At last count, unemployment in Kenya was running at around 11 percent of the workforce; for the young, those aged 15-24, it was twice that.
Kenya&#8217;s years of strong economic growth &#8212; a key factor in President Uhuru Kenyatta&#8217;s reelection campaign &#8212; has created jobs. But they are mostly low-paying, informal and coming at a rate economists say is too low to absorb the rapidly growing population.
That has not gone unnoticed by the voters and has left Kenyatta, seeking a second and final five-year term in office on Aug 8, trying to make the most of recent improvements.
It is also why his Jubilee party is pledging to create year-long paid internships to all graduates in the future.
Around 800,000 jobs were created last year, while the economy expanded by 5.8 percent, well outperforming the global and regional averages.
But 90 percent of the new jobs are in the poorly-paid informal sector, according to Jibran Qureishi, East Africa economist at Stanbic Bank.
&#8220;That is the challenge that policymakers need to address,&#8221; he said.
The number of new formal jobs is small. Terry Ryan, who has served on the central bank&#8217;s monetary policy committee, said just 15,000 of them were created in the economy annually.
By contrast, more than 560,000 students enrolled in university last year.
&#8220;We are not creating formal sector jobs at anything like the rate of the supply of formal sector potential employees,&#8221; Ryan told Reuters.
That means no jobs for people like 25-year-old Cecilia Awuor, who earned a degree in business information technology last year. She is working as a maid at $50 a month.
She is skeptical of politicians and doesn&#8217;t plan to vote next week even though she is a registered voter. &#8220;I can&#8217;t waste my time queueing to vote for a politician who just wants to enrich himself,&#8221; Awuor said.
Most Kenyans share her concerns, according to a national survey released by global polling company Ipsos last month.
Sixty-one percent of respondents said the country was going in the wrong direction; unemployment and inflation were some of their key worries.
Demand for work, meanwhile is rising.
Kenya&#8217;s 44 million-strong population is growing by 2.5 percent per year, and 9 million more jobseekers will join the market by 2025, the World Bank said in a report last year.
<h3 data-reactid="61">Politicians&#8217; Promises</h3>
The government has built new roads and a railway and invested in energy generation to attract new manufacturers.
The efforts have yielded modest results. Kenya&#8217;s standing in the World Bank&#8217;s annual Ease of Doing Business rankings climbed 45 places since Kenyatta took over, up to position 92 last year.
Investors like Sri Lanka&#8217;s textiles firm Hela Intimates have responded. Hela opened an $8 million factory last year, employing 4,000 workers who produce underwear for brands like Calvin Klein, Nautica and Tommy Hilfiger.
CEO Wasantha Perera said Hela were attracted by a large, easily trained work force, infrastructure and government incentives.
&#8220;Setting up a factory, besides registration, was pretty straightforward,&#8221; he told Reuters in his office, overlooking a brightly lit factory floor where thousands of workers sewed garments on production lines while music blared in the background.
But there are not enough investors like Hela. The head of the state-run export processing zone, set up to entice foreign firms, said the 111 firms based there have expanded slowly, now employing 53,000 workers, up from 39,000 in 2012.
The next president, meanwhile, may inherit a slowing economy. Growth was at 4.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017, down from 5.9 percent the same time last year, mainly due to drought and sluggish private sector credit growth.
&#8220;Even the years of good headline growth have not made much of a difference to Kenyan job creation. In a cyclical downturn, we are unlikely to see improved performance,&#8221; said Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered in London.
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Editing by Katharine Houreld/Jeremy Gaunt
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Kenya’s growth not helping employment

Tahiru Azaaviele Liedong | University of Bath
It’s been nearly two decades since the idea of a single currency for West Africa was first mooted. Yet the sub-region is still far from having a common legal tender. What is ordinarily a good idea seems to have fizzled into a fantasy.
Now, the story is that the single currency has been scheduled for 2020. But there is scepticism about the prospects of this coming to pass, especially at a time when economic blocks like the European Union are struggling.
The decision to create a single monetary zone for West Africa was reached by Heads of State of the 15 member countries at a summit of the Economic Community of West African States, the region’s economic commission, in Lome, Togo in 1999.
At the time, a currency union of Francophone West African Statesalready existed to facilitate economic integration among countries which use the CFA Franc (courtesy of the Communauté Financière Africaine, or the African Financial Community) as their currency.
To speed up the macroeconomic convergence necessary for a single currency across the entire sub-region, six Anglophone Heads of State met in Accra Ghana in 2000 and agreed to create a second monetary zone for the Anglophone countries, with the ultimate aim of merging with the Francophone countries. The aim was to create a single and harmonised monetary union for all of West Africa by 2004.
The implementation of that common currency for West Africa’s Anglophone countries was postponed four times before finally being jettisoned, dimming the hopes of a single currency for the sub-region.
The convergence criteria the Economic Community of West African States set for its member countries seem to be the bane of the single currency project. While the criteria are essential, they are also very high bars to scale for the countries concerned.
<h2>The hurdles to overcome</h2>
To implement the single currency, the regional economic body set some conditions.
First, it requires all countries to achieve a single digit inflation of 5% or less, which is a difficult task. In Ghana, data shows that the average yearly inflation between 2000 and 2016 was 16.92%, which is far from a single digit. Nigeria, the largest economy in the region, recorded an average inflation of 11.92% between 2003 and 2016, a rate which far exceeds 5%.
Moreover, West African countries are net importers, even of food. Nigeria, for instance, spends USD$6.5 billion annually on food imports. This sad situation compounds the inflation problem, which is made even worse by the region’s unfavourable exchange rates.
Second, the regional economic body requires all member countries to achieve budget deficit to GDP ratios of 4% or lower before the single currency is launched. In other words, budget shortfalls should be 4% or less of the total market value of all goods and services produced in the respective member countries. It will take a miracle for this to happen by 2020, three years from now.
How can Ghana, whose total debt to GDP stood at 73.3% in 2016, be expected to attain this ratio? How about Gambia whose public debt stood at 108% of GDP in 2015? Even Nigeria, which has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratio in West Africa, is far from the milestone. Essentially, budget deficits have soared and governments will continue to borrow to finance public expenditure.
If the convergence criteria are not revised to reflect the real macroeconomic situation in the sub-region, the single currency dream will remain work-in-progress for the unforeseeable future. This is because economic growth in the sub-region is slow, poverty is rife and the fundamentals for integration are far from realisation.
<h2>Is a single currency even necessary?</h2>
A single currency could help address West Africa’s monetary problems, such as the lack of independence of central banks and non-convertibility of some currencies. Ultimately, a single currency and its associated regional institutions could also boost investor confidence and promote trade within the sub-region.
But sadly, Africa does not trade with itself. Overseas trade represents 80% of total trade on the continent. Trade between African countries accounts for a woeful 10%, compared to 40% and 60% between North American and European countries respectively.
The story is not different for West Africa where trade between countries is extremely low. The sub-region’s largest partner, the EU, accounts for 37.8% of total trade. Meanwhile Nigeria, which has the largest economy in the sub-region, exported only 2.3% and imported less than 0.5% from other West African countries in 2010. Has the trend since changed? No.
In the current circumstances, the necessity of a single currency is untenable if trade is the main motivation, except the regional commission is hoping West Africa will trade more with itself or attract more investors after the launch.
But that will not happen overnight. Even the Francophone countries which have used CFA Franc as their common currency since 1945 record less than 16% of intra-union trade.
<h2>Loss of monetary sovereignty</h2>
Launching a single currency will also require creating and empowering new regional institutions, such as the West African Central Bank, to manage or supervise monetary policy for the member countries.
The regional commission has made it clear that it’s committed to do what’s necessary to achieve its goal, but what remains to be tested is whether this commitment is real or rhetorical.
The search for wealth drives African politics. Hence it will be interesting to see how politicians react when they lose sovereignty over the management of one of the major things that draws them into politics – money.
Nigeria is expected to play a catalyst role in the single currency project, but it’s also one of the most corrupt countries in Africa. In fact, nine of the 15 member countries of the sub-region ranked between 101st and 168th in the 2016 corruption index, out of a total of 176 countries.
To some extent, a single currency and a regional central bank will reduce corruption in the individual countries. The big question is, will the politicians’ greed allow this to happen? Even if the single currency is successfully implemented in 2020, spectators should not be surprised by any chaos or renunciation of earlier political pledges when the reality starts to kick in.

Op-Ed: Why the quest for a single currency for West Africa won’t materialise soon

The amount of data generated every year grows exponentially. <a href="https://www.ibm.com/blogs/internet-of-things/ai-future-iot/">In 2015, there were less than 10 zettabytes (or 10 trillion gigabytes) of data created globally.  Estimates suggest that, by 2025, 180 zettabytes will be created annually</a>. Big data has become an early 21st-century gold rush, and those who best know how to mine data—<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ronhirson/2015/03/23/uber-the-big-data-company/#23885c8118c7">Uber</a>, Airbnb and Google, for example&#8211;are the new titans of industry. For tech companies in established markets, data not only drives operations, but becomes an additional revenue stream through transactions with advertisers and other third parties.  But in African markets, long considered data deserts, data-driven strategies are not an add-on luxury to existing businesses – they are at the core of today’s successful start-ups.  The current generation of African entrepreneurs are data scientists by default, and venture capitalists looking to find African unicorns need to invest in firms with data models in their DNA.
Data is critical for good decisions, and allows for the efficient allocation of resources. Never has the phrase, “You can’t manage what you can’t measure,” been truer.  In today’s global, ultra-connected, ultra-competitive business landscape, the most successful companies not only collect large volumes of good data; they also devote resources to developing the human and technical capital required to analyze it well. Data-driven businesses have an enhanced capability to react more quickly to market changes, to find ideas for new business lines, to efficiently acquire customers, and to hone their competitive advantage.  As analytics improve, productivity and profitability gaps between companies that use data effectively and those that don’t will expand.
African markets – from Nigeria to Tanzania, Mali to Kenya – are simultaneously rich and poor in data.  Their economies remain <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2017/05/03/sreo0517">highly informal</a>, and, although billions of data points are created on the continent every day as billions of cash transactions are made, only a miniscule amount is recorded in any way.  Without records that can be sorted and mined in meaningful ways that would allow for lending and borrowing, African markets such as <a href="https://youtu.be/tQap6HkoJ08?t=198"> Lusaka City Market</a> and Abidjan’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew4zeZ2Y1sw">Adjame neighborhood</a> remain teeming pools of information that immediately disappears after transactions are made.  In informal cash-based systems, data from vendor sales is rarely translated into an accessible and manipulatable format, rendering it effectively useless.  Even in formalised and regulated African sectors, like banking and telecoms, where some aggregated data does exist on customers, it is owned by the individual companies and usually inaccessible to businesses seeking growth.
A new generation of entrepreneurs across Africa, however, are forging a path through the data desert and aiming to make it green by collecting, analysing, and monetizing data.  Nigeria, a key market for the Africa Internet Group, the continent’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d4bf5786-ce4b-11e5-92a1-c5e23ef99c77?mhq5j=e2">first data-driven tech unicorn</a>, is a hotbed of entrepreneurial activity.  <a href="https://www.cars45.com/">Cars45</a> uses technology to gather and pool data every time a client brings a used car to one of its inspection and sales centers in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt. The company is on its way to having enough data points to create an African version of the <a href="https://www.kbb.com/">Kelley Blue Book</a>. Cars45 can not only leverage data to optimise used car transactions in its own marketplace, the company can also sell its data to other parties interested in the used car market. <a href="https://deliveryscience.co/">DeliveryScience</a>, a Lagos-based logistics firm, is using its own data on distribution routes, restocking habits of distributors, and payment terms to help major consumer goods companies become more efficient.  Clients such as Dangote Group and Nestle use the real-time transparency, tracking and invoicing information to limit pilfering, improve distributor financing structure, and manage production schedules.
In East Africa, where Kenya’s burgeoning tech community has earned the nickname of “Silicon Savannah,” <a href="http://msurvey.co.ke/">mSurvey</a> is unlocking consumer data by leveraging mobile subscriber networks. Over 10 million consumers engage with mSurvey through structured conversations collecting information on demographics, consumer preference, and geolocation.  The company also integrates with mobile wallets and payment platforms tracking purchasing habits. <a href="http://kytabu.com/">Kytabu</a>, a Nairobi-based education technology company, provides access to digital textbooks by leasing content paid for by mobile money. In addition to providing basic statistics to publishers, it is using data it collects to understand how its customers like to <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we-have-lot-learn-from-edtech-kenya-l%C3%A9a-douhard">read, learn, and search for content, allowing it to adapt publishers’ materials for each individual user’s learning style</a>, reinventing the way education-publishing works.
As the amount of minable data grows around the world, there is no doubt that Africa will continue to contribute an ever-bigger share and be a source of reverse innovation. Governments, international organisations, and companies all need to continue to support the building of data infrastructure and push for data-friendly policies that can help formalise markets and make it easier to create, collect, aggregate, and, most importantly, share relevant data all over the continent. But, in the meantime, the most talented entrepreneurs are creating products and platforms that embed data solutions in their business models.  Venture capitalists not only need to understand this reality, but seek out the best African data scientists who will build the billion-dollar success stories on the continent.
*Aubrey Hruby is co­founder of the Africa Expert Network and co­author of “The Next Africa” (Macmillan, 2015). Lexi Novitske is the Principal Investment Officer at Singularity Investments.  
http://cnbc.africa/news/2017/07/28/google-hopes-train-10-million-people-africa-online-skills-ceo/

Africa’s big opportunity lies in data

Sarah Colenbrander | University of Leeds
Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing fast. Nigeria alone is projected to add 212 million urban dwellers by 2050, equivalent to the current population of Germany, France and the UK.
But focusing on population growth leads many to overlook the other unusual features of African cities. Urban economies across the region are markedly different from those of other cities around the world: they are more expensive to live in, more informal and less industrial.
In a recently published paper, we explore how these distinctive traits are increasing vulnerability.
Environmental risks range from everyday hazards such as waterborne diseases (cholera, diarrhoea, dysentery) to larger, less frequent disasters (tropical storms, flooding, fires). Their impact is much greater where people and governments can’t afford to invest in basic infrastructure.
In our research we demonstrate that African cities are too often developing in ways that perpetuate poverty and marginalisation. The amount of money that people have to spend on basic necessities, the precarious nature of their employment and their exclusion from the formal economy mean that they have limited resources to cope with environmental risk.
There are ways around these problems, but they need governments to work much more collaboratively with people living in informal settlements and working in the informal economy.
African cities are expensive
For many, African cities are inextricably linked with poverty. It therefore seems counter-intuitive that the cost of living is higher in urban Africa than in other cities in the global South.
One estimate suggests that food and drink cost 35% more in real terms in sub-Saharan African cities than in other countries, while housing is 55% more expensive.
This means that urban dwellers have to spend more of their income to enjoy the same quality of life. The average urban household in sub-Saharan Africa spends 39% to 59% of its budget on food alone.
Of course, there is considerable variation across the continent. Cities in The Gambia, Mauritania, Madagascar and Tanzania remain relatively affordable. Those in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi and Mozambique are the most expensive.
<div id="attachment_249934" style="width: 650px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-249934" class="wp-image-249934 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Angola_Luanda_Wikimedia.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426" />Luanda, Angola: Wikimedia</div>
The high price of basic goods and services means that people living in African cities have little money to spend on reducing risk, such as upgrading their homes, preventative health care or buying insurance.
African cities are not industrialising
Urbanisation has historically been closely linked to industrialisation. From Detroit to Manchester to Shenzhen, the rise of a vibrant manufacturing sector fuelled rapid population and economic growth in cities.
In sub-Saharan Africa, urbanisation is taking place without industrialisation.
One explanation for this unusual trend is that higher living costs mean that the labour force requires higher wages than competing cities in Asia. This makes it difficult for African cities to attract international capital.
In other cases, the export of commodities such as oil and diamonds have generated high income for a small share of people in countries such as Angola, Nigeria and Libya. The wealthy beneficiaries then create urban employment through demand for non-tradeable services such as retail, transport and construction.
Whatever the driver, urbanisation without industrialisation means that jobs and livelihoods too often remain low-skilled and poorly paid. Without the opportunity to develop skills and organise collectively, workers exert little influence over working conditions.
Instead, urban residents continue to depend on precarious livelihoods in the agricultural and services sectors. This means that they are susceptible to environmental shocks, such as extreme weather that can make it impossible for street vendors, waste pickers and other informal workers to ply their trade.
By comparison, manufacturing jobs have a number of spin offs. They offer income security and skill development. Local employers in the public and private sector benefit from new knowledge and skills, while workers can accumulate capital. This offers a path out of poverty. Few African cities are enjoying these positive spillovers.
The lack of industrialisation also means that there’s little political incentive for governments to invest in risk reducing infrastructure like sewers, drains and all weather roads.
African cities have a large informal economy
In many cities in sub-Saharan Africa, the informal economy is larger and more dynamic than the formal economy. The informal economy responds to demand when commercial banks are not willing to offer loans or when there isn’t enough housing. When formal jobs in industry or services are scarce, the informal economy absorbs much of the labour force. In Cotonou (Benin), Lomé (Togo) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), for example, the informal sector accounts for over 80% of non-agricultural employment.
Yet, in many African cities, government policies discriminate against these workers. For example, street vendors and waste collectors are often banned from using public spaces. They may even suffer harassment from government officials.
Yet they play a central role in increasing the resilience of the city.
Waste pickers recycle large amount of material, reducing pollution and maintain city cleanliness. This helps prevent diseases, particularly those spread by bacteria, insects and vermin that might otherwise feed or breed on garbage.
Street vendors play a critical role in providing and producing food, particularly to poor people living in urban areas.
<div id="attachment_249942" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-249942" class="wp-image-249942 size-medium" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Market_Ghana_Wikimedia-300x201.jpeg" alt="" width="300" height="201" />Tomato sellers at a market in Ghana: Wikimedia</div>
The informal economy is not perfect. Informality creates risks for consumers and workers. A lack of state oversight makes it difficult to enforce regulation, such as water treatment standards or minimum wages. Waste pickers in particular face severe health risks due to their work. Informal housing is often in hazard prone parts of the city.
But there can be little doubt that informal service provision or informal livelihoods are better than none at all.
Successful strategies to reduce risk therefore need to be developed in collaboration with informal workers in sectors such as food, water, housing and solid waste management. Similarly, partnerships with communities living in informal settlements can ensure that the voices of vulnerable urban residents are heard, and their needs are addressed.
Only through a more flexible and inclusive approach will African cities be able to manage the risks associated with their unique economic development path.

Op-Ed: The unique risks facing African cities

Tomas Stubbsh, Pamela Abbott | University of Cambridge,University of Aberdeen
&nbsp;
On 4 August 2017, Rwandans head to the polls to elect a president. They will choose between Frank Habineza, Philippe Mpayimana and the incumbent Paul Kagame.
Most observers expect a landslide victory for Kagame. But there’s controversy around the election because of a 2015 constitutional amendment that allowed him to seek a third seven-year term followed by two further five-year terms.
The Rwandan election is being watched closely by observers concerned about an erosion of democracy in the country. While some of these concerns are valid, they must be qualified against Rwanda’s historical and developmental realities.
At best, Rwanda can be characterised as an illiberal democracy, but this should not detract from the current regime’s successes. Nor is it a suggestion that Kagame shouldn’t lead. Under his tenure the country has enjoyed year-on-year socio-economic progress. In most situations, this would secure electoral victory.
<h2>The Kagame enigma</h2>
Kagame is the presidential candidate for the country’s ruling political party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). He commanded the rebel force that ended the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi. He then became vice president and, in 2000, president in the transitional government.
In 2003, he was elected president and then reelected in 2010. While he is generally seen as popular in the country, opinions around Kagame are polarised.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright wp-image-43491 size-medium" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/paul_kagame_wikipedia-300x235.jpg" alt="Rwanda’s economy on the right path: IMF" width="300" height="235" />
Some observers highlight the country’s robust economic growth record, poverty reduction, improvements in health access and outcomes, control of corruption, and relative stability achieved under Kagame’s leadership.
In a 2015 referendum Rwandans voted overwhelmingly in favour of Kagame ruling until 2034. Despite these accolades, Kagame is strongly criticised for the country’s tightly controlled political space.
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have accused Kagame’s government of creating a climate of fear through attacks on political opposition, journalists and human rights defenders.
<h2>The challengers</h2>
Frank Habineza is leader of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda, founded in 2009 but prevented from registering until 2013. In 2010, Habineza fled into exile following the murder of the party deputy, André Kagwa Rwisereka, but returned in 2012.
Habineza offers alternatives to programmes started by the RPF which he claims have become a burden on Rwandans. These include the crop and land intensification programmes. He has indicated that he would revisit land ownership and policies that enable the reclaiming of private property for public use.
Philippe Mpayimana is an independent candidate with no previous political track record. A former journalist and writer, he has authored several books on Rwanda’s social and political dynamics. Mpayimana lived in exile from 1994 until early 2017.
Mpayimana says that his main project will be to transform the countryinto a state with full democratic rights. Among other things he has said he will strengthen democratic institutions and restore the country’s culture and traditions.
<h2>Becoming a candidate</h2>
The legal criteria for becoming a presidential candidate are set out in the country’s electoral code and monitored by the National Electoral Commission. The commission stipulates that independent presidential aspirants must present 600 signatures, with at least 12 from each of the 30 districts of the country before they can be registered.
For this election, three potential candidates &#8211; Diane Rwigara, Fred Barafinda and Gilbert Mwenedata &#8211; did not meet this requirement.
Registered political parties can also field presidential candidates. But political parties are required to meet strict criteria and are locked out if they recognise ethnic divisions, deny the genocide, or have links with genocidaire militant groups.
As a result, several political parties have not been registered.
Of Rwanda’s 11 registered political parties, nine have opted to back Kagame. Of the remaining two, the Democratic Green Party fielded Habineza as candidate while the Social Party Imberakuri chose neither to field a candidate nor to back any other aspirant.
<h2>An illiberal democracy</h2>
For a country to be considered a democracy its politics must be competitive, participatory, and fair. Simply holding elections is not enough.
While elections in Rwanda are fair, with a low likelihood of pre-electoral violence or flagrant electoral malpractice, the Rwandan political system is neither participatory nor competitive.
Kagame is the certain victor because the relevant institutions are stacked in his favour. For one, the other candidates lack sufficient exposure and funding to conduct a successful campaign. They were only confirmed as candidates and thus allowed to begin fund raising on July 7th.
Meanwhile, the RPF is extremely well-resourced thanks to its private business arm Crystal Ventures Ltd, which is one of Rwanda’s largest investment companies. In effect, Kagame is the only candidate with the funds to campaign nationwide.
A second issue is access to information. The local media self-censors, choosing not to write anything critical of Kagame and the RPF. The majority of citizens only have access to domestic news outlets. Kagame will therefore appear as the best candidate.
<h2>Non-adversarial politics</h2>
What is sometimes interpreted by Western observers as a lack of political space is typically a failure to understand how politics is practised in Rwanda.
Rwanda remains an illiberal democracy in large part because of its prevailing political settlement. With the genocide against the Tutsi still in recent memory, Kagame and the RPF have committed to power-sharing only with parties that are firmly aligned against ethnic sectarianism.
As such, the government rules through dialogue and consensus. Decisions are made only once there is broad agreement among the political parties. Formal mechanisms of dialogue and consensus also permeate through society, even down to the village level. This has been the foundation on which Rwanda has built its post-genocide society.
This political settlement is grounded in the fear that a more adversarial style of policymaking and debate could give rise to extremism and undermine stability. And while there are still significant political and policy debates in Rwanda, these are framed in non-adversarial terms. Those who present themselves as divisive and adversarial, as did barred candidate Diane Rwigara, are excluded from politics.
It is worth pointing out that another East African country is in the middle of election fever. In Kenya, the election cycle reinforces deep ethnic divides, where political parties act as campaign vehicles for ethnic barons.
This reminds us that while politics in Rwanda does not fulfil Western democratic standards, competitive elections are no panacea.

Election guide: what you need to know about the Rwandan presidential poll

Tanzania is not targeting foreign employees of Acacia Mining Plc, the immigration department said, adding that the temporary detainment of one the London-listed miner&#8217;s senior staff was part of wider checks in an immigration crackdown.
Gold miner Acacia said on Friday that Tanzanian authorities had prevented one of its senior staff from leaving Dar es Salaam airport.
After legal intervention, he was released and his passport was returned. &#8220;The immigration department &#8230; does not target only Acacia Mining employees,&#8221; the Tanzania Immigration Services Department said in a statement late on Saturday. Acacia, the country&#8217;s largest miner, said last week it had been hit with a $190 billion tax bill and warned it would have to close its flagship Bulyanhulu mine by Sept. 30 if a government ban on its exports is not lifted.
&#8220;We are required by law to question any Tanzanian citizen or foreigner regardless of his position &#8230; and release them without charge if their immigration papers are in order as in the case of employees of Acacia Mining who were recently questioned,&#8221; the immigration department said.
It added that there were no factors outside of the requirements of the Immigration Act that would prompt the department to restrict the entrance or exit of Acacia&#8217;s expatriate employees.
President John Magufuli has threatened to shut all gold mines in the country if mining companies delay talks to resolve a dispute over billions of dollars in back taxes which the government says they owe. Majority-owned by Canada&#8217;s Barrick Gold Corp, Acacia says it is in full compliance with the law and has paid all relevant taxes. Magufuli&#8217;s stance has rocked the mining sector in Tanzania, Africa&#8217;s fourth-largest gold producer, and driven Acacia&#8217;s shares down by more than 50 percent this year. Barrick, which owns a 63.9 percent stake in Acacia, said last week it has an &#8220;open mind&#8221; and is &#8220;very positive&#8221; about talks getting underway with Tanzania to resolve an export ban on gold and copper concentrates. Magufuli and Barrick Chairman John Thornton agreed at a mid-June meeting to hold discussions to resolve the row. Acacia has two mines affected by the ban which Tanzania introduced in March. They account for some 6 percent of Barrick&#8217;s 2017 gold production forecast.
Reporting by Fumbuka Ng&#8217;wanakilala; editing by George Obulutsa and Jason Neely

Tanzania says not targeting Acacia staff in immigration crackdown

Dumisani Bengu | Head: Franchise Africa, Barclays Africa
With South Africa’s economy seeing consecutive negative growth that has placed it in the grips of a technical – but very real – recession, it will come as no surprise that there are adverse implications for business growth as customers keep on cutting their spending and tightening that much-written-about belt.
One industry that has successfully fought these headwinds is franchising. It has proven in many countries, to be resilient even in the face of extensive macroeconomic difficulties.
This is borne out by the fact that the sector &#8211; which grew by 10 percent even at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 &#8211; has continued to grow every year.  Year-to-date, Absa’s franchise book has shown 15 percent growth on loans over the same period last year. This illustrates a remarkably healthy appetite for franchising and pursuing opportunities in the various industries that comprise the overall sector.
What typically safeguards these types of businesses from broader economic challenges is the established trust they have with consumers. This stands franchises in good stead when consumers are watching their spending more carefully. It is a natural shift as they look for absolute certainty from the brands and companies they support – and franchises, with their well-known and trustworthy brands, offer that security.
There are 17 business sectors that fall under the franchising umbrella in South Africa. The four largest contributors to the growth of the franchising – and, by association, the where the greatest opportunities lie – are the services sector, which encompasses health and beauty, auto and funeral services, among others.
This burgeoning sector makes up 27 percent of the franchising market. Restaurants and Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) account for 24 percent, while Retail out-muscles Fuel with 16 percent versus Fuel’s 11 percent.
Interested in franchising? Consider this. 
The services sector remains the fastest growing within the larger ecosystem and is set to continue to offer promising business prospects. However, even with a positive forecast, the industry is at the mercy of an increasingly competitive business landscape and there are certain tips that prospective franchisees should heed if they are hoping to make the move into franchising:
<ul>
<li>Look for Mergers and Acquisitions (M&amp;A) opportunities to find the balance between value and good quality: With substantial pressure being exerted on the country’s economy and a challenging operating environment leading to many of the bigger, more secure players buying out the smaller companies, those looking to enter the franchising sector need to find the sweet spot between value, quality and price – particularly in the cost-sensitive retail and QSR spaces.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>Take into account the entire franchising value chain: A franchise with a robust brand reputation, integrity and equity that is able to excite customers is a must. But so is an agreement between franchisors and franchisees that is fair, sustainable and protects the rights of both parties. Franchising is a codified business, so potential franchisees need to ensure that there is a comprehensive and elaborate franchising manual in place.</li>
</ul>
o   Consider the operations process: Interested parties should look at the quality and consistency of training programmes in order to ensure that they are able to stay at the forefront of their chosen industry.
o   Don’t forget the importance of sales and marketing: A strong sales and marketing strategy is priceless, so it is critical to make sure upfront that the sales and marketing strategy is strong.
o   Look to implement a service model that is robust and places customers at its heart: High-intensity strategies that enhance service delivery are the markers of successful franchises. Anyone looking to make the move into any sphere of the franchising world needs to make sure that they place efficient service delivery on top of their list of priorities.
o   Prioritise a streamlined supply chain: A well-run franchise relies on bulk buying, centralised distribution and well-organised logistics systems. If a franchisee is able to tick those boxes, they will benefit from an efficient supply chain and it will be that much easier to focus on guaranteeing customer satisfaction.
<ul>
<li>Make sure that you are following a passion: Even with the extra layer of protection that comes from buying into a trusted brand, opening a franchise takes a lot of hard work, time and commitment. So it makes sense to choose a field that there is some connection with and passion for in order to make the inevitable sacrifices that come with starting a business worthwhile.</li>
</ul>
Franchising ultimately comes with multiple benefits &#8211;  not least of which is the safety blanket of the business owner knowing that there is a partner to hold their hand and guide them through the pitfalls and challenges of opening their own business. Banks tend to look at funding applications more favourably because of the added security of a franchise’s established customer base in the market.
Undoubtedly, however bleak the economic outlook may seem, there are always those who find the gap in the market. Typically, franchising offers more gaps than other industries. This is why Absa continues to offer a basket of financial instruments and lending solutions to help build the sector and partner with those who see beyond the challenges to the opportunities for growth.

Franchising: a safe bet in a tough economic climate?

Dan Paget | University of Oxford
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The Tanzanian government has asked Acacia Mining, a subsidiary of the world’s largest gold mining company Barrick Gold, to pay approximately USD$190 billion in revised taxes, interest and fines. This latest development is a game changer in a dispute that pits mining companies against President John Magufuli’s government. It makes both nationalisation and mine closures more likely.
Until this revised tax notice was served, the overhaul of Tanzania’s mining regime had a great deal going for it. Previous policy had given miners an easy ride. Low taxes and generous license terms were sweetened by further tax breaks and exemptions.
Tanzania’s mining sector contributes nearly 3% to GDP annually. Tanzanite and diamond mines are scheduled to be joined by large uranium, coal and iron projects which are under development, but the largest operational mines produce gold. Acacia and AngloGold Ashanti run 4 large gold mines between them that extracted 37 tonnes of gold last year. According to the World Gold Council, Tanzania is the fourth largest gold producer in Africa.
Recently three 3 laws were passed that squeeze the mining companies for revenue. They include shareholding entitlements, higher royalty rates and further tax rises.
The new legislation introduced sweeping new requirements intended to support the country’s industrial goals. Mining companies are now required to train Tanzanians, give preference to local suppliers and to source from joint ventures between domestic and foreign firms if domestic suppliers cannot be found. These rules mean additional costs for miners, but a boost for Tanzanian employees and firms that could become nascent industries.
While the new requirements were all painful for mining companies, they promised significant benefits for Tanzania and merited a try. Ultimately, engineers and economists will have to calculate whether mining companies can make those concessions without operating at a loss.
But the questions are technical and the answers are not well established. It’s possible that the mines could still be economically viable even after this policy overhaul.
Whether its tactics were good or not, the Tanzanian government had reasons for adopting a brazen approach to negotiations with the mining companies too. After it announced a series of changes in 2016, it was confronted by mining company intransigence. Their development agreements enshrined protections against all manner of intrusions and impositions. They seemed resolved to impede changes by resorting to delaying tactics, legal obstacles and arbitration.
But Magufuli’s decision to scrap development agreements between the government and mining companies and to prohibit international arbitration sent a clear message: companies didn’t have a lot of choice.
His unilateral and combative approach smacks of domestic politics. But it could also serve to dissuade the mining companies from a course of resistance.
It showed mining companies how far the Tanzanian government was willing to go and how much they wanted. It quickly provoked concessions. Acacia agreed to some of the terms two weeks ago. But if it hoped these would placate Magufuli, they were wrong.
<h2>Counting to $190 billion</h2>
Until the tax bill was tabled, it seemed as though Magufuli wanted a new settlement with the mining companies. Now it looks as though he wants new mining companies.
To put the USD$190 billion figure in context, all the proven and probable gold in Acacia’s mines is worth just over USD$10 billion at today’s prices. Including sites under exploration and the further inferred and estimated deposits, there is a further USD$24 billion worth of gold, and further deposits of silver and copper.
After these minerals are mined and processed, profits will be just a fraction of that. And even if there is as much gold as guessed, it will take decades to liberate it. In short, Acacia can never make enough to pay USD$190 billion in taxes. It would close the mines before they paid a sum that tall.
The sum of USD$190 billion was reached in fines, interest and backdated tax revisions in light of two presidential committees. The first reported that Acacia had grossly under reported the amount of gold in containers of copper-gold concentrate bound for export. The second estimated the revenue that the government had lost over the years, and the tax demand takes that into account.
If the committee findings were correct, Acacia might be sitting on enough gold to pay up, but this is not likely. If the committee’s conclusions were true, Buzwagi and Bulyanhulu mines would be the second and third largest in the world. Tanzania would have produced not 55 tonnes of gold last year, but 154 tonnes. That would representapproximately 5% of world gold mine production. Sums of that scale affect shares, currency appreciation and even the world gold price, and that makes it unlikely that past production was kept secret as the committee suggests.
<h2>What next?</h2>
There are any number of reasons for the Tanzanian government’s decision to submit the tax demand – even if it doesn’t think that Acacia will ever pay. It could be a further bargaining ploy, a plea for attention, a failure of coordination or a strategic miscalculation.
But the most likely explanation is that this is part of a mounting campaign to drive the miners out of Tanzania altogether. Last week, Magufuli announced that if the mining companies continued to delay negotiations,
<blockquote>I will close all mines and give them to Tanzanians.</blockquote>
With every new development, this threat seems less and less an idle boast.

All bets off as Magufuli’s resource nationalism moves up a gear in Tanzania

HARARE (Reuters) &#8211; Zimbabwean First Lady Grace Mugabe on Thursday challenged her president husband Robert to name his preferred successor to end deepening divisions over the future leadership of the ruling ZANU-PF party, state television said in an online report.
Africa&#8217;s oldest leader, Mugabe, 93, has ruled the former British colony since independence in 1980 but has insisted that ZANU-PF, and not him, will choose his eventual successor when the time comes.
But at a meeting of ZANU-PF&#8217;s women&#8217;s wing in the capital Harare, Grace Mugabe contradicted the veteran leader, who also attended the meeting, saying he should name a successor.
&#8220;The First Lady and Zanu PF Secretary for Women&#8217;s Affairs has challenged the President to name his successor saying this has been the trend in other countries,&#8221; ZBC said online.
&#8220;The First Lady said there is nothing wrong with Mugabe naming his successor, saying the move will enable all members to rally behind one candidate.&#8221;
Mugabe did not speak at the meeting.
Fighting over leadership of a post-Mugabe ZANU-PF has intensified in the last three years, with two distinct camps emerging, one supporting Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa and the other rooting for Grace Mugabe.
Mugabe is ZANU-PF&#8217;s presidential candidate for the 2018 election, his last under the constitution. He will be 99 years if he wins and completes the five-year term.
Elections are due after July 21 next year, according to the constitution, but political analysts say Mugabe could call for an early vote, citing his frail health, and that he may want to take advantage of divisions within opposition ranks.
http://cnbc.africa/news/2017/05/26/frequent-flier-mugabe-racks-air-miles-dollars/
<div class="DPSlot_container_2dHIN DPSlot_inline_1oeo6 in-article-tag">An early election would require parliament to vote to dissolve itself, which is highly possible given ZANU-PF&#8217;s commanding majority in parliament.</div>
Zimbabwe has since independence always held elections in March, with the exception of 2000 and 2013, both years when elections were delayed by a constitutional referendum.
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Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Robin Pomeroy
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Zimbabwean First Lady Grace Mugabe urges husband to name successor

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<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/jeff-bezos/">Jeff Bezos</a> is the richest man in the world, with a fortune of over $90 billion.
According to Forbes and Bloomberg, the Amazon CEO had a net worth of over $89 billion as of the close of markets Wednesday, while <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/bill-gates/">Bill Gates</a> had a net worth of just over $90 billion.
<a class="inline_quotes" href="http://www.cnbc.com/quotes?symbol=AMZN" data-gdsid="9399" data-inline-quote-symbol="AMZN">Amazon&#8217;s</a> share price has jumped by more than $15 a share overnight, and was recently trading near that level, while Microsoft is down slightly. If the stocks hold up today, Bezos — who around 80 million shares of Amazon — will add more than $800 million to his fortune. That would put him past Gates, assuming the valuations of their non-stock holdings haven&#8217;t changed.
<div id="inline_movable_ad"> Of course, Amazon stock could pull back, or Microsoft could rally. But even if Bezos doesn&#8217;t end the day as the richest man, he will likely take the crown from Gates more permanently in the coming days and weeks.</div>
When he hits the mark, Bezos, who started selling books from his garage 22 years ago, becomes the first man to bump Gates from his perch in seven years and is only the sixth man to hold the &#8220;richest person&#8221; title in the past 30 years, according to Forbes.
Bezos&#8217; rise carries important symbolic weight — signaling Amazon&#8217;s unbridled power and value, presenting a new face of outsized wealth to the world and heralding a new kind of billionaire who is skeptical of philanthropy and has massive reach in culture, technology and media. Bezos will be a stark contrast to his fellow Seattle-area resident Gates, who has topped the list for much of the past quarter-century and devotes his time and money to philanthropy.
What&#8217;s most astounding about Bezos&#8217; rise is his recent wealth surge. He has been a billionaire for nearly 20 years, first making the Forbes list in 1998 with a net worth of $1.6 billion after Amazon&#8217;s IPO. He chugged along for the following decade, reaching $4.4 billion in 2007, gradually rising to $18.4 billion by 2012, ranking him 26th on the list.
But over the past two years, as Amazon&#8217;s stock has soared, so has Bezos&#8217; fortune. He owns 79.9 million shares, or just under 17 percent of the company. His net worth has grown by $70 billion over the past five years, surging by $45 billion in the last two years alone — possibly the largest wealth-creation surge in history.
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<div class="pro-video-chapters fall dyperf dyMonitor" data-adid="535383||2071|||">Of course, Bezos avoids talking publicly about his wealth. Like most tech tycoons, he insists he&#8217;s trying to change the world rather than get rich. In his commencement speech at Princeton, Bezos said he had the idea of selling books on the internet while he was working at a New York hedge fund. Torn between his high-paying job and a risky start-up, he chose the start-up.</div>
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&#8220;I took the less safe path to follow my passion and I&#8217;m proud of that choice,&#8221; he said.
Bezos may not only be the richest man in the world today — he might become the richest man ever, at least measured in pure dollars. At his peak Gates was worth $90 billion, marking the largest single fortune ever. With little sign that Amazon&#8217;s momentum may be slowing, Bezos could well be the first 12-digit man, worth $100 billion one day.
On Thursday, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/amazon-is-on-its-way-to-becoming-a-2000-stock-says-leading-analyst.html">a leading analyst said that Amazon &#8220;could be the first trillion-dollar company&#8221; with its stock doubling to $2,000.</a>
Indeed, Bezos&#8217; rise to the top of the rich list shows just how large and fast today&#8217;s biggest fortunes have become. In the 1980s, Saudi businessman Adnan Khashoggi was considered the richest man in the world with a net worth of around $4 billion. By 1995, when Gates first became the richest man, he was worth $12.9 billion.
By 2005, Gates was still topping the list at $50 billion.
In 1987, according to Forbes, there were 140 billionaires in the world with a combined net worth of $295 billion. Now, billionaires number 2,043 and have a combined $7.7 trillion. In fact there were more new billionaires in the world in 2016 — 233 — than the entire population of billionaires in 1987.
Gates has been the richest man for 18 of the past 23 years. The only interlopers were <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/carlos-slim/">Carlos Slim of Mexico,</a> who was the richest man between 2010 and 2012, and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/warren-buffett/">Warren Buffett</a>, who was the richest in 2008.
Indeed, with the exception of Slim and the occasional overseas billionaire, Gates and Buffett have been a duopoly at the top of the rich list. Their close friendship and partnering in philanthropy made them a potent symbol of the philanthropic side of wealth.
Bezos will be a different figurehead. Unlike Gates, he is still actively running and building a business. He is far more press-averse, rarely giving interviews or public addresses. He is hyper-competitive. And he is only moderately — some would say barely — philanthropic.
But like Gates and Buffett, Bezos is not given to many flashy displays of wealth. He has loads of real estate — he bought the most expensive home in Washington, D.C., and owns homes in Beverly Hills, California, and New York along with his spread in Medina, Washington — and is one of the nation&#8217;s largest landowners, with over 300,000 acres.
He also owns The Washington Post and founded Blue Origin, the space-travel company. Yet Bezos drove his 1996 Honda Accord long after he became a billionaire.
When asked how his life changed when he became a billionaire he said: &#8220;Personally, it hasn&#8217;t changed at all. The big difference is that we now have $50 million in the bank, which is huge.&#8221;
With a net worth topping $90 billion, Bezos&#8217; definition of &#8220;huge&#8221; may have changed.
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Amazon’s Jeff Bezos is the world’s richest man

Department store Stuttafords, the 159-year-old &#8220;Harrods of South Africa&#8221;, is closing down, victim of a global shift to online retail and a domestic economic slump that has put brands such as Ted Baker (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=TED.L">TED.L</a>) and Gap (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=GPS.N">GPS.N</a>) beyond its customers&#8217; reach.
Mirroring the fortunes of once-mighty department stores in Europe and the United States, the doyenne of the South African high street during apartheid and the two decades since applied for protection from creditors in October.
However, attempts to revive its fortunes proved futile and creditors voted in June to wind up the unlisted firm by Aug. 1, with closing-down sales at its nine stores in South Africa, two in Botswana and one in Namibia.
In its flagship store in Johannesburg&#8217;s Sandton financial district, piles of naked mannequins lay in heaps next to bare shelves as the last few bargain hunters picked through trays of heavily discounted perfumes, make-up and clothes.
&#8220;We don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s going to happen &#8211; if we will still have jobs,&#8221; said one employee, who did not want to be named for fear of hurting her chances of staying on. &#8220;We only heard that maybe this shop will be one that will not close.&#8221;
For South Africa, it is the end of a piece of retail history.
The first shop was opened in Cape Town in 1858 by Samson Rickard Stuttaford with the vision of creating a Harrods-like department store in what was then Britain&#8217;s Cape Colony.
Its main Cape Town store, opened in 1938, was designed by in-house Harrods architect Louis David Blanc and echoed the British store&#8217;s famous frontage in London&#8217;s exclusive Knightsbridge district.
Through various changes of ownership, it never lost its focus on the middle and upper-class South African market, despite the economy&#8217;s failure to recover fully from a deep recession in 2009 sparked by the global financial crisis.
Chief Executive Robert Amoils could not be reached for comment but has defended his approach to the tough conditions.
&#8220;I believe the path we set was correct,&#8221; he told business website Fin24. &#8220;We ran out of time. The market downturn was so swift, so severe.&#8221;
John Evans, a lawyer overseeing its closure, said he had received a last-minute approach that could salvage two Johannesburg outlets, in Sandton and Eastgate, which would save the jobs of 300 of the group&#8217;s 950 staff.
&#8220;There&#8217;s a chance we&#8217;ll save Sandton and Eastgate. If we do, we should be able to save 300 jobs,&#8221; he said.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-236748 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Stuttafords_01.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="246" />
<h3 data-reactid="58">&#8220;Fall from Grace&#8221;</h3>
Nearly all retailers in Africa&#8217;s most sophisticated economy have struggled as consumer sentiment has hit multi-year lows, a result of high unemployment and inflation gnawing at disposable income. The economy is now back in recession.
The slump is piling pressure on President Jacob Zuma, who faces increasing calls to resign due to a slew of corruption scandals and accusations of mishandling the economy.
Macy&#8217;s (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=M.N">M.N</a>) and Nordstrom JWN.M in the United States have also hit tough times, suggesting Stuttafords&#8217; woes are not unique to South Africa, Sasha Naryshkine of local asset manager Vestact said.
The main squeeze has come from cheaper retailers such as South Africa&#8217;s Woolworths (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=WHLJ.J">WHLJ.J</a>), Sweden&#8217;s H&amp;M (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=HMb.ST">HMb.ST</a>) and Spain&#8217;s Zara (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=ITX.MC">ITX.MC</a>).
&#8220;The fall from grace in all these department stores is that people can get the same stuff online and there is a rise of other quality brands at a cheaper price,&#8221; Naryshkine said. &#8220;In an economic downturn, people are going to shop down.&#8221;
Nor is Stuttafords alone.
Footwear and accessories chain Nine West, owned by U.S. buyout firm Sycamore Partners, and Spanish fashion chain Mango, whose local licences are held by House of Busby, have closed stand-alone outlets due to poor sales.
&#8220;The brands did not meet the required return on invested capital hurdles,&#8221; House of Busby Chief Executive Mark Sardi said.
Edcon&#8217;s [EDCNP.UL] Edgars, another clothing retailer ubiquitous in South African shopping malls, was taken over by creditors last year and had to restructure debt.
In May, no-frills retailer Mr Price (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=MRPJ.J">MRPJ.J</a>) posted its first annual drop in profits in 16 years, while rivals Woolworths and Truworths (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=TRUJ.J">TRUJ.J</a>) flagged lower or stalling earnings last week.
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Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Ed Cropley and Susan Thomas
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Stuttafords – “South Africa’s Harrods” closes its doors after 159 years

Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Eelke Heemskerk, Frank Takes, Jan Fichtner | University of Amsterdam
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First came the <a href="https://panamapapers.icij.org/">Panama Papers</a>, then the <a href="https://www.icij.org/tags/bahamas-leaks">BahamasLeaks</a>. Journalists continue to shed light on and raise a public outcry over the offshore financial centres that corporations use to reduce their tax bill – something that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/de228b90-3632-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3">is still being challenged in court</a>.
A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-06322-9">new study</a> has now uncovered all the world’s corporate tax havens and, for the first time, revealed the intermediary countries that companies use to funnel their money into these places.
Published on July 24 in the academic journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/srep/">Scientific Reports</a>, the paper Uncovering Offshore Financial Centers: Conduits and Sinks in the Global Corporate Ownership Network shows that offshore finance is not the exclusive business of exotic, far-flung places such as the Cayman Islands and Bermuda.
The Netherlands and the United Kingdom also play a crucial – although a heretofore obscure – role in the tax-avoidance game, acting as conduits for corporate profits as they make their way to tax havens.
<h2>What makes a tax shelter</h2>
Tax havens are a popular, legal and often secret instrument for multinational corporations to move capital across borders. By taking advantage of loopholes in various national legislations and placing operations in countries with low taxes, companies can reduce their tax rate from around 35% to 25% to 15% or lower.
Figure 1: The United States Effective Corporate Tax Rate (1947-2011)
<div id="attachment_236300" style="width: 764px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-236300" class="wp-image-236300 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Figure_01_Graph-1.png" alt="" width="754" height="385" />American companies use clever (and legal) tactics to offshore profits and reduce their tax burden. US Federal Reserve via Wikimedia</div>
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Silicon Valley companies have become expert at this tactic. Using a combination of subsidiaries in Ireland, the Netherlands and Bermuda to reduce its tax burden, Apple paid just 0.005% tax on its European profits in 2014, the European Comission reported.
If multinationals’ profits were accounted for where the economic activity takes place, they would pay a combined US$500 to US$650 billion more on taxes each year, according to estimates by the Tax Justice Network and the International Monetary Fund. Of this, around US$200 billion a year would go to developing countries, which is more than they receive annually in development aid (US$142.6 billion).
Findings like this have put tax havens on the radar of US and European regulators, but there’s no broadly accepted definition of what makes a country an offshore financial centre.
Lists published by the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/ctp/harmful/2090192.pdf">Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development</a> (OECD) and the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/050808.pdf">International Monetary Fund</a> use different criteria to define tax shelters, and their outcomes are highly politicised.
The Tax Justice Network’s <a href="http://www.financialsecrecyindex.com/">Financial Secrecy Index</a>, Oxfam’s <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/tax-battles-dangerous-global-race-bottom-corporate-tax">list of the worst corporate tax havens</a> and Jan Fichtner’s 2015 <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2928027">Offshore-Intensity Ratio</a> have proven to be more useful.
Fichtner (a co-author of this article) provides a rough yardstick for judging OFC jurisdictions by examining the proportion between foreign capital, such as FDI, and the size of the domestic economy.
What none of these measures can tell us, though, is the origin of the foreign investment reported by these tax havens. How does Apple’s money get from California to Bermuda anyway?
<h2>Big data and network analysis</h2>
By bringing together political economists and computer scientists in the <a href="http://corpnet.uva.nl/">CORPNET</a> research group at the University of Amsterdam, it became possible to study how corporations make use of particular countries and jurisdictions in their international ownership structures. The novel, data-driven network approach of our study shed light on how offshore finance flows across the globe.
We looked not at country-level statistics but at detailed company data. By asking which countries and jurisdictions play a role in corporate ownership chains that is <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp0787.pdf">incommensurate with the size of their domestic economies</a>, we were able to identify, for the first time, a complex global web of offshore financial centres.
We analysed the entire massive global network of ownership relations, with information of over 98 million firms and 71 million ownership relations. This granular firm-level network data helped us to distinguish two kinds of tax havens: sinks and conduits.
<h2>Introducing sinks and conduits</h2>
“Sink OFCs” attract and retain foreign capital. We identified 24 sink OFCs, including well-known tax havens such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/17/luxembourg-tax-haven-blacklist-brussels-european-commission">Luxembourg</a>, <a href="http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2095852/how-hong-kong-can-shed-its-reputation-tax-haven">Hong Kong</a>, the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/04/04/british-virgin-islands-portrait-of-a-tax-haven.html">British Virgin Islands</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/12/bermuda-is-worlds-worst-corporate-tax-haven-says-oxfam">Bermuda</a>, and the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2016.1243143">Cayman Islands</a>, but also Taiwan, a heretofore <a href="https://theconversation.com/www.taxjustice.net/2016/02/10/taiwan-the-un-noticed-asian-tax-haven">unnoticed tax haven</a>.
Using our method, we can now investigate which jurisdictions are used by corporations en route to sinks. These “conduit OFCs” are attractive intermediate destinations because their numerous tax treaties, low or zero withholding taxes, strong legal systems and good reputations for enabling the quiet transfer of capital without taxation.
Figure 2: Mapping equity flows
<div id="attachment_236325" style="width: 764px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-236325" class="wp-image-236325 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Figure_02.png" alt="" width="754" height="752" />The size of conduits (green) and sinks (red) reflects the investment that flows through the country. The colour to its position as a sink (blue = no sink, red = sink). The size of the arrows is proportional to the investment between two countries and the colour to its importance (blue = lower flow than expected, red = higher flow than expected). CORPNET</div>
We found that a handful of big countries – the Netherlands, the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Ireland – serve as the world’s conduit OFCs. Together, these five conduits channel 47% of corporate offshore investment from tax havens, according to the data we analysed.
The Netherlands leads the pack with 23%, followed by the UK (14%), Switzerland (6%), Singapore (2%) and Ireland (1%).
Each conduit jurisdiction is specialised both geographically and in industrial sectors. The Netherlands excels in holding companies, for example, while Luxembourg favours “administrative services”. Hong Kong’s geographic speciality lies in connecting to the British Virgin Islands and Taiwan.
<h2>New targets</h2>
Our findings debunk the myth of tax shelters as exotic far-flung islands that are difficult, if not impossible, to regulate. Many offshore financial centres are highly developed countries with strong regulatory environments.
That means that targeting conduit OFCs rather than sinks could prove more effective in stemming tax avoidance. This realisation may help European Union and the OECD officials, who <a href="http://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/">have increased pressure on cracking down on tax avoidance</a> since the 2008-2009 financial crisis (to modest effect), by helping regulators better tailor their policies.
British Finance Minister Philip Hammond has speculated that the UK could become a European tax haven if the EU fails to offer it a good Brexit deal. But, in practice, the City of London is already a major offshore financial centre.
Figure 3: Sink Offshore Financial Centres
<div id="attachment_236330" style="width: 764px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-236330" class="wp-image-236330 size-full" src="http://cnbc.africa/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Figure_03.png" alt="" width="754" height="389" />Jurisdictions in blue have been under British sovereignty in the past or are still UK dependencies. CORPNET, Author provided</div>
Of 24 sink OFCs, 18 have a current or past dependence to the UK, including major tax havens such as the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands and Jersey. New territories with low or no corporate taxes are continuously emerging as sink OFCs, but, as our study shows, there are just a handful of conduit OFCs.
Results and details are available on the dedicated website <a href="https://www.ofcmeter.org/">www.ofcmeter.org</a>

Tax Havens: Five countries that enable corporations to hide money

Why the Future is Kenya

Nigeria&#8217;s upper house of parliament backed a series of constitutional amendments on Wednesday that could weaken the presidency and boost the legislature, the latest twist in a two-year power struggle between the two institutions.
The head of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, who is pushing the changes, said they would help boost Nigeria&#8217;s development but a senior official in President Muhammadu Buhari&#8217;s government said they amounted to &#8220;a very unhealthy&#8221; power grab.
Saraki has been tipped as a possible eventual successor to the ailing Buhari, who has spent more time this year in Britain receiving treatment for an undisclosed medical problem than he has in Nigeria. Buhari, 74, is currently again in Britain.
&#8220;What we have done today definitely is to lay the foundation for a far-reaching reform of our political, economic and social development,&#8221; Saraki said after the Senate vote.
The amendments must still be approved by the lower house and two thirds of Nigeria&#8217;s 36 regional state parliaments and then be signed off by the president.
The measures include providing certain legal immunity to members of the legislature, reducing the president&#8217;s ability to withhold assent for a bill passed by parliament, and removing law-making powers from the executive.
The Senate also voted to impose time limits on key presidential decisions such as nominating ministers and proposing federal budgets, both of which have been much-delayed under Buhari.
A senior government official, who declined to be named because not authorized to speak to the media on the matter, criticized the Senate&#8217;s move.
&#8220;The executive sees this development as very unhealthy because laws should be made for the overall interest of the nation and not some people or an arm of government wanting to aggregate more powers to themselves,&#8221; the official said.
The lower chamber, the House of Representatives, is due to vote on the proposed amendments on Thursday.
Analysts noted the sensitive timing of the Senate move.
&#8220;The amendments do raise the profile of the Senate and their passage at this particular moment, with the president outside the country, although not law without his approval, will be interpreted by some in the political establishment as a bid by the Senate leadership to dilute the executive&#8217;s authority,&#8221; said Antony Goldman of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting.
Saraki, 54, hails from Buhari&#8217;s All Progressives Congress, but he assumed the Senate presidency in 2015 without the party&#8217;s support but with the backing of the opposition.
As Senate leader &#8211; constitutionally the third most powerful position in the country after the president and vice-president &#8211; he has proven a nimble political operator. Despite numerous accusations of misconduct and investigations, none have stuck to him.
Saraki has often been a thorn in the side of the presidency, with parliament repeatedly blocking presidential appointments to key positions.
Nigeria&#8217;s state budget both last year and this were only signed into law after many delays, often caused by battles between the parliament and the presidency over the allocation of federal funds to key projects.
Saraki has also criticized Buhari for allowing power to be concentrated among the president&#8217;s chief of staff and an inner circle at the presidential villa.
<div class="Attribution_attribution_o4ojT" data-reactid="47">
Reporting by Paul Carsten; Additional reporting by Alexis Akwagyiram in Lagos and Camillus Eboh, Tife Owolabi and Felix Onuah in Abuja; Editing by Gareth Jones
</div>

Nigerian Senate backs plans to reduce power of presidency

I’ve always loved a really good magic trick. The kind that makes you think to yourself, “there’s no way he did that…” A few years ago, I went to one of those over-the-top, magic shows in Las Vegas while I was on vacation. During the performance, the magician did this trick where he took a fluffy, white rabbit and put it into his black top hat. He showed the audience the inside of the hat first to prove that it was completely empty. Then, once the rabbit was inside, he put the hat on a table that was on-stage with him, waved his hands above it, mumbled some magical, mumbo jumbo, and then presto, one by one, proceeded to pull out ten or so beautiful, white doves.
How did he do that???
Well, in a lot of ways, that magic trick was kind of like what genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are to farming. Because GMOs are also magical. They’re transformative. And they work. Africa suffers from cataclysmic food shortages like no one else on the planet. Many countries there have struggled through lost harvests due to drought, man-made land degradation, and declining soil fertility among other things. Coupled with surging population growth, that’s a bad combination, especially as the number of Africans is expected to double to 2.4 billion by the year 2050. That’s a lot of mouths to feed. And importing food to help fill the gap is costly. With government coffers across the continent severely constrained, largely because of the decline in state revenues due to the commodity slump, Africa will need to grow more of its own food.  And on a continent, that, according to the United Nations, already has over 230 million people, or roughly a quarter of its population, facing hunger and malnutrition, this is a big, and very ugly, question mark.
Essentially, GMOs are genetic engineering, or a more precise method of plant breeding. They allow scientists to take a desirable <a href="https://gmoanswers.com/glossary#Trait">trait</a> found in nature, such as better tolerance of drought conditions, and transfer it from one plant to another. Given the severity of the droughts that much of Africa has suffered through recently, and will unquestionably suffer again in the future, using science that enables crops to have better moisture retention for instance, makes sense.
GMOs also help to increase crop yields and feed more people. In the Western world, where there is generally an abundance of food, eating organically is a “life-style” choice that, depending on your views, may be healthier for you. But in much of the developing world, where food is often-times scarce, multi-year droughts are common, and the soil has exhausted most of its value, GMOs help farmers level the playing field against mother nature. Or more precisely, climate change. In many ways, GMOs are like that magic trick from the show in Las Vegas. They make one bunny into ten white doves. Put simply, as it relates to Africa, they help to produce better performing crops in otherwise inhospitable and challenging environments.
And while GMOs are all the rage in the agriculture sector, they are also causing all the rage within political circles, depending on which side of the argument you’re on. Certainly, in the West. On the left, green activists will tell you that GMOs make food unhealthy for consumption, promote increased pesticide use, and can cause dangerous side effects, including new categories of food allergies. Not to mention their associated herbicides can harm birds, insects, amphibians, marine ecosystems, and soil organisms. On the other side of the argument, according to Matin Qaim, Professor of International Food Economics and Rural Development at the University of Goettingen in Germany, after combining the results of several investigations, he found the agronomic and economic impacts of genetically modified crops to be beneficial on a global scale. On average, according to Qaim, GMO technology adoption has actually reduced chemical pesticide use by 37%, increased crop yields by 22% and increased farmer profits by 68%.
But, irrespective of which side of the argument you fall, part of the problem is that many consumers are poorly educated with respect to GMOs, and simply allow social media and negative media buzz to shape their thinking. That’s certainly true in the US and Europe. Most people know a little bit about GMOs, but not much more than that. In South Africa, the problem is even worse. A government initiative called the “Public Understanding of Biotechnology”, found that of the 7,000 adults aged 16 and older that participated in the study, eight out of ten had no knowledge of biotechnology, or any real understanding of what GMOs are. The study also found that 63% of the respondents were unaware if they had ever eaten any food containing genetically modified ingredients. Furthermore, 71% of the products produced in South Africa labelled “GMO free,” or “organic,” actually contained genetically modified ingredients.
Africa’s population is exploding before our eyes. Its soil is hurting and its skies have been dry. It desperately needs an edge. Science and GMOs are like the magic fairy dust that can give Africa, and much of the rest of the developing world, the ability to feed more of their people. But government leaders will need to fully embrace GMO technology even more so than it does today. Like Africa, the rest of the world’s population is increasing rapidly too, and is expected to hit 9 billion by the year 2050. If these forecasts are reached, it will necessitate that we double the world’s current food production in order to feed all the people, according to most accepted projections. And with climate change continuing to impact, and diminish, the amount of earth’s arable land, GMOs are now vital.
This will not only require considerable internal support and commitment, but significant capital investment as well. Africa’s leaders need to work closely with agriculture giants like Monsanto, Syngenta, and DuPont and apply the newest, cutting-edge science available. If they don’t, they will face a gargantuan, if not impossible, task feeding their burgeoning populations in the years to come. But, if they embrace biotechnology and GMOs, they too, can have their own gaudy, glittering magic shows just like the ones in Las Vegas, and turn a single, white bunny into a giant flock of beautiful, majestic doves.
*Author David S. Levin is a Managing Partner at Nexus Capital Markets, LLC, micro-Blogging on all things Africa. A New York investor’s view of Africa and other emerging economies. Nexus Capital Markets is a leading Pan-African/U.S. investment bank located in NY and JHB.
&nbsp;

Op-Ed: GMOs could be the solution to Africa’s food shortages

Prof. Quinton Johnson | Nelson Mandela University
&nbsp;
A more than 365 year history of colonialism and apartheid have indelibly affected land, heritage and human rights in South Africa.
Among the vast array of discriminatory laws was the Land Act of 1913 that spatially segregated people through land dispossession. It amplified the vast canyon of inequality, further shattered the social fabric of communities and radically compromised economic development of the black majority.
It was only after the 1994 democratic elections that the vast majority of citizens could hope for constitutional restitution of their land.
Significant socio-economic advances have been made since 1994, but several challenges need to be overcome as indicated by recent trends. Much more needs to be done. This is particularly true when it comes to land distribution and restitution.
The 2013 state land audit report illustrates why. By 1994 about 87% of the land was owned by whites and only 13% by black people. By 2012 only 7.95 million hectares had been transferred to black owners through land reform. This represented only 7.5% of formerly white-owned land.
Land reform was discussed with understandable intensity during the recent National Policy Conference of the governing African National Congress. Debates centred on whether land should be expropriated without compensation.
It’s within this context that a National Forum was established for dialogues on land reform. The National Forum is made up of a network of organisations that includes three universities, the South African Human Rights Commission and Foundation for Human Rights.
The National Forum focused on whether it was possible to achieve effective land reform through Section 25 of the South African Constitution, which deals with property rights. The National Forum also examined the bureaucratic, legal and constitutional constraints that slow down land redistribution and restitution. It also explored the policy and legislative options necessary to address the complex challenges.
The National Forum concluded that South Africa’s constitution doesn’t stand in the way of land reform. However, it’s clear that political negligence has fuelled undue bureaucracy, mismanagement and corruption, which have severely hampered meaningful land reform. It reached consensus on a 10-point plan for constitutionally accelerated land reform. The hope is that it can help break the long-standing impasse over land, and move the country toward radically inclusive socio-economic growth.
<h2>Accelerating land reform</h2>
Aspects of the 10-point plan include:
<ol>
<li>A human rights approach to land redistribution, grounded in the effective implementation of Section 25 of the Constitution. This could still guarantee a life of dignity, equality and freedom for all citizens.</li>
<li>Existing land reform legislation is not effectively implemented. The Land Claims Commission and Land Claims Court, which were created through the Restitution of Land Rights Act (1994), have not been effective. Unnecessary bureaucratic bungling, significant corruption and limited expert skills have been exacerbated by cadre deployment. This is the practice of appointing party political loyalists to government positions irrespective of ability. In addition, these institutions have yet to be made more accessible and more representative.</li>
<li>The possibility of adopting further laws to accelerate land reform is not being used. This is the case even though Section 25(8) of the Constitution specifically indicates that it can be done.</li>
<li>The possibility of repealing existing legislation that’s inconsistent with or hampering land reform is not being pursued. This should be rectified.</li>
<li>There is a need for national legislation on expropriation. A bill is before Parliament – the Expropriation Bill – but it’s been introduced late and processed without urgency. The possibility of effecting appropriate amendments to the 1975 Expropriation Act should also be considered.</li>
<li>There should be improved communication and coordination between various government departments. Currently, the location of relevant land reform mandates and competencies are spread across several departments. These should be aligned to accelerate the pace of the process.</li>
<li>A draft bill on cultural and spiritual access to land must be developed to enable citizens’ access to cemeteries and related holy sites where their family members are buried.</li>
<li>The courts should pronounce on the meaning of “just and equitable” compensation in Section 25 of the Constitution, to provide for better definition and interpretation of this provision within the context of land reform.</li>
<li>Communal Property Associations, community and traditional leader tensions must be resolved through meaningful engagement. Communication channels must be open, all role-players included and all relevant information made available to every stakeholder. Furthermore, all affected parties must be able to influence the decisions taken. In addition, skills training for officials dealing with land restitution is necessary, whilst an updated land audit is required.</li>
<li>There is need for a Land and Economy Convention, similar to the Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA). This was held to negotiate the country’s peaceful transition to democracy. A role for the new convention would be to address poverty, inequality and unemployment. The aim would be to restore citizens’ dignity, strengthen the economy and advance democracy.</li>
</ol>
The National Forum envisions the 10-point plan being effected within the context of the country’s National Development Plan’s Vision 2030. The plan was drawn up to provide a roadmap for the country to 2030. Its central aims are to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality.
If land reform is realised, South Africa could present a more humane, just, peaceful, prosperous and democratic face to the world.

Op-Ed: A 10-point plan to accelerate orderly land reform in South Africa

Emma Leith | Giant Leap
&nbsp;
South African offices are changing rapidly as the workplace continues to shift from a utilitarian place where you earn your money from 9 to 5 to a much more people friendly, welcoming space where we will spend more than 50% of our time during our working lives.  
 
Emma Leith, Interior Decorator at workplace specialists Giant Leap, shares her top 5 workplace trends in South Africa for 2017: 
 
1 The end of fixed workspace layouts
 
Creating multifunctional community space as well as a diverse selection of areas is becoming increasingly important in order to accommodate constantly changing needs; allowing people to have greater fluidity, mobility and flexibility in the workspace. 
 
“This trend can be seen in the form of modular furniture, work benches and sit-stand desks. Communal areas are becoming an important part of the workplace where people can get together for an informal meeting, to simply enjoy a cup of coffee alone or with a college or to collaborate across teams,” said Leith. 
 
2 The Modern Office: A Home Away From Home
 
The office fit out is becoming increasingly geared towards creating a more lived in and homey feel. 
 
“It’s a home away from home type of scenario” Leith noted.  “This is created by providing cosy, welcoming lounges, communal canteens, and comfy break out areas.”
 
Leith noted that this ultimately provides for a better working environment allowing for greater employee satisfaction. This trend interlinks with point one above as people now have the option to work in more relaxed, comfortable environments. 
 
“Residential furniture is another element that is being used more and more to create that warm, never-want-to-leave-the-office feeling,” Leith added. 
 
3 Private Areas
 
The growing trend towards the open plan office generates the need for private pods/ areas, as the open plan concept does not always provide for the best working environment. 
 
“Private pods are needed whether it be to have a quiet phone call, meeting or place to work with no distractions.  Therefore a combination of spaces is essential in the modern workplace, “ said Leith. 
 
Private areas can be innovatively designed telephone booths, sound proof quiet rooms and sound proof space dividers. Increasingly, various new “pods” are being installed in the workplace in South Africa. 
 
“Secluded pods allow office workers to meditate, smash things or scream and will be commonplace in two years time,”  Leith noted. 
 
4 Themed Meeting Rooms To Portray Company Identity
 
Themed meeting rooms are becoming important areas for companies to portray their identity, values and what they do. 
 
This may be in the form of wallpaper, graphics, furniture, lighting, or colour. 
 
This allows for each meeting room to take on a certain personality, ultimately making them more interesting and inviting spaces to be in, as well as emphasising the firm’s identity.
 
5       Play space 
 
Not just for trendy companies like Google any more or start ups burning through cash. 
 
“Games such as pool and Ping-Pong are also being brought into the communal areas which allow colleagues to interact with other on a more relaxed level as well as help them to relax.
 
“This trend is growing in South Africa is an effective way to break the office stress cycle and rest the brain, “ Leith concluded.

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Stuttafords – “South Africa’s Harrods” closes its doors after 159 years

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Why the Future is Kenya

Nigerian Senate backs plans to reduce power of presidency

Op-Ed: GMOs could be the solution to Africa’s food shortages

Op-Ed: A 10-point plan to accelerate orderly land reform in South Africa

The top 5 SA workplace trends in 2017

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