* Thai rates widen to $500-$518/tonne as drought worries loom
* Bangladesh approves purchase of 100,000 tonnes of rice
* More ships docking at Ho Chi Minh City &#8211; trader
* Indian rates stable at $398 to $403 per tonne
By Bharat Gautam
March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Vietnam&#8217;s rice export prices hit a more than nine-year high this week as fresh orders trickled in, while rates for the Indian variety held near a one-month peak on healthy demand from buyers in other Asian countries and Africa.
Vietnam&#8217;s 5% broken rice &lt;RI-VNBKN5-P1&gt; prices rose to $515-$520 per tonne on Thursday, their highest since December 2011, from $510-$515 last week.
&#8220;Demand is picking up and we&#8217;re seeing more ships docking at Ho Chi Minh City port for rice loading,&#8221; said a trader, adding that: &#8220;prices are expected to stay high as global demand for the grain is still strong amid the coronavirus pandemic.&#8221;
Traders said on Wednesday the Vietnam Southern Food Corp had won a contract to export 50,000 tonnes of 5% broken rice to Bangladesh, which is traditionally the world&#8217;s third-biggest rice producer but has turned to imports after repeated floods.
A food ministry official in Bangladesh said the country had approved the purchase of 100,000 tonnes of rice, 50,000 tonnes each from India and Vietnam.
In top rice exporter India, prices for the 5% broken parboiled variety were unchanged at their highest since mid-February, at $398-$403 per tonne.
&#8220;Buyers have increased purchases for April and May shipments,&#8221; said an exporter based at Kakinada in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
Thailand&#8217;s benchmark 5% broken rice was offered at $500-$518 a tonne, versus $505-$513 last week.
Some traders attributed the price change to a fluctuation in the exchange rate. The baht has dipped 2.9% versus the U.S. dollar since the start of the month.
Others who quoted prices higher than last Thursday said export rates reflected a rise in domestic prices, which they attributed to tighter domestic supply concerns on anticipation of drought.
&#8220;There could be less supply this year, so stockpiling has pushed up domestic prices,&#8221; a trader said. (Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai, Khanh Vu in Hanoi, Patpicha Tanakasempipat in Bangkok and Ruma Paul in Dhaka; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

ASIA RICE-Vietnam rates scale more than 9-year high on strong demand

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) – South Africa’s central bank left its repo rate unchanged at 3.5% in a unanimous decision on Thursday, saying that overall risks to the inflation outlook appeared to be balanced in the near and medium term.



The Reserve Bank (SARB) has now kept rates on hold at its last four meetings, resisting pressure to match rate hikes by other emerging market central banks.



The decision was in line with a Reuters poll last week, where all but one of the 25 economists polled expected unchanged rates.



South Africa’s consumer inflation rate slowed to 2.9% in February, a touch below consensus, its lowest in eight months and below the central bank’s target range of between 3% and 6%



Subdued price-growth has been largely due to weak economic activity, with Africa’s most advanced economy shrinking by a record 7% last year.



The bank said it sees gross domestic product of 3.8% in 2021, up from its January forecast of 3.6%, and inflation averaging 4.3%, up from January’s forecast of 4%.



Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the pace of economic recovery would depend on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the appearance of a likely third wave of infections. He said lower inflation, seen below the mid-point its range, supported accommodative rates.



“The overall risks to the inflation outlook appear to be balanced. A more appreciated nominal exchange rate in recent months, and generally low pass-through, is expected to continue to moderate some inflationary pressure,” said Kganyago.



“Unless the risks outlined earlier materialise, inflation is expected to be well contained in 2021, before rising to around the midpoint of the inflation target range in 2022 and 2023.” 



(Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana Editing by Gareth Jones, Kirsten Donovan)

Closing Day Of The World Economic Forum (WEF) 2020

South African central bank holds repo rate at 3.5%

By Emma Farge
GENEVA, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; African elephants living in forests and savannas are increasingly threatened with extinction, the Red List of species in trouble showed on Thursday, as conservationists called for an urgent end to poaching.
The new assessments by the International Union for Conservation of Nature underscore the persistent pressures faced by the two species of elephants in Africa due to poaching for ivory and human encroachment.
&#8220;We must urgently put an end to poaching and ensure that sufficient suitable habitat for both forest and savannah elephants is conserved,&#8221; said Bruno Oberle, IUCN Director General.
The Swiss-based body&#8217;s latest survey said the savanna elephant was &#8220;endangered&#8221; and the much smaller, lighter forest elephant was &#8220;critically endangered&#8221; &#8211; its highest category before extinction in the wild.
Previously IUCN had treated both elephants together which it considered as &#8220;vulnerable&#8221; but opted to separate them following genetic evidence that they are different species.
The IUCN cited data showing that the populations of Africa&#8217;s savanna elephants found in a variety of habitats had decreased by at least 60% over the last 50 years while the number of forest elephants found mostly in Central Africa had fallen by 86% over 31 years.
Combined, around 415,000 remain, it said.
Despite the overall decline, some populations of forest elephants were rebounding due to successful conservation measures such as those taken by Gabon and Republic of Congo. In Southern Africa&#8217;s Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, savanna elephant numbers were also stable or growing, IUCN said.
IUCN&#8217;s latest assessment &#8211; the first of three annual updates &#8211; assessed 134,425 species of plants, fungi and animals of which more than a quarter are threatened with extinction. (Reporting by Emma Farge; Editing by Nick Macfie)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

African elephants face growing risk of extinction – Red List

* European shares extend losses, down 0.8%
* Cineworld slumps on plans to raise debt ceiling
* Giant container ship stranded in Suez Canal
* U.S. stock futures turn negative
March 25 &#8211; Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com


DEFICITS AND THE DOLLAR (1252 GMT)
The United States has just posted its widest current account deficit since 2008, at 3.1% of GDP. The $1.9 trillion stimulus package (and talk of another $3 trillion in infrastructure spending) should further blow out its &#8220;twin&#8221; current account and budget deficits.
FX markets have been aflutter for months, betting the deficits will pummel the dollar. But instead such bets have taken a hit as the greenback has rallied 3% year-to-date.
Stephen Jen, CIO of the Eurizon SLJ fund and the proponent of the Dollar Smile thesis, is not surprised, however.
A reminder here of what the Dollar Smile theory is about. Suggested by Jen years ago when he was an economist at Morgan Stanley, it holds that whenever the U.S. economy outperforms or lags others, the dollar strengthens. Regardless of deficits or valuations.
But when the US economy runs with the rest of the world, the dollar becomes vulnerable. We wrote here https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-dollar-idUSKBN2A517V on the subject recently.
If Jen&#8217;s theory is valid, the dollar could strengthen as the U.S. economy pulls ahead of others. And the current account gap? It simply doesn&#8217;t matter, Jen says, adding:
&#8220;The ratio of global stock of assets to GDP is now more than 10 times. A U.S. current account deficit of 5% of GDP would require merely 0.1% of global liquid assets to finance.&#8221;
Jen reminds us investors shrugged off U.S. deficits in the 1980s, when high Fed rates boosted the dollar so much, it led to the 1985 Plaza Accord where countries agreed measures to weaken the greenback.
And while deficits do matter for developing countries, they are less important for one which prints the world&#8217;s reserve currency, many argue.
Oliver Allen at Capital Economics says while positive risk appetite is a catalyst for dollar losses, the correlation has been overwhelmed by surging Treasury yields.
Yields have slipped this week but Allen points out that unlike other central banks in Japan and the eurozone, the Fed seems less inclined to act against higher yields.
(Sujata Rao)
*****


THE (PRICEY) COST OF THE SUEZ CANAL BLOCKAGE (1133 GMT)
A vessel almost as long as the Empire State Building is high is blocking traffic in one of the world&#8217;s busiest shipping channels for oil and other products, pushing down shares of top shipping companies.
AP Moller-Maersk stocks fell about 9.4%, while Hapag Lloyd shares dipped 16.5% this week as efforts to dislodge the 400 m (430 yard) long container vessel that has blocked The Suez Canal continued for a third day.
The incident is proving to be pricey for the industry, with Saxo Bank estimating that there’s almost $10 billion worth of daily marine traffic halted by The Ever Given vessel, owned by Japanese ship-owner Shoei Kisen.
Reports suggests it could even take weeks to free the waterway from the vessel that is now blocking transit in both directions through the busy shipping channel linking Asia and Europe.
ING says ship-owners will be forced to decide whether to wait out the clearing of the stuck vessel or to go around the Cape of Good Hope.
&#8220;The Suez Canal is a vital point for global trade, including energy markets,&#8221; they say citing that around 10% of global seaborne oil trade and around 8% of global LNG trade passes through the canal.
Despite the supply difficulties, oil prices are falling as a new round of coronavirus restrictions in Europe revived worries about demand.
But &#8220;clearly, the longer this disruption lasts the more likely we see refiners/buyers having to turn to the spot market to ensure supply from elsewhere,&#8221; ING says.

(Joice Alves)
******


WHEN COVID RESTRICTIONS SUPPORT HIGH YIELDS (1106 GMT)
The third wave of the pandemic is messing up also corporate credit, with investment grade suffering from more downgrades, while high yield bonds continue their positive momentum.
The high yield (HY) segment, “which is heavily exposed to the manufacturing cycle, is benefiting from the ongoing mini boom in the sector,” BofA analysts say, recalling that German PMI manufacturing hit a record high this month.
Besides, rating agencies may have rushed to excessively downgrade HY-rated firms last year, so the year-to-date upgrades could be driven by a &#8220;balancing act&#8221;, restoring the fair credit rating of some issuers, they add.
The HY segment which is now recording “its fastest start to an upgrade cycle ever,” is likely to continue its positive momentum in the next few months.
But investment grade (IG) debt owners, concerned by a new wave of downgrades triggered by new lockdowns, should keep calm, as the long-awaited European credit rating upgrade cycle “has not fully started yet.”
A meaningful acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the lifting of economic restrictions “will allow a broad and sustained wave of upgrades across all European credit markets.”
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****



WHAT&#8217;S HOT (0929 GMT)
As spring kicked in with much of the Continent confined at home facing a third wave of COVID-19, the world is watching the speed at which people are getting a vaccine.
And as about 500 million doses of the vaccine have been given to people globally, Jefferies has revised its coverage to identify the European stocks with potential to surprise in the next fiscal year.
Bearing in mind that &#8220;the pace of vaccinations by region remains the single biggest determinant of the recovery trajectory,&#8221; Jefferies analysts say.
Earnings positive vibes could come from the following five names as the market has yet to price in a full earnings recovery on these Buy rated companies: ABI, BBVA, Jet2, SAP and Societe Generale. While positive dividend surprises could be seen in Centamin , Glencore and Travis Perkins.
Here is a list of Jefferies recommendations:
(Joice Alves)
*****

GOOD MORNING BROKEN CORRELATIONS! (0838 GMT)
European bourses have opened in the red in a session which is already loaded with contradictions, broken correlations and unusual patterns.
First and foremost, it&#8217;s worth noting that while the STOXX 600 is down about 0.2% in early trading, Wall Street futures are still trading in the black, 0.3% for the S&amp;P and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. It&#8217;s worth noting that S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5% ahead of close yesterday.
Second, while PMIs are one of the key indicators watched by equity strategists, it&#8217;s fair to say that yesterday&#8217;s good surprise had little positive effect.
Looking at oil prices, it&#8217;s another weird one with prices edging down despite the Suez Canal being blocked and disrupting part of the oil trade. Rising Covid cases might be weighing?
So quite counter intuitively, the oil and gas sector is the worst performing one, losing 1.3% at the moment.
Also while growth and tech stocks had been tracking U.S. Treasury yield, the correlation seems broken at the moment if you look at the Nasdaq which yesterday fell along borrowing costs.
There&#8217;s no spillover it seems from the overnight fall of Chinese tech shares due to concerns some may have to delist from U.S. markets.
Today in Europe, the tech sector is down 0.2%, which is just a tad lower than the broader market.
What seems to be the market focus today is how Europe deals with the third wave of the pandemic and whether a vaccine war with the UK can be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)
*****










COVID, MISSILES AND TANKER TAILBACKS (0816 GMT)
Plenty to chew over in what&#8217;s shaping up to be a busy session.
First to note is a sharp fall in dual-listed Chinese company shares after the U.S. securities regulator adopted measures that would kick foreign companies off American stock exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing standards.
Another reason for markets to stay in risk-off mode perhaps was North Korea which launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan. All that weighed on stocks earlier in Asia and now European stock futures are a tad softer.
But the session looks set to brighten up as U.S. equity futures point to a higher open for Wall Street.
They might seek some reassurance from the host of central bankers due to speak later in the day, including the ECB&#8217;s Christine Lagarde. The Swiss National Bank also meets and should keep interest rates at -0.75%, where it&#8217;s been for over six years. Central banks meet in South Africa and Mexico too.
Vaccine rollouts and supplies could be high on the agenda at an EU summit later on. The bloc on Wednesday tightened its oversight of coronavirus vaccine exports, giving it greater scope to block shipments to countries with higher inoculation rates such as Britain.
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a U-turn over imposing a full 5-day lockdown over Easter, concerns about the euro area economy continue to pressure the euro, which is languishing near 4-month lows around $1.18.
Those worries also pulled crude prices more than 1% lower despite the oil tanker tailbacks caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday: &#8211; ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, and Bank of England governor Andre Bailey, participate in a virtual central bank event hosted by BIS. &#8211; Sweden&#8217;s Ingves, Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ECB’s Weidman, ECB&#8217;s Villeroy de Galhau, New York Fed&#8217;s Williams also due to speak. &#8211; U.S. Treasury to auction 7-year bonds; 5-year bonds sold Wednesday with a sold bid (Full Story) &#8211; Italy to launch BTP short-term, a new government bond that will replace CTZ notes &#8211; Final iteration of US Q4 GDP

(Dhara Ranasinghe)
*****


ALONE IN THE RED (0641 GMT)
European futures are currently trading in the red at the same pace as their Wall Street peers are cruising in the black: that&#8217;s about 0.2% give or take.
Tension is building up ahead of the virtual summit at which EU&#8217; leaders will discuss new rules which would allow the bloc vaccine shipments to countries which are not sharing doses they produce.
The threat of a vaccine war adds up to concerns about Europe&#8217;s sluggish vaccination campaign and the new round of lockdowns implemented to keep the third wave of COVID-19 infection under control.
Among other factors weighing on the market today is the selloff in Chinese technology shares due to concerns they could be de-listed from U.S. bourses.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

LIVE MARKETS-Deficits and the dollar

LUSAKA, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Zambia and Uganda&#8217;s currencies are expected to weaken under the pressure of the U.S. dollar next week as Nigeria and Tanzania&#8217;s hold steady.

ZAMBIA
The kwacha will likely continue trading under pressure from the dollar next week due to continued high demand for hard currency and a diminished supply.
On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa second largest copper producer down at 22.0100 per dollar from 21.9800 at the close of business last Thursday.
&#8220;It still remains anchored on our high level of indebtedness and the need for imports, such as fuel and agriculture inputs,&#8221; independent financial analyst Maambo Hamaundu said.
Zambia&#8217;s debt includes around $3 billion in outstanding Eurobonds and another $3 billion owed to China and Chinese entities. Tensions between those two groups of creditors have so far stymied attempts to restructure Zambia&#8217;s debt.

UGANDA
The Ugandan shilling is seen mildly weakening next week because of demand pressure from merchandise importers.
At 0944GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,660/3,670, unchanged from last Thursday&#8217;s close.
&#8220;As usual, some merchandise importers are anticipated to be active on the buying side,&#8221; a trader at one commercial bank said in reference to end of month demand.
He said the local currency will likely oscillate between 3,660-3,685 against the dollar.
NIGERIA
The naira is seen unchanged next week after the central bank governor this week denied it was changing its currency regime to a flexible exchange rate rather than a pegged one.
The currency eased slightly to 486 per dollar on the black market on Thursday, from 485 naira a week ago.
It traded within a range of 407 to 410 naira on the spot market but remained flat on the official market backed by the central bank at 381 naira since last July.
Dollar shortages have plagued Nigeria as COVID-19 weakened oil prices. The central bank has maintained a currency regime that has created multiple quotes on the naira and deterred foreign investment.

TANZANIA
Tanzania&#8217;s shilling is expected to hold steady next week as traders delay taking positions while monitoring for possible policy changes from the new president Samia Suluhu Hassan.
On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,314/2,324, the same levels recorded a week earlier.
&#8220;We are waiting to see if the new president will employ any policy changes that will strengthen the currency,&#8221; an FX trader in one of the commercial banks in Dar es Salaam said.
Hassan took over as president last Friday after the death of John Magufuli, urging the east African country to look forward with hope and confidence. (Reporting by Chris Mfula, Elias Biryabarema, Chijioke Ohuocha and Nuzulack Dausen; Compiled by Chris Mfula; Editing by Barbara Lewis)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX-Zambia, Uganda currencies under pressure

LJUBLJANA, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Slovenia&#8217;s superb 1-0 victory over more heralded neighbours Croatia in World Cup qualifying showed they are more than just a nation of Alpine skiers, defender Petar Stojanovic said on Thursday.
The Slovenians outplayed the 2018 World Cup runners-up on Wednesday at the start of Group H qualifying for next year&#8217;s tournament in Qatar and Stojanovic, who plays his club football for Croatian champions Dinamo Zagreb, was delighted.
It was also Slovenia&#8217;s first win in 10 competitive and friendly games against Croatia, having suffered six defeats in the previous nine, offering some rare local bragging rights to a country more famed for producing skiers, such as double Olympic gold medallist Tina Maze.
&#8220;We&#8217;ve been told many times that we are just a skiing nation but we showed that we have a great national soccer team too,&#8221; the 25-year-old right back was quoted as saying by Croatia&#8217;s Index website (www.index.hr).
&#8220;It&#8217;s fantastic to start the qualifiers with a win against the previous World Cup&#8217;s runners-up and now we must keep up the good work.&#8221;
Slovenia, a nation of two million which gained independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991, last qualified for the World Cup in 2010 in South Africa when they narrowly missed out on a place in the knockouts.
The victory over Croatia completed a memorable week for Stojanovic, who featured in Dinamo&#8217;s stunning 3-2 aggregate win over Tottenham Hotspur in their last-16 Europa League tie last Thursday.
Having stifled Tottenham&#8217;s forwards in the 3-0 return leg win, when Croatia winger Mislav Orsic bagged a hat-trick, Stojanovic brought his Dinamo team mate back down to earth on Wednesday with another superb display.
&#8220;Saying that I am delighted would be an understatement because winning a game for Slovenia is a special feeling and notably so against a team of Croatia&#8217;s quality,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;Hats off to (Croatia&#8217;s) Orsic and Ivan Perisic, they are outstanding players and I could not have contained them on my flank without my team mates&#8217; help. We always put our bodies on the line for each other.&#8221;
Slovenia next visit Russia on Saturday and Cyprus on Tuesday and Stojanovic stressed they needed to avoid the early jitters they had against the Croatians.
&#8220;The first thing the coach told us after the match is that we must not repeat the poor start to the game that we had against Croatia,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;It was a whole lot of respect for the Croatians, but we have a big heart and we fear no one.&#8221;
(Writing by Zoran Milosavljevic; Editing by Toby Davis)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Soccer-We are more than just skiers, says Slovenia’s Stojanovic

(The host is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Rob Cox
ZURICH, March 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) &#8211; President Tayyip Erdogan’s abrupt firing of a third central bank governor forced investors to contemplate whether this might precipitate a run on financial assets in other developing markets, including South Africa. Breakingviews columnists discuss the implications.
Listen to the podcast https://bit.ly/3soEhnn
On Twitter https://twitter.com/rob1cox

&#8211; For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on
&#8211; SIGN UP FOR BREAKINGVIEWS EMAIL ALERTS http://bit.ly/BVsubscribe (Editing by Freddie Joyner and Oliver Taslic)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

BREAKINGVIEWS-Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s Crop Estimates Committee released its latest crop estimates on Thursday is a breakdown of the data. SUMMER CROPS &#8211; SECOND PRODUCTION AND REVISED AREA PLANTED FORECAST FOR 2021 SEASON 2021 PREVIOUS 2020 ESTIMATE White Maize Area 1,691,900 ha 1,682,400 ha 1,616,300 ha Production 8,795,890 T 8,799,360 T 8,547,500 T Yellow Maize Area 1,063,500 ha 1,068,500 ha 994,500 ha Production 7,125,900 T 7,049,600 T 6,752,500 T Total Maize Area 2,755,400 ha 2,750,900 ha 2,610,800 ha Production 15,921,790 T 15,848,960 T 15,300,000 T Sunflower Seed Area 477,800 ha 474,800 ha 500,300 ha Production 696,290 T 712,940 T 788,500 T Soya Beans Area 827,100 ha 826,500 ha 705,000 ha Production 1,728,150 T 1,620,900 T 1,245,500 T Ground Nuts Area 38,550 ha 40,050 ha 37,500 ha Production 57,900 T 58,425 T 50,080 T Sorghum Area 49,200 ha 46,200 ha 42,500 ha Production 187,670 T 170,590 T 158,000 T Dry Beans Area 48,890 ha 51,990 ha 50,150 ha Production 62,117 T 65,467 T 64,800 T (Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg Editing by Nqobile Dludla) 
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

TABLE-South Africa’s 2020/2021 crop estimates

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; South African farmers to harvest 4% more maize in the 2020/2021 season compared with the previous season as favourable weather conditions boosted yields, the government&#8217;s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said on Thursday.
The CEC estimates the 2021 harvest at 15.922 million tonnes- its second highest crop on record- up from the 15.300 million tonnes harvested last season.
The forecast, the CEC&#8217;s second for the season, expects the 2021 maize crop to be 0.5% higher than its February estimate of 15.849 million tonnes.
The harvest is expected to consist of 8.796 million tonnes of white maize, used for human consumption, and 7.126 million tonnes of yellow maize, used mainly in animal feed, to have been planted.
The governments estimate is slightly lower than a Reuters poll of five traders and analysts that pegged the staple crops output at 16.289 million tonnes. (Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg Editing by Nqobile Dludla)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

South Africa’s 2021 maize harvest forecast to rise 4% on favourable weather

SINGAPORE, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Middle East crude benchmarks Oman and Dubai remained rangebound on Thursday, while Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) deepened its supply cuts to Asia in June. ADNOC plans to cut crude oil supplies to Asian customers in June to 10% to 15%, from 5% to 15% in May, several sources with knowledge of the matter said. The supply reduction will apply to the four grades of crude that ADNOC sells to Asia, namely Murban, Das, Umm Lulu and Upper Zakum, they said. ADNOC&#8217;s supply reduction was aimed at supporting the market, one of the sources said. &#8220;Apparently the market is very fragile,&#8221; the source said. Destocking activities and refinery maintenance in Asia have dampened Asia&#8217;s demand for incremental supplies from Europe, Africa and the United States, industry sources said. As a result traders were forced to sharply reduce prices for spot cargoes loading in April and May from Europe, Africa and the United States for delivery to Asia. Lockdowns in Europe have also reduced demand, they said. WINDOW Cash Dubai&#8217;s premium to swaps rose 29 cents to $1.40 a barrel. PetroChina will receive a May-loading cargo of Upper Zakum crude from Unipec and an Oman crude cargo from Vitol following the trades. Seller-Buyer Price Unipec-PetroChina (Oman) 62.40 PetroChina-Shell 62.25 Hengli-PetroChina 62.40 Reliance-PetroChina 62.40 Vitol-PetroChina 62.40 Lukoil-PetroChina 62.40 Unipec-PetroChina 62.40 Hengli-PetroChina 62.40 Vitol-PetroChina 62.40 Unipec-PetroChina (Oman) 62.25 Unipec-PetroChina (Oman) 62.40 PRICES ($/BBL) CURRENT PREV SESSION DME OMAN 62.21 61.10 DME OMAN DIFF TO DUBAI 1.21 1.26 CASH DUBAI 62.40 60.95 TENDERS Russia&#8217;s Gazpromneftegaz has sold an ESPO crude cargo loading in May 1-10 to Unipec at a premium of $1-$1.50 a barrel to Dubai quotes, a trader said. NEWS A container ship blocking the Suez Canal like a &#8220;beached whale&#8221; sent new shockwaves through global trade on Thursday as officials stopped all ships entering the channel and the salvage company said it may take weeks to free. China&#8217;s national offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC Ltd 0883.HK reported a 59% plunge in 2020 profit, hitting the lowest since 2017, as the coronavirus pandemic whacked energy prices and hammered fuel consumption. For crude prices, oil product cracks and refining margins, please click on the RICs below. Brent Dubai DME Oman Brent/Dubai EFS &lt;DUB-EFS-1M&gt; PRODUCT CRACKS Fuel oil crack Gasoil crack Naphtha crack &lt;NAF-SIN-CRK&gt; Complex refining margins (Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) 
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rangebound; ADNOC deepens supply cuts in June

March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York&#8217;s SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.2% on Wednesday from Tuesday, while holdings of the largest silver-backed ETF, New York&#8217;s iShares Silver Trust, fell 0.6% during the same period. Exchange-traded funds, the most widely recognized type of ETP, back each security issued with physical stocks of a given commodity, creating a product they say is free from counterparty risk. Name New Holdings Date Prev Holdings Prev Abs Change % chg YTD Abs (OZ) (OZ) (OZ) Change (OZ) GOLD SPDR Gold Trust 33,534,534.6 Mar 24 33,609,494.0 Mar 23 -74,959.5 -0.22% -4,105,771.3 COMEX Gold Trust 16,320,008.8 Mar 24 16,322,867.1 Mar 23 -2,858.3 -0.02% -561,642.8 ETF Securities gold (ex-US) 9,293,742.4 Nov 30 9,293,742.4 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Gold ** 5,466,221.5 Mar 19 5,497,364.1 Mar 12 -31,142.6 -0.57% -131,568.0 Sprott Physical Gold Trust 2,604,200.0 Mar 24 2,604,200.0 Mar 23 0.0 0.00% 28,980.0 ETFS Physical Swiss Gold 844,902.3 Jan 24 844,902.3 Jan 24 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ABSA &#8211; NewGold ETF 634,341.3 Mar 24 636,221.1 Mar 23 -1,879.8 -0.30% 10,665.9 Total 68,697,950.9 68,808,791.0 -110,840.2 -0.16% -4,759,336.2 SILVER iShares Silver Trust 582,596,984.0 Mar 24 585,846,244.0 Mar 23 -3,249,260.0 -0.55% 23,881,101.6 Sprott Physical Silver 130,234,711.0 Mar 24 129,834,611.0 Mar 23 400,100.0 0.31% 39,126,056.0 ETF Securities silver ex-US 100,389,761.6 Nov 30 100,389,761.6 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Silver 94,280,964.8 Feb 12 94,280,964.8 Feb 12 &#8212; &#8212; 836,883.9 ETFS Physical Silver Shares 22,908,298.3 Mar 20 22,908,298.3 Mar 20 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; Total 930,410,719.7 933,259,879.7 -2,849,160.0 -0.31% 187,142,101.4 PLATINUM ETFS Physical Platinum Shares 738,343.9 Mar 20 738,343.9 Mar 20 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ABSA &#8211; NewPlat ETF 689,119.7 May 28 689,119.7 May 28 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ETF Securities platinum ex-US 617,330.8 Nov 30 617,330.8 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Platinum 430,400.0 Feb 12 430,400.0 Feb 12 &#8212; &#8212; 7,145.5 Total 2,475,194.4 2,475,194.4 0.0 0.00% 2,051,939.9 PALLADIUM InvestPalladium ETF # 142,113.5 Mar 25 142,113.5 Mar 25 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ETFS Physical Palladium Shares 129,466.6 Mar 20 129,466.6 Mar 20 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ETF Securities palladium ex-US 111,915.0 Nov 30 111,915.0 Nov 30 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; ZKB Physical Palladium 77,944.9 Feb 12 77,944.9 Feb 12 &#8212; &#8212; -64.3 ABSA &#8211; NewPalladium ETF **** 26,336.7 May 28 26,336.7 May 28 &#8212; &#8212; &#8212; Total 487,776.7 487,776.7 0.0 0.00% 409,767.5 The figures above are those reported to Reuters by the organizations involved by telephone or email on the date shown, or those that are publicly available on their websites. ** ZKB physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium funds are fully backed by physical precious metal and investors are entitled to physical delivery of them. *** Shareholders in the GAM Gold fund can elect to hold &#8220;A class&#8221; shares, which are fully backed by physical gold. Investors in that class are entitled to physical delivery of the precious metal. Investors may also elect to hold &#8220;AX&#8221; class shares, which are fully backed by physical gold. Investors in that class are not entitled to physical delivery of the precious metal. **** Absa Capital&#8217;s NewPalladium Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was listed on March 27, 2014 and is fully backed with South African palladium. # Standard Bank&#8217;s AfricaPalladium ETF, South Africa&#8217;s first listed palladium exchange traded fund, debuted on March 24, 2014. 
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

TABLE-Holdings of SPDR Gold, iShares Silver fall

* European shares fall 0.4%
* Cineworld slumps on plans to raise debt ceiling
* Giant container ship stranded in Suez Canal
* U.S. stock futures edge up
March 25 &#8211; Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
THE (PRICEY) COST OF THE SUEZ CANAL BLOCKAGE (1133 GMT)
A vessel almost as long as the Empire State Building is high is blocking traffic in one of the world&#8217;s busiest shipping channels for oil and other products, pushing down shares of top shipping companies.
AP Moller-Maersk stocks fell about 9.4%, while Hapag Lloyd shares dipped 16.5% this week as efforts to dislodge the 400 m (430 yard) long container vessel that has blocked The Suez Canal continued for a third day.
The incident is proving to be pricey for the industry, with Saxo Bank estimating that there’s almost $10 billion worth of daily marine traffic halted by The Ever Given vessel, owned by Japanese ship-owner Shoei Kisen.
Reports suggests it could even take weeks to free the waterway from the vessel that is now blocking transit in both directions through the busy shipping channel linking Asia and Europe.
ING says ship-owners will be forced to decide whether to wait out the clearing of the stuck vessel or to go around the Cape of Good Hope.
&#8220;The Suez Canal is a vital point for global trade, including energy markets,&#8221; they say citing that around 10% of global seaborne oil trade and around 8% of global LNG trade passes through the canal.
Despite the supply difficulties, oil prices are falling as a new round of coronavirus restrictions in Europe revived worries about demand.
But &#8220;clearly, the longer this disruption lasts the more likely we see refiners/buyers having to turn to the spot market to ensure supply from elsewhere,&#8221; ING says.

(Joice Alves)
******


WHEN COVID RESTRICTIONS SUPPORT HIGH YIELDS (1106 GMT)
The third wave of the pandemic is messing up also corporate credit, with investment grade suffering from more downgrades, while high yield bonds continue their positive momentum.
The high yield (HY) segment, “which is heavily exposed to the manufacturing cycle, is benefiting from the ongoing mini boom in the sector,” BofA analysts say, recalling that German PMI manufacturing hit a record high this month.
Besides, rating agencies may have rushed to excessively downgrade HY-rated firms last year, so the year-to-date upgrades could be driven by a &#8220;balancing act&#8221;, restoring the fair credit rating of some issuers, they add.
The HY segment which is now recording “its fastest start to an upgrade cycle ever,” is likely to continue its positive momentum in the next few months.
But investment grade (IG) debt owners, concerned by a new wave of downgrades triggered by new lockdowns, should keep calm, as the long-awaited European credit rating upgrade cycle “has not fully started yet.”
A meaningful acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the lifting of economic restrictions “will allow a broad and sustained wave of upgrades across all European credit markets.”
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****



WHAT&#8217;S HOT (0929 GMT)
As spring kicked in with much of the Continent confined at home facing a third wave of COVID-19, the world is watching the speed at which people are getting a vaccine.
And as about 500 million doses of the vaccine have been given to people globally, Jefferies has revised its coverage to identify the European stocks with potential to surprise in the next fiscal year.
Bearing in mind that &#8220;the pace of vaccinations by region remains the single biggest determinant of the recovery trajectory,&#8221; Jefferies analysts say.
Earnings positive vibes could come from the following five names as the market has yet to price in a full earnings recovery on these Buy rated companies: ABI, BBVA, Jet2, SAP and Societe Generale. While positive dividend surprises could be seen in Centamin , Glencore and Travis Perkins.
Here is a list of Jefferies recommendations:
(Joice Alves)
*****

GOOD MORNING BROKEN CORRELATIONS! (0838 GMT)
European bourses have opened in the red in a session which is already loaded with contradictions, broken correlations and unusual patterns.
First and foremost, it&#8217;s worth noting that while the STOXX 600 is down about 0.2% in early trading, Wall Street futures are still trading in the black, 0.3% for the S&amp;P and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. It&#8217;s worth noting that S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5% ahead of close yesterday.
Second, while PMIs are one of the key indicators watched by equity strategists, it&#8217;s fair to say that yesterday&#8217;s good surprise had little positive effect.
Looking at oil prices, it&#8217;s another weird one with prices edging down despite the Suez Canal being blocked and disrupting part of the oil trade. Rising Covid cases might be weighing?
So quite counter intuitively, the oil and gas sector is the worst performing one, losing 1.3% at the moment.
Also while growth and tech stocks had been tracking U.S. Treasury yield, the correlation seems broken at the moment if you look at the Nasdaq which yesterday fell along borrowing costs.
There&#8217;s no spillover it seems from the overnight fall of Chinese tech shares due to concerns some may have to delist from U.S. markets.
Today in Europe, the tech sector is down 0.2%, which is just a tad lower than the broader market.
What seems to be the market focus today is how Europe deals with the third wave of the pandemic and whether a vaccine war with the UK can be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)
*****










COVID, MISSILES AND TANKER TAILBACKS (0816 GMT)
Plenty to chew over in what&#8217;s shaping up to be a busy session.
First to note is a sharp fall in dual-listed Chinese company shares after the U.S. securities regulator adopted measures that would kick foreign companies off American stock exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing standards.
Another reason for markets to stay in risk-off mode perhaps was North Korea which launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan. All that weighed on stocks earlier in Asia and now European stock futures are a tad softer.
But the session looks set to brighten up as U.S. equity futures point to a higher open for Wall Street.
They might seek some reassurance from the host of central bankers due to speak later in the day, including the ECB&#8217;s Christine Lagarde. The Swiss National Bank also meets and should keep interest rates at -0.75%, where it&#8217;s been for over six years. Central banks meet in South Africa and Mexico too.
Vaccine rollouts and supplies could be high on the agenda at an EU summit later on. The bloc on Wednesday tightened its oversight of coronavirus vaccine exports, giving it greater scope to block shipments to countries with higher inoculation rates such as Britain.
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a U-turn over imposing a full 5-day lockdown over Easter, concerns about the euro area economy continue to pressure the euro, which is languishing near 4-month lows around $1.18.
Those worries also pulled crude prices more than 1% lower despite the oil tanker tailbacks caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday: &#8211; ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, and Bank of England governor Andre Bailey, participate in a virtual central bank event hosted by BIS. &#8211; Sweden&#8217;s Ingves, Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ECB’s Weidman, ECB&#8217;s Villeroy de Galhau, New York Fed&#8217;s Williams also due to speak. &#8211; U.S. Treasury to auction 7-year bonds; 5-year bonds sold Wednesday with a sold bid (Full Story) &#8211; Italy to launch BTP short-term, a new government bond that will replace CTZ notes &#8211; Final iteration of US Q4 GDP

(Dhara Ranasinghe)
*****


ALONE IN THE RED (0641 GMT)
European futures are currently trading in the red at the same pace as their Wall Street peers are cruising in the black: that&#8217;s about 0.2% give or take.
Tension is building up ahead of the virtual summit at which EU&#8217; leaders will discuss new rules which would allow the bloc vaccine shipments to countries which are not sharing doses they produce.
The threat of a vaccine war adds up to concerns about Europe&#8217;s sluggish vaccination campaign and the new round of lockdowns implemented to keep the third wave of COVID-19 infection under control.
Among other factors weighing on the market today is the selloff in Chinese technology shares due to concerns they could be de-listed from U.S. bourses.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

LIVE MARKETS-The (pricey) cost of the Suez Canal blockage

* European shares fall 0.1%
* Cineworld slumps on plans to raise debt ceiling
* Giant container ship stranded in Suez Canal
* U.S. stock futures edge up
March 25 &#8211; Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

WHEN COVID RESTRICTIONS SUPPORT HIGH YIELDS (1106 GMT)
The third wave of the pandemic is messing up also corporate credit, with investment grade suffering from more downgrades, while high yield bonds continue their positive momentum.
The high yield (HY) segment, “which is heavily exposed to the manufacturing cycle, is benefiting from the ongoing mini boom in the sector,” BofA analysts say, recalling that German PMI manufacturing hit a record high this month.
Besides, rating agencies may have rushed to excessively downgrade HY-rated firms last year, so the year-to-date upgrades could be driven by a &#8220;balancing act&#8221;, restoring the fair credit rating of some issuers, they add.
The HY segment which is now recording “its fastest start to an upgrade cycle ever,” is likely to continue its positive momentum in the next few months.
But investment grade (IG) debt owners, concerned by a new wave of downgrades triggered by new lockdowns, should keep calm, as the long-awaited European credit rating upgrade cycle “has not fully started yet.”
A meaningful acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the lifting of economic restrictions “will allow a broad and sustained wave of upgrades across all European credit markets.”
(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****



WHAT&#8217;S HOT (0929 GMT)
As spring kicked in with much of the Continent confined at home facing a third wave of COVID-19, the world is watching the speed at which people are getting a vaccine.
And as about 500 million doses of the vaccine have been given to people globally, Jefferies has revised its coverage to identify the European stocks with potential to surprise in the next fiscal year.
Bearing in mind that &#8220;the pace of vaccinations by region remains the single biggest determinant of the recovery trajectory,&#8221; Jefferies analysts say.
Earnings positive vibes could come from the following five names as the market has yet to price in a full earnings recovery on these Buy rated companies: ABI, BBVA, Jet2, SAP and Societe Generale. While positive dividend surprises could be seen in Centamin , Glencore and Travis Perkins.
Here is a list of Jefferies recommendations:
(Joice Alves)
*****

GOOD MORNING BROKEN CORRELATIONS! (0838 GMT)
European bourses have opened in the red in a session which is already loaded with contradictions, broken correlations and unusual patterns.
First and foremost, it&#8217;s worth noting that while the STOXX 600 is down about 0.2% in early trading, Wall Street futures are still trading in the black, 0.3% for the S&amp;P and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. It&#8217;s worth noting that S&amp;P 500 fell 0.5% ahead of close yesterday.
Second, while PMIs are one of the key indicators watched by equity strategists, it&#8217;s fair to say that yesterday&#8217;s good surprise had little positive effect.
Looking at oil prices, it&#8217;s another weird one with prices edging down despite the Suez Canal being blocked and disrupting part of the oil trade. Rising Covid cases might be weighing?
So quite counter intuitively, the oil and gas sector is the worst performing one, losing 1.3% at the moment.
Also while growth and tech stocks had been tracking U.S. Treasury yield, the correlation seems broken at the moment if you look at the Nasdaq which yesterday fell along borrowing costs.
There&#8217;s no spillover it seems from the overnight fall of Chinese tech shares due to concerns some may have to delist from U.S. markets.
Today in Europe, the tech sector is down 0.2%, which is just a tad lower than the broader market.
What seems to be the market focus today is how Europe deals with the third wave of the pandemic and whether a vaccine war with the UK can be averted.

(Julien Ponthus)
*****










COVID, MISSILES AND TANKER TAILBACKS (0816 GMT)
Plenty to chew over in what&#8217;s shaping up to be a busy session.
First to note is a sharp fall in dual-listed Chinese company shares after the U.S. securities regulator adopted measures that would kick foreign companies off American stock exchanges if they do not comply with U.S. auditing standards.
Another reason for markets to stay in risk-off mode perhaps was North Korea which launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan. All that weighed on stocks earlier in Asia and now European stock futures are a tad softer.
But the session looks set to brighten up as U.S. equity futures point to a higher open for Wall Street.
They might seek some reassurance from the host of central bankers due to speak later in the day, including the ECB&#8217;s Christine Lagarde. The Swiss National Bank also meets and should keep interest rates at -0.75%, where it&#8217;s been for over six years. Central banks meet in South Africa and Mexico too.
Vaccine rollouts and supplies could be high on the agenda at an EU summit later on. The bloc on Wednesday tightened its oversight of coronavirus vaccine exports, giving it greater scope to block shipments to countries with higher inoculation rates such as Britain.
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a U-turn over imposing a full 5-day lockdown over Easter, concerns about the euro area economy continue to pressure the euro, which is languishing near 4-month lows around $1.18.
Those worries also pulled crude prices more than 1% lower despite the oil tanker tailbacks caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday: &#8211; ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, and Bank of England governor Andre Bailey, participate in a virtual central bank event hosted by BIS. &#8211; Sweden&#8217;s Ingves, Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ECB’s Weidman, ECB&#8217;s Villeroy de Galhau, New York Fed&#8217;s Williams also due to speak. &#8211; U.S. Treasury to auction 7-year bonds; 5-year bonds sold Wednesday with a sold bid (Full Story) &#8211; Italy to launch BTP short-term, a new government bond that will replace CTZ notes &#8211; Final iteration of US Q4 GDP

(Dhara Ranasinghe)
*****


ALONE IN THE RED (0641 GMT)
European futures are currently trading in the red at the same pace as their Wall Street peers are cruising in the black: that&#8217;s about 0.2% give or take.
Tension is building up ahead of the virtual summit at which EU&#8217; leaders will discuss new rules which would allow the bloc vaccine shipments to countries which are not sharing doses they produce.
The threat of a vaccine war adds up to concerns about Europe&#8217;s sluggish vaccination campaign and the new round of lockdowns implemented to keep the third wave of COVID-19 infection under control.
Among other factors weighing on the market today is the selloff in Chinese technology shares due to concerns they could be de-listed from U.S. bourses.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

LIVE MARKETS-When Covid restrictions support high yields

By Orhan Coskun and Humeyra Pamuk
ANKARA, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; When Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan last received Joe Biden on official business, in August 2016, Erdogan had just sent tanks into Syria.
Seated by Erdogan&#8217;s side on a cream-and-gold-leaf chair in Ankara&#8217;s presidential palace, then-Vice President Biden said, &#8220;We&#8217;re supportive of the operation.&#8221;
U.S. air support helped that incursion, as Washington put on a show of solidarity after a coup attempt against Erdogan the previous month; Biden visited parliament to see the bomb damage inflicted when rogue troops in tanks and fighter jets had tried to seize power.
Nearly five years on, Biden is president and Erdogan&#8217;s interventions abroad have multiplied, to the point where Turkey has a stake in many of the struggles that Biden must contend with in the world&#8217;s most volatile region. Interviews with a dozen insiders and officials from both countries show how the weeks around the coup and Biden&#8217;s visit set the stage for a new era of Turkish power projection, starting with that incursion into Syria.
Turkey has muscled its way to prominence in the Middle East, North Africa and the Caucasus. At home, Erdogan launched a purge which would eventually remove 20,000 military personnel, and started to concentrate authority around the presidency.
Leaning heavily on a close personal relationship with Biden&#8217;s predecessor Donald Trump &#8211; advisers said Erdogan used to call Trump on the golf course &#8211; Erdogan developed a vision of what one Western diplomat called &#8220;a club of strong leaders who sort out the world.&#8221;
That was a vision Erdogan shared with Trump, but not with Biden, who has publicly described Erdogan as an autocrat, and promised U.S. diplomats in February the United States would address a &#8220;new moment of advancing authoritarianism&#8221; in the world through old-fashioned diplomacy and alliance-building.
It will not be easy. Since 2016, the Turkish leader has waged three more incursions in Syria, one directly targeting Kurdish fighters allied with the United States. He has changed the course of Libya&#8217;s civil war, bought weapons from Russia, challenged the maritime claims of European neighbours in the east Mediterranean, and backed Azerbaijan&#8217;s military victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh.
At the weekend, Erdogan abruptly pulled Turkey out of a convention protecting women from violence, a move that his U.S. and EU allies said marked another backward step for human rights in Turkey. He also plunged markets into turmoil by sacking a central bank governor admired by Western investors.
Still, Turkey hopes a European Union summit this week can be a step to improving strained ties, the government says. Erdogan has also said he will seek good relations with Biden, but he insists Turkey needs to protect its interests.
&#8220;We have no eyes on any country&#8217;s land, sea or sovereignty,&#8221; Erdogan told officers at the end of a major Mediterranean naval exercise this month. &#8220;We are just trying to protect our homeland and our rights.&#8221;
Asked if U.S. support for Turkey&#8217;s earliest Syria incursion may have encouraged Ankara in its military operations, the State Department declined to comment.
&#8220;The U.S. is trying to patch together the very status quo Erdogan rejects,&#8221; said Max Hoffman, associate director at the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank which has helped shape policies of Biden&#8217;s Democrat Party. &#8220;There is obvious tension.&#8221;

THE &#8216;A-TEAM&#8217;
When Biden visited Turkey in 2016, the country was in shock from the failed coup. But Erdogan, who had long chafed against a powerful military that resisted his calls for intervention in Syria, saw opportunity in the turmoil. He described the coup attempt as a &#8220;gift from God&#8221; and an opportunity to cleanse the army.
Two Turkish officials close to him say two incidents four years apart show how power shifted to the president. When a Turkish reconnaissance plane was shot down by Syria in 2012, Erdogan wanted to send five Turkish jets to strike Syrian targets in retaliation, but was overruled by officers who said that would risk an escalation the army was not ready for.
Turkey&#8217;s defence ministry declined to comment on that account.
A month after the 2016 coup attempt, when an Islamic State suicide bomber hit a wedding in southern Turkey, Erdogan was determined to strike the Islamist group in its Syrian haven. This time, and with U.S. help, he succeeded.
Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, who served as senior ministers in Erdogan governments before breaking away to set up rival political parties, told Reuters that starting in 2016 the president sidelined the foreign ministry as well as the military general staff.
Babacan, a former economy and foreign minister, said Turkey had previously avoided direct military interventions. Davutoglu, who served as prime minister and championed a policy of &#8220;zero problems with neighbours,&#8221; said that before 2016, &#8220;opinions would be sought &#8230; We would then reach a final view and convey it to the prime minister or president.&#8221;
Those former allies said the change to a narrow circle of advisers accelerated Turkey&#8217;s more hawkish stance.
Officially, security and military decisions are taken by the cabinet and National Security Council, but three political and security officials, as well as diplomats and analysts, say Erdogan relies mainly on Hulusi Akar &#8211; a military commander held hostage in the 2016 coup who is now defence minister &#8211; as well as intelligence chief Hakan Fidan and presidential spokesman and adviser Ibrahim Kalin.
&#8220;These people, who almost always come together for foreign operations, work as Erdogan&#8217;s A-Team,&#8221; said a security official who works with the presidency.
Officials from the presidency, intelligence organisation and defence ministry declined to comment on the roles played by Akar, Fidan and Kalin, or the statements by the former ministers.

FRENEMIES
A Turkish aide summed up Erdogan&#8217;s mindset as &#8220;Turkey first.&#8221; Ankara, the aide said, was tired of scenarios where the United States or Russia &#8220;sets the rules, while Turkey pays the price.&#8221;
The 2016 operation in Syria, for example, curbed the gains of Kurdish fighters the United States had picked as partners against Islamic State. Erdogan went on to play dual roles with Moscow and Washington.
In Libya, Turkey sent armed drones, military trainers and Syrian mercenaries to drive back an assault on Tripoli that had been backed by Russia. His move against Moscow came months after Turkey bought $2.5 billion of Russian missile defence systems &#8211; a deal which in turn angered Washington and led to U.S. sanctions on Turkey&#8217;s defence industry.
&#8220;It was very evident that they were trying to exert more influence in the Middle East region and some of the Gulf states as well,&#8221; General Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. troops in the Middle East at the time, told Reuters.
Erdogan has also challenged the European Union, sending ships to explore for natural gas in waters long claimed by Greece and Cyprus. When the EU threatened sanctions, Erdogan ignored the threats.
Beyond the immediate neighbourhood, Erdogan set up military bases in Qatar and Somalia, projecting Turkish force into the Gulf and Horn of Africa.
&#8220;As these operations were undertaken, Turkey realized its own capabilities, and realized that its competitors were unable – or unwilling – to react,&#8221; said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Turkey director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
&#8220;Turkey basically had a free hand &#8230; and realized it could change the reality on the ground.&#8221;
GAME-CHANGER
Erdogan also found home-grown military solutions. His son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar co-owns Baykar, a company that pioneered Turkey&#8217;s domestic drone production. Its aircraft have helped the army strike distant opponents without risking military lives in combat, and are part of Ankara&#8217;s self-declared drive to develop an independent arms industry.
Turkey says it has used drones against Kurdish militants in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq, where deploying ground troops is hazardous. In Libya, its drones destroyed Russian air defence systems. In a campaign against Russian-backed Syrian government forces in Idlib in northern Syria in early 2020, drones helped strike three Syrian fighter jets, eight helicopters and 151 tanks, according to the Turkish military.
The scale and impact of the operations has grabbed attention.
&#8220;Even if only half those claims are true, the implications are game-changing,&#8221; said Britain&#8217;s Defence Minister Ben Wallace in a speech about the future of air power in conflict. Turkey has deployed electronic warfare, lightly armed drones and smart ammunition &#8220;to stop tanks, armoured cars and air defence systems in their tracks.&#8221;
Beyond the battlefield, Erdogan&#8217;s highly personalised diplomacy has changed the course of events. He spoke regularly to Trump, in calls that U.S. advisers said often veered off the scripts U.S. administration officials prepared.
Erdogan intensified that connection in March 2018 after Trump fired his secretary of state and national security adviser, who had been working to defuse a dispute with Turkey over Syria. The sacking led Erdogan to behave as if contact with anyone other than the president was a waste of time, said Fiona Hill, who served as senior director for European and Russian Affairs on Trump&#8217;s National Security Council.
On a call in December 2018, Trump was briefed to warn Erdogan against an operation in northeast Syria where the Turkish leader planned to target the U.S.-allied Kurds, according to U.S. officials. Instead, encouraged by Erdogan, Trump promised to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and hand responsibility for fighting Islamic State in Syria to Turkey.
That decision, later partly reversed, surprised even Erdogan&#8217;s officials, they told Reuters.
BIDEN SILENT
Erdogan has since resumed talks with Greece over their maritime dispute, toned down a war of words with France&#8217;s president and played up prospects of mending ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
But his incursions have earned him enemies, and as his inner circle has narrowed at home, polls have shown falling support for his party, which relied on an alliance with a smaller nationalist party for a majority in the 2018 parliamentary vote.
A compilation of 15 recent polls in February showed their support at 46%, suggesting he faces a battle to extend his power into a third decade in elections due by 2023.
More immediately, he faces a new administration in the White House.
Last week, Erdogan chided Biden for saying in a U.S. television interview he thought Putin was a killer, describing the comments as unacceptable and unfitting for a U.S. President.
Two months after taking office, Biden has yet to call the Turkish president. (Orhan Coskun reported from Ankara, Humeya Pamuk from Washington, D.C.; Writing by Dominic Evans; Edited by Sara Ledwith)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

INSIGHT-“Turkey First:” Erdogan’s power push poses challenge for Biden

NAIROBI, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; The first 723,000 of up to 7 million COVID-19 vaccine doses that MTN Group is donating to African countries have arrived in nine nations, the African Union&#8217;s disease control body said on Thursday.
Africa CDC Director John Nkengasong told a news conference that Ghana, Gambia, Liberia, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritius and Togo had received doses from the South African telecoms company.
Several other countries, including South Sudan and Malawi, are due to receive doses in the coming days.
MTN is donating $25 million to support the African Union’s vaccination programme. The doses will be distributed to health workers across the bloc&#8217;s 55 member states, MTN said this week.
African countries have begun vaccinating their citizens only in recent weeks after richer countries secured early supplies.
Africa is relying primarily on free doses from the World Health Organization-backed COVAX vaccine-sharing facility, which aims to secure 2 billion vaccine doses by the end of 2021. (Reporting by Nairobi newsroom, Editing by Maggie Fick and Timothy Heritage)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Nine African countries take delivery of COVID-19 vaccines donated by MTN Group

JOHANNESBURG, March 25 (Reuters) &#8211; The chairman of South Africa&#8217;s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 (MAC), Professor Salim Abdool Karim, stepped down on Thursday, the health ministry said, following a meeting of the body to mark the first anniversary of its formation.
Professor Marian Jacobs, previously co-chair of the advisory body, will take up the role temporarily, the ministry said.
South Africa has been the hardest hit nation on the continent by COVID-19, with the highest number of confirmed cases at over 1.5 million, with more than 50,000 related deaths.
The rollout of vaccines has been slow, with only 207,000 people, mainly frontline health workers, inoculated so far. The government plans to vaccinate 40 million people, or two-thirds of the population, to achieve some level of herd immunity.
&#8220;Karim had expressed his desire to return to the important work he was doing, particularly in HIV research and innovation, before his appointment as Chair of the MAC,&#8221; the ministry said.
After pausing the roll-out of the AstraZeneca vaccine, South Africa started inoculating healthcare workers with Johnson &amp; Johnson shots in a research study. (Reporting by Mfuneko Toyana, Editing by William Maclean)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Head of South Africa’s coronavirus committee steps down

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Ed Cropley
LONDON, March 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) &#8211; The Ever Given continues to block the Egyptian canal. Barring progress, shipping firms may soon have to re-route vessels around Africa, adding seven days and extra fuel costs. A year ago, with crude prices tumbling, many did that anyway. With oil dearer, it’s a painful choice.
Full view will be published shortly.
On Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardcropley

CONTEXT NEWS
&#8211; Efforts to dislodge a 400-metre (1,312-foot) long container vessel choking traffic along the Suez Canal resumed at high tide on March 25, with five tugs working to drag the vessel to deeper water.
&#8211; The Ever Given vessel ran aground diagonally across the single-lane stretch of the southern canal on March 23 after losing the ability to steer amid high winds and a dust storm, the Suez Canal Authority said.
&#8211; Roughly 30% of the world’s shipping container volume goes through the 193-kilometre (120-mile) Suez Canal daily, representing 12% of total global trade of all goods.
&#8211; Brent crude oil futures climbed nearly 6% on March 24 to $64.57 a barrel amid concerns about disruptions to global supplies. They were down 1.8% at $63.28 per barrel by 0900 GMT on March 25.
&#8211; For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on
&#8211; SIGN UP FOR BREAKINGVIEWS EMAIL ALERTS http://bit.ly/BVsubscribe
(Editing by George Hay and Oliver Taslic)
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Click For Restrictions &#8211; https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Reuters

ASIA RICE-Vietnam rates scale more than 9-year high on strong demand

South African central bank holds repo rate at 3.5%

African elephants face growing risk of extinction – Red List

LIVE MARKETS-Deficits and the dollar

WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX-Zambia, Uganda currencies under pressure

Soccer-We are more than just skiers, says Slovenia’s Stojanovic

BREAKINGVIEWS-Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

TABLE-South Africa’s 2020/2021 crop estimates

South Africa’s 2021 maize harvest forecast to rise 4% on favourable weather

Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rangebound; ADNOC deepens supply cuts in June

TABLE-Holdings of SPDR Gold, iShares Silver fall

LIVE MARKETS-The (pricey) cost of the Suez Canal blockage

LIVE MARKETS-When Covid restrictions support high yields

INSIGHT-“Turkey First:” Erdogan’s power push poses challenge for Biden

Nine African countries take delivery of COVID-19 vaccines donated by MTN Group

Head of South Africa’s coronavirus committee steps down

BREAKINGVIEWS-Suez blockage comes a year too late

News Tips

Advertise With Us

Reuters

ASIA RICE-Vietnam rates scale more than 9-year high on strong demand

South African central bank holds repo rate at 3.5%

African elephants face growing risk of extinction – Red List

LIVE MARKETS-Deficits and the dollar

WEEKAHEAD-AFRICA-FX-Zambia, Uganda currencies under pressure

Soccer-We are more than just skiers, says Slovenia’s Stojanovic

BREAKINGVIEWS-Viewsroom: Turkish trouble and emerging markets

TABLE-South Africa’s 2020/2021 crop estimates

South Africa’s 2021 maize harvest forecast to rise 4% on favourable weather

Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rangebound; ADNOC deepens supply cuts in June

TABLE-Holdings of SPDR Gold, iShares Silver fall

LIVE MARKETS-The (pricey) cost of the Suez Canal blockage

LIVE MARKETS-When Covid restrictions support high yields

INSIGHT-“Turkey First:” Erdogan’s power push poses challenge for Biden

Nine African countries take delivery of COVID-19 vaccines donated by MTN Group

Head of South Africa’s coronavirus committee steps down

BREAKINGVIEWS-Suez blockage comes a year too late

News Tips

Advertise With Us

Newsletters