Being the largest blockchain event for Africa, Africa Blockchain Week 2021 will bring together decision makers, business leaders, investors, community builders, educators and government officials to discuss how blockchain technology benefits Africa’s economic and financial development.



Africa Blockchain Week (ABCW) 2021 takes place virtually from June 28th to July 1st. The core event is the ABCW Virtual Summit which will broadcast high-level content during the days of June 28th, 29th and 30th. The hottest NFT trend is envisioned through a special Africa Artist Showcase of NFTs, including Amrita Sethi, an award-winning multimedia and tech artist.



The event is co-hosted by <a href="https://www.nexchange.com">NexChange Group</a>,a blockchain ecosystem and venture builder, and an African conglomerate <a href="http://maritagroup.com">MARITA Group</a>, with partnership and continuous support from the <a href="https://au.int">African Union</a> and its <a href="https://www.auecosocc.org">Economic, Social and Cultural Council</a>, the intergovernmental organizations that unite countries on the African continent on multiple levels. Ambassador Jalal Chalba, CIDO Director of African UNION Commission, Dr William Carew, Head of Secretariat of African Union ECOSOCC and Botho Seboko, Head of Human Resources, Science and Technology Cluster of African Union ECOSOCC are honorable participants and speakers for Africa Blockchain Week.



Africa Blockchain Week 2021 is covered by <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com">CNBC Africa</a>, and also enjoys partnerships with blockchain focused venture capital investor <a href="https://cvvc.com/about">CVVC</a>, and the leading think tanks in digital economy and fintech industries: <a href="https://www.goldfingr.net">Goldfingr Global Investment Club</a> and <a href="http://www.globalpolicyhouse.com">Global Policy House</a>, an investment, digital economy and blockchain solutions hub.



Moreover, 25+ media partners, 25+ supporting organisations and their communities coming from Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East have endorsed Africa Blockchain Week.



The conference agenda combines both financial and non-financial applications of blockchain that nourish the ecosystem and help build strong ties with global blockchain hubs. From the adoption of Bitcoin and digital currencies market boom, to feasibility studies of central bank digital currencies conducted by African central banks, to blockchain based logistics and supply chains in agriculture and food provenance, to distributed digital identity systems and financial inclusion: a wide range of topics will be covered during the 3-day summit.



Speakers featured on the agenda:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="480" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers-480x800.png" alt="native" class="wp-image-406377" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers-480x800.png 480w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers-180x300.png 180w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers-48x80.png 48w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers-768x1281.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers-921x1536.png 921w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/CNBC-Africa-SM2-25-featured-speakers.png 1203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px" /></figure>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Charles Hoskinson, Founder, Cardano, Co-founder, IOHK</li><li>Mamadou Toure, Founder, CEO, Ubuntu Group, Founder, Africa 2.0 Foundation</li><li>Mance Harmon, CEO, Hedera Hashgraph</li><li>Michelle Chivunga N, CEO, Global Policy House, Advisor, African Union</li><li>Nick Spanos, Bitcoin pioneer, Founder, ZAP</li><li>Michael Sudarkasa, CEO, Africa Business Group</li><li>Brian Behlendorf, Executive Director, Hyperledger, The Linux Foundation</li><li>Hamdene Ezzeddine, State Commissioner at the Tunisian High Administrative Court</li><li>Albert Isola, Minister for Digital and Financial Services, Government of Gibraltar</li><li>Ismail El Hamraoui, President, The Moroccan Youth Government</li><li>Ian Putter, Head of DLT/Blockchain, Standard Bank</li><li>John Kamara, Founder Adalabsafrica, Chairman African Blockchain Centre</li><li>Mohammad Sear, Digital Government &amp; Public Sector Consulting Leader, EY Africa, India, Middle East</li><li>Elaine Bannerman, Founder, Pan-African Tech Foundation</li></ul>



Topics include:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Financial Regulation: From Regulatory Goals to Legal Techniques</li><li>Cross Border Payment Infrastructures and Central Bank Digital Currencies in Africa</li><li>Distributed Digital Identity Using Blockchain Technology</li><li>DLT &amp; Trade Facilitation in Africa</li><li>NFTs: from Hype to Mainstream</li><li>Digital Media Platforms: Content and Strategies for New Generation</li><li>Blockchain Enabled Solutions for Mining &amp; Energy Industry</li><li>Blockchain Application in Agriculture: Agri-specific blockchain &amp; Food Provenance</li><li>Supply Chain Management Solutions x Blockchain</li><li>FinTech &amp; Tokenisation Strategies in Africa and Beyond</li></ul>



Africa Blockchain Week 2021 promotes blockchain technology as an enabler of greater transparency and accountability throughout many industries. The event mission is to educate the audience about benefits of blockchain technology in sectors of business, government, infrastructure providers, financial institutions, etc.



The summit will debate the latest industry trends and future innovations, and provide unparalleled access to visionaries, influencers, and disruptors in the business and tech world, bringing awareness to challenges that can be addressed with blockchain technology solutions.



NexChange Group is a venture builder and media platform specializing in Blockchain, FinTech, HealthTech, AI, and Smart Cities.



Marita Group Holding is a global company focused on:



&#8211; turnkey solutions in real estate development, theme parks, smart cities



&#8211; Renewable energy and waste recovery, hydrogen production, electric mobility



&#8211; sustainable agriculture and sustainable development



&#8211; local mining development of natural resources



&#8211; health, medical products, equipment and supplies



For more information on the registration, speakers, agenda and partnerships, please visit <a href="http://www.africablockchainweek.com">www.africablockchainweek.com</a> or contact: <a href="mailto:info@nexchange.com">info@nexchange.com</a>

CNBC Africa – SM1 – Important partners

Africa Blockchain Week 2021 Showcases Continent’s Digital Transformation Powered by Blockchain Technology

*This analysis was produced by the team at Signal Risk 



Officers from the Central Criminal Investigation Division (CCID) arrested former attorney general Jayarama Valayden from his Les Pailles residence shortly before 02:00 local time on 17 May. Valayden was subsequently questioned at the CCID’s Port Louis headquarters before being released at approximately 09:00 the same day.



According to CCID investigators, Valayden was arrested on two provisional charges related to unlawful assembly and violating the Quarantine Act 2020 (which currently prohibits public gatherings of more than ten people).



These provisional charges stem from a peaceful rally attended by approximately 100 people on 16 May outside the local municipality offices in Port Louis. The gathering had been organised by a local civic organisation, of which Valayden is the spokesperson, to express support for the Palestinian people and to call for peace in the current Middle East conflict. Several other activists, including local lawyer Shahzaad Mungroo, were also temporarily detained in connection with the march.



Dubious detention



Valayden’s detention prompted an immediate backlash from several sectors of society. In a 17 May communique entitled “Objectionable Police Practice”, the Mauritius Bar Association (MBA) criticised the arrest, stating that it saw no urgency or necessity in arresting Valayden at his residence. Instead, the MBA argued that it would have been more appropriate to have called the former attorney general in for questioning during business hours.



Opposition parties have gone further in their criticism, expressing concern that the arrests are indicative of Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth’s allegedly growing tendency to constrain opposition activity and dissent. On the morning of 17 May, Patrick Assirvaden, president of the Labour Party (to which Valayden belongs), stated that the CCID had acted as “the gestapo of Pravind Jugnauth”.



In a somewhat less incendiary tone, leader of the opposition in parliament, Xavier-Luc Duval, wrote to the Commissioner of Police requesting that he seek legal advice from the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) prior to formalising the provisional charges against Valayden. As per Duval, this was necessary due to the “political nature of the arrests”, which could have “ramifications on national unity and law and order”.



For its part, the government has yet to respond directly to these allegations. However, in an 18 May media interview, Prime Minister Jugnauth did condemn the “irresponsible behaviour” of certain individuals who had violated public health regulations. The CCID summoned Valayden for a second round of questioning on 18 May and subsequently announced that it would drop the provisional charges against him and instead refer the matter to the DPP.



Social media suspicion



Valayden’s arrest is the most recent example of what government critics argue is the Jugnauth administration’s inclination to exercise greater control over the domestic political arena.



By way of example, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) were two of 60 organisations to sign on 12 May an open letter seeking to prevent amendments from being made to the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Act or ICT Act.



The proposed amendments were published by the Information and Communication Technologies Authority (ICTA) in a consultation paper issued in April, and are touted as being critical in addressing the “abuse and misuse” of social media in Mauritius. In this regard, the draft legislation proposes the creation of two central government bodies: The National Digital Ethics Committee (NDEC) – to identify illegal and harmful content – and the Technical Enforcement Unit – to implement the technical enforcement measures as directed by the NDEC.



Despite the intended goals of the amendments, activists are concerned that the vague wording of the changes and the broad mandate ascribed to the proposed state agencies would represent a vast



expansion of the government’s control over domestic internet use. Consequently, the signatories of the open letter argue that the ICT Act represents a substantive threat to both privacy and freedom of expression in Mauritius.



Assessment



The administration of Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth has in recent years attempted to expand its executive authority beyond constitutionally established parameters. This has manifested most clearly in diminishing tolerance towards criticism, as well as a growing inclination towards controlling sources of dissent (namely: opposition parties, civil society groups, and independent media organisations). Jugnauth’s more hard-line approach to governance has infringed on political rights and individual freedoms (particularly those of opponents and government critics). By way of example, the 2020 Ibrahim African Governance (IIAG) report found that – although Mauritius still ranks at the top of its list – measures of human rights had deteriorated somewhat over the reporting period. Despite Jugnauth’s apparent attempts to exert greater control over the domestic political arena, the country’s democratic structures remain intact. As such, Mauritius’ typically strong governance institutions (such as an independent judiciary, an active civil society, and a free media landscape) are expected to prevent a more substantive deterioration of the country’s democracy. It is therefore likely to retain its position as one of the region’s most robust democracies for the foreseeable future.



Anti-government sentiment is nevertheless likely to escalate over the short-to-medium term. Historically, Mauritius has experienced few, if any, political protests. This changed following the grounding of an oil tanker off the coast of Mahebourg in 2020. Protests held in the capital, Port Louis, against the government’s handling of the crisis were among the most well-attended in the country’s history. While the oil spill triggered the demonstrations, they were buoyed by wider disaffection with the Jugnauth administration, including concerns over corruption and the dynastic nature of the local political system. Significantly, the shift from a relatively passive to a more active civil society appears to have maintained momentum since the 2020 protests. This is evident in the creation of new civic organisations – such as En Avant Moris, or Ideal Democrate – that focus on both local and national political issues. This reflects a build-up of disaffection with the Jugnauth administration that could result in a significant public backlash if the government is perceived as radically overstepping its democratic mandate (by for example, pushing the current ICT Act through parliament). At present however, indications suggest that Mauritius’ political landscape will remain stable over the short-to-medium term. Accordingly, following his re-election in 2019, Jugnauth and the ruling Alliance Mauricien are not expected to face any substantive political challenges until the next general elections in 2024.



The country will remain constrained in its ability to foster a strong economic rebound in 2021. This much was highlighted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its end-of-mission statement on 07 May, following the completion of its 2021 Article IV Consultation mission with Mauritius. As per the IMF, ongoing pandemic-related headwinds pose a substantial risk to the state’s well-regarded recovery efforts, while growth of roughly 5 percent of GDP is forecast for 2021. This is lower than the 7.9 percent improvement projected by the Bank of Mauritius (BoM) in February, prior to the imposition of the national lockdown and the second wave of coronavirus infections.



Ongoing efforts to support the recovery are likely to add pressure to the state’s fiscal position. As noted by the IMF, a more accommodative fiscal policy will be required to facilitate a recovery amid current economic headwinds. To this end, authorities are expected to continue with current stimulus and social protection measures (including wage guarantees, and income support for the informal sector and self-employed individuals) at least over the short term. The government is also expected to prioritise more forward-looking programmes to uphold broader structural transformation towards a more knowledge-intensive economy. Such programmes would require greater investment in local education and technology capabilities. However, the combination of increased spending and slowing public revenue is likely to lead to increased fiscal pressure over the medium term. Specifically, public debt – currently at 88 percent of GDP in 2021 – is forecast to increase to 92 percent by 2024. Accordingly, the IMF notes that, in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, a return to a more conservative fiscal approach will be required to shore up the necessary buffers to ensure long-term budgetary stability. Outside of the above-mentioned fiscal and macroeconomic concerns, an additional policy focus will relate to the Jugnauth administration’s ongoing efforts to remove itself from the European Union’s so-called “grey-list” of countries whose financial systems could be utilised for money laundering and financing of terrorism.

Signal Risk on Mauritius – Dictatorial drift?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-800x800.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-405147" width="840" height="840" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-800x800.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-150x150.jpg 150w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-768x768.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/John-Manuell-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px" /><figcaption>John Manuell, local division manager for process industries, ABB South Africa</figcaption></figure>



Three major trends &#8211; electrification, digitalisation, and automation – offer South Africa’s mining industry the opportunity to increase safety and productivity, and shape ‘the mine of the future’.



South African mining houses must tap into three transformative trends – electrification, digitalisation and automation &#8211; as they look to drive greater safety, productivity and sustainability in their operations, while extending the life of their mines.



Globally, the mining industry is already seeing a clear shift from diesel to electrification at mining operations. Greater digitalisation is resulting in increased productivity and more sustainable use of resources while lowering input cost, while automation is increasing productivity and changing the way mines work. Together, these three trends are shaping what we call ‘the mine of the future’.



These three trends are critical success factors for the mining industry to continue its modernisation and meet increasingly stringent environmental and sustainability goals while staying globally competitive. They offer real possibilities, which weren’t available previously, to overcome today’s challenges and ensure a bright future for the mining industry.



Electrification gaining traction



As mines step up their efforts to cut costs and increase efficiency, the supply of energy emerges as one of their biggest challenges. On top of the expense of delivering diesel fuel to remote sites, come also costs for the service, repair and replacement of diesel-powered vehicles and machinery.



The move towards electrification of mining operations is well under way in Europe and South America. An obvious starting point for several miners is to invest in fully electric or hybrid-electric vehicles to lower diesel usage and cut costs and pollution. The Swedish company&nbsp;Boliden&nbsp;is to install an additional 3km of trolley line at its Aitik mine after a successful 700m pilot project&nbsp;plus 1.8km at Kevitsa&nbsp;– and says it will reduce its diesel consumption by 5.5 million litres when its investment is complete.



Other miners going this route include Copper Mountain Mining in Canada. ABB will install its haul truck trolley assist infrastructure to help Copper Mountain achieve a reduction in carbon intensity by more than 50 percent in medium-term with a final target of zero by 2035. The installation, which includes engineering, supply and construction management for a DC substation and an overhead catenary system (OCS), combines ABB’s electrification and automation expertise in the mining industry.



 Data: the most valuable resource of all



Data is key for the mine of the future to oversee critical processes and increase the useful life of mines by improving cost efficiency, ore recovery and asset management. Mining companies collect huge amounts of data from their equipment and operations, but this information is hardly used at all to generate insights.



It is crucial for mining companies to have a solid digital strategy in place to ensure well-informed decision-making that will help them maximise energy usage, productivity, reliability and safety, while minimising outages, emissions and costs.



Polish coal miner Bogdanka is developing an Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) solution that will connect various systems, devices and services. This will allow the mine’s engineering team to predict failures, solve machine and equipment failures and reduce equipment downtime, thus reducing high maintenance costs of mining assets. Cost optimisation is particularly important for the company&#8217;s plans to increase production.



The automation imperative



Automation has immense potential to reduce operating costs, improve operations and take people out of harm’s way. Many South African mines are experimenting with technologies like automated drilling and blasting, but they’re only scratching the surface of what’s available.



McKinsey estimates that innovations in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and IIoT have the potential to save the mining sector an estimated $373 billion by 2025 by automating machinery operation, facilitating predictive maintenance, improving traceability, harnessing the power of real-time data and analytics, and providing visibility across the mine-to-market value chain.



The mine of the future isn’t one where robots do all the work. Rather, it’s a connected operation where all assets are linked and smart, decision makers can see exactly what’s happening across their operations on a dashboard, and asset management is proactive.



The biggest challenge facing local mines is to get buy-in for the transformation. Because mining is a major employer in communities across the country, there’s a perception that automation and digitalisation will result in job losses. The reality is, profitable mines don’t reduce headcount. If a mine is profitable, the shareholders are going to want to expand and that creates numerous opportunities downstream.

Technology ready to create SA’s mines of the future

*This analysis was produced by the team at Signal Risk 



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently claimed that it is making progress towards finalising a framework that will help mobilise the resources needed to cover its share of debt relief to Sudan.



The mid-May announcement followed a 26 March meeting between the World Bank and IMF, in which both institutions deemed Sudan eligible for the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.



Sudan’s qualification for the HIPC initiative comes as it seeks relief for its approximately USD 56 billion external debt owed to international financial institutions, official bilateral creditors, and commercial creditors; 85 percent of this is in arrears. In terms of allocation, USD 2.8 billion is owed to the World Bank, IMF and African Development Bank (AfDB); USD 19 billion to countries in the Paris Club creditor collective; USD 21 billion to non-Paris Club members; and the balance to commercial creditors.



Outstanding requirements



Sudan’s pronounced eligibility for the HIPC is only the preliminary phase of the process. Following this, the country and its economic partners must work towards the actual beginning of the process (known as the Decision Point) and then towards the final Completion Point. Reaching the Decision Point requires the fulfilment of at least four conditions:



· A minimum six-month track record of satisfactory performance under the current IMF Staff-Monitored Programme



· Clearance of arrears with multilateral creditors or an agreement on a strategy to clear them



· An agreement on the reforms that are required to reach the Completion Point



· The provision of debt relief assurances by creditors at Completion Point



Once Sudan has reached the Completion Point, it would qualify for debt relief under the HIPC, and for debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) from the World Bank&#8217;s International Development Association (IDA) and the African Development Fund (ADF), together with beyond-HIPC assistance from the IMF. Paris Club creditors are also expected to provide further beyond-HIPC assistance at the Completion Point.



So far, so good



Sudan and its creditors have made significant progress towards reaching the Decision Point since March.



Raving review



The IMF completed its first review of Sudan’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) in early March. The SMP was initialised in September 2020, with the objective of supporting the government’s programme of reforms aimed at stabilising the economy, strengthening social protection, boosting the private sector, and strengthening governance. In this regard, the review concluded that “Sudanese authorities have made tangible progress toward establishing a strong track record of policy and reform implementation”. Substantial reforms undertaken to date include exchange rate unification, removal of fuel subsidies, various tax measures taken as part of the 2021 budget, and an increase in electricity tariffs.



Bridging the gap



Sudan’s creditors and the international community have also responded to Sudan’s need for the clearance of arrears as necessitated by the HIPC.



First, on 23 March, the World Bank announced that it had cleared Sudan’s debt following a USD 1.15 billion bridge loan from the United States government. Then, Sudanese officials stated on 05 May that the country cleared its arrears with the African Development Bank (AfDB) through a USD 425 million bridge loan – provided by the United Kingdom, Sweden and Ireland.



Most recently, French president Emmanuel Macron announced on 17 May that IMF member states have agreed to finance a USD 1.5 billion bridge loan for Sudan to clear its arrears with the IMF. Macron’s



announcement was made during the Paris Conference for Supporting Sudan&#8217;s Transitional Period and the Funding African Economies Summit, held between 17 and 18 May. The French president also expressed that his government would clear USD 5 billion owed to France by Sudan. Shortly after the summit concluded, Sudan’s ministry of foreign affairs also announced that both Germany and Italy had agreed to clear the combined USD 1.5 billion owed to them by Sudan.



Some creditors were not so dovish. During the summit, Kuwait – Sudan&#8217;s largest creditor at USD 9.8 billion – said it would support debt &#8220;resolution&#8221; discussions, while Saudi Arabia – Sudan’s third-largest creditor at USD 4.6 billion – expressed that it would be open to reaching a broad agreement.



The Signal



Sudan is expected to reach the so-called Decision Point for debt relief by the end of June. This much was forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its initial press release regarding Sudan’s eligibility for the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative in March. This timeline appears achievable given that Sudan has already met the majority of conditions outlined by the IMF. Meanwhile, negotiations between the government of Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok and key outstanding creditors, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, are set to commence in the coming weeks. While this will unlikely result in complete debt clearance, it could see frameworks developed to reach this point over the longer term – an alternative to immediate debt clearance. While it is uncertain when Sudan will reach the Completion Point, the debt arears clearing process with the World Bank, IMF and African Development Bank (AfDB) will nonetheless unlock various financing opportunities, particularly for developmental projects and budget support. Indeed, following the clearance of arrears with the World Bank and AfDB, Sudan was approved to receive a USD 207 million grant from the AfDB, USD 215 million in direct budget support, and USD 420 million for a family support programme from the World Bank. The finalisation of the bridge loan with the IMF could see further such disbursements over the medium term.



This support should assist Sudan in achieving its forecast economic rebound in 2021. After experiencing a GDP contraction of 3.6 percent in 2020 – on the back of recessionary conditions in 2018/2019 and the externalities of the coronavirus pandemic – the IMF has projected that Sudan will register a growth rate of 0.4 percent in 2021. This outlook is predicated on increased agriculture, mining and oil exports – amid a global commodity rally – and increased domestic consumption. Equally beneficial is the anticipated uptick in foreign direct investment following the United States’ 14 December 2020 decision to remove Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. This, in addition to HIPC-related processes, should serve to bolster investor sentiment amid improving political stability. While Sudan continues to battle with crippling inflation levels (363 percent in April, year-on-year), the prioritisation of public spending and tighter monetary policies in the coming year should reduce inflation to 129.7 percent in 2021 and then to 57.5 percent by 2022, as per the AfDB.



The clearing of debt should complement the political transition processes. Prime Minister Hamdok announced in November 2020 that the country’s fiscal challenges are impeding the government’s ability to finalise the Transitional Legislative Assembly – which is set to prelude an election in 2022 or 2023 – and implement the political, security, social and economic tenets of the October 2020 peace accord. As per Hamdok, such costs amount to roughly USD 7 billion. The clearing of arrears by creditors – such as the Paris Club, World Bank, IMF and AfDB – and associated servicing costs should free up fiscal space for the transitional government to expedite these processes. Accordingly, the formation of the Transitional Legislative Assembly (with all tenets complete) may be accomplished within the final quarter of 2021 or the first quarter of 2022.

Signal Risk on Sudan – A sigh of relief

The International Monetary Fund is responding to the policy challenges of a fast-changing global economy still reeling from the COVID-19 crisis: it is modernizing the way it provides its regular policy advice to member countries—a process known as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/IMF-Surveillance?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">surveillance</a>.



The regular health check of members’ economies, known as the Article IV consultations, will continue to cover fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and financial issues, which are at the heart of the Fund’s work.



In the future, we will systematically integrate issues that have substantial macroeconomic impact such as inequality, climate change, and digital technology, so as to better deliver on our surveillance mandate.



In the future, we will systematically integrate issues that have substantial macroeconomic impact such as climate change and digital technology, so as to better deliver on our surveillance mandate.



The tailored and targeted policy advice to countries will also help policymakers better prepare for a transforming economic landscape.



A fast-changing world with challenges, new and old



The COVID-19 pandemic is a watershed moment in the still-young 21&nbsp;st&nbsp;century. The pandemic exposed new risks and spillovers, and significant uncertainties about the recovery.



The prospect of transformational change existed even before the pandemic. The world is becoming more interconnected, trends in digitalization and inequality are accelerating, and addressing climate change is now a key priority.



On top of this, policymakers must now also navigate the COVID-19 crisis. First and foremost, by saving lives and livelihoods, then ensuring a sustainable recovery and avoiding economic scarring.



To do this, they must confront questions for which there are often no easy answers including: how should policies be calibrated to maintain adequate support while ensuring stability and sustained growth? How should policymakers respond when facing scant room for maneuver because macroeconomic tools have already been extensively used in the Global Financial Crisis? How can asynchronous and divergent economic recoveries be managed so that those still grappling with the pandemic avoid falling further behind?



Modernizing the Fund’s surveillance framework



To confront these changes, the Fund’s policy advice is evolving, both on substance and in the way the Fund engages with its members.



This new direction is highlighted in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/IMF-Surveillance?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery#:~:text=The%20ongoing%20Comprehensive%20Surveillance%20Review,global%20landscape%20of%202021%2D30.&amp;text=A%20key%20objective%20of%20the,line%20with%20these%20surveillance%20priorities.">2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review</a>, recently approved by the Fund’s Executive Board. The Review—the first since 2014—reflects extensive discussions with member country authorities, external experts, and other stakeholders. It outlines four priorities that will direct the Fund’s surveillance in the future:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/05/18/2021-Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review-Background-Paper-on-The-Surveillance-Priority-460276?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Confronting risks and uncertainties</a>.&nbsp;Policy advice will need to better assess a range of possible outcomes. This will help prepare for worse-than expected scenarios, while also ensuring that policies take advantage of positive surprises and opportunities.</li></ul>



This will require an improved understanding of risk-reward trade-offs, supported by contingency planning and policies geared towards risk management. Such advice can include quantitative considerations–for example, how much insurance to buy against natural disasters–and qualitative aspects, for example, how to take advantage of a growth windfall.



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/05/18/2021-Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review-Background-Paper-on-The-Surveillance-Priority-460297?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Preempting and mitigating spillovers</a>. The pandemic has underscored the scale of global interconnectedness. Events in one country can have sizable effects across the globe. Divergent recoveries can intensify effects of policy normalization. New sources of such spillovers, including from health policies, climate change, and digitalization will shape the future. It will be critical to identify and assess economic and policy spillovers, and to provide policy advice on how to mitigate and pre-empt them. International economic cooperation can also benefit from better dialogue between spillover producers and spillover receivers.</li><li><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/05/18/2021-Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review-Background-Paper-on-The-Surveillance-Priority-460300?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Fostering economic sustainability</a>.&nbsp;A broader understanding of economic sustainability is needed. Economic stability over time is necessary–but not sufficient–to achieve economic sustainability. Trends in demographics, inequality, socio-political developments, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/05/18/2021-Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review-Background-Paper-on-Integrating-Climate-Change-into-460303?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">climate change</a>&nbsp;impact economic stability, and will be discussed more systematically. Not all trends are equally pressing for all countries–country specific circumstances determine if they are macro-critical.</li><li>A unified approach to policy advice.&nbsp;Balancing competing priorities with limited room for maneuver is the key challenge. During the pandemic, member countries simultaneously deployed various policy tools (see chart). This required their careful calibration and an understanding of complementarities and conflicting objectives.</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="768" height="737" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/chart-1-may-24_original.png" alt="" class="wp-image-404827" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/chart-1-may-24_original.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/chart-1-may-24_original-300x288.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px" /></figure>



The relevant issues differ across countries and over time: coordination of fiscal and structural policies, for example, is important for countries facing low productivity. A&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/05/18/2021-Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review-Background-Paper-on-Systemic-Risk-and-460306?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">deeper integration of macro-financial analysis&nbsp;</a>is particularly important where financial risks are building.



For countries dealing with capital flows and seeking to better counter external shocks, the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2020/10/08/Toward-an-Integrated-Policy-Framework-49813?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Integrated Policy Framework</a>&nbsp;(IPF), which outlines the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers, provides an analytical approach to selecting an appropriate policy mix.



Unified policy advice helps decision makers discuss these trade-offs and point to synergies.



<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/05/18/2021-Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review-Modalities-for-Modernizing-Surveillance-460273?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">What it means in practice</a>



Policy dialogue with Fund members will continue to follow requirements endorsed by the IMF’s Executive Board. The Article IV consultations will continue to provide a comprehensive assessment, and will cover fiscal, monetary, external, financial and structural policies.



The reports will be more focused, and better integrate macrofinancial aspects, risk assessment and contingency planning, spillovers, and capacity development. New technologies and enhanced data availability will help to modernize business practices and enhance the relevance of surveillance.



Policy advice will become more granular and country-specific. This is especially so for new and pressing questions, where peer-learning will be needed, such as ways to limit economic scarring or to provide targeted support to firms. Another improvement is ensuring that IMF advice is informed by early identification of cross-cutting policy issues and of lessons from countries’ experiences.



The Comprehensive Surveillance Review is an important milestone, and much work lies ahead to put it into action. Change will be gradual. While the priorities are relevant under a broad range of future outcomes, events are uncertain, and unforeseen shocks will occur. The IMF is a learning institution–being ready to adapt, experiment, and revise is the cornerstone for delivering agile and effective advice to our members.



To learn more visit the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/Comprehensive-Surveillance-Review?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CSR website</a>.



<a href="https://blogs.imf.org/bloggers/fabian-bornhorst-2/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fabian Bornhorst</a>&nbsp;is Deputy Chief in the Macro Policy Division in the IMF&#8217;s Strategy, Policy and Review Department.



<a href="https://blogs.imf.org/bloggers/ceyla-pazarbasioglu/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ceyla Pazarbasioglu</a>&nbsp;is Director of the IMF&#8217;s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.

Fit for Purpose – Adapting IMF Advice to a New Economic Landscape

Global health authorities are looking with alarm at the Covid catastrophe in India, fearing that a similar alignment of circumstances — a stalled vaccine rollout, emerging variants, and a largely poor population — could be replicated in Africa.



John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, recently warned that the Indian catastrophe should put Africa’s health ministers “on high alert” to prepare oxygen supplies, hospital beds and medical staff. India’s health system, especially its ratio of doctors to patients, is far more robust than what exists in much of Africa. Yet India is in crisis, with patients unable to access hospitals and oxygen supplies running out.



According to the official tally, Africa has recorded about 125,000 Covid deaths, fewer than 4 per cent of the global total. However, the true figure is likely to be much higher: South Africa, for example, has 55,000 official deaths, but its excess mortality figures hint at a true total two or three times that.



Fearing a potential crisis ahead, Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organisation’s Africa Director, has called for vaccine equity and for Africa to “knuckle down and make the best of what we have,” yet, across Africa, nervousness over the use of vaccines is rife, where stocks of jabs have been routinely dumped, to the frustration of senior health officials across the continent.



While Africa represents 16% of the world’s population, it&nbsp;<a href="https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/director-general-s-opening-remarks-for-panel-is-africa-ready-to-finance-its-own-vaccine" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">possesses less than 0.1% in the world’s vaccine production</a>&nbsp;capacity.&nbsp; According to the World Health Organization, fewer than 10 vaccine manufacturers are based in Africa.&nbsp; Moreover, the majority of those located on the continent focus on packaging and labelling rather than manufacturing. As a result, Africa is ill-equipped to produce, source and supply doses in the midst of this pandemic.&nbsp; As described by Rwanda President Paul Kagame:&nbsp;<a href="https://fortune.com/2021/05/08/africa-covid-19-vaccine-plants-on-shores/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">“So long as Africa remains dependent on other regions for vaccines, we will always be at the back of the queue whenever there is scarcity.”</a>



Most of the vaccines shipped so far to Africa have been AstraZeneca shots via the global vaccine-sharing scheme Covax and manufactured by the Serum Institute of India. With India suspending exports to meet its own needs, supply has come to an abrupt halt.



While Ghana, Rwanda and Senegal have sped through their Covax supplies, many countries have only managed to administer only a fraction of what is needed. Malawi has said it&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/african-countries-urged-use-vaccines-quickly-after-expiry-confusion-2021-04-22/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">plans to destroy more than 16,000 doses of AstraZeneca&#8217;s vaccine</a>&nbsp;manufactured by the Serum Institute of India because the shots were not administered before the April 13 expiry date on the packaging. Meanwhile, South Sudan has set aside 59,000 doses supplied by the African Union and is not using them because of the same expiry issue.



Rather than sitting on the side-lines, public health bodies like the WHO should be on the ground educating, supporting, and encouraging people to take up the vaccine. Any delays now could have serious ramifications for public health in the future and the economic wellbeing of the continent.&nbsp; A recent study by the World Bank indicates that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/director-general-s-opening-remarks-for-panel-is-africa-ready-to-finance-its-own-vaccine" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">for every month that vaccines are delayed in reaching the African continent, 13.8 billion US dollars are lost in GDP</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The higher the number of Covid cases a country has, the more likely it is that new variants will emerge. That is because every single infection gives the virus a chance to evolve, and a major concern is that mutations could arise that render vaccines ineffective.



What this whole demonstrates is that public health bodies like the World Health Organisation have yet again fallen asleep at the wheel, just like they did in their response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa from 2014-16, which was the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the virus was first discovered in 1976.



Even an independent panel set up by the WHO recently reported that the pandemic was preventable, and that the combined response of the WHO and global governments was a &#8220;toxic cocktail&#8221;.



<a href="https://theindependentpanel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COVID-19-Make-it-the-Last-Pandemic_final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Covid-19: Make it the Last Pandemic</a>, was compiled by the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response. The panel argued that the WHO&#8217;s Emergency Committee should have declared the outbreak in China an international emergency a week earlier than it did. Seemingly pushing the blame, the panel said the month following the WHO&#8217;s declaration was &#8220;lost&#8221; as countries failed to take appropriate measures to halt the spread of the virus.



In recent decades, the WHO has expanded its remit far beyond communicable diseases and health emergencies. It now recommends legislative and regulatory interventions designed to combat non-communicable ‘lifestyle’ diseases.



Some of this work is easily justifiable, such as improving childbirth outcomes in poor societies. Much of it, however, is rooted in the desire to legislate health.



Despite owing its existence to the charitable largesse of benefactor member countries, what this demonstrates is that by no longer sticking to communicable diseases and health emergencies, the WHO has become overly political. A global organisation that can help the less fortunate is not in itself a bad idea, but we must question whether this is what we have got right now. More crucially, has the WHO lost sight of its original mandate? The spread of Ebola in West Africa should have been the wakeup call for the WHO, but its refusal to divert its focus from diets, smoking, drinking and the speed of electronic scooters, means that Covid will possibly kill more people than booze and burgers combined.



The WHO must return to the successes of the past, focusing on the near eradication of diseases like measles and polio, as well as investing in healthcare capacity. We will all be better served if the public health work of the WHO is free of politicization. Africa, now more than ever, deserves better.



Dr. Kristina M. L. Acri, née Lybecker, is an associate professor of economics at Colorado College and a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute.

India’s response to the COVID pandemic should send a warning to the African continent

There’s a saying that goes: ‘you went to bed as a services company and woke up as a data company’. This has never been truer than today. Most African companies have transformed from physical to digital businesses in the past 15 months – and they’re going to stay that way.



Quite simply, this is the way the world is going to work in the future. Data and digital is the default business status of the world. Of course, this brings with it a new-found responsibility – and increasingly, a legal obligation – to protect that data.



More and more, we’re seeing acronyms like GDPR, CCPA, LGPD and PIPEDA becoming part of leadership conversations. Closer to home, South Africa’s Protection of Personal Information Act (POPIA) takes effect on 1 July. They’re all part of a growing wave of regulations around the world that govern the way businesses handle consumer personal information.



Let’s be frank: for many companies, these regulations are a royal pain. A year before GDPR came into force in Europe in 2018, a study by AIIM found that more than 50% of businesses knew little or nothing about GDPR. More recently, TrustArc found that more than one in four companies (27%) hadn’t even started making their organisations GDPR-compliant, more than two years after the deadline had passed.



And yes, getting data-compliant may feel onerous. But that’s the cost of doing business in 2021 and beyond. Fact is, consumers will choose you over other competitors based on trust: that is, how you protect their data, and show them that you put them first. In a world that’s digital and filled with data, your customers want to shop anytime, anywhere. They will look at businesses and ask: are you making me feel safe in a digital world?



As business leaders, it’s incumbent on us to ask ourselves what it means to us as businesses to protect the individual’s right to privacy, and how we deal with our customers’ information. How we gather it. How we use it. Most importantly, how we protect it.



But here’s the thing. If you see privacy regulations as nothing but a regulatory burden, you’re missing a massive opportunity to use your data investments to set your company up for long-term digital success. Frankly, it’s an incredibly exciting opportunity for local businesses to overhaul not only their data policies, but their entire approach to data security, and go beyond mere compliance to create a source of trust and advantage with their customers.



For me, getting compliant has three major benefits that will propel your company along a digital transformation journey.



It puts your customer at the centre of your business



Creating a robust set of guidelines, checks and balances doesn’t just help your business to secure data: it also makes the handling of data easier, and helps you get closer to the mythical ‘single view of the customer’. Once that’s in place, you not only understand your customers better, but are able to serve them offers that talk directly to their needs.



It builds consumer trust



Trust in your products, services and brand is a key market differentiator. Your customers must know they can trust you implicitly with their data; that their long-term best interests are important to you, beyond a single transaction or engagement.



It forces you to get your data management strategy right



Strong data governance is the foundation of providing the data visibility and oversight needed for regulatory compliance. It helps assess and prioritise data risks, and manages the current state of your data, and its evolving future state. With the right data strategy and technology in place, it’s possible to achieve compliance – and digitally transform – using your current architecture and data assets as a base.



Getting this right starts with how we show up as leaders. How do we think about data will shape the way we drive the necessary education, culture and training that’s needed to make our people aware of the critical role of data in the success of our businesses. Effectively, we have become the custodians of a new way of doing business. That’s a responsibility we simply dare not shirk.



Is your business ready for POPIA, or any other data privacy regulations? What lessons can you share around organising for this new way of engaging consumers? How have you incorporated trust into your business and go-to-market strategy?



ENDS

Lee Naik 28.08.2020

Data Compliance: A Blessing,  Not a Curse

It would be no surprise if the SARB Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members unanimously decide to leave the Bank’s repo rate unchanged at 3.5% per annum this week. But, of equal importance will be the tone of the Bank’s statement as market participants look for clues as to the likely future path of the Bank’s policy interest rate.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The real repo rate is currently negative and monetary policy is accommodative. But, growth is lifting, the negative output gap (surplus capacity in the economy) is narrowing, and higher consumer price inflation of close to 4.5% is forecast for 2022. If expectations for the economy over the next twelve months are realised, the Bank is likely to shift towards a less accommodative stance as we head into 2022.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Indeed, the implied policy rate path of the Bank’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) shows the repo rate at 4.00% at the end of 2021 (with increases of 25bp each in the second and fourth quarters of this year) and 4.95% at the end 2022.&nbsp;&nbsp;



But, the MPC members are only guided, not bound, by the QPM’s implied policy rate path. And, considering current information, the interest rate hiking cycle seems likely to be “delayed”, perhaps to next year.&nbsp; &nbsp;



Admittedly there are risks, not least of which is increasing US inflation and what this may imply for the medium-term US monetary policy outlook. At present, the US Federal Open Market Committee is comfortable with the view that the nascent bounce in inflation is temporary. Suppose that changes and expectations of the timing of US monetary policy tightening are brought forward. In that case, the likely negative impact on global financial conditions can be expected to permeate through to South African interest rate expectations. However, assuming global supply disruptions, including supply-chain blockages, begin to dissipate as pandemic related economic restrictions ease and global trade increases, it seems reasonable to expect lower US inflation in 2022.&nbsp; &nbsp;



And, locally, even though an export commodity price boom has boosted local income and purchasing power, the economic recovery is yet to be firmly established. One of the missing ingredients from the recipe for a sustained domestic business cycle upswing is firm credit extension. There is modest growth in household credit extension, reflecting instalment sales and mortgage advances. However, credit extended to corporates is decidedly weak. As a result, total seasonally adjusted credit extended to the private sector was just 1.5% higher in March 2021, compared with the average level for the three months prior&nbsp;to March 2020. Total seasonally adjusted loans and advances (excluding investments and bills) increased by a mere 0.2% over the same period.&nbsp;&nbsp;



By cutting interest rates, the monetary policy aims, amongst other objectives, to encourage borrowing and support domestic demand. But, currently, credit extension is far from robust, and the economy is a long way from overheating.&nbsp;



Another key consideration is inflation expectations, which have remained well anchored. The inflation expectations survey of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), which the SARB MPC considers in its deliberations, has shown inflation expectations for the medium term are anchored just below the mid-point of the Bank’s inflation target range for 2022 and 2023.&nbsp;



In addition, South Africa is a small, open economy, and the Rand plays a significant role in inflation outcomes and expectations. Accordingly, the marked appreciation of the currency over the past year should go some way towards containing inflation.&nbsp;



Ultimately, forecasting the future is fraught with risk, but while these conditions persist, the Bank can afford to bide its time.&nbsp;

Arthur Kamp, chief economist, Sanlam Investments

SARB MPC: No Rush

Mr. President,&nbsp;



I am very pleased to join you and everyone for today’s important discussion on financing African economies. Africa is full of investment opportunities that can attract private enterprises and investors from around the world. The World Bank Group is using all possible resources, financing tools, and dedicated staff across the continent to improve African lives and business prospects.



During the earlier session, I listened carefully to the challenges of vaccine access, inequality, and debt. I underscore the urgency in helping Africa overcome these crises.&nbsp;It’s clear that some countries will soon have vaccine supplies that vastly exceed demand, and I’ve repeatedly urged them to release the excess to countries that have delivery programs in place. We have Board-approved financing operations in many African countries to obtain safe doses and to administer them quickly and fairly as soon as the producer countries, COVAX, or manufacturers are ready.



Over the past decade, the World Bank Group has invested $200 billion in Africa, and over just the next five years,&nbsp;we intend to invest and mobilize another $150 billion to support the continent’s development.&nbsp;A large portion of this will be through grants and long-term, zero interest-rate loans from IDA, which continues to provide strong positive net flows to Africa.&nbsp;I want to thank you all for your strong support for the IDA20 replenishment.



Debt sustainability and transparency will also be vital in attracting new financing and investment. We supported the G20’s DSSI deferrals, although participation by major creditors has been only partial and continues to allow large profits to be withdrawn from Africa even during the crisis, with no prospect of the debt cancellations that many advocated today.



We are strongly supporting the IMF and G20 in implementing the G20’s Common Framework for debt reduction. We encourage all creditors, especially private creditors, to make Chad’s debt treatment under the Common Framework a success in terms of debt reduction and durable sustainability. In this context, IDA expects to remain the largest provider of positive net flows in Chad over the next decade, strengthening Chad’s ability to sustain a moderate debt burden if that can be achieved. However, as in other African countries, Chad’s debt sustainability is being challenged by the very limited progress on their debt reduction and transparency.&nbsp;



As Axel discussed at yesterday’s Sudan summit, progress on debt there has been pivotal, along with the unification of the exchange rate, which proved to be immediately beneficial to the people of Sudan. We can now work together toward the HIPC Decision Point for Sudan in June.



Africa needs large inflows of long-term resources. In addition to IDA, another important part of our support to Africa will be mobilization of the private sector, either directly through IFC and MIGA mobilizations or indirectly through the mobilization of funding by IDA and IBRD on capital markets.



IFC’s Managing Director and Executive Vice President, Makhtar Diop, will provide more details on our private sector mobilization efforts in a few moments, and I would like to highlight initiatives that President Macron and I discussed recently.



First, closing the infrastructure gap and improving access to low-carbon electricity. Second, IFC has doubled our trade finance. To continue this effort, we’re announcing that IFC and MIGA are about to launch a joint trade finance initiative in selected African countries. Third, we’re working to expand alternative small-business finance. And fourth, to support agribusiness activities, we’re proposing a 3-year pilot for a user-friendly blended finance facility.



Thank you, President Macron.

WORLD BANK COMMITS $150 BN TO AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="429" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ABCW2021_8-820x429.png" alt="" class="wp-image-403676" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ABCW2021_8-820x429.png 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ABCW2021_8-300x157.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ABCW2021_8-768x402.png 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ABCW2021_8.png 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



The inaugural Africa Blockchain Week will launch from June 28th to July 1st 2021. NexChange Group, a blockchain ecosystem and venture builder and MARITA Group, an African conglomerate will combine forces to co-host this Virtual Summit. The event will feature key industry players and decision-makers contributing to regulation, application, investment and education across many African countries.



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote>Africa is the next big move for blockchain. We see not just opportunities in the payment space and financial inclusion, but we see significant institutional involvement.<cite>Juwan Lee, Chairman of NexChange Group</cite></blockquote></figure>







The new reality has proven technology to be a bridge to a better future. Strong ties between African countries, like the cooperation South-South, encouraged by HRH Mohammed VI go beyond just politics. New economic bridges ensure that Africa is able to bypass certain steps on a technological stair, positioning itself ahead of the global curve. Described by the World Bank and called leapfrogging, it relies strongly on enhanced technologies including blockchain.



Rahhal Boulgoute, Chairman of Marita Group: “Blockchain will revolutionize Africa and provide opportunities for financial inclusion. It is important that we expose blockchain technology in Africa.”



The impact is seen on Africa&#8217;s financial map. Over the last years, digital banking and mobile payments have proven to be a real-life case study for millions of users, making people&#8217;s financial lives better, ensuring inclusion, and changing the game for the unbanked. Banks, enterprises, and entrepreneurs are changing the continent’s destiny, shaping the investment landscape.



This event backs the efforts of the African regulators to adopt the required regulations to embrace blockchain and become a main global player in the technologies shaping the future. The ambition of the Co-hosts is to make Africa Blockchain Week the key platform for dialogue and networking between all stakeholders in blockchain to transform it into a reality in Africa.



NexChange Group is a venture builder and media platform specializing in Blockchain, FinTech, HealthTech, AI, and Smart Cities.



Marita Group Holding is a global company focused on:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>turnkey solutions in real estate development, theme parks, smart cities</li><li>Renewable energy and waste recovery, hydrogen production, electric mobility</li><li>sustainable agriculture and sustainable development</li><li>local mining development of natural resources</li><li>health, medical products, equipment and supplies</li></ul>



For more information, please visit <a href="http://www.africablockchainweek.com/">www.africablockchainweek.com </a>or contact: info<a href="mailto:info@nexchange.com">@nexchange.com</a>

ABCW2021_8

NexChange Group and Marita Group Co-Host Africa Blockchain Week Virtual Summit to Showcase Continent’s Technological Leapfrog

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="640" height="729" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Dr.-Moeti.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-403654" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Dr.-Moeti.jpg 640w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Dr.-Moeti-263x300.jpg 263w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><figcaption>Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, Regional Director, WHO-AFRO</figcaption></figure>



The COVID-19 pandemic stands as a stark reminder of how quickly infectious diseases can spread without vaccines, and the damage they can cause to health, economic and social systems. Although the contributions to our collective wellbeing are rarely acknowledged beyond global health circles, vaccines save millions of lives every year and are one of the world’s most successful health interventions. Yet there are nearly <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2021/04/24/default-calendar/world-immunization-week-2021">20 million children</a> in the world today who are not getting the vaccines they need – and many more are at risk of missing out on immunization because of the COVID-19 pandemic.



In the year since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, access to critical health programs including immunization have been stalled. Before the pandemic 1 in 5 children in Africa remained unprotected from dangerous diseases like measles, meningitis and yellow fever. Last year, routine immunization services in <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/news/who-and-experts-call-urgent-action-safely-resume-immunization-services-amid-covid-19-pandemic">at least 15 countries</a> in Africa were interrupted, which resulted in outbreaks of measles, cholera, yellow fever and Ebola in Africa. Many countries have resumed routine immunization programmes and organized immunization catch-up campaigns since then, but we expect immunization coverage rates to fall by 2-3% this year.



Immunization has been one of the most powerful tools that has improved child survival on the continent. In the last couple of decades, immunization progress has had a huge impact on diseases like cervical cancer, hepatitis, Ebola and meningitis A. In August 2020, Africa was declared <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/25-08-2020-global-polio-eradication-initiative-applauds-who-african-region-for-wild-polio-free-certification">wild polio-free</a>, marking the second disease to be eradicated from the Region since the elimination of smallpox 40 years ago. And new vaccines have been rolled out across the region to protect against diseases such as pneumonia, rotavirus, and more. These victories stand as a powerful testament to the value of vaccines – value we cannot afford to lose.



This year’s African Vaccination Week (24-30 April), whose theme is ‘Vaccines Bring Us Closer”, serves as an opportunity to reflect on the gains we have made toward creating a world where the most vulnerable among us are protected; a world where diseases like wild polio virus are no longer a danger; where all African children can grow up without the threat of vaccine-preventable diseases and can live fuller and longer lives.



COVID-19 may have temporarily set us back, but we must still aspire for this world. We have a chance to rebuild what has been shattered, and to do so in a way that assures current and future generations of a life free of vaccine-preventable diseases and avoidable death and disability.



By increasing access to routine immunization, countries can improve health outcomes and advance efforts to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC). They also stand to benefit from the ripple effects of immunization, which is estimated to deliver a return of USD44 in <a href="https://www.unicef.org/immunization">economic benefits</a> for every USD1 spent on childhood immunizations globally, making it one of the most effective and cost-effective public health tools at our disposal.



When African Heads of State endorsed the Addis Declaration on Immunization (ADI) in January 2017, they set the foundation for future immunization programs aimed at ensuring that everyone in Africa – regardless of who they are or where they live – receives the full benefits of immunization. Today, this commitment is more important than it has ever been before.



Every country must recommit to these promises and act boldly, and with urgency, if we are to succeed. Leaders must prioritise financial resources toward routine immunization drives; invest in health care systems and professionals that can deliver vaccines to everyone, everywhere; empower local leaders and build trust around vaccines. They must also advance vaccine research and development, manufacturing, and distribution on the continent.



This is a crucial moment for renewed political momentum to enable countries to build their immunization systems equitably, and for citizens to hold their leaders accountable. This will protect millions from preventable disease and is a critical component of rebuilding health systems for stronger and healthier societies, both during and after COVID-19.



We cannot afford to lose any more lives to vaccine-preventable diseases, not when we have the power to save lives through immunization.

Dr.-Moeti…

Vaccines Bring Us Closer to a Fairer World

25 April 2021, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – World Malaria Day 2021 comes at a time when healthcare systems in Africa bear the anomalous weight of the coronavirus pandemic. African Union (AU) Member States have maintained their focus in the fight against malaria even as the pandemic continues to test the limits of health infrastructure at the country level. I take the opportunity to recognise and appreciate all AU Member States for ensuring that comprehensive approaches like education, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment &#8211; that have been proven to have tangible results in the fight against malaria &#8211; have been sustained during the pandemic.



Today, the African Union Commission (AUC) joins the world to celebrate the seven million lives saved, and over one billion malaria cases averted through life-saving mosquito nets, among other interventions. The Commission,as taken note of this years theme , &#8220;Zero Malaria &#8211; Draw the Line Against Malaria,&#8221; with the fullest commitment that all must work together to end malaria by 2030. As a continent, we celebrate with great honour and pride the AU Member States that have been certified malaria-free. I encourage these Member States to lead continental knowledge-sharing initiatives so that best elimination practices are exchanged andscaled-up.



Africa is making headway in defeating malaria through strong political commitment, increased funding, and innovations devised to improve malaria prevention and control. Most of the achievements have been realized through the Zero Malaria Starts With Me



Campaign implemented by the Commission in partnership with the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA) and Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership to End Malaria. To date, nineteen(19) AU Member States have rolled out the Campaign, seven (7) of which launched in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. While more Member States are working towards launching the Campaign, the Commission welcomes the collaborative effort to urge Africa leaders to step up and be a part of the zero-malaria movement.



The Zero Malaria Starts With Me Campaign is transforming the continent&#8217;s malaria response and inspiring global action. This Campaign&#8217;s advancement and impact have demonstrated AU Member States&#8217; dedication to reach the targets set in the Africa Health Strategy and the Catalytic Framework to End AIDS, TB, and. Eliminate Malaria in Africa by 2030. The Campaign&#8217;s focus is to empower the youth&#8217;s involvement in the malaria response. The leadership of youth in Africa is crucial as young people account for 75% of the continent&#8217;s population. Youth are the driving force of the continent. I commend H.E Uhuru Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya, for launching the Digital Youth Malaria Army initiative. With the support of ALMA, the work of the Army is shaped by strategic guidance from the ALMA Youth Advisory Council, consisting of representatives from all regions in Africa. Partners also have opportunities through which youth can be empowered for leadership in the fight against malaria, including the RBM Digital Youth Workstream and Draw the Line against Malaria Youth Champions. I encourage Africa&#8217;s youth to join these initiatives to ensure their communities and peers&#8217; voices are heard.



In conclusion, I emphasize on the critical role of multisectoral partnerships in achieving significant strides towards the shared goal of malaria elimination. We need more partnerships and resources to innovate and improve surveillance programs. As we commemorate World Malaria Day 2021, I call on frontline health workers , partners, and leaders worldwide and in Africa to share experiences and reflections on efforts and opportunities to reach the target of zero malaria.



I reiterate that ending malaria&#8217;s scourge will have a long-term, transformative impact and save millions of lives. The Commission will continue to support the AU Member States to Draw the Line Against Malaria.



#ZeroMalariaStartWithMe.

Statement by H.E. Amira Elfadil Mohamed – Commissioner for Health, Humanitarian Affairs and Social Development, AUC on World Malaria Day

*This analysis was produced by the team at Signal Risk 



On 02 April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a joint three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Kenya. Valued at USD 2.34 billion, the joint facility is intended to support the next phase of Kenya’s public health and economic response to the coronavirus pandemic and its externalities.



Given the apparent deficiencies in Kenya’s financial and structural conditions, both Kenya and the IMF have agreed on numerous reform-oriented conditionalities. These include broadening the tax base, freezing public sector recruitment, reassessing and restructuring state-owned enterprise debt, strengthening public and general financial regulation (including anti-corruption and anti-money laundering), and reviewing the statutory debt ceiling. In terms of specified targets, the government has committed to maintaining the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios at 8.7 and 70.4 percent, respectively, in 2021.



Mixed reception



Reception of Kenya’s new programme has been mixed.



Of particular concern has been Kenya’s borrowing plans. As per the IMF, Kenya plans to borrow up to USD 12.4 billion from foreign sources between April 2021 and June 2022. This includes USD 7.3 billion in Eurobonds, USD 4.8 billion in concessional loans, and USD 282 million in semi-concessional loans. Roughly USD 2.3 billion of the acquired funds will be spent on infrastructure projects, and USD 5 billion will be allocated towards refinancing a Eurobond maturing in 2024 and other syndicated loans. All things being equal, the total borrowing over the 14-month period is forecast to amount to between 6 and 7 percent of GDP.



There are further concerns – as expressed in a petition to cancel the loan, signed by 160,000 citizens – that the latest IMF facility will prompt an increase in taxes for purposes of reducing the deficit. Of particular contention is the possibility of an upward adjustment of the VAT rate on fuel from the current 8 percent, to 16 percent. This, according to civilian, civil society and labour interests could accelerate the ongoing hike in the price of the commodity – which has prompted some Kenyans to resort to cheaper purchases from Tanzania and Uganda – and lead to a wage-price spiral that would negatively impact consumers and producers. A final concern by the general public relates to the potential for the IMF funds to be lost to corruption.



Rifts upon rifts



The administration of President Uhuru Kenyatta has yet to respond to the grievances surrounding the IMF programme. This is likely due to Kenyatta’s pre-occupation with the ongoing fallout with his deputy, William Ruto.



The dispute between Kenyatta and Ruto reached a crescendo in recent weeks, as the president intensified his efforts to weaken the deputy and his allies. First, on 12 February, Kenyatta openly castigated Ruto and insinuated that he should resign – the first such suggestion since the rift between the duo became clear roughly two years ago. Addressing a crowd in the capital, Nairobi, Kenyatta stated that “you can’t be speaking of the failures of a government where you serve while at the same time outlining what…we have achieved as a government. You better resign”. Although Kenyatta did not mention Ruto by name, it was clear given the fractious relationship between the president and his deputy that he was referring to Ruto. A day later, Ruto confirmed these suspicions when he stated in the town of Isiolo that he will not resign and that there is no contest between him and Kenyatta.



Days later, on 18 February, Kenyatta undertook a cabinet reshuffle that saw eight members of the opposition ODM of Raila Odinga appointed to executive positions. The new appointments primarily affect the positions of chief administrative secretary and principal secretary in multiple portfolios, including finance, labour, and trade. Previous occupants – many of whom were allied to Ruto – were demoted.



Ruto’s misfortunes were somewhat compounded by the performance of the UDA party – a new political entity established by his allies – during municipal by-elections that were held on 05 March. The pro-Ruto formation claimed a single seat from the available seven, despite rigorous campaigning by the deputy. The remaining six were shared by a plurality of parties including Jubilee, the ODM, ANC and Ford Kenya.



The Signal



Kenya’s uptake of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme is seen as pragmatic, and does not necessarily signal a tendency towards prudence. For one, IMF endorsement will likely ensure that Kenya acquires its planned USD 12.4 debt haul at relatively favourable terms. This, as noted, will be used to refinance more strenuous Eurobond and syndicated loans, and thereby ease the country’s repayment burden. Additionally, the availability of USD 2.34 billion in financing from the IMF should ease potential fiscal, balance of payments and general liquidity concerns. This includes potential funding gaps that may arise due to vaccine procurement and potential corrosion of foreign reserves due to a deteriorating trade balance. Furthermore, the availing of funds to finance President Kenyatta’s Big Four infrastructure agenda could win crucial political capital for the statesman and his allies if the projects are indeed delivered.



The Kenyatta administration will be selective in its choice of mechanisms to satisfy conditionalities associated with the joint facility, especially at such a politically sensitive period. A particular mechanism that the government will likely shy away from is an uptick in value-added tax (VAT) on fuel as a means to contain the deficit. In 2018, Kenyatta was reluctant to impose the full 16 percent VAT on fuel that was recommended at the time by the IMF, largely due to pressure from the political opposition, the public, and trade unions. Should Kenyatta gesture towards any such increase in VAT – especially at a time when public welfare has been corroded by coronavirus-related factors – it could trigger a wave of socio-economic unrest. There is also a risk that grievances associated with a VAT hike could be exploited by Kenyatta’s rivals ahead of the 2022 elections. Instead of an uptick in VAT, the Kenyatta administration may prioritise tax measures that have the lowest risk of socio-economic and political backlash, such as small levies on mobile transactions.



The absence of severe austerity should maintain the advantage held by Kenyatta and his allies in the ongoing political power play. Not only has the president consolidated his grip on governing institutions in Kenya by flushing out Deputy President Ruto’s allies, but the popularity that Kenyatta and his allies wield was affirmed by the recent by-election outcomes. Due to the fact that Ruto was voted in on the same ticket as Kenyatta, the president cannot unilaterally fire Ruto. Instead, his removal requires a formal impeachment process. Such a process is loosely ongoing, and is based on corruption allegations involving Ruto; however, it has yet to gain any significant traction, with no motion filed in parliament as yet. Should this be the case, it could trigger countrywide anti-government demonstrations by Ruto allies and a push within government to obstruct such a motion.

Signal Risk on Kenya – Funds and factionalism

*This analysis was produced by the team at Signal Risk 



On 18 March, the National Assembly opened debate over a series of constitutional amendments. The Constitutional Review Proposal under parliamentary consideration contains 40 proposed modifications. It is the first revision of Angola’s legal framework since the current constitution was adopted in 2010.



Reforms and revisions



The ruling MPLA party has presented the amendments as part of the current administration’s much vaunted reform agenda, implemented after President Joao Lourenco replaced Jose Eduardo dos Santos as head of state and MPLA leader in 2017.



The bulk of the suggested constitutional modifications are, in fact, largely uncontroversial. Many proposed alterations – including changes that would cement the independence of the central bank and enhance parliamentary oversight of the executive –&nbsp;appear to have support within the MPLA and opposition UNITA and CASA-CE parties. Other amendments – such as those extending voting rights to Angolans in the diaspora –&nbsp;have long been called for by opposition parties.



An exercise in cosmetics?



Nonetheless, the constitutional review has drawn substantial criticism from opposition and civil society groups. Most notably, the opposition argues that the proposed changes to the country’s judicial framework are not extensive enough. Specifically, critics claim that the incremental legal reforms do not alter the unrivalled authority wielded by the president and the MPLA. Among the more fundamental changes called for by the opposition is a revision to the current format of general elections (in which the president is not directly elected, but appointed by the party that secures the most votes in the legislature).



A civil society group calling itself the “Youth for Municipalities Movement” expressed similarly critical sentiments about Angola’s electoral system at a Luanda press conference on 17 March. The group called on the Lourenco administration to commit to holding the frequently delayed municipal elections in 2021. The municipal ballot – which is a key pillar of the move towards decentralising political power in Angola –&nbsp;had been scheduled for the latter half of 2020, but was postponed in September of that year due to the domestic coronavirus outbreak. Authorities have yet to reschedule the vote, leading opposition groups to accuse the MPLA of deliberately delaying the election in order to maintain the ruling party’s dominant position at all levels of government.



Another prominent criticism levelled against the proposed constitutional alterations relates to the top-down nature of the review process. Specifically, civic organisations have been highly critical of the fact that the amendments were formulated by cabinet without a formal consultation process.



The Signal



On the whole, the constitutional amendments put forward by the Lourenco administration represent a positive development for Angola’s democratic system. The majority of the proposed edits have support across the political spectrum and are generally expected to strengthen the country’s governance structure.



However, as pointed out by UNITA, the selective and incremental nature of the suggested changes does serve a particular political logic for the MPLA. Namely, the ruling party is attempting to bolster its reformist image, while ensuring that it retains its dominant position in the executive and legislature. UNITA is expected to boycott the final vote of the constitutional review process, just as it did with the initial parliamentary vote, but the MPLA should still successfully pass the review bill into law, due to its legislative majority and the support of smaller opposition parties.



Opposition and civil society groups are likely to continue to push for broader democratic reforms. Foremost among these are municipal elections, which have not been specifically provided for in the draft constitutional reforms. The most concrete allowance made in this regard was to abandon the MPLA’s previous commitment to the principle of “gradualism”, by which preparations for municipal elections would be done incrementally over a period ending in 2035. Aside from this, no further effort has been made to provide a date on which the polls may be held or to resolve issues relating to the legal standing and administrative structure of the municipalities.



While the opposition is likely to push for the local elections to be held in the current year, the MPLA may attempt to push them further out and hold the polls alongside the general elections scheduled for 2022. Although this is likely to become a point of contention among opposition parties, it is unlikely to affect overall political stability due to the MPLA’s dominant political position.



Meanwhile, the application of Lourenco’s more extensive reform agenda is likely to be selective ahead of the 2022 national elections. Although an exact date has yet to be set, the national polls are likely to take place in August 2022. Both the ruling and opposition parties will have begun to strategise for the upcoming ballot.



Following the expected passage of the constitutional reform bill through parliament, the Lourenco administration is not expected to pursue other major reforms ahead of the vote. The government will, however, continue with existing reform efforts that it deems politically advantageous.



To this end, Lourenco is expected to prioritise anti-corruption investigations into loyalists of the former dos Santos regime, and remain reluctant to pursue corruption allegations levelled at his supporters and political allies. Notably, Lourenco’s anti-corruption drive is not purely partisan; there is substantial evidence and multiple active cases which suggest that the graft perpetrated by dos Santos and his inner circle was extensive.

texture-sackcloth-with-image-angola-flag_158023-1119

Signal Risk on Angola – Changes to the charter

Lagos, 13 April 2021.&nbsp;Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) Plc, a leading integrated market infrastructure Group in Africa, has announced the launch of its new corporate brand identity and website today, 13 April 2021.



The launch of the new identity follows the demutualisation of The Nigerian Stock Exchange and the resulting creation of the non-operating holding company NGX Group Plc and its subsidiaries: Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, the operating exchange; NGX Regulation (NGX RegCo) Limited, the independent regulatory arm of the Exchange; and NGX Real Estate (NGX RelCo) Limited, the real estate company.



The NGX brand identity follows a monolithic brand architecture, which will facilitate the formation of any new subsidiary by leveraging existing brand equity.&nbsp;The identity is inspired by the arrows of the stock exchange ticker tape as well as monetary exchange between a buyer and seller. These arrows are stylised to form an ‘N’ and denote the act of collaboration.



Speaking on the development, the Group Chief Executive Officer, NGX Group, Mr. Oscar N. Onyema, OON stated, “We are very excited about the launch of our new brand identity and website at this pivotal time in our history. Influenced by the dynamism and resilience of our market in both good and challenging times, our new identity, which builds on our rich heritage, reflects who we are today, our ambitions for the future, and our resolve to deliver superior value to our stakeholders. As we step into the NGX era, we remain committed to&nbsp;achieving the&nbsp;highest level of competitiveness, both in African and global capital markets”.



Together with the new&nbsp;vibrant, modern and responsive&nbsp;website, NGX Group offers an enriched user experience.&nbsp;Accessible via ngxgroup.com, information about the group and the various subsidiaries are independently situated but featured as one website. With its centralised home page and clearly delineated tabs for each subsidiary, the new site delivers relevant content in a clean and organised way to provide visitors easy access and navigation to all the information they require.



In consolidating its group perspective, NGX Group has also rebranded its social media assets. The brand can now be found on Instagram and Twitter using the handle ‘@ngxgrp’; and on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube using the handle, ‘ngxgroup’.



The new brand identity and digital assets reflect the vibrant, disciplined, inspired and engaging personality of NGX Group and its subsidiaries. They are designed to make a distinctive and positive impression, even as the organisation continues to provide a platform for investors and issuers to meet their investment objectives.

NGX Group Launches New Brand Identity and Website

29 March 2021&nbsp;— In a historic COVID-19 vaccine procurement Agreement signed on 28 March 2021, all African Union Member States, through the&nbsp;<a>African Vaccine Acquisition Trust (AVAT)&nbsp;</a>set up in November 2020 under the African Union chairmanship of H.E President Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, will have access to 220 million doses of the Johnson &amp; Johnson single-shot COVID-19 vaccine, with the potential to order an additional 180 million doses.



Most of the supplies will be produced at the giant pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in South Africa operated by Aspen Pharma. The vaccines will be made available to African countries through the African Medical Supplies Platform (AMSP), over a period of 18 months.



Meanwhile, H.E Cyril Ramaphosa will later today tour the facilities of Aspen Pharma in Port Elizabeth with Johnson &amp; Johnson Executives to inspect preparations for the production of vaccines. The production of vaccines at the facility will be a massive boost for jobs in South Africa.



The transaction was made possible through the US$2 billion facility approved by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), who also acted as Financial and Transaction Advisers, Guarantors, Installment Payment Advisers &nbsp;and Payment Agents.



The successful conclusion of the Agreement was made possible by the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the United Nations International Children&#8217;s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), who supported the negotiation process with Johnson &amp; Johnson. UNICEF is also acting as procurement and logistics agent. The African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT) was supported in terms of advice on various aspects by the World Health Organization (WHO).



Prior to the conclusion of the Agreement with Johnson &amp; Johnson, African Member States were asked to make pre-orders for the vaccines and many countries showed strong preference for this particular vaccine. The countries will be able to purchase the vaccines either using cash, or a facility from Afreximbank. Most countries have already completed their pre-orders.



The direct acquisition of vaccines by the African countries through the AVATT initiative is part of the continental objective to achieve a minimum of 60% immunization of the African population, in order to eliminate COVID-19. This target is in line with targets set in other regions such as Europe and the United States. The international donor community has pledged to provide 27% through the COVAX Initiative (which is coordinated by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and the WHO), whilst Africa must find the rest. AVATT and COVAX work very closely together.



<a>H.E Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, African Union Champion for the COVID-19 vaccine strategy and acquisition, and Chairman of AVATT, welcomed this historic Agreement, which he personally initiated directly with the company, during his tenure as Chair of the African Union.</a>



“This Agreement is a significant milestone in protecting the health of all Africans. It is also a powerful demonstration of African unity and of what we can achieve through partnership between the state sector, the private sector and international institutions that puts people first,” said President Ramaphosa.



Professor Benedict Oramah, President of Afreximbank, said: “Afreximbank is proud to be associated with this historic and collective effort. In the midst of a very tight COVID-19 vaccine market, we are highly honoured to have been given the opportunity by the African Union to facilitate this impactful transaction under the auspices of the Africa Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT). Acting as Financial and Transaction Advisors,&nbsp;Guarantors, Installment Payment Facility Arrangers and Payment Agents,&nbsp;we look forward to beginning the deployment of the US$2 billion Vaccine Procurement facility approved by the Bank&#8217;s Board of Directors towards assisting the continent to begin to rid itself of the pandemic and rebuild its economy. This financing will support Intra-African Trade and we have already commenced engagement with our financial partners to secure the additional funding that would support procurement if Africa decides to procure the additional 180 million doses.



Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), said: “The Africa CDC recommended to the African Union that a minimum of 750 million Africans (60%) must be immunized if we are to contain the spread of COVID-19. This transaction enables Africa to meet almost 50% of that target. The key to this particular vaccine is that it is a single-shot vaccine which makes it easier to roll out quickly and effectively, thus saving lives.



<a>Mr. Strive Masiyiwa, African Union Special Envoy signed for AVAT, while Mr. Jaak Peeters, Johnson &amp; Johnson Special Envoy for COVID-19 vaccine, signed on behalf of Johnson &amp; Johnson.</a>



Mr. Masiyiwa thanked H.E. Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the African Union Commission for his tremendous support to the work of AVATT. He also thanked H.E Amira Elfadil Mohammed Elfadil, Commissioner for Social Affairs, Africa Union Commission, for her contributions to AVATT. Finally, Mr. Masiyiwa expressed his appreciation to the staff of Afreximbank, the Africa CDC, ECA and UNICEF for their extraordinary effort over the last three months in putting this Agreement together.

Africa Signs Historic Agreement with Johnson & Johnson for 400 Million Doses of COVID-19 Vaccines

Africa is set to recover from its worst recession in half a century. Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2021 after contracting by an estimated 2.1% in 2020, mainly due to COVID-19 related disruptions, according to the African Development Bank’s recently released <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/african-economic-outlook">African Economic Outlook</a> (AEO). The pandemic also caused deep scars in the financing and debt landscape of the continent that may linger on if not quickly addressed.



At the launch of the AEO, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz rightly explained how the COVID-19 pandemic caused both demand- and supply-side shocks in the continent. “It affected the demand for exports of African countries…but it also affected the willingness of people to work in some of the more exposed sectors and its effects were very disparate across different sectors.”



Following Stiglitz’s train of thought, Africa’s projected recovery will be subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty and risks, as is also pointed out in the analyses of the AEO.



Recovery prospects and risks



The most obvious risk to the recovery is the disease itself. The emergence of more contagious strains of the COVID-19 virus could derail the recovery process. Furthermore, if progress in deploying safe and effective treatment is slower than expected, governments would have to reinstate restrictions. On the upside, if COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines become accessible in the continent earlier than anticipated, the growth projection for 2021 could be exceeded, leading to a more robust recovery.



Another risk factor relates to the financial inflows to the continent. Although commodity prices have recovered somewhat from the low levels seen in mid-2020, they remain subdued compared to their pre-pandemic levels. Remittances are estimated to have dropped by nearly 10% in 2020, while tourism, foreign direct investments, and portfolio investments were halted in many countries. If these sources of inflows do not rebound, public finances in many African economies will remain suppressed, jeopardizing the projected recovery.



Social and geopolitical tensions in the region are also a major source of risk. The number of conflict-related events in the continent, including political violence, rose in 43 countries in 2020. If these tensions are not properly defused, they could result in policy uncertainty, dampening investor confidence, and could ultimately derail growth prospects.



Policies to sustain the recovery



In the end, government policies could make or break the recovery. For example, governments’ containment measures have helped accelerate digitalization in Africa, with more people adopting digital transactions, virtual meetings, e-medicine, e-commerce and other electronic platforms. If digitalization is sustained in the post-pandemic era, it would accelerate productivity and foster rapid and quality growth.



Furthermore, policymakers must not prematurely withdraw the current fiscal and monetary stimulus packages that have supported recovery. Support for the health sector should continue to consolidate gains in the fight against the virus. Effective policies to retool Africa’s labour force for the future of work must also be aggressively pursued. The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement should be used to strengthen regional and multinational trade and cooperation to stimulate shared prosperity. New public investment projects should focus on pandemic- and climate-proof infrastructure to help build economic resilience.



The impact of school closures on human capital development and the inequalities it creates between the rich and the poor, and between girls and boys, must be mitigated through targeted policies. Whenever in-person learning is possible, schools should open with the appropriate safety protocols in place. Otherwise, learning should continue using traditional media – print, radio, TV – and digital technologies such as smartphones and computers. Social safety nets, including cash transfers and in-kind support, should be expanded to include previously neglected groups in slums and informal businesses, taking advantage of the accelerated digital penetration.



Policies to strengthen good governance and structural reforms should be aggressively implemented as part of efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 crisis and avoid a looming debt crisis. African countries must eradicate all forms of “leakages” in public finances and pursue an all-out effort to harness digital technologies to propel the continent into the fourth industrial revolution and into a future that is far more resilient to economic shocks.

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