14 (Reuters) &#8211; South African power company Eskom made a profit of 83 million rand ($5.5 million) in the six months to the end of September as higher electricity tariffs offset lower sales during the COVID-19 pandemic, it said on Monday



However, the state-owned utility, which is reliant on government bailouts, said its performance would deteriorate in the second half of its financial year and it would report an annual loss of about 22 billion rand.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-watch-eskom-h1-results">Watch: Eskom H1 Results</h2>





Eskom tends to report stronger results in the first six months of its fiscal year because of factors including higher demand during the southern hemisphere&#8217;s winter, lower purchases from independent power producers, and less routine maintenance.



In the six months to the end of September 2019, Eskom made a revised 1.9 billion rand loss.



Eskom said at a news conference that its debt had fallen to about 464 billion rand by the end of September from 484 billion rand in March as repayments outstripped new debt raised.($1 = 14.9999 rand)(Reporting by Alexander Winning; Editing by David Clarke)



(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2020. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

Eskom H1 results with CEO Andre de Ruyte

South Africa’s Eskom reports small half-year profit

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This week, South Africa’s Health Minister confirmed that South Africa has entered a second wave of COVID-19 infections. This is nine months after businesses stopped almost all economic activity, to slow the spread of the virus. How will the country manage the second wave without putting further pressure on the economy? Martin Kingston, Steering Committee Chairperson at Business for South Africa joins CNBC Africa for more.

How SA businesses are responding to second COVID-19 wave

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With the urgency for the African continent’s economy to recover better, and with the development of the fourth industrial revolution, it is only fitting for Microsoft to get involved in investment into the continent. Joining CNBC Africa to unpack the developments is Amrote Abdella, Regional Director for the Microsoft 4Afrika Initiative.

Microsoft invest in skills development to help grow Africa

LONDON (Reuters) &#8211; Financial markets’ euphoric reaction to the recent COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs and U.S. election results is pushing some currencies up so fast that rumblings have begun about a potential new FX war.



Almost a decade after Brazil’s finance minister likened Western central bank money-printing to economic warfare, some of the conditions that led countries to weaken their currencies then look to be forming again.



Investors’ growing eagerness to buy into risky assets gave emerging market currencies their best month in nearly two years in November, stretching a run of gains that started in June.



A further extension &#8212; seen as likely after the dollar hit a two-year low on Thursday &#8212; would mark be their longest uninterrupted climb since 2012.



South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand are already worried enough that they have either intervened in their foreign exchange markets or taken other steps to try to prevent fragile economic recoveries being snuffed out.



In Sweden, whose crown is this year’s best-performing currency, the central bank unexpectedly increased its money-printing programme last week.



“I think currency war would be a bit of a dramatic term to use right now, but you could say there have been some early warning shots,” said UBS’s head of emerging market strategy Manik Narain. “And if this currency strength continues, these countries could start to push back harder.”



Competitive currency devaluations are blamed by economists for exacerbating the 1930s Great Depression and dragging for decades on world trade by fostering protectionism.



The cycle usually starts with tit-for-tat interest rate cuts and interventions, but can quickly escalate into capital controls or investment taxes to ward off hot foreign money like that now flooding into emerging markets.



Institute of International Finance data on Tuesday showed investors splurged a record $40 billion on stocks and $37 billion on bonds in emerging markets last month, a spree that was more than the previous three months combined.



The Mexican peso, Brazilian real, Turkish Lira, South African rand, Russian rouble and Polish zloty all jumped between 5% and 10%, adding to 5%-12% leaps in China, Taiwan and Korea’s currencies since June.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-room-to-boom">ROOM TO BOOM</h2>



It is not only the expectation that COVID-19 vaccines will normalise trade, travel and commodity prices driving the trend.



Low global interest rates mean developing countries are among the few places left where investors make positive returns on bonds, while the boom in electric cars and automation has seen money pour into Asia’s big microchip makers.



Global trade is expected to see the first expansion next year in three years, with the hope too that U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s government will be more predictable on that front.



“If you look at the areas in which potential currency wars could break out it would be the areas which have attracted the most capital flows or the most equity flows,” PIMCO’s head of emerging markets portfolio management Pramol Dhawan said.



He cited Taiwan, South Korea and China as the main hotspots, and potentially India going forward. It has already stacked up $85 billion worth of dollar reserves this year, Narain at UBS added, helping keep the rupee on the leash.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">DON’T WORRY, BE HAPPY</h2>



It is usually the pace rather than the extent of FX moves that lead countries to act.



When Brazil’s Guido Mantega declared a currency war had broken out in September 2010, the dollar had lost more than 10% in around three months. And it didn’t stop there, falling 17% by June 2011.



This time around the greenback is down 11% in eight months. But U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley thinks it is still 10% overvalued and Citi forecasts a record 20% drop next year as economies recover and the Federal Reserve continues stimulus.



IIF chief economist Robin Brooks doubts even that kind of move would trigger a full-blown currency war.



Taking away the 8% leap in China’s yuan, EM currencies are still down 5% this year, and some of the hardest hit, like Brazil’s real and Turkey’s lira, are down 25% and worth a fraction of what they were a decade ago.



“Honestly, if I were an EM policymaker, every day where my currency was strengthening I would be happy,” Brooks said, noting that a stronger currency also makes it cheaper to repay the dollar-denominated debt that has been piling up.



Nevertheless, he thinks the euro and the yen will be shoved higher, requiring the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan to respond. China’s reaction will also be watched closely, while Thailand’s statement that it is watching the baht’s rise “24 hours a day” highlights the building tensions.



“Our concern is the speed of the adjustment,” Thailand’s central bank governor, Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput, said last week. “It has been largely nothing to do with us”.

Waldo Swiegers | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Analysis: Is a post-COVID currency war coming?

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The International Air Transport Association has published its revised outlook for the airline industry for 2020. The global net loss estimate has increased by 41 per cent, compared to the forecast in June. With the re-opening of borders and a possibility of a vaccine, performance is expected to see a turn for the better in 2021. Joining CNBC Africa to unpack those estimates is Muhammad Albakri, Regional Vice President for Africa &#038; the Middle East, International Air Transport Association.

A long and difficult journey lies ahead for aviation industry hit hard by COVID-19

Edcon’s sale of Edgars and Jet have changed the dynamics of the consumer goods sector.&nbsp; The resultant consolidation of clothing retailers is long overdue, reckons Evan Walker, a portfolio manager at 36ONE Asset Management.



“It’s a good acquisition for them,” says Walker, referring to the current valuation compared to only a few years ago.&nbsp; “Unfortunately, we need more consolidation,” warns Walker. “And I’m still nervous about the amount of space on the food side.”



Isana Cordier, Head of Consumer Goods and Services at Absa Corporate and Investment Banking, agrees.&nbsp; “It sounds funny, but consumers want less choice – the need to simplify is driving behaviour.&nbsp; More consolidation is likely.”’



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-deglobalisation-of-supply-chains">Deglobalisation of supply chains</h2>



Covid-19 has disrupted global supply chains severely, showing the value of bringing them closer to home.



“We’ve been heading down that route for the last five years,” <a>says Anthony Thunstrӧm, CEO at The Foschini Group (TFG). </a>&nbsp;“We’re looking at 42-day lead-times in South Africa versus 150 in the Far East. The net result? There’s far less ‘fashion risk’ as we make decisions on real-time data and we’re getting better gross margins. With Covid it’s become absolutely important. There’s too many variables out there.”



TFG has upped local manufacturing to between 30% and 40% in the last year, accelerating the process by about three years.



[23:53 to 34:34]



<a href="https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/consumer-goods-sector-is-consolidating-and-supply">https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/consumer-goods-sector-is-consolidating-and-supply</a>

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Consumer goods sector is consolidating – and supply chains are de-globalising

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-using-data-to-understand-the-consumer-of-the-future">Using data to understand the consumer of the future</h2>



Author: Isana Cordier, Sector Head: Consumer Goods and Services



As we start to break through what can possibly be described as “the longest winter”, forever to be known as the COVID-19 year, we are left to realign our lives and find some sort of rhythm back with what was left in the wake of the storm.&nbsp;&nbsp;



2020 has forcefully disrupted many consumers, and as a result traditional consumer-facing businesses in South Africa are left having to re-assess and re-configure the road map of their business models and investment plans to the changed landscape that is facing them economically and structurally. &nbsp;



Now, more than ever before, any data available that could potentially shed some light on the scene are being explored and analysed to provide much needed insights into how the road ahead could potentially unfold.



Absa is a transaction enabler to retailers across the spectrum and our card-acquiring services give us a unique insight into the spending habits of consumers at these retailers. This data, coupled with our innovative Pocket Flow tool, mean that we can not only look at what has happened in the past, but can also start to guide clients around where certain industries are headed.



Before we take a deep-dive into some of the consumer card spending data, let’s look at a couple of practical examples of how consumer behaviour has been influenced by the pandemic, and how retailers potentially have to consider adapting their business models as a result.&nbsp;



In the clothing category for instance, with many South Africans now forced to adopt the “Work from Home” trend, we are spending less time worrying about our professional work-wear. &nbsp;Suits are out and functional clothing is in. &nbsp;&nbsp;Yet how many retailers have the agility in their supply chain to embrace this new trend, particularly if the lockdown and work-from-home trends continue to develop? A retailer like ZARA has <a href="https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-digit/submission/zara-achieving-the-fast-in-fast-fashion-through-analytics/">long been recognised</a> for its ability to use data analytics in fashion to adjust its supply chains – in contrast many of its peers have faced declining sales, simply because they are not able to adjust in real-time to what is happening in the market.



Another consideration is the rise of e-commerce. Retailers who had invested heavily in this element of their business pre-COVID, were natural winners. &nbsp;JSE-listed companies are releasing their financial results and organisations such as <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/mr-price-online-sales-surge-75-post-lockdown/">Mr Price have reported</a> that they saw up to 75% increase in online sales post lockdown – consumers are no longer heading into big retail stores but are increasingly happy to trust online systems.&nbsp;



Pre-COVID lockdowns, technology was already disrupting traditional retailers – the pandemic has simply accelerated many of these trends.



Moving on to what we see when we look at the data from our acquiring services, we notice some interesting insights starting to emerge. We recognise that this view is based on Absa’s share of this particular market, which is sizable to trust as a sample, but we have also tested with our retailers and find clear correlations to what the data is showing us.



In March, just as the lockdown was about to be implemented, there was a 7% increase in consumer spending over March 2019. Much of this can be attributed to panic buying as consumers stocked up on groceries and non-perishable food items in fear of the looming lock down.



Interestingly, consumers also stocked up on funeral insurance, medical aid and life insurance policies. The funeral services category was in fact the only tracked category to rise while under Level 5, whilst consumer spending dropped 38% overall. &nbsp;



With level 4 lockdown starting and continuing for the month of May, we witnessed a lesser overall decline in spending of 11% comparing the same month in the previous year, with decrease in food and clothing category 7% for this period.



In June we entered into Level 3 and spending overall increased by 14% when compared to June 2019. Many retailers reported higher than expected sales. We can assume that most households had excess cash due to the lack of spending on categories such as travel and entertainment, and pent up demand from previous months’ restricted trading conditions. Increased SASSA payments and a possibility of retrenchment packages probably also attributed to an increase in household cash.



With level 3 Lock Down continuing during the month of July, we saw spending for the month increased with 6% comparing to 2019. Grocery and Supermarkets showed a 6% increase, despite restricted trading of alcohol and cigarettes. Clothing stores were more severely impacted with declines in some categories of around 26%, whilst restaurants traded 59% below comparative period.



However, a 147% increase in Fast Food Sales was recorded, reflecting the rise of the “Dark Kitchen” trend. This trend further establishes the consumer’s move to digital channels and the uptake of online food delivery services, estimated to be worth over $110bn globally in 2020.&nbsp;



Earlier we touched on the “Work from Home” trend which evidenced increased sales in the Home and Garden category of 28% for the year up to July 2020.&nbsp; Some of the other developments of interest include:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>An increased focus on healthy lifestyle / living</li><li>The world of education is changing with home-schooling and digital classrooms</li><li>A focus on the simplifying and personalising of individual lifestyles</li><li>Re-envisaged travel, both local and international</li></ul>



For retailers, this consumer behaviour has quite some significant implications to be considered in the relevant categories, but also across categories, recognising the interdependency of trends being established.



Although the year still looks fairly positive with a 1.5% increase in overall spending on a comparative year-on-year spending, consumer financial health is finely balanced and much will depend on how quickly the economy can get back on its feet.&nbsp; Discretionary spending, especially in mid to upper LSMs, is likely to continue to stay depressed with slightly more resilience in the lower LSM clothing category.&nbsp; Food retailers should hold their own, but it is expected that investment will rather go to e-commerce and omni-channel solutions than store expansions.&nbsp;



Real-time data analytics is going to be key for the retailer of the future. COVID-19 has forced retailers to adopt digital channels far more aggressively and organisations that fail to adapt will find themselves facing a challenging future. As a bank, Absa is committed to embracing technology and empowering our clients to make smarter business decisions and we look forward to sharing future consumer sector insights with you.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>ENDS</li></ul>



<a href="https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/absa-insights-consumer-goods-services-full-webinar">https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/absa-insights-consumer-goods-services-full-webinar</a>

Absa Reboots Image As 100 Years Of Barclays In Africa Ends

Using data to understand the consumer of the future

Food retailers have done exceptionally well, benefitting from an increase in “at home” consumption.



“There’s been a change in consumption patterns,” says Evan Walker, a portfolio manager at 36ONE Asset Management.&nbsp; “But that is beginning to normalise.”



Similarly, in the clothing category, the “work from home” trend is also impacting on retailers.&nbsp; Suits are out; tracksuits and pajamas are in. “You don’t even know if I’m wearing trousers,” quips The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield from behind his webcam.



Nimble retailers with the ability to use data to quickly adjust supply chains haven’t faced the declining sales of less agile peers. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-wellness-and-local-is-lekker-are-having-a-moment-and-consumers-demand-value">“Wellness” and “local is lekker” are having a moment – and consumers demand value</h2>



Covid-19 has massively accelerated consumers’ shift towards anything related to “wellness”, says Anthony Thunstrӧm, CEO at The Foschini Group (TFG).&nbsp; He expects the dramatic shift to casual wear and wellness to continue for another 12 to 24 months.



Thunstrӧm says consumers across income groups are demanding better value.



SAB already sources more than 95% of the ingredients it uses locally.&nbsp; It also increasingly procures merchandise and point-of-sale materials in South Africa.



Only about 5% of consumers in South Africa has ever bought alcohol online, says SAB Marketing Director Vaughn Croeser.&nbsp; “Where we see acceleration is on the business-to-business side – helping our retailers optimise revenues through algorithmic selling and using artificial intelligence to determine the right order quantities.”



TFG sees a significant expansion of local manufacturing of its lines over the next five years.&nbsp; The rapid shift to online buying during the pandemic will continue, it expects, even as consumers trickle back into the malls.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-investment-risks">Investment risks</h2>



A great risk to investments into the consumer goods sector remains South Africa’s deteriorating fiscal situation, says Walker.



“If the public sector wage bill doesn’t come down dramatically in the next three years, we’ll be looking at currency north of 13 to the dollar and a bond rate of 20%. It must be curtailed, or we won’t have a domestic economy. It’s as simple as that.”



Landlords have a tough five year ahead of them, reckons Walker. “Retailer are going to be brutal – and they should be!”



“I’m on the side and waiting,” says Walker.



“We’ve had a huge shock to the system with Covid,” says Isana Cordier, Head of Consumer Goods and Services at Absa Corporate and Investment Banking. “Hopefully, people wake up. We need to bring manufacturing back to South Africa. The economy will recover, but next year is going to be particularly tough.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-consumer-health">Consumer health</h2>



Before Covid-19, about 90% of TFG customers paid in-store, providing an opportunity to “on sell”. When the pandemic hit, the retailer worked with food retailers to service these clients, and also with Absa to enable digital payments.



TFG is not relying on credit to boost its sales.&nbsp; In fact, it has reduced its credit offerings to customers.&nbsp; “Cash growth in our stores have increased,” says Ntuli.&nbsp; Today, TFG encourages and rewards cash payments, lay-bys and timeous payments of accounts.



“The consumer is definitely under pressure, and I don’t think that’s going to change for a while.”



[46:35 to end]



Link to podcast



<a href="https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/consumer-goods-sector-how-the-next-5-years-may-pla">https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/consumer-goods-sector-how-the-next-5-years-may-pla</a>

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Consumer goods sector: How the next 5 years may play out

Absa’s working capital management solutions help businesses successfully manage their cashflows and working capital so they can navigate Covid-19’s financial challenges



A business cannot succeed without cash to meet current expenses. Paying bills when they are due is only possible when working capital is well managed.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Working capital is the life blood of the organisation</h2>



“Working capital is what you use on a daily basis to convert your assets into cash,” says Ovizikhungo Sicwetsha, pan-Africa head of short-term products at Absa Corporate and Investment Banking.



“It is the life blood of the organisation, the oil that keeps the business running,” says Bohani Hlungwane, group head of sales, Trade and Working Capital, Absa Transactional Banking.



“The trick is to manage the cash conversion cycle so that you convert assets to cash as quickly as possible and keep cash in the business for as long as possible,” Sicwetsha says.



One of the ways to achieve this is to lengthen the time to pay suppliers. Although this may give the business cash for longer, delaying payment can ruin relationships and reputations.



<a>Working capital finance products </a><a href="#_msocom_1">[PH1]</a>&nbsp;that reduce the number of days it takes to turn accounts receivables into cash and extend the number of days to pay are a better option. They also reduce risk because there is more certainty around cashflows, something businesses have struggled with in 2020.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Managing working capital in a crisis</h2>



“We are seeing businesses struggling to perfect the operating cycle and be efficient throughout their cash conversion cycle,” Sicwetsha says.&nbsp;



“This is because everyone is looking for efficiencies – debtors are looking to delay payments, creditors want to collect earlier and manage their stock levels as efficiently as possible.”



Sicwetsha says cash conversion cycles differ from sector to sector depending on the state of the economy. “Proper understanding and planning are key to surviving events such as recessions and other economic catastrophes like Covid-19. Building cash reserves, renegotiating supplier contracts and managing inventory much more tightly are just some of the techniques businesses have used to weather this storm.”



Sicwetsha has more advice to help clients manage their working capital efficiently in these difficult times:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Pay creditors when they are due &#8211; don’t pay late</li></ul>



Only take advantage of early settlement offers if there is an obvious benefit to you.&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Collect trade receivables as early as possible by offering incentives such as early settlement discounts</li></ul>



Use cash in your own account to earn a better yield in money market accounts.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Improve inventory turn and optimise inventory management&nbsp;</li></ul>



Many solutions use data and technology to manage demand and supply, for example businesses order just what is needed to fulfil a specific order (just in time), or alternatively carry inventory on consignment.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Communicate and use data</li></ul>



Keep in touch with customers, debtors, creditors and your bank so you know where your business stands in relation to these stakeholders. Use data to identify trends, which debtors respond to early settlements for example, and use these in your working capital management.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Sicwetsha says Absa has solutions linked to each of these working capital elements that will help businesses to improve their cash conversion cycles by getting cash earlier while waiting for the invoice to be settled.&nbsp;



Working capital management solutions from Absa



“We analyse our clients’ <a>working capital </a><a href="#_msocom_2">[PH2]</a>&nbsp;to see where we can assist with solutions such as short-term overdrafts, money market overnight loans, trade loans and other short-term financing solutions linked to the entity’s business and their cycles.&nbsp; In some instances, our solutions are looking at the buyer – as means of assisting the sellers get their cash quicker.&nbsp; We also consider funding based on the inventory the client is keeping,” Hlungwane says.



Some of Absa’s solutions are bespoke to the client’s trade cycles and needs, others are designed to manage cashflows and mitigate risks associated with <a>cross border transactions. </a><a href="#_msocom_3">[PH3]</a>&nbsp;The group has a number of <a>award-winning solutions </a><a href="#_msocom_4">[PH4]</a>&nbsp;for businesses operating across borders and in multiple currencies including customer foreign currency (CFC) overdrafts, cross border trade loans and discounting/refinance of letters of credit.



Absa’s working capital solutions and products can be accessed digitally, and the group is using technology and data to help businesses identify working capital management trends.



“Clients using Absa’s digital platforms can see of who is using lots of cash in their business, who is generating more cash inflows, and when these cash flow movements are happening,” Sicwetsha says. “They can use this information in their forecasting activities and manage their working capital more efficiently.”



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



&nbsp;<a href="#_msoanchor_1">[PH1]</a>https://cib.absa.africa/corporate-banking/liquidity-management/



&nbsp;<a href="#_msoanchor_2">[PH2]</a>https://www.absa.co.za/corporate-and-investment-banking/products-and-services/working-capital/



&nbsp;<a href="#_msoanchor_3">[PH3]</a>https://cib.absa.africa/corporate-banking/working-capital-trade-finance/



&nbsp;<a href="#_msoanchor_4">[PH4]</a>https://www.businesslive.co.za/companies/financial-services/2020-09-10-native-absa-cib-proves-its-digital-credentials-on-a-global-stage/

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Take advantage of Absa’s bespoke working capital management solutions to optimise cash flow and reduce interest charges

It took a pandemic, but consumers in South Africa have adopted online shopping – a change that is likely to be permanent.



“At the beginning of our last financial year, ecommerce was 1% of our turnover,” says Anthony Thunstrӧm, CEO at The Foschini Group (TFG). “By the end of the year it was 2% &#8211; a 100% growth rate. We’re currently running at between 5% and 6%. It moved us forward about three years.”



“I don’t see online sales going back,” says Bongiwe Ntuli, Chief Financial Officer at TFG.&nbsp; “I see it escalating further.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stores are ending up as showrooms</h2>



Despite the shift online, and the likely permanence of the trend, TFG still intends to expand the number of physical stores from which it operates.



TFG has thousands of collection points for online shoppers across South Africa. “We’ve got more branches than the Post Office!” says Thunstrӧm, only partly in jest.&nbsp; “The store is still the easiest place to return a product.”



TFG has more than 500 of its South African stores connected to a central database – it doesn’t have to ship from a distribution centre.



Cash remains, for now



“We’ve seen a reduction in the use of cash,” says Isana Cordier, Head of Consumer Goods and Services at Absa Corporate and Investment Banking. “But it was predominantly due to trading conditions. I don’t think cash is going away.”



Nevertheless, says Cordier, banks are trying to introduce different payment mechanisms to displace cash to some extent.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Challenges remain, but some are getting it right</h2>



Amongst food retailers, Checkers has stolen the show.



“Sixty60 has been a successful project. They got their logistics right,” says Evan Walker, a portfolio manager at 36ONE Asset Management. “The feedback from consumers is positive. They’ve jumped ahead of their competitors.”



For retailer such as Foschini, complications will probably be store-related (i.e. ensuring hassle-free returns, dispatching the correct items, etc.).



“Getting people back into the stores [to buy clothes] is going to be a challenge,” says Walker. “They’re going to have to be innovative. They’re going to have to offer incentives, offer an experience and improved service, so their stores don’t become redundant to the consumer.”



Internationally, about 70% of online clothing sales take place on a smartphone app, and personalisation has become fundamentally important. “We’ve launched a couple over the last few months,” says Thunstrӧm. “You can take a photograph of how you’re dressed. The app catalogues that photo against every product across all our brands. It then comes up with five or six suggestions based on your photo and past purchase history.”







<a href="https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/covid-19-is-shoving-retail-and-consumers-into-the">https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/covid-19-is-shoving-retail-and-consumers-into-the</a> [34:34 to 46:35]

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Covid-19 is shoving retail – and consumers – into the future

Consumer goods, as a sector, came under extreme pressure during the Covid-19 lockdown. In an economy that has shed 2.2 million jobs in the second quarter of 2020, it remains under incredible duress, perhaps more so than at any time in the past century.



“It’s interesting times indeed,” says Isana Cordier, Head of Consumer Goods and Services at Absa Corporate and Investment Banking.&nbsp; “Looking at the data, people are still spending, they’re just spending differently.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer spending is holding up, but changing</h2>



Predictably, grocery “basket sizes” have grown while shop visits have fallen.



Major super regional shopping malls&nbsp;across South Africa, particularly those exposed to tourism such as the V&amp;A Waterfront and Canal Walk in Cape Town, are still well down on normal levels.&nbsp; Some smaller, less urban malls are up on pre-Covid levels, says Anthony Thunstrӧm, CEO at The Foschini Group (TFG).&nbsp; “You almost think there’s no coronavirus!”



“Our bottom line is under pressure. Our margins are under pressure. But South Africa has a resilient economy and we’ve seen an uptick in the past few months,” says Bongiwe Ntuli, Chief Financial Officer at TFG.



“Our product is built on the premise of sociability, so it was incredibly challenging,” says SAB Marketing Director Vaughn Croeser



Since the resumption of trading, SAB has seen good sales volumes, but also shifts in consumer behaviour, particularly towards the value sector, which remains robust, and in-home consumption. This trend is unlikely to continue beyond the short-term, says Croeser.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Dawn of digital adoption</h2>



Ecommerce made up about 1% of TFG’s turnover at the start of its last financial year.&nbsp; It’s currently at between 5% and 6%. “It moved us forward about three years,” says Thunstrom.



&nbsp;“I don’t see online sales going back,” says Ntuli.&nbsp; “I see it escalating further.”



Listen to the full podcast <a href="https://omny.fm/shows/life-podcasts/south-africans-are-still-spending-though-different">here</a>.

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South Africans are still spending, though differently – and increasingly online

WASHINGTON (Reuters) &#8211; U.S. President Donald Trump, under coronavirus quarantine in the White House and restricted from traveling, is seeking ways to put a spark back in his struggling re-election bid and get behind his desk in the Oval Office with four weeks left until Election Day.



Trump has been looking for options on how to get his message out and cut into Democrat Joe Biden’s lead in battleground states where the Nov. 3 election will be decided, advisers said.



They said they had been discussing Trump delivering a national address, while a speech to senior voters is being contemplated for Thursday. Vice President Mike Pence’s debate with Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris in Salt Lake City will take center stage of the campaign on Wednesday evening.



Complications abound. Trump aides say he is impatient to get back on the campaign trail and insistent on debating Biden on Oct. 15 in Miami, but Biden said on Tuesday he will not participate if Trump is not virus-free.



The White House’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, said on Wednesday that Trump was eager to get back to work in the Oval Office. He has been working from a makeshift space in his residence in the White House since returning on Monday from three days in hospital.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/gettyimages-642093036-594x594-2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-352574" width="663" height="491" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/gettyimages-642093036-594x594-2-300x221.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/gettyimages-642093036-594x594-2-80x60.jpg 80w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/gettyimages-642093036-594x594-2-485x360.jpg 485w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 663px) 100vw, 663px" /><figcaption>WASHINGTON, DC &#8211; FEBRUARY 16: U.S. President Donald Trump stands during a news conference announcing Alexander Acosta as the new Labor Secretary nominee in the East Room at the White House on February 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. The announcement comes a day after Andrew Puzder withdrew his nomination. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



“He wanted to go to the Oval yesterday. If he decides to go the Oval we’ve got safety protocols there,” Meadows told reporters, adding there would be adequate personal protective equipment and ventilation.







He described Trump, who has received treatment with a steroid that is normally used in the most severe cases, as being “in very good health.”



Any political boost Trump could get from a fresh injection of stimulus money into Americans’ pockets appears to be out of reach after he abruptly ended negotiations with Democrats on Tuesday, with both sides far apart on how much money to devote to a deal.



Both Biden and the top Democrat in the U.S. Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, accused Trump of abandoning needy Americans. Republican Senator Susan Collins, facing a tough re-election bid in her home state of Maine, called Trump’s move a “huge mistake.”



“The president turned his back on you,” Biden said in a Twitter post.



With layoffs in key industries mounting by the day and threatening the fragile recovery, Trump late on Tuesday urged Congress to quickly pass $25 billion in funding for passenger airlines, $135 billion for small businesses and provide $1,200 stimulus checks for Americans.



RELATED COVERAGE<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-trump-physician-int/trump-is-symptom-free-and-stable-white-house-doctor-says-idUSKBN26S2YR"></a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-trump-physician-int/trump-is-symptom-free-and-stable-white-house-doctor-says-idUSKBN26S2YR">Trump is symptom-free and stable, White House doctor says</a>



But White House officials on Wednesday downplayed the likelihood of any kind of stimulus being passed before the election.



Trump’s drive to get Judge Amy Coney Barrett confirmed to the vacant seat on the Supreme Court by the Republican-controlled Senate before the election also may be in doubt, since three Republican senators have been infected with the coronavirus and may not be able to vote.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-costly-absence">COSTLY ABSENCE</h2>



A wave of infections at the White House among Trump’s top lieutenants and press office aides has left the West Wing struggling to find its footing. The latest infection came on Tuesday when immigration hawk and chief speechwriter Stephen Miller put out word he had tested positive.



ABC News said its count of cases related to the White House was now 23, including Trump and his wife, Melania.







Trump has attempted to use his coronavirus infection to his political advantage, making a dramatic prime-time exit from Walter Reed military hospital on Monday and whipping off his face mask before the cameras on his return to the White House.



He depicted himself as a man who vanquished the disease and emerged stronger, telling Americans: “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life.”



But Trump’s handling of the pandemic, which has killed more than 210,000 people in the United States, has been met with skepticism from many Americans.



The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted Oct. 2-6, found that 38% of adults approved of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus &#8211; his lowest level of approval in the weekly survey since a similar one conducted Sept. 3-8 – while 56% said they disapprove.



The poll found that 79% of U.S. adults, including 94% of registered Democrats and 70% of registered Republicans, said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned personally about the spread of the virus.







Advisers say Trump wanted to be talking about other issues instead of the virus by this stage of the campaign, to put pressure on Biden. Opinion polls show Trump down double digits, and Biden with sizeable leads in many swing states.



Trump had been expected to go on tour this week through Western states to raise millions of dollars for a campaign facing a deficit to Biden’s well-funded effort.



One adviser noted that almost exactly four years ago in 2016, Trump’s campaign was knocked off the rails by release of an “Access Hollywood” tape in which he boasted about groping women. He went on to beat the odds and win the election.



“He’s the real comeback kid and if anybody can come back from something it’s him,” the adviser said.

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Coronavirus patient Trump seeks ways to mount campaign comeback

<figure class="wp-block-image alignwide size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1110" height="740" src="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-1110x740.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-375420" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-1110x740.jpg 1110w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-696x464.jpg 696w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-1068x712.jpg 1068w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879-600x400.jpg 600w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Airbus_A330-200_South_African_AW_SAA_F-WWYL_-_MSN_1223_-_Will_be_ZS-SXX_5838450879.jpg 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1110px) 100vw, 1110px" /><figcaption>SAA Airbus A320</figcaption></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Key Points</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>traffic&nbsp;sink 90.1% in August,&nbsp;</li><li>(albeit a slight improvement over the 94.6% decline in July).&nbsp;</li><li>capacity contract by 78.4%,&nbsp;</li><li>average load factor fall 41.0 percentage points to 34.6%, which was the lowest among regions.</li></ul>



<a>29 September 2020 (Geneva)</a>&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its traffic forecast for 2020 to reflect a weaker-than-expected recovery, as evidenced by a dismal end to the summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere. IATA now expects full-year 2020 traffic to be down 66% compared to 2019. The previous estimate was for a 63% decline.&nbsp;&nbsp;



August passenger demand continued to be hugely depressed against normal levels, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) down 75.3% compared to August 2019. This was only slightly improved compared to the 79.5% annual contraction in July. Domestic markets continued to outperform international markets in terms of recovery, although most remained substantially down on a year ago. August capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) was down 63.8% compared to a year ago, and load factor plunged 27.2 points to an all-time low for August of 58.5%.



Read More: <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/travel/2020/09/30/emirates-to-resume-flights-to-johannesburg-cape-town-durban-harare-and-mauritius-in-october/">Emirates to resume flights to Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Harare, and Mauritius in October</a>



Based on flight data, the recovery in air passenger services was brought to a halt in mid-August by a return of government restrictions in the face of new COVID-19 outbreaks in a number of key markets. Forward bookings for air travel in the fourth quarter show that the recovery since the April low point will continue to falter. Whereas the decline in year-on-year growth of global RPKs was expected to have moderated to -55% by December, a much slower improvement is now expected with the month of December forecast to be down 68% on a year ago.&nbsp;



“August’s disastrous traffic performance puts a cap on the industry’s worst-ever summer season. International demand recovery is virtually non-existent and domestic markets in Australia and Japan actually regressed in the face of new outbreaks and travel restrictions. A few months ago, we thought that a full-year fall in demand of -63% compared to 2019 was as bad as it could get. With the dismal peak summer travel period behind us, we have revised our expectations downward to -66%,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">International Passenger Markets</h2>



August international passenger demand plummeted 88.3% compared to August 2019, mildly improved over the 91.8% decline recorded in July. Capacity sagged 79.5%, and load factor fell 37.0 percentage points to 48.7%.



Asia-Pacific airlines’&nbsp;August traffic sank 95.9% compared to the year-ago period, barely budged from a 96.2% drop in July, and the steepest contraction among regions. Capacity dived 90.4% and load factor shrank 48.0 percentage points to 34.8%.



European carriers’&nbsp;August demand plunged 79.9% compared to last year, improved from an 87.0% drop in July, as travel restrictions were lifted in the Schengen Area. However, more recent flight data suggests this trend has reversed amid a return to lockdown and quarantine in some markets. Capacity fell 68.7% and load factor dropped by 32.1 percentage points to 57.1%, which was the highest among regions.



<a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/09/15/air-france-klm-on-the-reopening-of-sas-travel-industry-under-level-1-lock-down/">Air France-KLM on the reopening of SA’s travel industry under level 1 lock-down</a>



Middle Eastern airlines&nbsp;had a 92.3% fall in demand for August, compared with a 93.3% decline in July. Capacity collapsed 81.9%, and load factor sank 47.1 percentage points to 35.3%.



North American carriers’&nbsp;traffic tumbled 92.4%&nbsp;in August, little changed compared to 94.4% decline in July. Capacity fell 82.6%, and load factor plunged 49.9 percentage points to 38.5%.



Latin American airlines&nbsp;had a 93.4% demand drop in August compared to the same month last year, versus a 94.9% drop in July. Capacity crumbled 90.1% and load factor dropped 27.8 percentage points to 56.1%, second highest among the regions.&nbsp;



African airlines’&nbsp;traffic&nbsp;sank 90.1% in August, slightly improved over a 94.6% decline in July. Capacity contracted 78.4%, and load factor fell 41.0 percentage points to 34.6%, which was the lowest among regions.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Domestic Passenger Markets</h2>



Domestic traffic fell 50.9% in August. This was a mild improvement compared to a 56.9%&nbsp;decline in July. Domestic capacity fell 34.5% and load factor dropped 21.5 percentage points to 64.2%.&nbsp;



US carriers’&nbsp;August&nbsp;traffic was down 69.3% compared to August 2019, only a slight improvement compared to July, when traffic fell 71.5%. An increase in outbreaks and quarantines in key domestic markets contributed to the disappointing result.



Russian airlines&nbsp;saw their domestic traffic rise 3.8% compared to August 2019, the first market to see an annual increase since the onset of the pandemic. Falling fares along with a boom in domestic tourism were among the main contributors to the positive swing.&nbsp;



The Bottom Line:&nbsp;



“Traditionally, cash generated during the busy summer season in the Northern Hemisphere provides airlines with a cushion during the lean autumn and winter seasons. This year, airlines have no such protection. Absent additional government relief measures and reopening of borders, hundreds of thousands of airline jobs will disappear. But it is not just airlines and airline jobs at risk. Globally tens of millions of jobs depend on aviation. If borders don’t reopen the livelihoods of these people will be at grave risk. We need an internationally agreed regime of pre-departure COVID-19 testing to give governments the confidence to reopen borders, and passengers the confidence to travel by air again,” said de Juniac.

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